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Sunday, April 3, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


COMEX Commercials Take a Stand at Gold Highs

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 07:00 PM PDT

HOUSTON – Remember that last week gold attempted a breakout to new highs but was turned back? Evidence in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commitments of traders (COT) report suggests that the largest commercial sellers of gold futures took a stand in opposition as gold made new highs. Going into this past Tuesday, the cutoff day for COT reporting, we thought at first glance that perhaps the Big Sellers of paper gold sensed an opportunity to get some downside traction – something they have found increasingly difficult to achieve in recent months because of intense dip buying in the physical gold market. Now, however, it is apparent that the Big Sellers took their stand as gold attempted a breakout last week. ...


The Lesson from Japan for PM Investors

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 06:09 PM PDT

By Jeff Clark, BIG GOLDIt feels a little callous writing about Japan with respect to precious metals after the country suffered such a terrible tragedy. However, I think it's worth discussing because there's a lesson in it for all of us. In fact, I think the moral could be couched in terms of a warning.Japan's Background with Precious MetalsIt's commonly known in Japanese culture that citizens harbor gold to protect against unforeseen events. The gold isn't sold unless it's needed for an emergency. With respect to the Japanese government, the country's central bank is the 8th largest holder of the metal (including the IMF and GLD). Beyond investment, Japan represents about 6% of worldwide gold fabrication (excluding investment demand), the majority of which is in electronics. Scrap recycling has been heavy in recent years, while jewelry demand is low.Regarding silver, the tiny island represents about 9% of global demand. Industrial uses comprise the biggest part of that, which includes...


Silver Market Update March 31st, 2011

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 05:58 PM PDT

Silver is very overbought and this fact coupled with the dramatic spike in the silver gold ratio would normally be expected to lead to a significant reaction by both gold and silver, as usually happened following such a situation in the past, but these are not normal times. On its 2-year chart we can see how silver has been romping ahead since it broke out last August and following its latest upleg had become critically overbought by early March, but only a minor reaction followed. On the long-term chart for silver going back to 1999 we can see that it has hit a target, and while it may continue to an even higher one, gold is looking like a better place to be over the short to medium-term. The silver/gold ratio chart makes clear in a dramatic manner how silver has greatly outperformed gold in the recent past. In the past this has normally lead to an intermediate reversal in both, but given the predicament the shorts find themselves in, and the extraordinary situati...


Gold Market Update April 2nd, 2011

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 05:55 PM PDT

Gold Market Update originally published April 2nd, 2011 Since the Masters of the System have decided to arbitrarily "move the goalposts" to suit themselves by printing money in unlimited quantities, fixing interest rates at artificially low levels, and backstopping the bond market etc, it is incumbent on us as investors to find a fixed point of reference and safe anchorage, the better to weather the financial storms that their crassly irresponsible policies are bringing upon us. That fixed point of reference is gold. As gold is real money it is aloof from the mess and mayhem that now exists in the world of fiat and which is rapidly getting worse - and here it is necessary to make a crucially important point, which is that at this time in world history you have to completely reorder your thinking with respect with gold. STOP nervously going online or picking up the newspaper to check the price of gold against fiat - it is IRRELEVANT. The question you have to ask yourself is this -...


Dow Jones BEV Plot 1885 to 2011 & Credit Market Indicators

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 05:44 PM PDT

[EMAIL="Mlundeen2@Comcast.net"]Mlundeen2@Comcast.net[/EMAIL] 01 April 2011 It's been the better part of a year since I last covered the Bear's Eye View (BEV) Plots in depth. So, since Part 3 on US Currency in Circulation (CinC), which examines the Barron's Gold Mining Index & the Dow Jones from 1920 to 2011 is not yet ready for publication, I'm going to take a long overdue look at my favorite BEV Plot: the weekly Dow Jones Industrials from 1885 to 2011. I'm a retired US Navy Chief Petty Officer, whose passion for markets began in 1977 when I first began visiting the library at San Diego's 32nd Street Naval Station and discovered Barron's magazine. Later, when I was on the decommissioning crew for the USS Midway, at San Diego's Coronado Naval Air Station, I purchased a laptop computer with a hard-drive, running DOS 5.0. Real cutting edge stuff 20 years ago. A fellow Chief from the Midway, and I used to visit the San Diego city library when on liberty, and enter data from old iss...


The Bedrock of the Gold Bull Rally

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 05:16 PM PDT

The Bedrock of the Gold Bull Rally By Frank Holmes CEO and Chief Investment Officer U.S. Global Investors This week I had the pleasure of participating in a webcast for Bloomberg Markets Magazine regarding gold investing. It was a very insightful presentation and I suggest you view the replay at Bloomberg Markets Magazine - Bloomberg. What struck me on the call was the negativity surrounding the gold market. Call it a bubble, a frenzy or mania, there seems to be a large number of voices in the marketplace who just are not fans of gold, whether prices are moving up, down or sideways. Naysayers started calling gold a bubble back when prices hit $250 an ounce and though gold’s bull market has tossed and flung the bubble callers around for almost a decade now, their voices have only gotten increasingly louder as prices broke through $1,000, $1,200 and now $1,400 an ounce. However, gold prices appear asymptomatic of the signs generally associated with financial bubbles. For instance...


Gene Arensberg: New 28-year low for the gold/silver ratio

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 02:12 PM PDT

10:10p ET Saturday, April 2, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Over at the Got Gold Report, Gene Arensberg reports that the gold/silver ratio has fallen to a 28-year low. He expects the ratio to continue toward the historic ratio of between 15 and 20 to 1, which would put silver between $71 and $95 per ounce. Arensberg also quotes approvingly the observations of Sprott Asset Management's Eric Sprott about how gold is too little owned to be in a "bubble." Arensberg's commentary is headlined "New 28-Year Lows for the Gold/Silver Ratio" and you can find it at the Got Gold Report here:

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/04/new-28-year-lows-for-the-gold-silve...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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The Gold Standard Now: It Can Work

Today a dollar is worth 80 percent less than it was 40 years ago, and less than 5 percent of its value a hundred years ago. We deserve a dollar that is as good as gold, a dollar that will hold its value from year to year so we can be financially secure and our economy can generate more and better jobs.

For most of America's history, our dollar was literally as good as gold. But on August 15, 1971, our politicians destroyed the link between gold and the dollar. They destroyed the foundations of our economic system.

A new Internet site, TheGoldStandardNow.org, provides news and cutting-edge analysis about this most important issue and explains how the gold standard worked in the past and how it can work in the future. Visit us today:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/about/137-welcome-newsmax


Join GATA here:

An Evening with Bill Murphy and James Turk
Sponsored by Deutsche Edelmetall-Gesellschaft
Friday, April 29, 2011
Hofbrauhaus, Munich, Germany

http://www.goldmoney.com/munich-2011-april-29.html

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture:
World-Class PGM Deposit in Yukon

Company Press Release, January 18, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy.

PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding.

Following the transaction:

-- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC.

-- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis.

-- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp.

-- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings.

Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000.

