saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Does Window Dressing Really Exist?
- India Markets Thursday Wrap-Up: Sensex, Nifty Top Asian Gainers
- Jim Cramer's Latest Buy List
- Izabella Kaminska: How central banks use ETFs to keep gold down
- Gold Seasonality and a Convergence of Events at the End of November 2011
- Explaining Gold to Your Advisor
- Gold Stupidity
- Timberline Resources Drill Results Favorable in Nevada
- Trendlines Suggest Silver's Fair Value To Be in the Pre-Teens
- Polls show a majority of Americans want liberties restored and our troops brought home
- Supercharge Your Trend Following System
- James Turk talks to David Morgan
- NWO Silver Coin
- WATCH: The Hyper Report 9.29.11
- Silver price under pressure
- Stocks Rise and Fall on Wait and See
- Gold price lower as dollar gains
- Gold Buyers Rush in After Price Slump
- Central banks continue to buy gold
- Doug Casey: Buying Physical Gold and Silver
- Casey's Daily Dispatch: Peering Into Silvercorp
- Speculators washed out, metals will rise again, Fleckenstein tells King World News
- Euro Crisis Makes Fed Lender of Only Resort as Banks Chase Dollar Funding
- New Zealand: Where Stem Cell Scam Companies Get Stock Exchange Listings
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, September 29, 2011
- BrotherJohnF – Silver Update – “Saving Silver”
- Global Research TV: Engineering the Global Crisis
- LISTEN: Bob Chapman on Gold and Silver
- The Bots of FX
- China's 'resource imperialism' a risk for Australia: James Dines
| Does Window Dressing Really Exist? Posted: 29 Sep 2011 06:30 AM PDT By DIA) the week before and after each quarter ending (Jan-Mar, April-June, July-Sept, Oct-Dec) to see if any patterns form and whether or not stocks are truly pumped at the beginning or end of a quarter. After analyzing the past 46 quarters tracing back to Q1, 2000 here Complete Story » | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| India Markets Thursday Wrap-Up: Sensex, Nifty Top Asian Gainers Posted: 29 Sep 2011 06:09 AM PDT By Equitymaster: Despite the Reserve Bank of India hints at retaining its tight monetary policy stance, the indices in Indian stock markets managed to move into the positive territory and consolidate gains. Backed by buying interest in banking, IT and auto heavyweights, the indices featured amongst the top gainers in Asia in today's trade. While the BSE-Sensex closed higher by around 252 points (up 1.5%), the NSE-Nifty gained around 70 points (up 1.4%). The BSE Mid Cap and the BSE Small Cap indices, however, lost around 0.2% each. As regards global markets, Asian indices closed mixed today, while European indices have also opened on a cautious note. The rupee was trading at Rs 49.0 to the dollar at the time of writing. In the first year of its launch, Ashok Leyland expects its joint venture with Japan's Nissan to sell 55,000 light commercial vehicles. The joint venture, which was for LCVs, buses Complete Story » | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 29 Sep 2011 06:09 AM PDT By Osman Gulseven: Jim Cramer has been making tons of stock suggestions in the past few weeks, trying to help homegamers protect their money. In the Lightning Round Sept. 27, I was surprised to see that he made only four calls. However, there were no bearish calls this time. I have examined all of his stock mentions from a fundamental perspective, and added my opinion about them. I have applied my O-Metrix Grading System where possible, as well. Here is a fundamental analysis of these stocks from Cramer's September 27 Lightning Round :
(Data obtained from Finviz/Morningstar, and is current as of September 28 close. You can download O-Metrix calculator, here .) Baidu is the only good stock in the Chinese market, Complete Story » | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Izabella Kaminska: How central banks use ETFs to keep gold down Posted: 29 Sep 2011 05:01 AM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Seasonality and a Convergence of Events at the End of November 2011 Posted: 29 Sep 2011 04:33 AM PDT Jesse's Cafe | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Explaining Gold to Your Advisor Posted: 29 Sep 2011 04:01 AM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 29 Sep 2011 03:20 AM PDT Here you have it, gold sucks because of what it is backed by....nothing. :D | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Timberline Resources Drill Results Favorable in Nevada Posted: 29 Sep 2011 01:54 AM PDT Gold system may be expanding as the drills explore south toward the south adit at Timberline's Lookout Mountain project in S. Eureka, Nevada. Promising drill results (wider, higher grade intercepts) prompts immediate expansion of 30,000-foot drill campaign to 45,000 feet. An important new Timberline press release begins: "COEUR D'ALENE, IDAHO, Sep 29, 2011 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Timberline Resources Corporation ("Timberline" or the "Company") today announced significant assay drill results from its ongoing 30,000-foot drill program at the Lookout Mountain Project near Eureka, Nevada. These results are expected to substantially increase the Lookout Mountain NI 43-101 Measured and Indicated resource estimate(1) of 286,000 ounces of gold and the Inferred resource estimate(1) of 206,000 ounces of gold. Contined...
