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Thursday, October 6, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Gold and Silver Meeting - Madrid 2011

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 09:05 PM PDT

The Gold and Silver Meeting Madrid 2011 will take place on Wednesday November 16th. It will deal with 'Gold, Silver and the economic future'. The third edition of Gold and Silver ...


Golds New Volatility in Pictures

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 08:22 PM PDT

Bullion Vault


Healthy Correction In Precious Metals Brings Opportunity

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 06:22 PM PDT

Over the past few weeks I have alerted  subscribers that gold was due a healthy pullback.  On September 5th, 2011 I wrote,

"It's been a long run for the bullion since my firm's late January 2011 buy signal. Make no mistake, it will rise though, refreshed to make another run to higher highs. A brief retreat for gold bullion to long-term trend support would be of no surprise. Indeed, it may represent a healthy and necessary correction in what my firm views as the ongoing highway of the long secular rise. These thoughts should not be regarded as bearish analysis at all. Instead they are being presented as a technical and healthy possibility to eliminate current media-hyped precious metals euphoria and avoid buying gold bullion at an interim top."

Barron's quoted our Gold Stock Trades Premium Daily Bulletin today indicating a potential reversal after this post Fed, short term, volatile "twist".

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) gained 4.6% on the day while its small-cap minded cousin the Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) rose 5.2%. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) finished higher by 5%.

"Seasonality should play a factor here. Historically, bear markets end and bull markets begin in the fourth quarter. To those summer soldiers considering throwing in the towel, this may be a time for reconsideration," noted Jeb Handwerger, editor of Gold Stock Trades.

To read the full article in Barron's click here.

Check out my recent interview discussing the recent selloff and one gold miner making major progress in mining friendly Nevada.



RPG Update #4

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 06:15 PM PDT

On New Year's Eve I dubbed 2011 "Year of the RPG" in deference to Robert Zoellick's recent editorial in which he described gold as "a key reference point to allow people to assess the relations between different currencies." This description was so close to Freegold that Zoellick's FT editorial led us to an additional name, "Reference Point Gold" or Freegold-RPG. Throughout the year I posted


Europe to the Rescue

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 05:38 PM PDT

Gold Scents


Demand for Wealth Preservation Ensures Gold’s Retreat is Temporary

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 05:26 PM PDT

Bullion Management Services


Peter Schiff - What to Expect Next for Stocks, Gold & the Dollar

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 04:19 PM PDT

With continued volatility in all global markets, including gold and silver, today King World News interviewed Peter Schiff, CEO of Europacific Capital. When asked what to expect going forward, Schiff responded, "Expect continued volatility, but look, I think eventually the bottom drops out of the (US) dollar, not the stock market, although there are still a lot of pressures on the stock market.  Ben Bernanke opened the door even wider to QE3 when he spoke two days ago, so I think the market liked that."


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Lehrman's five-step plan for getting back to a gold standard

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 03:59 PM PDT

11:57p ET Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

TheStreet.com today gave industrialist, philanthropist, historian, and Reagan gold commission member Lewis E. Lehrman a few minutes to explain his five-step plan to return the United States and the world to a gold standard to eliminate currency market manipulation and volatility. You can watch the report at TheStreet.com here:

http://www.thestreet.com/video/11267878/5-steps-to-a-global-gold-standar...

And at the Internet site of the Lehrman Institute's The Gold Standard Now project here:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/in-the-news-video/805-5-steps-to-globa...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy Platinum Drills 120.9 Meters
Grading 1.26 g/t PGM+Au at Yukon Wellgreen Project

Company Press Release
Monday, September 26, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) has announced the drill results received from its 2011 drilling Wellgreen platinum group elements, nickel, and copper project in the Yukon Territory.

Borehole WS11-188 encountered 457 meters of mineralization grading 0.47% nickel equivalent (including 0.72 grams per ton platinum, paladium, and gold) from surface to the footwall contact. Within this larger swath of mineralization, the hole encountered a high-grade section of 17.8 meters of 3.14 grams per ton platinum, palladium, and gold, 1.03% nickel, and 0.74% copper (1.77% nickel equivalent).

The hole was drilled completely outside of current resource boundaries, between the East Zone resource and the West Zone resource that was reported in the company's press release no July 14, 2011.

The high-grade intercept located between the two resources not only demonstrates that the East and West Zone resource form a single, geologically contiguous body but also indicates that the higher-grade material in the East Zone continues to the west and at depth at Wellgreen.

For drill result tables and maps, please see the company's full press release here:

http://www.prophecyplat.com/news_2011_sep26_prophecy_platinum_wellgreen_...



Join GATA here:

The Silver Summit
Thursday-Friday, October 20-21, 2011
Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/the-silver-summit-2011/48

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2011
Hilton New Orelans Riverside Hotel

http://www.neworleansconference.com/

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Fund managers Pento, Leeb see money creation, inflation boosting metals

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 03:28 PM PDT

11:27p ET Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Over at King World News, fund manager Michael Pento thinks the Federal Reserve will lose control of interest rates and inflation, unleashing gold:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/5_Mi...

And fund manager Stephen Leeb thinks markets will be rising again upon consensus that central banks will rev up the printing presses, boosting the precious metals:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/5_St...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Join GATA here:

The Silver Summit
Thursday-Friday, October 20-21, 2011
Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/the-silver-summit-2011/48

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2011
Hilton New Orelans Riverside Hotel

http://www.neworleansconference.com/

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy Platinum Drills 120.9 Meters
Grading 1.26 g/t PGM+Au at Yukon Wellgreen Project

Company Press Release
Monday, September 26, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) has announced the drill results received from its 2011 drilling Wellgreen platinum group elements, nickel, and copper project in the Yukon Territory.

Borehole WS11-188 encountered 457 meters of mineralization grading 0.47% nickel equivalent (including 0.72 grams per ton platinum, paladium, and gold) from surface to the footwall contact. Within this larger swath of mineralization, the hole encountered a high-grade section of 17.8 meters of 3.14 grams per ton platinum, palladium, and gold, 1.03% nickel, and 0.74% copper (1.77% nickel equivalent).

The hole was drilled completely outside of current resource boundaries, between the East Zone resource and the West Zone resource that was reported in the company's press release no July 14, 2011.

