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- $300 Silver is Beginning to Look Conservative! Here's Why
- David Freedom – Truth Behind the Next Global War
- India Markets Wednesday Wrap-Up: Profit-Booking Drags Large Cap Stocks
- DirecTV's Subscriber Growth Could Add to Stock Upside
- The Dollar: America vs. the World
- Wednesday Interest Rate Brief
- Euro and Swiss Franc Surge, Yen Weakens
- Inflation Fears: Fed is Underestimating the Escalating Threat
- Oil, Metals And Corn Lead Commodity ETF Rally
- ETF Scorecard: XHB or ITB… The Difference Might Surprise You
- Silver: What Backwardation Looks Like
- Surging Oil and Deepening Inflation…
- Financial blogger: Why hyperinflation – not deflation – is the biggest risk to America
- Gold and Silver Gather Strength for Bigger Moves
- Visualize – 1980 Gold Bubble Charts
- April 5, 1961 Us foreign exchange operations : needs and methods
- Hedge Funds Short Mining Stocks are Going to Get Roasted - John Hathaway
- Is the Silver Trade Getting Too Crowded?
- When FDR banned gold
- Gold Breakout and Silver Going Parabolic
- Gold $1452
- Gold Volatility Your Profits DoorKey
- April 5, 1933 : Gold Confiscation Executive Order #6102
- A Look at Gold’s Long-Term Outlook
- The Japanese Economy Is In Much Bigger Trouble Than Most People Think
- There Is More Where This Gift Has Come ...
| $300 Silver is Beginning to Look Conservative! Here's Why Posted: 06 Apr 2011 03:56 AM PDT The price ratio of gold versus silver has been dropping in the last couple of years in favor of the white precious metal. At the moment, the gold/silver ratio is trading below the "crucial" bandwidth of 40-to-50, currently hovering around 38x... [which] marks the beginning of a new phase in the bull cycle. The gold/silver ratio could finally be on its way to our target of 16x, the historical bottom in the last century. [Let me explain why I think that may well be the case.] Words: 580 |
| David Freedom – Truth Behind the Next Global War Posted: 06 Apr 2011 03:54 AM PDT The Truth Behind the Next Global War To understand the truth behind the push for war, we must first accept nothing happens by chance. "Nothing happens by chance, my friend… No such thing as luck. A meaning behind every little thing, and such a meaning behind this. Part for you, part for me, may not see it all real clear right now, but we will, before long" My intention is to expose the manipulation behind the upcoming wars as briefly as possible. When the masses understand the agenda, the conspiracy will no longer exist. At the heart of manipulation is deceit, essential to its success. The Motives: Order from Chaos You are witnessing the death of the American empire and the birth of the New World Order. Amongst others, the following agendas are in play: The destruction of the middle class, population reduction (unfortunate truth) and elimination of faith in God. Each of the above-mentioned items presents a risk to the emergence of a "divine" ruling class. In the not too distant future, public consumption of resources will not only be expensive, they'll be completely regulated. If their agenda is allowed to succeed, the enslaved population will be maintained at a "manageable" level just high enough to serve their rulers. Danger to Israel Since the Balfour Declaration in 1917, the Rothschild family has played a critical role in the establishment and ongoing policies of the national home for the Jewish people. After the UN Partition Plan in 1948, Israel proclaimed itself and independent state. The controlling power behind Israel are Khazars by origin and do not share the Jewish (or Christian) faith and are now planning to put the Jewish nation in harms way. These same powers control the US and UK. "I know thy works, and tribulation and poverty, (but thou art rich) and I know the blasphemy of them which say they are Jews, and are not, but are the synagogue of Satan." The Book of Revelation, Chapter 2, Verse 9 Just as they are sacrificing their own institutions (e.g., national Central Banks) to achieve a new monetary order, they are going to use Israel to incite religious fervor and unthinkable upheaval around the globe. At the same time they are manipulating Shi'a-Sunni relations as a divide and conquer tactic. This is a difficult concept to grasp, but I'm hoping that by seeing the long-term goals, you'll be able to understand the individual moves. Interests connected to Rothschild family (e.g., George Soros) are now funding groups openly opposed to Israel and the US. These groups include Al Qaeda, now being supported and supplied by Rothschild interests across the Middle East and