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Friday, September 2, 2011

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How Volatile are Gold Prices?

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 05:09 AM PDT

Many commentators have been waxing lyrical about gold's volatility. The numbers tell a different story...

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Announcing the Great Panther Silver “Miners Challenge”

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 04:56 AM PDT

It is with great pleasure that Bullion Bulls Canada announces the official commencement of our second, annual miners' contest: the 2011-12 Great Panther Silver Miners Challenge.

We were already anticipating a bigger-and-better contest second time around, as the growing size of our audience and their growing interest in these mining companies suggests that the competition will be even fiercer this time. However, what has made us doubly excited about this year's contest is that it is being sponsored by last year's winner: Great Panther Silver – and they have brought some of their very own silver with them to offer as contest prizes.

In last year's contest (which was generously sponsored by SilverGoldBull.com), Great Panther soared to victory with a percentage gain of 333% over the six-month period of the contest – beating out several other worthy contenders, all of them other silver miners. With Great Panther's share price having retreated from its previous high (like many other silver miners), I suspect that part of the Company's motivation in sponsoring this year's contest is its belief that it can defend its "crown". However, there are obviously many other silver miners ready-and-willing to try to dethrone our champion.

Unlike last year, we should certainly expect some of the gold-mining companies to also contend for this title. With gold's impressive move higher over the past few weeks (while many of the miners were getting little "traction" in markets), this would appear to set up many of these gold miners for their own, spectacular runs this contest season.

Contest Rules:

The 2011-12 Great Panther Silver Miners Challenge will run from October 1, 2011 through March 31, 2012. All contest entries must therefore be received prior to midnight, September 30th.

The contest is open to any/all registered members of our site (registration is free), subject to the following exclusions. No employees/officers of Bullion Bulls Canada are eligible to participate in this contest, nor are their families, or anyone directly affiliated with one of our advertising sponsors.

The winner of the contest is the (North American-listed) precious metals mining company who achieves the highest percentage gain over the six-month contest period. Should any miner "cease to exist" as a result of some "take-over" or related activity, the miner will be deemed to have finished the contest at the share price recorded at the end of its last day of trading. Should any miner entered in the contest engage in a share "split" or consolidation during the contest period, such an event will be deemed to have occurred immediately prior to the commencement of the contest – so that the share price remains legitimately comparable to its original price level. Should two miners both entered into the contest engage in a merger, the company which retains its name after the combination shall be deemed the "surviving entity" (for contest purposes), while the company which was absorbed will be considered to have been taken over.

Contest Prizes:

1st prize – 20 ounces of silver

2nd prize – 10 ounces of silver

3rd prize – 5 ounces of silver

Halfway-winner – 5 ounces of silver

The precise composition of the prizes (with illustrations) will be provided when we announce our final list of contestants and the contest officially commences at the beginning of October. No contestant is eligible to win more than one prize, and all prizes will be awarded after the expiration of the contest on March 31, 2012.

Registered members to our site can enter simply by sending an e-mail or "personal message" which clearly identifies both the name of the miner and the username of the contest entrant to either Chad (chadillac@bullionbullscanada.com) or myself (jnielson@bullionbullscanada.com).

Not So Dog Days Of Summer For Automakers

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 04:52 AM PDT

By Wall Street Strategies:

By David Silver

Ahead of the monthly auto sales figures, the expectation was for another bad month. It seems that expectations were adjusted low enough that the mediocre improvement is being seen as a strong month.

Just look at my title; the headline on wsj.com is much less creative with the simple "U.S. Auto Sales Rise In August." However, what seems to be going unnoticed by the market is that General Motors (GM) expects industry seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales (SAAR) to be at the low end of the 13.0 million to 13.5 million range. That is down from previous months. And Ford (F) still has an estimate of between 13.0 and 13.5 million units. Something has to give. In total, August sales rose 7.5% to 1,072,283 cars and light trucks, according to researcher Autodata Corp, while SAAR in August was 12.12 million vehicles, down from July's 12.23 million


Complete Story »

A Fistful Of Dollars At Family Dollar Stores

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 03:57 AM PDT

By David Greene:

In 2008 when the world was coming to an end and there was blood in the streets, one stock stood out above the tumult and destruction - Family Dollar Stores (FDO). With the S&P down 43%, Family Dollar was the leading gainer, up 44%. Now with the latest volatility in the market and a threat of an economic slowdown or a continuation of sub par growth, investors are looking for the proverbial "safe" investment. As every investor knows, there is no 100% safe investment, but there are attractive investments with cash on hand, consistently profitable, low debt, doing business in a rapidly growing market sector and paying a dividend. And in a market sector that is not as vulnerable to another economic slowdown.