For the complete announcement, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php



Meet The 171 Banks For Which The Margin Of Failure Is One Thousand Dollars

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 01:53 PM PDT


At this point the majority of the population is transfixed by the biggest borrowers from the discount window. Yes, we know by now that the bulk of these were foreign banks, primarily Dexia and Depfa, but that is simply because only Bank Holding Companies, or depository institutions (and yes, last we checked Goldman deposit branches are still sorely missing), are allowed discount window access. Keep in mind that most banks were Investment Banks and not under the BHC umbrella until after the Lehman collapse. Which is why most banks only had access to the PDCF, which is how the Fed eliminated the loophole for emergency liquidity trickling down to everyone. The majority of US investment banks therefore accessed Fed rescue funding via the PDCF, of which JPMorgan and BofNY Mellon were intermediaries due to their position as the only two tri-party repo clearers and keymasters of the shadow banking mechanism. A quick glance at the PDCF confirms that all banks, pre their conversion to Bank Holdings Companies in the week following Lehman's failure, borrowed from the Fed, if not necessarily from the Discount Window (and yes, as Bob Ivry confirmed, Goldman did borrow directly from the Discount Window on at least five occasions post its "depository status" conversion despite Gary Cohn's perjury to the contrary even as Goldman repeatedly dipped in the PDCF both before and after Lehman's failure, even setting the precedent of first pledging defaulted bonds as collateral before any other solvent bank). Yet what we are more concerned by is not the mega borrowings: after all, it makes sense that if you need tens of billions you will go to the Fed. We are far more concerned by the banks for whom the marginal amount of cash was smallest. Below we present the 171 banks that had to access the Discount Window for the paltry sum of $1,000.00. That's right - these are the banks for whom the margin of failure is as low as one thousand dollars. Any readers who have cash deposited with these banks (many of whom have not yet been visited by the FDIC's Failure Friday phenomenon), are urged to immediately remove all funds and run, Forrest, run.

The banks in question:

1St Source Bk
Albany B&Tc Na
Alpha B&Tc
Ameriana Bk Sb
American Eagle Bk
American Nb
Ameristate Bk
Andrew Johnson Bk
Atlantic Coast Bk
Banco Popular N Amer
Bank Of Alpena
Bank Of Dudley
Bank Of Elmwood
Bank Of Fl Se
Bank Of Fl Sw
Bank Of Fl Tampa Bay
Bank Of Hiawassee
Bank Of Marin
Bank Of Miami Na
Bankeast
Bb&T Fncl Fsb
Belmont B&Tc
Benjamin Franklin Bk
Beverly B&Tc Na
Boone Cty Bk
Byron Bk
Capital One Bk Usa Na
Capital One Na
Cedar Rapids B&Tc
Centier Bk
Central Il Bk
Central St Bk
Chain Bridge Bk Na
Chesapeake Bk
Citizens & Farmers Bk
Citizens Bk
Citizens Cmrc Nb
Citizens Nb
Citizens St Bk
Clear Lake B&Tc
Coastal Cmrc Bk
Coastal Fcu
Columbus Cmnty Bk
Community B&Tc
Community Bk Of Tri-Cty
Community Cap Bk
Community First Bk
Communitysouth Bk And Tr
Connecticut Bk & Tr Co
Cornerstone Cmnty Bk
Csb Bk
Dnb First Na
Eaglebank
East Carolina Bk
Eastern Mi Bk
Elizabeth St Bk
Enterprise Nb Of Palm Beac
Enterprise Nb Of Palm Beach
Equitable Bk Ssb
Farmers St Bk
Fidelity Bk
Finance Fact
Finemark Nb&Tc
First Amer B&Tc
First Century Bk
First Century Bk Na
First Chatham Bk
First Cherokee St Bk
First City Bk Of Fl
First Cmnty Bk
First Dupage Bk
First Ga Cmnty Bk
First Nb Danville
First Nb Midwest
First Nb Of Brookfield
First Nb Of Chester Cty
First Nb Of Muscatine
First T&Sb
First Tr Bk
Firstbank Fs
Franklin Svg Bk
Frederick Cty Bk
Freedom Scty Bk
Frontier Bk
Gateway B&Tc
Gateway Bk Of Cent Fl
George D Warthen Bk
Glens Falls Nb&Tc
Grand B&Tc Of Fl
Great Eastern Bk Of Fl
Greeneville Fed Bk Fsb
Harborone Cu
Heritage Bk Central Il
Hinsdale B&Tc
Home Fed Bk Corp
Home S&Lc
Home Svg Bk
Howard Bk
Idaho Tr Nat Bk
Ing Bk Fsb
Integrity First Bk
Irwin Union Bk Fsb
Killbuck Svgs Bk Co
Kress Nb
La Porte Svg Bk
Lake Cmnty Bk
Lloyds Tsb Bk Plc Miami Agy
Main St Bk
Mansfield Co-Op Bk
Marine Bk
Marine Bk Springfield
Mcintosh St Bk
Merchants Bk Of Bangor
Meredith Village Svg Bk
Midcarolina Bk
Middleburg Bk
Millennium Bcpbank Na
Minster Bk
Mitsubishi Ufj Tr & Bkg Ny Br
Morris Bk
Mount Vernon Bk
Mountain Valley Cmnty Bk
Mutual Bk
National B&Tc Of Sycamore
National Bk Indianapolis
Nationwide Bk
Nbt Bk Na
New Frontier Bk
Norstates Bk
North Bk
North Shore Bk A Co-Op Bk
North Shore Bk Fsb
North Shore Cmnty B&Tc
Northmark Bk
Northpointe Bk
Northwest Cmnty Cu
Northwest Ga Bk
Orlando Fcu
Oxford B&T
Park Ave Bk
Patterson Bk
Peachtree Bk
Peoples' Bk Arlington Heights
Pioneer Bk
Pna Bk
Premier Bk
Rainier Pacific Svg Bk
Red River Bk
River Cities Bk
Sandy Spring Bk
Security Nb Of Omaha
Signature Bk
Smartbank
Southwest Ga Bk
Statewide Bk
Sterling Bk
Strategic Cap Bk
Tower B&Tc
Traverse City St Bk
Treynor St Bk
Union Fsb
United B&T
United B&Tc Na
Unity Nb
Village B&Tc
Warren Bk
Washington Tc
Waterstone Bk
Webster Bk Na
Wheaton B&Tc
Whitesville St Bk

For those wondering what the full borrowing histogram looks like by bucket, here it is, by key distributions, with the mode between $10,000,000 and $50,000,000. And on the top side, there were 3 distinct discount window borrowings for over $50 billion, the biggest of which was for $61 billion by, surprise, AIG, and the next two were for CPFF (Commercial Paper Funding Facility) in yet another SPV shell funding scheme.


MUDDLING TOWARDS COLLAPSE

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 12:50 PM PDT

John Mauldin is usually Mr. Muddle Through. He is one the more reasonable analysts out there. When he writes an article this negative, you should take notice. He is convinced that our debt bomb will explode by 2013. I'd have to agree with his timing. There is no way we make it to 2015 with [...]


Food Commodities Rise Seen Swamping Consumers With Inflation

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 12:28 PM PDT

Coffee, sugar and cocoa prices will rise five- to 10-fold by 2014 because of shortages that will mean consumers getting "swamped" by food-price inflation, according to Superfund Financial.

A lack of farmland and rising costs means growers will fail to keep up with demand, said Aaron Smith, managing director of Superfund Financial (Hong Kong) Ltd. and Superfund USA Inc. Commodities account for about 40 percent of Superfund's $1.25 billion assets under management. Smith correctly predicted record copper prices in November and a month later rightly anticipated that silver would outperform gold.

A United Nations index of world food prices jumped to a record last month, contributing to riots across northern Africa and the Middle East that already toppled leaders in Egypt and Tunisia. Global food security is threatened by "excessive price volatility and speculation," farm ministers from 48 countries said in a joint statement after meeting in Berlin in January.

"There's a tremendous shortage of food, there's a tremendous shortage of arable land," Smith said in interview in London. "Any kind of food products are going to increase."

More Here..


60 Minutes | Foreclosure Fraud Featured this Sunday on 60 Minutes

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 12:19 PM PDT


Foreclosure Fraud Featured this Sunday on 60 Minutes

Spread the word everyone...