Africa. Even to the casual observer, this must raise questions. Manipulation of Religion Congruent with the world's religious prophecy for Judgment Day, the Mayan "Long Count" calendar marks the end of a 5,126 year era on Dec. 21, 2012. Related to all of these prophecies is the undisputable evidence that our world is undergoing tremendous change. Are these external forces, at least in part, driving financial and political upheaval? The answer to this question is a resounding "yes". But we must take this one step further. The power elite, or MMBE as I've called them, do not share the beliefs of the world's religions. In fact, they believe they are gods themselves, capable of harnessing the forces of nature for self-serving purposes – I'm talking about the highest levels here. "I fancied myself as some kind of god …" Historically, much of their success has come from manipulation and deceit. This is their religion. If you understand this fact, you can make the jump to seeing our time in history presents an opportunity. It's also understood within their circles that real changes are occurring that threaten their social order. They must actively guide these changes in order to achieve their desired results. It's analogous to going "all-in" on the river in a game of Texas Hold 'Em. As this unfolds, many will merely be actors in a play. From heads-of-state, down to Egyptian farmers, they are playing a role scripted by the interests of a few. We must write the script for ourselves and our children. Do not participate in any (ethnic, religious, resource, etc.) war against the meek. Opting-out of the war racket is paramount. I am compelled to take accountability and ownership for my actions and fellow man. I will not impose my religious-will on others. As stewards of truth, we must become educated and engaged to protect the liberties that are God's will. "The people cannot be all, and always, well informed. The part which is wrong will be discontented, in proportion to the importance of the facts they misconceive. If they remain quiet under such misconceptions, it is lethargy, the forerunner of death to the public liberty…" For longer than we can imagine, the power interests have been planning for this time in history. They have faith in esoteric doctrines and secret technology. These are the tools of the MMBE. Many false prophets will appear in the not too distant future. Some of which will be deceptions of hidden technology. Do not be fooled. Remain steadfast in faith and morality; it's what separates us from them, man from beast. Are today's events the days foretold in prophecy? I cannot speak to the timing of Judgment Day, for only the Father knows, however, I am confident it's God's will that we actively pursue and promote liberty for all, up until our last days. Just as Noah worked day after day building a boat, we must actively prepare. Noah did not expect God to build his boat; he was given the knowledge of truth and worked to fulfill God's will. ~David Freedom |
| India Markets Wednesday Wrap-Up: Profit-Booking Drags Large Cap Stocks Posted: 06 Apr 2011 03:25 AM PDT Equitymaster submits: The benchmark indices in the Indian stock market opened in the positive today. However as the session progressed, they moved into negative territory. Mid-session, the indices managed to come off their day's lows. However, a negative closing could not be avoided and the markets ended the trading session in the red. The BSE-Sensex traded lower by around 106 points (0.5%) whereas NSE-Nifty closed lower by 20 points (0.4%). BSE Midcap and BSE Small cap indices on the other hand had a better outing, bucking the trend and closing higher by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively. The market breadth still remained positive with the advance to decline ratio on the Sensex being in favor of the former. Complete Story » |
| DirecTV's Subscriber Growth Could Add to Stock Upside Posted: 06 Apr 2011 03:25 AM PDT Trefis submits: DirecTV (NASDAQ:DTV) is the second largest pay-TV service provider after Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and the largest direct broadcast satellite (DBS) service provider in the United States. It mainly competes with Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) in the DBS space. DirectTV's pay-TV market share has risen in the past few years, from 16% in 2006 to around 18% in 2010. However, we don't expect much upside in its market share going forward, as it loses out to cable and telecom players when it comes to bundling services (voice, internet, and TV) as well as in providing bandwidth heavy services like video on demand (VOD).
