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Saturday, April 9, 2011

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What Does the Future Hold for the Dow:Gold Ratio?

Posted: 09 Apr 2011 07:11 AM PDT

The Dow:Gold ratio is defined as the ratio of the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average divided by the price of gold [or] how many ounces of gold it takes to buy the 30-stock Dow. The current Dow:Gold ratio of 8.5 is up 21.1% from its 17-year March 6, 2009 low of 7.0 and 81% below its 1999 peak of 44.77. [What does the future hold? Higher gold prices, lower stock prices or vice versa?] Words: 400

How the U.S. Dollar's Weakness Adds to Inflation Threat

Posted: 09 Apr 2011 07:10 AM PDT

The U.S. dollar is essentially at an all-time low against other currencies on both a real and nominal basis [and such a] weak dollar is a serious problem, but there is no reason yet to abandon all hope... [Let me explain.] Words: 1064

Comex is broke, you have to be a fuckin idiot not to see this

Posted: 09 Apr 2011 05:35 AM PDT

CRIMEX NEWS: Gold: -OI rising on both delivery and next month -Volume was 115,861, and we went up again, HOW ABOUT THAT! SHOCKING. -and for the like 8th day in a row, ZERO deposits and 129 oz of withdrawals, gets better daily here! Guys, if you haven't figured it out yet...regardless of what anyone tells you, the comex has already defaulted. Its hush hush. You heard it here first. Silver:

Utah Gold Standard, Part II

Posted: 09 Apr 2011 04:44 AM PDT

How the Gold Standard kept prices stable...

read more

Does Your PM Purchase Have A Story Behind It? Metal History Thread

Posted: 09 Apr 2011 01:41 AM PDT

I thought it might be fun to start a thread to share stories of the "lineage" of your PM purchases.

I've been having some success picking up 90% off Craigslist, (though keeping unflagged by competetors is a chore).

Yesterday I got an email from a guy saying he had about $50. face to sell. Would I be interested & how much would I pay?

We agree on price, & "Earnie" & I meet at the local Burger King.
While making dollar stacks of the 244 dimes I ask "So, how long have you had all these coins?"

Earnie relates:
"Ya see, I've worked at my family's beer distributer on the cash register since I was a kid. And whenever an old silver coin would come in, I'd pull it out & save it."

"There was one customer, a little old lady, that used to come in & buy lottery tickets once a week, & she always paid with rolls of coins.
So after a time I asks her "what's up with that?"

She tells Earnie that her dad had always saved his change in big jars & cans & never spent it, & when he died she inherited it, & rather than take it to the bank, she just rolled it up & brought it into the store to buy her weekly lottery tickets.

Earnie noticed that a lot of her coins were silver, so he always broke open her rolls & pulled the 90%, rather than use them as store change or deposit them at the bank.

Earnie says, "That little old lady must of came in every week for 4 years with coins rolled up to buy her lotto!. I've been savin em just cause I knew they were old, but to be honest with you, I really need the money, & I heard that silver was up, so I figured I should sell."

Afterwards as I was leaving, I saw Earnie (who really needed money) load up on some burgers & fries before heading out.

In the photo you can see the one Roosevelt dime that is painted red.
Can you remember when jukeboxes would play for a dime? Waitresses would paint their coins with fingernail polish & feed the juke whenever it got quiet in the diner to "remind" customers to toss some of their money in there as well. The girls would get their painted money back when the machine was emptied.

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Breakouts in Gold and Silver Prices

Posted: 09 Apr 2011 01:00 AM PDT


ONLY 95 MORE DOLLARS.

Posted: 09 Apr 2011 12:07 AM PDT

And will have the same purchasing power as 1980. Is it time to sell now? you maybe sorry.

Gold and global currency

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 11:44 PM PDT

typetext

Join GATA for Gold Rush 2011 in London in August

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 11:43 PM PDT

Well, it's now official...our London conference at the famous Savoy Hotel on the Thames River is now cast in stone...and the list of speakers is impressive.  Chris Powell outlines the whole thing in this GATA release, which is a must read...and the link is here.

The Bank Runs Of The Early 1930s And FDR’s Ban On Gold

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 11:43 PM PDT

Here's an op-ed piece that appeared in Forbes earlier this week that I thank Roy Stephens for sending along.

The gold price reached a record of $1464/ounce this week, fittingly on the 78th year anniversary of FDR's ban on private gold ownership in 1933. Gold has increased by 30% over the past year, 145% in the past five years and 465% in the past decade; by contrast, the S&P 500 today is only 12% higher vs. a decade ago.

This is a longish read...but well worth your time if you don't know the history of FDR's gold confiscation of 1933.  The link is here.

Two Johns Get Interviewed at King World News

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 11:43 PM PDT

Earlier this week I posted two KWN blogs...one with John Embry and the other with John Hathaway.  Here are the two audio interviews that these blogs came from.  The link to John Embry's interview is here...and John Hathaway's is here.  Both are must listens...and they both agree that this breakout in both gold and silver is the real deal.  So do I.

