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- Silver: That's One Tough Bubble
- The Silver Correction Is Over, Next Stop $62
- Three Cs Going Crazy in Commodities
- Precious Metals and Mining Stocks: An Update Part 2
- Precious Metals and Mining Stocks: An Update Part 1
- Should Oil Be Priced in Euros?
- April ETF Roundup: 43 Funds Make Their Debut
- Silver: After Exiting Positions, Evaluating What's Next
- “Three Peaks” Pattern Suggests Gold to Decline 17% into June!
- Bin Laden Death a Non-Event
- Use the Silver Dip to Convert Paper Silver into Physical Silver
- Not all Cars Deperciate in Value
- No silver bubble, but a correction is overdue
- If the $US falls in a forest, does anyone hear it?
- Gold versus silver and other commodities
- Silver CRUSHED in thin overnight trading... Gold holding strong
- Energy guru Schork: Get ready for all-time high gas prices
- Nine places where inflation is crushing American households
- What the hell?
- Gold and Silvers Daily Review for April 29th, 2011
- View From the Turret: Resolving Higher
- Gold and silver prices higher on inflation worries
- With Silver Soaring, Attics Give Up Small Fortunes
- Gold price falls on news of bin Laden’s death
| Silver: That's One Tough Bubble Posted: 02 May 2011 06:33 AM PDT  Tim Iacono submits: Amid a flurry of hiked margin requirements in recent days by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, CME Group, MF Global, Think or Swim, and probably a handful of other groups, the silver price plunged spectacularly late on Sunday only to mount what has been, so far, a truly remarkable recovery. It's more evidence that, if this is just one big speculative bubble, it's a pretty tough one. Complete Story » |
| The Silver Correction Is Over, Next Stop $62 Posted: 02 May 2011 06:32 AM PDT Brian Kelly submits: The 10% + plunge in silver has some asking if the rally is over while others are claiming the bubble has popped - neither view is accurate. Let's examine what really happened. The most important piece of news on the silver market has been missed by many ... that is the decision by Bolivia NOT to nationalize its mines. While margin increases by the CME (CME), MF Global (MF), and Think or Swim likely exacerbated the sell-off, it was not the cause of the decline. Since the strike at the San Cristobal mine (third largest silver mine in the world) and the subsequent threat by Bolivian President Morales to nationalize the mining industry, silver has climbed over 30%. To put this in perspective, at this pace silver would reach $100 /oz. by the end of the year. There are not many certainties in investing, but one thing is for sure Complete Story » |
| Three Cs Going Crazy in Commodities Posted: 02 May 2011 06:27 AM PDT Econ Grapher submits: With silver spiraling out of control, it's worth checking in on some of the other commodities. Indeed the agricultural or soft commodities have, as a group, been surging in recent times, sending the Dow Jones UBS commodities index up over 30% year on Complete Story » |
| Precious Metals and Mining Stocks: An Update Part 2 Posted: 02 May 2011 06:08 AM PDT Pater Tenebrarum submits: Below are a few charts of gold mining stocks that we have either discussed previously or that have recently caught our eye. The shares of the two most marginal South African producers have fared quite well recently, inter alia as a result of the strong showing of the Rand gold price. SA's gold producers are currently enjoying lower winter tariffs for electricity as well, which greatly benefits their margins. In the case of Harmony (HMY), the market has accorded the stock a higher valuation on account of the previously discussed (scroll down) discovery of the high grade Wafi-Golpu gold-copper porphyry system in Papua New Guinea (a.k.a "the gold strike of the century"). The most recent company presentation about the discovery can be found here . The most marginal of the major gold producers in South Africa, Durban Deep, has recently announced it plans to sell its Complete Story » |
| Precious Metals and Mining Stocks: An Update Part 1 Posted: 02 May 2011 06:08 AM PDT Pater Tenebrarum submits: Some Comments On The Blow-off Rally In Silver The near parabolic rally in silver has continued with some verve, probably surprising bulls and bears alike with its persistence. Silver has now achieved a positive close in 13 of the past 14 weeks, rallying from a mid January low of just above $26/oz. to an intraday high at just below $50/oz., closing last week at $47.87. The long term target of $55/oz., which we mentioned as a potential long term target (see this chart from a previous update ; at the time we said: "we'd be surprised if it gets that far in this move") has in the meantime become a possible short term target. However, it should be noted that the old high at just below $50/oz. from the 1979/80 Hunt silver corner rally represents formidable technical resistance. The market has an elephant memory when it comes to old highs or Complete Story » |