(Chart created by using Trefis' app ) DirecTV could also take a hit from the potential NFL lockout, as it may have to refund fees charged to subscribers for its "NFL Sunday Ticket" package and still pay a licensing fee for the NFL broadcast. However, the actual stock impact from this Complete Story » |
| The Dollar: America vs. the World Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:54 AM PDT John M. Mason submits: I look at the following chart and ask whether or not there is some constant factor that stands behind the decline in the value of the dollar over the past fifty years. (Click charts to enlarge) Well, you say the chart only covers roughly forty years, why are you talking about fifty years? You are right that the chart covers only the last forty years or so, but the consistency that runs from the early 1960s to the present began around fifty years ago.
Complete Story » |
| Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:52 AM PDT Andrew Wilkinson submits: Bond traders faced another sloppy session as inflation jitters grew sending yields higher. The Federal Reserve's policy of pump-priming the economy is working well enough to cause concern among its members that perhaps they should take their feet off the pedal if the finish line is now in sight. Lining the streets, however, are rising signs of inflation that are prompting bets that an end to the stimulus will come sooner rather than later. Those risks are showing up in inflation-adjusted securities where spreads over conventional government debt are widening in a sign that investor caution is growing. Eurodollar futures – The combination of low interest rates and rising inflation sent precious metals' prices higher with gold making a second day of record highs midweek. Silver prices haven't traded so high in 30 years. While the Fed might have rescued the economy, the side effect of upwards pressure on commodity Complete Story » |
| Euro and Swiss Franc Surge, Yen Weakens Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:48 AM PDT Marc Chandler submits: The euro has shot higher, reaching 15 month highs, while the US dollar firms to 6 month highs against the yen. The main driving for remains interest rates and interest rate expectations. Strong German manufacturing underscores ECB rate hike inevitablity tomorrow, while the FOMC minutes and recent speeches by Fed leadership clearly indicates Treasury purchases and unconventional easing continues apace. UK data disappointed. The 1.3% decline in Feb industrial production raises fears of renewed economic weakness, despite the strong service PMI yesterday. Short sterling futures are recovering from yesterday's sell-off. Sterling itself is flattish against the dollar aorund $1.6300, but the strength of the euro means that sterling is suggering on the cross. It is not about 0.75% off the low we identified yesterday. Switzerland reported a higher than expected March inflation. The 0.6% increase was three times as much as expected and brings the year-over-year rate to 1.0% Deflation Complete Story » |
| Inflation Fears: Fed is Underestimating the Escalating Threat Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:28 AM PDT Martin Hutchinson submits: Pretty much everyone but U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke sees that inflation is returning: After all, even Bernanke's favorite inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator, was up 0.4% in February - which hints at an annualized inflation rate of almost 5%. Look Beyond the Numbers At first glance, the most recent inflation statistics are disquieting, but no more. Bernanke would tell us that "core" consumer price inflation, excluding food and energy, rose at only 1.2% in the last six months. Overall consumer price inflation rose 0.4% in February, and has risen at an annual rate of 3.7% in the last six months. Even Bernanke's favorite indicator - the price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures - was up 2.7% over the last six months, suggesting that inflation is indeed stirring. The inflation "hawks" - who Complete Story » |
| Oil, Metals And Corn Lead Commodity ETF Rally Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:22 AM PDT Tom Lydon submits: ETFs are enjoying a run as investors position for inflation, and with Portugal's recent downgrade and poor bond auction stoking sovereign-debt fears. Reuters reports that gold jumped to an all-time high above $1,450 an ounce on Tuesday, giving a 1% rise to bullion. On technical charts, gold broke above $1,440 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was up 1.6% Tuesday. Precious metals were adding to their gains Wednesday as gold notched a new record Complete Story » |
| ETF Scorecard: XHB or ITB… The Difference Might Surprise You Posted: 06 Apr 2011 01:57 AM PDT