This is the one that we hope wakes up the American people. A group of us foreclosure fraud fighters, with my good friend Lynn Szymoniak leading the way, have been working with 60 minutes over the past few months to help them get this story together.

This (hopefully) explosive piece focuses on what we all have to come to know in foreclosure world. It will cover the robosigning scandal from LPS / DOCX and much much more.

The were even able to track down a DOCX robosigner for the story.

So stay tuned and watch the show this Sunday at 7pm on CBS

From the 60 minute website:

This Sunday on "60 Minutes"

The Next Housing Shock

As more and more Americans face mortgage foreclosure, banks' crucial ownership documents for the properties are often unclear and are sometimes even bogus - a condition that's causing lawsuits and hampering an already weak housing market. Scott Pelley reports.

Also from the report...

FDIC Chairman: Foreclosure clean-up fund needed

Sheila Bair says fund is needed to stem tide of lawsuits caused by bad mortgage paperwork in foreclosure cases

CBS News) Banks so poorly handled documentation on millions of mortgages that many today cannot prove that they own the homes they want to foreclose on. The resulting rash of lawsuits from people seeking to save their homes has one of the government's top banking regulators worried that the torrent of litigation will delay the real estate market's recovery.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Sheila Bair tells Scott Pelley banks should be forced to contribute billions to a clean-up fund that will help stressed homeowners stay in their homes and stave off lawsuits - there are 30,000 already - that threaten the economic rebound. Pelley's report on this latest chapter in the incredible mortgage meltdown story will be broadcast on "60 Minutes" Sunday, April 3 at 7 p.m. ET/PT.

Like last year, banks are expected to foreclose on a million mortgages this year, a scenario that could generate more lawsuits over mismanaged paperwork. "I think that this litigation could easily get out of control," says Bair. "...We're already feeling like we're falling behind it," She thinks a large clean-up pool funded by the banks that would pay homeowners to accept a bank's ownership claim without a lawsuit is necessary. "I would assume it would be billions [that the fund would need]," Bair tells Pelley.

More here...

On an other interesting note, which I am sure is totally unrelated to the 60 Minutes report, Lender Processing Services 8K Filing from 03/31/11

Item 5.02. Departure of Directors or Certain Officers

On March 31, 2011, Lender Processing Services, Inc.'s (the "Company") Board of Directors determined that its businesses would be best served by consolidating the management of its operating divisions and business units under one chief operating officer in order to promote a more cohesive operational direction and strategy. As a result, on March 31, 2011, the Board appointed Daniel T. Scheuble as the Company's sole Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, and Eric D. Swenson ceased to serve as Executive Vice President and Co-Chief Operating Officer. Mr. Swenson will depart the Company on April 30, 2011.

Well, at least LPS hasn't disseminated propaganda or infiltrated our government, so there may be some arrests forthcoming. /sarcasm...

The Devil is in the Details – Introducing LPS Government Solutions

 

www.4closureFraud.org


King World News interviews Davies, Turk, Haynes, and Norcini

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 10:40 AM PDT

6p ET Saturday, April 2, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Interviewed this week by King World News, Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies examines the harm done by price controls and argues that the biggest price controllers are central banks, whose manipulation of interest rates distorts all markets along with the money market. The silver market, Davies adds, long has been under a system of price control. The interview is 16 minutes long and you can listen to it at King World News here:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/4/2_KW...

Audio of this week's King World News interview with GoldMoney founder James Turk can be found here:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/4/2_Ja...

And the weekly precious metals market review with Bill Haynes of CMI Gold and Silver and market analyst Dan Norcini can be heard here:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/4/2_Be...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture:
World-Class PGM Deposit in Yukon

Company Press Release, January 18, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy.

PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding.

Following the transaction:

-- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC.

-- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis.

-- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp.

-- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings.

Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000.

For the complete announcement, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php



Join GATA here:

An Evening with Bill Murphy and James Turk
Sponsored by Deutsche Edelmetall-Gesellschaft
Friday, April 29, 2011
Hofbrauhaus, Munich, Germany

http://www.goldmoney.com/munich-2011-april-29.html

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:
http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



TaKaSHi UeSuGi: AN ANGRY JaPaNeSe JouRNaLiST

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 08:00 AM PDT


FROM TIME OUT TOKYO

In the immediate aftermath of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, the Japanese media stayed remarkably calm. While overseas news outlets fretted about nuclear meltdown and terrified expats stranded in a 'City of Ghosts', their Japanese counterparts generally hewed closer to the official line: stay calm, go about your business as usual. And, yes, you can still drink the tap water.

But that was only part of the picture. While the mainstream media presented a reasonably united front, a group of freelance and internet journalists were openly dissatisfied with the explanations being given at Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s seemingly endless stream of press conferences. Why wasn't the company mentioning levels of plutonium around the stricken Fukushima Daiichi power plant? What had happened to TEPCO's president, Masataka Shimizu – last seen on March 13?

One of the most influential members of this group of dissenters is Takashi Uesugi, a former New York Times journalist and, in an earlier incarnation, aide to Liberal Democratic Party bigwig Kunio Hatoyama. The author of books including The Collapse of Journalism, Uesugi is a vociferous critic of Japan's 'Kisha Club' system – a network of exclusive press clubs that, he says, nurtures excessively close relationships between reporters and the organisations they are supposed to cover.

Gadfly to some, hero to others, Uesugi is a much-sought commentator. He makes weekly appearances on Tokyo FM and Asahi Newstar, and is a regular contributor to the Diamond Weekly business website, along with various weekly tabloids. However, he's most prolific on his own website and via Twitter, where he commands a following of 177,000 and counting. One place place he won't be appearing any more is TBS Radio, who booted Uesugi from his regular weekly guest slot this month (more on that later).

Time Out caught up with Uesugi last Monday, during a brief lull between press conferences at the TEPCO head office in Shimbashi. We'd gone expecting to have a nice chat about tweets and microsieverts, but smalltalk apparently wasn't an option. What followed was a eye-opening, if occasionally paranoid tirade against TEPCO, the government and the mass media, delivered in rapid-fire Japanese.

 

Here is the link to the full interview: Takashi Uesugi

I have sent a communication to Mr. Uesugi offering to republish on Zero Hedge any reports that he would like to see published outside of Japan.

Remember who told you they were lying from the very beginning ;-)

WB7


New 28 Year Lows for the Gold Silver Ratio

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 07:17 AM PDT

HOUSTON -- With gold still unable to punch through its $1,440s resistance, but with silver simmering just pennies under its $38 lid, the gold/silver ratio (GSR) has fallen to a fresh new bull market low. Sporting a now 37-handle, meaning that it takes about 37 and change ounces of silver to "buy" an ounce of gold metal, the GSR just put in its lowest weekly close in 28 years as shown in the chart just below. ...


Update on Japan's Nuclear Crisis

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 06:49 AM PDT


The situation at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex is getting worse in many ways, but better in same ways. Here's a quick roundup.

Reactor 1

Energy Secretary Steven Chu said that roughly 70 percent of the core of reactor number 1 suffered severe damage. In other words, it came very close to a total meltdown. But things appear now to be stabilizing:

Mr. Chu, a Nobel laureate in physics, suggested that the worst moments of the crisis appeared to be receding, saying that the best information the United States had received from the Japanese authorities indicated that water was once again covering the cores of the stricken reactors and that pools of spent fuel atop the reactor buildings were "now under control."

Reactor 2

Tepco announced that there is a crack in the concrete pit of reactor number 2 that is leaking radiation into the ocean from a crippled reactor:

Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) said it had found a crack in the pit at its No.2 reactor in Fukushima, generating readings 1,000 millisieverts of radiation per hour in the air inside the pit.

