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Friday, March 25, 2011

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Patience Vultures, Patience!

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 05:43 AM PDT

HOUSTON – If we seem scarcer than usual, we are. While bargains are few we are taking this opportunity to methodically go through the files and update checklists on most of the dozens of guru-favorites that have made it onto our chart radar screen. We are paring down the list in some cases, saying goodbye to some old, profitable friends, kicking a few laggards out on their backsides, while adding a precious few new faces to the list and reconnecting with the management of some of the "faves." All in an effort to be ready and confident when the time comes for what we think we do best, Vulture Bargain Hunting. Who can say when the next good Vulture Bargain Shopping Season will arrive, but one thing we can say is that it isn't now, with gold probing new all time nominal highs and silver tickling new bull 31-year highs. Our impression is that the metals will be well supported just ahead, so we might not get a chance to do any really fun bargain hunting right away. That's okay, we Vultures are amazingly patient birds. ...

Pan American Silver: Last Bargain in Silver Mining Sector

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 05:31 AM PDT

Mark Thomas submits:

The silver sector's momentum has taken on a life of its own now, and almost is in a mini-parabolic move higher. A parabolic move is when the rate of change higher begins to accelerate rapidly. It then starts to go higher so much faster that the uptrend becomes unstable and leads to an eventual crash.

We don't believe this is the final move higher for silver, and it is not the end of its bull market; however, you have to tread much more carefully in this kind of market. We really hoped this wouldn't have happened so fast, but greed and human nature are hard to change. We saw this coming as the March option expiration was arriving, as that is when there is maximum pressure on those who are short silver. We'll have to wait to see what happens with physical silver and the silver miners, but in the


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The Best Dividends in Restaurants

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 05:21 AM PDT

Jefferson Starship submits:

The last month has been pretty tough on investors. Analysts and "Cramericans" are quick to feel peachy about the market when things are going well, like most of the last two years. But when the market gets tested, as seen below, they lose their senses and predict the apocalypse.


(Click to enlarge)

As you can see the market totally sold off last May. I remember sitting in front of a Bloomberg screen during the infamous flash crash thinking my portfolio was ruined. This came two weeks after the BP (BP) disaster; on top of European countries defaulting like it was going out of fashion. The market did not recover until September. Then we had a tough November and everyone was worrying about unemployment and holiday sales and why gold has been killin' it. We've seen crazy volatility over the last month and a half as well. But this has been


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SLV Holdings Reach Record High

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 05:01 AM PDT

Tim Iacono submits:

The "tonnes


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The Lost Jesuit Gold of the Sierra Madre

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 04:30 AM PDT

bc Alter

Cutting Defense and Entitlement Spending Are Key to Recovery

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 04:03 AM PDT

Fred Fraenkel submits:

Investors are always trying to figure out what is important. Last week we needed to quickly determine the importance of the tragic events in Japan. Day to day we are trying to figure out just how important is the current massive upheaval in Middle Eastern politics. Sometimes we can't see the forest for the trees. Sometimes identifying the important issues are as easy as one, two, three.

Last week we opined that although the earthquake and tsunami had a devastating impact on life in Japan it would not be a huge hurdle for the world economy or the markets. There is still a risk that the nuclear meltdown situation is not under control and that even more devastating impacts will be felt there. However, the world is on to working around the Japan supply chain and focusing on how to supply needed goods and services to Japan for rebuilding.

We


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Selection of Gold Mines charts, monthly

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 03:00 AM PDT

Bill Cara

What can one expect to get from unloading war nickles???

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 02:59 AM PDT

A guy that I work with has several $$ FV in war nickles he is looking to unload so as to have FRNs to use on generic rounds and bars. I told him I would do some looking so that he would not go in blind. I already gave him the heads up that the sell prices he will most likely be offered will be deeply discounted and he was ok with that.

Anyhow, looking at Provident and APMEX I was able to see that they sell $2 rolls for about $84. However their sites did not give buy back prices to work with. I know that they are not the most desireable but what could you expect to get out of a $2 roll?? $50, $60 dollars?? Or is that just a pipe dream. At 2.25 oz per roll spot face is $84.

Thanks!!

Bears 5 - The Saga Continues in the Silver Story

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 02:49 AM PDT

typetext

Peoples Bank of China Positive on Gold due to ‘Value Preservation…

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 02:29 AM PDT


Twenty smart things to do with a tax refund

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 12:57 AM PDT

From Frugal Dad:

Tax refunds are sort of a forced savings account for many people. While it makes sense to adjust witholdings to minimize a tax refund, there are a number of useful things to do with one besides blow it on a new television.