But not all ETFs are created equal. Some ETFs have liquidity issues making it difficult to move even modest amounts of capital on a short-term basis. Others may be comprised of securities that are not directly tied to the expected focus of the fund. And at times, the holdings can be so concentrated that the ETF offers little in the way of practical diversification. So when trading ETFs, it pays to know the details. Understanding how a particular ETF will react to different market scenarios puts a trader in a better position to succeed. A deeper understanding of the inner workings of individual ETFs allows not only for proper selection when setting up an individual trade, but also better conviction (positive or negative) when holding a position. Understanding how an ETF is put together helps me to know how a trade will react in a particular situation. If a retail ETF is comprised of stocks selling to higher-income customers, I may be less likely to short this vehicle in an environment where the current great compression has squeezed the lower-income consumer, while more affluent consumers remain healthy. Today, we're going to look at two popular homebuilder ETFs. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB) and iShares DJ US Home Construction (ITB) securities sound like similar vehicles, but behind the scenes they operate from a very different perspective. Portfolio Construction When I look at the US housing market, I'm typically focusing on the "shadow inventory" of homes likely to hit the market, the falling prices for both new and existing homes, and the lethargic level of activity on a nationwide basis. We have looked at several vulnerable homebuilders as short candidates, and another option for taking advantage of the perennially weak sector may be to pick inflection points using popular homebuilder ETFs. When it comes to the actual holdings within the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB) and iShares DJ US Home Construction (ITB) securities, the differences are significant. Starting with XHB, the good news is that there is plenty of diversification. The ETF is made up of 35 different stock positions, and the top 10 positions represent only 38% of the fund. But looking a bit more closely at the individual positions, XHB looks much more like a retail ETF than a home building security. The top four positions in the fund are Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Pier 1 Imports (PIR), Tempur-Pedic Intl (TPX), and Mohawk Industries (MHK)
Only ONE of these names is even related to homebuilding. Of course new homes are usually furnished so the positions are related, but this is hardly a "homebuilder" ETF. Rounding out the top 10 positions, are BBY, PHM, OC, LEG, WHR and AOS. Of these positions, only PHM is a true homebuilder. So if you're looking for accurate exposure to the homebuilding industry, XHB is probably not the right vehicle. The positions are certainly related to homebuilding, but there are issues that affect retailers that may not be the same issues affecting the actual homebuilding industry.  Less Diversification, Better Construction The iShares DJ US Home Construction (ITB) fund has a bit more focus when it comes to actual homebuilding companies. Looking at the top four positions, we have NVR Inc. (NVR), D.R. Horton (DHI), Lennar Corp. (LEN), and Toll Brothers (TOL). All four of these positions are legitimate homebuilders. While the companies operate in different geographic regions, and are differentiated by quality and types of homes sold, they all actually build homes – a novel concept…
Notice the difference in the chart patterns. Instead of the strong upward trend that we see in the XHB retail names, the actual homebuilders look much more vulnerable. There are certainly reasons why home-related retailers are performing better than the actual homebuilders. Logically, it makes sense for homeowners to spend money improving their existing home. After all, if you're stuck with a home that you can't sell on the market, it makes sense to buy some nice flooring, a few curtains and a new mattress. As a trader, if I want to make a bet (for or against) the homebuilding industry, I want to make sure that the vehicle that I choose actually tracks the industry that I am following. Now ITB offers a bit less in terms of diversification… The top four positions account for roughly 29% of the fund's assets, and the top 10 positions make up more than half of the portfolio composition. Low diversification means that if something out of the ordinary happens to any ONE company, it could have a larger effect on the ETF. But even NVR (the largest ITB position) only represents 8.33% of assets – not enough to cause a major problem. Liquidity Favors XHB In terms of liquidity, XHB is by far the more favorable choice. Trading roughly 4.9 million shares a day, with a security price near $18.30, the average daily dollar volume is $90.3 million. That's plenty of liquidity – even for large traders with hundreds of millions under management (assuming a manager isn't going to bet the entire farm on this one trade…) ITB only trades about 690,000 shares a day, and with a price near $13.30, that equates to