Reuters noted that workers were attempting to plug the crack with concrete, but were facing challenges:

Public broadcaster NHK said late on Saturday that water was preventing the concrete from hardening and the pit was still leaking.

Reactor 3

As previously noted, CNN reported:

Authorities in Japan raised the prospect Friday of a likely breach in the all-important containment vessel of the No. 3 reactor at the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, a potentially ominous development in the race to prevent a large-scale release of radiation.
The New York Times pointed out:
A senior nuclear executive who insisted on anonymity but has broad contacts in Japan said that there was a long vertical crack running down the side of the reactor vessel itself. The crack runs down below the water level in the reactor and has been leaking fluids and gases, he said.

***

"There is a definite, definite crack in the vessel — it's up and down and it's large," he said. "The problem with cracks is they do not get smaller."

And NHK notes that a giant crane fell over and probably crushed spent fuel rods at in Fukushima reactor number 3, which contain a plutonium-uranium mix:

(starting around 1:40 into video).

Reactor 4

Nuclear engineer Arnie Gundersen notes that the spent fuel rods in reactor number 4 have water, and the rods are exposed:

Aerial Views of the Destruction

As can be seen from the following aerial photograph, there is severe damage at several of the reactors (click the images for larger, high-res versions):

Chris Martenson shows where reactors 1 through 4 are located: Other Developments

Localized nuclear reactions ("re-criticalities") have re-started at Fukushima causing "blue flashes" above the plant:

There is no indication that widespread nuclear reactions will re-start. Greenpeace has measured very high levels of radiation some 40 killometers from Fukushima:


The Best of the Bozeman Police Reports

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 06:11 AM PDT

Culled from the Police Reports page of the Bozeman Daily Chronicle are the best of the Bozeman police reports from the last week along with some items from the Sheriff's Office.

It hit 60 degrees the other day and everyone's got spring fever, but the local ski area will still be open for another two weeks, though snow conditions are likely to deteriorate quickly in the days ahead. It may not come as much of a surprise to regular readers of these Saturday offerings, but Bozeman was recently ranked the fifth drunkest town in the nation while, at the same time, ranked the healthiest county in the state.

While the college has a lot to do with both of those surveys (it makes up nearly half the population), other factors are involved, not the least of which are lenient drunk driving laws and this AP story Montana lawmaker's speech perpetuates boozy image goes a long way in explaining how those laws came to be. Without any further ado…

  • Someone dumped half a dozen deer carcasses on a man's property on North Seventh Avenue overnight.
  • A 54-year-old man was arrested for driving under the influence after crashing into a snow bank on Gold Avenue and getting stuck around 7:30 p.m.
  • A resident of Concord Drive awoke in the morning to find "I will kill again" written in ketchup on the sidewalk in front of his house.
  • A school bus driver reported a driver in a small passenger car passing the bus on the right side as children were getting off on Bridger Drive around 6:30 p.m.

  • Several motorists on Big Sky Spur Road reported an injured big horn ram near the road around 5 p.m.
  • Deputies searched for and found a vehicle, driver and dog that had been involved in an accident near mile marker 5 on Bridger Canyon Road. The vehicle had gone off the road, down a steep 80-foot embankment and landed on its roof. The female driver was wearing a seatbelt and was uninjured, but quite cold. She was held for a drunken-driving investigation.
  • A woman wanted to know how to handle a juvenile who repeatedly eggs her house.
  • A property owner reported that a group of men had broken a tree in his front yard and then fled on foot. The property owner chased the men, caught one of them, and told him he needed to stay and deal with the police. The man argued, took the property owner to the ground, and ran away.
  • A parent had questions about what could be done about her son receiving messages "using the 'F' word" as part of a live computer game.
  • A deputy stopped a heavily intoxicated man who was stumbling down a street in Manhattan around 2 a.m. and gave him a ride home.
  • A woman thought she smelled an electrical fire at her home on Wagonwheel Road around 12:45 a.m. The odor turned out to be from a plastic salad container on the stove.
  • A man reportedly driving a four-wheeler near Penwell Bridge Road and Springhill Road was also carrying a shotgun and shooting in the area, possibly at gophers. Deputies were unable to locate him.
  • A man was reportedly throwing dog feces onto Boxwood Drive. Deputies issued the man a warning.
  • At 12:30 a.m. a caller on Monroe Street reported that two very intoxicated people were talking loudly outside her window. They were messing around and falling down in the snow. When officers arrived, the two people had already left.
  • Just before 2 a.m. a driver was stopped for traveling the wrong direction on 19th Avenue. The 63-year-old driver was found to be intoxicated and was arrested.
  • A bloody butcher's knife in a plastic sheath was found on the corner of College Street and Third Avenue at 6 p.m. The person who found the knife suspected the blood was fake because it was bright red.
  • The driver of a vehicle involved in a crash on Big Sky Spur Road became combative and was trying to break the patrol car's windows while being transported to Bozeman by deputies just before 2 a.m.
  • An officer saw one of three men walking on North Rouse Avenue around midnight toss a backpack around a building when they saw the officer's cruiser. The three Bozeman men, two 19 and one 18, admitted to have been drinking and had several unopened beers in the pack. They were cited for being minors in possession of alcohol.
  • Several four-wheelers were racing up and down Bulltail Road. A resident along the road was upset because they have to pay "dearly" to get the road graded.


A Visual Presentation Of What Happens To The Market During Rising Interest Rate Cycles

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 03:58 AM PDT


While it is no surprise that there is nothing in this world that can derail the optimism of Goldman's David Kostin (GS S&P 2011 target 1,500 until Jan Hatzius and his double Bill Dudley say otherwise), in his latest Weekly Kickstart he does provide a useful visual analysis of what happens in a period of rising interest rate cycles. Of course, this is only to create the illusion that rates are indeed set to rise: as we indicated said illusion was roughly two times stronger this time last year when the market once again didn't remember what a downtick looked like, and yet it all turned out to be a function of QE1, which upon ending on March 31 caused a correction, and QE2 a few months later. We wonder how many professional investors actually are naive enough to equate constant pumping of billions of dollars into the market by the Fed with economic improvement. But while we will get our answer in the next several weeks, here are the key signs to look for in the latter part of the interest rate cycle.

The first chart looks at what happens when rates are rising. What is stunning is that the last time we had the commencement of a real interest rate rise was back in 2004. And even that ended up to be far too late to make an impact. Not to mention that all such hikes were in a period of lower lows. Too bad we can't go much below zero (thank you ZIRP).

The next table looks at sector and general market returns X months into a tightening period. For those who buy that much can be gleaned from IR analysis during the great 30 year moderation, the best sector to buy would be IT and Materials.

Then again, since the IT sector return is massively skewed due to the 32% performance from the 1998 dot com bubble, perhaps it is best to avoid it...

The most useless chart of all is the expectation for the Fed Funds rate by Goldman and consensus. In a year we will all be laughing about this one.

Next, for those who care, here is Kostin's traditionally permabullish commentary:

The news flow during 1Q 2011 was anything but market-friendly. But a devastating and tragic earthquake and tsunami in Japan, political upheaval across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and absence of agreement on fiscal issues in Europe and the US could not shake the bull market.

S&P 500 rose 5.4% during 1Q and ended at 1326, in-line with our forecast. Our year-end 2011 target remains 1500 reflecting a potential prospective nine-month price gain of 13%. If achieved, the 2011 price return would be 19% and rank 0.6 standard deviations above the average annual return since 1928. Despite the resilient market, investors remain uneasy and list various macro and micro headwinds to further index advances.