The high-grade intercept located between the two resources not only demonstrates that the East and West Zone resource form a single, geologically contiguous body but also indicates that the higher-grade material in the East Zone continues to the west and at depth at Wellgreen.

For drill result tables and maps, please see the company's full press release here:

http://www.prophecyplat.com/news_2011_sep26_prophecy_platinum_wellgreen_...



Harvey Organ's: The Daily Gold & Silver Report

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 03:15 PM PDT

Gold and Silver rebound accompanied by gold/silver equities/ More concerns with Dexia


And So It Begins – The First Major European Bank Has Been Bailed Out And More Bailouts Are Coming

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 03:04 PM PDT

from The Economic Collapse Blog:

And so it begins. The first major European bank bailout of 2011 has now happened. French/Belgian banking giant Dexia has failed and both governments have pledged to participate in a rescue plan. But Dexia will not be the last major European bank to fail. Even now, governments all over Europe are feverishly developing plans to bail out major national banks in the event that the current financial crisis goes from bad to worse. Instead of learning the lessons of 2008, most major European banks have continued to pile up huge mountains of debt, leverage and risk. Now the bill for that stupidity is about to be passed on to the taxpayers of those nations. But with most nations in Europe already drowning in debt, are bank bailouts really the right course of action? What is it going to happen to Europe if dozens of major banks start failing and trillions of euros are needed to bail them all out?

Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com


Disconnect

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 03:02 PM PDT

from TFMetalsReport.com:

Though the market for paper silver continues to be manipulated and schemed to the advantage of JPM and the other bullion banks, the market for physical silver continues to rapidly increase with each subsequent price decline. The message that the physical market is giving to The Cartel is clear: You may still win the occasional battle but, in the end, you are going to lose the war.

In what may seem a contradiction, The Evil Empire should be grateful for the position limits written into law by the legislation known as The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Though the CFTC has continually delayed imposition of the law, time is rapidly approaching where they will be forced to act. And, for the future solvency of the banks, not a moment too soon.

Read More @ TFMetalsReport.com


The Battered Goldbug Hotline

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 02:53 PM PDT

Bill Bonner View the original article. October 05, 2011 12:30 PM Our first call came in this morning: "Is this the Battered Goldbug Hotline?" "Yes…you've come to the right place." "Thanks…I need help. I've been battered by the nasty gold market." "You poor thing…go ahead…spill it out…here at BGH, we're ready to help." "Well, I bought gold about 5 years ago. It was at $700. Then, it went up every year…year after year. I made a lot more money than all my friends. My stupid brother-in-law bought the banking sector instead. What an idiot." "Go on…" "Well, the price went up and up…and I thought it was going to hit $2,500. I mean, it would have to get to $2,500 just to equal the rise in the '70s. And we all know that things are much worse than they were then. But instead…sniff, sniff…it fell! I couldn't believe it. And when I checked yesterday, it was down to just $1,616. And maybe it will head down now…and keep going ...


David Ganz: How gold confiscation could happen and what you can do about it

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 02:26 PM PDT

10:28p ET Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing for the Internet site of Centennial Precious Metals in Denver, USAGold.com, New York lawyer David L. Ganz, who specializes in precious metals and numismatic law, has produced a detailed and fascinating history of gold confiscation in the United Sates and commentary on the applicability of current U.S. law to gold ownership. Ganz's report is headlined "Gold Confiscation: Here's How It Could Happen -- and What You Can Do About It" and you can find it here:

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/gold-confiscation-ganz.html

Ganz's report overlaps a bit with the information contained in GATA's long correspondence on the confiscation issue with the U.S. Treasury Department six years ago. As far as we know, that correspondence contains the most recent official statement from the U.S. government as to how it perceives its powers. (At GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London in August, geopolitical analyst James G. Rickards called these powers "dictatorial.") GATA's correspondence with the Treasury Department is headlined "Treasury Claims Power to Seize Gold and Silver -- and Everything Else" and you can find it here:

http://www.gata.org/node/5606

While GATA has never been obsessed with the danger of confiscation, our general advice has been that people should amass all the gold and silver they can, find a safe planet to keep it on, and, when they do, let us know.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Golden Phoenix Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire and Reopen Santa Rosa Gold Mine in Panama

Company Press Release
Monday, September 19, 2011

SPARKS, Nevada -- Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: GPXM) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire a 60 percent interest, with an option to buy an additional 20 percent interest, in the Santa Rosa gold mine in Panama, now owned by Silver Global S.A., a Panamanian corporation.

Santa Rosa produced more than 100,000 ounces of gold from 1996 to 1998 before being closed in part to low gold prices, which are now more than five times higher.

Golden Phoenix intends to acquire its initial 60 percent interest in Santa Rosa by acquiring 60 percent of the share capital of a recently created company under the name Golden Phoenix Panama S.A., formed to hold and operate the mine.

Tom Klein, CEO of Golden Phoenix says: "The agreement establishes a solid framework from which we can advance Mina Santa Rosa to production-ready status."

For Golden Phoenix's complete statement, please visit:

http://goldenphoenix.us/press-release/golden-phoenix-signs-definitive-ac...



Join GATA here:

The Silver Summit
Thursday-Friday, October 20-21, 2011
Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/the-silver-summit-2011/48

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2011
Hilton New Orelans Riverside Hotel

http://www.neworleansconference.com/

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

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Jim Sinclair is Right – QE to Infinity!

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 12:37 PM PDT

by David Schectman, MilesFranklin.com:

They aren't leaving us any place to hide. Stock-based portfolios are tumbling. Gold and silver are falling. Real estate – well, no need to comment here. The message is loud and clear: ONLY THE US DOLLAR AND US TREASURIES ARE SAFE. It is perfectly obvious that this massive takedown in all of the markets was engineered to make a point. Once the people are frightened enough, then Bernanke can come forward and offer a solution – QE3 – without opposition. This could happen in the next 30 days. In order for the incumbents to stay in office in the upcoming election, the stock market must be propped up and the economy must be given a boost and the only way that can happen is that it is a MUST for the Fed to offer you a "lifeline" of more quantitative easing. In spite of what is happening to the metals, they are your best play, and they are your only play. That will be obvious by the end of the year. Let the shakeout continue. The sooner it is over, the better. Then, the move is back UP and with a vengeance.

