saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- FED will continue program, good news for precious metals!
- Gold and Silver Bubble? - Some Retail Investors Taking Profits and…
- Ron Wortel: High Gold Prices Raise Old Mines
- Gold Speculation Called "Routine" as Crude Oil Rises
- Gold and Silvers Daily Review for April 26th, 2011
- U.S. Investors Must Take a Global View to Protect Their Wealth!
- South Africa not profiting from gold and commodities boom
- Dollar Crashing To New Lows As Precious Metals Markets “Go Apeshit”
- 11 U.S. States to Adopt Canadian Dollar as Their Official Currency!
- Simple 5 ETF / 10% Retirement Portfolio Drops IVV for OEF in U.S. Equity Hedge
- The Economic Collapse Cycle - Where We Are Now and How to Invest Accordingly
- No Sign of the Top in Silver
- Will governments confiscate gold?
- CME Margin Cold Water for Red Hot Silver
- Why I'm Buying Puts on GLD - And Why You Should Too
- Gold is trivialized because what it exposes is so scary
- Gold Currency: Mandatory Now, For Traders?
- Gold Supply/Demand, Gold Derivatives and Gold Loans
- Stocks, Dollar, and VIX Not Anticipating Negative Reaction to Fed
- Safe Storage for Gold and Precious Metals From an Expert’s point of view
- What Is Outsourcing?
- Dollar Weaker Ahead of FOMC Statement
- Silver Streak
- The End of Abundance
| FED will continue program, good news for precious metals! Posted: 27 Apr 2011 03:47 AM PDT |
| Gold and Silver Bubble? - Some Retail Investors Taking Profits and… Posted: 27 Apr 2011 01:41 AM PDT gold.ie |
| Ron Wortel: High Gold Prices Raise Old Mines Posted: 26 Apr 2011 11:40 PM PDT |
| Gold Speculation Called "Routine" as Crude Oil Rises Posted: 26 Apr 2011 11:36 PM PDT Bullion Vault |
| Gold and Silvers Daily Review for April 26th, 2011 Posted: 26 Apr 2011 11:32 PM PDT Gold Forecaster |
| U.S. Investors Must Take a Global View to Protect Their Wealth! Posted: 26 Apr 2011 08:03 PM PDT Gold Forecaster |
| South Africa not profiting from gold and commodities boom Posted: 26 Apr 2011 08:01 PM PDT Goldmoney |
| Dollar Crashing To New Lows As Precious Metals Markets “Go Apeshit” Posted: 26 Apr 2011 07:59 PM PDT |
| 11 U.S. States to Adopt Canadian Dollar as Their Official Currency! Posted: 26 Apr 2011 07:38 PM PDT In a bid to streamline business and tourist transactions, eleven U.S. states are set to adopt the Canadian dollar as their official currency [effective, July 4th, 2011. Read on for more details.] Words: 556 |
| Simple 5 ETF / 10% Retirement Portfolio Drops IVV for OEF in U.S. Equity Hedge Posted: 26 Apr 2011 07:22 PM PDT Jeff D. Hamann submits: Here are the results of a backward looking portfolio of five funds using the Konno and Yamazaki Mean-Absolute Deviation Portfolio for this week. Using a basic set of statistics, we determine which funds should have been included, and determine the allocations that would have generated a 10% return AND minimize the mean absolute deviation (MAD). We restrict the number of assets to 5 so that the results can be written on the back of business card, sent to someone's hand-held device, or broadcast on twitter (which we do regularly). We assume the investor is at or near retirement and include common constraints like "don't include more than 10% commodities." Given a universe of the following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs):
Complete Story » |
| The Economic Collapse Cycle - Where We Are Now and How to Invest Accordingly Posted: 26 Apr 2011 06:48 PM PDT Galt's Gulch submits: Recently, the hyperinflation-deflation debate has flared up again. What readers need to understand is that this question is really a distracter – the issue is not either/or hyperinflation/deflation – the key issue is where we are in the collapse cycle's chain of events shown below. click to enlarge *One key caveat – this cycle is a general theory – war, economic events, and other factors can impact it significantly. So, where are we today in the cycle? This author believes that we are at the end of the "rising inflation" stage, with the recent announcement that the BRICS are further denominating trade between them in local currencies instead of the USD. Thus, deflationists can be forgiven for believing that we are in the previous stage, as housing prices continue to fall. However, the hyperinflationists remain right - the key point to remember is that deflation LEADS TO hyperinflation. The reason Complete Story » |
| Posted: 26 Apr 2011 06:23 PM PDT Chris Mack submits: Silver is finally getting some attention in the 10th year of its bull market run - mostly top callers who are calling the recent move to nearly $50 an ounce a sign that it has already peaked. Interestingly, these same analysts were nowhere to be found when we made the logical argument that it would reach $50 an ounce this year. Complete Story » |
| Will governments confiscate gold? Posted: 26 Apr 2011 05:45 PM PDT |
| CME Margin Cold Water for Red Hot Silver Posted: 26 Apr 2011 05:42 PM PDT Got Gold Report |
| Why I'm Buying Puts on GLD - And Why You Should Too Posted: 26 Apr 2011 05:32 PM PDT Galt's Gulch submits: A substantial amount of speculation (justified, in this author's opinion) has revolved around the supposed holdings of the GLD and SLV ETFs. The claims are that these vehicles are diversionary tactics by certain bullion banks such as JPM to draw investment dollars flowing to the precious metals sector away from actual metals, and that these ETFs are not fully backed (if backed at all) by actual metals. However, the important point is that it doesn't matter whether they are or not – everyone should buy puts on them. This is a binary solution set: either these ETFs are fully backed or they are not. Case 1: If the ETFs are fully backed by real gold that would imply that there is actually significant bullion above ground – more than most goldbugs believe exist. In that case, goldbugs are in the wrong, and their hopes are being built on a false Complete Story » |