Consumers may stop buying Coach handbags, Armani scarfs or that new Lexus, but they will continue to buy soap, toothpaste and crackers. These discount stores are a


Complete Story »

Silver Stocks Lagging

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 03:19 AM PDT

This last year for silver has been awesome! After a sideways grind in the $15 to $20 range for most of the first three quarters of 2010, silver's September breakout unleashed a beast that has been nearly unstoppable. By the end of that breakout month silver blasted through its bull high from early 2008, and has more than doubled since!

SIR #25: Deep Value Solar Rebound Candidates

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 02:34 AM PDT

This report was sent to subscribers on August 31, 2011.  Join our free mailing list to receive actionable SIR information 48 hours before it is posted for the public…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Macro headwinds have sent traditional energy prices lower, creating a short-term challenge for alternative energy companies.

• A challenging environment has led to deep value opportunities for quality solar companies – while thinning out weak industry players.

• Financial and accounting risks weigh on Chinese solar companies as investors are unsure of the quality of earnings statements.

• Two solar companies represent attractive rebound candidates with low valuations and strong growth opportunities.

  • First Solar Inc. (FSLR)
  • Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The market collapse in early August hit investors like a Cat-5 hurricane.  The damage was indiscriminate as a wide range of sectors and asset classes were liquidated.  Portfolio contagion kicked in as managers dumped everything to cut back on risk levels – regardless of the quality of individual positions.

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During volatile market periods like this, it's important to look at the price action objectively and determine which selling is warranted, and which sectors are likely to rebound strongly.

In the case of alternative energy – particularly solar energy – a number of key stocks in the industry now represent significant value and are likely to be great rebound candidates.

While there is still plenty of risk to manage, a couple of key solar stocks are on our watch list as we wait for price action to confirm that a rebound is in place.

Alternative Energy: A Leveling Playing Field

The major problem that has always challenged alternative energy is the concept of "grid parity."  If it costs X to create a megawatt of electricity using traditional coal or natural gas power plants, and it costs 3X to create the same amount of electricity from solar energy, it becomes very difficult to justify alternative energy projects.

For this reason, governments have issued subsidies to help support the alternative energy industry. The ultimate goal is for alternative energy production costs to approach "grid parity" – where electricity costs the same whether coming from fossil fuels or from renewable energy.  But to get there, investments in technology have been funded largely through government programs.

It's no secret that the ongoing global financial crisis (stagnation, weak recovery, recession – whatever you want to call it) has led to cuts when it comes to alternative energy.  There are still major plans in the works with China and Japan both setting aggressive goals for generating renewable energy as a larger portion of their total consumption.  But cuts from Germany and Spain are catching headlines and raising investor concerns for the area.

The good news for solar manufacturers is that solar energy is moving ever closer to grid parity.  Technology advances continue to allow modules to be built which require smaller amounts of polysilicon or other raw materials, and generate electricity more efficiently.

Traditional fossel fuel costs have fluctuated wildly over the last several years.  Natural gas prices have fallen as aggressive use of "fracking" has allowed drillers to reach previously un-tapped resources.  And fears of a renewed global recession have sent oil prices sharply lower in recent months.

Lower spot prices for traditional fuels have made "grid parity" a more challenging goal – but looking several quarters into the future, rising demand for natural gas and lower oil production should make for a more level playing field.

The current environment favors the very strongest solar companies who will be able to survive through the short-term challenges and capture market share for when energy prices once again begin to rally.

Finances, Fraud and Forward Expectations

A large number of solar companies are Chinese firms with equity securities listed on US exchanges.  One of the major challenges for US investors is the lack of financial transparency when it comes to these companies.

In some cases, the financial statements are simply difficult to analyze.  Metrics such as Capex (Capital Expenditures) and deferred revenue may be treated differently by Chinese accountants versus their counterparts in the US.

But with significant concern surrounding a rash of fraud with Chinese small cap companies, managers are more likely to pass on an investment if there are any red flags or discrepencies.

At the same time, there have been a number of concerns in terms of future industry growth.  ReneSola (SOL) lowered and then withdrew its earnings guidance for the year – yet management still claims to be "optimistic" about the company's future.  Rising input costs and lower sales prices will likely continue to pressure profit margins, and at this point investors don't appear willing to give SOL the benefit of the doubt in terms of growth expectations.

Similarly, LDK Solar (LDK) cut shipment projections drastically, yet announced that they will maintain current production levels.  If demand doesn't pick up quickly, the company could be left with a large amount of costly inventory.

Diamonds In the Rough

Despite the overhead challenges, there are two profitable solar companies that should ultimately prove to be strong growth investments.

Since most managers are lumping the entire industry together, these two quality stocks have seen their stock prices decline sharply to the point where they represent a tremendous value.

At this point, we're watching the price action carefully and looking for inflection points for possible bullish trades.  If we are able to buy these companies at depressed valuations after a sharp market correction, a trade could be set up with minimal risk (using a stop below a consolidation area) and maximum potential gain (riding the rebound trend)

First Solar Inc. (FSLR)

• Critical mass with strong financial positioning and a diversified customer base.