Our friend, Andy Hoffman sent me the following Email complete with his comments:

Read More @ MilesFranklin.com


Michael Pento - Fed’s Time Bomb & Impact on Gold Market

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 12:09 PM PDT

Bernanke's 'Operation Twist' being lauded as a success by the interest manipulators at the Federal Reserve will soon be this country's Waterloo.


Why Have Gold & Silver Been Selling Off? Here?s the Simple Answer

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 11:52 AM PDT

Why have gold and silver have been selling off? The answer is very simple. There is a strong correlation between a strong dollar and weak commodities. The U.S. dollar is no different than anything on earth – it will always follow the path of least resistance. As the dollar grows stronger commodities sell off or become cheaper [- and gold could go down as low as $1,500/ozt. and silver down to perhaps as low as $21/ozt. before this*is all over.*Let me explain further.] Words: 650 So says*George Maniere*([url]www.investingadvicebygeorge.blogspot.com[/url]) in edited excerpts from*an article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has further edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted below*for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be includ...


Gold still stuck in a range

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 11:52 AM PDT

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Gold has thus far found willing buyers on forays down below the $1600 level. So far, so good. However, it is still effectively range bound until it can at least push past the $1680 level topside. It ran into resistance near $1650 in today's session but has been holding relatively firm as we enter early Asian trade this evening. Downside support is indicated on the chart in the region bounded by the solid red lines. It seems everytime we get the least whiff of more bailout or rescue talk coming out of Europe, up go the Equity markets, most of the commodity markets and of course, gold. That happens mainly because down goes the Dollar and up goes the Euro. Quite frankly there is nothing more disgusting to a trader than sitting around waiting for some fresh fundamental news to come out of some monetary official's mouth because you never know what the hell words of "wisdom" that they are going t...


Gold and Silver Rebound Accompanied by Gold/Silver Equities / More Concerns With Dexia

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 11:50 AM PDT

by Harvey Organ:

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold and silver rebounded nicely today. Gold finished the comex session at $1640.30 up $25.60. Silver finished the day up 51 cents at $30.31. The markets seem to rise on the slightest rumours but fall hard when the world realizes that the banks are basically insolvent. I will comment more on Dexia in the body of my commentary. But first let us head over to the comex and access the trading so you will be ready for tomorrow.

The total gold comex open interest fell by only 1000 contracts to 436,920 from Tuesday's level of 437,801. Since we are always 24 hours back, the OI is really a snapshot of the final Tuesday closing figures. Tuesday was another raid day so you can see the raid had very little effect on the longs. As I mentioned to you on previous occasions, the gold comex is becoming a physical market. The longs remain resilient and refuse to budge when a raid is implemented as the selling is orchestrated by the not for profit bankers.

Read More @ HarveyOrgan.Blogspot.com


Silver and Gold Prices are Much More Attractively Priced Now than Two Weeks Ago, So if You Want to Buy, Go Ahead

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 11:41 AM PDT

Gold Price Close Today : 1640.80
Change : 25.60 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 30.317
Change : 0.522 or 1.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.12
Change : -0.089 or -0.2%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01848
Change : 0.000030 or 0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1496.00
Change : 16.00 or 1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 577.00
Change : 11.00 or 1.9%

S&P 500 : 1,144.03
Change : 20.08 or 1.8%

Dow In GOLD$ : $137.83
Change : $ (0.49) or -0.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 6.667
Change : -0.024 or -0.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 360.85
Change : -1.92 or -0.5%

Dow Industrial : 10,939.95
Change : 131.24 or 1.2%

US Dollar Index : 78.86
Change : -0.733 or -0.9%

Turned out that late in the day rally yesterday did foretell higher prices today for SILVER and GOLD. Stocks didn't work out quite the same. Dollar took a lick on the jaw.

The Dow lumbered, stumbled, but ended up rising today, ending near the high. Still, somebody was selling all the way up.

Dow closed up 131.24 (1.21%) at 10,939.95. Five day chart -- bad as I hate to admit it -- shows a double bottom yesterday, and a rise through 10,700 support/resistance. S&P500 rose 20.08 (1.79%) to 1,144.03.

Since August the Dow has traced a sort if declining wedge, which presages a rally of some kind. Nothing to get excited about until the Dow at least climbs over its 20 day moving average at 11090. But the 200 dma is a high above the current Dow as the heavens are above the earth, at at 11,974.

I'd as soon take a cold rattlesnake into my bosom to warm him up as to buy stocks. I'd probably have a better chance of profit with the rattlesnake.

After five up-days the US dollar index paid its dues today and fell 0.94% or 73.3 basis points to 78.864.

This altereth nothing. Dollar might travel all the way back to the top of the trading channel it broke out of, today about 77.25, and remain in its uptrend. Y'all might as well get used to a stronger dollar for a while. After all, what's its competition? The euro or yen? Gold and silver are the only real alternatives, but most investors are still labouring under CBIM, or Central-Bank-Induced-Moronism, a condition that results from listening to too much propaganda from central bank heads, politicians, Keynesian economics professors, and newspapers. CBIM sufferers manifest impaired rationality and numerous delusions, such as believing they are "safe" in paper currencies, or that US government debt is "safe," or that banks really have the money they claim to have, or worst of all, that banks can be trusted. CBIM victims cling ferociously to these delusions, and may become violent if you mention the S- or G-words to them. Only cure for CBIM is a double dose of Reality Salts, which often comes as losing copious sums of money.

But I digress.

Euro today closed up 0.18% at 1.3368, a meaningless change in a meaningless market. Yen remains locked in fierce ambivalence, refusing to fall or rise. Closed today up 0.13% at 130.34c/Y100 (Y76.72/$1).

With yesterday's GOLD PRICE low about $1,595 and today's at $1,598 (before New York opened), gold appears to have made at least a temporary bottom. That gives it a platform for a (probably short) rally.

Standing above like the Great Wall of China warding off barbarian invasions is that $1,675 resistance where the GOLD PRICE has twice failed.

I said within the last few days that gold's three month chart appears to have traced out a flag, and flags always fly at half staff. That implies more downside for GOLD, but for the next few days expect a rally once again to $1,675 - $1,680.