Foremost among the concerns expressed by equity fund managers during our recent meetings is the risk of higher interest rates. Bears argue that $600 billion of planned Fed bond purchases under QE2, if they end as scheduled in June, will cause long-term interest rates to rise and spark a sell-off in US equities. Investors also fear rising US inflation data and forward-looking inflation expectations will prompt the Fed to raise shortterm interest rates before year-end. Our Global ECS Commodities research colleagues note the risk of substantially higher energy prices, upside risk to gold prices, and a tight inventory situation across the major grains, with soybeans and corn particularly susceptible to upside spikes. During the past week several regional Federal Reserve bank presidents publicly discussed policy tightening, stoking investor concern about how stocks will perform when the Fed eventually begins removing liquidity (see US Daily: Fedspeak – Sharpening the differences, March 29, 2011). Finally, the ECB is widely expected to hike interest rates on April 7th, which will also draw investors’ focus to the timing of the Fed’s exit.

However, Goldman Sachs US Economics forecasts Fed Funds will remain unchanged at 0%-25bp through 2011 (and likely 2012 as well) and ten-year interest rates will drift slightly higher from 3.5% currently to 3.75% by year-end 2011 and 4.25% by year-end 2012.

From a US portfolio strategy perspective we are interested in how domestic stocks might trade when interest rates begin to rise. We analyzed seven episodes of rising US interest rates since 1975 (see Exhibit 1). The timing of the interest rate increases was consistent across the maturity spectrum (Fed Funds, 2-year, and 10-year notes). The median return of the S&P 500 was positive during the 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month periods  after interest rates began to rise (see Exhibit 2).

Early stages of interest rate cycles typically favor cyclical equities. Since 1975 the first several months of a rising interest cycle have witnessed cyclical sectors outperforming defensives. In fact, the cyclical sectors of Information Technology, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Energy all outpaced the S&P 500 during the first three months of at least four and as many as six of the seven periods of rising interest rates since 1975. In contrast, Telecom, Utilities, Financials and Health Care beat the market on only a few occasions as rates began to rise. Note that Consumer Staples lagged the S&P 500 during the first three months of all  seven episodes (see Exhibit 3).

Information Technology has the best track record of outperforming the S&P 500 during the first one and three-month periods when interest rates begin to rise. Intuitively, the market interprets higher rates as evidence of stronger growth and rewards sectors such as Information technology that are most exposed to business expansion. Conversely, Utilities and Telecom consistently underperform the market during these periods. The yield-oriented aspects of these sectors make them less appealing to investors during a rising interest rate environment.

Energy has consistently underperformed immediately following a rise in interest rates. Energy lagged the market in the first month of the rate cycle in the last six episodes. Our previous ISM business cycle analysis showed Energy to be a late cycle outperformer vs. the S&P 500. Since our sample of rate increases typically occurred during the early and middle stages of the ISM cycle it is not surprising to see a back-test show the sector lags when interest rates begin to rise. Simple historical precedent suggests risk exists to our current Overweight recommendation in Energy. However, the potential for much higher oil prices highlighted by our colleagues in commodities research supports our overweight posture.

Financials are of particular interest in the current cycle. Our analysts believe higher interest rates and a steeper yield curve represent positives for the sector assuming economic growth is not derailed.

The longer-term pattern of sector performance during rising interest rate environments is less consistent and appears to depend on the source of higher interest rates (inflation vs. growth). The S&P 500 index rose over the course of the entire tightening cycles but sector performance was differentiated based on core inflation. Defensive sectors led the market when both interest rates and inflation rose while cyclical equities outperformed when rates rose without an inflation impulse.

Kostin's full presentation:

 

Charts That Matter 3.31


Peter Schiff on jobs, rates and faux counterfeiters – watch the second vid – and then buy MORE SILVER

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 03:17 AM PDT

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Silver Very Overbought

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 03:13 AM PDT

Silver is very overbought and this fact coupled with the dramatic spike in the silver gold ratio would normally be expected to lead to a significant reaction by both gold and silver, as usually happened following such a situation in the past, but these are not normal times. On its 2-year chart we can see how silver has been romping ahead since it broke out last August and following its latest upleg had become critically overbought by early March, but only a minor reaction followed.


Gold Real Money in a World of Fiat Currency

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 03:02 AM PDT

Since the Masters of the System have decided to arbitrarily "move the goalposts" to suit themselves by printing money in unlimited quantities, fixing interest rates at artificially low levels, and backstopping the bond market etc, it is incumbent on us as investors to find a fixed point of reference and safe anchorage, the better to weather the financial storms that their crassly irresponsible policies are bringing upon us. That fixed point of reference is gold. As gold is real money it is aloof from the mess and mayhem that now exists in the world of fiat and which is rapidly getting worse - and here it is necessary to make a crucially important point, which is that at this time in world history you have to completely reorder your thinking with respect with gold.


Price controls, cartels, and the collapse of price discovery

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 02:46 AM PDT

Ben Davies – Gold Will Advance $400 on Price Discovery podcast: Eric King talks to Ben Davies Share this:


Gold, silver coins now officially legal tender in Utah

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 02:45 AM PDT

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver All was quiet in the gold market on Friday until the jobs numbers came out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time yesterday...then gold got hit for over twenty bucks. Gold's low price of the day came at the London p.m. gold fix minutes before 10:00 a.m. in New York...and that was the dollar's exact low tick as well. Coincidence? Not likely. The gold price recovered from that point, but still closed the day down $2.90 from Thursday. Silver's fate was a carbon copy of gold's...but it managed to close sixteen cents higher than Thursday. It's been a long while since the bullion banks reacted to the jobs report like this. In 'olden days' it would normally take days or weeks for the price to recover from these sorts of shenanigans...but this time it took less than a day...as the buyers showed up as soon as the selling stopped. The jobs report set off a half-hearted rally in the dollar that came to an end at the London p.m. gold fix. From there,...


The King's Speech: Will It Mark The Top in Stocks?

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 02:37 AM PDT


Next week is bound to be a doozy.  The SPY and NYA are sitting just under their highs, and The Bernank is scheduled to give his post-FOMC "King's Speech" on April 27. What are the odds that the market is going to have a significant correction going into this speech?  At the same time, thousands of hedge fund managers who stepped aside during the recent correction will be forced to get back in to stocks if they take out new highs.  After all, the desperation is reaching March Madness levels to "make your year" so they can temporarily "retire" at The Hamptons for the summer.

Odds are high that we could have a buying frenzy into the FOMC, and perhaps the day after we could mark a top with a short-covering buying orgy.  Because if there is any adverse intraday market action during the FOMC announcement, Ben typically pulls his levers the following day to goose the ES futures in his typical "in your face" fashion.

You can imagine the hoopla surrounding this "speech", or press conference, whatever you want to call it.  I wonder if Cramer will be moderating?

Ags Nightmare over at Wall St. Examiner has an excellent piece on this idea.

Absolutely hilarious!

http://takemystockplease.com/?p=1200

Why is Ben Bernanke "The King"?

Because he has singlehandedly pulled off one of the greatest bull rallies of all time, during a time when the economic fundamentals have been absolutely horrid, and the world is getting hit by one disaster after another.

Seems like every day, we hear from the "experts" about how the market is overbought, it has gone up too many weeks and months in a row, and a massive bear market implosion is right around the corner.

Even the technical traders like Tom O'Brien over at TFNN.com have been calling tops virtually every day for the last 6 months, making up a myriad number of excuses as to why the market is going to crack the very next day, commodities are going to crash, and the U.S. Dollar is about to embark on a vicious rally.

Poor Tom seems to be so convinced, he is starting to believe that he can force the market into submission by sheer force of will.  The last couple of weeks, he sounds like he has chugged a 40 oz. can of Red Bull before he does his broadcast.  He's getting more hysterical as the market grinds higher and higher.

