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Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain While Dollar Drops
Report From The Gold BattleField
Amid Market Turmoil, Gold Stocks Find Heavy Accumulation
U.S. Banks Threatened By Crisis In Europe?
Major Miners Acquiring Undervalued Juniors In 2012
Sprott – Silver is the investment of the decade
Asian Inflation Demand (Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, India and China) To Support Gold
Gold, Bears, and Peanut Butter
A surprising update on China's "ghost cities"
Five "inconceivable" events that could happen this fall
Twenty signs of imminent financial collapse in Europe
Eric Sprott: Silver is the investment of the decade
Gold price finds strong support at $1,800 per ounce
20 Signs Of Imminent Financial Collapse In Europe
“Let's Return to a Gold Standard Already”
Keiser Report – 9.13.11 – Confidence Game
Gold's Rise to Continue With Fed's Manipulations: Jim Rickards
Banks May Fight Banks as Mortgage Investors Pursue Class Status
Gold is hardly owned at all, much less over-owned, Eveillard tells King World News
Morgan Stanley Releases The Definitive Gold Stocks Report
Central banks and the gold price: Alasdair Macleod
European banks feel Greek heat
Europe Taking Markets Down
Gold & Silver Market Morning, September 13, 2011
Not So Fast Gold-Haters – Richard Russell
The New Bankster ‘Weapon’ Against Gold/Silver
Gold Raid as Europe Burns to the Ground
Silver Market Update
Gold price in euros makes new high at €1,350 per troy ounce
Why A Rise In The Dollar Could Be Bullish For Commodities?

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain While Dollar Drops

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 07:12 AM PDT

Gold reversed overnight gains and fell to as low as $1795.45 by a little after 4AM EST, but it then rallied back higher in London and New York and ended with a gain of 0.91%. Silver fell to as low as $40.023 by a little after 7AM, but it then climbed to as high as $41.181 by early afternoon in New York and ended with a gain of 2.42%.

Report From The Gold BattleField

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 06:49 AM PDT

Amid Market Turmoil, Gold Stocks Find Heavy Accumulation

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 06:37 AM PDT

The collapse of 2008 remains fresh in mind. And yes, while collapse is the most overused word in the financial markets (next to bubble), 2008 was indeed a collapse for everything. Our beloved gold stock sector plunged roughly 70% in only three months. This collapse hangs in the back of the psyche each time global trouble intensifies and the gold stocks selloff. In the last week or so I've received many emails from subscribers who are worried about a Euro crash and a potential repeat of 2008. Let me explain why there is absolutely no need to worry if you own the gold stocks.

First, crashes and big declines don't happen frequently. The fact is, a crash and recession pave the way for a new advance and recovery. There has to be a long buildup of new excesses before the next major decline. Sure markets can correct 20-30% but after a big bust there is much flat-lining. For example, Japan's economic growth for much of the past 20 years has flat-lined. We've had two bad recessions and bear markets in the last 10 years. Don't you think that has already cleansed some excess from the system?

Secondly, and this is most important, the credit crisis has transitioned from the private sector to the government sector. Much of the needed liquidation in the private sector has already happened. However, rather than let the liquidation run its course governments stepped in terminated the liquidation and absorbed some of the massive losses and debts of the banks. In doing so, governments have put themselves and their creditworthiness at risk.

You should have noticed that markets perform in different ways in these differing crisis'. A private sector credit crisis is strongly deflationary. Everything declines in nominal terms while government bonds and and reserve currencies rise. Gold fell in nominal terms but was a very strong performer in real terms. In a government led credit crisis, some currencies rise and some fall. The same can be said for bonds. Equities and commodities will initially decline but far less than in a private sector credit crisis.

Consider the performance of the precious metals complex. In 2008, Gold fell 30% but performed well in real terms. Silver and the mining stocks collapsed. Today in the perhaps "repeat of 2008," Gold accelerated 25%, Silver advanced off its bottom and the equities as of a few days ago completed a major breakout. Yet with the Euro falling, Greece near default, the Eurozone in turmoil and the general equity market struggling, investors remain skeptical of our beloved gold stocks.

