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Sunday, August 21, 2011

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Is High-Frequency Trading Causing Higher Volatility?

Posted: 21 Aug 2011 05:37 AM PDT

By Investment U:

By Justin Dove

Where were you on August 9, 2011?

Alright, it wasn't some landmark event like Black Monday. Heck, it wasn't even the 2010 Flash Crash. But to Art Cashin, it was one of the wildest days for the stock markets in 50-plus years.

"I've been lucky enough to be in this business over 50 years and have seen lots of things, from the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Kennedy Assassination to the Crash of '87 and the 2008 meltdown," wrote Cashin, Director of Floor Operations at UBS Financial Services (NYSE: UBS). "Still, (August 9) was rather special… One of the most frenetic and bizarre trading sessions that I can recall."

Stocks were enjoying quite a rally on August 9 after days of sharp losses due to debt concerns and the U.S. downgrade. Then, around 2 p.m., the Fed released a statement that sent the markets into free-fall. By


Complete Story »

Silver Market Update

Posted: 21 Aug 2011 05:28 AM PDT

Although we have seen a quite strong rally by silver over the past week as expected, it is hard to reconcile the prospects for a continued rally in silver with the outlook for a substantial reaction by gold soon. This throws our wave count into question and opens up the risk of silver reversing back down from the upper trend channel return line shown on our 6-month chart that it hit on Friday when it enjoyed a strong up day, and also highlights the possibility that the action of the past several months is a bearish Rising Wedge that will be followed by renewed decline, although for this scenario to become a reality, the price would have to break down beneath the lower supporting trendline of tentative converging channel shown.

Guest Post: Photos Show Oil At BP’s Deepwater Horizon Gulf Spill Site

Posted: 21 Aug 2011 04:50 AM PDT

By Washington's Blog


BP Gulf Oil Spill: Leaking Again?

I noted on Thursday that billion dollar verdict winner trial attorney Stuart Smith alleges that his contacts say BP's Deepwater Horizon oil well is leaking again.

Smith notes today:

Hours after we posted our initial report on Wednesday, the Associated Press in London ran a story that BP admitted to "investigating a new sheen in the Gulf of Mexico," but that it was not near "any existing BP operations."

Only hours after the AP story hit, the Times-Picayune out of New Orleans (my home town) ran an article stating BP's outright denial. From Mark Schleifstein's article (posted Aug. 18 at 1:47 p.m.):

No oil is leaking from the capped Macondo well that blew out last year, destroying the Deepwater Horizon floating platform and killing 11 workers, a BP spokesman said Thursday.

BP also has not hired any vessels to clean up any oil in that area of the Gulf of Mexico, said spokesman Daren Beaudo.

A report in a blog written by trial lawyer Stuart Smith of New Orleans on Wednesday claimed that the well was leaking and that BP had hired 40 boats to clean the mess.

A flurry of allegations and denials ensued. "None of this is true," BP said in a statement. "We inspected our operations and our assets and didn't find anything," said BP spokesman Daren Beaudo.

We knew better than to expect any sort of candid response from BP or the Coast Guard who after all denied oil was leaking for a full week after the DH rig sank last year, so we were very pleased when Bonny Schumaker from the California-based nonprofit On Wings of Care (see link to website below) agreed to do a flyover. She took a four-hour flight out to the Deepwater Horizon site yesterday (Aug. 19) with Gulf Restoration Network (GRN) photographers Jonathan Henderson and Tarik Zawia.

They spotted oil – lots of it. So we now have damning photos of oil in the water at the "exact location" of the Deepwater Horizon. Clearly, BP has some explaining to do.

***


Photos from Jonathan Henderson of the Gulf Restoration Network. The caption for the three photos reads: Oily substance on the surface of the Gulf of Mexico in Mississippi Canyon Block 252. While there were no boats or other structures in the vicinity today, rainbow and brown tinted formations could be seen covering the area where BP's Macondo well is located and the Deepwater Horizon platform exploded and sank in April of 2010. The coordinates are N28 44.20, 88 23.23W.

We will be sampling oil from the scene as soon as possible to establish a chemical fingerprint, which will determine the oil's origin.