Interest rate differentials, deficit, to destroy dollar, Turk tells KWN

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 11:43 PM PDT

GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk told King World News that interest rate differentials and the U.S. government's ever-growing deficit are starting to destroy the dollar. An excerpt from the interview is headlined "Twin Dollar Destroyers to Create Earthshaking Collapse"...and the link to this must read KWN blog is here.

Gold Is Still Cheap Despite Record Surge: Marc Faber

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 11:43 PM PDT

Here's a CNBC story that ended up as a GATA dispatch yesterday, but the first person through the door with it was Russian reader Alex Lvov. 

The Federal Reserve's money-printing policies continue to make gold an attractive investment even though it has hit a succession of new highs recently, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom Boom & Doom report, told CNBC.  "If it were a bubble a lot of people would have gold. The whole world would be trading gold 24 hours a day," he said. "But I don't think it's really a bubble. I think gold is maybe cheaper today than it was in 1999, when it was $252."

The story is definitely worth the read...and the link is here.

Silver blasts off rising to $40.60. Continues in access market to $40.93

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 10:37 PM PDT

M3 Inflation and the Gold Price

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 06:40 PM PDT

Very interesting article showing a good correlation between the author's M3 Inflation figure and the gold price. His M3 Inflation is M3 growth minus 90 day bank bill rate. It seems the gold price lags the M3 Inflation figure by a few years, making it a potential macro gold price forecasting tool.

Shut It Down?

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 01:26 PM PDT

If the U.S. government were to shut down for a while, would that really be such a bad thing?  Right now everyone in the mainstream media is freaking out as if the world is going to end, but the truth is that there have been government shutdowns before.  The apocalypse is not going to happen if there is another shutdown.  If Congress could find a way to get our troops and our border patrol agents paid, then what would be so bad about the government taking a "vacation" for a while?  After all, when was the last time that either the Republicans or the Democrats did anything that was actually good for America?  It has not mattered which political party has been in power - over the past couple of decades our "representatives" in Washington D.C. have passed an endless parade of bad laws and have gotten us into the biggest mountain of debt in the history of the world.  They literally seem unable to do anything right.  So would it really be so bad if a government shutdown slows them down for a while?  If our politicians are going to act like a bunch of idiots, why not let them shut it down?

Think of it this way - if you could eliminate all of the laws passed under George W. Bush and Barack Obama would you do it?

I think that most Americans would.

Almost every single law that has been passed over the past couple of decades has been bad for America.

But many Americans seem to be going into a panic at the thought that the "almighty government" might not be operating for a few days.

Many Americans seem to have bought into the lie that the federal government is the most important institution in our country.

But this is never what our founding fathers intended.  Our founding fathers intended for the federal government to be very limited.  Unfortunately, we have turned our backs on the principles of our founding fathers.

So exactly what is this fight between the Republicans and the Democrats all about?  Why have we been brought to the brink of a government shutdown?

We keep hearing that it is all about cutting the budget.  In fact, House Speaker John Boehner says that his party is "damn serious about it".

But that is a joke.  The federal budget deficit for this year is going to be approximately $1.6 trillion dollars.  The Republicans were asking for just $61 billion in budget cuts (3.8% of the budget deficit) and there are rumors that Republican and Democratic negotiators have agreed to a figure of $38 billion in budget cuts.

$38 billion?

Is this why the Tea Party was sent to Washington?

$38 billion would just be 2.4 percent of the $1.6 trillion dollar deficit.

Wow, that is really wielding the budget cutting axe!

Look, the U.S. government cannot spend a single penny from now on without Republicans going along with it.

The Republicans control the House of Representatives.  Barack Obama and the Senate will not have a single dime to spend unless they can get the House to go along with it.

If the Democrats want money to implement Obamacare then they have to get the Republicans to go along with it.

If the Democrats want to give money to the EPA to implement Obama's "green agenda" then they have to get the Republicans to go along with it.

In fact, pretty much whatever the Democrats want to do, they have to get the Republicans to agree to fund it.

So if you don't like what Obama and the Democrats are doing, don't just blame them.

Blame the Republicans as well.

Both parties are deeply corrupt and both parties have gotten us to the point we are at.

Sadly, it looks like any deal that the Republicans and the Democrats are going to agree to is going to include virtually everything that the Democrats want.

It is going to include full funding for Obamacare.

It is going to include full funding for Planned Parenthood.

It is going to include full funding for NPR.

It is going to include full funding for the EPA.

So what are the Republicans going to get?

$38 billion in spending cuts?

Is that supposed to be a "deal"?

The truth is that Boehner is a joke and he is not serious about cutting the federal budget.

But if we don't start seriously cutting the federal budget we are heading for complete and total disaster.

David Stockman, who served as budget director under Ronald Reagan, says that if Congress is not serious about getting our financial house in order that a government shutdown could be precisely the kind of wake up call that we need....