You can hear his latest rant on Friday here:

http://www.tigeruniversity.com/mp3/TOS040111.mp3

I seem to be more and more convinced that we must be entering some type of blowoff phase, as I look at several charts which, quite simply, are eye-popping.

There must be thousands of fund managers who look at these charts, kicking themselves, wondering how they could have missed out on one of the most astounding stock market rallies of all time.

And none of it would have been possible without the expert engineering by The Bernank, who also must be looking at the same charts, and high fiving with the rest of the staff at the Fed.

And no doubt, every other central banker on the planet must also be looking at the same charts, knowing that in the event that there is a financial convulsion somewhere, they will copy Ben Bernanke's move, and try to pull off the same feat.

Right now, according to the official statistics, which are constantly regurgitated by Bob Brinker on his radio show, the inflation rate according to the TIPS spread is a paltry 2.9%.

And until this "official" inflation rate passes 6%, people are going to continue to heap praise upon "The King", even if gasoline is $7/gallon by the end of the year.

After all, who cares if your monthly gasoline bill doubles, if your stock portfolio full of mo-mo stocks has gone up 300% - 600% in two years?

And on top of that, the stocks that have gone up the fastest have been travel, leisure, mattresses, rental car companies, internet stocks, etc.

Who says the same bubbles cannot be blown up over and over again?

Once again, The Bernank has done the impossible.  Blow up bubbles in the exact same sectors that caused all the previous market crashes.

Any wonder why he is "The King"???

Of course, this would have been impossible without the FemBots cracking the whip at all the 19-year old crack pipe traders at the big funds, trained to follow momentum and nothing else.

When will this run stop?  Nobody knows.  Just have to wait for the market to run out of gas and reverse.  Maybe Monday?  Maybe in three weeks?  Who knows?

There is no single adjective that can describe the size and scope of these runs....

"Stunning"

"Extraordinary"

"Eye-Popping"


Gold Market Update

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 02:30 AM PDT

Since the Masters of the System have decided to arbitrarily "move the goalposts" to suit themselves by printing money in unlimited quantities, fixing interest rates at artificially low levels, and backstopping the bond market etc, it is ...

Read More...


Silver Market Update

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 02:29 AM PDT

Silver is very overbought and this fact coupled with the dramatic spike in the silver gold ratio would normally be expected to lead to a significant reaction by both gold and silver, as usually happened following such a situation ...

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JPM Stock Price expressed in Oz’s of Silver

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 02:12 AM PDT

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The Best of the Week

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 01:00 AM PDT

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Welcome to the weekend edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch, a compilation of our favorite stories from the week for the time-stressed readers.

Dear Reader,

Welcome to the weekend edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch, a compilation of our favorite stories from the week for the time-stressed readers.

Of course, if you want to read all of the Daily Dispatches from the week, you may do so in the archives at CaseyResearch.com.


One Step Ahead of Bernanke

By Vedran Vuk

On Friday, the Federal Reserve announced a new policy of holding four press briefings per year with Ben Bernanke. And what could be the reason for these briefings? Bloomberg notes:

Bernanke is trying to dispel concerns from investors, lawmakers and the public that the second round of so-called quantitative easing, or QE2, is inflationary and ineffective in spurring growth. He said last month that officials were weighing the benefits of greater transparency against the risk that remarks are "misinterpreted" and trigger "unnecessary volatility" in financial markets.

These new press releases may have been difficult to foresee – unless, of course, you're a Casey's Daily Dispatch subscriber.

I've copied below parts of my intro from last Tuesday– three days prior to the announcement. The intro discussed the Fed's next move, using words as a policy tool to manipulate the market. 

…[Federal Reserve] announcements can temporarily strengthen a currency without raising rates.Of course, this tool must be utilized sparingly. If not, the central bank may find itself in a "boy who cried wolf" situation when it actually does raise rates. If rate increases are unexpected, the market will react unfavorably. Hence, the Federal Reserve has some incentive to avoid habitual lying about future rate decisions.

However,the Fed may soon use this policy. Bernanke simply isn't ready to raise rates. Does anyone expect a rate hike a month after QEII ends? I strongly doubt it. Therefore Bernanke will use the tools available to him. Trichet over at the ECB has already beaten him to it. With Trichet's talk of raising rates and rising inflation, the euro continues to gain on the dollar despite the recent credit rating downgrades. Currently, one euro equals almost $1.42. 

But here's the problem. Trichet's fun will last only as long as Bernanke keeps his mouth shut, which I don't think will be for long. If the dollar weakens to the $1.45 and $1.50 range, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bernanke discussing inflation concerns and the possibility of higher rates. His sincerity should be highly questioned, but such an action would likely be enough for the dollar to regain a little ground.

The only question now is timing. Will Bernanke pull the trigger in response to a weak dollar, or will he save his ammunition for a post-QEII announcement? At some point, he's sure to use his words as a policy tool rather than raising rates, and it should fool a good many market participants. In next few months, Bernanke's language will likely see a transformation. However, it's no reason to believe that he's finally seen the light. Instead, the words will be a policy move in and of themselves…..

I hate to brag, but this prediction is a little harder to make than foreseeing an interest rate hike. Prior to Friday's announcement, I didn't see any other, similar analysis of this possible strategy.

Bernanke promises that these briefings won't attempt to shake the market, but this is part of the credibility issue. Bernanke can't actually move the market with his words if the market fully understands his motivations. If he really didn't want to move the market, Bernanke would just keep quiet.

It's understandable that the Fed desires to control the conversation on QEII. But this could be done through the usual PR means or through lesser governors. So, I'm not buying the innocent press briefing business. Also, isn't it a little late in the game to explain QEII to reporters? 

Now we'll have to see if the second part of my prediction is correct. I think that he'll focus heavily on inflation with some promise of a future rate hike. The first briefing will be on April 27; I'll report more on that date.


18 Days Later...

By The Casey Energy Team

Twelve days ago, uranium equities were in free fall. Five days after Japan's earthquake and tsunami, the leader of the uranium sector, Cameco (T.CCO), had lost 19% and would continue to drop all day to close almost 24% below its pre-Fukushima level. The price of uranium had fallen 27%. The world was suddenly full of nuclear physicists saying the reactors will blow, they won't blow, it isn't dangerous, but it could be deadly. Energy analysts were equally divergent: many proclaimed the end of the nuclear era, while others predicted a serious but short impact on the world's view of nuclear power.

Moving ahead another six days, it seems like little has changed. On deeper inspection, though, things are quite different. Most importantly, the potential for a major catastrophe has decreased significantly. The Japanese are sparing no effort in their battle against overheating nuclear fuel and are oh-so-slowly being rewarded: one by one, the reactors are being cooled and contained. Fukushima is far from stable but, compared to that first week, there is now some confidence that we have averted a calamitous meltdown.

As most of us now know, there are six nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. Three of those reactors – No. 4, 5 and 6 – were shut down when the earthquake hit, but the other three were in full operation. Reactors 1, 2 and 3 all turned themselves off when the ground started to shake, but then the tsunami wiped out the plant's back-up diesel generators, leaving all six reactors unable to circulate the vital cooling water.

The six reactors then took turns grabbing headlines. In the first few days, one spectacular hydrogen explosion after another blew apart the buildings housing reactors 1, 2 and 3. A fire broke out in the spent fuel pool of reactor 4. Insufficient water left the fuel rods in the first three reactors exposed for various periods. Then the spent fuel pools at 5 and 6 started to heat up. Observers keep seeing white smoke emerge from the buildings. Workers keep being pulled back from their tasks because of radiation spikes. No one really knows whether any of the all-important containment vessels that seal each reactor off from the world are damaged.

