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Sunday, September 4, 2011

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saveyourassetsfirst3

Looking At This Year's 'Gold Season'

Posted: 04 Sep 2011 04:49 AM PDT

By Investment U:

By Justin Dove

Last week David Fessler explained how the weather in India affects gold investing.

Since 52 percent of India's workforce is employed in agriculture, the harvest is a big deal. Unlike their American counterparts, Indian farmers don't use banks and investments to secure their earnings. They only trust cash and property. And the most valuable asset is gold.

As David discussed, Indians load up on gold after harvest, and then again between October and May – wedding season. But India isn't the only country to load up on the yellow metal at the end of the year.

  • Tuesday marked the first day of the Muslim holiday of Eid. This is a celebration of the end of Ramadan and is traditionally a period of strong gold consumption in the Middle East.
  • This leads up to Diwali and the Indian wedding season.
  • Then, China usually consumes the metal leading up

Complete Story »

Silver/Gold looks good. USA economy in flames, again.

Posted: 04 Sep 2011 04:37 AM PDT

This commentary will be long and painful, as there are many things to talk about.

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. I took yesterday off from here as I was extremely busy, and was not around the office. So apologize for not committing to my practice yesterday. After 6 months of being live on google blogger, we should be making the switch to www.silvergoldsilver.com shortly, hopefully within the next 7 days. There you will find all sorts of tools and information, not just from me, but from select posters such as SRSrocco. We have forums, a live chat (which I will be actively on for instant answers, blog, videos, etc. The site will run with adwords advertisements, so we can recoup the initial investment. There seems to be a common misunderstanding out there about perception of successful blogs. I have been doing some research, and after I put in my own time, post things, and make sure things are running smooth in the comments section, I clear about $5/hr when I'm physically on here. So by no means are we getting rich over here. We provide data on this blog in the hopes of encouraging people or making people aware of the continued US and global ponzi scheme. So in essence, I spend time away from my family and extracurricular activities to help the common man. So if I ask you to 'thank me' or proceed to the donate button, dont take it personally, you would do the same to justify wasted time. Those who do, which are many, I thank you for keeping this blog going, and giving me a reason to tell my wife why I spend so much time on here that is essentially not compensated. The new site will give you every opportunity to support the ongoing information, and the higher the income, the more info that will come out. Supply and demand. So just clearing that up as there have been many times where I ask myself why I keep posting, but the encouraging emails and comments we get make us press on, as I feel that its too late to leave my peeps high and dry.

I feel some people after seeing a post or reading something similar get the wrong idea. For instance my post about being "all in" on SVM means that I have allocated a certain % of my paper portfolio to SVM in the form of a CALL option. Let me get things straight now so I never have to repeat them again. I am a former trader. Being 'all in' with a call does NOT necessarily mean I'm not hedged or when negative news comes out (like Friday) that I do not instantly hammer the keys in the opposite direction. My former career taught me well in that you have to FALL IN LOVE WITH MONEY, NOT THE STOCK. Emotional trading in this atmosphere is gonzo. But, for the majority of my positions, like the SVM position I have, is long term. But they are options, NOT shares. Allocating say $8000 for 1000 shares of SVM or anything at this point in the game is lunacy. I will only buy junior shares. So those of you who have no idea about options, there will be a folder for that on the new site. I will also be providing a beginners folder. In time it will be filled with good videos and things to get you started in the paper ponzi gambling scene.

Now onto the usual.

Since I own calls, and I have till January to see what I'm going to do with them, I really dont care if the fraud is true. I will only loose a fixed amount of money that I put in. Those buying the shares, will loose a lot more IF its true. I dont think it is. You cant fraud cash. Its very difficult. Thus, I am assuming SVM managements team will be hiring an accredited accounting firm like KPMG or whatever, and this thing should be cleared of 'anonymous allegations' within 2 weeks. If its true however, get ready for a $1 SVM before it recovers. I think, its NOT true, I believe the 13% of shorts our there just won their game. All you have to do is start tracking if the short float is contracting significantly throughout next week on any further weakness. If that the case the fraud is a joke, and they just made a shit ton, and after its cleared it will resume it northerly trajectory with the POS going over $50.

The COT report has revealed what I thought it would. The bankers got slaughtered after Tuesday of last week, the OI on silver is contracting, and the short covering is accelerating.

GOLD COT:
-commercials covered 11755 shorts and added 1326 long.

SILVER COT:
-commercial covered 4288, and and the large specs also covered.

BULLISH.

I would now like to claim victory about the 2012 1 oz Dragons. I have been wishing everyone the best of luck getting these because the rest are GONE. In fact, I was so right, the Perth Mint tried to down play my Blog posting Click here to read... If you visit APMEX and any other store, you will see they are sold out before they even have sold 1. Again, I gave the PM an opportunity to rebut and answer my questions and they didnt...I would assume because I was right, and I warned my readers about it here... weeks before anyone gave a shit to say anything. Case closed.