Gulf Restoration Network reports:

First, we spotted oil on the surface above the exact location where the Deepwater Horizon and Macondo well are located, in Mississippi Canyon Block 252. Take a look at the captions in the photos for coordinates. Obviously, from the air I cannot confirm that the oil is BP's and from there Macondo well. I can only report that I spotted oil above that location. I reported this to the National Response Center and had a lengthy conversation with a Coast Guard official. Notice that the oil seems to be clustered in round formations. I have no idea why or how this could happen and neither could the USGC official. The formations are clearly rainbow in color and in some cases have also a brownish tint. Take a look:

Here's the slideshow.

And see these videos and photos from Wings of Care.

Giant Oil Production Ship Back In Area

Also suspicious, a giant oil production ship is back at the scene of the oil spill.

Smith reports:

The Helix Producer I, a massive oil production vessel, is back in the area where the Deepwater Horizon rig sank to the sea floor – roughly 170 miles northeast of where BP officially lists its location. Perhaps you recall that the Helix, with the capacity to process 45,000 barrels of oil a day, helped capture oil spewing from the runaway Macondo Well last summer.

***

So why is there an enormous oil production vessel currently parked atop the Macondo field? What's it doing if there's no leak and no oil?

On Wings of Care pilot Bonny Schumaker and two photographers, Jonathan Henderson and Tarik Zawia, from the Gulf Restoration Network (GRN) caught the Helix on film Friday (Aug. 19). From Schumaker's Aug. 19 post-flight report (see link to full report below):

Heading toward the DH site (9111), we came across an interesting vessel known as "Helix", and noted that their submerged equipment must have been about as deep as they could put it, for their cable was run out to the max. If you look at our gps map, the waypoint position for the "Helix" was number 9114 in the screen shot of our gps map below. (The gps file will tell you that the photo was taken from about 600′ above the water at lat/longs 28° 42.160′N, -088° 35.994′W.)

Photo credit to On Wings of Care and Jonathan Henderson at the Gulf Restoration Network (GRN).

According to the online encyclopedia, Wikipedia, the Helix Producer I "is a ship-shaped monohull floating production and offloading vessel. …It has no storage capability." At 530 feet long and 95 feet wide, it's hard to hide – even in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.

As of Aug. 17 (the most recent location date), MarineTraffic.com has the Helix stationary at Lat/Lon: 27.730009/-91.108063; Speed/Course: 0 kn/276°. Those coordinates put it roughly 170 miles southwest of where Bonny Schumaker and her team spotted it Aug. 19 – atop the Macondo field very close to where one of the relief wells was drilled by the vessel Development Driller III.

In the absence of any clue from BP or the Coast Guard, here are a few possible tasks the Helix could be performing:

1. Collecting oil from the sea floor and pumping it into barges at the surface;
2. Working to remotely seal a leak on the sea floor; or
3. Looking for the source of a leak with remotely operated vehicles (ROVs).

Our sources tell us, the Helix is most likely searching for the source of a leak with ROVs. That would explain why the submergence cable was run out nearly to the bare spool (as you can see in the photos). It seems plausible that the vessel is looking for the source of the oil that's surfacing nearby.

Schumaker makes other curious observations in her report that further suggest something's amiss:

We also saw some very strange expanses of greenish linear plumes, each maybe 300 feet wide and separated from the next one by about that same distance, running south to north (roughly). …We also came across an unusual 'string' of buoys, apparently anchored; some sort of sounding measurements? As we reached the DH site, we began to see numerous collections and lines of those strange-looking globules in what was otherwise smooth blue water (waypoints 9114-9117).


Vista Gold Is Overvalued: Hedge a Short Position Using Midas Gold

Posted: 21 Aug 2011 01:34 AM PDT

By James Emerson:

Vista Gold's (VGZ) stock is up over 50% in the past year, closing recently at $3.14. The company reported a positive quarter after contributing assets in the Yellow Pine-Stibnite District of Idaho to Midas Gold (TSE: MAX). The positive results represent a mark to market increase in the assets and not real cash earnings. The company will not be able to convert MAX to cash until the lockup expires.

The company owns 30,402,615 shares of Midas Gold . Stripping out MAX and cash, the market is implying a value of the company's other assets of $1.22 per share.

Price VGZ $3.14
Shares outstanding VGZ 71,132,913
Shares of MAX owned 30,402,615
Value US$ @C$3.45 $ 103,850,516
Value per share $ 1.46
Cash $32,991,000
Cash per share $ 0.46
Cash + MAX $ 1.92
Implied market price of other assets $ 1.22

The company has two main projects: The Mt. Todd gold


Complete Story »

The history of Gold in Canada

Posted: 21 Aug 2011 12:30 AM PDT

NRCan

Great Depression Than and Now

Posted: 20 Aug 2011 11:12 PM PDT

This Is Detroit, Which Forecasts What is Next In Many Poor Urban Areas. "Bulk Buying Would Ease The U.S. Housing Crisis, Morgan Stanley Analysts Say."