If the Smithsonian, the Parks Service and the Cherry Blossom Festival get delayed or canceled, it's the wakeup call that we really needed. The fools inside the Beltway are borrowing $100 billion month in and month out, and there's nobody left in the world buying except the central banks—the Fed and the people's printing press of China. There's no way that's sustainable or viable. It's simply building up pressure in the monetary system that's going to blow sky-high.

Look, the United States is heading straight for financial armageddon.  This is a crisis of historic proportions.  In a previous article on U.S. government finances, I detailed some absolutely horrifying statistics about the debt crisis that the U.S. government is facing....

*If you divide the national debt up equally among all U.S. households, each one owes a staggering $125,475.18.

*The federal government has borrowed 29,660 more dollars per household since Barack Obama signed the economic stimulus law two years ago.

*During Barack Obama's first two years in office, the U.S. government added more to the U.S. national debt than the first 100 U.S. Congresses combined.

*In the new budget that the Obama administration has proposed, the U.S. government would spend 3.7 trillion dollars in 2012 and by 2021 the U.S. government would be spending a whopping 5.6 trillion dollars per year.

*The U.S. government currently has to borrow approximately 41 cents of every single dollar that it spends.

*The total compensation that the federal government workforce earned last year came to a grand total of approximately 447 billion dollars.

*The U.S. national debt is currently rising by well over 4 billion dollars every single day.

*The U.S. government is borrowing over 2 million more dollars every single minute.

*The U.S. national debt is over 14 times larger than it was just 30 years ago.

*Unfunded liabilities for entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare are estimated to be well over $100 trillion, and nobody in the U.S. government seems to have any idea how we are actually even going to come close to meeting all of those obligations.

*If you were alive when Jesus was born and you spent one million dollars every single day since that point, you still would not have spent one trillion dollars by now.  But this year alone the U.S. government is going to go about 1.6 trillion dollars more into debt.

*If the federal government began right at this moment to repay the U.S. national debt at a rate of one dollar per second, it would take over 440,000 years to pay off the national debt.

But even if the Republicans got every single thing that they have been demanding it would make essentially no difference as far as our national debt crisis is concerned.  It would basically be like spitting into Niagara Falls.

So which political party has the correct position in this battle?

Neither of them.  In fact, both political parties are a joke.  They are both acting like a bunch of idiots just like they have been for decades.

So let them shut it down.  The truth is that the number one threat to our liberties and freedoms right now is our own federal government.

In a recent article, J.B. Williams talked about why he thinks that it would be a really good idea to shut the government down....

I say, shut it down! The federal government has done as much to harm the union of states as it has ever done to improve freedom and liberty in America. We will be better off without a federal government, with each state able to fund and govern itself better than the Fed ever could.

Extreme threats demand extreme measures, and nothing threatens the future freedom and prosperity of the United States more than our own federal government. Enemies beyond, we can deal with. It's the enemy within which threatens us most today. It's time to shut it down and reset.

Just think about a few of the ways that our own federal government violates our liberties and freedoms every single day....

*If you want to get on an airplane in America today, you must either go through one of the incredibly intrusive full body scanners that are going into all U.S. airports and let airport security goons gawk at your exposed body, or you must allow airport security goons to feel you up using the new "enhanced pat down" techniques they are being instructed to employ.

*Thanks to the Patriot Act, if you are identified as a "terrorist", you suddenly lose all of your constitutional rights.  We are told that detaining American citizens indefinitely and subjecting them to "enhanced interrogation" techniques will keep us all safer.

*The federal government controls our lives so tightly that now they even tell us what kinds of light bulbs we are allowed to buy.

*Barack Obama has been pushing a plan that would create a national database that will store the DNA of all individuals who have been arrested, even if they end up not being convicted of a crime.

*Just about anything can be used against you in court these days.  In one of the very first military commissions held under the Obama administration, a U.S. military judge ruled that confessions obtained by threatening the subject with rape are admissible in court.

*The federal government listens to our cell phones whenever they want and they require that all cell phone companies must be able to pinpoint the locations of all of their customers to within 100 meters.

*According to FBI Director Robert Mueller, "homegrown terrorists" represent just as much of a threat to American national security as al-Qaeda does.

*In Washington D.C., if you do not submit to "random bag checks" while riding the Metro there is a good chance that you could receive a follow-up visit by the FBI or by the Department of Homeland Security.

*If you make food "incorrectly" there is a good chance that you will get raided by the federal government.  In fact, the feds raided an Amish farmer at 5 AM in the morning because they claimed that he was was engaged in the interstate sale of raw milk in violation of federal law.

So in light of how extreme our federal government has become, is there anyone out there that still thinks it would be a "crisis" if the government was to shut down for a while?

If our government is going to take away our liberties and freedoms instead of protecting them, then why would it be a bad thing if it shut down for a short time?

It might just get some of the control freaks off our backs for a while.

Yes, we do need to make sure our military men and women are paid.  We also need to make sure that our border patrol agents are paid.  But if Congress could actually get that accomplished it wouldn't be too bad at all if the government were to shut down for an extended period of time.

So what do all the rest of you think?  Feel free to leave a comment with your opinion about the possibility of a government shutdown below....

