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- How the Japanese crisis could trigger a dollar meltdown
- A first look at the new Atlas Shrugged movie
- China TV: Gold demand going "through the roof"
- Last year's financial "reform" bill could soon have a huge, unintended consequence
- Muni bonds may fall into crisis yet...
- US Dollar
- Tuesday Options Recap
- Diverging Silver Spot and Equity Prices Call for Caution
- More on How Inflation Turns Merchants Into Con Artists
- Limits: Models, Governments and Central Banks
- IAMGOLD: Gold Stock With a Rare Earth Kicker
- Family Dollar Store: Earnings Preview
- New Foreign Bond ETNs for Germany, Italy and Japan
- Jim Sinclair: We are Way Over the Edge Already! Got Gold?
- Goldrunner: Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model vs. Gold's Performance: An Update
- Paging Blythe, SLV sivler call volume still not going away even at 31 year highs, paging Blythe
- Here’s Your Guide To Debunking Gold Bears
- Madd Maxx Keiser's "SIlver Liberation Army"
- <p>Is 'kooky' gold going mainstream?</p>
- Chinese TV Report: RAW GOLD SHORTAGE IN CHINA
- A rapidly-growing threat to your freedom you need to be aware of now
- These middle east nations are becoming major gold buyers
- Unbelievable chart shows just how worthless the dollar has become
- Disaggregated Gold and Silver COT
- Request for Comments/Questions
- Ignore The Gold Price Hype
- Silver Price Suppression: How, Why and Effect
| How the Japanese crisis could trigger a dollar meltdown Posted: 29 Mar 2011 08:12 AM PDT From SHTF Plan: With the disaster in Japan being far from over, the question of how Japan will finance their reconstruction efforts has, for the most part, stayed out of focus. According to reports, the damage is estimated in excess of $300 billion, nearly four times higher than hurricane Katrina. This number will likely rise the longer the nuclear crisis remains unresolved. Karl Denninger of Market Ticker says there are several problems facing the Japanese: The Tsunami did a tremendous amount of damage to the landscape and once they get that cleaned up they’re going to have to rebuild. And then you’ve got about 8 gigawatts of electrical generation that’s been taken offline and there’s no hope of restoring that anytime in the near future. So, the capital flows that have gone into Japan from exports are going to turn into capital flows going the other direction because Japan has to... Read full article... More on the U.S. dollar: The U.S. dollar could be in serious trouble How the dollar could bring down EVERYTHING These investment legends agree: A dollar collapse is "inevitable" |
| A first look at the new Atlas Shrugged movie Posted: 29 Mar 2011 08:03 AM PDT From Economic Policy Journal: Hollywoodland attended a Washington D.C. screening of Atlas Shrugged Part 1. Following the screening, they talked to producer Harmon Kaslow and several people who attended the event. Here's what they had to say... Read full article (with video)... More Cruxallaneous: "AARP is one big lie" The White House's secret plan for the dollar Stop eating this popular food if you want to live longer |
| China TV: Gold demand going "through the roof" Posted: 29 Mar 2011 07:58 AM PDT From Mineweb: It appears that Chinese gold demand continues to run at a very high level with fabricators reporting difficulty in obtaining sufficient supplies for their businesses. China's English Language TV station, part of state-owned CNTV, reports that gold demand is going 'through the roof,' despite the post Chinese New Year period usually being a slack one for gold sales and China itself nowadays being the World's top gold producer. One gold fabricator interviewed on the television programme reckoned his business has been increasing by 20% a month over the past two years, while the sellers noted that they were having to ration sales due to the gold shortages... Read full article... More on China: How China could highjack the gold market The real reason China is buying so much gold Two unbelievable ways China will change the world as we know it |