a daily dollar volume of about $9.2 million. If you manage a shop with AUM of $100 million and want to take a 5% position in the ETF, you're going to have difficulty putting your position on without significant slippage. But for most individual and niche prop traders, ITB has plenty of liquidity for active trading. So while there are a few reasons XHB has developed a reputation for being the "go-to" ETF for homebuilders (primarily liquidity and diversification), ITB is likely the better choice for most traders looking for exposure to the US homebuilding market. There's a lot of action in this group right now, with significant opportunities for nimble traders. Hopefully this ETF scorecard information gives you some good ammunition for picking the right vehicle for capturing your profits. |
| Silver: What Backwardation Looks Like Posted: 06 Apr 2011 01:45 AM PDT Richard Bloch submits: It's pretty clear that the market for silver has been showing signs of significant supply/demand imbalances. You can see that in the price for silver itself, but what adds context to understanding this market is its contango. The contango for a commodity simply shows the difference between the price for delivery of in the near term vs. the price for delivery later, say a year from now. Usually the price for delivery of an ounce of silver a year from now would be higher than the current spot price. That's understandable. After all, if you're selling that silver, you'd want a higher price for storing it. If you're the buyer, you'd expect to pay some sort of premium because you're not comitting the capital to take delivery right now. For example, here's a look at the contango for silver from December 2007 through July of 2008 – just before the Complete Story » |
| Surging Oil and Deepening Inflation… Posted: 06 Apr 2011 01:41 AM PDT gold.ie |
| Financial blogger: Why hyperinflation – not deflation – is the biggest risk to America Posted: 06 Apr 2011 01:33 AM PDT From Gonzalo Lira: So Rick Ackerman posted a piece that I spotted on Zero Hedge – which surprised the hell out of me. Either Tyler and his gang of merry pranksters are losing their nerve about the downward trajectory they think the U.S. economy and monetary policy is headed in – or they ran the piece for s@$&* and giggles. Ackerman's piece said, in effect, dollar hyperinflation was impossible. His post was titled "Big Gap in Logic Weakens Hyperinflation Argument." I've got a rep for being a hyperinflationist – which isn't exactly true: I'm a dollar hyperinflationist, but a euro deflationist. So when Ackerman said he had proof positive that hyperinflation in America was impossible – that he had, as he claimed, found a "big gap in logic" – I was like, “Cool. Show me... Read full article... More on hyperinflation: How hyperinflation could come to America Everything you've heard about investing for inflation could be wrong Market legend Vic Sperandeo: U.S. is nearing the hyperinflation "breaking point" |
| Gold and Silver Gather Strength for Bigger Moves Posted: 06 Apr 2011 01:00 AM PDT SunshineProfits |
| Visualize – 1980 Gold Bubble Charts Posted: 05 Apr 2011 11:11 PM PDT
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| April 5, 1961 Us foreign exchange operations : needs and methods Posted: 05 Apr 2011 10:30 PM PDT History of Gold |
| Hedge Funds Short Mining Stocks are Going to Get Roasted - John Hathaway Posted: 05 Apr 2011 08:29 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverGold's high price in Far East trading came minutes before 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...and from there it was a long, slow decline of about eight bucks...and then it bounced off $1,430 a couple of times. But once the London p.m. gold fix was in at 3:00 p.m. GMT...10:00 a.m. Eastern, the gold price rose twenty bucks in a bit over an hour...and then spent the rest of the New York trading session gaining another five dollars...closing virtually on its high of the day. Volume was not overly heavy...which I'm always glad to see.
When the silver chart came up on my screen yesterday morning, I wasn't at all surprised by what I saw. Silver also had its high in the Far East at 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...but silver's low came in London at twelve noon right on the button...which is the London daily silver fix. From that low, silver never looked back...and tacked on over a dollar...closing [like gold] virtually on its high of the day. Relatively speaking, silver's volume was much higher than gold's.
The dollar traded within twenty-five basis points of its 75.90 opening price in Far East trading on Tuesday morning...which is 6:00 p.m. in New York on Monday evening...and closed the day basically unchanged. You don't need a fancy degree in anything to tell you that the dollar's price action had little bearing on precious metals prices yesterday. And, as has been the case lately, the scale of the dollar chart make the price activity look more dramatic than it really was.
