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- 2011-08-09 JP Morgan & Goldman Sachs gold price forecast
- The Foolishness of Opacity
- The Fed Equilibrium: Domestic vs. External Carry
- Gold ETFs Weaken After Margin Hike
- Using Options to Play RIM's Struggles and Apple and Google's Supremacy
- It May Be Time to Short Gold and Buy Gold Equities
- CurrencyShares Swiss Franc ETF Drops on Possible Euro Peg
- An Investor's Journey
- Gold, Silver Returns Strong as Markets Crash!
- Trading Comments, 11 August 2011 (posted 19h15 CET):
- Even Pravda "gets" gold
- Germany’s Best-Selling Tabloid Bilds Front Page Encourages Readers To Buy Gold
- Michael Moore just hit a stupid new low
- U.S. Loses Top-Notch Credit Rating. Is Gold Still AAA?
- Gold’s cyclical 34 month run is about to end
- When will silver catch up with gold’s stunning $100 advance?
- Silver Update
- 10 Reasons Why Gold Is The Gut Reaction And Why Silver Is The Smart Decision
- Big shorts getting bolder in gold and silver, Arensberg reports
- CME Raises Margin Requirements on Gold and Treasuries and Energy and Swiss Francs
- Systemic global crisis - 2011: The ruthless year, at the crossroads of three roads of global chaos
- Die umfassende weltweite Krise – 2011: Das Jahr, das keine Gnade kennt / An der Gabelung von drei Wegen in das weltweite Chaos
- Crise systémique globale - 2011 : L'année impitoyable, à la croisée des trois chemins du chaos mondial
- London Trader - Many Gold Shorts Wiped Out, Lost Everything!
- Thai gold-buying frenzy
- Fed and Q.E. to Cause Financial Collapse and Hyperinflation: John Embry
- CME hikes gold margins, but prices still rising
- French bank shares slump as rumours swirl around Société Générale
- James Turk interviews Eric Sprott at GATA's London conference
- Fed & QE to Cause Financial Collapse & Hyperinflation: John Embry
| 2011-08-09 JP Morgan & Goldman Sachs gold price forecast Posted: 11 Aug 2011 06:46 AM PDT
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| Posted: 11 Aug 2011 05:41 AM PDT By Karl Denninger: Yesterday's dive was apparently due to rumors that SocGen (SCGLF.PK) was about to fail and that several large "off-market" gold transactions were engaged in. There was also a rumor that bank officials were meeting with Sarkozy. The bank has denied all of these rumors and I can't find any sort of confirmation of these alleged off-market-price gold trades. How does a rumor like this whack a bank stock by 20% almost instantly? That's simple: Don't publish true, complete, and market-priced asset valuations. Gee, you think? Opacity means that if people lose confidence, you're dead before you begin. The solution to these problems is not to be opaque in the first place, so that people can see for themselves what you hold, how you priced it, and what your financial condition truly looks like. Of course this means no more "mark to myth" games, no more derivatives traded OTC with no Complete Story » |
| The Fed Equilibrium: Domestic vs. External Carry Posted: 11 Aug 2011 05:28 AM PDT By Evariste Lefeuvre: The dollar weakness will be the result of a voluntary US process, rather than an effect of China's growth model, foreign investor portfolio shifts or even the external account deficit. The general consensus about the Fed's interest rate announcement is that the dollar will feel some downward pressure in the medium-to-long term. The ever-rising price of gold highlights this risk. Conventional wisdom presents several reasons for the long-awaited demise of the US currency: rate differential and carry trade, foreign investor portfolio rebalancing, persistent current account and USD over supply, and a demand switch in China. Here we will discuss and challenge these factors. Low Rates and USD Funded Carry Trade The Fed has made it clear that it intends to maintain rates at a low 0.25% until at least mid-2013. This will lead investors to borrow at low USD rates and lend/invest in high yielding currencies. The incentive for USD-financed Complete Story » |
| Gold ETFs Weaken After Margin Hike Posted: 11 Aug 2011 05:18 AM PDT By Tom Lydon: Gold exchange traded funds were moving lower Thursday after the Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements to trade Comex gold futures contracts. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was down more than 2% in midday trading. Silver prices plunged this spring following similar margin hikes in silver prices. The CME raised margins on gold contracts by 22% after the precious metal recently Complete Story » |
| Using Options to Play RIM's Struggles and Apple and Google's Supremacy Posted: 11 Aug 2011 05:16 AM PDT By Rocco Pendola: Seeking Alpha readers continue to ask me if Research in Motion (RIMM) remains a good short. After consulting several stock market apps on my new BlackBerry Curve, I say short-term neutral, mid- to long-term short. And, while you're at it, you might as well take a look at the two companies that are eating RIM's lunch.
Complete Story » |
| It May Be Time to Short Gold and Buy Gold Equities Posted: 11 Aug 2011 05:14 AM PDT By Devon Shire: It seems like just yesterday gold burst through $1,000 an ounce. It actually wasn't quite yesterday, but it was only a year and a half ago. As you likely know the price now has shot through $1,800 an ounce. An 80% increase in roughly 18 months. Not bad. But that doesn't tell half the story. Ten years ago a person could have bought that same ounce of gold for under $300. A decade later such an investor would have made 6 times their money by holding gold. That is almost a 20% compounded rate of return. The power of compounding never fails to amaze. I got nothing out of this huge gold price increase and I'm not likely interested in buying gold directly today either. Why ? I simply don't like it as an investment. The price of gold is determined too much simply by the emotions of investors and Complete Story » |
| CurrencyShares Swiss Franc ETF Drops on Possible Euro Peg Posted: 11 Aug 2011 05:13 AM PDT By Tom Lydon: CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF) was down more than 4% in early U.S. trading Thursday following reports the Swiss National Bank is considering temporarily pegging the currency to the euro. The central bank was mulling the move to halt the Swiss franc's rise, the New York Times reported. Continued stress in the Eurozone and worries over the U.S. deficit are driving investors into perceived safe havens such as the Swiss franc. The SNB days the currency is massively overvalued. CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust follows the franc against the dollar. "It is telling that the Swiss National Bank has, so far, not come out Complete Story » |
| Posted: 11 Aug 2011 04:58 AM PDT As a follow-up to yesterday's post entitled I Like Gold Stocks , here are some personal and historic comments. I have not liked the stock market since the early 2000s. That does not mean I did not participate as an investor. I did, up until about five years ago, when I became very concerned with obvious [...] |
| Gold, Silver Returns Strong as Markets Crash! Posted: 11 Aug 2011 04:19 AM PDT |
| Trading Comments, 11 August 2011 (posted 19h15 CET): Posted: 11 Aug 2011 04:15 AM PDT My summer explosion thesis is proving accurate, with both gold and silver accelerating on schedule as mentioned in the last alert. There is nothing to do now with gold, except tighten up the |
| Posted: 11 Aug 2011 03:44 AM PDT Gold makes the world go round 11.08.2011  The price of gold continues to grow at a fantastic rate, reaching new heights. Not that long ago its price surpassed all expectations, and today gold is more expensive than platinum. On August 9, COMEX recorded a new high of $1,776.8, and the growth since July 1 amounted to $290, which is the largest monthly increase in the recent years. Experts believe gold is the most reliable asset of the second half of 2011. Today investors on the stock exchanges recorded a growth of gold prices in the range of 3.5%. This figure amounted to $1,778 per ounce, according to The Financial Times. On August 8, traders bought 950 million ounces of gold through trading on the exchange funds, the greatest volume of trading since February 2009. Experts point out that under the conditions of instability in the U.S. gold grows as investors try to invest in safe assets whose range is constantly shrinking, emphasizes FT. According to forecasts of "Goldman Sachs", one can expect an increase in the price of gold to $1,860 per troy ounce in the next 12 months, while "JP Morgan" predicts the maximum price for gold at the end of the year at $2,500. For its part, HSBC suggests that by the end of the year gold could trade up to a level of $1,850. The forecast for 2012 in light of volatile prospects in financial markets has been increased by 8.3% - to $1,625 per ounce, says "Fox Business". Forecasts of this kind raise questions about the reasons for this trend. Alexander Belyakov, an analyst of "Investcafe," said that the change in quotation is due to growing problems in Europe and the USA. Reduction of credit ratings and in particular the latest developments in the U.S. economy have caused a sharp demand for gold as a safe haven from riskier assets.According to him, the entire situation with gold can be called a "bubble", however, high prices for this metal have no impact on the global economic situation. No one will sell gold without a good reason, so the growth may last a very long time. The only thing that can somehow reduce the price of gold in the future is the change of monetary policy of the Fed's that held a meeting on August 9. Belyakov told Bigness.ru that central banks have recently been actively buying gold, increasing their reserves. In recent years the greatest demand was demonstrated in Russia, Mexico and Thailand that over the past year replenished their reserves by 42.99 tons and 9 tones, respectively. The physical assets of the largest mutual fund SPDR Gold Trust rose by 23.5 tons, exceeding 1.3 tons for the first time since 2010. If the fund purchases continue at this rate, a new record may be set soon - over 1.32 tons of supplies. "As you can see, the dynamics of buying gold only grows. In the future we should expect certain decline, given the current sky-high prices, but I do not think that they can be very intimidating to companies and central banks. According to many opinions and forecasts, gold will continue to go up, and hardly anyone knows when it peaks. Let's try to figure out what may affect the depreciation of gold in the medium term. Recently, the main driver of growth for the quotations has been the U.S. The last event the markets listened to with great attention was a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, which is especially important in light of recent events with the collapse of the stock exchanges of the country. According to him, it