New reports forecast the worst five major cities' real estate prices will fall another -10-11%. Editor

"Encouraging investors to buy foreclosed homes in bulk would help shrink the U.S. housing surplus, stabilize property prices and provide affordable rentals, Morgan Stanley (MS) housing analysts said in a report today." Editor: While this sounds good, it would be throwing good money away as the low is not established for housing.

"The collapse of the U.S. residential real estate market triggered the recession in 2007 and stifled an economic recovery, according to the study. Incentives such as tax breaks and eased lending terms are needed to encourage more investors to purchase repossessed homes, repair them and rent the properties at affordable rates to people who can't afford to buy a house, analysts led by Oliver Chang wrote. 'What's important to do is help clear the backlog as quickly as possible with as little detriment to home prices as possible,' Chang, head of housing strategy in Morgan Stanley's research division, said in a telephone interview. 'The goal here isn't to help investors. The goal is to provide quality, affordable housing." Editor: NO…without jobs consumers cannot buy. When the economy recovers (a decade?) and the TRUE JOBLESS RATE IS 5-6%, THEN HOUSING RECOVERS. WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HOUSING DECLINE -65% FROM THE 2005 AVERAGE SELLING HIGHS.

"Housing prices in 20 major U.S. cities have fallen -33% from their July, 2006 peak, according to the S&P/Case- Shiller index. More than one in four homeowners with a mortgage owe more than their property is worth, Zillow Inc. figures show." -John Gittelsohn 8-8-11 Bloomberg.net

In The USA, 45,000,000 Are On Food Stamps Heading For 50,000,000.

Unless the US Government goes ever faster to help with some 1930's WPA type make-work projects, we forecast social upheaval going out of control. You can see it in other parts of the world right now.

"The late-2000s recession, more often called the Great Recession, is a severe on-going global economic problem that began in December, 2007 and took a particularly sharp downward turn in September, 2008. The Great Recession has affected the entire world economy, with higher detriment in some countries than others. It is a global recession characterized by various systemic imbalances and was sparked by the outbreak of the late-2000s financial crisis." Editor: Definitions are the choice of the party-line and are unreality. Phony numbers tell us this is a recession. We call it Greater Depression II with -2% GDP and worsening with 25% USA jobless.

"There are two senses of the word "recession:" a less precise sense, referring broadly to "a period of reduced economic activity", and the scientific sense used most often in economics, which is defined operationally, referring specifically to the contraction phase of a business cycle, with two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. By the economic-science definition of the word "recession", the Great Recession ended in the U.S. in June or July, 2009. However, in the broader, layperson sense of the word, many people use the term to refer to the on-going hardship (in the same way the term "Great Depression" is also popularly used). In the U.S., for example, persistent high unemployment remains, along with low consumer confidence, a continuing decline in home values an increase in foreclosures and personal bankruptcies, an escalating federal debt crisis, inflation, and rising gas and food prices. In fact, a 2011 poll found more than half of all Americans think the U.S. is still in recession or even depression, despite official data that shows a historically modest recovery." -Wikopedia


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Gold, Silver SOAR, Gold Cartel In Shambles / PM Shares On The Move … Finally

Posted: 20 Aug 2011 09:18 PM PDT

Links 8/21/11

Posted: 20 Aug 2011 08:02 PM PDT

Your awful dates, in 140 characters CrapDate (hat tip Richard Smith)

Five bummer problems that make societies collapse Transition Voice (hat tip reader Bruno)

Lost Incan City of Machu Picchu: 100 Years after Discovery by 'Indiana Jones' LoveThesePics (hat tip reader furzy mouse)

Chronic fatigue syndrome researchers face death threats from militants Guardian. I'm not at all a supporter of this sort of harassment of researchers, but I'm not unsympathetic with their beef. When the medical profession can't unravel a problem quickly, they want to make it psychological. I had a buddy who had advanced Lyme disease before doctors would think to test for that, and he saw some of the very best diagnosticians (as in he was in the money is no object league). They kept telling him it was in his head for 18 months until someone figured it out. I also suffer from fatigue (not as bad as CFS and not CFS symptomology) and as soon as I tell doctors I don't have anemia, I've been screened for post viral syndrome, my bloodwork looks normal ex thyroid and I'm already taking meds for that, they immediately want to put me on antidepressants. The two people I know personally who have chronic fatigue syndrome are the antithesis of the sort you would peg with psychological issues: formerly high energy, great jobs, great personal relationships, very positive even with CFS.