I leave you with BJohnF, and his silver update. I will be back.

Multi-Asset Investment Strategy In September 2011: Reducing Equity Exposures

Posted: 04 Sep 2011 04:29 AM PDT

By Henry Ma:

Financial markets were quite turbulent in August, a traditionally vacation month, with low trading volumes. The macroeconomic news showed continual weakness in the global economy. Politicians in Washington struggled to pass the debt ceiling almost at the last minute to avoid default.

Standard and Poor's made the investors' sentiment even worse by downgrading US Treasuries from AAA to AA+. European sovereign debt concerns came to the spotlights every now and then, continuing to pose uncertainties in the markets. Investors shed risks as the recession fears and sovereign debt risks intensified. Equity markets tumbled across the globe.

The safe assets such as US Treasuries rallied significantly despite the downgrade. 10-year Treasury rates dropped by another 57 basis points. US dollar strengthened against most of the currencies. Gold soared to a new historic high.

  • S&P 500 Index declined by 5.5% for the month. EAFE index performed a lot worse with 8.8% loss

Complete Story »

Trading Comments, 4 September 2011 (posted 18h00 CET):

Posted: 04 Sep 2011 03:00 AM PDT

The gold chart is difficult to figure out at the moment. It is definitely bullish, but I'm not sure whether gold is ready to soar. It might just drop back one more time to test

5 Value Stocks Trading For Under $20

Posted: 04 Sep 2011 02:34 AM PDT

By Vatalyst:

The global economic slowdown is threatening to plunge the United States into another recession. There are talks of a possible quantitative easing that would devalue the dollar even further. During these times, it is important to find the best value, especially when it comes to stocks.

Some stock can be directly or indirectly affected by the uncertainty of the US and global economy. It is important to pick the right stock and get the most "bang" for our buck, not an easy thing to do when you are working on a budget. Here are just some good value stocks under $20 out there.

MGIC Investment Group (MTG)

This company would be adversely affected by a down turn in the economy as it would limit the demand for home purchases. As a result the stock has continually dropped as it fell 71.3% in the last three months. Its closest competitors Radian


Complete Story »

Physical v Paper & PAGE discussion on FOFOA

Posted: 04 Sep 2011 01:46 AM PDT

Below is a cut and paste of some of my comments on this issue at FOFOA's latest post. Also see here for some comments on the GBI system which was the focus of the FOFOA post, in particular the "fully insured" claim, which many operators imply they have.

mortymer: "You will maybe find this one interesting"

I had seen the SNA papers and tend toagree with Paul I's "egghead" analysis- in the end there is no forced requirement to split out physicalgold from unallocated from leased out, so they can continue to playtheir games.

Kid Dynamite: "How do you have trueallocated storage of any bullion less than a full bar? Ie, yes: barshave numbers that you can put on the statement. Coins do not."

I've posted on this issue here. In my view "true" allocated can only be for full bars andcoins. Bar numbers help in trusting the custodian, but can stillachieve the same with unnumbered bars and coins by marking them (egtexta). One way to really test if allocated is being offered is toask if you can view your metal and if there will be any problem ifyou mark your coins and bars.

Blondie: "The interview with Ned Naylor-Leyland describing PAGE is a must watch IMO, as I agree thatthis has the potential to be a real game-changer."

I'm underwhelemed by PAGE. So there maybe a "fully allocated spot gold contract". Guess what, wesell the 300t of physical gold we refine each year at spot in the OTCmarket - the buyers can be totally private. I don't think we will seemuch trading moving to PAGE beyond what bullion banks will feed it tomeet local demand as other buyers aren't going to want theiractivities out in the public and visible to the benevolent ChineseGovt.

The Giants are going to continue todeal with the bullion banks in the OTC market where they can wadeabout without anyone knowing.

Blondie: "The significance I see in PAGEis as a physical gold price discovery market. If it is fullyallocated contracts that create the spot fix, then I see an arbdeveloping between the existing (paper-based) exchanges and PAGEwhere the contracts are backed by physical."

Just to be clear, in the wholesalemarkets the price of paper unallocated gold with a bullion bank inLondon and physical gold are the same. Tonnes and tonnes of physicaldeals (as well as paper) are priced off the London Fixes. The Giantsdon't need PAGE as a "physical gold price discovery market"- it already exists in the OTC market. There already are arbitragersbetween paper futures exchange and "contracts backed byphysical" ie allocated and spot physical deals.

This is not to say it will always belike this, but right now paper price = physical price. Through allthe ups and downs of the past five years and all the rumors ofimminent market failure I have not seen paper and physical diverge.

As to PAGE being a way to get renminbiexposure, well that will be interesting to watch but note what Victorsaid "long the allocated contract at the PAGE and short goldin US$" - the end result is no impact on the gold price becausethe long cancels the short.