is likely that the weakness of the economy noted recently may last longer than expected, and that there may be another risk of deflation, implying the need for additional support for the economy. The Fed points to the continued existence of low interest rates over a long period of time. It is also considering lowering the rate in case of launching a new program QE3. If, however, the new program is launched and the "artificial" capital is brought to the markets, it will support the stock markets and cause the fall of the dollar, which in turn will affect the rate of gold. In this situation a prolonged correction is possible, but overall "bullish" trend for metal will continue, and sales will provide excellent opportunities for future purchases," said the expert. Thus, we can assume that from the technical side gold is overbought, and there is a need for correction. This rapid growth cannot last too long. Prerequisites for this correction already exist: a decline from the current maximum of $1,775 by over $50. At the moment, the basic level of support is the uptrend from July 6, the next support level is a mark of $1,680, and resistance is located at $1,750 and $1,775 marks, according to the analysis of Investcafe.Belyakov said that it would make sense to "partially close the open shop and wait for the reduction in the area of $1,680. With these levels, consider buying short-stop orders with the immediate goal of $1,775. In terms of the futures on FORTS the recommendations are similar, based on the current levels of contract." "Thus, both the fundamental and technical analysis point to the continued growth of gold, but we should monitor closely the situation in the global economy as well as possible changes for the better that may put pressure on gold over the medium term," sums up the expert. Irina Loseva Pravda.Ru http://english.pravda.ru/business/fi...118716-gold-0/ |
| Germany’s Best-Selling Tabloid Bilds Front Page Encourages Readers To Buy Gold Posted: 11 Aug 2011 01:36 AM PDT |
| Michael Moore just hit a stupid new low Posted: 11 Aug 2011 01:10 AM PDT From The Washington Times: Liberal firebrand Michael Moore called on President Obama to respond to the U.S. credit downgrade by arresting the leaders of the credit ratings agencies. On his Twitter feed Monday, the Oscar-winning film director also blamed the 2008 economic collapse on Standard & Poor’s – apparently because it and other credit ratings agencies... Read full article... More on Michael Moore: Michael Moore says he's filled with joy about GM collapse... Top investor: Michael Moore's Capitalism movie is ridiculous Why commie Michael Moore is posting bail for Wikileaks founder Julian Assange |
| U.S. Loses Top-Notch Credit Rating. Is Gold Still AAA? Posted: 11 Aug 2011 01:00 AM PDT SunshineProfits |
| Gold’s cyclical 34 month run is about to end Posted: 11 Aug 2011 12:35 AM PDT David Banister- www.MarketTrendForecast.com August 10th 2011 Gold hit $1805 tonight in trading, a Fibonacci Fractal figure I gave out a few weeks ago as a possible top. We are close to a near term high in Gold and Investors should be trimming back positions on this run. Back as recently as $1600 an ounce I forecasted a run to $1805 for Gold using fractal and wave analysis and behavioral patterns, now that we hit that figure it's time to update the cycle and where we are. Here is the Chart I did at 1599 gold on July 22nd: I have been a Gold Bull since November 2001, having conducted seminars for public employees on investing back then and advising gold mutual funds and gold stocks very early. I have talked in the past about a 13 fibonacci year Gold Bull cycle that will end around 2014, so there are still three years left in my opinion. However, gold does have peaks and valleys and has moved in very clear Wave and Fibonacci fractal patterns for years. Given the history of how I have forecasted Gold, I am going to share my short term and moderately long term views on where we are in the up cycle which I expect to last 13 fibonacci years to 2014. Right now it is my opinion that we are completing a MAJOR WAVE 3 up in Gold from the 2001 lows from $300 an ounce. We have had a 34 fibonacci month rally since the October 2008 lows of $681 per ounce. Every Taxi driver, CNBC guest or analyst, and 200 Radio and TV commercials a day are blaring to buy Gold. This is how intermediate tops form. The rough wave count is below: It is my opinion that at the top of a Major wave 3 in Gold, that everyone should be univerally bullish, that gold radio and TV commercials would be all over the place, and that everyone on CNBC would be talking about and recommending Gold. Sound familiar? So the likely conclusion to this massive parabolic blow off top of Wave 3 is nigh. Most recently I upped my estimates to as high as $1900 per ounce with $1805 already here as of tonight, which was one of my figures by the way many weeks ago. Gold should under normal circumstances top between 1862 and 1900 per ounce fairly soon should the 1805 level not hold as a high. At that level we will be dramatically overbought. We are already running 15.7% above the 20 week moving average line which historically is about as high as Gold will get before correcting hard and consolidating. A final lift to the 1862-1900 ranges should lead to a fairly good sized correction to the downside designed to kick all the late comer Taxi Cab driving buyers off the bull's back. With that said, at $1805 I would be trimming my position and or hedging my long positions aggressively. Watch for a Maximum Gold top at 1862 -1900 per ounce and keep in mind 1805 is being hit tonight and that is a qualifying fibonacci fractal top as well. Investors should be trimming back positions and looking to re-deploy back into Gold at better prices. We could get a huge blow off top over 1900, but it would be very very rare if it happens. If you'd like to stay ahead of the peaks and valleys in Gold, Silver, and the SP 500 (Recently called a tradable bottom at 1101), then check out www.MarketTrendForecast.com for a 33% 48 hour coupon or sign up for the occasional but infrequent free updates. |
| When will silver catch up with gold’s stunning $100 advance? Posted: 11 Aug 2011 12:26 AM PDT The gold price shows every sign of going exponential as predicted by Jim Sinclair (click here). We have surged from $1,700 past $1,800 in a matter of days, so much for the normal low season in the summer for precious metals. |
| Posted: 10 Aug 2011 11:47 PM PDT  |
| 10 Reasons Why Gold Is The Gut Reaction And Why Silver Is The Smart Decision Posted: 10 Aug 2011 11:21 PM PDT |
| Big shorts getting bolder in gold and silver, Arensberg reports Posted: 10 Aug 2011 11:11 PM PDT |
| CME Raises Margin Requirements on Gold and Treasuries and Energy and Swiss Francs Posted: 10 Aug 2011 11:03 PM PDT |
| Systemic global crisis - 2011: The ruthless year, at the crossroads of three roads of global chaos Posted: 10 Aug 2011 11:00 PM PDT - Public announcement GEAB N°51 (January 16, 2011) -  This GEAB issue marks the fifth anniversary of the publication of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin. In January 2006, on the occasion of the first issue, the LEAP/E2020 team indicated that a period of four to seven years was opening up which would be characterized by the "Fall of the Dollar Wall", an event similar to the fall of the Berlin Wall which resulted, in the following years, in the collapse of the communist bloc then that of the USSR. Today, in this GEAB issue, which presents our thirty-two anticipations for 2011, we believe that the coming year will be a pivotal year in the roll out of this process between 2010 and 2013. It will be, in any case, a ruthless year because it will mark the entry into the terminal phase of the world before the crisis (1). Since September 2008, when the evidence of the global and systemic nature of the crisis became clear to all, the United States, and behind it the Western countries, were content with palliative measures that have merely hidden the undermining effects of the crisis on the foundations of the present-day international system. 2011 will, according to our team, mark the crucial moment when, on the one hand, these palliative measures see their anesthetic effect fade away whilst, in contrast, the consequences of systemic dislocation in recent years will dramatically surge to the forefront (2). In summary, 2011 will be marked by a series of violent shocks that will explode the faulty safety devices put in place since 2008 (3) and will carry off, one by one, the "pillars" on which the "Dollar Wall" has rested for decades. Only the countries, communities, organizations and individuals which, over the last three years, have actually undertaken to learn the lessons from the current crisis to distance themselves as quickly as possible from the pre-crisis patterns, values and behavior will get through this year unscathed; the others will be carried away in the procession of monetary, financial, economic, social and political difficulties that 2011 holds. Thus, as we believe that 2011 will, globally, be the most chaotic year since 2006, the date of the beginning of our work on the crisis, in this GEAB issue our team has focused on 32 anticipations for 2011, which also include a number of recommendations to deal with future shocks. Thus, this GEAB issue offers a kind of map forecasting financial, monetary, political, economic and social shocks for the next twelve months. If our team believes that 2011 will be the worst year since 2006, the beginning of our anticipation work on the systemic crisis, it's because it's at the crossroads of three paths to global chaos. Absent fundamental treatment of the causes of the crisis, since 2008 the world has only gone back to take a better jump forward. A bloodless international system The first path that the crisis can take to cause world chaos is simply a violent and unpredictable shock. The dilapidated state of the international system is now so advanced that its cohesion is at the mercy of any large-scale disaster (4). Just look at the inability of the international community to effectively help Haiti over the past year (5), the United States to rebuild New Orleans for six years, the United Nations to resolve the problems in Darfur, Côte d'Ivoire for a decade, the United States to progress peace in the Middle East, NATO to beat the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Security Council to control the Korean and Iranian issues, the West to stabilize Lebanon, the G20 to end the global crisis be it financial, food, economic, social, monetary, ... to see that over the whole range of climatic and humanitarian disasters, like economic and social crises, the international system is now powerless. In fact, since the mid-2000s at least, all the major global players, at their head of course the United States and its cortege of Western countries, do no more than give out information, or gesticulate. In reality, all bets are off: The crisis ball rolls and everyone holds their breath so it doesn't fall on their square. But gradually the increasing risks and issues of the crisis have changed the casino's roulette wheel into Russian roulette. For LEAP/E2020, the whole world has begun to play Russian roulette (6), or rather its 2011 version, "American Roulette" with five bullets in the barrel.  