saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Gold getting heavy resistance at $1900
- HP: A Long Shot For Leo Apotheker?
- 6 Stocks That Can Beat The Recession And Move Higher
- 10 Heavily Undervalued Stocks Rallying Despite Market Uncertainty
- GLD ETF Bigger Than SPY ETF
- Gold on verge of major correction?
- Marc Faber: Buy these dividend stocks now
- New reports suggest BP's Deepwater Horizon well is leaking again
- Where gold's parabolic rise could stop
- Gold Nears $1,900 - Venezuela Formally Requests Gold Holdings Held by BOE Ship by Sea
- Currencies Waver, Stocks Go Back-and-forth - What Will Be the Outcome for Gold?
- Gold and Oil Thoughts and what is Next
- Inflation adjusted Gold Price
- View From the Turret: Floundering Fundamentals
- India and China account for 52% of global gold demand
- Links 8/22/11
- Currencies And Bond Markets Rule The World
- Silver price streaking higher
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, August 22, 2011
- Charles Oliver: Value Propositions in Turbulent Times
- Rob McEwen: Boards Consider Minera-US Gold Merger
- Gold $2000 and Silver $100 by Years End
- Gold Hitting Record Highs: Time to Buy The Undervalued Gold Miners
- Gold price shining amid financial turmoil
- Gold Market Update
- Wealth Counted Up in Pieces of Paper
- Behaviour of Aussie Could Give Advance Warning of Where Stock Market is Headed
- Silver Market Update
- The Catalyst for Consolidation in the Gold Sector
- Calling Euro......U.S.A
| Gold getting heavy resistance at $1900 Posted: 22 Aug 2011 05:35 AM PDT Hmmmm, seems like I just posted a thread like this a few days ago. Go Gold!!!!~;) | ||||||||||
| HP: A Long Shot For Leo Apotheker? Posted: 22 Aug 2011 05:13 AM PDT By The 451 Group: Inorganic Growth: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is now, officially, Leo Apotheker's company. Since his somewhat surprising appointment as HP's chief executive last fall, Apotheker has been taking small steps while also dropping big hints that he would be recasting the tech giant. But few observers could have imagined the almost unprecedented scope of the transition that Apotheker laid out late Thursday: HP will be integrating the largest acquisition in the software industry in seven years while simultaneously looking into selling off its hardware business. Wall Street appears to be skeptical that HP can pull that off, as shares in the company on Friday sank to their lowest level since mid-2006. (Incidentally, that's just before Apotheker's predecessor, Mark Hurd, took over the company.) On their own, either one of HP's dramatic moves (working through the top-dollar acquisition of Autonomy Corp and possibly selling the world's largest PC maker) would be enough to Complete Story » | ||||||||||
| 6 Stocks That Can Beat The Recession And Move Higher Posted: 22 Aug 2011 04:48 AM PDT By Rougemont: Many investors are justifiably concerned with a possible new recession hitting the U.S. and the global economy. Unemployment remains high, consumer confidence has dropped in the face of the debt ceiling debate and ensuing downgrade of U.S. government debt. With all the fear and some comparing the current economic situation to a possible repeat of the recent financial crisis, it's important to remember that a recession does not mean an economic collapse. According to Investopedia, the definition of a recession: "The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country's gross domestic product (GDP), although the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not necessarily need to see this occur to call a recession." Read more here. Since many recessions only last a couple of quarters and only usually add up to being a small contraction in the economy, it often Complete Story » | ||||||||||
| 10 Heavily Undervalued Stocks Rallying Despite Market Uncertainty Posted: 22 Aug 2011 04:42 AM PDT By Follow My Alpha: The Net Profit Margin is a great profitability Ratio to review right off the bat when looking at a company. While it won't give investors a definitive answer on a company's future potential it will give investors a good idea on how profitable its operations are. This profitability Ratio specifically illustrates how much of each dollar earned is translated into profits. A company that can expand its net margin should be rewarded with a higher stock price because this leads to higher profitability. We ran a screen for companies that outperformed the market last week and hold a sound Net Margin TTM (X>5%). From this narrowed pool we then screened for firm's with a book value of less than 1.