| Gold is trivialized because what it exposes is so scary Posted: 26 Apr 2011 05:00 PM PDT |
| Gold Currency: Mandatory Now, For Traders? Posted: 26 Apr 2011 04:54 PM PDT |
| Gold Supply/Demand, Gold Derivatives and Gold Loans Posted: 26 Apr 2011 04:45 PM PDT |
| Stocks, Dollar, and VIX Not Anticipating Negative Reaction to Fed Posted: 26 Apr 2011 04:45 PM PDT |
| Safe Storage for Gold and Precious Metals From an Expert’s point of view Posted: 26 Apr 2011 04:30 PM PDT |
| Posted: 26 Apr 2011 04:04 PM PDT
But for American workers, a "global marketplace" is really bad news. In the United States, businesses are subject to a vast array of very complex laws, rules and regulations that make it very difficult to operate in this country. That makes it very tempting for corporations to simply move out of the U.S. in order to avoid all of the hassle. In addition, the United States now has the highest corporate tax rate in the entire world. This also provides great motivation for corporations to move operations outside of the country. The biggest thing affecting American workers, however, is the fact that labor has now become a global commodity. U.S. workers have now been merged into a global labor pool. Americans must now directly compete for jobs with hundreds of millions of desperate people willing to work for slave labor wages on the other side of the globe. So exactly how is an American worker supposed to compete with a highly motivated person on the other side of the planet that makes $1.50 an hour with essentially no benefits? Just think about it. If you were a big global corporation, would you want to hire American workers which would cost you 10 or 20 times more after everything is factored in? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why millions of jobs have been leaving the United States. Corporations love to make more money. Many of them will not hesitate for an instant to pay slave labor wages if they can get away with it. The bottom line for most corporations is to maximize shareholder wealth. Slowly but surely the number of good jobs in the United States is shrinking and those jobs are being sent to places where labor is cheaper. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. multinational corporations added 2.4 million new jobs overseas during the first decade of this century. But during that same time frame U.S. multinational corporations cut a total of 2.9 million jobs inside the United States. So where are all of our jobs going? They are going to places like China. The United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs per month since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. In addition, over 40,000 manufacturing facilities in the United States have been closed permanently during the past decade. What do you think is eventually going to happen if the U.S. economy continues to bleed jobs and factories so badly? As the U.S. has faltered, China has become an absolute economic powerhouse. Ten years ago, the U.S. economy was three times as large as the Chinese economy. At the turn of the century the United States accounted for well over 20 percent of global GDP and China accounted for significantly less than 10 percent of global GDP. But since that time our share of global GDP has been steadily declining and China's share has been steadily rising. According to the IMF, China will pass the United States and will become the largest economy in the world in 2016. Should we all celebrate when that happens? Should we all chant "We're Number 2"? Our economy is falling to pieces and the competition for the few remaining good jobs has become super intense. The average American family is having a really tough time right now. Only 45.4% of Americans had a job during 2010. The last time the employment level was that low was back in 1983. Not only that, only 66.8% of American men had a job last year. That was the lowest level that has ever been recorded in all of U.S. history. Just think about that. 33.2% of American men do not have jobs. And that figure is going to continue to rise unless something is done about these economic trends. Today, there are 10% fewer "middle class jobs" in the United States than there were a decade ago. Tens of millions of Americans have been forced to take "whatever they can get". A lot of very hard working people are basically working for peanuts at this point. In fact, half of all American workers now earn $505 or less per week. Things have gotten so bad that tens of thousands of people showed up for the National Hiring Day that McDonald's just held. With the economy such a mess, flipping burgers or welcoming people to Wal-Mart are jobs that suddenly don't look so bad. Right now America is rapidly losing high paying jobs and they are being replaced by low paying jobs. According to a recent report from the National Employment Law Project, higher wage industries accounted for 40 percent of the job losses over the past 12 months but only 14 percent of the job growth. Lower wage industries accounted for just 23 percent of the job losses over the past 12 months and a whopping 49 percent of the job growth. Thanks to the emerging one world economy, the U.S. is "transitioning" from a manufacturing economy to a service economy. But it certainly doesn't help that China is using every trick in the book to steal our industries. China openly subsidizes domestic industries, they brazenly steal technology and they manipulate currency rates. A recent article on Economy In Crisis described how the Chinese paper industry has been able to grow by threefold over the past decade while the U.S. paper industry has fallen apart....