Soaring commodity prices (food, energy (7),...) should remind us of 2008 (8). It was indeed in the six months preceding Lehman Brothers and Wall Street's collapse that the previous episode of sharp increases in commodity prices was set. And the actual causes are the same as before: a flight from financial and monetary assets in favour of "concrete" investments. Last time the big players fled the mortgage market and everything that depended on it, as well as the U.S. Dollar; today they are fleeing all financial stocks, Treasury bonds (9) and other public debts. Therefore, we have to wait for a time between Spring and Autumn 2011 for the explosion of the quadruple bubble of Treasury bonds, public debt (10), bank balance sheets (11) and real estate (American, Chinese, British, Spanish,... and commercial (12)), all taking place against a backdrop of a heightened currency war (13). The inflation induced by US, British and Japanese Quantitative Easing and similar stimulus measures of the Europeans and Chinese will be one of the destabilizing factors in 2011 (14). We will come back to this in more detail in this issue. But what is now clear with respect to what is happening in Tunisia (15), is that this global context, especially the rise in food and energy prices, now leads on to radical social and political shocks (16). The other reality that the Tunisian case reveals is the impotence of the French, Italian or American "godfathers" to prevent the collapse of a "friendly regime" (17). Impotence of the major global geopolitical players And this impotence of the major global geopolitical players is the other path that the crisis can use to produce world chaos in 2011. In effect, one can place the major G20 powers in two groups whose only point in common is that they are unable to influence events decisively. On one side we haves a moribund West with, on the one hand, the United States, for whom 2011 will show that its leadership is no more than fiction (see this issue) and which is trying to freeze the entire international system in its configuration of the early 2000s (18), and on the other hand we have Euroland, "sovereign" in the pipeline, which is currently mainly focused on adapting to its new environment (19) and new status as an emerging geopolitical entity (20), and which, therefore, has neither the energy nor the vision necessary to influence world events (21). And on the other side are the BRIC countries (with China and Russia in particular) who are, at the moment, proving to be incapable of taking control of all or part of the international system and whose only action is therefore limited to quietly undermine what remains of the foundations of the pre-crisis order (22). Ultimately, impotence is widespread (23) at the international community level, increasing not only the risk of major shocks, but also the significance of the consequences of these shocks. The world of 2008 was taken by surprise by the violent impact of the crisis, but paradoxically the international system was better equipped to respond being organized around an undisputed leader (24). In 2011, this is no longer the case: not only is there no undisputed leader, but the system is bloodless as we have seen above. And the situation is aggravated further by the fact that the societies of many countries in the world are on the verge of socio-economic break-up.  Societies on the edge of socio-economic break-up This is particularly the case in the United States and Europe where three years of crisis are beginning to weigh very heavily on the socio-economic and therefore political balance. US households, now insolvent in their tens of millions, oscillate between sustained poverty (25) and rage against the system. European citizens, trapped between unemployment and the dismantling of the welfare state (26), are starting to refuse to pay the bills for financial and budget crises and are beginning to look for culprits (banks, the Euro, government political parties…). But amongst the emerging powers too, the violent transition which constitutes the crisis is leading societies towards situations of break-up: in China, the need to control expanding financial bubbles is hampered by the desire to improve the lot of whole sectors of society such as the need for employment for tens of millions of casual workers; in Russia, the weakness of the social security system fits badly with the enrichment of the elite, just as in Algeria shaken by riots. In Turkey, Brazil and India, everywhere the rapid change these countries are seeing is triggering riots, protests and terrorist attacks. For reasons that are sometimes contradictory, growth for some, penury for others, across the globe our diverse societies tackle 2011 in a context of strong tensions and socio-economic break-up, which have the making of political time bombs. It's its position at the crossroads of three paths which thus makes 2011 a ruthless year. And ruthless it will be for the States (and local authorities) which have chosen not to draw hard conclusions from the three years of crisis which have gone before and / or who have contented themselves with cosmetic changes not altering their fundamental imbalances at all. It will also be so for businesses (and States (27)) who believed that the improvement in 2010 was a sign of a return to "normal" of the global economy. And finally it will be so for investors who have not understood that yesterday's investments (securities, currencies,...) couldn't be those of tomorrow (in any case for several years). History is usually a "good girl". She often gives a warning shot before sweeping away the past. This time, it gave the warning shot in 2008. We estimate that in 2011, it will do the sweeping. Only players who have undertaken, even painstakingly, even partially, to adapt to the new conditions generated by the crisis will be able to hang on; for the others, chaos is at the end of the road. ---------- Notes: (1) Or of the world that we have known since 1945 to repeat our 2006 description. (2) The recent decision by the US Department of Labor to extend the inclusion of the measure of long-term unemployment in the US employment statistics to five years instead of the maximum of two years until now, is a good indicator of the entry into a new stage of the crisis, a step that has seen the disappearance of the "practices" of the world before. As a matter of fact, the US government cites "the unprecedented rise" of long-term unemployment to justify this decision. Source: The Hill, 12/28/2010 (3) These measures (monetary, financial, economic, budgetary, strategic) are now closely linked. That's why they will be carried away in a series of successive shocks. (4) Source: The Independent, 01/13/2011 (5) It's even worse because it was international aid that brought cholera to the island, causing thousands of deaths. (6) Moreover Timothy Geithner, US Treasury Secretary, little known for his overactive imagination, has just indicated that "the US government could once again have to do exceptional things", referring to the bank bailout in 2008. Source: MarketWatch, 01/13/2011 (7) Moreover, India and Iran are in the course of establishing a system of exchange "gold for oil" to try and avoid supply disruptions. Source: Times of India, 01/08/2011 (8) In January 2011 the FAO food price index (at 215) has just exceeded its previous record SET in May 2008 (at 214). (9) Wall Street banks are currently unloading their US Treasury bonds as fast as possible (unseen since 2004). Their official explanation is "the remarkable improvement in the US economy which no longer requires us to seek refuge in Treasury Bonds". Of course, you are free to believe it, like Bloomberg 's journalist on 01/10/2011. (10) Thus Euroland is already taking big steps forward along the path described in the GEAB N°50 with a discount in the case of refinancing the debts of a member state, whilst Japanese and US debt are now about to enter the storm. Sources: Bloomberg, 01/07/2011; Telegraph, 01/05/2011 (11) We believe that, in general, global banks' balance sheets contain at least 50% ghost assets which in the coming year will require to be discounted by between 20% to 40% due to the return of the global recession combined with austerity, the rise in defaults on household, business, community and state loans, currency wars and a pickup in the fall of real estate prices. The American, European, Chinese, Japanese and others "stress-tests" can still continue to try and reassure markets with "Care Bears" scenarios except that this year it's "Alien against Predator " which is on the banks' agenda. Source: Forbes, 01/12/2011 (12) Each of these real estate markets will fall sharply again in 2011 in the case of those which have already started falling in recent years, or in the case of China, which will begin its sharp deflation amid economic slowdown and monetary tightening. (13) The Japanese economy is, moreover, one of the first victims of this currency war, with 76% of the CEOs of 110 major Japanese companies surveyed by Kyodo News now reported being pessimistic about Japanese growth in 2011 following the rise in the yen. Source: JapanTimes, 01/04/2011 (14) Here are several instructive examples put together by the excellent John Rubino. Source: DollarCollapse, 01/08/2011 (15) By way of reminder, in the GEAB N°48 we had classified Tunisia in the category of countries "with significant risks" in 2011. (16) No doubt, moreover, that the Tunisian example is generating a round of reassessment amongst the rating agencies and the "experts in geopolitics", who, as usual, didn't see anything coming. The Tunisian case also illustrates the fact that it's now the satellite countries of the West in general and the US in particular, who are on the way to shocks in 2011 and in the years to come. And it confirms what we regularly repeat: a crisis accelerates all the historical processes. The Ben Ali regime, twenty-three years old, collapsed in a few weeks. When political obsolescence is involved everything changes quickly. Now it's all the pro-Western Arab regimes which are obsolete in the light of events in Tunisia. (17) No doubt this « Western godfather » paralysis will be carefully analyzed in Rabat, Cairo, Jeddah and Amman, for example. (18) A configuration that was all the more favorable because it was without a counterweight to their influence. (19) We will return in more detail in this GEAB issue, but seen from China we are not mistaken. Source: Xinhua, 01/02/2011 (20) Little by little Europeans are discovering that they are dependent on centres of power other than Washington. Beijing, Moscow, Brazilia, New Dehli,… Source: La Tribune, 01/05/2011; Libération, 12/24/2010; El Pais, 01/05/2011 (21) All Japan's energy is focused on its desperate attempt to resist the attraction of China. As for other Western countries, they are not able to significantly influence global trends. (22) The US Dollar's place in the global system is a part of these last foundations that the BRIC countries are actively eroding day after day. (23) As regards deficit, the US case is textbook. Beyond the speeches, everything continues as before the crisis with a deficit swelling exponentially. However, even the IMF is now ringing the alarm. Source: Reuters, 01/08/2011 (24) Moreover, even Market Watch on 01/12/2011, echoing the Davos Forum, is concerned over the lack of international coordination, which is in itself a major risk to the global economy. (25) Millions of Americans are discovering food banks for the first time in their lives, whilst in California, as in many other states, the education system is disintegrating fast. In Illinois, studies on the state deficit are now comparing it to the Titanic. 