1. NewStar Financial, Inc. (NEWS)
Complete Story » | ||||||||||
| Posted: 22 Aug 2011 02:52 AM PDT Here is a blurb I received from TD Ameritrade which quotes an article in today's WSJ: GLD, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, is now bigger in terms of assets than SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF. GLD has $77 billion in assets, compared with $75 billion for SPDR, according to Dave Lutz at Stifel Nicolaus. [...] | ||||||||||
| Gold on verge of major correction? Posted: 22 Aug 2011 02:00 AM PDT David Banister- www.MarketTrendForecast.com Just under two weeks ago I wrote about gold likely running to a final top with various levels ranging from 1862 to 1907 per ounce as likely. So far, we bottomed with a pivot at $1730 which I mentioned to my paying subscribers and we have run to as high as $1898 per ounce counting futures trading on August 22nd. What should we expect now as the most likely intermediate trading pattern for Gold? Clearly, Gold is overbought on traditional technical measures such as RSI, MACD, and Moving Averages and more, so that is one warning flag. To wit, Gold historically pulls back pretty aggressively anytime it has run much above its 20 week EMA line. On a daily chart that stands at about $1730 per ounce, and on a weekly chart around $1580 per ounce. This week marks Fibonacci week #8 from the 1480 pivot lows of a wave 4 pattern I outlined for my subscribers as likely to turn gold higher to 1730 plus. In addition, we are 34 Fibonacci months into this 5 wave Bull Run from the October 2008 $681 lows. I use Elliott Wave Theory combined with sentiment indicators and other measures to help determine major buy and sell pivots for Gold, and this methodology has been extremely accurate and successful for years. Right now I can count Gold as coming into a final 5th wave thrust to all- time highs with sentiment running at huge extremes and technical patterns screamingly overbought. This action in Gold over the last many weeks reminds me of the final blow-off top of the NASDAQ in 2000 as it ran from 4000 to 5000 in a few months and exhausted the buyers. This 5 wave pattern began 34 months ago and the final 5th wave usually drags as many taxi cab drivers onto the back of the Bull just in time to dump them off with a bag in their hand and no ride. The bottom line is Gold is in a 13 year upwards cycle, and we are in about year 10 and it's due for a likely pause in the uptrend, and certainly a correction of 10-15% would be normal in any massive bull cycle to kick all the bulls and latecomers off the back of the charging Bull. This pause should be a Primary wave 4 consolidation, where 2 and 4 are corrective and 1, 3, and 5 are bullish cycles. Below is the latest chart on gold, not counting the overnight $1898 highs last night, but you can see that Gold is above the normal pivot high lines where we have seen major corrections over the past 34 month up cycle. A major parabolic blow off rise is of course possible, but hedging long positions and or considering shorting gold for the more aggressive players is advised: Consider joining us at TMTF for forecasts and tradable pivot ideas on the SP500, Gold, and Silver with stunning accuracy. Check us out at www.MarketTrendForecast.com for a 33% discount coupon or to sign up for occasional updates. | ||||||||||
| Marc Faber: Buy these dividend stocks now Posted: 22 Aug 2011 01:40 AM PDT From Newsmax: Perhaps surprisingly, consistently bearish Gloom, Boom & Doom Report editor and investor Marc Faber still advocates buying stocks. "I happen to feel that somewhere in the world we can make seven percent on equities for the next 10 years," Faber tells MarketWatch. "I can buy you a portfolio of high-dividend stocks in Asia that would..." Read full article... More from Marc Faber: Marc Faber: The U.S. dollar is headed to "zero" Dr. Doom Marc Faber expects a huge rally in stocks "Dr. Doom" Marc Faber shocks CNBC anchor with rant on poor people | ||||||||||
| New reports suggest BP's Deepwater Horizon well is leaking again Posted: 22 Aug 2011 01:32 AM PDT From Washington's Blog: I noted on Thursday that billion-dollar verdict winner trial attorney Stuart Smith alleges that his contacts say BP's Deepwater Horizon oil well is leaking again. Smith notes today: Hours after we posted our initial report on Wednesday, the Associated Press in London ran a story that BP admitted to "investigating a new sheen in the Gulf of Mexico," but that it was not near "any existing BP operations." Only hours after the AP story hit, the Times-Picayune out of New Orleans ran an article stating... Read full article... More Cruxallaneous: Your emergency preparedness plans aren't complete without this This controversial solution to unemployment could put 20 million people back to work Astounding FOX NEWS and CNN footage... networks disgrace themselves over Ron Paul | ||||||||||
| Where gold's parabolic rise could stop Posted: 22 Aug 2011 01:29 AM PDT From Kimble Charting Solutions: A few weeks ago, the "Power of the Pattern" was suggesting the next key upside price target for gold was $1,900, per the chart below. At the time of the post, gold was priced at $1,641. Did $1,900 seem unrealistic less than three weeks ago? Gold has added over $200 per oz since... As can been seen in the chart, during the last nine years, each time gold has hit channel resistance, it has backed off for a while, until it found support at... Read full article (with chart)... More on gold: This is how the gold mania will begin This could be the most important gold story of the year The stars could be aligning for a spectacular gold rally | ||||||||||
| Gold Nears $1,900 - Venezuela Formally Requests Gold Holdings Held by BOE Ship by Sea Posted: 22 Aug 2011 01:29 AM PDT | ||||||||||
| Currencies Waver, Stocks Go Back-and-forth - What Will Be the Outcome for Gold? Posted: 22 Aug 2011 01:00 AM PDT SunshineProfits | ||||||||||