Source: MarketWatch
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| Trendlines Suggest Silver's Fair Value To Be in the Pre-Teens Posted: 29 Sep 2011 01:34 AM PDT Trendlines Suggest Silver's Fair Value To Be in the Pre-Teens By James Debevec Sep 28, 2011 1:40 pm What are commodities really worth once the Fed-induced speculation is gone? Here, a comparison of silver to its own trendline is offered in attempt to answer the question. What are commodities really worth once the Fed-induced speculation is gone? I have written a few articles that made attempts to answer this question. These articles typically had a common theme of using ratios of commodities such as gold and silver to other assets such as stocks or real estate. Today, we will take a different approach. Instead of comparing silver to another asset class, we are going to compare silver to its own trendline. The first step is to take a daily chart of silver and then create a trendline for it. Attachment 11367 The next step is to find the formula for the trendline. The final step is to make a chart of silver relative to the trendline. Here it is: Attachment 11368 There are a lot of positive aspects to this chart. We can see that overbought signals worked not only in 1980 but in 1920 as well. Silver went down by over 81% from 1920 to its 1932 low. And silver went down over 91% in the popping of the last bubble. Silver's 2011 high valuation was not far off from the 1920 peak with respect to distance from the trendline. Just when you thought the removal of the gold standard was going to cause the indicator to not work anymore, the bottom for the 2000s came extremely close to the all-time low. The November 1942 low was 51.5% below the trendline while the November 2001 low was 51.3% below the trendline. When you see this indicator trading 46%-51% below its trendline, you may want to consider investing in large quantities of silver. The bottoms are very similar to each other with respect to distance from the trendline. This is an excellent sign of a good indicator. Here are the readings at the low of each decade: Attachment 11369 As for now, it will come as no surprise to discover that silver is overvalued. The trendline suggests fair value to be $12.45. As of September 25, 2011, this indicator was still at the 94.3% percentile despite silver's recent crash. At its April 28, 2011 top, this indicator was at the 97.5% percentile behind only behind the days surrounding the 1920 and 1980 tops. Over the period of the 1920-2011, silver annualized at 3.78%. This is very close to the 4.22% annualized return of the trendline. So that fits rather nicely. From Jan. 1, 1920 (where the daily data from chartsrus.com starts) to August 31, 2011, the inflation rate was 2.74%. So silver has outperformed inflation by 1.01% over the last 91.66 years. Silver bugs seem to have a remarkable tendency to pick January 21, 1980 for their "inflation-adjusted" price of silver. It is indeed a useful tool to see how insane bubbles can get. The problem is this tool seems to have somehow metamorphosed from a "how high can silver go" number into what silver should trade at. How often do you read about silver's inflation adjusted price of $5.31? That would be calculated by using silver's price from November 30, 2001 as the base. Yet the 2001 inflation-adjusted low does not receive anywhere near the airtime of the 1980 inflation adjusted low. It should. Reward and Risk. Yin and Yang. One possible criticism with the 1920 trendline indicator is inflation was lower prior to 1971. For the crowd who only looks at post 1970 data, here is the same analysis performed starting on August 16, 1971 when the U.S. took itself off the gold standard. more here: http://www.minyanville.com/businessm...als&from=yahoo | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Polls show a majority of Americans want liberties restored and our troops brought home Posted: 29 Sep 2011 01:28 AM PDT From Washington's Blog: ... Americans are sick of the never-ending, ever-creeping war. As Talking Points Memo reported earlier this month: '… Only about a quarter say the wars in Iraq (26%) and Afghanistan (25%) have lessened the chances of terrorist attacks in the United States,' the Pew report reads. 'In both cases majorities say the wars either have increased the risk of terrorism in this country or made no difference.' Top American military leaders agree, saying that the war on terror has weakened our national security. ... And Americans have become much less tolerant of the wholesale destruction of our constitutional freedoms in the name of... Read full article... More Cruxallaneous: This popular American city is becoming a police state Porter Stansberry's crisis update: This is what will happen next Gold WARNING: France bans cash purchases of gold and silver over $600 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Supercharge Your Trend Following System Posted: 29 Sep 2011 01:16 AM PDT
There are many paths up the trading mountain. It's a tough pursuit, and all consistently profitable traders deserve respect. But we think of one trader in particular — our friend Nathan O. – as a kind of super hero. He'd hate to hear that, given how modest the guy is. And of course, you'll never catch him in a red and blue spandex outfit. So what makes him super? X-ray vision? The ability to leap tall buildings in a single bound?
But here's the really impressive thing. Nathan got his retirement-doubling results while holding down a normal job… WITHOUT taking outsized or foolish risks… and without being glued to the screens all day. It wasn't a cakewalk. There were losing trades as well as winning trades. Psychological fortitude was required – as it always is. The magic is in how it was done. If it's possible to conquer the market quietly and patiently, as Nathan did… thousands of miles from Wall Street, without a shred of "inside information" or even a real time quote stream… then others like him can do it too. Here's the gist: On a typical work day, Nathan puts on a shirt and tie (like a regular Clark Kent) and helps the folks in his community as a mild-mannered commercial banker. But then each afternoon, Nathan switches identities… and becomes a trader. He runs the end-of-day signals on his customized trading programs… inputs the proper buy and sell orders into his accounts… and that's it. Not very exciting — except for the returns! (We should add here that past performance cannot guarantee future results – but you already knew that.) So now you might be asking, "Why does he keep his day job?" Well, for one thing, not everyone hates to work. Some folks genuinely enjoy what they do. For another thing, having a standalone source of income – a "Clark Kent" type job – can be helpful to a trader's psychology. It allows for peace of mind, total focus on doing the right thing, and maximum ability to grow trading capital. (As a Market Wizard once noted, "I know people in this business who have $17 million in their trading account and won't buy a new car.") So what is this system of Nathan's? And how does it work? We decided to ask him about it. As a true student of markets and devotee of trading, Nathan was enthusiastic. He not only answered all our questions, but consented to write an in-depth, 34 page special report detailing his path and methods. More on that after the interview…
MERCENARY TRADER: So how did you double your retirement account (106%+ returns) in two years? NATHAN O: Penny stocks and CNBC hot stock tips… kidding of course. I did it through my own variation of trend following. MERCENARY TRADER: Can you explain in more depth what 'trend following' means? NATHAN O: There are many ways of explaining trend following, but in its simplest form, it is NEVER arguing with price. Trend followers react to price and never predict. We buy strength when going long and sell weakness when going short. The roots of trend following were popularized by Richard Donchian and brought to the forefront by Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt. Their "turtles" experiment produced some of the most successful CTA's [Commodity Trading Advisors] in the industry. Trend followers never buy at the bottom or sell at the top – we capture chunks of trend/moves. I think that is the most simplistic way to describe it. MERCENARY TRADER: How did you become interested in trend following? NATHAN O: Books by Jesse Livermore and the Market Wizards probably turned me on initially to the concept. My own personal experiences in trading cemented the deal. One of my best trading periods was due to being with the larger stock market trend for some impressive gains. Being on the wrong side of the trend allowed me to have equally impressive losses, though at the time I was misguided about why I did well. I thought my analysis and understanding of balance sheets, income statements and cash flow was responsible for me picking great stocks that had great bull runs. When it was all said and done I ultimately came to the correct conclusion that I simply bought during a long bullish trend. Many of those same companies retained strong balance sheets and cash flow that I lost money on when the trend turned south.