Barbara Hannah Grufferman: Will It Ever Be Possible To Live Forever? Huffington Post. Seriously? You want to be stuck on this plane of existence? (in fairness, that isn't the angle the author takes, but still….)

Little evidence links mob violence to social media CNN. Category of "Duh," but I suppose it needs to be said.

The High Price of Looking Like a Woman New York Times. Aieee.

Fighting Erupts in Tripoli Wall Street Journal. Note Stratfor is not so chipper.

So, Boris, rioters make you angry. What about your Bullingdon pal? Independent (hat tip Buzz Potamkin)

Strauss-Kahn Prosecutor Seen Dropping Charges Bloomberg. This is a forecast, not a leak.

Rep. Waters to Frustrated Black Voters: 'Unleash Us' on Obama Fox News

Hershey Guest Worker Scandal Result of Lax Govt. Oversight: Immigration Expert Mike Elk (hat tip reader furzy mouse)

UK 'faces slump' if banks are ring-fenced Telegraph. Classic lobbying trick: get your cronies to make your case for you.

70 People Arrested in Opening Day of Tar Sands Action Tar Sands Action. That included Jane Hamsher and Scarecrow of FireDogLake.

Community Stands Strong to Block an Eviction New York Times (hat tip Joe Costello)

BART's Protest Position Does Not Withstand Legal Scrutiny FireDogLake

Rick Perry accused of hypocrisy as he comes under fire for investment in America's largest pornography distributor Daily Mail (hat tip reader May S)

Where Is Everybody: Does Being Able To Ask That Question Answer It? Karl Smith. You can tell this was written by an economist. He assumes that other (more intelligent) species are as bad at sharing and considering the needs of the collective as humans are. It is more likely that for any species to last long enough to become intelligent enough to conquer space, it has to be better at organizing itself and managing its analogue to id that we are these days.

THE WAR NERD VS. DARRELL ISSA'S GOLDMAN SACHS STAFFER: A BRIEF HISTORY OF HUNGARIAN FASCISM MADE SIMPLE FOR LYING SCUM The Exiled. An argument broke out on the thread where this was posted, with someone declaring this piece to be "vulgar". I'm 1/4 Hungarian and not offended by it.

Antidote du jour:


Japanese rush to sell their Gold jewelry

Posted: 20 Aug 2011 05:00 PM PDT

$20,000 Gold – Mike Maloney – FULL PRESENTATION

Posted: 20 Aug 2011 01:22 PM PDT

"If you don't know the rules you're going to get slaughtered."

~TVR

Bart Chilton: update on the CFTC silver investigation

Posted: 20 Aug 2011 06:56 AM PDT

Guest Email: To leverage or not to leverage?

Posted: 20 Aug 2011 06:24 AM PDT

SGS,

I started following your blog about a year ago, since then your site along with others such as Sprott, KWN, Keiser and Zero hedge have replaced Facebook. I've been slowly building my physical inventory however, I've recently felt a bit more pressured and was hoping you could lend some advice. I currently attend the XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX. Last year the government allowed me to see a whopping $200 dollars a month from my approximate $900 paycheck. Starting last month I now see $300 a month. I know that seems like nothing but through saved money and other investments I've actually been able to pool a bunch of physical. This September I have the ability to take XXXXX "Career Starter loan." A $36,000 loan at 0.75% that won't start accruing interest for 2 years. In two years when I am done with XXXXXXXX, and commissioned I will owe approximately 5 years of service at which time I start repaying the loan.

Now…unlike my classmates who will throw their loans into mutual funds because the bank representative told them it was a good idea, I was planning on buying more physical. I was wondering if you would be able to offer some advice as to whether I should throw the majority of it into physical or if I should do less physical and try to grow some more cash through mines, options, etc. before purchasing more silver. My main concern is that I do not see the loan until mid-September and as we saw silver finished the week pretty strong. I'd like to avoid paying $50 an ounce in 4 weeks. I should be able to barrow around 5,000 next week from a friend before I get the loan. Would you recommend trying to grab some more physical this weekend or next week in order to get some more silver before mid-September? Any thoughts on how I should divvy up the 36,000? I understand you are not blogging to manage other people's money I was just looking for some thoughts.