Will Silver become money like Gold again?

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 12:00 PM PDT

We have always referred to silver as the 'long shadow' of gold because its price moves with gold's. When the gold price rises, silver rises more. When the gold price falls, silver falls further, but they move in sync. Why?

David Freedom – The Next Global War

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 11:16 AM PDT

The Truth Behind the Next Global War
The economic collapse is rapidly moving the world closer to a major global war. Similar to the financial wars, the upcoming military wars have long ago been planned and it is your duty to know where you are being led before you agree to follow.

To understand the truth behind the push for war, we must first accept nothing happens by chance.

"Nothing happens by chance, my friend… No such thing as luck. A meaning behind every little thing, and such a meaning behind this. Part for you, part for me, may not see it all real clear right now, but we will, before long"
Richard Bach
Jonathan Livingston Seagull, Illusions: The Adventures of a Reluctant Messiah

My intention is to expose the manipulation behind the upcoming wars as briefly as possible. When the masses understand the agenda, the conspiracy will no longer exist. At the heart of manipulation is deceit, essential to its success.

The Motives: Order from Chaos
Adam Weishaupt (noted founder of the Illuminati) is credited with teaching five cycles of human history: (1) Chaos, the starting point; (2) Discord, the emergence of a ruling class; (3) Confusion, an attempt to restore a balance; (4) Bureaucracy; and (5) Aftermath, where society implodes and reverts to chaos. This is also exemplified through the Masonic motto: Ordo Ab Chao (Order out of Chaos). Only through chaos can the New World Order be established.

You are witnessing the death of the American empire and the birth of the New World Order. Amongst others, the following agendas are in play: The destruction of the middle class, population reduction (unfortunate truth) and elimination of faith in God. Each of the above-mentioned items presents a risk to the emergence of a "divine" ruling class. In the not too distant future, public consumption of resources will not only be expensive, they'll be completely regulated. If their agenda is allowed to succeed, the enslaved population will be maintained at a "manageable" level just high enough to serve their rulers.

Danger to Israel
Balfour Declaration, November 1917
Dear Lord Rothschild,
"His Majesty's Government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavours to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine…."
Yours sincerely,

Arthur James Balfour

Since the Balfour Declaration in 1917, the Rothschild family has played a critical role in the establishment and ongoing policies of the national home for the Jewish people. After the UN Partition Plan in 1948, Israel proclaimed itself and independent state.

The controlling power behind Israel are Khazars by origin and do not share the Jewish (or Christian) faith and are now planning to put the Jewish nation in harms way. These same powers control the US and UK.

"I know thy works, and tribulation and poverty, (but thou art rich) and I know the blasphemy of them which say they areJews, and are not, but are the synagogue of Satan." The Book of Revelation, Chapter 2, Verse 9

Just as they are sacrificing their own institutions (e.g., national Central Banks) to achieve a new monetary order, they are going to use Israel to incite religious fervor and unthinkable upheaval around the globe. At the same time they are manipulating Shi'a-Sunni relations as a divide and conquer tactic. This is a difficult concept to grasp, but I'm hoping that by seeing the long-term goals, you'll be able to understand the individual moves. Interests connected to Rothschild family (e.g., George Soros) are now funding groups openly opposed to Israel and the US. These groups include Al Qaeda, now being supported and supplied by Rothschild interests across the Middle East and Africa. Even to the casual observer, this must raise questions.

Manipulation of Religion
Have you noticed an eerie resemblance of current events to those described in Biblical prophecies? Groups like those funded by Harold Camping are prophesying an imminent return of Jesus Christ, as described in the book of Revelations. Likewise, within the Shiite (predominately Iran), it is prophesied the 12th Imam is coming soon. According to Orthodox Jewish belief, the Messiah is to arrive between 2010 and 2240.

Congruent with the world's religious prophecy for Judgment Day, the Mayan "Long Count" calendar marks the end of a 5,126 year era on Dec. 21, 2012. Related to all of these prophecies is the undisputable evidence that our world is undergoing tremendous change.

Are these external forces, at least in part, driving financial and political upheaval? The answer to this question is a resounding "yes". But we must take this one step further. The power elite, or MMBE as I've called them, do not share the beliefs of the world's religions. In fact, they believe they are gods themselves, capable of harnessing the forces of nature for self-serving purposes – I'm talking about the highest levels here.

"I fancied myself as some kind of god …"
"If truth be known, I carried some rather potent messianic fantasies with me from childhood, which I felt I had to control, otherwise they might get me in trouble."
"It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out."

George Soros

Historically, much of their success has come from manipulation and deceit. This is their religion. If you understand this fact, you can make the jump to seeing our time in history presents an opportunity. It's also understood within their circles that real changes are occurring that threaten their social order. They must actively guide these changes in order to achieve their desired results. It's analogous to going "all-in" on the river in a game of Texas Hold 'Em.