To take this a step further, try this experiment with your broker: Stock "A" is priced at $100 and you have 200 shares. News just came out (very positive about earnings), but the stock drops to $94 per share. Call your broker and see how accommodating he is to letting you sell at $104 per share because that is what the price "should" have been. What should happen or what others tell you should happen is irrelevant to what actually happens. Just because price drops in a tradable instrument doesn't mean it is a good deal. To me it means there are more sellers than buyers and until that trend changes I have no interest in buying. MERCENARY TRADER: How long have you been involved in the markets? NATHAN O: In general I have around 20-years experience, which started with single issue stocks and mutual funds. From there I delved into options trading, futures trading and even day trading the e-mini S&P 500. I currently trade ETF's (which give me access to stock market indexes, commodities and shorting abilities) and currencies. At times I will trade individual stocks, but it is a small portion of my capital allocation. MERCENARY TRADER: You don't use the original trend following system as devised by Richard Dennis and the turtles – why not. NATHAN O: First, let me say that I owe so much to that original system and the developers. Their concept of normalizing risk, limiting losses and letting profits run is priceless. I consider it a major turning point in my trading career, especially driving home the fact that winning percentage is meaningless. Percentage return is all that matters, even if you are only right 3 out of 10 trades. That being said, I did initially and continued to struggle with, the drawdowns and equity swings that are common to trend following systems. Through extensive back testing (manually) and real time testing with real capital, I began making adjustments specific to how trades were exited. I won't get into all the specific details, but let's just say that channel exits (as traditionally used by trend followers) have some serious flaws under certain conditions. I have a two part exit strategy that takes volatility and price bar patterns into account. During sharp moves in my direction (whether at the beginning of a trend or near the end) I have been able to capture more open profits that channel stops alone would leave on the table, and also get to break-even or a small profit/small loss early on in a trade which would have ended up in a full loss using the same channel exit. It does not work 100% of the time, but nothing does in trading. The 20-30 times it does work (out of 40 – 50 trades) makes a huge impact on returns.
MERCENARY TRADER: What was it like evolving your own system? NATHAN O: One on hand it is the ultimate puzzle and challenge for the mind, yet it also brings frustration at times. With computerized back testing the ease with which you can over-optimize can be dangerous. I made many exciting discoveries that in real time demo trading were absolute failures. The more specific you make the parameters or tailor fit those parameters to individual instruments, the more likely you are to have found nothing of value. To give a very simple example, if adding a moving average of 40 days – 70 days to our system increases return by a range of 4-7%, but using 62 days specifically increases return by 17% historically, hold your excitement. I can almost guarantee you that the system has been over-optimized. I like using diverse instruments (commodities, indexes, currencies) for any testing and I want to see a favorable improvement for the whole group. If you can achieve that I believe you will have a much more robust system. These frustrations led to manually back-testing many of my theories. This is painstakingly slow, but I believe it was 90% responsible for bringing these enhancements to life. First, you get the benefit of using your eyes and brain to see if there are repeatable patterns that give clues. A simple printout of a back-test result is void of that concept. Second, you can see on the charts exactly how your changes (the exits in my case) look during the trade. This provides much more value as far as I am concerned than a simple print-out. MERCENARY TRADER: What markets did you trade to get the 106% returns in two years? NATHAN O: Primarily sector funds and ETFs with my retirement account. I also profitably traded currencies in a taxable account, but I did not include the percentage gain on that account in the 106%. My retirement account is now in an IRA for obvious reasons – the ability to short markets through inverse ETFs and the ability to cover a wider range of markets. Not to go off on a tangent here, but 401K accounts are a huge disservice to investors. On many funds you are penalized for transferring out too early, and you have no ability to earn returns when the market is trending down. Let's face it, being in small caps, large caps and an international fund is not "diversification." I was fortunate that my own plan had many more options than what is standard; however, the whole slant towards gains only when the market is going up is appalling. Our system is very archaic and I hope there will be some changes. When your only defense is going to cash (which is still light-years better than buy and hold), you are missing out on returns from the short side . MERCENARY TRADER: Did you have to take some big outsized risks for those returns? NATHAN O: No, my standard risk per trade is between 1 – 2%. I feel I approach the markets from what I call a "risk perspective", so I am a cautious trader by nature. I could amp up my potential returns more, but the resulting drawdowns would not fit my trading profile. As strange as it may sound, I get more satisfaction if the market is down 20% and I am up 5% than hitting a return of 120% where the market is up 40%. If I were investing in a hedge fund I would expect it to do well during general bull market periods. It is during the nasty, tough periods that I would gauge their abilities. MERCENARY TRADER: How much does winning percentage play a role in your success?