The fact is, the gold stocks are undergoing significant accumulation by the smart money. The daily chart of GDX (below) shows a strong recent surge in both accumulation and on balance volume. Moreover, consider the past two days. Yesterday GDX gapped lower and was down about 5% at the low of the day. The market rallied into the close and was only down about 1% from where it opened. Today we see similar activity. The market moved lower early but has gradually made it back to positive territory.

It is also wise to check the money flow indicators on a larger time scale. The strong daily accumulation is no aberration as it is confirmed by the weekly chart. Note the strength of the increase in accumulation and on balance volume.

Yes, in recent weeks we've written much and probably too much about the gold stocks. However, the opportunity is too great and potentially to profitable to ignore. We've shown the value, the lack of ownership, the improving fundamentals and the beautiful technical setup. The market is breaking out and this is to be expected given the huge positives in the money flow indicators. Yet some still worry. They think this could be 2008, even though it is clearly not. We guided our subscribers through the earlier weakness and are now taking advantage of the major profits that lie directly ahead. If you are a serious investor then we invite you to learn more about our service and how a professional can help you. Don't be left behind as this bull market enters its most profitable phase.

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Jordan@TheDailyGold.com

U.S. Banks Threatened By Crisis In Europe?

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 05:13 AM PDT

The interconnectedness of global finance is a truism. This has led many to suppose that U.S. banks could be badly hurt by the crisis currently unfolding in Europe.

I believe that the threat to U.S. banks deriving from the crisis in the Old Continent has been somewhat exaggerated.

First, the direct exposure of U.S. banks to sovereign bond or private lending markets in Europe is small. U.S. banks have limited exposure to European credit, and much of this exposure has been reduced in recent months. U.S. banks have had plenty of time to prepare for a European crisis and the vast majority have positioned their portfolios accordingly.

Second, the main exposure that U.S. banks have to Europe is through the interbank market. Expressed in nominal dollar amounts or as a percent of book value, the exposure is significant. However, as a practical matter, I do not consider this exposure to

Complete Story »

Major Miners Acquiring Undervalued Juniors In 2012

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 04:40 AM PDT

Recently two mining giants – Goldcorp(GG) and Barrick Gold (ABX) — published their bullish earnings reports showing increasing margins due to a rising gold price. Here is a perfect example of a report that's trying to tell us something. The hidden message in these glowing statements is of great significance to gold traders. What is the other side of the story?

The fly in the ointment may be that the majors need new blood. They are having difficulty making progress with their next generation mines; experiencing delays and shortfalls. There is a sense of urgency in their pronouncements of increasing the capital they are going to spend on exploration and development of two key emerging assets.

Goldcorp specifically identified the El Morro Project in Chile, where it's partnered withNew Gold (NGD), and which has the largest potential increase in reserves. New Gold has had a major breakout at $12 and phenomenal month of August.

Read the writing on the wall. The future of the majors lies not so much in glowing statements but in their hidden meanings. These companies, as measured by the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), are getting more mature and are facing diminishing reserves and a rising gold price. This may be the reason why their share prices are underperforming – they are sitting on large cash positions and must either increase dividends or look for growth through mergers and acquisitions.

My firm's area of specialization is in researching promising explorers, as measured by theMarket Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), which will grow increasingly attractive as acquisition targets for the older majors. For example, the acquisition by NewmontMining(NEM) of Fronteer.

Also witness the recent move by Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) in investing $70 million dollars in a young promising company Rubicon Minerals (RBY), which had recently sold off to the downside. Also look at Aurico Gold's (AUQ) takeover of Northgate Minerals (NXG) at valuation levels not seen in more than seven years. I realize that miners have been trailing bullion for several months and am convinced that their day is yet to come. Rubicon had recently published a decrease in resources, sending shares plummeting. Agnico seized the opportunity to make a very advantageous investment. In the Summer of 2008, Agnico had taken interest in Gold Eagle Resources at bargain prices. It didn't take long for Goldcorp to buy the entire company, giving Agnico a significant profit. This may be exactly the template that other hungry majors will be looking to emulate as they buy emerging properties at discounted prices. As the price in gold bullion advances many situations increase in value. GST is always on the hunt for assets in the earth which are the mother lodes of the eventual bullion.