As this unfolds, many will merely be actors in a play. From heads-of-state, down to Egyptian farmers, they are playing a role scripted by the interests of a few. We must write the script for ourselves and our children. Do not participate in any (ethnic, religious, resource, etc.) war against the meek. Opting-out of the war racket is paramount. I am compelled to take accountability and ownership for my actions and fellow man. I will not impose my religious-will on others. As stewards of truth, we must become educated and engaged to protect the liberties that are God's will.

"The people cannot be all, and always, well informed. The part which is wrong will be discontented, in proportion to the importance of the facts they misconceive. If they remain quiet under such misconceptions, it is lethargy, the forerunner of death to the public liberty…"
Thomas Jefferson

For longer than we can imagine, the power interests have been planning for this time in history. They have faith in esotericdoctrines and secret technology. These are the tools of the MMBE. Many false prophets will appear in the not too distant future. Some of which will be deceptions of hidden technology. Do not be fooled. Remain steadfast in faith and morality; it's what separates us from them, man from beast.

Are today's events the days foretold in prophecy? I cannot speak to the timing of Judgment Day, for only the Father knows, however, I am confident it's God's will that we actively pursue and promote liberty for all, up until our last days. Just as Noah worked day after day building a boat, we must actively prepare. Noah did not expect God to build his boat; he was given the knowledge of truth and worked to fulfill God's will.

~David Freedom
david@thevictoryreport.org

Michael Victory – The answer is Gold.

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 11:15 AM PDT

How do you crack a currency calamity?

The Corrections
Society is bursting with inefficiencies that should have been rooted out by recessions long ago. Today big government and big business share the same bed and insatiable addiction to money printing. It must be cured if we are to move into any genuine period of prosperity.

Safe and Sound
The world needs a financial system that preserves confidence again. Small business owners deserve e a stable currency to accurately plan for the future. Instead in its place, a relentless flood of paper money offers no reliable medium of exchange. There is little security in dollars to preserve purchasing power or store value. The lack of currency confidence worldwide is increasing at an unsettling rate. Eventually the same politicians that bought elections and reelections with promises and easy money will admit paper money is not working as the basic component of the monetary system. Citizens will seek an alternative currency and many are already turning to gold. Gold, through the centuries has proven to be unmatched as a standard of measurement, a medium of exchange, and store of value. The more distressed conditions become, the more of people's money governments will try and get their hands on. The rate at which money seeks gold as a less detectable form of capital preservation will continue to mount.

The Adversary
Our generation will finally begin to understand inflation is the enemy, a slayer of freedom and culture. It has a long history of taking away from former nations in prior inflationary progressions. A collapse and depression is likely inevitable in order to reset the system and clear the economic vices from the past. When mutual funds collapse small investor's anger will fuel the masses. Even though failures in the banking and insurance industries are evident citizens are still unprepared. A massive reshuffling of fortunes is approaching. As the currency continues to break down, the number of people who decide to take delivery of commodities futures will escalate. Gold and silver will rise above the burn and monetary skeletons of the Keynesian romantics.

The Flood
The advances from investing in gold are representative of a hedge against inflation and deflation. The ultimate goal of owning will be to have trading power at the end of the currency calamity. Until a return to gold, fiat currency will be in crisis. The people with a board to surf the next wave will be those who survive the coming economic tsunami. As we have seen, stock prices can rise but the main trend of the stock market measured in gold will be down. A significantly higher price for gold will be the solution to wash out the sea of paper money.

The King
There will be a homecoming to a currency connected to gold. The visiting paper tigers go home loser and take rightful place and just value of zero. The world will realize the need to turn the clock back to what made it great. All things paper are flagging measured against gold. The shaky foundation is crumbling, and those that relied on paper, like pension funds are in sad shape. Assets like stocks and land continue to tumble when priced in gold. As more pieces of paper money are needed to buy each ounce of gold, its price increases. In the 1980 gold bull market the price of gold rose dramatically from around $35 to $850. This gold bull market will go much higher, and $1,475 an ounce will have seemed a bargain. Targets between $3,000 and $5,000 could even prove to be too low, believe it or not.

~MV

The Outlook Is Too Bad To Be bad

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 10:47 AM PDT

There has been a constant stream of bad news over the past few months. You'd think the financial markets would have taken a beating. But no moves emerged. It's been smooth sailing. And strange, to say the least.

When you consider how bad things really are, the headlines seem boring. A possible shutdown of the US government over budget disagreements is pathetic compared to the complete fiscal crisis it faces, which is now within 'spitting distance'. How far you have to spit isn't clear.

Chinese lending-rate increases are paltry when you look into how much real estate in China is uninhabited. Even without a price crash, the growth can't continue indefinitely. But it continues, for now.

And Portugal's request for a bailout is petty cash for those waiting for Spain to fall. Each time a nation collapses, banks and the EU quiver. The EU is listing. But will it sink?

Few look behind the headlines. So the world muddles on. For now.

How will it end?

If you know it will end badly, do you really have to know how? Shorting everything probably isn't a great way to put your money where your mind is.