• Advanced technology resulting in lower cost solar panels that produce electricity more efficiently.

• Higher price multiple means investors get less of a bargain, but also indicates stronger investor confidence in the name.

• Factory down time has been used to increase manufacturing efficiency for when production ramps up again.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

There's a reason investors pay a premium price for First Solar…

The US company is the "best of breed" when it comes to solar manufacturers – boasting strong profitability, a healthy financial position, and substantial growth opportunities.  The company booked more than $2.5 billion dollars in revenue over the last four quarters and has managed to grow earnings throughout its history as a public company.

First Solar generated earnings of $7.85 per share in 2010, and is expected to grow profits by 16% in 2011. There is plenty of uncertainty for the overall industry next year, but at this point, the projections are for earnings to grow another 20% in 2012.

With low debt and plenty of access to capital, FSLR has the financial muscle to get through the current challenging period and capture market share as competitors struggle with razor thin profit margins.

One of the reasons FSLR has been able to generate healthy profits is because of their technology advantage.  First Solar's "thin film" products allow solar energy to be captured in areas previously not thought possible with traditional solar panel technology.  Applications for use on vehicles, mobile devices etc. should end up giving FSLR a long-term competitive advantage and allow the company to charge more for its value added products.

Since FSLR is a US company, financial transparency issues are less of an issue.  But at the same time, FSLR is active in building out China's aggressive solar projects – being the only US manufacturer to supply the largest solar plant currently under construction near Mongolia.

FSLR currently trades for roughly 11 times expected earnings this year – and 9 times 2012 estimates.  This is much more expensive than the low single digit multiples that smaller solar manufacturers are currently trading at – but the price represents investors' confidence in the long-term sustainability of the company.

As the portfolio contagion issues subside and managers begin looking for value once again, FSLR shoudl command a much higher multiple – perhaps rallying back to the $140 level from earlier this year.

If energy prices spike once again, FSLR could see profit expectations rise as well – leading to a compound effect of higher earnings and a higher price multiple.  At this point the risk for FSLR looks minimal while the profit potential is quite impressive.

Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL)

• China's largest solar panel maker, most likely to receive support from Chinese subsidies.

• Recent earnings miss leaves stock sharply lower, but company still profitable with sustainable revenue growth.

• Reputation for high quality puts TSL products a step ahead of typical Chinese manufacturers.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Trina Solar has lost half of its market value over the last quarter.  The decline is due in part to the overall weakness in the area, but also to a disappointing second quarter.  Trina saw revenue increase by 56%, but margins contracted to the point where profit actually dropped 64% from the same period last year.

The negative side of this story is obvious.  Trina's weak quarter follows six sequential quarters of growth and is a major disappointment to investors.  But on the positive side, the miss caused the stock to drop to a much more attractive level, and TSL's revenue growth and (still positive) earnings number shows that the company is producing an attractive product that customers demand.

One of the reasons Trina is able to stay competitive is because the company is very strong on the R&D front. Trina is in the process of developing a liaison program with MIT.  The company has also built a relationship with SERIS, Singapore's national institute for applied solar energy research.

Being the largest Chinese solar manufacturer has certain political benefits.  Chinese officials are determined to increase the country's use of renewable energy, which means that Trina should continue to receive a significant amount of orders from various national projects.

At the same time, TSL has developed a diversified base of customers including a major presence in the US.  In 2010, TSL was responsible for 1,057 MW of installations in the US – giving them a 17% US market share.

Next year, Trina is expected to earn $2.20 per share (and this figure has already been adjusted lower to account for narrow profit margins).  So at this point, TSL is trading for just over 7X expected earnings – a significant value for a sustainable profit-generating corporation.

Once again, we're waiting for the price action to set up an attractive inflection point.  Our goal is to set up a trade where we have minimal risk, significant profit potential, and price action that confirms a new positive trend is in place.

$1900 revisited seeing resistance

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 02:19 AM PDT

We look stuck in the $1870's, not a bad place to be!~:36_1_11:



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Attached Images

Gold over $2,000, silver over $50 in October if not sooner, Turk tells King World News

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 02:00 AM PDT

Maximizing Profits from The Real Golden (& Silver) Bull

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 02:00 AM PDT

ECB Doesn’t Rule Out “PIIGS” Gold as Collateral for Gold Backed Eurobonds

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 01:57 AM PDT

Silver and Gold, Different Steps But Same Dance.

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 01:44 AM PDT

It is well established that there is a high correlation between how the price of gold and silver trades. Thanks to this relationship between gold and silver, one is able to use historical trading data of the one good, in order to project what may happen to the price of the other.

Rare Vulture Bargain Excerpt – Timberline Resources

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 01:24 AM PDT

SOUTH TEXAS – In a moment we share a brief window into our Vulture Bargain Roundup Update of last weekend, which is usually reserved only for Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers).  Today's offering is a rare excerpt of that private, subscriber-only update.  The "VB Update" report is our monthly effort to share with Vultures our own brief notations and comments for each of our Vulture Bargain Companies – the resource company guru-chosen issues we have become more than just interested in – we have found them interesting and 'tasty' enough to game via our Vulture Bargain Hunting methods. 