Being right 9 out of 10 times does not buy you a pack of gum if your one loss is $10.00 and your gains were $9.00 in total. I can give you a system that is 94% accurate, but I would never trade it. Sadly, I believe there are some traders that would have no problem losing money as long as they could impress others with how "right" they are. MERCENARY TRADER: Can you give an example of a winning trade that overpowered multiple small losses?
NATHAN O: Sure, if you look at the chart of the Swiss Franc it was a very profitable trade. I entered short as indicated and thanks to what I call my Momentum Trailing Stop (MTS) I exited with a nice gain. If you count back the bars using a traditional channel stop you can clearly see the amount of open profits that would have been given up. This is where I differentiate myself from standard trend following. MERCENARY TRADER: That's great. How about another example?
NATHAN O: This trade is an example of a loss, but I think it is as important as showing winning trades. The reduction in loss by using my exit strategies vs. a standard channel stop is evident on the USD/JPY trade. Most new traders probably won't appreciate the impact this has on your account over a large number of trades, but it is substantial.
One last good example showing how a profit target can be beneficial is the NZD/USD short trade. I will be the first to admit it was pure chance that the pair turned right after hitting my profit target, but the concept of reducing losses or notching small gains with advanced exit strategies (when compared to traditional trend following models) is obvious. MERCENARY TRADER: What are some key characteristics of a good trend follower? NATHAN O: I can only speak for myself, but patience, discipline and humility come to mind. I won't pretend that a string of losses (especially on the same instrument) are not disheartening, but you have to have faith in your system. When you get that next entry signal you MUST have the discipline and fortitude to take it. I also believe most trend followers are as far from egotistical as you can get. They are humble and although they may have confidence in their system, they are not the flashy type that is in need of attention or accolades. They do their own thing and continue to learn from their trading experiences. MERCENARY TRADER: Were there any key differences in trading from a retirement account? NATHAN O: No short selling, which you have to combat by using inverse ETFs. As I mentioned before, with a traditional 401k account there is typically no true diversification and penalties for shorter holding periods by many of the funds. With an IRA you can accomplish true diversification and short selling. If you have a self-directed IRA you can even trade Forex in your retirement account. Though this can be accomplished through ETFs, for several reasons I prefer trading currencies directly. MERCENARY TRADER: Do you see trend following working as effectively in bear markets as in bull markets? NATHAN O: Absolutely. Even if you were only a long investor and simply moved everything to cash during down trends you would be much further ahead than buy and hold. Since Trend Followers have no bias towards long or short selling, we take part equally in trends, whatever the direction. In my case, my exit strategies become even more important, as the moves from panic selling and fear are typically more violent. The resulting retracements and moves against your position can be equally fierce. Using standard channel exits can leave enormous amounts of open profits on the table. I have found on the short side my partial profit target may get hit in days or in some cases hours, whereas on the long side it is typically a longer process lasting weeks. In my opinion trend following will always work because people have not changed. I don't see much difference in Tulip Mania compared to the Internet Bubble and currently Gold. MERCENARY TRADER: What does a typical trading day look like for you? Is it something anyone with a "normal" job could handle?
MERCENARY TRADER: Why do you think trend following is so powerful, in terms of consistent long-term results? NATHAN O: The biggest reason I already mentioned before, human nature and the individual participants have not changed. Fear & Greed are as prevalent now as they ever were. There will continue to be bubbles and trend followers will continue to profit from those moves. I don't know when it will happen, but eventually Gold/Silver will provide some great shorting opportunities as well as Bonds. Whenever that does happen I won't be the only trend follower to participate in those moves. "This time it's different" is the probably the most accurate and predictive tool for signs the trend is almost over. Conceptually trend following covers enough markets, whose moves are large enough to more than make up for the expected small losses. MERCENARY TRADER: Anything else you think the public should know about trend following ? Particularly those who want to learn more or dive into it themselves. NATHAN O: It is pretty hard to cover everything with just an interview, which I assume is why you guys asked me to write a report. I would say even if you are a swing or day trader, the diversification of adding another system is beneficial to your overall returns. At a minimum, using some of the same steps I used in improving my system can be applied to any trading system. Everyone has a different trading psychology or profile, and it is up the trader to find that right match. I would never be good at day trading, while others don't have the patience of longer term systems. Regardless, I think any time you get a chance to learn (regardless of the trading style) you will become a better trader. Some of the initial concepts I eventually incorporated with my own modifications came from swing traders – not trend followers. Keep up the good work on the site gentlemen, I only wish I would have had access to information like this 20 years ago. MERCENARY TRADER: Thanks! And thanks for your excellent insights. Your report looks like a must-read, as we describe (along with how to get access!) for readers below… There is a reason why the managed futures industry handles hundreds of billions of dollars with superior results — as shown by the below 30 year chart from iasg.com. The bulk of managed futures funds are run by systematic trend following systems, with top performers showing outperformance for decades.