That's why part of a healthy contrarian attitude is believing there are bull markets out there somewhere. Dan made predictions on what some of them might be in his best-selling book The Bull Hunter, of which there are a lot of copies floating around the office.

But where should you look now? It seems everything is too intertwined. What can an investor invest in without getting caught up in broader market turmoil? Perhaps a better way of putting it is 'where can an investor hide their assets?'

One strategy is to chase high-risk big winners with small allocations of capital over a short timeframe. Our very own Kris Sayce does this at the Australian Smallcap Investigator, where he picks stocks he believes will jump in three-digit increments. It's lots of fun, but high risk.

Burying precious metals in your garden is the polar-opposite strategy. It's proved no less successful though - on a risk-adjusted basis.

So perhaps a combination of the two is in order. The low risk and the high risk. Avoiding the in-between is the point we're trying to make. It's the establishment that will get hurt when the structural issues of the financial system begin to take hold. Holding vast portfolios of diversified stocks is asking for trouble. There are too many people willing to sell and not enough left to buy. It's the same for bonds.

The baby-boomers' boom has run its course. They invested in assets that will have to be sold en masse for retirement. And they indebted future taxpayers who are supposed to provide the buying support for those assets.

So even the best investors could get burnt if they find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time. Capital and Crisis editor Chris Mayer elaborates on how:

Dear Capital & Crisis Reader,

Let me tell you the story of Timothy Bancroft. It's a good one, and if you haven't heard it, I think you'll like it.

Bancroft was a smart and shrewd investor. He dodged the Panic of 1857, which he said was due to "easy money policies" and "overconfident speculation in the railroads and farmlands of the Western states."

Instead, Bancroft said you should "buy good securities, put them away and forget them." He thought the best investments were those "dealing in essential commodities that the Union and the world will always need in great quantities."

When Bancroft died, he left an estate of $1.3 million. As Adam Smith (George Goodman) points out in his The Money Game -- from which this tale comes -- "If you remember that those are untaxed mid-19th-century dollars, and that a full eight-course meal at Delmonico's cost less than a dollar at the time, that is quite a fortune."

What did Bancroft own? He owned good stuff from the earth. He owned Southern Zinc and Gold Belt Mining. Hard assets. (Although he did own a couple of questionable things that, I am sure, seemed like good ideas at the time, like American Alarm Clock.)

Sounds smart, right?

It wasn't. And here is where Bancroft erred.

He made it so his heirs couldn't touch that portfolio for a time, because he wanted them to hold onto these investments. By the time they could access the estate, it was worthless. Zero. Zip. Nada.

Bancroft's tale reminds us that nothing is a good idea all the time.

As a Daily Reckoning reader, you know what time it is - time up. Be the first to cash out and recognise the game is up. Don't commit to long-term mainstream investments. Don't get caught in the crowd and stuck in the middle. Look where others haven't been looking.

Will the Fed raise rates?

Reuters ran an article on why the Fed won't raise rates: 'Seven reasons why the Fed won't follow the ECB', it's called. Some of the reasons are absolutely hilarious:

  1. There is no party to take away the punchbowl from

    With corporate profits soaring and at remarkable heights, for some industries anyway, there is certainly a party to ruin. Banks have been borrowing for negative real rates, meaning they can't help but make money. The Fed could start there.

  2. 'The Fed's inflation-fighting credibility is considered iron-clad'

    This is enough to make you fall of your chair. If inflation rose to the point that it required higher rates to reign it in, the interest bill on the US government's debt would swallow its revenues whole. The genie cannot be let out of the bottle... but it already has. Meaningful rate rises are out of the question.

  3. 'The ECB has a single mandate to fight inflation. The Fed has two goals, price stability and full employment.'

    Employment isn't terribly great if you can't buy anything with your income. And with huge unemployment, wages won't be going anywhere fast. But all that QE money has to go somewhere, so prices will rise.

  4. 'ECB officials focus on headline inflation, which covers all prices. U.S. officials focus on underlying "core" inflation, which strips out volatile goods like gasoline and food.'
    Oil and food happen to be great places to park your borrowed money if you are a banker. With lending from the Fed at 0.25% interest p.a. and inflation at 1.6%, according to the lowest measure, you have quite a margin. That's the irony in blaming speculators for higher prices. The speculators are being funded by the very people doing the blaming! As always, it's worth pointing out that Americans spend a lot on food and gasoline, so excluding them is just ridiculous in the first place.

    Many believe QE3 is already factored into the market. Those that disagree probably don't doubt the Fed will come to the rescue with QE3 if needed. But what if inflation picks up too much and the Fed is forced to raise rates?

    This is where the inflationists have two aces up their collective sleeve. Firstly, it would be quite unlikely for the Fed to raise rates faster than inflation accelerates. If it does so any slower, it would still be stimulating the economy and not slowing it. Real rates would still be falling. (That's why the rate rises leading up to 2007 didn't slow the bubble.) So even rate increases probably won't be real rate increases.

    Secondly, higher rates put the squeeze on government budgets, as mentioned above. This is something Bernanke won't do to his employer. Certainly not at rates that turn real interest rates higher.