2010 broke the record for real estate foreclosures. Sources: Alternet, 12/27/2010; CNN, 01/08/2011; IGPA-Illinois, 01/2011; LADailyNews, 01/13/2011 (26) Ireland, which is facing, purely and simply, a reconstruction of its economy, is a good example of situations to come. But even Germany, with remarkable current economic results however can't escape this development as shown by the funding crisis for cultural activities. Whilst in the United Kingdom, millions of retirees are seeing their incomes cut for the third year running. Sources : Irish Times, 12/31/2010; Deutsche Welle, 01/03/2011; Telegraph, 01/13/2011 (27) In this regard, US leaders confirm that they are rushing straight into the wall of public debt, failing to anticipate the problems. Indeed, the recent statement by Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, that the Fed will not help the States (30% fall in 2009 tax revenues according to the Washington Post on 01/05/2011) and the cities collapsing under their debts, just as Congress decides to stop issuing "Build America Bonds" which enabled States to avoid bankruptcy these last few years, shows a Washington blindness only equal to that which Washington demonstrated in 2007/2008 in the face of the mounting consequences of the "subprime" crisis. Sources: Bloomberg, 01/07/2011; WashingtonBlog, 01/13/2011 |
| Posted: 10 Aug 2011 10:59 PM PDT - Pressemitteilung des GEAB vom 17. Januar 2011 -  Mit dieser 51. Ausgabe des GEAB feiert der Global Anticipation Bulletin seinen fünften Geburtstag. Im Januar 2006 schrieb LEAP in der ersten Ausgabe des GEAB, dass wir am Beginn einer Epoche von vier bis sieben Jahren stünden, die vom Sturz der Dollarmauer geprägt wäre. Als geschichtliches Ereignis wäre dies so schwerwiegend wie der Fall der Berliner Mauer, der das Ende des Ostblocks und der Sowjetunion einleitete. Heute, in dieser 51. Ausgabe des GEAB, die unsere 32 Vorhersagen für das Jahr 2011 enthält, werden wir darlegen, warum wir glauben, dass 2011 das Jahr sein wird, in dem die Weichen für den Fall der Dollarmauer gestellt werden. Dieser Prozess dürfte sich über einen Zeitraum von drei Jahren hinziehen, also bis 2013 gehen. Dieses Jahr wird ein schlimmes Jahr werden, weil nun die Welt von Gestern untergeht (1). Seit September 2008 ist allen klar, dass diese Krise in der Tat umfassend und global ist. Dennoch haben sich die USA und in ihrem Windschatten ihre westlichen Verbündeten damit zufrieden gegeben, an den Symptomen herumzudoktern und die Risse des Systems zu übertünchen. So blieb verborgen, wie weitgehend die Ursachen der Krise die Grundlagen des gegenwärtigen internationalen Systems zerstört haben. 2011 wird nach unserer Auffassung das Jahr sein, in dem die staatlichen Maßnahmen, die nur die oberflächlichen Folgen der Krise beheben konnten, ihre Wirkung verlieren. Dann wird die Krise wieder ihre volle Kraft entfalten können, und offensichtlich werden, wie weit der Zerfall der Welt – und öffentlichen Ordnung in den letzten Jahren fortschreiten konnte (2). Daher gehen wir gehen davon aus, dass 2011 geprägt sein wird von einer Reihe brutaler Schocks, die die unzureichenden Schutzmechanismen gegen die Krise, die seit 2008 eingerichtet wurden (3), zerschlagen werden. Diese Schocks werden nach und nach die Fundamente wegbrechen, auf denen seit Jahren die Dollarmauer ruht. Nur die Länder, Gebietskörperschaften, Organisationen und Privatpersonen, die in den letzten drei Jahren die Schlussfolgerungen aus der Krise gezogen haben und die Konzeptionen, Ziele, Werte und Gewohnheiten der Welt von Gestern abgelegt haben, werden dieses Jahr unbeschadet überstehen. Die anderen werden in einer Abfolge von finanziellen, währungspolitischen, wirtschaftlichen, politischen und sozialen Problemen, mit denen das Jahr 2011 uns konfrontieren wird, beträchtlichen Schaden erleiden. Da wir also davon ausgehen, dass 2011 insgesamt das chaotischste Jahr seit 2006, dem Jahr, in dem wir unsere Arbeiten über die Krise begannen, sein wird, haben wir uns für diese 51. Ausgabe auf unsere 32 Vorhersagen für das Jahr 2011 konzentriert, in die diesmal auch unsere Empfehlungen, wie man sich am besten gegen die Folgen der uns bevorstehenden Schocks wappnen kann, eingearbeitet sind. Diese Ausgabe des GEAB bietet damit sozusagen eine Wegbeschreibung durch die finanziellen, währungspolitischen, politischen wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Schocks der nächsten zwölf Monate. Unsere Auffassung von 2011 als das schrecklichste Jahr seit des Beginns unserer Arbeiten zur Antizipation der umfassenden Krise gründet sich auf die Annahme, dass in diesem Jahr die Welt vor einer Weggabelung steht, von der drei Wege abgehen, die aber alle in das weltweite Chaos führen. Statt die Ursachen der Krise zu beheben, hat die internationale Gemeinschaft seit 2008 mit Bankenrettung und Konjunkturplänen nichts anderes gemacht, als Anlauf zu nehmen, um nun mit vollem Schwung in das Chaos springen zu können. Ein machtloses internationales System Den ersten Weg, den die Krise nehmen kann, um die Welt in Chaos zu stürzen, ist das Auftreten eines brutalen, unvorhersehbaren Schocks. Das internationale System ist inzwischen in einem so jämmerlichen Zustand, dass es in jeder Art von Katastrophe größeren Ausmaßes zusammenbrechen kann (4). Wer dies für eine übertriebene Aussage hält, sollte einfach den Blick nach Haiti wenden, wo die internationale Gemeinschaft seit nunmehr einem Jahr sich unfähig zeigt, dem Land effizient beim Wiederaufbau zu helfen (5); oder in die USA, wo die USA in sechs Jahren seit dem Wirbelsturm Katrina unfähig waren, die Stadt wieder aufzubauen. Dafur, Elfenbeinküste, Israel und Palästina – nirgendwo kann die internationale Gemeinschaft dauerhafte Lösungen durchsetzen. Die Nato kann die Taliban nicht besiegen, der VN-Sicherheitsrat die Korea- und Irankrise nicht lösen. Der Westen vermag nicht, den Libanon zu stabilisieren, der G20 nicht, die weltweite Krise zu lösen, in der sich zu den finanziellen und wirtschaftlichen Problemen auch noch die unzureichende Ernährungssicherheit gesellt hat. Wo immer auch die Ursachen einer Katastrophe liegen, ob im Klima oder bei den Menschen, das internationale System ist ohnmächtig, die Probleme zu lösen oder wenigstens die Folgen zu mindern. Seit zumindest der Mitte des ersten Jahrzehnts dieses Jahrhunderts bieten die Staaten, die sich als wichtige Akteure auf der Weltbühne fühlen, also in erster Linie die USA mit ihren westlichen Verbündeten, statt wirksamer Politik, die die Lebenswirklichkeit verändert, nur Kommunikation und Lippenbekenntnisse. Die Staaten haben die Hoffnung aufgegeben, ihr Schicksal noch bestimmen zu können. Die Regierungen hoffen nur noch, dass der nächste Kelch der Krise an ihnen vorübergehen werde, dass die nächste Katastrophe ein anderes Land ereile. Aber inzwischen hat die Krise die Zahl der möglichen Katastrophen so erhöht, dass die Staaten genauso gut auch russisches Roulette spielen könnten. Nach unserer Auffassung ist die ganze Welt auf dem Weg, die neue Version russischen Roulettes (6), die Version 2011, zu spielen, nämlich amerikanisches Roulette: Gleiche Regeln, nur statt einer Kugel fünf in der Trommel.  Der Preisanstieg für Rohstoffe (Lebensmittel, Energie usw. (7)) weckt unweigerlich Erinnerungen an 2008 (8). Auch damals, im Vorfeld des Zusammenbruchs von Lehman Brothers und der Wall street, schossen die Rohstoffpreise durch die Decke. Und die Gründe für den Preisanstieg heute sind dieselben wie 2008: Die Flucht aus reinen Finanzwerten und Devisen in „konkrete" Anlagen. Gestern flohen die großen Investoren und Fonds aus den Hypothekenkrediten und überhaupt allen Anlagen, die vom Dollar abhingen. Heute flüchten sie wiederum aus den Finanzwerten, aber auch aus Staatsanleihen und anderen öffentlichen Schulden. Zwischen Frühjahr und Herbst 2011 ist mit der Explosion von vier Blasen zu rechnen: Der Blase der Staatsanleihen (9), der öffentlichen Schulden (10), der Bankbilanzen (11) und der Immobilienmärkte in den USA, China, Großbritannien, Spanien wie überhaupt der Gewerbeimmobilienmarkt (12). Dies alles wird sich vor dem Hintergrund massiver Währungskriege abspielen (13). Angesichts des amerikanischen, britischen und japanischen Quantitative Easing und der Konjunkturprogramme, die diese Länder sowie auch China und Europa aufgelegt haben, kann Inflation nicht ausbleiben. Dies wird einer der Faktoren sein, die die Welt im Jahr 2011 erschüttern werden (14). Wir werden in dieser Ausgabe des GEAB noch näher darauf eingehen. Aber wie man an den Ereignissen in Tunesien (15) sehen kann, führen globale Gegebenheiten wie insbes. die Lebensmittel –und Energiepreise national zu massiven sozialen und politischen Schocks (16). Und sehr bezeichnend ist auch, dass die großen Schutzmächte des tunesischen Regimes, nämlich Frankreich, Italien und die USA unfähig waren, den Zusammenbruch eines „befreundeten" Regimes zu verhindern (17). Die Machtlosigkeit der großen geopolitischen Akteure Der Machtverfall der bisher so mächtigen geopolitischen Akteure ist der zweite Weg, den die Krise einschlagen kann, um 2011 die Welt ins Chaos zu stürzen. Man kann ja die mächtigsten Mitglieder der G20 in zwei Gruppen einteilen, deren einziger gemeinsamer Punkt darin besteht, dass beide nicht in der Lage sind, die Ereignisse in entscheidender Weise zu beeinflussen. Auf der einen Seite gibt es den „Westen" der Nachkriegszeit, der in dieser Form nicht mehr lange bestehen wird. Für die USA wird das Jahr 2011 den Beweis erbringen, dass ihre Führungsrolle in der Welt Vergangenheit ist (vgl. weiter unten in dieser Ausgabe). Dennoch versuchen sie verzweifelt, das internationale System in seiner Form vom Beginn des neuen Jahrhunderts zu erhalten. Das ist auch verständlich, waren sie doch damals die einzige Supermacht in einer unipolaren Welt. Und Euroland ist dabei, in die Rolle eines Quasi-Staates (18) hineinzuwachsen. Es ist mit diesem Umbruch und seinem Hineinwachsen in die Rolle eines „global players" (19) ausreichend beschäftigt, so dass ihm keine Energie übrig bleibt oder es auch nur eine Vision entwerfen könnte, um auf die weltweiten Ereignisse Einfluss zu nehmen (20). Auf der anderen Seite findet man die BRIC mit den beiden treibenden Kräften China und Russland, die sich allerdings noch als unfähig erweisen, die Führung zumindest eines Teils des internationalen Systems zu übernehmen. Sie beschränken ihre Aktivität zurzeit darauf, die noch verbleibenden Reste der Fundamente der Welt von Gestern diskret zu untergraben (21). Damit ist die Ohnmacht im internationalen System allgegenwärtig (22). Das erhöht natürlich das Risiko, dass wesentliche Schocks sich ereignen und dass die Folgen dieser Schocks schlimmer sind als es sonst notwendig wäre, weil nicht gemeinsam gegengesteuert werden kann. Die Welt von 2008 wurde von dem gewaltigen Schock der Finanzkrise überrascht. Aber damals konnte das System noch besser reagieren. Denn es besaß noch eine unangefochtene Führungsnation (23). 