1. Pay off high-interest credit-card debt. Eliminating credit card debt is one of the smartest ways to spend any windfall. The higher the interest rate on your debt, the bigger the payoff. Think about it: Where else can you get a guaranteed return of 22% on your money?

Read full article...

More on saving money:

Avoid these popular tax refund "deals"

The top reasons you should never buy a home

The world's best places to hide and store precious metals

Who reports the price of gold we see at the top of the page?

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 12:26 AM PDT

Obviously it doesn't adjust up and down every ten seconds based on what you or I are buying in the shop. Is this price based solely on what paper gold is trading for in the trading pits? How is that representative of anything going on in the real world?

Also, I heard one of those gold commercials on the radio talking about buying gold wholesale, and being willing to tell you the secret that the big gold retailers don't want you to know. Is there anyone here who is honestly paying big retail prices for an ounce of gold?

$US dollar catching a bid

Posted: 25 Mar 2011 12:15 AM PDT

I'm assuming this is going to test 76...so expect some PM weakness and manipulation today...

Fractional Gold Poll

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 11:48 PM PDT

I know none of us have an oz of gold, but if you did what form would you most like it to be in? And of course, why?

Gold is About to Take Off

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 10:45 PM PDT

Gold is About to Take Off
By: Robert McHugh | Thu, Mar 24, 2011
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Gold set a new closing high Wednesday, March 23rd, 2011 at 1,437 (after hitting an intraday high March 7th at 1,444), and Silver set a new multi-decade high both intraday, 37.36, and on a closing basis 37.33. We got a new buy signal in our HUI Mining Stocks key indicators, and added to our positions in these precious metals investments in our Conservative Portfolio Wednesday. We believe Gold, Silver and the HUI are about to start another powerful rally leg for several fundamental reasons, all supported by the technicals. World political unrest, uncertainties about future energy sources, the devaluation of the U.S. Dollar, and hyperinflation debasing fiat currencies, and pushing up energy and food will drive precious metals sharply higher over the next two years, a safehaven for savings and investment. Eventual (may take several years) upside targets are at least $3,000 in Gold and $70 in Silver. The HUI should benefit from the rise in these metals, however declining stocks will dampen the upside potential for the Mining stocks. The HUI's rise may only be half the rise in precious metals. We bought Gold in our Conservative Portfolio at 576.50 and Silver at 13.77 in 2006 and 2007, have held these positions, and have added to them periodically as the rally has unfolded. It is time to buy more, so we have.

It is also time to get real. The fact is, we are now in a housing market depression. Almost every economic recovery in this nation's history has been started part and parcel with a recovery in the housing industry. That is not happening at this time. Just the opposite, Housing is disintegrating into the Great Housing Depression. Check out these numbers: First of all, housing prices have fallen 26 percent since their peak a few years ago, the largest price decline ever in our nation, worse than what occurred during the Great Depression of the 1930's. We just learned this week that New Home Sales fell 17 percent month over month in February 2011 versus January 2011. The gross number of New Home Sales in February 2011 annualizes to 250,000, which is the worst on record, ever. This number is less than half the number of sales in 1963, which saw 560,000 New Home sales -- but with 120 million fewer people then than now live in the U.S. Think about that. February's number is abysmal. Families dependent upon the Housing Industry are headed for economic ruination. The construction industry is going to see a ton of small builders go belly up. When we consider the February 250,000 sales figure, we need to understand that 700,000 annual sales is normal for a healthy economy. Up to this point, the worst sales year ever still had 323,000 New Home sales. This February's figure is dreadful. Banks have tightened lending standards, making it so difficult to qualify for a mortgage that a third of all sales are now 100 percent cash deals. In other words, a third of all sales are occurring without a bank. Collateral values are sinking. Short sales are rising. Foreclosures are a predominant percentage of current sales. This is a spiraling black hole of coming economic devastation, a contagion that will spread throughout the entire economy (except of course the protected Wall Street folks, who get to enjoy the Fed's fraud on America, taking all the liquidity the Fed can print and trading markets with the printed cash for self-gain, a corruption right up there with Nero fiddling while Rome burned). Existing Home Sales were no better, falling 10 percent in February, with prices plunging on existing homes that get sold. All the above will contribute toward significant increases in the value of precious metals as folks flock to a financial instrument that has no counterparty, is real and physical, and not subject to corporate mismanagement.