    So for every downturn there is a QE. And for every price increase there won't be a true tightening. Inflation it is.

Nick Hubble
For Daily Reckoning Australia

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Friday ETF Roundup: IYT Sinks on Oil's Surge, DBC Gains on Dollar Weakness

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 09:56 AM PDT

ETF Database submits:

Thanks to high oil prices and fears over a government shutdown, investors sold off U.S. equities across the board to close out the week. The Dow finished down by 0.2% while the broader indexes posted more significant losses of 0.6% for the Nasdaq and 0.4% for the S&P 500. Commodity markets, on the other hand, continued their recent surge thanks to a weak dollar which was likely caused by investor worries over a prolonged government shutdown. Gold finished at yet another record, gaining $17/oz., while silver finished the day above the $40 level - a multi-decade record for the commodity. This surge in commodities came after traders fled the U.S. dollar in droves ahead of the possible federal government shutdown at midnight tonight. T-Bills fell across the board while the greenback lost more than one cent against the euro in Friday trading as traders continued to jump to precious metals


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Stopping Inflation, the Federal Reserve Way

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 09:00 AM PDT

I was explaining to my boss that firing me would not solve the company's problems, as the corporate rot goes a lot farther than that, mostly due to the stupid Human Resources department hiring so many morons, a dismal fact I have proved over the years by merely asking each one, in turn, "Do you own any gold and silver to protect yourself from the horrendous inflation in prices that is guaranteed by the evil Federal Reserve creating so impossibly much money, and which will destroy the currency, the economy, and everyone who is not an owner of the aforesaid precious metals, to wit, gold and silver, or are you some kind of moron?"

The data shows that they are all morons, and their stupid responses fell into one of three groups.

Either they ignored me completely, replied with something rude and/or threatening, or admitted that they have not been buying gold and silver.

Of course, being the nice guy that I am, always ready to help a friend or a neighbor in need, I generously informed them that they were stupid for not buying gold and silver in response to the Fed creating so much excess money, and that they were in desperate need of some smarts.

I summed it up for my boss as, "The point is that you can't help but notice that none of my fellow employees – none! – bought gold and silver, even though the economic circumstances scream the necessity of doing so, the entire economic history of the last 4,500 years screams the necessity of doing so, and together they are almost as loud as MY screaming of the necessity of doing so!"

Thus, smugly self-assured, I sat down, thinking my argument was thus made: My failures are not my fault, but are the result of morons infesting the company, whose incompetence is ruining everything.

She sighed, and then looked at me with that stupid, bored look on her face, and said, in a deadpan monotone, "That is astounding."

"Well," I replied, "I think it is astounding that Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and his fellow-traveler, neo-Keynesian, econometric morons believe that there is no inflation in prices, despite food and energy increasing by double-digit rates, among a lot of other things rising in price, and all over the world, too!"

Inspired, I found myself going on, "I particularly like the way the Federal Reserve halfwits puff themselves up and solemnly state if there were any inflation in prices, they could immediately stop it by raising interest rates by, probably, a tiny fraction of a percent. For a week or two. Tops! Hahaha!"

She abruptly held up her hand, stopping my interesting dissertation in its tracks, whereupon she asked, "What in the hell does Federal Reserve monetary policy have to do with your laziness and seemingly complete disinterest for the few, mere basics of your own job, to the detriment of the company?"

Naturally, I explained, "Because the other employees are crazy! They even have an office pool about which mental illness I have! Me! The only guy who knows that the over-creation of excess fiat money will lead to ruination and hyperinflation, as it has always done for the last 4,500 years, and yet these idiots think that this time – for the first time in history! – it will not end in utter disaster and that they have no need of buying gold and silver! Like I said, morons!

"And yet they think that I am the crazy one! Me? Have you ever heard of anything so stupid? Hahaha!"

For one thing, you gotta laugh at any lowlife losers who seem oblivious to the ugly fact that fiat money is created when somebody borrows it from a bank, which literally creates the money on the spot, increasing the money supply, which means that all debt-money is ultimately owed to a bank – plus interest! – by debtors.

The ugly mathematics is that more money is always owed than was borrowed/created from the get-go, so that any slight shrinkage in the already-deficient money supply means that there is now even less money to pay back all of the debts.

Then, usually after trying desperately to keep afloat, people start realizing, "It ain't coming back! I'll never breakeven! To hell with this!" and they stop paying a debt, and thus the money literally goes out of existence – poof! – disappearing into that huge Vault In The Sky (VITS), worsening the original "not enough money to pay all the debts" problem, making more debts go bad and extinguishing more money, all whirling around and around, a murderous feedback loop in a whirlwind of falling money supply, reduced tax revenues, bankruptcies, layoffs, deficit-spending, misery and suffering everywhere you look.

But the Federal Reserve believes, apparently for no particular reason, that a little gentle tightening of interest rates will mitigate all that! Hahahaha!