2011 ist dies nicht mehr der Fall. Es gibt keine unangefochtene Führungsnation mehr, und das System ist machtlos geworden, wie wir soeben ausgeführt haben. Die Lage wird noch weiter dadurch verschärft, dass in vielen Staaten der Ausbruch sozialer Unruhen und schwerer wirtschaftlicher Krisen drohen.  Gesellschaften am Rand eines sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Zusammenbruchs Dies ist insbes. der Fall in den USA und in Europa, wo die Folgen von drei Jahren Krise sich in wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Belangen massiv bemerkbar machen. Das führt natürlich auch zu politischen Folgen. Die amerikanischen Privathaushalte, von denen Abermillionen heute insolvent sind, schwanken zwischen geduldig ertragener Armut (24) und Wut gegen das System. Die Europäer, die um sich herum wahrnehmen, wie die Arbeitslosigkeit zunimmt, während gleichzeitig der Sozialstaat zerstört wird (25), beginnen allmählich, sich dagegen zu wehren, dass ihnen die Kosten für die Krise auferlegt werden, und machen sich auf die Suche nach den Schuldigen (Banken, Euro, Regierungsparteien). Aber auch in den Schwellenländern häuft die Krise gesellschaftlichen Sprengstoff an. In China stoßen Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der Finanzblasen auf den Widerstand derjenigen, die endlich einen gewissen Wohlstand erreichen oder den bestehenden noch weiter mehren möchten. Auch muss die chinesische Wirtschaft Arbeit für Abermillionen Wanderarbeiter zur Verfügung stellen, wenn es nicht zu sozialen Unruhen kommen soll. In Russland ist das niedrige Sozialhilfeniveau mit dem sagenhaften Reichtum der Oberklasse und Oligarchen nur schwer zu vereinbaren. Genau das Selbe gilt für Algerien, wo Unruhen bereits ausgebrochen sind. Ob in Brasilien, Türkei oder Indien, überall führen die schnellen Umbrüche zu Aufständen, Unruhen, Attentaten. Die Vermögensschere ist inzwischen fast überall auf der Welt so weit geöffnet, dass soziale Unruhen drohen. All diese Staaten beginnen 2011 das Jahr mit einem gesteigerten Risiko von schweren Spannungen und der Gefahr von sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Brüchen. Viele Staaten sind zu wahren politischen Pulverfässer geworden. Dass sich 2011 drei Wege ins Chaos gabeln, macht aus den kommenden Monaten das Jahr, das keine Gnade kennt. Keine Gnade wird es für die Staaten und Städte kennen, die nicht die Schlussfolgerungen aus den drei Jahren Krise ziehen wollten und glaubten, nach einigen kosmetischen Veränderungen das Leben und die Wirtschaft wie gehabt fortführen zu können, ohne die Ursachen der Krise zu bekämpfen. Es wird auch keine Gnade für die Unternehmen und Staaten (26) kennen, die glaubten, die wenigen Aufhellungen am Horizont des Jahres 2010 wären die Vorboten eines ewigen Sommers für die Weltwirtschaft. Und sie wird keine Gnade für die Investoren kennen, die immer noch nicht verstehen wollen, dass die Anlagearten der Welt von Gestern wie Wertpapiere und Devisen nicht die Anlagearten vor Morgen sein können; auf jeden Fall nicht für die nächsten Jahre. Geschichte ist ja nicht heimtückisch. In der Regel warnt sie, bevor sie die Welt von Gestern untergehen lässt. Diesmal gab sie die Warnung 2008 aus. Nach unserer Auffassung wird sie 2011 die Welt von Gestern untergehen lassen. Nur diejenigen, die sich entsprechend auf die neuen Bedingungen vorbereitet haben, werden bestehen. Die anderen werden ins Chaos stürzen. ---------- Noten: (1) Wie wir die Nachkriegsordnung inzwischen nennen. (2) Die kürzlich erfolgte Entscheidung des US-Arbeitsministerium, Langzeitarbeitslose bis fünf Jahre noch in der Statistik zu führen, während sie bisher schon nach zwei Jahren herausfielen, zeigt, dass die Krise in eine neue Phase eingetreten ist, in der das, was vor der Krise noch üblich war, nicht einfach fortgeschrieben werden kann. Übrigens hat die US-Regierung diese Entscheidung damit gerechtfertigt, dass die Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit wie nie zuvor angestiegen sei. Quelle: The Hill, 28/12/2010 (3) Diese Maßnahmen, ob währungspolitisch, finanziell, wirtschaftlich, haushälterisch oder außenpolitisch, sind nunmehr eng miteinander verwoben. Deshalb werden sie auch in einer Abfolge der Schocks gemeinsam zerbrechen. (4) Quelle: The Independent, 13/01/2011 (5) Es ist sogar noch schlimmer, denn erst durch die internationale Hilfe konnte die Cholera, die tausende Tote verursacht hat, auf der Insel ausbrechen. (6) Übrigens hat Timothy Geithner, der US-Finanzminister, der nicht gerade für überschäumende Phantasie bekannt ist, soeben erklärt, dass « die amerikanische Regierung sich gezwungen sehen könnte, erneut ungewöhnliche Maßnahmen zu ergreifen." Er bezog sich dabei auf die Bankenrettung 2008. Quelle: MarketWatch, 13/01/2011 (7) Übrigens sind Indien und der Iran dabei, sich einen Mechanismus für den Tausch von Gold gegen Öl einzurichten. Damit soll eine Versorgungsunterbrechung verhindert werden. Quelle: Times of India, 08/01/2011 (8) Der FAO-Index für Lebensmittelpreise hat im Januar 2011 seinen bisherigen Rekord von 215 im Mai 2008 mit nunmehr 215 übertroffen. (9) Die Banken an der Wall Street stoßen zurzeit mit großer Eile und wie noch nie zuvor seit 2004 ihre US-Staatsanleihen ab. Offiziell geben sie als Begründung an, die „hervorragende Erholung der US-Wirtschaft rechtfertige nicht mehr eine konservative Anlage in US-Staatsanleihen". Natürlich können Sie das glauben, wenn Sie wollen. Dieser Journalist bei Bloomberg in einem Artikel vom 10/01/2011 tut es ja auch. (10) Euroland bereitet sich in großen Schritten ja schon darauf vor, wie wir es in der 50. Ausgabe des GEAB beschrieben, die Investoren bei einer Refinanzierung staatlicher Schulden angesichts eines drohenden Staatsbankrotts mit einem Abschlag mit in die Haftung zu nehmen. Inzwischen verschlechtert sich auch die Situation für amerikanische und japanische Staatsanleihen. Quellen: Bloomberg, 07/01/2011; Telegraph, 05/01/2011 (11) Wir gehen davon aus, dass im Allgemeinen die Bilanzen der großen internationalen Banken zumindest 50% Scheinwerte verzeichnen, die im Laufe des Jahres um 20 bis 40% wertberichtigt werden müssen, da die Welt wieder in die Rezession gerät, die Sparpakete wirken, Kredite an Verbraucher, Unternehmen, Gemeinden und Städte sowie Staaten platzen, Währungskriege ausbrechen und die Immobilienpreise weiter einbrechen. Quelle: Forbes, 12/01/2011 (12) Jeder dieser Immobilienmärkte wird 2011 noch sehr starken Preiskorrekturen ausgesetzt sein. Chinas Immobilienmarkt, an dem die Preise bisher noch nicht gefallen waren, wird natürlich besonders hohe Abschläge hinnehmen müssen. (13) Die japanische Wirtschaft ist übrigens eines der ersten Opfer dieser Währungskriege. Inzwischen geben in einer Umfrage der Kyodo News 76% der Chefs der 110 größten japanischen Unternehmen an, dass nach ihrer Auffassung wegen des Kursanstiegs des Yen sich die Lage der japanischen Wirtschaft verschlechtern werde. Quelle: JapanTimes, 04/01/2011 (14) Hier einige aussagekräftige Beispiele, die der immer sehr lesenswerte John Rubino zusammengestellt hat. Quelle: DollarCollapse, 08/01/2011 (15) Nur zur Erinnerung, in der 48. Ausgabe des GEAB vom 15. 10.2010 hatten wir Tunesien in die Gruppe mit hohem Risiko für 2011 eingestuft. (16) Es kann auch kein Zweifel daran bestehen, dass das tunesische Beispiel zu einer Reihe von Neubewertungen in den Rating Agenturen und bei den « Experten in internationalen Beziehungen » führen wird, die wie immer im Vorfeld mal wieder nichts bemerkt hatten. Es zeigt weiterhin, dass die Satellitenstaaten des Westens im Allgemeinen und der USA im Besonderen den Schocks der folgenden Jahre in besonderem Maßen ausgesetzt sein werden. Und es bestätigt, was wir immer wieder schreiben: In einer Krise beschleunigen sich die geschichtlichen Abläufe. Das Regime von Ben Ali bestand 23 Jahre; es brach in nur wenigen Wochen zusammen. Wenn ein Regime oder eine Situation nicht mehr in die Zeit passt, geschehen Veränderungen mit beeindruckender Geschwindigkeit. Und alle arabischen pro-westlichen Regimes passen nunmehr, nach den Ereignissen in Tunesien, nicht mehr in die Zeit. (17) Es kann ebenfalls kein Zweifel daran bestehen, dass die Ohnmacht der westlichen Schutzmächte in Rabat, Kairo, Amman und Riad usw. sehr wohl beobachtet und analysiert wird. (18) Wir kommen darauf noch im Detail zu sprechen. Aber die Chinesen jedenfalls haben es schon richtig erkannt. Quelle: Xinhua, 02/01/2011 (19) Allmählich erkennen die Europäer, dass auch die Ereignisse in Peking, Moskau, Brasilia, New Delhi usw. auf ihr Leben bedeutenden Einfluss nehmen. Die Welt ist größer als nur Washington. Quellen: La Tribune, 05/01/2011; Libération, 24/12/2010; El Pais, 05/01/2011 (20) Die ganze Energie Japans wird für Versuche aufgebraucht, der Anziehungskraft Chinas zu widerstehen. Die anderen Länder des Westens sind strukturell nicht in der Lage, wesentlichen Einfluss auf die Zeitläufte zu nehmen. (21) Der Platz des Dollars im internationalen System gehört zu diesen Resten an Fundamenten, die die BRIC mit Nachdruck und systematisch zerstören. (22) Was die Defizite anbelangt, sind die USA beispielhaft. Geredet wird zwar anders, aber geändert hat sich mit der Krise nichts. Das Defizit wächst weiter exponentiell. Selbst der IWF schlägt inzwischen Alarm. Quelle: Reuters, 08/01/2011 (23) Selbst Market Watch vom 12/01/2011, das sich die Sorgen, die auf dem Forum in Davos geäußert wurden, zu eigen macht, warnt vor den Folgen einer fehlenden internationalen Koordination, die schon an für sich ein wesentliches Risiko für die Weltwirtschaft darstelle. |