There is so much debt being created globally, that it will never be paid back in currencies that presently exist. At some point, precious metals will have to back a new global currency at an exchange rate so high that debts in current fiat paper can be cancelled. In other words, the final solution will be to create a value for gold, perhaps by Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, or even G-20 Nation edict, at some ridiculous number, say $10,000 an ounce, backing a new currency at this exchange rate, then calling in all former currencies in exchange for a fraction of the new currency (similar to a reverse stock split) since former currencies will be essentially worthless. Under this scenario, debts are essentially repudiated, instead of paid back.

The point: Gold and Silver will rise sharply over the coming years. Today's prices will look cheap in hindsight. This should be a buy and forget about it investment.

HUI Gold Bugs Index

Gold

http://www.safehaven.com/article/203...ut-to-take-off

Gold Price: Short, Mid and Long-term Outlook

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 10:37 PM PDT

Gold hit a new all time high on March 24 when it closed at $1,447 per ounce in London. Gold is up 33% compared to March 2010 and 450% compared to March 2001. Silver hit a 31-year high, reaching $37.78 per ounce. Silver is up 127% from March 2010 and an unbelievable 770% from March 2001.

Do Irish Citizens Stiff Crooked Euro-Bankers Or Acquiesce?

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 09:20 PM PDT

"Irish Banks Seek to Delay `Evil Day' as Home-Loan Losses Rise."

"Perched on a chair overlooking a wood panel-lined room in Dublin's High Court, a bespectacled Judge Elizabeth Dunne has become all-too-used to hearing from the victims of Ireland's economic meltdown. Each Monday, Dunne presides over repossession hearings, with one in 10 Irish mortgages now in trouble. At the end of last year, more than 79,000 borrowers were behind on payments or, had loan terms altered due to "financial distress," the country's central bank said on February 28."

"Things are getting worse and worse," said Dunne, as she weighed the case of a couple about 114,000 Euros ($158,000) in arrears on a 558,938-Euro home loan, one of 74 cases on her list on March 7. "Putting off the evil day is not going to help."

"Irish mortgages account for more than a third of about 270 billion Euros of loans that remain with the nation's so-called viable lenders — Allied Irish Banks Plc (ALBK), Bank of Ireland Plc, Irish Life & Permanent Plc and EBS Building Society. The country's new coalition parties are not convinced "that there has been proper transparency or full disclosure by the banks" on home-loan impairments, Alan Shatter told RTE Radio on March 7, two days before his appointment as Minister for Justice."

"There has been a continual under-estimation of loan impairments in Irish banks over the past few years," Ray Kinsella, banking professor at the Smurfit Business School at University College Dublin, said by telephone. 'I am seriously concerned about mounting loan losses in their mortgage books.' The bad loans may be reassessed as early as this month when Ireland's central bank concludes a third round of stress tests on the country's lenders. Results will determine how much of a 35 billion-Euro international bailout fund Ireland will need to draw down.  "Ireland is suffering after a decade-long real estate boom collapsed in 2007. Already, the state has bought 72.3 billion Euros of risky commercial property loans from the banks, at an average discount of -58 percent. Irish house prices, which quadrupled in the decade to 2007, have since plunged more than a third. Unemployment has tripled to +13.5 percent over the same period."

"This year's tests may stress loan books against the unemployment rate rising to +16%, house prices falling -60% from their peak and "negligible" economic growth, said analysts including Jim Ryan and Michael Cummins of Glas Securities. The central bank declined to comment. More than 300,000 households, or about 40% of mortgages, may find their mortgages are worth more than their homes, so-called negative equity, before the property market bottoms out, said David Duffy, an economist, who estimates that house prices will fall by as much as half from peak to trough. Morgan Kelly, a Dublin economics professor dubbed "Doctor Doom" for his bleak assessments of Ireland's housing market, that banks face "mass defaults" and a "wave of foreclosures."

"Iceland, where almost 40% of residential mortgages were in negative equity by December, decided that month to write-off mortgages and other household debt by as much as $858 million. Unlike Ireland and other western nations, the Nordic nation placed its biggest lenders in receivership in 2008 rather than offer taxpayer-funded capital injections. Ireland has bolstered its banks with 46.3 billion Euros of additional capital over the past two years. The nation was forced to agree to an 85 billion-Euro bailout on November 28, led by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. That package includes 10 billion Euros to recapitalize the banks up- front and a further 25 billion Euros of "contingency" capital to be used if required. "While banks may be able to contain bad-loan losses on their mortgage books, 'a big and ongoing problem is that a large part of their mortgage books are based on ECB tracker rates, which banks are funding at a loss," said Karl Deeter, operations manager with  Dublin-based Irish Mortgage Brokers." -Joe Brennan Bloomberg.net 3-14-11

With 16% unemployment, chances of repayment are slim and none. We say bankers get stiffed. Iceland was the "go-first" demonstration and we think it spreads. Bankers should eat those loans.