| Gold and Oil Thoughts and what is Next Posted: 22 Aug 2011 12:15 AM PDT The past few weeks have been fast moving with fearful investors clearly in control. As we all know fear is the most powerful force in the financial market and when the hedge funds and the masses get spooked they all dart in one direction like a school of fish. Watching the charts and volume levels it's clear that money was/is flowing out of stocks and into precious metals as the risk off safe play. This was explained in last week's report on how the GLD etf can be used as a fear/sentiment indicator (read here). To make a long story short, I feel as though Euro-Land is going through something similar to what we (the USA) went through in late 2008 and first quarter of 2009. Keeping my analysis simple and to the point it's very likely that Euro-Land will resolve their financial issues and their stock markets will bottom in the next month or so… If their market bottoms, so will the US market, which will be perfect timing as the market is currently oversold, sentiment is now turning bearish and we have had a sizable pullback in line with normal bull market corrections. My thinking looking forward 2-6 weeks is that stocks rally, financials rocket higher, bond prices fall, gold falls and oil rises as it will be a risk off trading environment again. Of course all this would happen after Euro-Land resolves some of their key financial issues. I'm being very optimistic here but we could be nearing a major low that could kick start another massive 1 year rally. Stepping away from that longer term outlook let's take a peek at the shorter term trends for oil, gold and stocks. Crude Oil 60 Minute Chart (1 month view)
Gold 4 Hour Chart (One Month View)
SPY ETF Weekly Chart (Two Year View)
Weekly Trading Conclusion: Consider subscribing so that you will be consistently informed, have 24/7 Email access to me with questions, and also get Gold, Silver, SP500 and Oil Trend Analysis on a regular basis. Subscribe now http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php Chris Vermeulen | ||||||||||
| Posted: 21 Aug 2011 11:42 PM PDT I guess this is a bubble you fuckin CNBC muts.   | ||||||||||
| View From the Turret: Floundering Fundamentals Posted: 21 Aug 2011 10:57 PM PDT
After a brief respite in the first few sessions last week, the market resumed it's downward spiral, with the Dow once again closing the week below the 11,000 mark. Individual and institutional traders alike are becoming increasingly skeptical of the economic environment as data points continue to point to a slowdown both domestically and abroad. Several of the major investment banks (JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo & Citigroup) downgraded their assessment of US economic growth, while GDP estimates were also revised lower for Greece and Spain. With this negative backdrop, it is becoming more difficult for investors to justify significant allocations to equities. Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal put it bluntly:
Of course, we have to respect the price action on both sides of the ledger, and with more shorts piling into the market, there is certainly the possibility of a short squeeze somewhere along the way. But as consumer sentiment readings continue to show more pessimism, employment numbers are revised lower, and debt issues continue to be "patched" instead of solved, the risk of lower prices is significant – even when short-term measures indicate the market is "oversold." Heading into the week, the Mercenary trade book has two primary themes. We are short traditional equities with particular exposure to base metal miners and a few momentum reversal names. Secondly, we are long gold and precious metal miners which continue to attract capital as managers move assets into "safer" areas and also as a defense against a declining US dollar. We're 2/3 of the way through what has been a very profitable trading month, but with uncertainty still a major component of this environment, we'll be keeping close tabs on our risk points and monitoring the action carefully. Below are a few of the areas we're focusing on as we kick off another week… Niche Energy Opportunities Despite the fact that economic concerns have driven the price of oil lower, there are still some interesting opportunities in the energy sector. Want to trade like a Global Macro pro? Learn the secrets of the Global Macro titans. Sign up for your FREE Report now! There has been a lot of press covering the price of WTI oil versus Brent crude. There is a glut of oil in the North American heartland with limited pipeline capacity to transport this oil to refiners in the Gulf region. Higher supply and limited refiner demand has led to lower WTI prices – resulting in a record "crack spread" between the different oil prices. Refiners with access to this oil such as Western Refining Inc. (WNR) are enjoying strong profits as they pay less for WTI oil and still enjoy high sales prices for gasoline and other refined products. In addition to the niche refiners, pipeline companies are working to bridge the gap by building new pipelines to connect WTI crude to Gulf refiners. Since these companies generate revenue by moving product (rather than based on the actual price of oil or refined products), they can continue to be profitable even if oil prices are lower. Pipelines set up as Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) may also benefit from their unique dividend structure. These companies are legally obligated to pay out the majority of their operating profits to investors (or "unitholders") and there are tax benefits to investors including some of the cash flow being characterized as "return of capital." In a zero interest rate world, these dividends become very attractive to investors who need to generate regular income. This demand for income could help to support the stock prices and help pipeline companies continue to outperform.