For the sake of bettering our own knowledge – as well as that of the Mercenary Trader community – we thus asked Nathan O. to further share his trend following knowledge in deep detail. Special Report: Supercharge Your Trend Following System The result is a 34 page special report, "Supercharge Your Trend Following System," that covers all the key elements of the trend following methodology. The elements of Supercharge Your Trend Following System include:
In addition to learning all about the trend following methodology – from seasoned practitioner Nathan O. – this comprehensive special report touches on system improvement techniques in vital areas such as:
And more! We are offering Nathan O.'s report, Supercharge Your Trend Following System, at a limited time price of $49.95. Why $49.95? Because it was agreed, we want this report to be accessible to everyone – but we don't want it to be free. Look, $49.95 isn't much — less than the pizza and beer tab for a Superbowl party. But it's enough to filter out those who aren't serious about improving their trading results from those who are. Nathan has agreed to share his knowledge widely, but wants to keep the "good stuff" for those who are truly hungry for success. And whether or not you like the sound of systematic trend following – whether you are an investor, a discretionary trader, | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| James Turk talks to David Morgan Posted: 29 Sep 2011 12:11 AM PDT James Turk, Director of the GoldMoney Foundation, talks to David Morgan of silver-investor.com about silver price developments, CFTC's investigation and the silver market. They discuss paper ... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 29 Sep 2011 12:07 AM PDT Lots of emails about this. Open thread.    | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| WATCH: The Hyper Report 9.29.11 Posted: 28 Sep 2011 10:41 PM PDT In the 9.29.11 Hyper Report:
Please prepare now for the developing economic and social unrest. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 28 Sep 2011 10:00 PM PDT After the gold price stabilised at the technically-important level of $1,610 per troy ounce at the beginning of the week, the yellow metal was set for a one-day rally, lifting its price to $1,675 per ... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks Rise and Fall on Wait and See Posted: 28 Sep 2011 09:52 PM PDT "Stocks gained, extending a weekly rally, and the cost of insuring banks against default fell as finance ministers met to tackle the European debt crisis. The euro weakened, Treasuries fell and commodities gained." "Ministers from the Euro region meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said today the 18-month debt crisis leaves no room for tax cuts or extra spending to spur growth. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday policy makers need to "constantly be ahead of the curve" and show the same unity of purpose as central banks displayed in providing extra dollars to European banks." "There needs to be more coordinated action and I think markets are taking this very positively," Kirk Hartman, who oversees $355 billion as the Los Angeles-based chief investment officer of Wells Capital Management, told Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." "I don't think we're going to have a banking crisis, but I think we are going to have more turmoil. Clearly there are issues, but I think over time it will work itself out." "The S&P 500 climbed 4.8% this week through yesterday. Research In Motion Ltd. sank as the maker of the BlackBerry smartphone reported earnings that missed analysts' estimates." "Financial stocks led gains in Europe, with Deutsche Bank AG jumping +4.3%and Credit Suisse Group AG rising 5.5%. The ECB announced coordinated measures with the U.S. Federal Reserve yesterday to ensure lenders have enough dollars. Hermes International (RMS) SCA sank 6.5 percent as the luxury-goods maker's founding family won a court ruling allowing it to set up a holding company to defend against takeovers." The Euro declined against 13 of its 16 most-traded peers, weakening 0.5 percent against the Yen. The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, rose +0.4%. Finance ministers meeting in Poland ruled out efforts to prop up the economy and gave no indication of fresh aid for lenders. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield added two basis points and the yield on the Greek two-year note tumbled for the third day." -Stephen Kirkland -9-16-11 Bloomberg.net Central bankers huddled in Poland with Tiny Tim are being told what to do. They all agree to cover Greece for 90 days minimum and are working on the next extension plan. Pushing on a strong never works but it helps the game of 'extend and pretend' to last for many more months than one expects.
        This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold price lower as dollar gains Posted: 28 Sep 2011 09:15 PM PDT Gold and silver prices both fell yesterday, as fears over bank liquidity in the eurozone once again pushed the US dollar higher against the euro. Though it has fallen in early trading today, the ... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Buyers Rush in After Price Slump Posted: 28 Sep 2011 09:12 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverThe price pattern for gold on Wednesday was very similar to the price pattern on Wednesday...with an initial dip and then a smallish rally into the London open. The end of this rally shortly after London trading began, proved to be the high of the day...but, by the opening of equity trading in New York six and a half hours later, the gold price was down less than five bucks from the London open. Then the selling pressure began in earnest, with gold's low of the day coming in the thinly-traded New York Access Market around 2:25 p.m. Eastern time. The price rallied about ten bucks off that low...and finished down precisely $40 from Tuesday's closing price. Net volume was a hair lighter than Tuesday's volume at 190,000 contracts, give or take.
Here's the New York trading session on its own. You can see that gold was actually rallying a bit in the early going before the not-for-profit seller[s] showed up around 9:40 a.m. Eastern.
Silver's price rally minutes before the London open was much more pronounced than gold's. The top of that rally [around $32.60 spot] proved to be the high of the day. The silver price headed south, but rallied a bit once the London silver fix was in shortly after 12 o'clock noon in London. This rally ended at the same time as gold's rally...around 9:35 a.m. Eastern time...and bottomed the same time as gold...around 2:25 p.m. in the thinly-traded electronic market in New York. This silver price rallied nicely off its low, but the not-for-profit seller was there to cut that off at the knees. Silver finished down $1.95 spot on the day. Net volume was 'only' 58,000 contracts, which was down substantially from Tuesday.
Here's the New York silver chart from yesterday. If you think it looks suspiciously similar to the gold chart...you would be right about that.
The gold stocks turned out to be just another stock again yesterday. With the Dow down big, the HUI graph was almost a carbon copy of what the Dow looked like yesterday. Between the combination of falling equity markets...and a falling gold price...the shares got hit pretty good...and the HUI finished down 4.45% on the day.