When the day of the junior miners comes, the profits will far outstrip those of bullion. From a technical standpoint, often times mergers and acquisitions are not readily discernible in chart patterns. Indeed, Fronteer had quite a nasty correction before it was acquired by Newmont. Suffice it to say that momentum traders rarely benefit from mergers in the making.

I've noticed that equity prices will fall below a rising 200 day moving average only to eventually break through on the way up. Interested parties might find juniors at irresistible bargains right now in comparison to gold bullion.

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Sprott – Silver is the investment of the decade

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 03:47 AM PDT

From GoldMoney:
Renowned fund manager Eric Sprott forecasts a silver price explosion in this decade. Silver will become the investment of the decade. The continued monetisation of outstanding debt by central banks would result in an acceleration of the global capital flight into safe havens such as gold or silver.

According to Sprott, it is entirely possible that we will see gold at $12,000 per troy ounce, after the yellow metal took out $1,764 per troy ounce. Sprott is in line with renowned fund manager Marc Faber, who also said that gold was still "dirt cheap" at today´s prices. Sprott even expects silver to be a 30-bagger from its current price level. Historically, the gold/silver ratio was at 16:1. The gold/silver ratio shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy 1 ounce of gold. If one assumed that gold was traded at $12,000 per troy ounce in the future – with the gold/silver ratio overshooting and sinking to 10:1 – silver´s price target would be at $1,200 per ounce, Sprott said.

Sprott added that shares of mining companies in the gold and silver sector were still worth buying, with the precious metal mining sector finally starting to outperform other primary producers.

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Gold was under pressure right from the open of Far East trading on Monday morning...and by the time London opened, it was down just a bit under thirty bucks. From that low, gold rallied a bit, recovering a bit over twenty dollars of that loss.

But that was it, as the gold price continued to edge lower until New York opened. Then the selling really got serious...and by the time that seller was through, the gold price was down over $60 on the day, briefly dipping below $1,800 spot at the low, which occurred about 2:20 p.m. Eastern time in the thinly-traded New York Access market.

The price recovered smartly from there, closing well off its low, but still down $44 on the day. Net volume was pretty heavy...around 225,000 contracts.

The silver price managed to hang in there until shortly after 10:00 a.m. in London...before it, too, bowed to the selling pressure. An intermediate low was set shortly after 9:00 a.m. in New York, with a brief rally back above $41 spot around 10:05 a.m. Eastern, before the selling pressure continued.

The seller disappeared the same moment as the seller for gold disappeared...around 2:20 p.m. Eastern time during electronic trading. The spot low for the day was reported at $39.60 by Kitco...although the data feed from the good folks over at stockcharts.com indicated that silver's spot lows was $39.75 spot. One of these data feeds is wrong...and I don't know which one it is.

From the low, silver put in a very impressive rally, and only closed down $1.09 on the trading day, which ended at 5:15 p.m. Eastern. Net volume was a very chunky 43,000 contracts.

Well, the HUI chart looks suspiciously like the Dow chart from yesterday. The Dow and the HUI peaked a few minutes after 10:00 a.m. before both rolled over. The 'recovery' in both began around 2:20 p.m. Eastern...about the precise moment that the mysterious seller in both gold and silver vanished in the New York Access Market.

From there, the Dow recovered and closed in positive territory...but with the price of gold declining all day, the best the gold stocks could do was to cut their loses substantially, which is what they did. At one point the HUI was down a hair over 5% on the day...but closed down 'only' 2.91%

For the most part, the silver shares really took it on the chin...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index was down a chunky 3.93%

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 214 gold, along with 76 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. In gold, just about the only short/issuer was the Bank of Nova Scotia with 213 contracts...and the big long/stopper was JPMorgan in its client account with 209 contracts to be received.

In silver, the largest issuer was JPMorgan and JPMorgan and Merrill were the main stoppers. The Issuers and Stoppers Report for yesterday is worth a look...and is linked here.

The GLD ETF reported no change on Monday but, despite the price decline in silver yesterday, an authorized participant deposited a rather large 2,532,072 troy ounce of the stuff into SLV.