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Michael Purves: Hi-Yo, Silver!

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 08:32 PM PDT

Reader Dave Mancini sent the following finance.yahoo.com interview about silver yesterday that isn't much better than the last one...but there are some grains of truth in it...and BGC Chief Market Strategist Michael Purves does his best.

Both these stories prove one thing, if you really want to know what's going on in the world [precious metals-related, or otherwise]...you won't find it in the mainstream media in the U.S.  The link to the 5-minute video clip is here.

Gold to Catch Fire and the Public Will Notice - Richard Russell

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 08:32 PM PDT

Here's a blog that Eric King sent me a few hours ago.  There's a big difference between the current precious metals bull market and the bull market of the 1970s. The 1970 bull market drew tremendous interest...today's huge precious metal bull market is greeted with yawns, that is, if it is greeted at all.  This is definitely worth the read...and the link is here.

Record High Silver: Where Do We Go From Here?

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 08:32 PM PDT

Reader 'Elliot' sent me this piece of drivel on silver that was posted over at cnbc.com yesterday.  Journalism [if you wish to dignify this article with that name] is not a word that's taken seriously over there...and this piece definitely falls into that category.  It's sad and funny at the same time...so don't take it seriously.  The writer doesn't even mention one of the real reasons that silver is rising in price...and that's the short covering going on by the big bullion banks.  The link is here.

Silver Review and Outlook: Ted Butler

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 08:32 PM PDT

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price really didn't do a whole heck of a lot during Far East and most of London trading yesterday...and opened in New York on Thursday morning within a dollar or two of its Wednesday afternoon close.  Then, shortly after the London p.m. gold fix, gold rose about eight buck...and then flat-lined until around half-past lunchtime in New York...before a not-for-profit seller showed up...and in just a few hours, the gold price 'fell' about twenty-two dollars.

The seller disappeared at 3:30 p.m. right on the button...and the gold price subsequently recovered a few dollars going into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. Eastern.

The silver price drifted slowly lower all through Far East trading...and finally caught a bid just minutes before 9:00 a.m. London time.  Silver got to $38.19 moments before 11:00 a.m. in New York before it, too, got the same treatment as gold...and probably from the same not-for-profit seller.

By the time this seller was through with the price, silver was down over a buck...but rose a little once the selling pressure disappeared around 3:45 p.m. Eastern.

The Comex announced a slight increase in margin requirements for silver yesterday...and that may [or may not] have contributed to silver's sell off.  But it doesn't explain why gold sold off at the same time...as I don't remember gold selling off in sympathy with silver...ever!  It always happened the other way around.

  

The U.S. dollar hit its high of the day around 8:00 a.m. in London, then spent the next eight hours falling to its low of the day, which occurred at precisely 11:00 a.m. in New York.  From there, the dollar recovered about twenty basis points going into the close of trading at 5:15 p.m. Eastern.

The gold price sort of followed the dollar right up until its low at 11:00 a.m. in New York..but after that, the relationship totally fell apart when gold refused to follow the dollar's movement in the other direction...until that not-for-profit seller showed up.

  

The gold stocks pretty much followed the gold price...and what started off as another wonderful day, ended with the HUI down 0.33% once the mystery seller was through with the precious metal prices.  Since silver was trashed even more, their associated stocks got hit a little harder as well...although there were a few green arrows here and there.

  

The CME Delivery Report was a surprise again yesterday, as 12 gold along with a very chunky 236 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday.  The big issuer in silver was JPMorgan in both their house and proprietary trading account...and the big stopper [receiver] was Barclays.  The action is definitely worth looking at...and the link is here.

There was activity in both GLD and SLV yesterday.  The GLD ETF shed 29,257 ounces of gold...but the SLV ETF took in a monstrous 5,759,073 troy ounces of silver.  That has to be one of the biggest chunks of silver they've ever brought in, in one day.

The U.S. Mint had another sales report.  They sold another 3,000 ounces of gold eagles...along with 3,000 one-ounce 24-K gold buffaloes...and a smallish 47,500 silver eagles.  Month-to-date they are up to 59,500 ounces of gold eagles...35,000 one-ounce 24-K gold buffaloes...and 2,117,000 silver eagles.