| Last year's financial "reform" bill could soon have a huge, unintended consequence Posted: 29 Mar 2011 07:54 AM PDT From OilPrice.com: The July 21 deadline for the hedge funds to register required by the one year anniversary of the Dodd-Frank Bill is fast approaching, and the industry is roiling with turmoil. The net result for the rest of us could be shrinking market liquidity and falling asset prices as hundreds of funds shut down or move overseas rather than meet the new, onerous disclosure requirements and the vastly increased legal liabilities they imply. The new regulations raise the level of disclosure virtually to the same level already demanded by your garden variety, plain vanilla mutual fund. Details will have to be released about assets under management, performance, strategy, risk management procedures, custody, brokerage relationships, soft dollar arrangements, commission discounts and kickbacks, fees, compensation of the managers, types of clients, conflicts of interest, and of course, their largest holding. All of this information must be provided in plain English, filed with the SEC, where it will be available online to the public. The filings will provide a treasure trove of information about... Read full article... More on hedge funds: A rare video interview with David Einhorn Market legend Druckenmiller is quitting the investment business The world's largest hedge fund is making a ton of money this year |
| Muni bonds may fall into crisis yet... Posted: 29 Mar 2011 07:48 AM PDT From The Daily Crux: For months, the financial media has been talking about a municipal bond meltdown, where states and cities across the country would default and send bond prices crashing. That hasn't happened... and as local governments tighten their belts, it's looking less likely to happen anytime soon. But munis have run into a different kind of trouble. All this talk of default has sent investors fleeing, causing the muni market to "freeze" up. There isn't demand for new bonds at current rates, so governments have had to cut back on issuing new bonds this year. If investors don't return to munis soon, interest rates will have to rise to intice new buyers... and that could kick off a new round of worries about defaults and bankrupticies. Read full article... More on muni bonds: Bond guru Gundlach: Muni bonds to plummet another 20%-plus Pimco's Gross: Meredith Whitney is dead wrong about a muni crisis Star analyst Whitney backs down from her call for massive municipal defaults |
| Posted: 29 Mar 2011 07:18 AM PDT |
| Posted: 29 Mar 2011 07:04 AM PDT Frederic Ruffy submits: Sentiment Stock market averages are holding gains on another slow news day Tuesday. Investors shrugged off the Conference Board's latest Consumer Confidence Index. The gauge fell to 63.4in March, from 72 in February and also below economist estimates of 65. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved higher in mid-morning trading despite the poor data. Beyond that, there wasn't much economic or earnings news to guide the action. Home Depot (HD) is the best gainer in the Dow on share buyback plans. AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) are also helping the industrial average for a second day following yesterday's analyst rating upgrade. In other markets, crude oil has erased early losses and is up 88 cents to $104.86 a barrel. Gold lost $2.90 to $1417 an ounce. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has added 78 points and the tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 22.5. Trading in the options market is very quiet for Complete Story » |
| Diverging Silver Spot and Equity Prices Call for Caution Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:55 AM PDT David Urban submits: Since its breakout in September of last year Silver has been on a tear - more than doubling from $18 per ounce to more than $37. In the last few weeks Silver has run into some headwinds, stalling its progress. As you can see from the chart below silver bullion is trading near the top of its range with prices breaking out to new highs, moving over $37 per ounce. (Click chart to expand) The top trend line is near the $38 per ounce area leaving little value for investors. Investors looking to go long silver bullion through ETFs should use caution at these levels. We may see a push through to $40 before a pullback takes place but long-term investors would be advised to exercise caution here as gold looks more attractive over the short-term time horizon. Add in the fall of the Canadian government and the Toronto Stock Complete Story » |
| More on How Inflation Turns Merchants Into Con Artists Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:55 AM PDT John Maynard Keynes once said of inflation:
Here's one of the "hidden forces of economic law" to which Keynes referred, courtesy of yesterday's New York Times:
Some thoughts:
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| Limits: Models, Governments and Central Banks Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:53 AM PDT David Merkel submits: Imagine for a moment that the U.S. government decided to end all taxation in order to "stimulate" the economy. "Wait," you might say, "The deficit is bad enough today, how can we let it get any worse?" A U.S. Treasury Department spokesman says, "Don't worry. As the government, our commercial paper financing captive subsidiary (the Fed) can issue overnight CP at zero percent infinitely/indefinitely." But after a little while of doing this, printing money to cover deficits, interest rates rise enough such that a broad coalition of those that need to borrow complain loud enough that the policies get reduced or reversed. A modern Paul Volcker shows up, blows cigar smoke in the faces of senators, and refuses to fund the U.S. government through loose monetary policy. But the government is still determined to run huge deficits, and calls upon the Treasury to float U.S. dollar-denominated debt. The market, unused Complete Story » |
| IAMGOLD: Gold Stock With a Rare Earth Kicker Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:52 AM PDT David Urban submits: IAMGOLD (IAG) is a mid-tier gold producer with geographically diversified operations in Africa, South America, and Canada, as well as a Niobium division. Niobium production comes from the Niobec mine in Quebec, which has been in operation since 1976. The Niobec mine is one of only three Niobium mines in the world continuing to produce high grades. Niobium is a mineral used in the manufacture of specialty steels like gas pipelines, jet engines, and superconductivity. For the fourth quarter of 2010, IAG recorded record attributable production of 315,000 ounces of gold at a cash cost of $574 per ounce. Attributable gold production for full year 2010 totaled 967,000 ounces at a cash cost of $574 per ounce. Revenues for 2010 increased to $1.167 billion, up 27.7% from $914 million a year ago. The bulk of the revenue gain came from an increase in gold prices, as production was only up Complete Story » |
| Family Dollar Store: Earnings Preview Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:10 AM PDT Zacks.com submits: Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO), the operator of the self-service retail discount store chain, is slated to report its second-quarter 2011 financial results before the bell on Wednesday, March 30, 2011. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter is 98 cents a share. For the quarter to be reported, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is $2,263 million. First-Quarter 2011, a Synopsis Family Dollar posted lower-than-expected first-quarter 2011 results. The quarterly earnings of 58 cents a share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 61 cents, but jumped 18.4% from 49 cents earned in the prior-year quarter due to healthy sales witnessed in the Consumables category. The company posted a 9.5% year-on-year increase in revenue to $1,996.9 million, which came ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,986 million, and reflects sales growth across Consumables (up 10.9%), Home Products (up 7.5%), Seasonal and Electronics (up 6.6%), and Apparel and Accessories Complete Story » |
| New Foreign Bond ETNs for Germany, Italy and Japan Posted: 29 Mar 2011 05:20 AM PDT Ron Rowland submits: On March 23, Invesco PowerShares and Deutsche Bank (DB) announced the first family of single-country sovereign debt ETNs: Six new ETNs that offer long exposure to German, Italian, and Japanese bonds. Each country has a unleveraged ETN as well as a 3x leveraged version. ETNs are senior unsecured debt obligations and are subject to the credit risk of Deutsche Bank AG, the issuer. Performance is linked to the month-over-month returns ("monthly reset") of the underlying futures indexes, minus fees and expenses. PowerShares DB German Bund Futures ETN (BUNL) and PowerShares DB 3x German Bund Futures ETN (BUNT) provide investors with unleveraged or 3x leveraged exposure to the U.S. dollar value of the returns of a German bond futures index. The underlying index attempts to measure the performance of a long position in Euro-Bund Futures of Federal Republic of Germany-government issued debt securities ("Bunds") with a remaining term of not less Complete Story » |
| Jim Sinclair: We are Way Over the Edge Already! Got Gold? Posted: 29 Mar 2011 05:10 AM PDT I wrote a piece recently called "Could America be Pushed over the Economic Edge?" about how Libya, Japan or even covert economic warfare from America's enemies could push the U.S. into another financial meltdown. I received a one sentence email from my friend Jim Sinclair that said, "We are way over the edge right now." His message gave me a sinking feeling. [Let me explain.] Words: 923 |
| Goldrunner: Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model vs. Gold's Performance: An Update Posted: 29 Mar 2011 05:10 AM PDT Martin Armstrong, considered to be one of the best - if not the best - market prognosticator in history, had maintained until recently that the price of gold would correct sideways to down into the next bottom of his Economic Confidence Model into June 13, 2011. In a new article that appears to be an apparent response to a recent editorial* I wrote he seems to have changed his position somewhat. Let me explain. Words: 1979 |