The U.S. Mint only had a smallish sales report. They sold another 50,000 silver eagles...and that was all. If the mint's figures are to be believed, we've certainly seen a slow down in gold and silver eagle sales so far this month...and we're nearly half-way through September already.

Friday was another busy day over at the Comex-approved warehouses. They reported receiving 1,174,358 troy ounces of silver...and only shipped 119,646 ounces out the door. The link to all that action, is here.

When gold and silver have a bad day, I always keep my eye on the prize by looking at how they are doing year-to-date vs. every other 'commodity' out there. Here's a little 'eye candy' for you...and the chart is courtesy of finviz.com.

(Click on image to enlarge)

With the weekend and all...there are no shortage of stories that I considered to be worth your time. I hope you can wade through all of them.

We haven't been under the 200-day moving average in gold for nearly three years...and the chance that we may revisit it any time soon, especially under the economic, financial and monetary situation we face today, is remote to say the least.

Gold to reach $2,000 in 45 days - James Turk. Morgan Stanley Releases The Definitive Gold Stocks Report. Gold is hardly owned at all, much less over-owned: Jean-Marie Eveillard

¤ Critical Reads

Banks May Fight Banks as Mortgage Investors Pursue Class Status

Here's another story from the top drawer of the 'You-can't-make-this-stuff-up' filing cabinet.

Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase & Co...and other banks may pay more to resolve claims over their alleged roles in the collapse of a $2.3 trillion mortgage- backed securities market if sophisticated investors are allowed to sue as a group along with less savvy ones.

Class-action status allows investors to pool financial and legal resources, giving them greater leverage to win larger settlements or verdicts. The banks, however, have a court ruling on their side that may help fend off such blockbuster cases. It says class status is barred because some investors are too sophisticated -- in fact, because some of them are other banks, including JPMorgan.

This longish article posted over at Bloomberg on Friday is worth skimming...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sharing it with us. The link is here.

View full GSD edition

Jamie Dimon, CEO Of JPMorgan Chase, Calls International Bank Rules 'Anti-American'

I don't know where the expression 'the pot calling the kettle, black' came from...but it certainly applies to this story over at the huffingtonpost.com yesterday.

The United States should consider pulling out of the Basel group of global regulators, Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said in an interview with the Financial Times.

Dimon said he was supportive of forcing banks to have more capital but argued that moves to impose an additional charge on the largest global banks went too far, particularly for U.S. lenders.

With the largest derivatives book on Planet Earth, methinks that Mr. Dimon doth protest too much. Roy Stephens sent me this story...and the link is here.

View full GSD edition

Walker's World: A dying economy

Well, Martin Walker, UPI Editor Emeritus, has the brass knuckles on in this article filed from Washington yesterday. He concludes with this eye-opening paragraph...

Where this takes us as an economy dependent on mass employment to pay for consumption, taxes and pensions that still unclear. And what it does to us as a society in which most people measure much of their self-worth by their jobs and their incomes and their ability to take care of their families is more uncertain still. But the essence of this crisis is becoming clear; it is less an event than a transition. We won't be getting back to "normal"...not ever.

No shades of grey here. It's another Roy Stephens offering...and the link is here.

View full GSD edition

Germany and Greece flirt with mutual assured destruction

Bild Zeitung populism has prevailed. Germany is pushing Greece towards a hard default, risking the uncontrollable chain reaction so long feared by markets.

First we learn from planted leaks that Germany is activating "Plan B", telling banks and insurance companies to prepare for 50pc haircuts on Greek debt; then that Germany is "studying" options that include Greece's return to the drachma.

German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble has chosen to do this at a moment when the global economy is already flirting with double-dip recession, bank shares are crashing, and global credit strains are testing Lehman levels. The recklessness is breath-taking.

If it is a pressure tactic to force Greece to submit to EU-IMF demands of yet further austerity, it may instead bring mutual assured destruction.

This must read is an Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering from yesterday's edition of The Telegraph...and the link is here.

View full GSD edition

European banks feel Greek heat

European bank shares fell sharply amid fears over a potential default for debt laden Greece and the expected downgrade of a France's major lenders.

Unicredit, the Italian lender, saw its shares suspended after falling 7.5pc, while in France Société Générale slid 12pc to its lowest level in more than 19 years.