 
Today we share our commentary on our 2010 Vulture Bargain #4, Timberline Resources (AMEX:TLR), which just yesterday released more solid, high-grade underground drill results from their Butte-Highlands soon-to-be gold mine in Montana.  Interestingly, Timberline is drilling for these results from deep underground Nevin Hill, south of Butte, inside a large 14-foot-wide by 16-foot tall 'ramp,' basically a gently sloping tunnel already driven thousands of feet into the Butte Highlands "skarn" pay zone in preparation for mining early next year. 

 
First, though, a side note or two as we just now learn of the non-farm payroll coming in at a 'goose egg,' a zero new jobs print for the U.S.  Sadly, the jobs number is actually better than this anti-business, meddling, overbearing and idiotically confusing administration deserves.  As lousy as it might be for markets and for the American workers, at least the poor jobs performance helps in one respect – to reinforce American's resolve to replace these disastrous pretenders sooner, rather than later.  In our view and in the view of most Vultures, November 2012 cannot get here fast enough now, and for now we can be at least a little more encouraged for the political prospects then.  

     
On another note, we are preparing for the last full weekend of our 2011 hiatus, with a minor, but very slow moving storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico and, this time, hoping against hope, that TD13 (see StormPulse.com image) somehow manages to move more westerly and into our beloved, but severely drought-stricken Texas.  At the same time we have to note the huge amount of dead, dry air over the state and unfavorable steering currents – meaning that forecasters have no choice but to anticipate a Louisiana-Mississippi-Alabama rainfall event instead.

20100902SateliteGulf 

Continued… 


Texas is in the midst of the worst drought in anyone's memory, possibly the worst drought since records began.  As long as there is a rain-bearing storm that might alleviate the terribly dry conditions and rescue the millions upon millions of ancient trees that are now dying here, we will be looking at the satellite maps and trying, as best we can, to "will" the storm our way.  We could use a little help in that effort … and we'll take all the help we can get!  Nothing but rain and lots of it can cure the effects of the epic 2010-2011 Texas drought. … Just try to give that life-saving, heavy rain producing storm a bit of a mental nudge west, please, and thanks in advance!   

 
Timberline – Soon to be a Low-Cost Gold Miner, Very Soon Now 

Markets are still being buffeted by tropical storm-force economic crosswinds. Market participants in the U.S. are still reeling from the double body blows of Obamacare and Dodd-Frank, both of which deserve and should receive eventual repeal if the backlash political storm now brewing continues.  Meanwhile, all we can say is that the events and the policies in place now, today, continue to be supportive of gold and silver – we think. 

 
We can hope that the current strength showing in the gold mining share indexes is not cut off at the knees by the increased concern and pressure on the Big Markets just ahead.  Higher gold and silver prices are the order of the day with gold presently crossing $1,874 and silver nearly touching $43.  Unfortunately, the metals are strong because of disconcerting news out of Europe, and now the U.S. too.  Higher gold and silver prices should be supportive of the miners, eventually, if not today, however. 

  
With that intro, we reprint the portion of the Vulture Bargain Roundup Update of last weekend for Timberline Resources just below as a courtesy to our readership on this long Labor Day weekend in the U.S.

 
(Pease note:  The VB Roundup Update includes the original notation for when the issue was chosen as a Vulture Bargain, the previous month's comment, and the current comment, always in bold.  Of course it also includes our tracking chart as well.  Vultures have access to all the previous VB updates in the archives to review, to remind them of "where we are coming from" and to follow the progress of the trade.)

VB Update Excerpt for VB #4, Timberline Resources

2010 #4 and our Top Pick for 2011. Timberline Resources (AMEX:TLR or TSX:TBR.V) at USD $0.75 July 26, 2010.  Idaho-based gold miner/driller.  Developing low-cost underground gold mine in Montana, production expected 2011. Intriguing exploration possibilities Battle Mountain-Eureka trend in Nevada. Well-run.  Undervalued. Underground drilling at Butte Highlands and in South Eureka potential near-term catalysts. ***Free Shares Watch for TLR if it trades to or through $1.50 – be sharp.*** 

***(Comment from) July 23. News is good, stock action is near flat, … go figure.  Since the June/July update TLR added 2-cents from $0.77 to $0.79 despite Global Hunter Securities beginning coverage of TLR with an "accumulate" rating as we noted in the previous full GGR.  We'd be surprised if we do not see another analyst or two picking up the TLR story before long as they prepare for mine commissioning at Butte next year.  This soon-to-be-low-cost-gold-producer is undervalued and we would have quite an appetite for more in the green op box shown on the full size chart on the subscriber pages. TLR is one of a very few issues we would consider adding up to a very rare "double-double" sized position, if the price is 'right.' TLR is a buy right here in our opinion, but a screaming bargain if it somehow makes it into the green box.  OS may be proven shortly, which would not surprise us a bit.  