Highflyers Crapping Out Individual as well as institutional investors are becoming increasingly risk-averse. As these investors unload risk and try to create more stability in their portfolios, high-multiple momentum names are finally being sold. This is a bit of a difficult area to trade, because when markets inevitably rebound (either as a temporary bounce or a more sustainable rally), investors quickly turn to these high-beta names for better performance.On the other hand, when markets are falling sharply, momentum names can be some of the most profitable short positions for nimble traders. The Mercenary Live Feed is currently holding profitable short positions in both Netflix Inc. (NFLX) as well as Amazon.com (AMZN). Because of the significant volatility of these names, our position size is scaled back a bit, but both are adding solid gains to our August performance. Another momentum name worth considering is Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR). The company has had a sensational growth period, striking distribution deals with Wal-Mart and even Starbucks. With a current PE above 50, investors are pricing in plenty of additional growth – which could make the stock vulnerable if these assumptions end up being too aggressive. Last week, GMCR broke below the 50 day exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since February. Of course there's nothing magical about this technical line, but it can be a great momentum indicator and also a signal to trend followers. A brief rally or consolidation might give us a chance to short this momentum name. But keep in mind, these momentum names are some of the bulls favorites and at least for the next few weeks they could be vulnerable to sharp rebounds if the bulls are able to muster any confidence.
 Is Gold Parabolic Yet? There's been a lot of media coverage for gold prices with plenty of speculation that a top is quickly approaching. Of course, from a trading perspective, we're much more interested in making money than coming up with an accurate prediction. So I won't tell you that I believe gold will hit $2,500 per ounce, $5,000 per ounce, or any other useless price level. The key point with gold is that precious metals are in a decidedly bullish environment. That's not a prediction, it's an observation. Precious metal prices have been moving higher and we have been profiting from the trend along the way. As commentators call for an end to the trend and explain how gold is entering the "final stages of a blowoff top," we should keep in mind that often the last stages of a bull market are the most profitable for bulls. Yes, we're managing our risk points carefully. Yes, we have taken some profits off the table along the way. Yes, we do want to protect our unrealized profits and avoid making a round-trip with nothing to show for our efforts. That's just smart trading. But just because the yellow metal is hitting record highs, doesn't mean that a reversal is imminent. Trading with the trend is a great way to compound existing profits and for the time being we continue to have significant exposure to gold spot prices as well as the miners which are benefiting from higher selling prices. Newmont Mining (NEM) is one of the large-cap gold miners that has recently pushed above resistance. Many of the miners haven't initially followed gold's rise because investors didn't believe prices would stay high long enough to affect the long-term profits of these miners. But as the gold rally looks increasingly like the "real deal" investors in the miners are adjusting long-term profit models and the stocks are responding.
Speaking of gold prices, the early indications are for another record high as we open another week of trading. It's going to get interesting over the next few sessions as we deal with more economic data as well as rhetoric coming from the Jackson Hole economic summit. Watch those risk points closely and trade 'em well this week! | ||||||||||
| India and China account for 52% of global gold demand Posted: 21 Aug 2011 10:30 PM PDT Global gold demand experienced a sharp setback in the second quarter (Q2) of 2011 compared with the same period of last year. This announcement came as something of a surprise, juxtaposed as it was on ... | ||||||||||
| Posted: 21 Aug 2011 09:53 PM PDT Weatherwatch: The many Welsh words for rain Guardian (hat tip Buzz Potamkin) Who we gonna call? Quackbuster! Guardian. I'd be happier with this if he went after the overprescription of psychoactive meds with equal vigor. I recall when anybody who went to a chiropractor or an acupuncturist was treated as a foolish victim of con men, and now both treatments are acknowledged as being useful for certain ailments. Feinstein: "Service members continue to receive drug linked to permanent brain damage" FireDogLake Bite Counter is like a pedometer for your mouth USA Today (hat tip Buzz Potamkin) Motorola's Value Found in 18 Patents Bloomberg (hat tip Buzz Potamkin) Jubilant Rebels Control Much of Tripoli New York Times Swedish Banks Told to Gird for Second European Credit Crisis, Frisell Says Bloomberg. From last week but still germane. Tu quoque is not a eurozone crisis solution FT Alphaville. Pre echoed by LOL Greece: YO'MAMA-NOMICS 101 (hat tip Richard Smith) Family finances 'worse than in recession' Independent (hat tip Buzz Potamkin) Big trouble ahead MacroBusiness China's blindfolds and bullet trains MarketWatch Taking the Justice Out of the Justice System Karen Greenberg, TomGram Obama's Base Problem Public Policy Polling (hat tip Debra C) Watch: Rick Perry Really Is Even Dumber Than George Bush Pensito Review (hat tip reader furzy mouse) Republicans at home face Tea Party-style protests from liberal, labor groups The Hill (hat tip reader David C) Prostitutes Flood Vallejo After Bankrupt City Slashes Police 33% Bloomberg (hat tip Buzz Potamkin) PFI: the conjuring trick exposed Guardian. Debunking public-private partnerships. Walmart's online movies overtake Amazon Financial Times (hat tip Buzz Potamkin) Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2T in Loans Bloomberg (hat tip reader Carol B) Wall Street rating agencies' corrupt system Al Franken, CNN (hat tip reader Glen S) This Is All Kinds Of Wrong of the Day The Daily What. Another mortgage horror story. QOTD: Andrew Smithers Says "Sell The Next 10% Rally" Barry Ritholtz. My sentiments exactly. Homeowners Need Help New York Times. The editorial calls for principal reductions. Glad to see that this idea is being finally treated as legitimate, but the odds of the Obama administration doing anything other than cosmetic principal reductions (as in they get the soundbite but don't ruffle the banks) are zero. Corporate Interests Threaten Child Welfare New York Times. Let's see if this argument gets traction. Antidote du jour:
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| Currencies And Bond Markets Rule The World Posted: 21 Aug 2011 09:32 PM PDT "Commodity Currencies Only Refuge as Intervention Upends Havens Amid Rout." Throughout the mess of the past weekend and on Monday August 8, the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen were to the 'go to' safety and security currencies. With the Swiss at 139.49 high the central banks warned the speculators they better look out for intervention. The Swiss is still near its recent highs but we think things will now pullback and calm down somewhat on these currencies. -Editor Premier Currency Swiss Franc Rising Steadily As Other Fiat Currencies Diminish. "The currency havens are disappearing as Switzerland and Japan intervene in foreign-exchange markets, while U.S. and European debt loads undermine credit ratings. The biggest beneficiaries in the $4 trillion-a-day currency market may be Norway's Krone and the Australia and New Zealand dollars, according to Frankfurt Trust, which oversees about $23 billion. All have debt that is less than 48% of gross domestic product, compared with about 60% in the U.S., 77% in the U.K. and 79% in Germany, according to data compiled by Bloomberg." "The Swiss franc and Japanese yen, which had become favorites of traders skittish about holding dollars and Euros, became perilous after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates and Japan sold its currency. The Yen weakened as much as -3.2% on August 4, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The U.S. came within days of defaulting and Italian and Spanish bond yields approached levels that spurred bailouts of Greece and Ireland." "You want to stay away from the Euro and Dollar because this is really an ugly pair and there are alternatives," Christoph Kind, the head of asset allocation in Frankfurt at Frankfurt Trust, said in a telephone interview last week. "I like currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Swedish Krona and the Norwegian Krone. They are AAA-rated countries with currency they can manage and handle, with pretty liquid markets." "Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S.'s AAA credit rating for the first time on August 5, lowering the ranking to AA+. The company kept the outlook at "negative," saying it was becoming less confident that Congress will end Bush-era tax cuts or tackle entitlements." "The Yen weakened as much as 4.1% against the dollar on August 4, the most since October, 2008, after the Bank of Japan intervened to protect the nation's economic recovery. Japan acted as the Yen approached its post World War II high of 76.25 to the dollar, reached on March 17 in the aftermath of the nation's biggest-ever earthquake that spawned a deadly tsunami and nuclear disaster. The Yen dropped -2.1% last week to 78.40." "Japan may have spent a record amount intervening to stem the Yen's gains, based on projections of deposits held by financial institutions at the Bank of Japan. The central bank estimated that deposits climbed to a total 32.3 trillion Yen ($414 billion), it said in a statement on August 5 in Tokyo. The figure suggests the government sold about 4.5 trillion Yen, a record, according to Yuichi Takahashi, market economist at Totan Research Co., a money-market brokerage in Tokyo. A day before Japan acted, the (Swiss Franc) franc fell -1.9% versus the Euro as the SNB lowered its benchmark rate to "as close to zero as possible" from 0.25%." "The Zurich-based bank was countering gains that have pushed the Franc up about +37% against the dollar and +27% versus the Euro in the past year. The Franc still strengthened about +3.2% against the Euro to 1.09541 last week and traded today at 1.0707." "Intervention is becoming a bigger trend," said Geoffrey Yu, a foreign-exchange strategist at UBS AG in London. "It's a trend that is going to continue unless we see a massive reversal in market moves, which doesn't look likely." "It gained for a second day today after the ECB signaled it's ready to start buying Italian and Spanish bonds to tame the sovereign-debt crisis. In a statement issued in the name of the ECB president after an emergency Governing Council conference call last night, the Frankfurt-based central bank said it will "actively implement" its bond-purchase program." "The 17-nation European currency (Euro) has dropped -2.2% in the past year amid credit-ranking downgrades into so-called junk status of nations including Greece and Portugal. The dollar fell -10% in the past year, the worst performer as measured by the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, as the U.S. recovery faltered and concern mounted the government would default amid a standoff between President Obama and the House of Representatives over raising the nation's $14.3 trillion debt limit. The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics," New York-based S&P said." "It's a kind of an ugly-dog competition and it's not really that you prefer a currency, it's just which one is under less