| Paging Blythe, SLV sivler call volume still not going away even at 31 year highs, paging Blythe Posted: 29 Mar 2011 04:39 AM PDT I'm back! Anyone wanting to drive into, visit, or even for that matter, have a mental image of Toronto should first proceed to try and commit suicide first before doing so. What a fuckin disaster. And I heard L.A. traffic is worse, wow. Look below, longs still accumulating, trading like its coiling up. A nice consolidation here. Tinka (TK.V / TKRFF) is now consolidating into the .57-.64 |
| Here’s Your Guide To Debunking Gold Bears Posted: 29 Mar 2011 03:51 AM PDT In this missive we reply to the supposed reasons against investing in Gold. Point: If you bought Gold in 1980, you were in the red for many years. In only two and a half months, Gold went from $400/oz to over $850/oz. Gold really began to takeoff in the second quarter of 1979 at a price of $250/oz. Some buying came in after Gold's initial crash as it rebounded from $500/oz to $750/oz. The point is Gold spent only nine months above $500/oz. The spike was extremely short-lived. Very few people bought in above $500/oz. Gold bears would have you believe "the public" came in at $800/oz. There wasn't enough time for that. The bubble itself was very quick and over within months. Point: Since 1980 stocks have outperformed Gold. Stocks for the long run! Ah yes. Pick an arbitrary date to make your point. How about 2000? 1965? The point is there is a time and season for every asset class. There is always a bull market somewhere. The objective is to find the major trends early and ride them. Investing in stocks in 2000 was a disastrous decision. By 2020, investing in Gold might be disastrous but certainly not now. Point: Gold is a bad inflation hedge. Look what happened in the 1980s and 1990s. Yes, we had inflation in the 1980s and 1990s. However, it was disinflation. Long-term inflation rates were coming down. Gold does well ahead of rising inflation or in periods of hyperinflation and deflation. If inflation is low and relatively stable then Gold will not perform well. Point: What if we have deflation? Deflation acts as a catalyst for Gold and gold shares. Gold held its value during 1929-1932 while the gold stocks bottomed in 1931 and outperformed for four years. Remember the deflation fears in 2002? Gold had a great run from there on. Sure the 2008 crash hurt but Gold and gold stocks were the first sectors to recover and make new highs. Growing worries of deflation would act as a catalyst for the sector. Remember, in a deflationary period cash is king. However, if all governments are highly indebted (as in now) then Gold also functions as cash. Point: We won't have rising inflation because banks won't lend and consumers won't spend. The economy is too weak. There is a difference between inflation and hyperinflation. Inflation is caused by monetary stimulus, bank lending and deficit spending whereas hyperinflation is quite different. In fact, it is a weak economy and deflation that causes hyperinflation in many countries. When a government can't borrow and tax revenues are falling, severe inflation is inevitable. Mind you, we aren't predicting this in the western world. However, when one looks at the US, Europe and Japan, it is impossible that these economies can grow their way out of the debt burden. Hence, they are periodically monetizing debt. Point: Interest rates will rise and that will support fiat currencies and crush Gold. Hello? The 1970s? I think that was a pretty good time for precious metals and terrible for Bonds. Western nations are so indebted (particularly the US and Japan) that they can't afford higher interest rates. We've written about this in the past. Higher interest rates will only exacerbate the problem and serve as a major catalyst for the bull market in hard assets. Point: Gold is a crowded trade and a bubble. First of all, ignore anyone who calls Gold a trade. It's a bull market not a trade. A trade makes it sound like it is a fad and aberration. Yes, there will be wild swings both ways but the global allocation to Gold and gold shares is 1%. Its estimated that the allocation to Gold and gold shares in pension funds is 0.3%. Does that sound like a bubble? Not even close. Good God, can you imagine if that figure went to 5%? Point: Gold is just a rock with no utility. Gold is money and has been throughout history. When governments and their finances are stable, Gold becomes valued as a commodity rather than a currency and its then when its utility is diminished. When government finances are unstable, Gold becomes the money of choice. Saying Gold is just a rock is really ignorant. Point: You can't eat Gold. I didn't know the US Dollar had any nutritional value Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT |
| Madd Maxx Keiser's "SIlver Liberation Army" Posted: 29 Mar 2011 03:19 AM PDT |
| <p>Is 'kooky' gold going mainstream?</p> Posted: 29 Mar 2011 02:50 AM PDT China is the latest country to go crazy on gold, but many investors still perceive the yellow metal as a kooky investment, Bill Bonner has the inside scoop. |
| Chinese TV Report: RAW GOLD SHORTAGE IN CHINA Posted: 29 Mar 2011 02:21 AM PDT |
| A rapidly-growing threat to your freedom you need to be aware of now Posted: 29 Mar 2011 01:11 AM PDT From Sovereign Man: ... On that note, I want to tell you about the biggest letdown of my weekend. I read an article in the New York Times about a man named Charlie Engle, 48, who was recently convicted, sentenced, and incarcerated in a federal prison for committing mortgage fraud – as a borrower! The IRS moved heaven and earth to find something, anything, to put this guy in jail. It succeeded. The government's star witness, a shady mortgage broker who himself had been convicted of fraud, asserted that Mr. Engle provided false information and overstated his income on a "stated income" liar loan application. Pot. Kettle. The jury didn't buy it and acquitted Mr. Engle on the charge of providing false information. Yet somehow, they still managed to find him guilty for mortgage fraud (which is based on providing false information). The doublethink is unparalleled… and exceptionally unfortunate. It's shocking to me how 12 Americans could side with the government and ruin this man's life. And I think it's a sign of things to come. This is one of the biggest reasons why I think it's important to build strong relationships – there is an overwhelming mass of people who are rapidly becoming a tremendous danger to freedom... Read full article... More Cruxallaneous: One of the surest ways to make money this year Rumors swirling: The U.S. gov't is planning to confiscate gold This could be the most important thing Porter Stansberry has ever written |
| These middle east nations are becoming major gold buyers Posted: 29 Mar 2011 01:04 AM PDT From Resource Investor: With gold threatening to break out to a new all-time high, and silver having already done so, some interesting facts are coming out about the precious metals market. It turns out, Iran has been a major buyer, with the Financial Times reporting that the rogue Islamic nation has bought 300 metric tonnes in recent years. The leadership of this terrorist state has made very public its disdain for the U.S. dollar, and it has been putting its money where its mouth is. We all knew emerging market central banks were... Read full article... More on gold: If you store your gold here, it could be at risk Porter Stansberry: What every American needs to know about gold WARNING: Traveling with gold just became much more dangerous |
| Unbelievable chart shows just how worthless the dollar has become Posted: 29 Mar 2011 01:02 AM PDT From MineFund: History speaks rather clearly about certain things... And purchasing power is one of them... For roughly 150 years after the Mint Act of 1792, by which Congress established and defined the nation's currency, the purchasing power of the dollar fluctuated in a relatively narrow range. At the end of World War II, the price level was close to... Read full article (with charts)... More on inflation: This could be the day the dollar falls apart Must-read: Ron Paul speaks out on soaring inflation A U.S. Congressman's realization: The U.S. economy is "a Ponzi scheme that will soon unravel" |
| Disaggregated Gold and Silver COT Posted: 29 Mar 2011 12:29 AM PDT As we move into the last few trading days and hours of the first quarter, traders seem to be in a mood to book profits. Both gold and silver are showing a light shade of red in the early going of this COT reporting cutoff Tuesday. Gold is trading below the $1,420s, an area that might have provided one line of support if the market for the yellow metal was robustly bullish. Silver is tracking with gold with the gold/silver ratio holding in with a 38-handle. ... |
| Request for Comments/Questions Posted: 28 Mar 2011 11:54 PM PDT I received the following comment from reader ER. The questions/comments are appropriate and I intend to respond within the next few days. In the meantime, please respond with your own comments/questions that pertain to the issues raised below. I shall try to write a post that deals with all of them. When will the dollar [...] |
| Posted: 28 Mar 2011 10:18 PM PDT |
| Silver Price Suppression: How, Why and Effect Posted: 28 Mar 2011 09:58 PM PDT |
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