Silver's 3 month chart also looks like a pennant or flag, but how do you differentiate between a pennant and a bullish falling wedge? You wait to see which way it breaks out. Both SILVER and GOLD PRICES are plenty oversold enough to rally for a while.

Why doubt I so stubbornly? I don't think the last shoe has fallen in Europe. I can't shake the notion we are watching Phase II (2011 edition) of the Great Credit and Banking Debacle of the 21st century. The mistakes, malinvestment, corruption, cronyism, vulturism, and unsalvageable investments run so deep and wide -- all of it enabled and facilitated by the banking system, who gets the real blame -- that only a colossal shift can get the world's economy back up on the tracks. BICBW, since after all, I am only a natural born fool from Tennessee, and not a wise central banker or New York investment banker. Shucks, I don't even wear shoes except when it snows, and they sure ain't no Guccis.

I'm not pitting my judgement against yours. Silver and gold are much more attractively priced now than two weeks ago, so if you want to buy, go ahead. I surely can be too doubtful at the wrong time, but . . .

READ THIS AND WEEP: One great barrier to rebuilding the nation and the economy is the hardened ignorance of public and politicians, and the politicians truckling to the banks. 'Twas not always so. 173 years ago our Southern leaders knew where unrestrained banking would lead, and warned of it. Read it and weep.

"If no check is put to the progress of events, no one will attain to wealth and honor, who does not receive them at the hands of the bank aristocracy….And yet the paper system is applauded to the skies, as the wing upon which England has soared to her present prosperous height…but I have thought, and still think, that we owe all these things to the enterprise and industry of our citizens, and the abundant resources with which it has pleased Heaven to bless our country.

"And this brings me to the consideration of another evil of the paper [money] system, and that is, its tendency to call men off from the most productive employments to those which are less so, or not so at all; drawing them off from the cultivation of the soil to become speculators, bank officers, shopkeepers, and livers upon their wits.

"All values are created by the spontaneous production of the earth, by human labor, by animal procreation, or by some or all of these united. The spontaneous production of the earth is, of course, the most profitable to him who can avail himself of it of any other; and the production of the earth, combined with human labor, furnishes at last the basis of all wealth.

" Every thing, therefore, which has a tendency to divert a considerable portion of a nation from agricultural pursuits, by turning them to speculation, professions, merchandise…where that nation possesses a suitable field for agricultural pursuits, has, as a general rule, the effect of diminishing the wealth of that nation. I conclude that Congress has not the right, and if it had, it would not be expedient for it to undertake the creation and regulation of a common paper medium through banks…

"Sir, I have little hope that the paper system will soon be arrested…Its swiftly moving car may roll on; but let it not drag after it every thing dear to the earthly hopes of man. Let the inflated balloon ascend if it will; but let it not, in its ascent, wrench from their foundations the institutions of our country.

(Speech of Robert Strange of North Carolina on the Independent Treasury Bill in the US Senate, 6 March 1838, Congressional Globe, 25th Congress, 2d session, Appendix, 145-54)

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.


WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.


Signs of a Bottom in Gold and Gold Stocks

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 11:04 AM PDT

With gold correcting back roughly 16% from its recent all-time highs it sometimes pays to put things in a little perspective. This is a weekly chart of gold dating back to the start of the bull market in 2001. Read More...



Gold's New Volatility in Pictures

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 10:41 AM PDT

Three charts showing just how violent the gold price has become... Only 12 months ago, the gold price was so placid - quietly making new record highs above $1300 and then $1400 per ounce - that volatility in its daily swings hit ... Read More...



Gold's Still A Great Investment, Says Frank Holmes – The Price Will Double

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 09:34 AM PDT


Gold Resource Corporation Declares Monthly $0.05 Dividend

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 09:24 AM PDT

Gold Resource Corporation (NYSE Amex: GORO) declares its instituted monthly dividend of $0.05 per common share for September payable on October 24, 2011 to shareholders of record as of October 17, 2011. Gold Resource Corporation is a low-cost gold producer with operations in southern Mexico.


Market Snapshot: Just The Facts

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 09:05 AM PDT

The squeeze continued in equities as indices of the most-shorted names handily outperformed the broad market but it was the general aggression with which equity's moved relative to both credit and broad risk assets that will raise eyebrows as rumor after refutation after no-news after denial seemed to have full optionality with all the upside (hope) and no downside (reality).

Equities and credit stayed relatively close together until the early afternoon but as we headed into the last hour or two equities were making higher highs as credit lower highs (red and green arrows). Combined with underlying relative weakness in financial stocks, net-selling in bonds, and negligible compression in their CDS, it seemed equities may just be tottering but an upper cut from Gasbag and a left cross by YHOO/MSFT and ES took off to the races - well beyond credit, broad-risk-assets, and sense.

After hours, ES pulled back closer to fair (red oval) with credit indices and context but remains considerably 'better-looking' than most other assets would infer. The last 30 mins or so (into and through the close) did see risk-assets in general limping lower even as stock futures pushed higher (we have seen stocks notably rich to context since early morning today (Europe time). While the discrepancies between IG, HY, and ES are not large (above) and between ES and CONTEXT (below) it does provide some slowing pressure for the new normal reality elevation that is US equities.

 

Most specifically in credit today indices underperformed intrinsics (on the day - though remain well ahead from Friday's close) with skews implying the Long IG, Short HY decompression trade remains crowded (IG super rich and HY super cheap here to intrinsics). This could add some more ammo to HY outperformance but given the size of shifts in the short-end of the HY space (very much wider since Friday) relative to the 5Y maturity, we get the feeling that retail is getting drawn into HYG while pros are selling down cash HY. It did seem like retail was buying while professionals were backing up the truck less. Nowhere is that more evident than in HYG relative to HY this afternoon...

We explored the technicals and less-than-bullish movements in financials bonds vs stocks earlier this afternoon - that did not change although Jimbo Gorman's leak did manage a decent ramp in the financial stocks into the close - closing +1.2% from Friday now (though Citi, Goldman, American Express, and BofA are all still lower from Friday's close in stocks). Basis trades in CDS-bond land and unwinds of arbs seemed the order of the day with very little real compression in spreads which remain hugely troublesome for a trustworthy organization in the financial services business.