pressure at a particular time," said Frances Hudson, who helps oversee about $257 billion as a global strategist at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh." "The committee of bond dealers and investors that advises the U.S. Treasury said in quarterly feedback presented to the government, published on August 3, the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency "appears to be slipping." "The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, which includes representatives from firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Pacific Investment Management Co., said the out-performance of haven currencies and those from emerging nations is debasing the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, according to comments included in the group's discussion charts. International Monetary Fund data show the dollar accounted for 60.7% of global currency reserves in the first quarter, down from 72.7% a decade ago. The Euro's share fell to 26.6% from a peak of 27.9% in 2009." "The lack of safe-haven credentials" applies to the dollar and the Euro, said Alan Ruskin, the global head of Group- of-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. "That's what is funneling us into some very small markets, which are having a very hard time accommodating these flows." – Liz Capo McCormick, Lukanyo Mnyanda and Allison Bennett 8-8-11 Bloomberg.net         This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||||||||
| Posted: 21 Aug 2011 09:30 PM PDT The gold price hit a new nominal record at over $1,890 per ounce in early trading today, with fears about the stability of the world's banking system continuing to drive investors towards safe ... | ||||||||||
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, August 22, 2011 Posted: 21 Aug 2011 09:00 PM PDT | ||||||||||
| Charles Oliver: Value Propositions in Turbulent Times Posted: 21 Aug 2011 07:00 PM PDT It's a good time to stock up on gold stocks, according to Charles Oliver, senior portfolio manager with Sprott Asset Management, who sees a number of the equities trading at their lowest prices of... Visit the aureport.com for more information and for a free newsletter | ||||||||||
| Rob McEwen: Boards Consider Minera-US Gold Merger Posted: 21 Aug 2011 06:43 PM PDT | ||||||||||
| Gold $2000 and Silver $100 by Years End Posted: 21 Aug 2011 06:30 PM PDT | ||||||||||
| Gold Hitting Record Highs: Time to Buy The Undervalued Gold Miners Posted: 21 Aug 2011 06:17 PM PDT | ||||||||||
| Gold price shining amid financial turmoil Posted: 21 Aug 2011 06:15 PM PDT | ||||||||||
| Posted: 21 Aug 2011 06:10 PM PDT | ||||||||||
| Wealth Counted Up in Pieces of Paper Posted: 21 Aug 2011 06:01 PM PDT Until August 15, 1971, wealth was tallied in units of a real and natural thing – gold. It measured out the world's other real things – its resources and its output. Its main advantage was that it couldn't be diddled. That turned the authorities against it; they couldn't make more of it. Nuestra Senora de Atocha, a Spanish galleon, sank in a storm off the Florida coast in 1622. When it was found in the 1970s, its treasure of gold doubloons was just as valuable as it was when the ship left Havana 350 years before. But, post 1971, we have a new, avant-garde money system. Wealth is counted up in pieces of paper...or as electronic 'information.' Each unit has no real value of its own. It only represents a claim against real goods and services. And each year, it purchases fewer of them. What is most remarkable about this freakish new money system is that it is always on the road to Hell but never seems to get there. Since 1971, paper currencies have lost value at a breakneck speed. You'd think their necks would be broken by now. In 1972, we bought a gallon of gasoline for 25 cents. Now, it is 16 times that much. Gold has gone up 50 times...for a 98% loss to the dollar holder. If this pattern continues for another 40 years, a gold doubloon will buy about what it does today. A dollar will buy nothing. And then, along came S&P with more bad news: not only is the dollar disappearing, but if you lend money to the US government you might not get it back. The stock market took the news badly. But bond investors bought with even more lusty recklessness than before. It was as if they really didn't want the money back anyway. Yields on US 10-year notes fell from around 3% to scarcely more than 2%, giving investors a negative real yield. But the fall in yields should not come as a surprise. Japan's government debt lost its Triple A status in 2002. Yields did not rise. Instead, they stayed between 1% and 2%. Then, last week, Japanese 10-year notes – IOUs of the most deeply indebted nation on earth – reached an all-time high. Yields fell below 1%, briefly. You may think that investors have lost their minds. But no more than usual. It's not the nominal rate that investors care about; it's the real rate. For 20 years, stocks and property in Japan have gotten hammered. Bond buyers are the only ones who've made any money. Deflation takes prices down. Even a zero interest rate gives them a positive return. And it isn't even taxable. And now the US Fed follows in Japan's footsteps. The Fed announced last week that it would continue to lend money for two more years, asking little more than a 'thank you' in return. Zero is the going rate at the Fed's lending window – just as it is in Japan. When Richard Nixon implemented his new monetary system, 4 decades ago, he set in motion a huge expansion in the world's supply of cash and credit. Gold was limited. Paper money was left to run wild. Ben Bernanke famously announced how it worked in a 2002 speech, entitled "Deflation: Making Sure it Doesn't Happen Here," he explained: ...the US government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of US dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the US government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation. Bernanke