So why should we be concerned about all of this? Well, just open up your eyes. As I have written about previously, our formerly great cities are being transformed into post-apocalyptic hellholes. In a comment to a recent article, Trucker Mark described what he has seen happen to the "rust belt" over the past several decades....
You know what? Detroit and Cleveland used to be two of the greatest cities in the entire world. Today very few people would call them great. They are just shells of their former glory. Sadly, this cruel economy is causing "ghost towns" to appear all across the United States. There are quite a few counties across the nation that now have home vacancy rates of over 50%. Another reader, Flubadub, also remembers how things used to be....
Our jobs are being shipped overseas so that greedy corporate executives can pad their bonuses and our politicians are allowing them to get away with it. According to a new report from the AFL-CIO, the average CEO made 343 times more money than the average American did last year. Life is great if you are a CEO. Life is not so great if you are an average American worker trying to raise a family. Another reader, Itsjustme, says that things are also quite depressing In New Jersey....
As I have written about previously, the standard of living of the middle class is being pushed down to third world levels. We have been merged into a "global labor pool", and what that means is that the standard of living of all workers all over the world is going to be slowly equalized over time. Our politicians never told us that all of these "free trade" agreements would mean that soon we would be living like the rest of the world. America used to be the greatest economic machine on the planet. But now we are just another region of the one world economy that has workers that are too expensive to be useful. In the end, there is not some great mystery as to why we are experiencing economic decline as a nation. If millions of our jobs are being shipped overseas, it was basically inevitable that we were going to experience a housing crisis. Without good jobs the American people simply cannot afford high mortgage payments. Today we consume far more wealth as a nation than we produce. We have tried to make up the difference by indulging in the greatest debt binge that the world has ever seen. We have lived like kings and queens, but our debt-fueled prosperity is not sustainable. In fact, the collapse of our financial system is a lot closer than most people would like to believe. Things did not have to turn out like this, but we bought into the lies and the propaganda that our leaders were feeding us. Now our economy lies in tatters and our children have no economic future. |
| Dollar Weaker Ahead of FOMC Statement Posted: 26 Apr 2011 03:42 PM PDT MarketPulse FX submits: by Scott Boyd The dollar continued its week-long slide against the euro just one day before the next Federal Open Market Committee statement and investors are strongly of the belief that the FOMC will maintain the current low interest rate policy capping the Federal Funds rate at just 0.25 percent. A low interest rate tends to devalue a currency; this is because lower interest rates mean weaker yields for investors. As a result, investors will sell lower-yielding currencies for currencies providing higher returns and this is exactly what has been happening with the dollar. Looking ahead, the dollar sell-off will likely increase as the interest rate gap between the U.S. and other countries continues to widen with rate increases in Australia, Canada, and most recently the Eurozone, taking the shine off the greenback. Geithner Pledges Support for Strong Dollar Regardless of the high probability that the Complete Story » |
| Posted: 26 Apr 2011 03:29 PM PDT
04-26 Tuesday
|
| Posted: 26 Apr 2011 03:26 PM PDT --Welcome back from the long weekend. And oh what a weekend it was. The Aussie dollar continues to power higher, nearing 110 US cents. Silver got on its horse earlier in the week and rode all the way to $49.31-just short of its 1980 high. And then it fell five per cent today. And now we have one of the world's great contrarians telling us that with commodities, this time it's different. --The task of today's Daily Reckoning is to figure out whether demand growth in commodities is responsible for the recent surge in the commodities complex. Or whether it's just a plain old inflationary increase in global money supply. The answer will have a lot to do with the direction Aussie stocks go in. --Right now, though, all roads lead to China, which is why it's fitting that Australia's Prime Minister Julia Gillard is there at the moment. Maybe she can advise the Chinese on whether Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board will knock back Barrick Gold's C$7.3 billion bid for the Perth-based Zambian copper play Equinox. Barrick's recent bid trumps the offer made by Chinese-backed metals trader Minmetals Resources. --You can see why a metals trader would chase a large copper play. But why would a gold company want to become a copper company too? Not being familiar with Barrick's balance sheet, we don't know if the growth in the asset column (at this price) will lower Barrick's return on equity. We'd have to ask Greg Canavan of Sound Money. Sound Investments that question. --But it's obvious both