The EUR just kept on going - even in the face of larger haircuts and further stress tests which appear only designed to show minimal GRE exposure which we all know is not the point. Besides with France and Germany having a tete-a-kopf about whether any bank has capital 'issues' and who will pay for it, we were rather surprised by the endless bid to the EUR (vs USD) as CHF weakened and CAD strengthened against the USD. After the close of cash in the US, the EUR retreated modestly as DXY bounced off the week's lows. AUD strength has been quite impressive too which always helps the carry trade get going more.

TSYs made it back to almost unchanged on the week (with the short-end underperforming) but managed a small rally around the close to end with yield down on the week but higher on the day. Modest flattening also came in on a day when the Twist bought TIPS.

Commodities and precious metals all bounced nicely this afternoon after being down earlier near the week's lows. Copper managed a unch-to-down-4%-to-unch roundtrip and Silver was even more impressive in its dip and rip. Gold, Silver, and Oil are all now higher on the week as Copper lags (Silver the outperformer) and Oil tests $80 once again.

The bottom-line is we are all waiting with bated breath for the 'fix' for Dexia tomorrow that will solve the ills of the world but for now we suspect the long-only equity managers that appear sheep-like one after the other on TV must be entering the peak Sisyphean phase just about now as volume lag and bearish sentiment and outflows remain and under the covers, professionals do not seem to be the ones holding this up.


The Contagion Threat

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 08:43 AM PDT

Dave Gonigam – October 5, 2011

  • No news from Europe, no movement in U.S. stocks…
  • Euro leaders attempt to put a tourniquet on Dexia: How this one bank could set off dominoes that reach Wall Street and your hometown
  • A raft of "meh" numbers on jobs and services
  • Plopping a toilet seat atop a motorcycle: Strangest attempt ever to raise consciousness about "climate change"
  • Readers sound off on the motives of Occupy Wall Street… while we dispatch a team to check out the local Baltimore version

Major stock indexes are drifting today, seemingly awaiting some sort of news from Europe.

It's as if traders are now hanging on every word emanating from some commissioner, director, functionary or spokesmodel on the continent before they make their next move.

Up one day, down the next, the mood swings like a love-struck girl pulling petals off flowers…

Europe is fixed, Europe is not, Europe is fixed, Europe is not

In the final 45 minutes of trading yesterday, the S&P 500 transformed a 1.8% drop into a 2.3% gain — averting the formal onset of a bear market as measured from the April 29 high.

The catalyst? The Financial Times said European officials are figuring out how to pump new capital into the banks.

"Although the details of the plan are still under discussion," the salmon-colored rag reported, "officials said EU ministers meeting in Luxembourg had concluded that they had not done enough to convince financial markets that Europe's banks could withstand the current debt crisis."

Love the choice of words here: It's not about fixing the problem, but convincing traders the problem is fixed.

Where, you might ask, is this new capital for the European banks supposed to come from? Guess that's one of those pesky details "still under discussion."

But we're getting a clue: The International Monetary Fund's European chief proposes today to buy European government bonds, alongside the eurozone's own bailout fund.

There were rumblings about this last week. There was even a number put out there by Dow Jones News Service, a doubling of the IMF's bailout fund to $1.3 trillion.

Hmmm… Where would the IMF come up with $650 billion on short notice? Why, from its member nations, of course.

The United States ponies up 17% of IMF funding. Thus, the latest European rescue, should it come about, will cost U.S. taxpayers $110.5 billion. That's $356 for every man, woman and child in the country.

Just as fuzzy as the plan to recapitalize the European banks is the plan to rescue one of the most sickly of those banks — Dexia.

Dexia, you'll recall from yesterday's issue, is the French-Belgian mongrel whose exposure to Greek government debt totals nearly twice its market cap. Should Dexia fall, the dominoes would extend to U.S. municipal bonds and U.S. money market funds.

Little wonder the details are yet to be worked out: Dexia has written down its Greek debt holdings by only 21%. This is at a time many banks have marked them down to market prices — as much as 51%.

Two French bank giants — Societe Generale and BNP Paribas — are in the same boat, by the way. U.S. money market funds hold roughly 20% of all their assets in the commercial paper of big French banks exposed to Greece.

Oy… The French finance minister is promising to reveal details of the Dexia rescue tomorrow.

If Dexia isn't resolved, and quickly, the trouble "could spread to other banks," says Andrea Enria, chairman of the European Banking Authority.

"Dexia is an extremely complicated file," adds Benoit Petrarque, an analyst at Kepler Capital Markets. "The fact that two countries are involved, both under pressure from rating agencies, makes it even more difficult. We are not in 2008 anymore, when you could just inject multibillions of cash."

We'll come back to that 2008 thought shortly…

"We're seeing a practical example of contagion playing out," says Jean-Pierre Lambert, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. "Investors aren't quite sure what the sovereign debt losses will be, nor where the share price should be. They are concerned about the risks and reduce their funding."

Whatever the outcome, "a Dexia rescue isn't a solution," reads a new piece from Forbes this morning, "but the beginning of a larger problem. For starters, a government bailout and restructuring could actually impair the bank."

"The key problem for Dexia in this respect is the likely significant difference between book values of many of its assets compared to actual trading levels," according to Otto Dichtl at Knight Capital. In other words, dumping assets would lock in the losses, rendering Dexia insolvent.

What's more, says Forbes, "rescuing Dexia is the start of a larger, painful acknowledgment that governments may no longer be in control of Europe's debt issues."

Dexia's liabilities total 1.5 times Belgium's GDP. No better among the big French banks: BNP Paribas' total liabilities equal 97% of French GDP.

"We face a bigger problem now and we will pay a higher price" than in 2008, says Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Fooled by Randomness.

"The structure of the problem has still not been understood," Taleb said today at a press conference in Ukraine. "We haven't done anything constructive in 3½ years. Nobody wants to do anything drastic now."

And no wonder: The big U.S. banks' eurozone exposure totals $2.7 trillion.

When Greece defaults — is it really a matter of "if" anymore? — investors will run for the exits from the rest of the PIIGS countries too. That's big trouble for the big French banks. And the big German ones. And those banks alone account for nearly half of that $2.7 trillion total.

Imagine if one of those French or German banks collapses… and the knock-on effects on U.S. shores.

This is one key to the "mother of all financial bubbles" scenario Addison describes in his latest forecast.