The falls come as traders slash holdings in lenders with exposure to Greek debt with some bankers in London forecasting a default within weeks.

The euro dropped to a 10-year low versus the yen and a seven month low versus the dollar as currency traders shifted their holdings to safe havens. The shift to the yen keeps alive the risk that Japanese authorities will follow their Swiss counterparts in a wholesale intervention to weaken the yen.

This is another must read from yesterday's edition of The Telegraph...and, once again, I thank Roy Stephens for the story...and the link is here.

View full GSD edition

Greece introduces new property tax to plug €2bn budget shortfall

Greece's Socialist government is expected to announce the details of a new property tax today that it has said it must introduce to qualify for a sorely needed €8 billion loan tranche by plugging a €2 billion budget shortfall.

Announcing the new tax after an emergency cabinet meeting on Sunday morning, finance minister Evangelos Venizelos said his government had no option but to do "everything necessary" to cover the budget shortfall, following a deeper-than-expected recession.

Forecasting that the next two months would be "hellish" for the Greek people, Mr. Venizelos said the revenue shortfalls threatened the country's vital international bailout programme.

This story was posted in The Irish Times in the wee hours of this morning...and we have Roy Stephens to thank for this as well. The link is here.

View full GSD edition

Italy asks China to buy its bonds

Italy has asked China to make "significant" purchases of Italian debt, the Financial Times reported on its website on Monday.

This 3-paragraph Reuters piece from yesterday afternoon is Roy Stephens last offering of the day. It's certainly worth skimming...and the link is here.

Banks May Fight Banks as Mortgage Investors Pursue Class Status

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 09:15 PM PDT

Banks May Fight Banks as Mortgage Investors Pursue Class Status

Here's another story from the top drawer of the 'You-can't-make-this-stuff-up' filing cabinet.

Gold is hardly owned at all, much less over-owned, Eveillard tells King World News

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 09:15 PM PDT

Gold is hardly owned at all, much less over-owned, Eveillard tells King World News

Jean-Marie Eveillard of the First Eagle Funds told King World News yesterday that gold is far from over-owned -- indeed, it is hardly owned at all -- as a percentage of world pension funds and as a matter of its ratio with world currency and debt obligations.

Once again I thank Chris for the intro...and the link to the KWN blog, entitled "Eveillard - Expect a Mania in Gold Before This is Over', is here.

Morgan Stanley Releases The Definitive Gold Stocks Report

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 09:15 PM PDT

Morgan Stanley Releases The Definitive Gold Stocks Report

Everything you always wanted to know about the future of gold stocks and much more is now answered in this 79-page monster of a report just released by Morgan Stanley, which finally joins the crowd and goes mega-bullish on gold stocks.

Maybe Morgan Stanley was one of the deep-pocket buyers of gold stocks over the last three weeks.

This excellent item was posted over at zerohedge.com on Sunday...and I thank reader Charley Orr for sending it along. The link is here.

Central banks and the gold price: Alasdair Macleod

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 09:15 PM PDT

Central banks and the gold price: Alasdair Macleod

Economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod, who spoke at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London last month, today analyzes the Western central bank smashing of the gold price that was coordinated last week with the devaluation of the Swiss franc.

Macleod concludes: "Attempts to keep the price of gold down are unlikely to succeed for long. Westerners who buy gold may be unhelpful to the central banks, but you cannot stop a few hundred million Chinese and Indians from protecting their hard-earned savings. And the Chinese are busy developing their bullion markets, taking control away from the Western central banking cartel."

European banks feel Greek heat

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 09:15 PM PDT

European banks feel Greek heat

European bank shares fell sharply amid fears over a potential default for debt laden Greece and the expected downgrade of a France's major lenders.

Unicredit, the Italian lender, saw its shares suspended after falling 7.5pc, while in France Société Générale slid 12pc to its lowest level in more than 19 years.

The falls come as traders slash holdings in lenders with exposure to Greek debt with some bankers in London forecasting a default within weeks.