| Posted: 10 Aug 2011 10:59 PM PDT - Communiqué public GEAB N°51 (15 janvier 2011) -  Ce numéro 51 du GEAB marque le cinquième anniversaire de la publication du Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin. Or, en Janvier 2006, à l'occasion du GEAB N°1, l'équipe de LEAP/E2020 indiquait à l'époque qu'une période de quatre à sept ans s'ouvrait qui serait caractérisée par la « Chute du Mur Dollar », phénomène analogue à celui de la chute du Mur de Berlin qui entraîna dans les années suivantes l'effondrement du bloc communiste, puis celui de l'URSS. Aujourd'hui, dans ce GEAB N°51 qui présente nos trente-deux anticipations pour l'année 2011, nous estimons que l'année à venir sera une année charnière dans ce processus s'étalant donc entre 2010 et 2013. Elle sera en tout état de cause une année impitoyable car elle va en effet marquer l'entrée dans la phase terminale du monde d'avant la crise (1). Depuis Septembre 2008, moment où l'évidence de la nature globale et systémique de la crise s'est imposée à tous, les Etats-Unis, et derrière eux les pays occidentaux, se sont contentés de mesures palliatives qui n'ont fait que masquer les effets de sape de la crise sur les fondements du système international contemporain. 2011 va, selon notre équipe, marquer le moment crucial où d'une part ces mesures palliatives voient leur effet anesthésiant s'évanouir tandis que, au contraire, vont brutalement surgir au premier plan les conséquences de la dislocation systémique de ces dernières années (2). En résumé, 2011 va être marquée par une série de chocs violents qui vont faire exploser les fausses protections mises en place depuis 2008 (3) et qui vont emporter un à un les « piliers » sur lesquels reposent depuis des décennies le « Mur Dollar ». Seuls les pays, collectivités, organisations et individus qui ont réellement entrepris depuis trois ans de tirer les leçons de la crise en cours pour s'éloigner au plus vite des modèles, valeurs et comportements d'avant la crise, traverseront cette année indemnes ; les autres vont être emportés dans le cortège de difficultés monétaires, financières, économiques, sociales et politiques que réserve 2011. Ainsi, comme nous considérons que 2011 sera globalement l'année la plus chaotique depuis 2006, date du début de nos travaux sur la crise, notre équipe s'est concentrée dans le GEAB N°51 sur les 32 anticipations de l'année 2011, qui comportent également nombre de recommandations pour faire face aux chocs à venir. C'est ainsi une sorte de carte prévisionnelle des chocs financiers, monétaires, politiques, économiques et sociaux des douze prochains mois qu'offre ce numéro du GEAB. Si notre équipe estime que 2011 sera l'année la plus terrible depuis 2006, date du début de notre travail d'anticipation de la crise systémique, c'est parce qu'elle est à la croisée des trois chemins du chaos mondial. Faute de traitement de fond des causes de la crise, depuis 2008 le monde n'a fait que reculer pour mieux sauter. Un système international exsangue Le premier chemin que la crise peut prendre pour générer un chaos mondial, c'est tout simplement un choc violent et imprévisible. L'état de délabrement du système international est désormais tellement avancé que sa cohésion est à la merci de toute catastrophe d'envergure (4). Il suffit de voir l'incapacité de la communauté internationale à efficacement aider Haïti depuis un an (5), des Etats-Unis à reconstruire la Nouvelle Orléans depuis six ans, de l'ONU à régler les problèmes du Darfour, de la Côte d'Ivoire depuis une décennie, des Etats-Unis à faire avancer la paix au Proche-Orient, de l'OTAN à battre les Talibans en Afghanistan, du Conseil de Sécurité à maîtriser les questions coréenne et iranienne, de l'Occident à stabiliser le Liban, du G20 à mettre fin à la crise mondiale qu'elle soit financière, alimentaire, économique, sociale, monétaire, … pour constater que sur l'ensemble de la palette des catastrophes climatiques et humanitaires, comme des crises économiques et sociales, le système international est désormais impuissant. En fait, depuis le milieu des années 2000 au moins, l'ensemble des grands acteurs mondiaux, au premier rang desquels se trouvent bien entendu les Etats-Unis et son cortège de pays occidentaux, ne fait plus que de la communication, de la gesticulation. Dans la réalité, rien ne va plus : la bille des crises tourne et chacun retient son souffle pour qu'elle ne tombe pas sur sa case. Mais progressivement la multiplication des risques et des thèmes de crise ont transformé la roulette de casino en roulette russe. Pour LEAP/E2020, le monde entier commence à jouer à la roulette russe (6), ou plutôt à sa version 2011 « la roulette américaine », avec cinq balles dans le barillet.  L'envolée des prix des matières premières (alimentaires, énergétiques (7),...) doit nous rappeler 2008 (8). C'est en effet dans le semestre précédant l'effondrement de Lehman Brothers et de Wall Street que s'est situé le précédent épisode de fortes hausses des prix des matières premières. Et les causes actuelles sont de la même nature que celles d'hier : une fuite hors des actifs financiers et monétaires en faveur de placements « concrets ». Hier les gros opérateurs fuyaient les crédits hypothécaires et tout ce qui en dépendaient ainsi que le Dollar US ; aujourd'hui ils fuient l'ensemble des valeurs financières et les bons du Trésor (ç) et autres dettes publiques. Il faut donc s'attendre entre le Printemps 2011 et l'Automne 2011 à l'explosion de la quadruple bulle des bons du Trésor, des dettes publiques (10), des bilans bancaires (11) et de l'immobilier (américain, chinois, britannique, espagnol, … et commercial (12)) ; l'ensemble se déroulant sur fond de guerre monétaire exacerbée (13). L'inflation induite par les Quantitative Easing américain, britannique et japonais et les mesures de stimulation des mêmes, des Européens et des Chinois va être l'un des facteurs déstabilisant de 2011 (14). Nous y revenons plus en détail dans ce GEAB N°51. Mais ce qui est désormais évident au regard de ce qui se passe en Tunisie (15), c'est que ce contexte mondial, notamment la hausse des prix des denrées et de l'énergie, débouche dorénavant sur des chocs sociaux et politiques radicaux (16). L'autre réalité que dévoile le cas tunisien, c'est l'impuissance des « parrains » français, italien ou américain pour empêcher l'effondrement d'un « régime-ami » (17). Impuissance des principaux acteurs géopolitiques mondiaux Et cette impuissance des principaux acteurs géopolitiques mondiaux est l'autre chemin que la crise peut utiliser pour générer un chaos mondial en 2011. En effet, on peut classer les principales puissances du G20 en deux groupes dont le point seul point commun est qu'ils ne parviennent pas à influencer les évènements de manière décisive. D'un côté on a l'Occident moribond avec, d'une part, les Etats-Unis, dont l'année 2011 va démontrer que le leadership n'est plus qu'une fiction (voir dans ce GEAB N°51) et qui tentent de figer tout le système international dans sa configuration du début des années 2000 (18) ; et puis on a l'Euroland, « souverain » en gestation qui est actuellement essentiellement concentré sur son adaptation à son nouvel environnement (19) et son nouveau statut d'entité géopolitique émergente (20), et qui n'a donc ni l'énergie, ni la vision nécessaire pour peser sur les évènements mondiaux (21). Et de l'autre côté, on trouve les BRIC (avec en particulier la Chine et la Russie) qui s'avèrent incapables pour l'instant de prendre le contrôle de tout ou partie du système international et dont la seule action se limite donc à saper discrètement ce qui reste des fondements de l'ordre d'avant la crise (22). En fin de compte, c'est donc l'impuissance qui se généralise (23) au niveau de la communauté internationale, renforçant non seulement le risque de chocs majeurs, mais également l'importance des conséquences de ces chocs. Le monde de 2008 a été pris par surprise par le choc violent de la crise, mais le système international était paradoxalement mieux équipé pour réagir car organisé autour d'un leader incontesté (24). En 2011, ça n'est plus le cas : non seulement il n'y a plus de leader incontesté, mais le système est exsangue comme on l'a vu précédemment. Et la situation est encore aggravée par le fait que les sociétés d'un grand nombre de pays de la planète sont au bord de la rupture socio-économique.  Des sociétés au bord de la rupture socio-économique C'est en particulier le cas aux Etats-Unis et en Europe où trois ans de crise commencent à peser très lourd dans la balance socio-économique, et donc politique. Les ménages américains désormais insolvables par dizaines de millions oscillent entre pauvreté subie (25) et rage anti-système. Les citoyens européens, coincés entre chômage et démantèlement de l'Etat-providence (26), commencent à refuser de payer les additions des crises financières et budgétaires et entreprennent de chercher des coupables (banques, Euro, partis politiques de gouvernement, …). Mais parmi les puissances émergentes aussi, la transition violente que constitue la crise conduit les sociétés vers des situations de rupture : en Chine, la nécessité de maîtriser les bulles financières en développement se heurte au désir d'enrichissement de secteurs entiers de la société comme au besoin d'emploi de dizaines de millions de travailleurs précaires ; en Russie, la faiblesse du filet social s'accommode mal de l'enrichissement des élites, tout comme en Algérie agitée par des émeutes. En Turquie, au Brésil, en Inde, partout la transition rapide que connaissent ces pays déclenche émeutes, protestations, attentats. Pour des raisons parfois antinomiques, développement pour les unes, appauvrissement pour les autres, un peu partout sur la planète nos différentes sociétés abordent 2011 dans un contexte de fortes tensions, de ruptures socio-économiques qui en font donc des poudrières politiques. C'est sa position à la croisée de ces trois chemins qui fait ainsi de 2011 une année impitoyable. Et impitoyable elle le sera pour les Etats (et les collectivités locales) qui ont choisi de ne pas tirer les difficiles leçons des trois années de crise qui ont précédé et/ou qui se sont contentés de changements cosmétiques ne modifiant en rien leurs déséquilibres fondamentaux. Elle le sera aussi pour les entreprises (et pour les Etats (27)) qui ont cru que l'embellie de 2010 était le signe d'un retour « à la normale » de l'économie mondiale. Et enfin elle le sera pour les investisseurs qui n'ont pas compris que les valeurs d'hier (titres, monnaies, ….) ne pouvaient pas être celles de demain (en tout cas pour plusieurs années). L'Histoire est généralement « bonne fille ». Elle donne souvent un coup de semonce avant de balayer le passé. Cette fois-ci, elle a donné le