Paul I: "Right now, the gold spotmarket is like a big, stupid, compliant Labrador, Perth Mintincluded. It doesn't mind having it's tale wagged by the papermarket. PAGE will turn out to be a snarling Rottveiler."

I'd say that is debatable. Everyoneassumes paper is in charge, when the only data we have is COMEX andother visible exchanges but nothing on what goes on in the OTCmarket, save for some opaque "transfer" numbers from LBMA.

Paul I: "Quite frankly, as anAustralian, it makes me sick to see our national gold wealth sold offfor pennies on the dollar. I may be naive, but I have to ask why anorganization like the Perth mint hasn't long ago tried to maximizevalue for Australia and Australian gold mines by proposing somethingalong the lines of PAGE."

I don't think you are getting what I'msaying. Perth Mint doesn't need to start an Australian PAGE – everyweek we offer 5t or so of physical gold to the OTC market and thebullion banks and other bid for it. You may consider the current goldprice undervalued, but that does not mean that we aren't maximisingAustralia's gold – if the demand is there then those banks bid forit. If anything changing the current private OTC approach to a publicPAGE would likely hamper the process.

Paul I: "Instead, we see them pushingmassively over-priced "collectable coins" to Grandmas inPost Offices, more demand divertion, very little education."

Our marketing guys push those fancycoins because they are our highest margin product – that makesbusiness sense, we aren't going to waste prime "shopfront"pushing low margin kilo bars. But that stuff is small by volumecompared to kilo bars where ultimately the big dollars are.

mortymer: "To separate physical goldin unallocated from leased would be at this stage too much, they gotso far to clear definitions and on what is allocated what is not andthat is a progress."

Agreed. What that document does is makeit clear what unallocated is. No professional player is unaware ofthat, they just believe in the system and thus believe in the "value"of their unallocated, because they are of the system. I do notbelieve there is any big move from unallocated to allocated at themoment, nothwithstanding the antics of Chavez. If that was the casewe would be seeing a lot more bidding for our weekly 5t.

costata: "According to Bron the PerthMint relies on mine supply of silver for its refinery as very littlescrap silver finds its way to them. I see your point about the priceof copper and silver. I would be interested to hear Bron's thoughtson this. Is it merely a question of price?"

Those comments about "silver scrap ismainly sold and refined locally because it is not high enough invalue to justify shipping it around the world" were primarilyfocused on Australia, which is more geographically remote, and doesnot have much silver refining capacity. In other markets silver maybe far more mobile.

whiteelefant: "Concerning PAGE: myimpression is that any offer which is closer to physical than whatthe LBMA & Co offers might be taken up and will push the price ofAu up. But, I am only a small shrimp and not into finance"

Again, this is an assumption that theLBMA banks are all paper and ignores the huge physical market thatexists side by side with paper.

costata: "Recently I came to theopinion that leverage on the currency side was irrelevant. The keypoint is that the gold itself is not fractionalized. If PAGE said nomargin that doesn't prevent someone from borrowing outside theexchange and trading a 100% cash account with PAGE."

Ha, now we are peeling the onion, orshould I say seeing more of the spider's web.

costata: "We should also notunderestimate how much the Chinese love to gamble. The paper goldmarket appears to be going gangbusters right alongside thedevelopment of the physical gold market according to this article."

Very good point, I noted that commentas well. We should not blindly think that Asia is a physical onlymarket and cannot be tempted by the leverage paper offers.

U.S. Economic Numbers: A Tale Of 2 Solitudes

Posted: 04 Sep 2011 01:27 AM PDT

By Chris Damas:

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls number for August released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed no net new jobs created for the month.

Market pundits had been expecting 75-100K. The July payrolls number was revised down from 117K to 85K and June from 46K back to 20K after originally being reported at 18,000.

Therefore, there was a net loss of 58,000 jobs in the United States since the June revised figure was released. A lot of the job loss was from government. Private non-farm payrolls edged up 17,000 in August, following a 156,000 gain in July and 75,000 increase in June.

Any way you slice it, August was a dismal result and the DJIA (DIA) bellwether extend yesterday's 120 point loss, with futures pointed down 170 in pre-market trading. On Thursday, the market had opened to the upside and by 10am was up 100 points, hitting a post August collapse


Complete Story »

How Do We Fix The Employment Problem?; Thoughts On Gold

Posted: 04 Sep 2011 12:27 AM PDT

By John Mauldin:

This week we briefly look at Friday morning's dismal unemployment report, then drop back and survey some other very eye-opening data on employment. Some groups are (surprise) doing better than others. What would it take to get us back to "normal," whatever that is? I give you a link to some webinars I will be involved in and finish with the answer to the question I am asked most often, "What do you think about gold?" I tell all. There are lots of topics to cover, so let's get started with no "but firsts." (Note: this e-letter may print out rather long, as there are LOTS of charts and tables.)