| Should Oil Be Priced in Euros? Posted: 02 May 2011 06:05 AM PDT Carlos X. Alexandre submits:c Everyone knows that oil is priced in dollars, but let's make one thing extremely clear: The buyer does not have to pay in dollars, unless the seller gives no other option. Here's a simple example. Saudi Arabia sells one barrel of oil to Japan. The prevailing price is $100 and the dollar/yen exchange rate on that day is 80 yen per dollar. Thus, Japan can pay Saudi Arabia 8,000 yen and the deal is done — unless Saudi Arabia insists on receiving American dollars or some other currency. If oil was priced in yen, or 8,000 yen per barrel, sellers may still insist on being paid in dollars, euros, or whatever currency they fancy. Furthermore, sellers can exchange their dollars for any other freely-traded currency at a click of a mouse. There's no need for secret meetings and undercover work. But there are ramifications about pricing oil and other commodities Complete Story » |
| April ETF Roundup: 43 Funds Make Their Debut Posted: 02 May 2011 05:39 AM PDT Jarred Cummans submits: April was somewhat of a calming month for markets, as geopolitical concerns took a back seat to earnings reports and a relatively uneventful Federal Reserve meeting. This month saw two of the world's most popular commodities, oil and gold, soar to levels not seen since before the market crashed in 2008. In fact, gold is at a historic high, settling at well over $1,500 per ounce as April came to a close. Along with busy markets, the ETF world saw a surge in activity the past four weeks in what is arguably the busiest month ever for the exchange traded industry. April saw the introduction of 43 new funds with plenty of filings to go with it, giving investors plenty of new options to sort through in the coming weeks. New ETFs ETFs that began trading in April include:
Complete Story » |
| Silver: After Exiting Positions, Evaluating What's Next Posted: 02 May 2011 05:36 AM PDT Eric Parnell submits: I exited my silver position on Friday. It wasn't that I didn't like the fundamental story behind the white metal. I still do. But after holding a position in silver for two years and enjoying the remarkable spike higher in recent months, which I discussed in my recent posts "Navigating the Silver Mania: Exiting Long Positions May Be Prudent" and "The Time to Reallocate from Silver to Gold Draws Near," the time was right on Friday to lock in gains and head to the sidelines. While silver is now gone from my portfolio, it is not necessarily forgotten. Instead, it is still worth watching closely for potential opportunities to get back in. My decision to sell on Friday was driven by several factors. First, after skyrocketing over +160% since Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech on August 27, 2010, silver has reached a critical resistance level. This is the previous nominal high Complete Story » |
| “Three Peaks” Pattern Suggests Gold to Decline 17% into June! Posted: 02 May 2011 05:28 AM PDT There are a number of different ways to look at what has been happening with the price of gold and silver of late and to anticipate what is in store for them next. One of the most unique ways of assessing past, present and future movement is by taking a look at their "Three Peaks and the Domed House" and "Bump and Run" chart patterns. In deed, the "Three Peaks" pattern suggests that gold has peaked and will now decline by 17% to $1,290 per ozt. in June. Let me explain. Words: 835 |
| Posted: 02 May 2011 03:39 AM PDT My intentions had been to simply ignore media reports that the U.S. had killed its #1 Boogeyman. After all, there is practically nothing "newsworthy" about the event. However, the cacophony of the media parrots simply drowned-out all other thoughts (and real news) this morning. There is a very simple test which we can use on any/every item of fact, in order to determine if it has any "news value": is the world a different place after such news than it was before the news? In this respect, the death of Osama Bin Laden is a complete non-event: it changes absolutely nothing in the world. Even if we were to treat the farcical U.S. "War on Terror" as a legitimate campaign rather than just a front for more despicable U.S. imperialism (i.e. the War For Drugs in Afghanistan, and the War For Oil in Iraq), Bin Laden's death changes nothing. At the beginning of this fabricated "war", the death of Osama Bin Laden would have likely been greeted with another "Mission Accomplished" boast by George Bush Junior. Today, it will not result in even one U.S. soldier being sent back home. It is an event which does not lead to or imply any other progress in this (intentional) war-with-no-end. On the opposite side, it neither harms nor demoralizes any of the Arab factions currently confronting the U.S. war-machine, as even the mainstream media acknowledges that Bin Laden no longer had any operational relevance in Al Qaeda. If killing this "enemy" neither helps "us" or weakens "them", then how could it possibly have any significance? However, the mainstream media has never allowed minor considerations such as "facts" or "logic" to get in their way when it comes to sensationalizing an event in order to further their general propaganda-campaign. Want U.S. markets to go higher? Bin Laden's death will do that. Want the price of gold, silver, and oil to go lower? Bin Laden's death will do that. Indeed, I have been poring over media reports this morning to find out if Bin Laden's death will also be identified as a cure for the "common cold". |
| Use the Silver Dip to Convert Paper Silver into Physical Silver Posted: 02 May 2011 03:21 AM PDT |
| Not all Cars Deperciate in Value Posted: 02 May 2011 02:08 AM PDT Take for instance this car:  Although the premium on insurance is high as everyone is trying to scrape some off in an 'accident' oh, and not all toilets are s**t either....would you buy this one at melt..mmmmeellllt? I better get thanked on this post... |