coup de semonce en 2008. Nous estimons qu'en 2011, elle donnera le coup de balai. Seuls les acteurs qui ont entrepris, même laborieusement, même partiellement, de s'adapter aux nouvelles conditions générées par la crise pourront tenir ; pour les autres le chaos est au bout du chemin. ---------- Notes: (1) Ou du monde tel qu'on le connaît depuis 1945 pour reprendre notre description de 2006. (2) La récente décision du ministère du Travail américain d'étendre à cinq ans la mesure du chômage de longue durée dans les statistiques de l'emploi US, au lieu du maximum de deux ans jusqu'à maintenant, est un bon indicateur de l'entrée dans une étape nouvelle de la crise, une étape qui voit disparaître les « habitudes » du monde d'avant. D'ailleurs, le gouvernement américain cite « la montée sans précédent » du chômage de longue durée pour justifier cette décision. Source : The Hill, 28/12/2010 (3) Ces mesures (monétaires, financières, économiques, budgétaires, stratégiques) sont désormais étroitement connectées. C'est pourquoi elles seront emportées dans une série de chocs successifs. (4) Source : The Independent, 13/01/2011 (5) C'est même pire puisque c'est l'aide internationale qui a apporté le choléra dans l'île, faisant des milliers de morts. (6) D'ailleurs Timothy Geithner, le ministre américain des Finances, peu connu pour son imagination débordante, vient d'indiquer que « le gouvernement américain pouvait avoir à nouveau à faire des choses exceptionnelles », en référence au plan de sauvetage des banques de 2008. Source : MarketWatch, 13/01/2011 (7) D'ailleurs l'Inde et l'Iran sont en train de préparer un système d'échange « or contre pétrole » pour tenter d'éviter des ruptures d'approvisionnement. Source : Times of India, 08/01/2011 (8) L'indice FAO des prix alimentaires vient de dépasser en Janvier 2011 (à 215) son précédent record de Mai 2008 (à 214). (9) Les banques de Wall Street se débarrassent actuellement à très grande vitesse (sans équivalent depuis 2004) de leurs Bons du Trésor US. Leur explication officielle est « l'amélioration remarquable de l'économie US qui ne justifie plus de se réfugier sur les Bons du Trésor ». Bien entendu, vous êtes libres de les croire comme le fait le journaliste de Bloomberg du 10/01/2011. (10) Ainsi l'Euroland avance déjà à grand pas sur le chemin décrit dans le GEAB N°50 d'une décote en cas de refinancement des dettes d'un Etat-membre ; tandis que désormais les dettes japonaise et américaine s'apprêtent à entrer dans la tourmente. Sources : Bloomberg, 07/01/2011 ; Telegraph, 05/01/2011 (11) Nous estimons que d'une manière générale les bilans des grandes banques mondiales contiennent au moins 50% d'actifs-fantômes dont l'année à venir va imposer une décote de 20% à 40% du fait du retour de la récession mondiale avec l'austérité, de la montée des défauts sur les prêts des ménages, des entreprises, des collectivités, des Etats, des guerres monétaires et de la reprise de la chute de l'immobilier. Les « stress-tests » américain, européen, chinois, japonais ou autres peuvent toujours continuer à tenter de rassurer les marchés avec des scénarios « Bisounours » sauf que cette année c'est « Alien contre Predator » qui est au programme des banques. Source : Forbes, 12/01/2011 (12) Chacun de ces marchés immobiliers va encore fortement baisser en 2011 pour ceux qui ont déjà entamer leur chute ces dernières années, ou dans le cas chinois, va entamer son dégonflement brutal sur fond de ralentissement économique et de rigueur monétaire. (13) L'économie japonaise est d'ailleurs l'une des premières victimes de cette guerre des monnaies, avec 76% des chefs d'entreprises des 110 grandes sociétés nippones sondées par Kyodo News se déclarant désormais pessimistes pour la croissance japonaise en 2011 suite à la hausse du Yen. Source : JapanTimes, 04/01/2011 (14) Voici quelques exemples édifiants rassemblés par l'excellent John Rubino. Source : DollarCollapse, 08/01/2011 (15) Pour rappel, dans le GEAB N°48, du 15/10/2010, nous avions classé la Tunisie dans les « pays à risques importants » pour 2011. (16) Nul doute d'ailleurs que l'exemple tunisien génère une salve de réévaluation parmi les agences de notation et les « experts en géopolitiques » qui, comme d'habitude, n'ont rien vu venir. Le cas tunisien illustre également le fait que ce sont désormais les pays satellites de l'Occident en général, et des Etats-Unis en particulier, qui sont sur le chemin des chocs de 2011 et des années à venir. Et il confirme ce que nous répétons régulièrement, une crise accélère tous les processus historiques. Le régime Ben Ali, vieux de vingt-trois ans, s'est effondré en quelques semaines. Quand l'obsolescence politique est là, tout bascule vite. Or c'est l'ensemble des régimes arabes pro-occidentaux qui est désormais obsolète à l'aune des évènements de Tunisie. (17) Nul doute que cette paralysie des « parrains occidentaux » va être soigneusement analysée à Rabat, au Caire, à Djeddah et Amman par exemple. (18) Configuration qui leur était la plus favorable puisque sans contrepoids à leur influence. (19) Nous y revenons plus en détail dans ce numéro du GEAB, mais vu de Chine, on ne s'y trompe pas. Source : Xinhua, 02/01/2011 (20) Petit à petit les Européens découvrent qu'ils sont dépendants d'autres centres de pouvoir que Washington. Pékin, Moscou, Brasilia, New Delhi, … entrent très lentement dans le paysage des partenaires essentiels. Source : La Tribune, 05/01/2011 ; Libération, 24/12/2010 ; El Pais, 05/01/2011 (21) Toute l'énergie du Japon est concentrée sur sa tentative désespérée de résister à l'attraction chinoise. Quant aux autres pays occidentaux, ils ne sont pas en mesure d'influer significativement sur les tendances mondiales. (22) La place du Dollar US dans le système mondial fait partie de ces derniers fondements que les BRIC érodent activement jour après jour. (23) En matière de déficit, le cas américain est exemplaire. Au-delà du discours, tout continue comme avant la crise avec un déficit en gonflement exponentiel. Pourtant même le FMI tire désormais la sonnette d'alarme. Source : Reuters, 08/01/2011 (24) D'ailleurs même MarketWatch du 12/01/2011, se faisant l'écho du Forum de Davos, s'inquiète de l'absence de coordination internationale, qui est en soi un risque majeur pour l'économie mondiale. (25) Des millions d'Américains découvrent les banques alimentaires pour la première fois de leur vie, tandis qu'en Californie, comme dans de nombreux autres états, le système éducatif se désagrège rapidement. En Illinois, les études sur le déficit de l'Etat le comparent désormais au Titanic. 2010 bat le record des saisies immobilières. Sources : Alternet, 27/12/2010 ; CNN, 08/01/2011 ; IGPA-Illinois, 01/2011 ; LADailyNews, 13/01/2011 (26) L'Irlande qui est face à une reconstruction pure et simple de son économie est un bon exemple de situations à venir. Mais même l'Allemagne, aux résultats économiques pourtant remarquables actuellement, n'échappe pas à cette évolution comme le montre la crise du financement des activités culturelles. Tandis qu'au Royaume-Uni, des millions de retraités voient leurs revenus amputés pour la troisième année consécutive. Sources : Irish Times, 31/12/2010 ; London Trader - Many Gold Shorts Wiped Out, Lost Everything! Posted: 10 Aug 2011 10:58 PM PDT With gold hovering near Jim Sinclair's resistance point at $1,764, a trader out of London told King World News today, "I fully expect to have $2 moves in silver and $50 moves in gold as absolutely normal at this point. If you don't expect that, you are not going to understand what is going on, but don't forget that we are in August and you normally have juniors manning the desks. This is highly unusual and we do have very thin liquidity in the metals. So that's one of the reasons you are seeing things move so quickly in both metals. You are talking about a one minute bar in gold being a ten dollar range." London Trader continues: "The physical buyers still have not been filled and they are getting nervous. The buyers in size have not been filled and they are underpinning this gold market. If gold pulls back the buyers will get some fills, if not they are going to have to start chasing this market. In fact, don't be surprised to see a $100 move in gold if they lose patience." When asked about shorts who have been badly mauled he responded, "Well what's happened with the shorts that were in there is they were absolutely crushed on that overnight rise on Monday. There were some margin calls on some serious players. There were some anguished faces on Monday. These guys in London woke up with their asses handed to them and I don't think some of these guys will ever be short again, if they are still in business. So some of these perennial shorts that have always joined in the party got screwed, I mean literally lost everything. For the ones that didn't lose everything, they certainly lost an awful lot. Gold just gapped up and didn't come back and these guys were heavily short. I believe there is still enough momentum to push gold into the $1,800's. We are moving into season now and things are happening in China that will impact the markets in due course. Because we have been seeing that point of capitulation, we have been witnessing some dramatic moves as the shorts have been mauled, and as I mentioned, in some cases to the point of ending careers." This trader previously called the $50 overnight move in gold prior to it happening and also said the shorts would get crushed. Shortly thereafter both events took place. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...erything!.html |
| Posted: 10 Aug 2011 10:30 PM PDT Thailand's police have announced an increase in measures designed to protect the shops of gold traders in Bangkok - a side-effect of the recent surge in gold prices. The extension of the safety ... |
| Fed and Q.E. to Cause Financial Collapse and Hyperinflation: John Embry Posted: 10 Aug 2011 09:17 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverGold rose about twenty bucks within the first couple of hours of trading on Wednesday morning in the Far East, but a not-for-profit seller showed up and sold it back to unchanged shortly after 8:00 a.m. Hong Kong time. From that low, it rose and fell about fifteen dollars...and hit its low of the day about forty-five minutes before the London open. But from there, it was onwards and ever upwards until a few minutes after 11:00 a.m. in New York...where it came within a dollar of breaking through the magic $1,800/ounce price level...before another not-for-profit seller showed up to sell it down about thirty bucks. The bottom of that sell-off came at 2:30 p.m. in the New York Access Market...and then a rally began that ended virtually on its high of the day at $1,795.40 spot...up $51.40 from Tuesday's close. Volume was huge, but not in the same league as Tuesday's record volume day.