From the available information, here is how things stand right now.

Reactor 1: The best-off of the three reactors that were operational when the quake hit. The core of the reactor is damaged (there has been some core meltdown), but it appears the containment vessel is intact. Controlling the temperature and pressure has been difficult, but the reactor is now considered relatively stable.

Reactor 2: TEPCO believes the containment vessel around reactor 2 was breached in the hydrogen explosion that blew the building apart. The breach cannot be a large gash, however, because the vessel still maintains high pressures. The core is also damaged. Water carrying high-level radiation is leaking from the reactor, the radiation either coming from the breach or from damaged vents and valves on the reactor.

Reactor 3: Currently the most concerning reactor at the plant, as water with high levels of radiation has flooded the turbine building. As with reactor 2, the radiation is either coming from a breach in the containment vessel or from broken valves and vents. If there is a breach, it must be small as the containment vessel is still holding pressure. Reactor 3 is also the only reactor at the plant that feeds on a combination of plutonium and uranium, a fuel known as MOX, which is considered more dangerous because plutonium accumulates more easily in the body.

Reactors 4-6: All considered stable. The only concern is the spent fuel pool at reactor 4, which is very full and might be damaged. At present it is stable and cooling slowly, but the threat there has not yet passed.

TEPCO workers are now working between a rock and a hard place. They have to keep pumping water into the reactors to keep the fuel rods covered, but they also need to pump out and safely contain the contaminated water that is seeping out of reactors 2 and 3. On Monday, that radioactive water had found its way into deep trenches that run around reactors 1, 2 and 3 carrying pipes and wiring. To complicate things, the condenser and storage tanks that are usually used for contaminated water are almost full.

They have restored power to much of the facility, though not all of the cooling circuits have been restarted because of damage or inaccessibility. From here, TEPCO faces a protracted battle to dry out the plant, restore power completely, and cool the whole thing down. That final step will take time – spent fuel rods take years to cool.

Some 70,000 people have been evacuated from a 20 km radius, while another 130,000 living within the next 10 km have been encouraged to leave because the region will not return to normalcy anytime soon. Authorities in Fukushima prefecture have screened almost 90,000 people for radiation exposure; of those, 98 tested above safety limits, but all were cleared once they removed their clothes and washed. Elevated levels of radiation have turned up in raw milk and 11 types of vegetables, while seven locations are under drinking water restrictions (six only concern infants).

More generally, the earthquake and tsunami have left 660,000 households without water and 209,000 without power. A quarter of a million people are displaced or homeless. The death toll has now climbed above 10,000, with more than 17,400 still missing.

What does it mean for uranium?

After absolutely tanking for three days, the price of uranium leveled off and then started to rebound. Showing unexpected resiliency, the spot price of a pound of U3O8 climbed from a low of $49.99 back up to $60. Most uranium equities followed suit, regaining on average a third of what they lost during the crisis' early days.

These rebounds occurred despite a loud revival of anti-nuclear sentiments. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats lost power in an election in the country's richest state, Baden-Wuerttemberg, in large part because of her pro-nuclear power stance (which she reversed following Fukushima). China's nuclear power plans remain officially on hold. The public is scared, and rightfully so.

So why did uraniums rebound? Because the markets started responding to reason, rather than fear. Once a few days' time had reduced the likelihood of a total catastrophe by just a bit, the markets decided that (1) nuclear power is safer, healthier and cleaner than coal-based energy, which is the only real alternative for large-scale baseload power generation in the rapidly developing parts of the world, and (2) the world will come to realize (1).

Marin was interviewed on BNN a few days into the Fukushima disaster, and his forecast was almost spot on (check it out here). He said the sector would take a major beating, but once the possibility of disaster abated slightly, the markets would step in to support uranium because the fundamentals remain strong. Recovery back to pre-Fukushima days would take a long time.

That is essentially what happened, though to be honest, the initial rebound was bigger than we foresaw, reflecting a globe with a slightly more developed understanding of nuclear power than it had even ten years ago. Nevertheless, the next part of Marin's prognosis still holds. We do not think this is the start of a sustained climb in the uranium sector. Instead, we expect uranium prices and stocks to move sideways for some time. The world had become slightly more comfortable with nuclear power, but a scare like Fukushima will ignite a period of contemplation over safety standards for reactors and the use of nuclear power in general.

Much of the developed world – in particular Europe and the United States – will likely turn against nuclear power for a time. But the developed world barely matters when it comes to nuclear industry growth. It is the developing world that matters – 60 of the 65 reactors currently under construction are in the developing world, where governments are striving to connect millions of poor people to the electrical grid.

China alone is building 27 reactors, Russia is constructing 11, and India is building 5. Bulgaria, the Slovak Republic and Ukraine each have two reactors under construction. These countries need power, and they want to diversify their power sources as they build capacity, so they do not end up completely reliant on one commodity. Nuclear power figures prominently in their energy plans, and that will not change.

In addition, the nuclear industry's safety record is actually pretty good. This is only the third serious accident in more than 65 years of nuclear power. No one died at Three Mile Island and for now the cost of life at Fukushima is limited (five people have died, in the hydrogen explosions and in a crane accident). Chernobyl was certainly deadly, but it was human error, not a fault in the system, that was to blame there.

By contrast, thousands of people lose their lives every year in the fossil fuel industry, in coal mine accidents, oil rig explosions, drilling mishaps, pipeline blasts, refinery fires, and tanker accidents, not to mention from a raft of illnesses caused by smog and soot.

The uranium sector has been dealt a major setback, but at its core the sector is still very strong. Even in the G7 world, nuclear power figures prominently in clean-energy plans and, while those plans may now be slowed, they will return unless there is another major accident. Uranium demand will still outstrip supply in the long term.

As for our subscribers, they had already recouped the initial investments on all their uranium equities, so every uranium holding held no downside risk while still carrying upside potential. It's a formula we call "taking a Casey Free Ride" and – since we consider risk minimization the most important aspect of speculative investing – it's something we do a lot.

During the first week of the Fukushima crisis, we updated our Alert Service subscribers regularly, letting them know what was happening to uranium and why, and most importantly what they should do about it. We are happy with how we played the sector before and during this major event.

[For your chance to invest in blossoming energy stocks – from oil and gas to renewable energy sources – give Casey's Energy Opportunities a risk-free 3-month try. For only $39 per year, it's really a no-brainer considering the gains of 19.3% in one month… 39.9% in eight months… or 40.3% in 11 months that Marin and his team handed subscribers. Learn more here.]


Mortgage Modification Schemes Face Euthanasia

By Kevin Brekke

Recent moves in the House of Representatives to remove two taxpayer-funded crutches beneath America's housing market are headed for a showdown with the White House. The bills would end the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) and the Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP). The Obama administration has threatened to veto the bills if passed.

The assumptions and expectations held by bureaucrats and citizens alike are being challenged by the ongoing and deepening financial crisis. This is particularly true about two long-held and often-heard beliefs: that once a government program is enacted it will never die, and that house prices will always rise. The end of a thirty-year housing bubble has reduced to rubble the stone upon which the latter was etched. The same is rapidly occurring to the former.

Whether decades old or newly incarnated, debt, deficit spending and budget gaps at all levels of government are forcing legislators to evaluate the effectiveness of programs and terminating those that fail to show results. Such is the case with HAMP and NSP.

On March 2, 2011, a subcommittee of the House Financial Services Committee held a hearing on "Legislative Proposals to End Taxpayer Funding for Ineffective Foreclosure Mitigation Programs." Testifying at the hearing was Katie Jones, Housing Policy Analyst at the Congressional Research Service (CRS).