On a separate note I owe you a huge thank you. Your site has literally taught me more than any of my economic classes thus far. I thoroughly annoyed a teacher of mine last semester when we covered currency and economic policy. He did not appreciate me challenging the US dollar as printer paper nor did he like when I referred to Ben as "the bernank". Keep in mind this instructor told the class oil was $60 a barrel on a day when it reached $114. On the other hand I have been able to pull a few others over to silver. We did a large joint physical buy and it was like Christmas morning when we divvied up our coins and bars. Thank you for the continued education.

Respectfully,

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

_______________________________________________________________________________

Well, I thank you for the kind words. Although I am not going to answer your question directly, as I am not aware of your circumstances, I will tell you this: Borrowing money to invest into anything OTHER than physical usually turns out in disaster. Physical will always be a wealth preserver so its different. That being said, I'm not sure whether you are trying to make money or preserve wealth, or create it. Thus my vague answers.

I always encourage the growth of the physical stack, ultimately its up to you that will determine with what means you will purchase it with. Maples are already in the high 40's, I think you will find out shortly whether to buy higher or lower as next week should be the week that its clear enough to see.

I leave the floor up to some comments under here to help you further make an educated decision in your quest for the million dollar question. Let me know how it went and looking forward to the follow up email a week before Xmas(not sure if I'm allowing to type 'Christmas' anymore so I have to abbreviate it as I may be on the AIPAC/ADL hit list).

Week by the Gold-Silver Numbers for August 19

Posted: 20 Aug 2011 05:02 AM PDT

SOUTH TEXAS -- Just below is this week's closing table, followed by the CFTC disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) recap for the week ending August 19, 2001. 

20100819table 

If the images are too small click on them for a larger version.

Table Comments:  Bulletin: Silver outperforms gold, suggesting that silver might be answering to its monetary personality more than its industrial metal side.  However, much or most of the silver improvement came in Friday's breakout above former resistance in the $41 region in an obvious late week short-covering surge. 

 
Strong positive money flow for gold ETFs this week erases last week's negative flows. Modest positive money flow for silver ETF SLV in these very uncertain times.

Highest ever close for gold, weekly and on the COT date.  HUI struggles at long-time resistance but did not answer the Big Markets, which were clocked due to Europe 'Charlie Foxtrot' underway.  Small miners unable to answer the larger miners, but surprisingly did not sell off harshly. A bullish sign. 

Forex market confused and very dangerously choppy. The buck index actually lower on the week, which surprises many, thinking the euro in big trouble.  ICE commercials dump ALL dollar net short positioning; now slightly net long the greenback index. Hi-lo spreads for gold and silver widening, suggesting a surge of capital inflows, a bullish argument very short term, but volatility hot.  Lack of new material open interest increase despite much higher prices suggests some short covering continued through Thursday (and likely escalated on Friday).  

    
Continued…

 
Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT)

In the DCOT table below a net short position shows as a negative figure in red.  A net long position shows in black.  In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position.  A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting shorter.

All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report. 

20100819COTtable 


As gold was on an up escalator this week, adding $44.54 or 2.6% by the COT data cutoff on Tuesday, it looks like the Producer Merchants, including bullion banks, were net sellers of gold futures, but the major source of selling action belongs to the traders classed as Other Reportables, (including large individuals and firms trading their own book - not for clients), cashing in net long positions that were recently added. Upward or buying pressure for gold futures is attributable to Managed Money, Non Reportables and even Swap Dealers, again. 

In silver we note selling and buying pressure from the usual sources, with the "usual suspects" willing to sell into the silver rally up till Tuesday in a material way, ... but the modest fireworks for silver didn't get underway until after the COT cutoff Tuesday. Silver did not defeat its $41 resistance until Friday, but once it did, it did so convincingly, on what was probably another commercial short covering event (or the beginning of one).

  
Remember that gold advanced as much as $92 higher and silver as much as $3.00 higher than the close on COT Tuesday, so the COT data is likely unrepresentative of the ending positioning for the week.  Having said that, there were only minor changes to the open interest as of Thursday, as shown in the closing table above, so up till then advances in price were accompanied by at least some commercial short covering. 