The Flat Earth (Employment) Society

Unless you were completely out of touch this weekend, you know the jobs report came in flat, as in zero, nada, "0". The economy was in neutral, at least as far as employment was concerned.


Complete Story »

Collar Your Gold To Protect Profits

Posted: 03 Sep 2011 11:48 PM PDT

By Dr.Kris:

Gold has been in non-stop rally mode since October of 2008, but after advancing so far (over 150%) so fast, it's looking a little tired…but has it run out of steam? Considering that the status of the world debt situation along with our own debt problems are far from being resolved, gold bugs have an excellent reason to keep holding the precious metal. But volatility has been coming out of the market, and if it continues to drop, so might the price of Midas metal.

So what's a gold-holder to do? Is there a way of protecting profits while still being able to participate in any further upside?

The answer is "yes" to both questions. The solution that will be presented in this article involves stock options; if you have no options trading experience, either get someone who does to assist you or use another insurance technique such as a


Complete Story »

Seeking Safety In General Motors: Less Risk And More Reward

Posted: 03 Sep 2011 11:35 PM PDT

By Ben Sender:

With so much volatility in the market lately, investors aren't sure what's safe and what's dead money. Starting with the risk of another recession, added by the risk of a default and a European financial collapse and now, on top of all of that, a weak jobs report, can you really blame them? Most investors are doing the same thing: selling (Closing as well as Shorting) stocks and buying the "Safe-Havens". Money has been pouring into Treasuries (TLT,IEF,SHY) and Gold (GLD) as those securities have been considered safe. With the inflated prices of the "safe" assets, are they really that safe?

[Click images to enlarge]

According to Ben Graham, the stocks that are cheapest are the safest as they can't go much lower, yet they can go so much higher. However, those that have been bought into at an unsustainable rate may face a sudden and dramatic downturn. We saw


Complete Story »

The Inevitability of Economic Collapse

Posted: 03 Sep 2011 09:32 PM PDT

Share/SaveBelief that government intervention, as advocated by Keynesian economists, can improve an economy should have ended in the early 1980s. Yet it has not because government power and control is dependent upon perpetuating the myth that government needs to manage the economy. Continuing intervention eventually cripples an economy by distorting price signals and creating the  mis-allocation [...]

21 St Century : Is Gold Poised to make a comeback ?

Posted: 03 Sep 2011 04:30 PM PDT

Columbia University

Tools to Detect Counterfeit Gold Coins

Posted: 03 Sep 2011 10:29 AM PDT

I've known about the Fisch for some time but haven't gotten around to buying any yet. The Fisch costs $169 and you need different ones for different coins. Then I ran across one called the Gold Coin Balance. The Gold Coin Balance costs $19.95 and checks 7 different coins. It is much cheaper and looks like a better deal. When things look too good to be true, they usually are so here are my questions....
  1. Is anyone here familiar with the Gold Coin Balance tool and owns one?
  2. Happy with it?
  3. Is there some reason the Fisch would be a better tool to purchase as opposed to getting the Gold Coin Balance?
  4. What am I missing?

Thanks for any insight regarding these things.

Here are two short videos for the two tools.

The Fisch - Detects fake gold coins (1 min 40 sec):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYQ4y99WIwY
The Fisch costs $169 and you need different ones for different coins.
http://www.fisch.co.za/home.htm




Gold Coin Balance (3 min 21 sec):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjzzY5byfQs
The Gold Coin Balance costs $19.95 and checks 7 different coins.
http://www.goldcoinbalance.com/

1859 : Pikes peak gold Rush

Posted: 03 Sep 2011 10:00 AM PDT

KanColl

Smart investors show their mettle when it comes to gold

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 10:39 PM PDT

Smart investors show their mettle when it comes to gold

Here's a story about gold that appeared at the irishtimes.com website yesterday.  Like virtually all gold commentators these days, he doesn't understand the fact that the gold price is rising mainly because of massive short covering by the Commercial traders in the Comex futures market...but his heart is in the right place.

Investors, institutions and many central banks are diversifying into the commodity to protect themselves from the real risks posed by a global recession, by the intractable EU and US debt crises, from currency debasement and from financial and systemic contagion.

read more

Why this gold boom will be so much bigger than the last - Keith Barron

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 10:39 PM PDT

Why this gold boom will be so much bigger than the last - Keith Barron

With gold surging $50 and silver trading up over $1 on Friday, King World News interviewed one of the greats in the gold world, Keith Barron.  Keith consults with major gold companies around the world as well as major brokerage houses and Keith is responsible for one of the largest gold discoveries in history.

Eric sent me the interview in the wee hours of this morning...and it's a must listen.  The link is here.
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