Her testimony was a straightforward data presentation, absent any analyses or conclusions drawn from the data. In her own words, "As is its policy, CRS takes no position on these legislative proposals or on the initiatives themselves." In Dragnet-speak, "Just the facts, ma'am." Let's take a quick look at both programs.

HAMP became active in March 2009. But like so many ill-conceived government giveaways, there's always room for more at the tax trough, and the program soon morphed into a multi-pronged monster. By October 2010, HAMP spawned six sub-programs: the Second Lien Modification Program (2MP); the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program (HAFA); the Home Affordable Unemployment Program (UP); the Principal Reduction Alternative (PRA); the FHA-HAMP; and the Agriculture Department's RD-HAMP.

So how did this steaming cauldron of acronym elixir perform?

The Treasury Department, which administers the program, and the White House, program cheerleader, prefer to focus on the program's "corral" rate, the number of new entrants herded into HAMP, a category they call "trial mods." We, however, will focus on the success rate.

When the program was first announced by the president, it was claimed that HAMP would help three to four million Americans keep their homes. Here are the actual results since the program's launch through December 31, 2010:

- 2,867,420 delinquent loans were identified as HAMP eligible.
- 1,751,883 trial plans where offered.
- 1,493,107 trial mods started.
- 607,607 permanent mods started.
- 539,493 active permanent mods.

That's a rate of conversion from those entering the program at the trial stage into an active permanent modification of 36.1%.

But before we get too excited, the Treasury Department reports that "about" 20% of permanent HAMP modifications are again 60+ days behind on their mortgages within twelve months after the modification was converted to permanent. A rate of recidivism like this is usually seen within a chaperoned population behind tall walls topped with razor wire.

This sad reality means the number of active permanent mods with mortgages that are current will drop to 431,594 in one year, a success rate of just 28.9%.

The NSA is an even bigger disaster. This program is intended to help stabilize communities by funding the purchase of foreclosed and abandoned properties by state and municipal governments for rehabilitation, clearance and demolition, and new construction.

According to Katie Jones' testimony, the program was allocated $3.9 billion of which $2.16 billion had been dispersed by February 7, 2011. Through January 13, 2011, 19,189 properties had been completed. Factoring in the three-week discrepancy in end dates, that is an average of $112,000 spent per property. Compare that to the median price of $156,100 for a previously owned home sold in the U.S. Obviously, we are getting the best union labor and materials our tax money can buy.

These programs are scheduled to die by the end of 2012. However, the dismal success rate and high unit costs of these programs should condemn them to an early death. In both of these cases, we wholeheartedly endorse euthanasia.


Food Wars

By Doug Hornig

Lately, the mainstream media hasn't quite known where to fly its talking heads. First the turmoil rocking the Middle East is the story du jour. Then the crisis in Japan shoves that onto Page 2. Then, with the U.S. military involvement with Libya, it's back to the Middle East again.

That that region is coming unhinged is undeniable. But from the first, the media have focused their attention in the wrong direction, seemingly oblivious to the elephant in the room.

Yes, the people are restive. Yes, they're tired of vicious authoritarian rule. Yes, a few of them know enough to mouth the word democracy, though even fewer know what it means.

To say they are somehow yearning for "freedom," in any sense we would assign to the term, is mostly a projection on our part. Wishful thinking.

That makes the recent involvement in the Libyan civil war all the more problematical. Sure, Qaddafi is a mad tyrant, everyone knows that. The world would be a better place without him. But the fact of the matter is that we are backing a gang of "rebels" who are probably acting out tribal animosities that have been simmering for decades. We have no idea who they are nor whether, if they do replace Qaddafi, they will be an improvement.

Beyond that, all of President Obama's lofty words about moral and strategic necessity fail to address the most important root cause of all this revolutionary fervor: impoverishment. People will put up with all sorts of indignities, restraints upon their liberty, government oppressions, beatings, jailings, and so on. But when they can't afford to eat, you will have unrest.

That's the case in the Middle East. Back in late January, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, economist Nouriel Roubini warned that food prices posed a serious threat to global stability.

"What has happened in Tunisia," he said, "and is happening right now in Egypt, but also the riots in Morocco, Algeria, Pakistan, are related not only to high unemployment rates and to income and wealth inequality, but also to the ve


===== SILVER PRICES UNSTOPPABLE =====

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 12:09 AM PDT

Silver Shortages (Again!) ATTENTION SLA – LET’S PUSH TO GET SILVER PRICE ABOVE JPM’S CURRENT STOCK PRICE OF $46.35 – JPM HAS PLEDGED ITS OWN STOCK AS COLLATERAL AS PART OF THE NAKED SHORTS THEY HAVE ON SILVER – DRIVING THE PRICE OF SILVER ABOVE THEIR CURRENT STOCK PRICE WILL START TO MULTIPLE THEIR (FOR [...]


Bernanke shows his cards to the WSJ (again)

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 12:03 AM PDT


13 Fed officials have given us speeches over the past fortnight. We have heard various views. From Kocherlakota who suggested that interest rate should rise by the end of the year, to Dudley who made it pretty clear that he thinks it would be a mistake to back off the gas pedal anytime soon.

None of those speeches matter much. The only thing that counts is Bernanke. The Fed will end up doing what he wants. There is no true debate at the Fed. All the speeches are show ponies to demonstrate that there is open thinking at the Fed. I don’t believe a word of it. But I do believe when Jon Hilsenrath echoes Ben’s thinking. I believe the Ben/Jon duo was at work in this WSJ article today. The critical words from Ben’s lips: (link)

a $600 billion program of Treasury bond purchases known as quantitative easing looks likely to run its course as planned in June. This will effectively mean the Fed is moving to a neutral stance of no longer easing while not beginning to tighten policy.

Mark Ben’s, Jon’s and my words. This is what the future will bring us. QE will end in June. But the policy of ZIRP will be with us for a long time to come.

There are so many factors at play in the big capital markets these days. The Fed is just one element in the equation. But if you focused on just their effort you would have to conclude that the end of QE but never ending ZIRP will bring us the following:


-Long end yields are going higher. I think the Fed moves have set us up for a 5% long bond and a 4% 10-year. Long bonds are a sucker play when the Fed continues to pour on the gas.

-ZIRP is good for stocks. We shall see about this. One can’t deny that equities are a better place to be than in cash that has a negative return.

-The dollar is going to get crushed. The Yen is a wild card that is influenced today by the uncertainties of Fukushima. We could see more weakness there. But the rest of the currencies of the world are going to have to move higher. I see the Euro over 1.5 the Pound pushing 1.7 and the CHF at around 85 to the dollar. The C&A dollars will be a good place to hide as well.

-PMs have to move higher. We will maintain a policy of cheap money and dollar debasement. How could the metals not respond?

-Inflation is going to roar. The food and energy component of the puzzle that Bernanke refuses to consider is going straight up in my opinion. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the non-core CPI up by 5% by the end of the year. We could easily see $5 gas in six months.

I think this is an insane next step for monetary policy. We will all pay a very dear price for this. I think it is also insane to have monetary policy conducted through speeches, innuendo and newspaper leaks.


 


Ben Davies - Gold Will Advance $400 on Price Discovery

Posted: 02 Apr 2011 12:00 AM PDT

With gold and silver hovering near their recent highs, today King World News interviewed Ben Davies, CEO of Hinde Capital. When asked about a possible breakout in gold Ben stated, "The reasons why I believe there is potential for gold to catch up on the upside is that $1,440 level that we have talked about so many times on the show, I mean it's amazing how that has capped the market, and I said we have to get through $1,440. Once we are through that on a weekly closing basis we're going to get discovery which in my opinion can take the market up easily $400."


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