| No silver bubble, but a correction is overdue Posted: 02 May 2011 02:00 AM PDT Nico Pantelis writes -- Last Saturday I attended one of Belgium's most popular investment conferences, along with more than 1,300 private investors. Surveys from the organising body have ... |
| If the $US falls in a forest, does anyone hear it? Posted: 02 May 2011 01:45 AM PDT If the dollar didnt rally on that Bin Laden news, I hate to say it, this may be the end soon. Oh and I just heard Dennis Gartman say Live on BNN, "There is no trade in Silver, its so volatile its no place for amateurs, and no pro trader wants anything to do with it." Right... |
| Gold versus silver and other commodities Posted: 02 May 2011 01:36 AM PDT Speculative Investor |
| Silver CRUSHED in thin overnight trading... Gold holding strong Posted: 02 May 2011 01:23 AM PDT From Bloomberg: Silver futures plunged as much as 13 percent, the biggest intraday drop since October 2008, as CME Group Inc. raised the amount of cash that traders must deposit for speculative positions. Initial margins increased to $14,513 a contract from $12,825, CME, the parent of Comex where the futures are traded, said in a statement, effective from the close on April 29. Silver futures advanced 28 percent in April, the largest monthly gain since January 1983, as investors bought precious metals as an alternative to a falling dollar and hedge against inflation. “We got massive sell orders in the spot market,” Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty, said in a phone interview from Sydney today. “Those sorts of moves may be an indicator of a key reversal, but it will often take one or two weeks to unfold.” Silver for July delivery dropped to $42.20 an ounce before trading at $45.455 an ounce by 7:30 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Gold for June delivery rose 40 cents to $1,556.80 an ounce after earlier today climbing to a record $1,577.40 an ounce. Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed by a team of U.S. operatives after a firefight at a house in Pakistan, President Barack Obama said. Obama delivered the news to the nation almost 10 years after the Sept. 11 attacks that bin Laden orchestrated. “The news offers enough grounds for crude oil to slip as people will expect more stability in the region,” said Chae Un Soo, a Seoul-based trader at KEB Futures Co. “By the same token, gold and silver may decline further along with falling oil.” Crude oil futures dropped 1.5 percent in New York. Best Performer Silver is the best performer this year on the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities. The metal led the way in April as commodities beat stocks, bonds and the dollar for a fifth straight month, the longest stretch in at least 14 years. Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators cut their net-long positions in New York silver futures by 26 percent in the week ended April 26, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will gain, outnumbered short positions by 24,995 contracts on the Comex, the CFTC said. Silver surged after investment demand jumped 40 percent in 2010 as inflation gained, currencies lost value and Europe’s debt crisis escalated, according to London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. Industrial use gained 21 percent last year, it said. Eastman Kodak Co., the 130-year-old imaging company, is raising prices and cutting its dependence on silver to cope with escalating costs, the company said last week. Platinum for July delivery gained 40 cents to $1,865.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange and palladium for June delivery dropped $3.15, or 0.4 percent, to $789 an ounce.Silver futures plunged as much as 13 percent, the biggest intraday drop since October 2008, as CME Group Inc. raised the amount of cash that traders must deposit for speculative positions. Initial margins increased to $14,513 a contract from $12,825, CME, the parent of Comex where the futures are traded, said in a statement, effective from the close on April 29. Silver futures advanced 28 percent in April, the largest monthly gain since January 1983, as investors bought precious metals as an alternative to a falling dollar and hedge against inflation. "We got massive sell orders in the spot market," Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty, said in a phone interview from Sydney today. "Those sorts of moves may be an indicator of a key reversal, but it will often take one or two weeks to unfold." Silver for July delivery dropped to $42.20 an ounce before trading at $45.455 an ounce by 7:30 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Gold for June delivery rose 40 cents to $1,556.80 an ounce after earlier today climbing to a record $1,577.40 an ounce. Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed by a team of U.S. operatives after a firefight at a house in Pakistan, President Barack Obama said. Obama delivered the news to the nation almost 10 years after the Sept. 11 attacks that bin Laden orchestrated. "The news offers enough grounds for crude oil to slip as people will expect more stability in the region," said Chae Un Soo, a Seoul-based trader at KEB Futures Co. "By the same token, gold and silver may decline further along with falling oil." Crude oil futures dropped 1.5 percent in New York. Best Performer Silver is the best performer this year on the Standard & Poor's GSCI Index of 24 commodities. The metal led the way in April as commodities beat stocks, bonds and the dollar for a fifth straight month, the longest stretch in at least 14 years. Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators cut their net-long positions in New York silver futures by 26 percent in the week ended April 26, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will gain, outnumbered short positions by 24,995 contracts on the Comex, the CFTC said. Silver surged after investment demand jumped 40 percent in 2010 as inflation gained, currencies lost value and Europe's debt crisis escalated, according to London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. Industrial use gained 21 percent last year, it said. Eastman Kodak Co., the 130-year-old imaging company, is raising prices and cutting its dependence on silver to cope with escalating costs, the company said last week. Platinum for July delivery gained 40 cents to $1,865.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange and palladium for June delivery dropped $3.15, or 0.4 percent, to $789 an ounce. To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Scott in Perth at jscott14@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net. More on silver: How to buy gas for $0.25 per gallon If you own gold or silver stocks, this analysis could surprise you When the parabolic move in silver is done, this is how far it could fall |
| Energy guru Schork: Get ready for all-time high gas prices Posted: 02 May 2011 01:18 AM PDT From Pragmatic Capitalism: Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group, explains why he believes oil and gas prices should continue to surge higher. He explains that he is bearish from a fundamental perspective, but that the dollar could continue to decline as... Read full article (with video)... More on energy: This beaten-down commodity is now the No. 1 "safe energy bet" Op-Ed: Why Congress should pass the Pickens natural gas plan Top energy analyst: This is a huge buying opportunity in oil and gas |
| Nine places where inflation is crushing American households Posted: 02 May 2011 01:17 AM PDT From Economic Policy Journal: ... The Federal Reserve would have you believe everything is fine, focusing on core inflation rates and ignoring broader measures of inflation as they affect food and energy. These commodity-driven prices, as our central banking overlords would have you believe, are naturally more volatile and shouldn't be overstated. You would think after Fed bureaucrat William Dudley was castigated for talking up the affordability of iPads while ignoring real family expenses, our Federal Reserve officials would have woken up to reality... Here are nine crushing costs of inflation that are breaking many American households: 1. Beef In a revised forecast Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said consumers will see higher price tags on ground beef and steak, projecting... Read full article... More on inflation: One of the last remaining deflationists throws in the towel Wal-Mart CEO warns: Our shoppers are "running out of money" If you missed the rocket ride in silver, this could be your next big chance |
| Posted: 02 May 2011 12:59 AM PDT Slowly but surely, the numbers in red are getting smaller and smaller. Last night gold was $20+ down, while silver was $6+ down. Now silver is down $1.94 and gold down $7.30. We might just end up in the green after all. :banana: |
| Gold and Silvers Daily Review for April 29th, 2011 Posted: 02 May 2011 12:22 AM PDT Gold Forecaster |
| View From the Turret: Resolving Higher Posted: 01 May 2011 10:34 PM PDT
Last week we noted that equities were in "no man's land," as overhead resistance and macroeconomic risks were weighed against bullish liquidity and improving chart patterns. But now that the benchmarks have all resolved higher, the current environment calls for more bullish exposure. Of course as traders, we have to be constantly aware of the risks. Higher commodity prices, and liquidity fueled rallies carry much more risks than bull markets built on solid economic growth. But the price action is clearly indicating that bulls have both the capital and the inclination to push prices higher. Last weeks Global Macro Notes discussed the concept of pension fund managers putting capital to work because of return targets which they must hit in order to meet payout requirements. In a zero interest rate environment, these managers are forced to make bets farther down the risk curve. That means more exposure to equities, and could help to explain the strong bid behind blue-chip, large cap stocks. Heading into the week, we're expecting capital to continue to flow towards high-quality large cap names. With several industries offering attractive inflection points, we will likely be putting more capital to work. However, given the macro risks, our allocations will still remain relatively light. This environment is a great opportunity for hitting some singles and possibly doubles. It's not a good period to begin swinging for the fences. Insurers Look Attractive A number of key insurance companies will be reporting earnings this week. On Friday, the Mercenary Live Feed posted Thesis Notes on the group noting a few key potential drivers for the group.