I'm only speculating here, but if you check both the New York gold chart above...and compare it to the HUI in front of you...you'll find some rather striking similarities. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if gold got hit so there was no safe exit for investors fleeing the equity markets yesterday. Considering the fact that gold was in rally mode from 8:00 a.m. Eastern time to minutes after the equity markets opened in New York, I'm sure it would have continued if a willing seller hadn't shown up. The silver stocks got crushed across the board...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index showed an eye-watering decline of 6.83%
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 10 gold and 64 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow...and the link to what little action there was, is here. After two wild days on Monday and Tuesday, there were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV yesterday. But there was another sales report out of the U.S. Mint. They sold an additional 7,000 ounces of gold eagles...2,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and another 300,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date sales in gold eagles total 82,000 ounces...12,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and a whopping 3,725,500 silver eagles...making September the second largest sales month for silver eagles in all of 2011...and we've got three more reporting days to go in the month. Actually, September is the biggest month of silver eagle sales this year...and I'll get into why that is in my Saturday column. The Comex-approved depositories weren't overly busy on Tuesday. They reported receiving 318,239 troy ounces of silver...and shipped only 59,629 ounces out the door. Most of the activity was at Brink's, Inc...and you can check out that action linked here. As I mentioned yesterday, the two big deposits in SLV in the face of a 30% fall in the price of the commodity in a two and a half day period, were a complete surprise. I said that I would steal what silver analyst Ted Butler had to say about it in his mid-week commentary to paying clients yesterday...and here it is... "A most unusual recent development has been the large inflow of metal into the big ETF, SLV, over the past few days. The extraordinary high volume sell-off in SLV "should" have resulted in a massive outflow of metal, as ordinary investors undoubtedly sold in response to the sudden collapse in price. Instead, deposits surged on a price plunge for the first time ever, if my memory serves. In fact, I had predicted in the weekly review an outflow of 10 million ounces and not the almost 7 million ounces that came in. The most plausible explanation was either big new buyers rushed in to scoop up bargains or (as I suspect) we witnessed a large covering of the massive short position in shares of SLV or some combination of the two. There are two ways to cover a short position in SLV. One involves a straight buyback of shares from sales by existing shareholders which would result in a reduction of the short position and no change in metal deposits. The other alternative is that metal could be deposited and the newly created shares could be offset against the short position. The important point here is that whatever happened, it happened because of the intentional takedown in price that was most assuredly in connection with COMEX short covering and other commercial buying. If the CFTC can't see this, then it is only because they don't want to see it or are incapable of seeing it." Here are three charts that Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com slid into my in-box late last night. They are the graphs of the M1, M2 and M3 Money Supply. All are posted in dollar and percentage changes per year...with the cumulative effect show in the line chart at the top. These go all the way back to the beginning of the pure fiat currency era that started on August 15, 1971. These are very large graphs...and the 'click to enlarge' feature really helps here.
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(Click on image to enlarge) I have a decent number of stories for you today...and a lot of them are gold related, so I hope you can find time to skim most of them. They may have given all these short holders in silver and gold a "Get-out-of-Jail-Free" card with a certain time limit on it...and time may almost be up...especially for JPMorgan Buying Physical Gold and Silver: Doug Casey. The destiny of mankind hinges upon gold: Hugo Salinas Price. Central banks continue to buy gold. Peering into Silvercorp. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeIndia to topple Japan as world's 3rd-largest economyIndia is now the fourth-largest economy behind the US, China and Japan. Numbers from 2010 show that the Japanese economy was worth $4.31 trillion, with India snapping at its heels at $4.06 trillion. But after March's devastating tsunami and earthquakes, Japan's economy is widely expected to contract while India's economy will grow between 7% and 8% this fiscal. "India should overtake Japan in 2011 to become the third-largest economy in the world at purchasing power parity," said Sunil Sinha, head of research and senior economist at Crisil. This 2-paragraph story was filed from New Delhi...and posted in the India Times last week. I thank Nitin Agrawal for sending me this story...and the link to both paragraphs is here.  Eric Sprott backs Mark Carney in Jamie Dimon spatIn the fight to put risk-limiting regulations on banks, Mark Carney, the president of the Bank of Canada, has a big name in his corner: Eric Sprott. After Mr. Carney ended up in a well-publicized argument with JP Morgan Chase chief executive officer Jamie Dimon about whether regulators are on the right track, Mr. Sprott wrote an open letter to The Globe and Mail backing Mr. Carney. Mr. Dimon is fighting against rules that would force huge banks like JP Morgan to hold more capital to reduce leverage, while Mr. Carney is a firm advocate of the plans. The disagreement apparently boiled over at a meeting last week where both were present, and tales of the argument landed in the headlines. This story was posted in Canada's Globe and Mail yesterday...and I thank reader Charley Orr for sending it along. It's worth the read...and the link is here.  Germany slams 'stupid' US plans to boost EU rescue fundGermany and America were on a collision course on Tuesday night over the handling of Europe's debt crisis after Berlin savaged plans to boost the EU rescue fund as a "stupid idea" and told the White House to sort out its own mess before giving gratuitous advice to others. German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble told Washington to mind its own business after President Barack Obama rebuked EU leaders for failing to recapitalise banks and allowing the debt crisis to escalate to the point where it is "scaring the world". "It's always much easier to give advice to others than to decide for yourself. I am well prepared to give advice to the US government," he said. This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering was posted over at The Telegraph website just before midnight on Tuesday night. I thank reader Scott Pluschau for sending it along...and the link is here.  