On the other hand, if you want to see how, in real life, demand trumps interest rate increases, a Bloomberg article had a sentence that sums it up perfectly. It reads, "China's manufacturing growth is accelerating, according to preliminary data from a survey of purchasing managers, signaling the economy may withstand increased interest rates."

And as long as company gross profits rise along with interest rates until marginal revenue equals marginal cost, then banks can raise interest rates all they want to no avail! Hahaha!

And with that kind of vig on money made possible by such voracious demand, prices will easily increase, which means that the only smart thing to do is to buy gold and silver.

And not only is it the smart thing to do, but it is the easy thing, too! Merely say, "Here's my money, give me my magical metal!" which is such a simplicity that oft is heard the phrase, "Whee! This investing stuff is easy!"

The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning

Stopping Inflation, the Federal Reserve Way originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning recently featured articles on stagflation, best libertarian books, and QE2 .

Book Review: 'The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble'

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 07:58 AM PDT

Ted Stamas submits:

Investing maven and market tactician Russ Koesterich recently came out with The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble published by McGraw Hill. I've seen Mr. Koesterich numerous times in guest spots on CNBC because of his position as the Global Chief Investment Strategist for iShares and he gets the job done with his first book. He knows where all the bodies are buried on Wall Street and shares his insight on where he believes the market is going the next decade and how to play it. Although there are a lot of statistics in this book, you don't get bogged down with information overkill while reading it, which contributes to a very enjoyable piece of work.

The first three chapters of The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble are dedicated to the debt the United States has accrued: "Even at the peak of the budget crisis in 1985, deficits were approximately 6 percent of


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The World’s 10 Most Prolific Gold Fields

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 07:37 AM PDT

Gold has long been one of mankind's most prized possessions. Yet most people have little idea where gold comes from, other than from "gold mines."

Mining gold today often becomes monumental undertakings, truly some of man's greatest engineering feats. Imagine gold mining shafts nearly two and a half miles below the surface and it taking two hours for miners to get to their work stations. Imagine a pit so large that it can be seen from outer space.

No reason to imagine, those are the realities in the mining of gold revealed in "The World's 10 Most Prolific Gold Fields."
1. Witwatersrand Basin (Johannesburg, South Africa)
Witwatersrand Basin Gold Field

The head frame of the Tau Tona Mine is the lone entrance to over 500 miles of tunnels.

Located in South Africa, the Witwatersrand Basin represents the richest gold field ever discovered. It is estimated the 40% of all of the gold ever mined has come out of the Basin. In 1970, South Africa's output accounted for 79% of the world's gold production. By 2009, South Africa's share of world gold production had dropped to less than 8%.

Mining in the Witwatersrand Basin is accomplished by creating deep underground tunnels that are necessary to reach the plentiful reserves. The Tau Tona Mine features the deepest tunnel in the world extending a full 2.4 miles below the earth's surface. A massive ventilation and air conditioning system is required to overcome the extreme working conditions throughout the over 500 miles of tunnels. At its deepest levels, the air temperature reaches 131 F and the rock face itself 140 F. The mine is so extensive that it takes workers a full two hours to travel from the surface to the deepest sections of the mine where they must then contend with pockets of lethal gas, water and a continual barrage of small earthquakes.

Witwatersrand Basin Gold Bars

The discovery of gold in the Basin in 1886 by Australian miner George Walker set off one of the largest gold rushes in history. The surrounding area became the city of Johannesburg, and within ten years Johannesburg was the largest city in South Africa. The huge influx of foreigners (mostly British) created resentment among the Boer (prior Dutch settlers). Imposition of heavy taxes and restriction of voting rights by the Boer led to the Second Boer War in 1899.

Sources
http://www.mbendi.com/indy/ming/gold/af/sa/p0005.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold
http://siowwf.blogspot.com/2009/05/t...-in-world.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Witwatersrand_Gold_Rush
National Geographic documentary Megastructures: Tau Tona City of Gold.
Kitco.com

http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/blog/...-in-the-world/

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain Over 3% and 7% on the Week

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 07:18 AM PDT

Gold rose to a new all-time high of $1474.74 by a little after noon EST before it fell back off a bit into the close, but it still ended with a gain of 1.01%. Silver climbed to a new 31-year high of $40.613 in the last minutes of trade and ended with a gain of 2.71%.

Are Assets Out of Whack?

Posted: 08 Apr 2011 07:18 AM PDT

Market Blog submits:

By David Berman

Are you mystified by the market these days, wondering how far the gains in gold and oil can go, and how low the U.S. dollar can fall? There is certainly a lot of momentum at work here. Avery Shenfeld, chief economist and strategist at CIBC World Markets, likens the recent action to that of a freight train "rumbling down the track, allowing nothing to get in its way.

"It's a cliché, but few traders really are brave enough to step in front of a moving freight train," he said in a note.

In other words, the market appears to be ignoring some news that should be slowing this train. For example, the euro wasn't exactly rocked by Portugal's need for a financial bailout.

"The market is ignoring all of Europe's fiscal and banking troubles and trading off a single indicator, interest differentials, and the prospect they will


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