"This new bubble started years ago," he says, "with the government's response to the Internet stock crash in the early 2000s. Then it morphed into the bigger housing bubble… And eventually into the even bigger credit crisis of 2008."

"Now, due to the aggregate of those government actions, we're in the middle of the largest financial bubble in history."

When it pops, you need to be ready. Addison lays out a set of comprehensive solutions in this presentation.

Precious metals are perking up today in a way that stocks aren't — up more than 1% as of this writing.

Gold has recovered to $1,644, while silver has firmed to $30.54.

You can't attribute the metals' strength to dollar weakness. The dollar index is unchanged right now at 79.1.

Keeping a finger on the weak pulse of the U.S. economy, we have the following numbers to chew on…

  • Private payrolls: Up 91,000 in September, according to the payroll firm ADP. Unfortunately, all those new jobs were in the service sector — presumably low-paying
  • Mass layoffs: Up 126% in September, to a total of 115,730, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The bulk of that can be chalked up to planned troop reductions and job cuts at Bank of America
  • Service sector: Still expanding, according to ISM. This is one of those numbers where 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. The September number came in at 53. For once the "expert consensus" guessed right.

Tomorrow comes the weekly report on first-time unemployment claims, and Friday brings the September nonfarm payrolls from the statistical wizards at the Labor Department.

The White House has finally sent three trade agreements to Congress for approval. The deals cover South Korea, Panama and Colombia — the last of the three of intense interest to our contacts in Colombia during our visit there last spring.

All three were negotiated by President Bush and have been stymied by the usual partisan infighting. President Obama is asking they be passed "without delay" and Republican House leaders are promising to do just that. We'll see…

From Japan comes an, er, innovation that truly would have never occurred to us. Near as we can tell, this is not a joke…

Toto, the nation's biggest toilet maker, is launching the Toilet Bike Neo — a three-wheel motorcycle powered by human waste. "The bike runs on biogas," reports the TreeHugger website, "converted from feces that is harvested directly from the driver — who sits on the bike's toilet-styled seat."

Is that a giant roll of toilet paper on top?

Toto is taking the bike on a 600-mile tour of the country, starting tomorrow. One of the stops will be in Nakatsu, home to a boulder that's well known around the country, and uniquely appropriate for the occasion…

No comment

Here's what tipped us off that this is for real: It's a production model only, not destined for the showroom. It's part of Toto's campaign to reduce bathroom CO2 emissions 50% by 2017, in line with the Kyoto climate treaty.

Best of luck with that…

"In the mailbag," a reader writes, "one subscriber opined that the protesters should march on Washington because 'the parties on Wall Street…would not be there today if the people in Congress, the White House and the Federal Reserve had not rescued them.' The real problem is that politicians are under the influence of monied interests."

"The politicians need average Janes and Joes to elect them, but they end up serving the interests of the rich and powerful. A good symbol of that power is Wall Street. Despite the fraud that led up to the 2008 meltdown, the financial industry has managed to escape prosecution, take trillions of dollars in support and put the brakes on reform, all while continuing to draw unbelievable amounts of compensation."

"The inordinate influence of the wealthy few over our government is what needs to be addressed. That concern is at the heart of the Wall Street protests."

"For the reader who thinks that the Wall Street demonstrators have chosen the wrong location — well, they have also chosen the wrong 'demonstratees.'"

"The 'government,' from the Offal Office to the slime oozing under the Capitol dome (Congress it's called), allows the oligarchy. But they are not to blame either. Try the booboisie that elected them… Triumph to the sheeple won't change."

"Invade the trading floor(s)? Yeah the computers keep on byting. Where the hell is Stuxnet when you need it?"

"Love the protests, finally," adds another. "In your record of what happened in London in 2005, how about making it 3,500 to storm the NYSE trading floor with bats?"

"And have those Greenpeacers do it again, of course in greater numbers — that is, I mean, get good ole revenge."

"And last but not least, is it possible for Anonymous to virus those high-frequency computers, make them speed up or shut down or speed up and shut down?"

"Speak of the devil," writes another, as if in reply. "Fox published an article today saying that the hacker group Anonymous threatens to hack into the stock exchange. The article quotes some as yes and some as no, but the FBI is taking it seriously.

"Is there a difference between the Wall Street protesters and the group Anonymous?"

"This highlights another safety feature of owning gold in storage in this computer-run world: Hackers can't break into your gold and turn it into copper!"

Cheers,

Dave Gonigam
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. Baltimore's version of Occupy Wall Street set up yesterday at the city's Inner Harbor. Naturally we dispatched a couple of folks to venture out of the office to check it out. Right away, they ran into someone who said she'd read Empire of Debt

"Even though it started at noon," writes our correspondent Greg Grillot, "the vast majority of folks didn't show up until 5 or later. Which made me assume they had jobs or class during the day."

"At about 6 p.m., a few vans showed up, which we promptly unloaded in the bustling traffic. Some organization brought free food for everyone. At this point, about 200 folks were there. Mainly young, but a good amount of people in their 60s."

"My general impression is that these are the disenfranchised and disempowered. And they're (we're?) coming together to formulate an action plan. This idea is at the atomic, grassroots stage, and that's why the movement seems so amorphous right now."

"I can say that a good deal of them agreed that 1) we need to stop fighting elective war — not necessarily due to innate pacifism, but since they feel a lack of opportunity and it seems suicidal to spend so much for these wars, and 2) they want to take big money and lobbyists out of politics."

"There was an ocean of other demands, of course. But they had a messily orderly consensus vote process that they use to cover the minutiae of the protest (who's on the sanitation committee?), and I assume they'll get to the concrete demands with this process."

"In short, this nascent movement is amorphous now, but when it coalesces, it will hum like a swarm of bees."


Michael Pento - Fed’s Time Bomb & Impact on Gold Market

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 08:29 AM PDT

With stocks moving higher along with gold and silver, today Michael Pento, of Pento Portfolio Strategies, explains for King World News readers globally why the Fed has created a ticking time bomb and what the implications are for the gold market, "Bernanke's 'Operation Twist' has succeeded in sending yields on longer duration maturities to record lows. But what is now being lauded as a success by the interest manipulators at the Federal Reserve will very soon prove to be this country's Waterloo."


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Where Are Oil Prices Going?