***(Current comment) August 28.  In a very nasty market for The Little Guys, TLR declined a net 3 cents USD since our last roundup a month ago, but in the process it dipped briefly in a liquidity vacuum and into the green op box where we think TLR represents an exceptional opportunity.  We, and some of our long-time Vulture Compadres, took advantage of the over-sell-down.  We made note of our actions in the VB chart at the time as we took our position up to a rare (and large for us) 'double-double' sized stake in this soon-to-be-gold producer.  Our 'stink bids' were hit August 5 at $0.65 and $0.67, thank you very much.

 
Our view is that Timberline is in the transition from explorer to producer, and as our friend Frank Holmes of USGI points out, typically the valuation suffers up till the time when investors begin to anticipate production cash flow.  We borrow Frank's chart, which appeared in his excellent update on Friday and reproduce it just below.

20100902USGIimage 
 
(USGI graphic)

Frank writes:  "There are many delays and disappointments during the development and operation of a gold mine. Input costs can rise out of control (such as what happened in 2008 when oil hit $140 per barrel), labor workers can strike, and political/environmental policy shifts such as higher taxes or stricter environmental regulations can shrink margins.


During the exploration and development phase, the price of a gold stock often follows a course that ends up looking like a double-humped camel (see graphic). First there's euphoria over exploration results that are better than expected. The stock price rises as investors race to buy shares. Then reality sets in – this gold discovery is still years away from being an actual producing mine. At this point, there's a huge correction in the stock price."

Holmes continued:  "Assuming the company continues down the path to development, its share price drifts sideways until around six months before the first ounce of gold is expected to be produced. At this point, the stock begins a strong new leg up when a more sophisticated set of shareholders come into the market. Eventually the price drops off and then levels as the speculative money moves on to the next hot opportunity and the company transitions from explorer to producer."


With Butte Highlands production of between 50,000 and 70,000 ounces of Montana gold slated to begin in "early 2012" according to the TLR website,  TLR will soon enter (or has already entered) into Holmes' six-month prior to production window – the time when a new breed of investor begins to move in.  And, that says nothing about the development and exploration possibilities that could come most any time from their exciting Lookout Mountain prospect at South Eureka in Nevada. 


We could be wrong, of course, but we viewed TLR in the green op box as an exceptional opportunity, so we jumped on it with both wings and both talons.  Now, with a rare double-double sized position we plan to sit tight until the market realizes the opportunity that TLR represents. 

 
Please see the TLR chart below (updated through September 1).

20100902TLR 
 
(TLR VB chart.  If the image is too small click on it for a larger version.)

(End of excerpt.) 


That is all for this offering.  We hope all our Vultures and readers have a superior holiday weekend.  Just remember that markets are discounting mechanisms, trying always to anticipate the news of tomorrow, not so much the nasty news of today.  At some point the markets really must begin to discount a material change in Washington, because with the way things are and have been going, that change becomes more and more assured. 

At one point in the now distant past we once confidently opined that there would never be, that there could never be, an administration ever again that was worse than the Jimmy Carter years. 


We stand very much corrected today … by at least one and possibly two orders of magnitude … but at least the current administration is 'good' for gold and for companies like Timberline – we do indeed believe.    

***

Disclosure:  Timberline Resources is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI) and is our fully fledged Vulture Bargain #4. Members of the GGR team are actively accumulating shares of TLR and continue to hold a speculative long position in the company.  

There are currently nine Vulture Bargain Companies, two of which have graduated to our most favored locale, the Trophy Case, meaning we have not only taken enough profit on them to have arrived at Free Shares (shares which have zero risk), but we have also taken additional profits on a portion of the Free Shares, with the remainder called Trophy Shares.  In our view, Trophy Shares, like our remaining holdings in Hathor Exploration and Rye Patch Minerals, have earned the right to stay in our "ports" until doomsday - or until we become disenchanted with the company or with management, or until they are gobbled up by another company, such as Cameco is now trying to do with Hathor, albeit with a low-ball hostile bid. 

In addition to the nine fully fledged Vulture Bargain companies, we also provide linked tracking charts to Vultures of more than 25 Vulture Bargain Candidates of Interest (VBCIs), which we continuously update and share our own trading commentary for.  Vultures can see at a glance how we are gaming each of them at any time by logging in to the password-protected subscriber pages.   

WATCH – James Turk & Alasdair Macleod

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 12:39 AM PDT

James Turk and Alasdair Macleod discuss sound money.

~TVR

There are some huge misconceptions about this popular gold ETF

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 12:38 AM PDT

From Doug Horning, Senior Editor, Casey Research:

Recently, we've received a number of e-mails from readers asking why the primary gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), doesn't more closely track the price of gold, and other related questions.