The gold stock buyers were out in force yesterday...and, for a change, the gold stocks behaved like silver stocks...with impressive gains across the board. The HUI, which was up an astonishing 5.04%, closed virtually on its high of the day. The silver stocks did very well, too...but not as well as I was expecting, considering the price gain. More than a handful were only up a fraction of a percent...but the usual stalwarts turned in huge gains. One of the junior silver producers that I own shares in, had the audacity to close down on the day! Look how spoiled I've become.
Here's Nick Laird's "Silver Sentiment Index"...which has now officially broken out to new highs. Let's hope that this is a sign of more good things to come.
It was another sleeper of a day over at the CME yesterday...as their Daily Delivery Report showed that a magnificent 4 gold, along with 14 silver contracts, were posted for delivery on Thursday. For a change, the GLD had an addition yesterday. It was 48,755 troy ounces...and there was no report from SLV. But, based on the price action lately, I'd say that the SLV is owed silver...and it's just a matter of how much and how fast it can be delivered. The U.S. Mint had a very small sales report yesterday...selling another 3,000 ounces of gold eagles...and nothing else. Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday, they reported receiving 11,333 ounces of silver...but shipped 173,155 troy ounces of the stuff out the door, for a net decline of 161,822 ounces. Here's a Casey Research chart that was sent to me by Washington state reader S.A. It's my personal opinion that the 1980 high in 2011 dollars is supposed to be in the $165 price range...but $110 is a nice jumping-off point.
Here are a couple of graphs that Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com slid into my in-box late last night...along with these comments..."Hi Ed, E-Bay's base price for Silver Eagles is now over $40...and they have few sales happening - the volume of sales has dried up by 80%. Silver has doubled since August. If gold had done the same it would now be $2,600. We shall be patient. Cheers, Nick"
The concentration on the short side of COMEX silver is a national disgrace. Silver Sentiment Index breaks out to new highs. When FDR banned gold. King World News audio interview with Eric Sprott. Is the Silver Trade Getting Too Crowded? ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeHouse Republicans Maneuver For Budget Cuts As Shutdown LoomsI don't have a lot of items today...but the quality makes up for the lack of quantity, as there are a lot of must reads, watches and listens in today's 'Critical Read' section...so I hope you can find the time. My first story today is out of The Huffington Post...and is courtesy of reader Roy Stephens. With budget talks deadlocked, House Republicans drafted a one-week bill Monday night to cut spending by $12 billion, fully fund the Pentagon...and avert a government shutdown threatened for Friday. At the same time, they disclosed plans to instruct lawmakers "on how the House would operate in the event Senate Democrats shut down the government." The link is here.  Charlie Rose Interviews Inside Job's Charles FergusonCharles Ferguson, who deservedly won an Oscar for his must watch movie of 2010, Inside Job, appeared on Charlie Rose in yet another must watch interview. Ferguson is once again given a chance to clarify his position on why nobody will likely ever go to prison for what amounts to the greatest generational and class heist ever witnessed. I thank Alberta reader B.E.O. for sharing it with us. It's posted over at zerohedge.com...and T.D.'s introduction is worth reading as well. The link is here.  Michael Steinhardt Tells The Truth, The Whole Truth, And Especially The Truth About The Greatest "Con Job": Warren BuffettHere's another must watch video that's posted over at zerohedge.com...and this one's courtesy of reader 'David in California'. I must admit that I'd never heard of hedge fund manager Michael Steinhardt up until I saw this CNBC interview...and what I saw amazed even me. This was a man who demanded respect...and I got the distinct impression that showing up in front of Joe Kernen et al was somewhat beneath his dignity...and the moment that he got the opportunity, he really laid the lumber on them. It was obvious that the talking heads were way out of their league with this guy. As I said, it's a must watch interview...and the link is here.  Understanding the rise of China: Martin JacquesHere's a ted.com lecture about China that was sent to me by Australian reader Wesley Legrand. The presentation runs just under twenty-one minutes...and it's a must listen as well...and the link to this eye-opening commentary is here.  When FDR banned goldMy first gold related story is this piece that was posted over at marketwatch.com yesterday...and was sent to me by reader Jack Anderson...who I thank on your behalf. Tuesday marks the 78th anniversary of an event about which most Americans are completely ignorant, but one which looms quite large among an older generation of gold investors. On April 5, 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed an executive order forbidding U.S. citizens from owning gold. This is a very short must read piece...and the link is here.  