Euro Is 'Burning Building with no Exits,' EU Has Too Much Power, Hague Tells SpectatorU.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague said his 1998 comment that the euro area was "a burning building with no exits" has been proved right and that member countries will have to live with the consequences for decades. Hague first described the euro in those terms when he was leading the Conservative Party in opposition and Prime Minister Tony Blair favored joining the single currency. In a 1998 speech in Fontainebleau, near Paris, Hague warned that the single currency could damage the stability of Europe by tying together economies that were too different. This story was posted over at Bloomberg yesterday...and once again I thank Scott Pluschau for sharing it with us. The link is here.  Euro Crisis Makes Fed Lender of Only Resort as Banks Chase Dollar FundingThe Federal Reserve, chastised by Congress for lending money to foreign institutions including a Libyan-owned bank, is once again the lender of last resort for banks around the world it knows little about. The failure of regulators worldwide to address European banks' fragile dependence on short-term funding is "putting the Fed in a really awkward position." The extended funding comes as the U.S. central bank is already under fire for its unprecedented monetary stimulus. Republican leaders wrote Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the Board of Governors on Sept. 19, asking them to "resist further extraordinary intervention in the U.S. economy." This is another Bloomberg story from yesterday...and is Scott Pluschau's third and final offering of the day. It's well worth the read...and the link is here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Central banks continue to buy gold Posted: 28 Sep 2011 09:12 PM PDT  Emerging-market countries continued to top up their gold reserves in August, with Russia, Thailand and Bolivia among those to add to their holdings. Central banks have bought gold as some seek to diversify foreign-exchange reserves that have grown along with emerging market export industries. The purchases have helped drive the price of gold higher, because they absorb supply and boost market sentiment. This year, central-bank officials also began buying in earnest in reaction to the government debt woes affecting the U.S. dollar and the euro. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Doug Casey: Buying Physical Gold and Silver Posted: 28 Sep 2011 09:12 PM PDT  Since yesterday was Wednesday, it was also 'Conversations With Casey' day over at the CR website. The topic was all about what you just read in the headline. I can't add another thing to what Doug has to say and, as always, he's interviewed by International Speculator editor, Louis James. The link is here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Casey's Daily Dispatch: Peering Into Silvercorp Posted: 28 Sep 2011 09:12 PM PDT  Here's some information that a lot of readers have been asking me about. I'm more than interested myself, because I hold a small position in this company...and have gone through what every other shareholder has been through. This was posted in yesterday CDD by BIG GOLD editor, Jeff Clark...and is a must read for any stockholder...or potential stockholder. The link is here. [Note to Aaron Krowne...It worked! Thanks a lot! - Ed] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Speculators washed out, metals will rise again, Fleckenstein tells King World News Posted: 28 Sep 2011 09:12 PM PDT  Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital told King World News yesterday that gold, silver, platinum, and copper had gotten very leveraged because for the last year they were the only investments that were working...and thus they were vulnerable to the recent washout of speculators. But, Fleckenstein adds, the underlying fundamentals, including lots of inflation already and a lot more to come, haven't changed, and he expects the metals to begin working their way up again. I thank Chris Powell for wordsmithing the above introduction...and the link to the KWN blog is here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Euro Crisis Makes Fed Lender of Only Resort as Banks Chase Dollar Funding Posted: 28 Sep 2011 09:12 PM PDT  The Federal Reserve, chastised by Congress for lending money to foreign institutions including a Libyan-owned bank, is once again the lender of last resort for banks around the world it knows little about. The failure of regulators worldwide to address European banks' fragile dependence on short-term funding is "putting the Fed in a really awkward position." The extended funding comes as the U.S. central bank is already under fire for its unprecedented monetary stimulus. Republican leaders wrote Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the Board of Governors on Sept. 19, asking them to "resist further extraordinary intervention in the U.S. economy." | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New Zealand: Where Stem Cell Scam Companies Get Stock Exchange Listings Posted: 28 Sep 2011 09:05 PM PDT By Richard Smith To start in a surprising but appropriate place, here are four video segments about stem cell heath scams from CBS, last year. If you don't have time for 20 minutes of video, then at least look at this (just over a minute), which should give the basic idea. These scams are loathsome, preying on the old, the sick and the desperate. Back in 2008, the UK's New Scientist magazine had a helpful article about what it called "stem-cell scams":
Section 11 of that PDF ("What should I be cautious about if I am considering a stem cell therapy?") gives a list of red flags:
Now it's time to jump to the Antipodes, where stem cell cure promotion is rife, and work through that list. Claims based on client testimonials Let's start with patient testimonials. Here is the rivetting story of Shauna MacDonald, via http://stemcellenhancingproducts.co.nz:
Oh, do tell…
I should think it is. Shauna seems to crop up all over the place, by the way: written up by naff web newspapers in Queensland, and by a fluffhead "naturopath/journalist" in a New Zealand blog. It's almost as if there was a bit of a PR campaign underway… Anyway, Shauna's story is definitely a testimonial. Multiple diseases treated with the same cells. At Colostrum Immunity we find the harrowing story of Janelle, who seems to be bent on self destruction. But there's no need to stop with inclusion body myopathy; in their testimonials section we find a remarkable list of sometimes misspelt afflictions and symptoms that have been cured or at least alleviated by stem cells:
The source of the cells or how the treatment will be done is not clearly documented. These NZ sites have pretty much skipped that part: they just want you to order the "meds" from the sites! Here is Stem Cell Enhancing Products' order form , and here is Colostrum Immunity's (with an email address too). Claims there is no risk. In fact, neither of these sites is claiming to be performing clinical trials at all. They are just flogging the pills! So neither site has anything whatsoever to say about risks. This stinks. But there are a couple of leads to follow. Both Stem Cell Enhancing Products and Colostrum Immunity web sites carry the following text in their banners: "Our Products are endorsed by the Adult Stem Cell Foundation". We have a name, Bruce Lahey, to follow up on, too. While we're at it, let's take a note of the "New Image" branding from that email address admin@newimageaustralia.co.nz and see if we spot it again. Well the Adult Stem Cell Foundation, (web site), of Gold Coast, Queensland, isn't exactly hiding away, and Bruce Lahey is its Executive Director. The Australian tax office seems to have fallen for all this baloney, and given them a tax break. I haven't checked whether Adult Stem Cell Foundation really is a registered charity in Queensland. I didn't spot a ref number, and the Queensland Charities Register apparently requires you to know everything about a charity (including its charity ref number), before you can find any info out about it (ahem, info such as its charity ref number!). I assume, though, that if the Tax Office fell for it, the Charities registrar did too, and sooner. Or both registrations are fake, though I doubt it. At any rate, this seems to be an Australian charity that operates as an endorser for New Zealand scams. Ugly. I think the Queensland Charities Register and the Australian tax authorities might have some explaining to do. And I'm sure the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), who run the SCAM Watch site over there, ought to be interested too. Finally, let's have a quick look for New Image. First we find this, which might give some idea of the intended scope of the operation. Their NZ contact page leads us to New Image International Limited at 19 Mahunga Drive, Mangere Bridge, PO Box 58 460 Botany, Manukau 2163, New Zealand. Looking up the address 19 Mahunga Drive at NZ Companies Register we find this lot. Amongst them, New Image Group seems to be the master, with its own web site and, get this, its own listing on the NZ exchange. It's a pity the NZ listing authorities didn't read New Scientist before they let that one through. There do seem to be some actual medical practitioners peddling this stuff, too, so the New Zealand and Australian medical regulators, if there are any, have a busy time to come. You can get an idea of what the US drug regulator, the FDA, thinks of stem cell treatment peddlers on its home turf from this recent investigation (as you will see, the detail of the 'treatments' is even worse than what is going on in NZ, actually):
As we see, New Zealand's extra twist on this is that in NZ you don't even have to pretend to be a doctor… In the same way that NZ company incorporation laws facilitate tax fraud in Russia, illegal arms deals, and $400Bn moneylaundering by Wachovia, New Zealand seems content to host end-runs of the FDA's protections against fraudulent treatment. Or perhaps the NZ authorities are just waking from a long sleep and starting to catch up. "NZ unable to help international agencies combat fraud", says the headline on a recent NZ Herald piece on financial scams. That sounds gormless: sort your laws out so you can help, then. The NZ authorities should sort the quack cures out too, otherwise one might as well add the FDA to the already long list of overseas regulators and agencies that have cause to get mighty irritated with New Zealand's regulatory environment.
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| Gold & Silver Market Morning, September 29, 2011 Posted: 28 Sep 2011 09:00 PM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BrotherJohnF – Silver Update – “Saving Silver” Posted: 28 Sep 2011 08:56 PM PDT Brother John on why to save silver, who can save silver, and the potential price if the biggins decide to stack it too.
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| Global Research TV: Engineering the Global Crisis Posted: 28 Sep 2011 08:55 PM PDT From Corbett Report: Amidst tense talks about the future of the Eurozone in which the idea of allowing Greece to default on its insurmountable half-trillion dollar debt was floated, even the usually staid US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, warned that "cascading default, bank runs, and catastrophic risk" was a real possibility. G20 Finance Ministers and central bank governors are now calling for the European Central Bank to double their existing bailout fund to create a trillion Euro emergency stockpile to recapitalize European banks and fund Spain and Italy as their economies teeter on the edge of a Greek-like meltdown. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| LISTEN: Bob Chapman on Gold and Silver Posted: 28 Sep 2011 08:51 PM PDT Bob Chapman with American Patriot on gold and silver.
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Nope. Something better. Nathan recently managed to double his retirement account — 106% returns — in just two years. (He has the statements for proof.)
As hard as it is for most people to believe, price never lies and arguing that fact only costs you capital. While the banter by professional investors and analysts about the markets may be entertaining, it doesn't change the fact that price times the number of shares, contracts, or lots (or whatever you are trading) is the value of your investment.
The changes I made smoothed out my equity curve, reduced drawdowns, and fit my own trading psychology (so to speak) much better than the original system. I also added a partial profit target, which is not common of trend following but also had positive changes to my equity curve and drawdowns. In summary, the return I lost by adding the profit target on really big moves (smaller position vs. larger position with no profit target) was made up for by capturing more open profits of those same moves with my exit strategy.
NATHAN O: I don't focus on it honestly. I truly care only about percentage return. Winning percentage is great for impressing friends and colleagues at dinner parties, but it doesn't guarantee increases in your capital account. If winning percentage is all that matters, I can tell you no one will be impressed by my results in that category. As long as my winners overpower my losing trades I am content.
NATHAN O: Typical trading day is 15-20 minutes. I enter conditional orders for my entries out of market hours (or typically during slower volume periods with Forex) with my initial stop loss and partial profit target. I then adjust my trailing stops as needed, which are also outside normal market hours. I realize it is not very exciting, as I am not hopped up on coffee shouting at CNBC anchors with 50 flashing screens while trying to disseminate useless fundamental information pouring in from trading news sources. So yes, based on the time required, anyone with a normal job could easily trade a long term following system.