Europe Taking Markets Down

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 09:08 PM PDT

Roger Weigand looks at technical charts and relevant data to point to where the markets are and where they may be headed. As of the end of the week September 9.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 10,992.13 -303.68 as the global markets got a quadruple whammy. Greenspan warned Europe could take down the whole system; Bernanke offered nothing in his speech yesterday and neither did the president last evening. The selling clincher was the obvious Greek mess in Europe coupled with more desperate comments from Merkle and Trichet trying to get a grip as the Greek disaster gets worse. As we said in an alert today, the G-7 may step in this weekend with major intervention. Further, the PPT can buy a few thousand S&P's Sunday evening or, pre-open on Monday morning. In our view, they better get busy this weekend or, early Monday we could see a 450-750 point drop in the Dow. Today, price fell under its rising support channel. Volume was only 25% of normal and momentum went flat. Price is under all the moving averages. Look for major credit announcements and market moving events this weekend. Otherwise, the clowns leading this tragic circus will face some major selling next week. In our view, they will prop it with determination and hold the line. Traders should watch the open on Monday for 45-60 minutes before making serious moves. Install risk controls and sit this one out.

S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1154.23 -31.67 on 20% of normal volume and flattening momentum. While the close is beneath all moving averages, it's interesting to note support remains inside the lower channel. This is a positive signal and not one of price failure. While the price closed at the base of today's trading range (bearish) there has been no technical violation in the bullish upward trading channel. Support is 1150 and on the channel line. Resistance is the 20-day average at 1188.23. I am almost sure the S&P's will be used as needed to keep these markets afloat. If not, the escalation of falling shares could easily migrate into credit trading taking the whole system down. Expect a flat to mildly-up-propped market on Monday.

S&P 100 Index: Closed at 519.54 -13.81 on 25% of normal volume and flattening momentum. Like the S&P 500, this price stayed within the channeled trading range. Better, the close was not at the price bar bottom but stayed above it and closed on higher price support at 520.00 support and resistance. I think the 100 traders will continue with small volume on Monday and let the 500 traders pull-up the prices. The close is under all moving averages but it really does not have to move nor react much on Monday. Rather, it could just hold the status quo and hope for better trading days next week. This is our forecast.

Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2153.66 -50.63 on normal volume and rising momentum. Both of these points signal buying on Monday as they are more positive. Further, this index leads with a new trend first and the new trend is up. Price remains in a rising channel but the close was in the bottom of the price bar saying sell Monday. Price resistance is 2189.72 on the 20 day average but its sits inside a confined technical, lower, sideways channel. Upper harder resistance is the price of 2200. Most of the technical points on this chart are positive. If you believe in the forthcoming intervention as I do, this market could begin buying first thing after the open on Monday. If that happens, it should help to pull-up all the other indexes along with the S&P's. Expect buying in a propped-up stock market Monday.

30-Year Bonds: Closed at 141.31 +1.19 on sideways momentum and stronger volume. The chart pattern top looks like a mess but it's a reaction first to a rally from 135.00 to nearly 142.00 with two price gaps in middle. After the peak on Tuesday, price dropped and moved sideways for three trading days. Then today's excitement hit and a new rally commenced above 140.00 support to nearly 142.00 resistance. If we are correct on the Monday market propping, bonds will back-up in a mild selling event on Monday and Tuesday to 140.00 lower support.

GDXJ Junior Gold Miners And XAU: The GDXJ made a bear double top after rising since the beginning of August from 32.5 to nearly 38.5. Price is firmly supported above all moving averages. Volume was above average at nearly 5mm on rising momentum. New support is 37.5 and resistance is 38.5. The XAU was similar making a very wide double-bear top on rising momentum and a flat non-responsive metal to shares ratio. Both of these charts signal the pressure is to the buy side but not quite yet as a stronger breakout is needed in gold and silver metals prices to kick-start the shares. We forecast it is coming, especially with the broader stock market ready to rise on propping and manipulation.