Silver's price path was similar. It rose smartly at the open, got smacked at 8:00 a.m. Hong Kong time, hit its low about forty-five minutes before the London open. The seventy-five cent rally that began at precisely 11:30 a.m. Eastern, got capped at precisely 12:00 noon thirty minutes later. From there, the price wasn't allowed to do much...and [for the third day in a row] the price was not allowed to pass the $39.50 mark. Despite that, silver closed up $1.58 from Tuesday. Volume was down quite a bit, but still pretty decent.
By the way, in case you missed it, there was something that happened yesterday that hasn't occurred for many, many years. The gold price closed higher than price of platinum The dollar waffled around the 74 cent mark from the open...but drifted down to it's low of the day, which was around 73.84 around 6:30 a.m. Eastern...11:30 London time. From there, a rally of some substance emerged...and from its low to the 5:15 p.m. New York close, the dollar was up a hair under 100 basis points. There isn't a hint in the gold chart anywhere that the machinations of the dollar had any effect whatsoever. Gold is now trading as a currency in its own right, independent of all fiat currencies...and I expect that trend to continue well into the future.
The gold stocks started off yesterday's trading day in negative territory, probably in sympathy with the general equity market markets. But, starting around 10:15 a.m. Eastern, the shares found their feet...and away they went. At one time the HUI was up almost five percent...but got sold off as the general equity markets headed south...closing up 3.14%. I would bet serious coin that the major part of the rally in the gold and silver stocks yesterday was short covering by those funds that had been long the metals and short the shares...especially the juniors...as a lot of my junior silver companies finished the day with gains in the double digits...so they benefited from short covering as well.
Despite all this short covering in the shares, Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index was only up 2.16%...as several of the major U.S. gold and silver producers that make up this index actually finished down on the day.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 62 gold, along with one whole silver contract, were posted for delivery tomorrow. Most of the issuers and stoppers were the smaller Commercial traders...Jefferies, Pioneer and Barclays. JPMorgan and the Bank of Nova Scotia were hardly a presence at all. As of yesterday, there were still 2,761 August gold contracts that had still not been closed out, or delivered into. Surprisingly enough, both GLD and SLV showed withdrawals yesterday. GLD showed a smallish withdrawal of 12,195 troy ounces...which could have been a fee payment...and SLV's stockpile showed a withdrawal of 799,661 ounces. Based on yesterday's price action in silver, it would be my guess that an 'authorized participant' redeemed their shares and took delivery. While I'm on the subject of the SLV...I noticed that the short position in this ETF took a real nosedive yesterday...falling by 23.44% from the report two weeks ago...all the way down to 23,932,300 shares sold short. The prior report showed 31,260,000 shares held short. Let's see if this trend continues as times moves along. There was a small sales report from the U.S. Mint yesterday, as they reported selling another 9,500 ounces of gold eagles. There were big silver withdrawals from the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday. They reported shipping 1,290,922 troy ounces out the door...and received nothing. All the activity came from Brinks, HSBC and Scotia Mocatta. The link to that action is here. I 'borrowed' a paragraph from silver analyst Ted Butler's latest commentary to his paying subscribers yesterday that I thought you would be interested in. "In gold, a different pattern has emerged, that I first alluded to on Saturday. Price action and daily statistics continue to suggest that commercial short covering may be a major contributor to the stunning gains. Never have we witnessed such large price gains in gold after a large commercial short position was established.. As I wrote on Saturday, the largest 4 commercial shorts in COMEX gold had bought back a notable number of futures contracts in the latest COT report, breaking away from the 5 thru 8 largest shorts and the gold raptors which both added to their short positions. This throws out hints that the gold commercial shorts may be in trouble. Certainly, it is easy to calculate that the almost hundred dollar jump in the price of gold on Monday and Tuesday has cost the 8 largest COMEX gold shorts over $3 billion in mark to market losses and margin calls. That's over $360 million per trader on average. These sudden losses are unprecedented and suggestive that a real emergency may be at hand. While I can't be sure, it seems to me that the sudden outbreak of unease in world financial markets may have driven enough worried investors to buy protection in gold and that this physical buying may have tipped the scales against the big COMEX shorts." Here's an interesting chart that Peter Degraaf sent me yesterday. As he [gleefully?] points out..."Once again an ounce of silver is worth more than a share of stock in JPMorgan."
Here's a photo taken by Stephanie Powell, Chris Powell's daughter, at the conference in London that I was privileged to attend last week. This was the closing panel discussion during the Friday afternoon session. I'm seated between John Embry and Jim Sinclair...and that's James Turk on the far right.
Can this rally continue? You betcha! If the shorts are covering, then this overbought situation could last for a very long time...and the bullion banks could finally get overrun. Many Gold Shorts Wiped Out, Losing Everything. CME hikes gold margins, but prices still rising. No sign of gold losing its appeal as it hits $1,780 the ounce. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeCalifornia tax revenues plunge, deep cuts to schools could be triggeredHere's a story that I stole from yesterday's King Report. California's tax revenues plummeted in July, falling more than 10% below expectations and making it more likely that deeper cuts to public schools built into the state budget in case of a stalled economic recovery will occur. Gov. Jerry Brown and state lawmakers patched up the final $4 billion of California's budget shortfall this year by hoping for a windfall economic recovery. Those hopes are now fading fast. Tax collections in July were $538.8 million below budget forecasts, according to state Controller John Chiang. The story was in Tuesday's edition of the L.A. Times...and the link is here.  How to 'fix' a market: John CrudeleRelax, all Washington has to do is rig the stock market. Yes, you heard me right: rig the market -- as in, make sure it doesn't go any lower and scare the hell out of all the good, conscientious investors who once again trusted Wall Street to do what was right by them. Sure, it would be a black eye to the American way of life. We believe in free, fairly traded markets. But that was back when we were naive and thought that America would never lose its innocence, the Ryder Cup or its AAA bond rating. This story was posted in the wee hours of Wednesday morning...and is an item from the New York Post. I stole in from a GATA release...and it's your first must read of the day. The link is here.  The Fed is a Rogue Elephant: Ambrose Evans-PritchardThe Bernanke Fed has more or less ignored headline inflation until now, arguing that what matters is "core" inflation. This strips out energy, fuel and food, which none of us consume of course. Unfortunately, core inflation has been catching up lately. The Dallas Fed's "trimmed mean" measure known as core PCE has risen (on a six-month annualized basis) from 0.9pc in January to 2.1pc in June. So what the does the Fed do? It switches tack and says that headline inflation is not such a bad gauge after all. They do this knowing that the oil and food shock has subsided and that the headline rate will fall back for a while. This will create the impression that inflation is abating. This longish piece was posted over at The Telegraph yesterday. It's a Roy Stephens offering...and the link is here.  British rioters: the spawn of a bankrupt ruling eliteThe riots in London and elsewhere in Britain are a backhanded tribute to the long-term intellectual torpor, moral cowardice, incompetence and careerist opportunism of the British political and intellectual class. They have somehow managed not to notice what has long been apparent to anyone who has taken a short walk with his eyes open down any frequented British street: that a considerable proportion of the country's young population (a proportion that is declining) is ugly, aggressive, vicious, badly educated, uncouth and criminally inclined. Unfortunately, while it is totally lacking in self-respect, it is full of self-esteem: that is to say, it believes itself entitled to a high standard of living, and other things, without any effort on its own part. This story appeared in this morning's edition of The Australian...and I thank reader Wesley Legrand for sharing it with us. The link is here.  Bail-outs chip away at France and Germany tooInvestors have begun to question whether France and Germany can credibly underwrite the debts of southern Europe without losing their AAA ratings and succumbing to the crisis themselves. Credit Default Swaps (CDS) measuring risk on German bonds have doubled since early July to 85 basis points, rising above British CDS contracts for the first time despite the London riots. Non-EMU Sweden enjoys lower borrowing costs than Germany. This has not been seen for half a century. This is another Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering...and it's courtesy of Roy Stephens once again . I consider this worth the read...and the link is here.  French bank shares slump as rumours swirl around Société GénéraleSociété Générale, France's second-biggest bank, lost more than a fifth of its stock exchange value at one point on Wednesday afternoon following rumours that the bank was in serious financial difficulties and had held an emergency meeting with France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy. The sudden fall in the shares, which wiped almost €3bn (£2.6bn) off the company's market value, raised fears that the 147-year-old bank might be on the brink of collapse. A Société Générale spokesman said the bank "categorically denies all market rumours", but he refused to comment more specifically. This was filed in The Guardian late last night...and it's well worth skimming. I thank Roy Stephens again...and the link is here. CME hikes gold margins, but prices still rising Posted: 10 Aug 2011 09:17 PM PDT  Here's a story that should be no surprise to anyone. U.S. exchange operator CME Group said late Wednesday it is raising the margin requirements for trade in a wide range of gold products, effective Thursday. The speculative margin requirement for a new position in Comex 100 gold futures will rise to $7,425 from $6,075, or to $5,500 from $4,500 for existing "current maintenance" margins. However, benchmark gold futures extended their rise in the wake of the announcement. Comex gold for December delivery rose to $1,807 an ounce from its $1,784 New York settlement level Wednesday, ahead of the CME announcement. |
| French bank shares slump as rumours swirl around Société Générale Posted: 10 Aug 2011 09:17 PM PDT  Société Générale, France's second-biggest bank, lost more than a fifth of its stock exchange value at one point on Wednesday afternoon following rumours that the bank was in serious financial difficulties and had held an emergency meeting with France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy. The sudden fall in the shares, which wiped almost €3bn (£2.6bn) off the company's market value, raised fears that the 147-year-old bank might be on the brink of collapse. A Société Générale spokesman said the bank "categorically denies all market rumours", but he refused to comment more specifically. |
| James Turk interviews Eric Sprott at GATA's London conference Posted: 10 Aug 2011 09:17 PM PDT  GoldMoney founder James Turk interviewed Sprott Asset Management CEO Eric Sprott during GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London last weekend and they discussed the precious metals price suppression scheme, Sprott's belief that silver will be the investment of the next decade, how the Sprott gold and silver funds differ drastically from the gold and silver exchange-traded funds, the catastrophic leverage in the banking system, gold's return as currency, and GATA's work. |
| Fed & QE to Cause Financial Collapse & Hyperinflation: John Embry Posted: 10 Aug 2011 09:17 PM PDT  Eric King posted a blog of an interview that was posted at his KWN website late last night. It's not a long read, but I consider it well worth your time. The link is here. |
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