 
That is all for now, but there is more to come. Have a good weekend everyone.

Brief History of the Gold Standard in the United States

Posted: 20 Aug 2011 04:35 AM PDT

Our tax money hard at work.

Seriously.

17 page pdf, courtesy of the Good Guys at GATA.org.

http://www.gata.org/files/CRSHistory...ldStandard.pdf

COT Report, Short to Long Ratio update

Posted: 20 Aug 2011 02:18 AM PDT

COT gold:

Large specs: added 4566 long, 8083 shorts covered

Commercials: sold 2910, covered 3269 short

Silver COT:

Large specs: added 596 long, 2944 shorts covered

Commercials: sold 1839 longs, ADDED 3501 short

Overall, JPM et al. just got squeezed like lemons as this report is as of Tuesday.

So going into next week this is whats going to happen. JPM et al will be putting up an enormous fight, one that we may not have seen yet. For if they dont, we will see the biggest short squeeze to $50 you have ever seen. It will be epic. Add in the fact that options expiry is next week, you can see how they are already preparing for a massive raid. Gold help them if we see $45 next week, b/c the sour grape squeeze smell will be awesome.

Further more look how obvious the manipulation is and how biased the ratio of longs to shorts are.

In the large spec side in GOLD we see a long to short ratio of (long 264K, short 64K)of 4:1. For every 4 Long contracts the Large spec buys, he is short one too.

In the silver arena their ratio is (32.5K long, 11K short) 3:1 long bias

Now lets look at the polar opposite.

In the Commercial side, such as JPM et al. on the GOLD side they are long 160.5K and short 410K. LOL. This ratio of SHORT to long is 2.5:1. FOR EVERY GOLD CONTRACT LONG (WANTING TO GO UP) the MORGUE adds 2.5 shorts to it (wanting to go down). Hummm biased. I wonder if their clients know they are this bias towards the ONLY asset class that has returned 20% profits over the last 10 years. And they are short 2.5:1 on it. Makes sense.

Now in the silver arena, we see nothing different, and the trend continues. The Commercials are long 34.5K and short 75K. For a ratio of SHORT to long of 2.2:1

Some may say well Gold and silver have risen so that's why they are more biased to the short side. Ya good luck with that argument, go back in Harvey's records a year ago, and you will find that the ratio's are even WORSE.

Keep those donations rolling, the new site is coming alone, every dollar we get is going straight into the new site. There you will have forums, chats, user ID's, less trolls, and far better learning and entertainment experience.

Nervous Investors Go For Gold as Panic Grips Stock Markets

Posted: 20 Aug 2011 12:38 AM PDT

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

As I mentioned in 'The Wrap' yesterday, the gold price was really starting to sail in London...and I must admit that I was expecting some fireworks during the New York trading session, but nothing much happened.

The top in the gold price on Friday came shortly before lunch in London...and it was, as they say, all down hill from there.  There was a smallish rally that began at precisely 8:30 a.m. shortly after Comex trading began in New York, but that rally ran into a determined seller just minutes after the equity markets opened at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time.  That's not the first time I've seen the gold price get sold off at that particular time of day.

Anyway, after that tiny rally was put in its place, the gold price basically traded sideways for the rest of the day.  Gold finished up $28.20 spot on the day...but at its high in London trading, it punched through $1,880 spot for a brief moment.  Volume was immense.

The silver chart looks so much different than the gold price chart, it's hard to believe that this price activity occurred on the same day.

The silver price had a big spike up going into the London silver fix that occurred at noon British Summer Time...but then [thanks to the same not-for-profit seller] it followed an almost identical price pattern to gold right up until 10:50 a.m. in New York.

From that 10:50 a.m. low, silver began to move steadily higher right through the balance of the Comex session...and then on into the New York Access Market that began at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time.  Silver closed nearly on its high of the day...and up $2.26 spot over Thursday's close.  Despite the big gain in price, net volume was almost the same on Friday as it was on Thursday.

The U.S. dollar, which closed down about 25 basis points on Friday, was not a factor in the gold and silver price market yesterday.  You may have noticed that it's been a very long time since anything the dollar has done, has had any impact on the price of gold.  I don't expect that situation to change any time soon.

The good folks over at ino.com have been having problems with their U.S.$ index chart for the last little while...and it's not available today.  But as I said, chart or no chart, it really doesn't matter any more...as the dollar and the precious metals are going their separate ways.