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 08:24 AM PDT

Synopsis: 

Shifting economic conditions and forecasts worldwide, coupled with changing patterns of oil usage and development of other energy resources means that oil prices are especially volatile at present. The Casey Research energy team provides their view of what the near future may hold.

Dear Reader,

A few readers have inquired, "Why not publish more articles on the market lately; isn't there a lot going on?" There's a good reason, and it can be summed up in one word: volatility. We haven't seen a period of sustained volatility of this magnitude in years. Usually the VIX Index likes to take a jump, followed by a rather sudden drop downward. Today we're in a completely different situation, with a sustained high VIX and a market that has taken a beating but certainly hasn't crashed.

(Click on image to enlarge)

In this environment, many forecasters have already swallowed their own words a dozen times. The market jumps 250 points one day, and they predict the start of a rally. The next day, the market crashes 300 points, and the bears hit the headlines. In my opinion, it's borderline foolish to draw massive multimonth or multiyear implications from the moves of a single day in a highly volatile environment.

Furthermore, the majority of these swings have been caused by fear – or even the fear of fear – in the market. We still don't know what's going to happen in Europe. It's quite possible that one of the PIIGS will default sometime in the next month, but kicking the can down the road another year isn't outside the realm of possibility either. Check the last major spike in volatility in mid-2010. We've been in this exact spot before – only now it's more serious. Still, it's difficult to say if we're approaching the moment of truth for Europe.

What do we know, and what can we say for sure? The eurozone and in particular the PIIGS are doomed. We didn't wake up to this fact last month, like the majority of the market did. You've been reading about it for years in our newsletters. Second, gold continues to be a major trend. Even if we see a sell-off similar to 2008, the fundamentals for gold will not change. In fact, such an event would mean a big-time shopping season. Since the last market crash, gold has had an incredible performance. If the market takes another major dive, I would expect a prolonging of the long-term gold bull market, even if prices have a temporary setback. The governments of the world will be in even worse shape, and they will react like they always do… by printing more money.

Sure, interest rates are low, but world central banks can take them lower. Consider that the Swiss National Bank recently lowered its short-term rate from 0.25% to zero. If another crisis comes, you can bet that the European Central Bank is going to take rates from 1.5% to nada in a heartbeat; that's going to be good news for gold.

In short, don't let volatile numbers guide your decisions. Volatility necessarily occurs from competing visions in the market. If you're comfortable with your idea of the market and the state of the US government, stay the course and don't let the confusion of others drive your investments.


What's Ahead for Oil Prices?

By the Casey Research Energy Team

What a year it has been for oil prices. It was only in April that US-benchmark WTI crude reached a peak of almost US$114 per barrel. Now – not six months later – prices have fallen to a new 2011 low: On Tuesday the spot price of WTI crude dropped as low as $74.95 a barrel, before recovering slightly to close at $75.67. The price has not been this low since September 2010.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Forward prices provide no indication of a pick-up. European-benchmark Brent crude for December 2013 delivery is trading near $90 a barrel, compared to a current spot price of $102.18. The December 2013 price for WTI is near $82, pretty much on par with the average spot price over the last few weeks.

In addition, on Tuesday the average price of a basket of OPEC crudes fell to $99.65, the lowest price for the basket since mid-February. The OPEC basket is made up of the average price of one major crude grade from each member country.

Volatility is standard practice in the oil markets, but for prices to drop more than 30% in less than six months is more erratic than usual. As for where prices will go from here, that depends on whether one thinks the world is entering a significant recession or not. A serious recession is not a certainty, but the markets are acting as though it is, in part because current economic conditions differ so dramatically from those of just eight months ago.

Crude prices roses to three-year highs early in the year, driven by instability in the Middle East and North Africa, rising Chinese demand, bullish views from investment banks, and expectations of an aggressive US stimulus plan. Confidence was high that the recovery from the 2008 recession was real. However, those reasons for confidence are fading one by one.

The Arab Spring is still very much in action, but the most significant uprisings are now occurring in Syria and Bahrain, both unimportant oil producers. On top of that, Libyan oil production is set to resume over the next 12 months. As such, the riots and revolutions still rocking the Arab world have less bearing on the price of oil than they did a few months ago.

Chinese demand, always cited as the backstop for sliding oil prices, is weakening. For three straight months now, China's manufacturing sector has contracted… and the country is struggling to contain inflation.

The United States, of course, did not implement an aggressive stimulus plan, though Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently reminded a Europe-focused world that America is still facing significant economic issues when he said the central bank stands ready to take additional steps to boost growth. With recent data showing American incomes falling and prices climbing – both in the face of stubbornly persistent unemployment – growth remains a serious concern.

And one by one, investment banks are reining in their bullish forecasts for oil demand and global economic growth, no longer able to argue that demand from China and India can compensate for stagnant growth or recessions in Europe and the US.

Goldman Sachs, nicknamed the "permabull" for its relatively high commodity price outlooks, was the latest investment bank to join the movement and lower its oil price forecasts. Goldman now expects WTI to average $109 per barrel over 2012 – down from $123.50 – and foresees Brent crude averaging $120 per barrel instead of $130. Goldman also cut its expectations for economic growth in China, as the US and Europe order fewer Chinese-made products.

Interestingly, a recent survey found that Goldman's analysts were the most accurate price forecasters in 2011. And while Goldman's analysts cut their price forecasts, they also noted that the market has seen heavy destocking ahead of a potential crisis. As such, "If a crisis does not occur, the oil market risks running into pressing supply constraints, requiring sharply higher prices to force demand in line with supplies," the bank said.

A raft of other investment banks have also cut their forecasts – Goldman's numbers are now fairly representative of the predictions from most major banks. And OPEC leaders are also warning of the potential for oil demand to fall. The OPEC governor for the United Arab Emirates, Ali Obaid al-Yabhouni, said that while oil supply and demand appear to be largely in balance at the moment, "… there are ominous clouds on the horizon that represent a major downside risk."

So are prices going to continue to fall? Let's take a broader look at the situation. One way to describe the year in oil would be as a wild swing from irrational exuberance in the first half of the year to increasingly irrational pessimism now. The current dread about recessions and plunging oil prices is a perfect mirror of the panic in February, March, and April over the potential for supply disruptions in the Middle East to cause price spikes. At that point, the market exaggerated the risk of supply disruptions, confusing a possibility with something closer to a certainty. Now the markets are doing the same thing, but in the other direction – exaggerating the risk of a deep recession and a large drop in oil consumption.