For those readers who aren't already familiar with the workings of this innovative way to "own gold," it's worth going over a few of the details, because there are some common misunderstandings regarding the ETF.

The creators of GLD were as savvy as it gets. They saw a market crying for something like this and turned that need into one of the most successful new financial products ever introduced. The ETF burst upon the scene in November 2004 and was immediately latched onto as a means of riding the gold bull market without the inconvenience of having to transport and securely store actual bullion. In the past seven years, its rise has been meteoric. It has steadily ascended the list of the world’s leading gold repositories, until today it has the sixth-largest global stash of the metal, at more than 1,230 tons, or 39.57 million ounces, worth over $70.7 billion.

First misconception: Contrary to popular opinion, the SPDR Gold Trust does not buy and sell gold...

Read full article...

More on gold:

Why the New York Times is attacking gold

Three terrible lies you need to know about gold

Hilarious: CNBC inadvertently reveals a potential gold conspiracy

Gold Advances for a Second Day as Equities Drop on Slowing-Growth Concern

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 11:37 PM PDT

Gold Advances for a Second Day as Equities Drop on Slowing-Growth Concern
QBy Nicholas Larkin - Sep 2, 2011 5:01 AM PT inShare3More
Business Exchange Buzz up! Digg Print Email Play Video
QSept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Peter Hambro, chairman of Petropavlovsk Plc, discusses gold prices and China's demand for iron ore. He speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)
Play Video
QSept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The port city of Ishinomaki in northern Japan's Miyagi Prefecture was one of the most severely damaged by the March 11 earthquake and tsunamis. Its residents seek to rebuild their lives after 3,161 people were killed, and as the search for the 793 missing continues. Ishinomaki is the hometown of Jun Azumi, the nation's new finance minister. Bloomberg's Kyoji Iwai reports. (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold gained in New York as concern about slowing growth drove equities lower and boosted demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

European equities fell before a report that may show the U.S. economy, the world's largest, added fewer jobs last month as the unemployment rate held above 9 percent. Advanced economies will probably return to recession as governments toughen austerity measures, said Nouriel Roubini, who predicted a bubble in U.S. house prices before the market peaked in 2006.

"Bullion is still well supported, as investors are afraid to liquidate their longs amid ongoing policy uncertainty in both the U.S. and Europe," Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, wrote today in a report. "All eyes are on the jobs report in the U.S. today."

Gold for December delivery gained $32.60, or 1.8 percent, to $1,861.70 an ounce by 8 a.m. on the Comex in New York. The metal reached a record $1,917.90 on Aug. 23 and is up 3.6 percent this week. Immediate-delivery gold was 1.8 percent higher at $1,859.68 in London.

Bullion is in the 11th year of a bull market, the longest winning streak since at least 1920 in London, as investors seek to diversify away from equities and some currencies. The metal is up 31 percent this year, outperforming global stocks, commodities and Treasuries.

'Double-Dip' Risk
"I don't see a global recession in the sense that emerging markets will still grow robustly," Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC, told Bloomberg Television today in an interview from Cernobbio, Italy. "Certainly there's a risk of a double-dip recession in most advanced economies. One of the differences compared to the past is that we're running out of policy bullets."

A report due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington will show U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 68,000 in August, down from a 117,000 increase in July, according to economist estimates. The Labor Department release may also show the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1 percent.

"Employment is going to be a key issue for the U.S. for some time," Zhang Jingjing, an analyst at Nanhua Futures Co., said by phone from Beijing today. "And until there's some improvement in the job market, QE3 remains a real possibility and continues to be supportive of gold," she said, referring to so-called quantitative easing.

ETP Holdings
Exchange-traded-product holdings were at 2,144.1 metric tons yesterday, little changed since Aug. 29, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Assets reached a record 2,216.8 tons on Aug. 8.

Silver for December delivery in New York rose 2.5 percent to $42.57 an ounce. Platinum for October delivery was up 0.9 percent at $1,870.10 an ounce. Palladium for December delivery gained 0.5 percent to $794.05 an ounce.

HSBC Securities USA Inc. raised its 2012 and 2013 price forecasts for platinum and palladium as increased automotive and industrial demand is expected to outpace mine supply. Platinum will average $1,875 next year, up from a previous outlook of $1,750, and palladium will average $810, up from $750, New York- based analyst James Steel wrote in a report yesterday. He cut estimates for 2011 because of lower auto demand resulting from Japan's earthquake and tsunami in March.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.

Chinese investors driving gold prices higher

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 11:15 PM PDT

Record high gold prices have barely dampened the enthusiasm of chinese gold investors in August. Chinese jewellery retailers reported that gold purchases grew by up to 30 per cent compared to the ...

BrotherJohnF – Silver Update – 9.1.11

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 11:13 PM PDT

The always informative Brother John, "Boondoggle".

~TVR

Fantasy “Stock Wealth” Disappears

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 11:00 PM PDT

There goes your retirement savings...Again.