The gold stocks gapped up at the open...and basically held onto most of their gains while the general equity markets headed south from about 10:45 a.m. New York time onwards.  The HUI finished up 2.32% on the day...and about 3.5% on the week.  Here's the chart for the week that was.

Just looking at the silver equity prices in isolation, there's no way of telling from their performance yesterday that silver had one of its biggest one-day price gains in history, as most of the silver equities did only so-so at best.  Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index was only up 2.28% on the day...and was actually down on the week, despite the fact that silver was up about four bucks since last Friday's close.

(Click on image to enlarge)

However, gold and silver equities are being treated just about like every other stock at the moment...and the good have been sold along with the bad during the sell-off in the general equity markets that occurred during this past week.  There were no sacred cows earlier this week.  But this will certainly change as the bull markets in gold and silver continue...and we finally saw signs of that yesterday.

But if you compare the performance of the HUI to the Dow this past week, then we shouldn't complain.  Bull markets make every attempt to shake off the weak hands...and this point in time is one of those moments that comes along to try our patience.  This, too, shall pass.

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 42 gold and one silver contract were posted for delivery on Monday...and the activity isn't worth linking.

The GLD ETF showed another increase yesterday, as 126,584 troy ounces were added...and despite the big rise in the silver price, SLV had no report.  But I'm sure that the fund has to be owed a monster amount of silver that they have to dig up from somewhere.  It's just a matter of how long it takes them to get any or all of it delivered.

And, for the second day in a row, the U.S. Mint did not have a sales report.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday, they reported receiving 6,030 ounces...and shipped out a very chunky 814,916 ounces, most of it out of Brink's, Inc.  The link to the action is here.

I must admit that I was really disappointed in the Commitment of Traders Report in silver.  I had expected a further improvement in the Commercial net short position, but got pretty big deterioration instead...so all these positive-looking open interest numbers that I've been reporting in silver since the cut-off on Tuesday, August 9th have meant nothing.

The Commercial traders, which includes the bullion banks, increased their net short position by 5,340 contracts, or 26.7 million ounces of silver.  They did this by reducing their long position by 1,839 contracts...and added 3,501 short positions.  I wasn't able to contact Ted Butler after the report came out, so I'm not sure what the disaggregated COT report showed, as it gives far more detail than the report I follow.  Maybe Ted sees a silver lining in the numbers that I don't, as the price action during that time period certainly gave no hint of this sort of deterioration.

When his weekend market commentary comes out later today, I'll steal what I can on what happened in silver...and stick it in my Tuesday column.

In gold, it was a different story entirely, as the Commercial net short position rose only a tiny 359 contracts...which is a rounding error.  This jibes with the price action over that time period.

Well, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation updated their website yesterday as I expected they would.  The update showed that they only purchased 100,000 ounces of gold during the month of July.

So far in 2011, they have only reported purchasing 1.6 million ounces of gold for their reserves.  By this time in 2010, they had reported purchasing 3.6 million ounces...so they've really backed off so far this year.  Here's Nick Laird's most excellent graph that shows all.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here are two more charts for your viewing pleasure.  Both are courtesy of Washington state reader S.A. and need no further explanation from me.

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

Reader T.K. in the U.K. send me this information yesterday about his bullion dealer running out of silver coins.

"Just got off the phone with my coin dealer. It was hard to get him on the phone in the first place this morning, since every time I called, all his lines were busy. I wanted to get more silver coins based on "if it is good enough for Eric Sprott, it is good enough for me." The dealer has apparently run out of 1-ounce coins. There is manic buying of these coins in the UK despite the fact that there is 20% VAT on top of the spot price...plus his premium of 10%. I closed my eyes and placed an order for some Maples but will have to wait two weeks for them to be delivered. The dealer says that these are very cheap at these prices because he thinks that by the end of the day it will cost him what he is charging me now just to replace them, that is, if he can get them at all. It could of course be a sales pitch but he has been in this business for 25 years and I have done a huge amount of business with him in the last 18 months. So I doubt very much that he will try to sell me a story. This is the first time I personally have had to experience waiting for my metal to be delivered. I don't know whether we are entering the manic stage as yet, but it sure feels like it."

I'd love to be a fly on the wall over at JPMorgan, as they're still sitting on a 20,000 contract short position in the Comex silver futures market that they can't get out of.
Expect Mass Entry Into Gold By Retail Public: Richard Russell. Silver About to Roar Through $50 All-Time High: John Embry. Waiting for De Gaulle: The New York Sun.