Hedge Funds Short Miners are Going to Get Roasted - John HathawayHere's a most excellent King World News offering that Eric slid into my in-box at 2:08 a.m. Eastern time this morning. It's a must read blog that stars Tocqueville Asset Management's John Hathaway. The link is here.  Audio of King World News interview with Eric SprottYesterday I posted a KWN blog with Eric Sprott. Here's the complete audio interview which, of course, I haven't had time to listen to yet. But, it's a pretty good bet that it will be well worth your time...and the link is here.  Is the Silver Trade Getting Too Crowded?Yesterday's edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch carried the title you see above. It's a piece by BIG GOLD editor Jeff Clark. Amongst many other things, Jeff had this to say..."This is a market where you'll want to be well ahead of the pack. Someday in the not-too-distant future, average investors will be tripping over themselves to join in. That will make the market caps of our silver investments look more like some of the others in the charts above. And that will do wonderful things to our portfolio." It will indeed. I'm still 'all in'...and I haven't so |
| Is the Silver Trade Getting Too Crowded? Posted: 05 Apr 2011 08:29 PM PDT  Yesterday's edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch carried the title you see above. It's a piece by BIG GOLD editor Jeff Clark. Amongst many other things, Jeff had this to say..."This is a market where you'll want to be well ahead of the pack. Someday in the not-too-distant future, average investors will be tripping over themselves to join in. That will make the market caps of our silver investments look more like some of the others in the charts above. And that will do wonderful things to our portfolio." |
| Posted: 05 Apr 2011 08:29 PM PDT  My first gold related story is this piece that was posted over at marketwatch.com yesterday...and was sent to me by reader Jack Anderson...who I thank on your behalf. Tuesday marks the 78th anniversary of an event about which most Americans are completely ignorant, but one which looms quite large among an older generation of gold investors. On April 5, 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed an executive order forbidding U.S. citizens from owning gold. This is a very short must read piece...and the link is here. |
| Gold Breakout and Silver Going Parabolic Posted: 05 Apr 2011 06:46 PM PDT We obviously have been too cautious on Silver. The metal has been on a tear and has shown no weakness in the past few weeks. Our upside targets were $37 and $39. A clean break of $39, which seems imminent will send the market to $45 and possibly $50. Monday was the start of a parabolic move. First Majestic Silver, the strongest performing Silver stock has already gone parabolic. Keep an eye on First Majestic to gauge or confirm movements in Silver. We still hold First Majestic in our premium service portfolio, which was originally recommended almost two years ago. In our missive last Friday, we noted that Gold is close to embarking on another acceleration. Please see the chart below. Gold began an initial acceleration in late 2005 and has gradually accelerated in the past 18 months. Over the next few months there is channel resistance from $1470-$1500 and $1500 marks an important Fibonacci target. If this is a real breakout then the market should surpass $1500 in the next few months. The strong targets are shown on the chart. Over the weekend we studied various secular bull markets to get an idea of when markets begin to accelerate. It is easy to find the bubble but its more important to find that phase that leads to the bubble. In looking at a handful of bull markets we found that the typical acceleration begins in year 11 of the bull market and that after year 12 it is obvious the market has changed its character. Hence we are projecting a visible acceleration in 2012-2013. Moving along, lets look at the gold stocks. Below is a chart of the Barrons Gold Mining Index that dates back to 1938. The index is current as of two days ago which means the index likely made a new all time high on Tuesday. A sustained move higher confirms a historic breakout past 31 year resistance. Right now all you need to know are two things. First, take a look at the above breakout. Second, consider the estimation that 1% of global assets and 0.30% of pension assets are allocated to Gold and gold shares. Folks, this is absolutely stunning. This is why this bull market will be the greatest bull market in generations. George Soros knows what he's talking about when he says, "Gold is the ultimate bubble." The coming global debt crisis and currency crisis will wipeout some while enriching others. The smart money is positioned. Are you? For more analysis and guidance, consider a free 14 day trial to our service. Good Luck! Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
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| Posted: 05 Apr 2011 05:34 PM PDT
Mercenary Links Roundup for Tuesday, April 5th (below the jump).