Gold: Closed at 1857.60 -8.20 after trading up and down today within a $63 trading range today. Price remains on the bull trend and is above all moving averages. New support is 1855 and resistance is 1865-1875. We are expecting a gold rally breakout, probably later next week. Expect hard resistance at 1875-1885 and then 1892.50 and 1896.50-1898.50. These are all selling pressure points. However, the fundamentals, cycles and calendar are coupled with messy broader markets; and I am seeing a hard assault on 1915.50-1920 hard core resistance. If we break through that one and can hold, we should be near $1948.50 and then to $2,000 where that magic price should be a hard number to break through. Traders should remember we might see a major profit-taking gold selling event between 2250 and 2350 on the longer view technicals. If correct, this could sell gold from near 2,350 back to 1,800. This should not stop gold from going a lot higher. That is a resistance-selling price cycle matching the old and new inflation numbers. Keep in mind our 2005 technical gold high was $2,960. That will be revised a lot higher in the future.

Silver: Closed at 41.62 -0.71 on flat to sideways momentum with a normally rising price channel. Silver's price is above all moving averages. Support is 41.48 and resistance is 41.85. We need to break out and through 43.85 to visit $45 and then $48.50. Silver took a trading beating in our forecasted drops from $50 to $45 to $50 and then to $33. When you lose $17 from $50; the healing time is a few months. That big high was at the end of April. Our Fibonacci on a comeback is $53.75. That is an odd price which leads me to believe we either get a slightly higher high like $55.48 or some less like $51.85. The lower goal should match the December, 2011 intraday previous trading high price; whatever that was. After $51.85 and a hold, we can visit $59.85 rather quickly in the first half of 2012. In the long view, I can see $156 silver and maybe $256.

US Dollar: Closed at 77.15 +0.91 on rising momentum and a major price breakout above the 200-day moving average at 76.08. While this is a big deal, we are now stalled at 77.50 resistance and 77.00 support until the next reaction from the Euro Currency. If the Euro keeps selling and we say it will, the US Dollar is moving up to 77.50-78.50. There is hard resistance at 77.00, 78.00, 79.00 and the final magnet index number of 80.00. If the Euro would perform with a hard crash and burn back to 120.00 support, and it could; the dollar could breeze through 80.00 to 82.50 and maybe something even higher. Both currencies are weak sisters but the Euro is much worse as they do not have an unlimited printing ability from a Federal Reserve or US Treasury. The Dollar is going higher on Monday with a selling Euro.

Crude Oil: Closed at 87.01 1.64 on rising momentum and a price stall against the 50 day average at 90.57 and the 200-day at 92.69. Close by resistance is the 20-day average at 87.62 with new support at $86.00. Oil is stuck in a trading range between 84.50 and 88.50. There is hard up-side resistance from three moving averages and the higher price of 92.50. Oil has been flat on falling stocks and a poor commercial outlook on global credit. However, we think the markets will rise and take oil higher on bullish shares and new inflation. Above the 200-day average, we have price magnet number of $95-$96. Once past that price, probably next month, oil should begin to trade toward our 2011 higher forecast price of $117-$120. Watch for flat to down prices with no big moves next week. In the following week, the new rallies should begin giving oil +$10 or better from $92.50 to $102.50.

CRB Index: Closed at 334.24 -5.66 closing near upper resistance on the 20-day average at 335.97. All the moving averages are crowded between 334 and 336 as oil stalls with grains and metals. Momentum was up but is now flattening. This quarter is the best of the annual long cycle for the CRB. After the middle of September, the stronger rallies should begin riding higher on several commodities. The one danger we face is an unraveling of Europe. I was very worried about this, but the can had been kicked again by the peaceniks and greens in the German Parliament. This means the PIIGS get another reprieve and an extension of credit until the next crisis. That crisis hits probably next spring or fall of 2012. -Traderrog

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Gold & Silver Market Morning, September 13, 2011

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 09:00 PM PDT

Not So Fast Gold-Haters – Richard Russell

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 07:56 PM PDT

From KWN:
"The gold-haters have climbed on the "it's over" bandwagon again. Their argument is that gold has been in a parabolic rise, and that means "the sure end" of the gold bull market. My reaction: Not so fast. The gold bull market isn't going to end with a three-month sharper up-pointing angle."

"The simple chart below shows gold climbing above its 150-day moving average. But starting in July gold assumed a sharper rising angle. Many gold-haters took this new angle to be a parabolic rise and thus, the end of the gold bull market.