Barrick and China are bullish on copper. Both Barrick and China are therefore bullish on China. Which brings us to Jeremy Grantham! --You may have already heard of Grantham. He's the Chief Investment Strategist at GMO Partners. He's also a bit of a contrarian, and ruffled a few Aussie feathers last year when he said the local housing market was a "time bomb" and predicted the failure of at least one major bank. --Grantham doesn't have a black box. But he does view markets as essentially mean reverting. Things can't stay over- or under-valued forever. He views Aussie house prices as overvalued. But in his April letter, he surprised a lot of people by concluding that commodity prices will go higher. Grantham writes that, "Accelerated demand from developing countries, especially China, has caused an unprecedented shift in the price structure of resources." You can read the whole letter here. --Grantham is basically saying that "This time it's different with commodities". Why? He's claiming that the growth of the developing world is eclipsing the world's ability to provide the raw materials of civilisation at ever cheaper prices. It's no small claim. It reverses about two hundred years of history, as you can see from the chart below. STUFF: Getting cheaper for 200 years and counting
--The chart above is one we began showing over seven years ago. It shows that the primary trend in commodity prices is down and has been for the last 200 years. Anyone who is arguing for a long-term bull market in resource prices has to contradict this chart. And the chart makes sense once you look at the grand sweep of economic history. --As more areas of the world are open to exploration (North America and Australia and New Zealand in the 19th century) commodity producers found more of what they were looking for. There were more places than ever to look for copper, oil, iron ore and places amenable to growing wheat, rice, and corn. What's more, improvements in technology made resource extraction cheaper and more efficient. -- So why is 200 years of proven pricing history in the commodities markets now changing? Grantham says population growth and GDP growth in the developed world is what is "different" this time. He writes that:
--This means you can put Grantham squarely in the "demand growth" camp for explaining rising commodity prices. It is a bit odd that Grantham is citing China's massive, commodity-intensive fixed-asset investment as a source of commodity demand, without connecting China's investment binge to its huge accumulation of U.S. dollars (the whole relationship itself being the major product of the credit bubble). In other words, he doesn't trace China's commodity demand back to its original source: global credit growth. --But as the kids say these days, watevs. If Grantham is right-and our own Dr. Alex Cowie at Diggers and Drillers has also reached this conclusion-then buying scarce resources (especially world-class proven reserves and resources) is the correct investment strategy for a historical tipping point. One caveat; Grantham's bit about population growth implies that scarcity driven by population growth will limit growth, which would presumably also limit price rises in commodities. But watevs. --If you're conducting a thought experiment, you might also conclude that after a big global financial crisis AND a sovereign debt crisis, the world economy has kept on keeping on. It's survived the worst that anyone can throw at it. And as the developing nations continue to surpass the growth in the developed world (deindustrialising Welfare States) you get a formula for commodity demand exceeding supply. It's also a relief to believe that the worst is behind us, even if it's just a feeling. --But we wonder if the structural shift in commodity prices also has anything to do with what Bill points out below, namely money supply growth. The U.S. Federal Reserve has tripled its holdings of public and private debt since the quantitative easing programs began. It's taken $2 trillion in brand new dollars to make that happen. Do you think that-coupled with stimulus in China and Europe-could have anything to do with soaring commodity prices? --Well, probably. Or...yes! -- But you could also be watching a version of Gresham's Law playing out, where investors began to hoard commodity-related investments and sell everything else. Gresham's Law is roughly that bad money tends to drive out good money for economic transactions. People hold on to what's valuable (gold) and spend what loses value (paper money). How does that apply to today? --For the last 30 years, the great credit bubble has resulted in massive asset inflation; stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, art, pinball machines, and baseball cards. Portfolios the world over have been loaded up with debt-backed securities or companies whose growth depends on the growth in credit; and that is being generous with the "asset" designation. --Now portfolio managers are eager to unload the debt and own real stuff, or at least stop accumulating the bad stuff. So what is the good stuff today? To be continued... Dan Denning |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Gold World News Flash 2 To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |





Mercenary Links Roundup for Tuesday, April 26th (below the jump).

No comments:
Post a Comment