Prudential Financial (PRU) reports earnings on Wednesday and is currently working through a multi-week wedge pattern. Fundamentally, the company is posting strong growth while the valuation is relatively cheap. Prudential has a debt level that is higher than peers, but the company's financial position is still relatively strong. The earnings report adds uncertainty to the mix this week. We will be watching to see how traders react to the new information. In addition to the individual stock performance, we will be attentive to the movement of the group as a whole. If the industry begins attracting new capital, the rising tide will likely float all boats.
Rails on a Roll Railroad stocks were propelled higher last week after a strong earnings report from Norfolk Southern (NSC). First quarter earnings surged 26% above last year's level, and more importantly, management issued a strong outlook for the rest of the year. Demand has been strong across multiple shipping categories. Coal and retail goods were particularly strong.
While traders cheered the report from NSC, some investors are still worried about the sector. WSJ covered an industry report from Jefferies, which warned of tougher year-over-year comparisons and some areas of slowing growth. CSX Corp. (CSX) traded higher last week, but failed to overtake the March highs. The action represents a significant diversion between two of the major group stocks.
Which way will the situation resolve? It's tough to tell… But at this point, the bullish action in the broad indices and the bid for high-quality blue chip stocks appears to have the upper hand. We will be watching the individual components of the group this week, along with the movement of other transports to gauge industry strength. A consolidation of recent gains, followed by a new surge in price, could give us an exceptional entry point with well defined risk.  Base Metals Fail to Keep Up On the bearish side of the ledger, the action in base metals raises some significant questions. If the domestic recovery is healthy, and emerging markets continue to expand, then we should see strong demand for base metals used in construction and infrastructure buildout. But the price action in this area has been quite anemic and on Firday the PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) hit a new one-month low. After a choppy week of trading, DBB closed below key moving average support and looks vulnerable.
On Friday, the Live Feed took a more specific short position in copper. The industrial metal is challenging support levels and is a relative laggard when compared to the weakening group. Precious Metal Parabolic Top? As international markets begin another week of trading, there is significant activity in the precious metals area. Gold began the premarket session by giving up the majority of Friday's gains – but has recovered a few hours before the official open for equities. Silver, on the other hand, is extremely weak, off roughly 6.5%. For weeks, silver's advance has outpaced gold, but the white metal may have reached a tipping point. Looking more closely at the area, precious metal mining stocks have topped out and are working through a min-series of lower highs. Silver Wheaton (SLW) looks particularly vulnerable considering the early slide in silver.  Precious Metals - click to enlarge As we approach the open, markets are trading higher. News of Bin Laden's death is helping to fuel positive sentiment and it appears that the bulls will pick up where they left off Friday. We're locked and loaded with a few key positions held through the weekend and plenty of promising setups to track this week. Keep that risk in check and stay alert. Trade 'em well this week, |
| Gold and silver prices higher on inflation worries Posted: 01 May 2011 10:30 PM PDT Roman Baudzus writes -- The gold price continued to rally last week, with the Comex gold contract for May delivery settling at $1,556 on Friday. Gold has risen by 9% in April, with analysts ... |
| With Silver Soaring, Attics Give Up Small Fortunes Posted: 01 May 2011 10:00 PM PDT With Silver Soaring, Attics Give Up Small Fortunes By STEPHANIE CLIFFORD Published: May 1, 2011 Finally, that great-aunt's tarnished tea service can be put to use — no polishing needed. As investors send prices soaring for not only gold, but now also silver, consumers have been unearthing ancient stashes of silverware, teapots and jewelry from long-discarded beaus, and trading them in at pawn shops or selling them on eBay for cash. More and more cash, in fact, as weeks go by. "We're seeing an increase of people coming in from all walks of life because they hear the news — gold prices are at record highs, silver prices are at record highs, so they're basically grabbing what they have in their home and coming in to pawn, or sell, the items," said Yigal Adato, an owner of CashCo Pawn in San Diego. more here: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/bu.../02silver.html |
| Gold price falls on news of bin Laden’s death Posted: 01 May 2011 09:30 PM PDT From the GoldMoney News Desk -- News of Osama bin Laden's death led to a small rally in the US dollar, as traders embraced a rare moment of optimism about America amid the endless talk of the ... |
The major indices pushed through resistance last week, confirming the bullish bias, and giving breakout traders plenty of targets to work with.
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