Phantom Gold Haunts GLD Vault Tour

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 09:22 PM PDT

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

As is obvious from the Kitco gold chart below, Thursday was a nothing day all over Planet Earth.  Volume continues to decline on a daily basis...and yesterday was no exception.

The same can be said of silver.  It was a nothing day as well...and volume was very light.

For whatever reason, the software that produces the HUI feed was not working properly yesterday...and there was no HUI chart generated, as it showed 0.00 all day long.  However, the XAU gold index was up 0.61%.  Looking in another spot on the Internet, I found that the HUI closed up 0.89% at 603.63 on the day.  But I still didn't find a chart that I could post.

No such problems existed with Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index.  It only posted a gain of 0.10%...but that's better than the alternative.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 308 gold, along with 79 silver contracts, were posted for delivery on Monday. The big short/issuer in gold was the Bank of Nova Scotia [303 contracts]...and the biggest long/stopper was JPMorgan [283 contracts] in its client account.

Of the 79 contracts posted for delivery in silver, ABN Amro delivered 64 of them...and the stoppers were pretty evenly divided, but they certainly included JPMorgan and the Bank of Nova Scotia.  The link to all that action is here.

For the second day in a row there was no report from either SLV or GLD.

For the first day of September, the U.S. Mint reported selling 42,000 silver eagles...and that was it.

Wednesday was another huge day over at the Comex-approved warehouses, as the frantic in/out activity that Ted Butler speaks of all the time, continued in full force.  All of the activity was confined to two warehouses...Scotia Mocatta and Brink's, Inc.  These two warehouses reported receiving 829,894 troy ounces of silver...and also reported shipping 1,967,481 ounces out the door, for a net decline of 1,137,587 ounces.  These are big numbers, dear reader...and they're definitely worth a look...and the link is here.

Despite the fact that it was pretty quiet in the precious metal markets yesterday, there were still a lot of stories that I thought were worth posting...and most of them are gold and silver related.

I'm not expecting any real fireworks until after the Labour Day long weekend, but under the circumstances we face today, you just never know.
How exchange-traded fund GLD lets you pretend to own gold. There's a vault with gold somewhere -- but whose vault, and whose gold? Gold Standard Comeback Enjoys Support.

¤ Critical Reads

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Central bank flight to Federal Reserve safety tops Lehman crisis

A key warning signal of global financial stress has shot above the extreme levels seen at the height of the Lehman crisis in 2008.

Data from the St Louis Fed shows that reserve funds from "official foreign accounts" have doubled since the start of the year, with a dramatic surge since the end of July when the eurozone debt crisis spread to Italy and Spain.

"This shows a pervasive loss of confidence in the European banking system," said Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors. "Central banks are worried about the security of their deposits so they are placing the money with the Fed."

The story is worth the read...and the graph alone makes it worth the trip.  This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering was posted late last night over at The Telegraph...and I thank reader David Ball for sending it along.  The link is here.

U.S. Is Set to Sue a Dozen Big Banks Over Mortgages

The federal agency that oversees the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is set to file suits against more than a dozen big banks, accusing them of misrepresenting the quality of mortgage securities they assembled and sold at the height of the housing bubble, and seeking billions of dollars in compensation.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency suits, which are expected to be filed in the coming days in federal court, are aimed at Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, among others, according to three individuals briefed on the matter.

This story was posted in The New York Time yesterday...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sharing it with us...and the link is here.

Securities regulators seek high-frequency secret sauce

Securities regulators have taken the unprecedented step of asking high-frequency trading firms to hand over the details of their trading strategies, and in some cases, their secret computer codes.

The requests for proprietary code and algorithm parameters by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), a Wall Street brokerage regulator, are part of investigations into suspicious market activity, said Tom Gira, executive vice president of FINRA's market regulation unit.

"It's not a fishing expedition or educational exercise. It's because there's something that's troubling us in the marketplace," he said in an interview.

This Reuters piece was imbedded in a posting over at zerohedge.com yesterday. I thank reader 'David in California' for bringing this very important story to our attention.  It's an absolute must read...and the link is here.

QE3 Coming September 21st - Noriel Roubini

Here's a story that was posted over at wealthwire.com yesterday...and is courtesy of Australian reader Wesley Legrand.

This is a 14-minute Bloomberg TV interview...and the link is here.

Gold Standard Comeback Enjoys Support

This is a cnbc.com story/interview from yesterday. Steve Liesman looks at the sagging U.S. dollar and putting the nation back on the gold standard, with James Grant, of Grant's Interest Rate Observer.  The 11:25 minute 'Squawk Box' interview is very much worth your time...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sharing it with us.  The link is here.

Dollar Turns Into "Confetti", Silver Will Reach Triple Digits - Jim Rogers

Here's a 4-minute audio interview with Jim Rogers over at Financial Survival Radio.  It's another posting over at wealthwire.com...and I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand once again for sending it along.  The link is here.