made it sound like a piece of cake. He should have appended a footnote. Inflating is easy when the credit cycle is expanding. When an economy transforms itself from grasshopper to ant, it gets harder. People switch from borrowing, spending and investing to exterminating debt and hoarding cash. That's why none of the stimulus measures – fiscal or monetary – has done any significant good. And it is why no policy adjustment, short of debt cancellation or hyperinflation, will make any damned difference. The whole situation is one for the history books. Four decades of paper money – with effectively no limit on credit expansion – have created mountains of debt in all the developed countries. Now, private sector debts are being sloughed off and asset prices wobble – making investors fearful and skittish. The more they sweat, the more they seek the safety of US Treasurys, and the lower interest rates go. Low rates delay Armageddon...if Japan is any indication...almost indefinitely. The economy continues on the road to Hell...and picks up speed. When it finally arrives, we don't know. But we bet the price of gold will be higher when we find out. Regards, Bill Bonner | ||||||||||
| Behaviour of Aussie Could Give Advance Warning of Where Stock Market is Headed Posted: 21 Aug 2011 05:39 PM PDT --If you happen to see the punch-drunk Australian dollar today, tell it to get its act together. This is no way for a would-be reserve currency to behave. The Aussie has been stumbling about all year long like a drunken sailor. We need to know if it takes itself seriously or not. --Of course, what the Aussie thinks of itself is not that important. That might come as a shock to some people. Self-esteem is pretty important in the modern world. The modern world encourages us to believe that how we feel about something matters more than anything else. But it's what other people think of the Aussie that will matter more in the coming days.
--And why does it matter at all? Well, here we are in the midst of a financial storm. The weekend has given us all the relaxing illusion that the crisis is off the boil. Unfortunately it's not. The behaviour of the Aussie could give some advance warning of where the stock market is headed too. Take a look at the chart below. Source: www.stockcharts.com --The Aussie is a proxy for growth and risk. When it's on the up, you'll find investors keen to buy stocks. A strong Aussie means foreign money is hunting for higher yielding Australian assets. And if foreign money is out and about in Australia, it means foreign investors feel like it's safe to be out and about. --Conversely, when 10-year US Treasury yields reach record lows (as they did last) week, it means everyone is terrified and prefers cash or liquidity to stocks and risk. So what's it going to be this week? Will investors shrug off the collapse of Europe's banking system and have one last roll of the dice in the stock market? --We don't mean to be flippant about it. And to contradict ourselves, self-esteem DOES matter in today's market. It matters in the sense that how people feel about things affects their behaviour. For the longest time, no one felt worried about Europe's debt problems because no one thought about them. --But once people began to think about what a credit depression really means, they began to feel a lot worse about it. And feeling worse, they acted accordingly and began to fear the worst. Fear breeds panic. Panic breeds selling. --A nervous system can only stand so much high-tension, adrenalin pumping fear before it must relax or collapse in exhaustion. This week could be one of those weeks where investors lay down on the floor and grab a nap. You wouldn't blame them. --They'd still be lazy, though. The liquidation of the world's Greatest Ever credit bubble is going to grind a lot of people down. If you want a bigger-picture understanding of what that means for the Australian stock market, check out Murray's Slipstream Trader video update from last week. Leave a comment, and if you like, subscribe to his channel – it doesn't cost anything – and you'll automatically be updated when a new video is posted. --The best part of these quiet spells in the market is that they allow you to think more clearly about what you want to buy and what you want to sell. You don't want to be making your strategy up on the fly, when you're at your most emotional. You want to know exactly what you're going to do if prices go lower or higher. --For example, the Aussie gold price is up nearly $300 in the last 30 days. That's a 20% rise in less than a month. There was a lot of panic buying. And of course, the drunken behaviour of the Aussie dollar had something to do with that. --Aussie gold has had a kind of Great Awakening, as you can see from the chart below. It made an all-time high about $1500/oz in 2009, had a crack at that level in 2010, failed, and then did a whole lot of nothing for the next year and a half. Then, all of sudden, bang. The Aussie gold price got religion and off it went.  --It would be nice to buy gold at cheaper prices. Most ordinary investors don't give much thought to the idea that we're in a bear market for paper money. Most of them wouldn't even know what that means. But that's okay. It means gold's march higher is punctuated with quick tactical retreats. These are the best times to buy. --While we wait for the next such retreat, we've worked with Diggers and Drillers editor Alex Cowie to have a look at gold and silver stocks in Australia. Alex has jumped on a plane again to make a site visit. This time he's headed east, to an undisclosed location in the American West. Details to follow. --Meanwhile, on a sun-drenched Sunday morning a friend asked us the following question over bacon and eggs on Fitzroy Street, "Name me one single thing that could send the Aussie market 10% higher in the next month. I bet you can't. The end is near, my friend." --This caught your editor by surprise. This particular friend, an Australian, is never really bothered by anything. The fact that he's bearish had us worried and reexamining our position. --"Well," we answered, "This prostitution and credit card scandal with a Labor MP in New South Wales could do it." --"How?" --"You're the Australian. You should know. If the guy is forced to resign and the government loses the by-election, that's it." --"What's it?" --"This government. This carbon tax. This mining tax. It's all up in the air and out the door and dead on the floor and all that. The market might love that. You'd trade the uncertainty of political leadership for the certainty that nothing would be done on any of those issues this year. That might just do the trick." --"Hmm." --"Yeah. It could go both ways. With no mining tax and no carbon tax you get a much bigger Federal deficit. That might scare the market. But even that is mixed. The bigger deficit is negative for the Aussie dollar. But a weaker Aussie dollar is just what exporters need. It's their last best hope to avoid more layoffs." --"If all that could happen because one guy resigns his seat, there's no way he'll resign!" --"You never know. The government has been using the public's credit card for years to basically do the same thing. And I mean governments of both parties. They borrow money. They spend it on the things they personally favour. They enrich their friends. They bribe the people who vote for them. They punish their enemies. It's the Middle Ages all over. Different oligarchs. Different serfs. Same basic system." --"Yes, exactly. People don't mind that. They don't even realise it. Or if they do, they're for it. We're all happy voting ourselves other people's money. Why would people get upset now?" --"Well, people expect fraud from 'the system'. In an abstract sense, most people expect life to be unfair and government to be corrupt. It's just the way things are. There's nothing we can do about it. We just live with it. But that's only in the abstract sense." --"Go on." --"It's different when it's just one guy blatantly doing it. When you see one guy lording it over the common people and abusing his privileges and living like in regal entitlement, that upsets people. A system? You can't do anything about that. But one guy allegedly using the company credit card to pay for hookers and champagne? If something can't be done about that kind of unfairness, people begin to lose confidence in the whole system." --"And then you'd have London." --"Yeah. But that's London. You have a permanent underclass. A financial oligarchy that's sent all the jobs packing and tried to bribe the population with benefits instead. You don't think that could happen here do you?" --"Do you?" Dan Denning | ||||||||||
| Posted: 21 Aug 2011 05:38 PM PDT | ||||||||||
| The Catalyst for Consolidation in the Gold Sector Posted: 21 Aug 2011 05:35 PM PDT The Gold and Silver business is one that naturally involves consolidation. The industry product is the same and the business is such that mergers and acquisitions are commonplace. As many readers know, the secular bear market of the 1980s and 1990s had an obvious impact on the exploration side of the business. Larger mining companies cut exploration budgets because they had to. Fast forward to today and we know that has impacted supply and the ability of the large companies (who survived the bear market) to grow organically. Hence, mergers, acquisitions and takeovers will only increase. Yet we haven't seen much of this activity despite a raging bull market in the metals. One thing to focus on is the performance of the large caps (GDX) relative the mid-caps and the larger juniors (GDXJ). The large-caps gains since 2008 occurred mostly from October 2008 to May 2009. In 2009 and 2010, the mid-caps and the large juniors performed much better than the large caps. This means that the relatively speaking it was becoming more expensive for the average acquirer to make an acquisition. However, as the chart shows, the large caps (GDX) have begun to outperform the smaller companies (GDXJ). Also, the large caps are very close to a big breakout while GDXJ is lagging behind. It appears likely that the large caps, which are poised for a major breakout, will outperform over the next few months. This means that in some cases a potential acquirer will see its currency (its stock) rise in relation to a potential acquisition. If company A wants to acquire company B and company A's stock rises by 20% and company's B stock rises by 5%, then the acquisition becomes cheaper and less dilutive. The last time the larger companies outperformed was in late 2008 and early 2009. That wasn't exactly a time you'd expect such companies to be making aggressive acquisitions. Today, Gold is raging and the market will soon demand growth from the large companies. Finally, unlike in 2009-2010 the larger stocks are performing better in nominal terms and better in real terms. The latter is crucial as it enables them to acquire assets at a better cost. So how do investors play this development? In our premium service, we've focused on larger companies that have immediate growth potential are trending higher. Ultimately performance will filter down to the smaller companies and it will be time to add some risk to your portfolio. Additionally, one should focus on the smaller companies that have growth potential or are likely to be acquired. If you'd be interested in professional guidance then we invite you to consider our premium service. Good Luck! Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
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| Posted: 21 Aug 2011 05:30 PM PDT Asia's doing $1885........over to you guys soon.........lets see ya at $2,000 :elefant::elefant::elefant::565::565::565: |
Welcome to another week of market drama…
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