04-05 Tuesday
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| Gold Volatility Your Profits DoorKey Posted: 05 Apr 2011 04:55 PM PDT
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| April 5, 1933 : Gold Confiscation Executive Order #6102 Posted: 05 Apr 2011 04:45 PM PDT
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| A Look at Gold’s Long-Term Outlook Posted: 05 Apr 2011 04:42 PM PDT |
| The Japanese Economy Is In Much Bigger Trouble Than Most People Think Posted: 05 Apr 2011 04:00 PM PDT 
On top of everything else, the nuclear crisis at Fukushima never seems to end. In fact, it seems to get worse with each passing day. According to the Los Angeles Times, it has now been announced that seawater off the coast of Japan near the Fukushima facility was recently found to contain 7.5 million times the legal limit of radioactive iodine....
Do you think anyone is going to want any Japanese seafood after this? In fact, at this point one must really question the long-term prospects for the seafood industry in that entire region of Asia. There are going to be tens of millions of people (myself included) that will no longer want anything to do with any seafood that comes from that part of the world. Sadly, some nuclear experts now claim that it could take years to bring the reactors at Fukushima fully back under control. At the end of this crisis, how large of an area around Fukushima will be uninhabitable? A 20 km radius? A 30 km radius? A 40 km radius? More? Japan is the third largest economy in the world, but it never was a large nation to begin with. Now that the tsunami and the nuclear crisis at Fukushima have made the amount of usable land significantly smaller, what is that going to mean for the future of the Japanese economy? That is a very good question. The truth is that there are already signs that the Japanese economy is regressing into another recession. According to The Telegraph, one major manufacturing index in Japan has already shown a very serious decline....
In particular, the auto industry is really being affected by this crisis. Vehicle supply chains all over the globe are now in a state of chaos. Approximately 3,000 individual parts go into every single new vehicle. If even one of those parts is missing, a new car or truck cannot be built. So just how big of a problem are we looking at? Well, it was originally projected that 72 million vehicles would be built around the globe in 2011. As a result of the crisis in Japan, approximately 5 million of those vehicles will not be built. That is very serious. In fact, Goldman Sachs is projecting that this crisis is currently costing automakers in Japan $200 million every single day. Ouch! A recent article on CNBC detailed some of the problems that Japanese automakers are facing right now....
Unfortunately, the worst for the auto industry is yet to come. AutoNation is warning that "production disruptions will significantly impact product availability from Japanese auto manufacturers in the second and third quarters of 2011." Because of supply chain disruptions, a number of North American manufacturing facilities look like they will be shutting down at least for a while. For example, Toyota has announced that it will be shutting down all of its North American factories for a certain period of time because of shortages of parts from Japan. But Toyota is far from alone as a recent report in The Globe and Mail made quite clear....
So why don't North American facilities just switch to other suppliers? Unfortunately, as CNN recently noted, it is just not that simple....
The truth is that this is a complete and total economic disaster. The Japanese economy is not going to be the same for many years to come. In fact, many are now warning that this could be one of the triggers that could lead to another major global financial crisis. One of the big fears is that Japan will need to sell off a large amount of U.S. Treasuries to fund the rebuilding of that nation. If that were to happen, it could result in a "liquidity crisis" similar to what we saw in 2008. Already the rest of the world is really starting to lose confidence in the U.S. dollar and in U.S. Treasuries, and if Japan starts massively dumping U.S. government debt things could get out of control fairly quickly. In any event, it is undeniable that the Japanese economy has been absolutely devastated by this crisis. In fact, when you combine the tsunami and the nuclear crisis, this could be the biggest economic disaster that any major industrial power has faced since World War 2. So will the crisis in Japan push the rest of the globe into another major recession? Only time will tell. |
| There Is More Where This Gift Has Come ... Posted: 05 Apr 2011 04:00 PM PDT Gold University |
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