The threat of outright recession has risen, to be sure, and in response investors are becoming more and more risk averse. However, a recession is not yet a certainty. Current indicators are mixed, generally suggesting the economies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the eurozone are struggling for traction rather than shrinking. Nevertheless, the more the markets fall, the more investors seem to be fearing an even deeper pullback. The markets are extrapolating recent movements rather than making a calm assessment of what is likely to happen in the future.

Well, any investor who expects markets to react calmly and rationally is in the wrong game. Markets portray human emotions as much as economic realities, and people are rightly very nervous right now.

The answer to all this instability lies first with Europe. Investors need to see a broad solution advanced for the eurozone crisis, including a plan for orderly defaults for Greece (now considered almost a certainty), a plan for bank recapitalization, and a plan for how the contagion will be contained. A comprehensive solution of this sort would provide markets with some confidence that Europe, while hobbled, can in time recover. With more politicians, analysts, and bankers now accepting that a Greek default and the nationalization of debt-laden major banks are probably necessary parts of this solution, there is a dim light on the horizon. It will take a long time for that light to brighten, but it is at least visible now.

If Europe can stabilize, attention will shift back to America. As other Casey writers have discussed in great detail, the problems here run even deeper than those in Europe. But a rising tide lifts all ships, so a recovering Europe would help America work through the painful changes that are necessary to sail our storm-ravaged ship to calmer waters.

That's the rational argument. The markets, however, may yet drag oil prices further down in the coming days. Then again, a single instance of positive data from Germany or China could send prices the other way, because at present emotions are the dominant force. And we all know how erratic those can be.

[Sifting through the fear pervading markets is an arduous task, which isn't helped by the flip-flopping some analysts have been doing. In contrast, Casey Energy Report is a steady source of sound information and specific recommendations, which will help every energy investor sleep better. Try it risk-free for three months.]


Additional Links and Reads

More Euro Nations Face Downgrade After Italy, Moody's Says (Bloomberg)

The ratings agencies are in a desperate game of catch-up. I can't think of a time where they were more irrelevant and behind the curve. The markets are a few steps ahead of them at every turn. The article notes that the market values Italian bonds at a BBB rating (Baa2 in Moody's system). Moody's still has the country at A2. That's three ratings above the market's pricing – hardly a calculation error. At least in 2008, the ratings agencies were wrong, but almost everyone else was wrong with them.

Occupy Wall Street: A Story Without Heroes (Ludwig von Mises Institute)

Anthony Gregory makes some astute observations about the Occupy Wall Street protests. He notes that these protestors aren't exactly a threat to Washington. In fact, they demand more government and hence will likely be useful puppets in the expansion of the state. Ultimately, their cries for additional government intervention will only deliver more of the same actions that brought the world economy to its knees. Gregory lists a few of their demands:

Although there is no single ideology uniting the movement, it does seem to have a general philosophical thrust, and not a very good one at that. OccupyWallStreet.org has a list of demands, and while the website does not represent all of the protesters, one could safely bet that it lines up with the views of most of them: A "living-wage" guarantee for workers and the unemployed, universal healthcare, free college for everyone, a ban on fossil fuels, a trillion dollars in new infrastructure, another trillion in "ecological restoration," racial and gender "rights," election reform, universal debt forgiveness, a ban on credit reporting agencies, and more power for the unions. Out of over a dozen demands there is only one I agree with – open borders – and, ironically, many on Wall Street probably favor that as well.

In my opinion, what's really sad is the distance from reality underlying some of these requests. For example, the "living wage" issue – right now, people are willing to accept almost any wage. At the moment, any job is a blessing. It's a bit ridiculous to talk about a living wage with over 9% unemployment. How exactly is anyone to bring about this desired living wage under the current circumstances?

Four Arrested in Alleged Government Bribery Scheme (Associated Press)

Earlier in the year, the press released a story of millions in cash missing in Iraq. A few weeks ago, I reported on the billions wasted from overpriced and now abandoned bases in Iraq. Now, we have a domestic $20 million bribery case involving two members of the Army Corps of Engineers. I wonder why the usual route wasn't used here: give donations to a congressman that pay for his visits to the Four Seasons Hotel, his lobster lunches, and private jets on the campaign trail. If the wars themselves aren't a good enough reason to cut off the money spigot to the military, the mishandling of the money is enough reason to curtail some of those funds.

That's it for today. Thank you for reading and subscribing to Casey Daily Dispatch.

Vedran Vuk
Casey Daily Dispatch Editor


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Currency Wars - The European Overhang - YE $2,000?

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 08:17 AM PDT


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Mining Shares Bear Trap?

Posted: 05 Oct 2011 08:12 AM PDT

From the Chart Book, and the "Hope We Don't Jinx it Again" department:  The recent attempted breakout to the upside by the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) turned into a bull trap right after we commented on the breakout in these pages. "Obviously" our commenting on it jinxed it, so we provide the comments below with a full measure of trepidation and only AFTER taking the appropriate anti-jinx countermeasures … ahem! (No we are not really superstitious, it's just a quaint icebreaker.)

As shown in the graph below, the HUI traveled below all implied support (a little), which constitutes a breakdown attempt.  As we write in the late going on Wednesday, September 5, the HUI is rallying back up to above a roughly 490 implied support line.  Nicely above it, actually.

20111005HUI 

(HUI, 1-year, daily.  If any of the images are too small click on them for a larger version.)

Continued…


As of this minute we have the makings of a bear trap (a failed breakdown).  If the HUI continues to hold and/or move higher it will mean we have seen it confound both trend-jumping bulls and bears inside a two-week period.  "You just don't see that very often."

Judging by the aggressive action in the smaller issues on our monitors, The Little Guys are also catching more of a bid, which is to be expected from such an oversold condition.  Just below is the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index or GDXJ as a proxy for The Little Guys.

20111005GDXJ 

(GDXJ, 14-month, daily)

The panic downside momentum has at the very least paused as of today, apparently, but the underperforming small resource companies sure have a long way to go to even get close to being "in the game" again. 


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