How exchange-traded fund GLD lets you pretend to own gold

Here's a GATA release from yesterday.  Imbedded in it is Doug Hornig's report on the GLD ETF that was posted in Casey's Daily Dispatch on Wednesday.  The report is headlined "Tracking Gold" and follows a preface by Casey Research Senior Analyst Vedran Vuk. This is a must read commentary...and the link is here.

Phantom gold haunts GLD vault tour

Here's a fascinating piece that turned up in yesterday's Financial Times out of London.

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) may have sought to defuse conspiracy theorists by opening up its massive London gold vault to CNBC, but instead it opened up a new line of inquiry.

Once inside, CNBC's Bob Pisani held up a random gold bar, its refiner's stamp clearly legible. As Zero Hedge points out in a blog post today -- the serial number on that bar, ZJ6752, does not appear on GLD's most recent bar list, dated August 31.

The FT story is posted in the clear in this GATA release, which is another must read...and the link is here.

There's a vault with gold somewhere -- but whose vault, and whose gold?

Seeing all these newly-minted stories about the GLD ETF in the media during the last couple of days was too much for GATA's secretary treasurer, Chris Powell.  In his day job, he is senior editor at the Journal Enquirer out of Manchester, Connecticut.

Chris has a few things to add to the Casey Research commentary, the Financial Times story...and the piece that appeared over at zerohedge.com.  He takes no prisoners in this must read GATA release...and the link is here.

Gold Wedding Bands Get Dumped for Tungsten

Skyrocketing gold prices have jewelers and cash-strapped couples clamoring for wedding bands made of less expensive metals like tungsten, cobalt and even stainless steel.

Over the past three months, tungsten, a steel-gray hard metal, has become an increasingly popular choice over gold with wedding band shoppers at Blue Nile, said John Baird, public relations director with the online jewelry seller.

"The response to our recent men's tungsten collection was immediate," said Baird, adding that the company subsequently debuted a men's Titanium wedding band collection in July.

I borrowed this money.cnn.com story from a GATA release yesterday...and the link is here

Gold Standard Comeback Enjoys Support

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 09:22 PM PDT

This is a cnbc.com story/interview from yesterday. Steve Liesman looks at the sagging U.S. dollar and putting the nation back on the gold standard, with James Grant, of Grant's Interest Rate Observer.  The 11:25 minute 'Squawk Box' interview is very much worth your time...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sharing it with us.  The link is here.

Looking forward to gold - New York Sun

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 09:22 PM PDT

Thursday's editorial in the New York Sun celebrates the rapidly-growing consideration of returning the United States to the use of gold as currency, an idea acknowledged at length this week by the cable news network CNBC.

This is today's last story...and it certainly falls into the must read category as well.  The link is here.

Gold over $2,000, silver over $50 in October if not sooner - James Turk

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 09:22 PM PDT

GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk, whose stunning predictions of gold and silver rallies this summer have come true with a vengeance, told King World News yesterday that he expects gold over $2,000 and silver over $50 by the end of October...if not by the end of September.

I stole the introductory paragraph from Chris Powell...and the link to the KWN blog is here.

Oliver Cromwell must be laughing over Ireland's forfeited gold

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 09:22 PM PDT

This next story is right up there with the GLD ETFs gold...and all other central bank gold.

GATA's Chris Powell has another field day with this story, which is also a must read...and the link is here.

How Much Upside is Really Left in Gold and Silver?

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 09:22 PM PDT

Yesterday's edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch has a very exciting article that was written by BIG GOLD editor Jeff Clark.

With gold a stone's throw away from $2,000 and already up 30% on the year, the objective investor might begin wondering how much higher both it and silver can climb. After all, gold is nearing its inflation-adjusted 1980 high - and that peak was a spike that lasted only one day.

So, how much return can we realistically expect in each metal at this point? And is one a better buy than the other? There are dozens of ways to calculate price projections, but I'm going to use data based strictly on past price behavior from the 1970s bull market.

read more

Bolivia Plans to Hike Mining Royalties

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 09:22 PM PDT

Bolivia's leftist government plans to raise mining royalties to take advantage of high global metals prices, Deputy Mining Minister Hector Cordova told Reuters in an interview late on Wednesday.

Cordova said a mining reform bill, which is in the final stages of analysis, would seek to consolidate state control over the industry. Foreign companies with operations in Bolivia include Japan's Sumitomo Corp, U.S.-based Coeur d'Alene, global commodities trader Glencore and Canada's Pan American Silver.

read more

Gold & Silver Market Morning, September 2, 2011

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 09:00 PM PDT

nice morning surprise rockets

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 08:39 PM PDT

Last night seemed dull, this morning up good.

Theres a vault with gold somewhere - but whose vault, and whose gold?

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 08:34 PM PDT

$1,500 or $2,000 Gold ?

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 08:30 PM PDT

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