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David Rosenberg's 12 Bullet Points Confirming The Double Dip Is Here

Oddly enough there are still those who believe that a double dip [or, more accurately, a waterfall in the current great depressionary collapse accompanied by violent bear market rallies] is avoidable. Well, here, in 12 bullet points is Rosie doing the closest we have seen him come to gloating...and proving the double dip or whatever you want to call it, is here.

I consider this zerohedge.com piece a must read...and I thank Nitin Agrawal for sending it along.  The link is here.

Moody's Analyst Breaks Silence: Says Ratings Agency Rotten to the Core

A former senior analyst at Moody's has gone public with his story of how one of the country's most important rating agencies is corrupted to the core.

The analyst, William J. Harrington, worked for Moody's for 11 years, from 1999 until his resignation last year.

Harrington has made his story public in the form of a 78-page "comment" to the SEC's proposed rules about rating agency reform, which he submitted to the agency on August 8th. The comment is a scathing indictment of Moody's processes, conflicts of interests, and management, and it will likely make Harrington a star witness at any future litigation or hearings on this topic.

This businessinsider.com story from yesterday was sent to me by reader 'David in California...and it's definitely worth your time.  The link is here.

The New Abnormal: Permanently Engineered Market Volatility

Here's an interesting story that was posted over at the moneymorning.com website yesterday.  The author is Shah Gilani of Capital Waves Strategist.

If the gut-wrenching market volatility of the past few weeks has made you sick to your stomach , I have some bad news for you: violent volatility is the new normal - or more precisely, the new ab-normal.

After massive market moves last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 419.63 points yesterday [Thursday]. And, while that may be bad news for average investors, it's something Wall Street wants.

If you're not a day-trader, high-frequency trader, hedge-fund manager, or institutional desk trader, reading this is going to make you mad as hell. But it's something you have to know, understand, and accept if you're going to be a successful investor going forward.

This guy sounds like he knows what he's talking about...and it's worth the read if you have the time.  I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for sharing it with us...and the link is here.

Shredded Justice: Is the SEC Covering Up Wall Street Crimes?

Earlier this week I ran a Bloomberg piece that gave a brief account of what was in the new Matt Taibbi essay over at Rolling Stone magazine.  The story also linked the Taibbi piece...but it was much too long to post for week-day reading, so here it is now.

A whistle blower claims that over the past two decades, the agency has destroyed records of thousands of investigations, whitewashing the files of some of the nation's worst financial criminals.

Imagine a world in which a man who is repeatedly investigated for a string of serious crimes, but never prosecuted, has his slate wiped clean every time the cops fail to make a case. No more Lifetime channel specials where the murderer is unveiled after police stumble upon past intrigues in some old file – "Hey, chief, didja know this guy had two wives die falling down the stairs?" No more burglary sprees cracked when some sharp cop sees the same name pop up in one too many witness statements. This is a different world, one far friendlier to lawbreakers, where even the suspicion of wrongdoing gets wiped from the record.

That, it now appears, is exactly how the Securities and Exchange Commission has been treating the Wall Street criminals who cratered the global economy a few years back. For the past two decades, according to a whistle-blower at the SEC who recently came forward to Congress, the agency has been systematically destroying records of its preliminary investigations once they are closed.

This is your long read of the day, but it's well worth it...and none of what you read in Matt's essay should come as a shock to you.  As I've said all along...Wall Street and all its associated infrastructure...are basically an organized crime syndicate.  The link is here.

Document Shredding: Why SEC's Defense Won't Fly

Two days after his above essay hit the streets, Matt Taibbi posted this short piece to clarify some of what he said.  It's only a couple of paragraphs long...and if you've read Matt's essay posted above, then you should give this one minute of your time as well.

I thank Roy Stephens for sending me this rollingstone.com blog...and the link is here.

Expect Mass Entry Into Gold By Retail Public: Richard Russell

Posted: 20 Aug 2011 12:38 AM PDT

With gold hitting new all-time highs and silver surging to $43, the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, had this to say in his latest commentary, "Gold -- I've been receiving many calls to the effect, 'Should I sell my gold now?'  My answer is that I don't have the ultimate answer to that question.  My thinking is that gold has been in a decade-long [bull] market.  Most extended bull markets end with a third-phase period of torrid speculation and a mass entrance by the retail public.  So far, we have seen neither."

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