On Wednesday, the Comex-approved depositories reported receiving only 2,093 ounces of silver...and shipped 207,823 ounces out the door.  The link to that action is here.

The 1970 bull market drew tremendous interest...today's huge precious metal bull market is greeted with yawns.
Gold to Catch Fire and the Public Will Notice - Richard Russell. SLV adds 5,759,073 ounces of silver. Record High Silver: Where Do We Go From Here? The Creature From Jekyll Island

¤ Critical Reads

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Readers Pick Doug Casey's Brain - Part 2

My first story out of the chute today is this week's edition of Conversations with Casey, which contains Part 2 of "Readers Pick Doug Casey's Brain"...with the International Speculator's editor Louis James doing the honours as moderator.  It's a 23-minute video clip, which is well worth watching...and the link is here.

The Creature From Jekyll Island

If I had to pick the number one life-changing book out of the many I've read over the last ten years, G. Edward Griffin's The Creature From Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve would be it.  I've recommended this book many time in this column...and I do so once again for the very simple reason that Ed Griffin will be on the Glenn Beck show today...and the entire program is dedicated to the contents of his book.

I don't watch TV...and have no idea whether this show is even available here in Canada...but it's obviously available in the U.S...and I urge all my U.S. readers to find the time to watch this particular show...and if you want to buy the book, it's on sale for the rest of March...and the link is here.  I thank reader 'David in California' for bringing this information to our attention.

Portugal debt crisis: David Cameron holds crisis talks with EU leaders

UK Prime Minister David Cameron has held crisis talks with European leaders amid warnings that Portugal must be bailed out to avert a fresh currency crisis spreading. 

Portuguese sovereign bond yields soared to new highs in the wake of the country's parliamentary rejection of its latest austerity package, along with the Fitch downgrade of the country's credit rating. Jose Socrates, prime minister, was forced out on Wednesday night after failing to win support for the measures.

The story from The Telegraph late last night is courtesy of reader Roy Stephens...and the link is here.

Syria 'ready to explode' as desperation grows

Here's a story from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation early in their Friday that was sent to me by Washington state reader S.A. in the wee hours of this morning.

Tens of thousands of Syrians have once again poured onto the streets of the city of Dara'a in protest after security forces were accused of storming and massacring people in the city's main mosque on Wednesday.  The link to the story is here.

Libya: Gaddafi compound attacked after air force 'destroyed'

Roy Stephens sent me this story from The Telegraph about twenty-four hours ago...and too late to make yesterday's column.

RAF Air Vice-Marshal Greg Bagwell disclosed that allied forces had all but wiped out the Libyan air force and were attacking ground troops wherever they threatened the civilian population. "We are now applying sustained and unrelenting pressure on the Libyan armed forces," he said. "Effectively, their air force no longer exists as a fighting force and their integrated air defence system and command and control networks are severely degraded to the point that we can operate with near impunity across Libya."  The link to the story is here.

Turkey reluctantly joins NATO operations against Libya

Here's Roy Stephens last offering of the day.  It's an AFP story posted over at the france24.com website.  Turkey's parliament Thursday approved sending a naval force off Libya as the Islamist-rooted government moved reluctantly to join military action in the conflict-torn country despite anger at Western-led air raids.  The link is here.

Gold to Catch Fire and the Public Will Notice - Richard Russell

Here's a blog that Eric King sent me a few hours ago.  There's a big difference between the current precious metals bull market and the bull market of the 1970s. The 1970 bull market drew tremendous interest...today's huge precious metal bull market is greeted with yawns, that is, if it is greeted at all.  This is definitely worth the read...and the link is here.

Record High Silver: Where Do We Go From Here?

Reader 'Elliot' sent me this piece of drivel on silver that was posted over at cnbc.com yesterday.  Journalism [if you wish to dignify this article with that name] is not a word that's taken seriously over there...and this piece definitely falls into that category.  It's sad and funny at the same time...so don't take it seriously.  The writer doesn't even mention one of the real reasons that silver is rising in price...and that's the short covering going on by the big bullion banks.  The link is here.

Michael Purves: Hi-Yo, Silver!

Reader Dave Mancini sent the following finance.yahoo.com interview about silver yesterday that isn't much better than the last one...but there are some grains of truth in it...and BGC Chief Market Strategist Michael Purves does his best.

Both these stories prove one thing, if you really want to know what's going on in the world [precious metals-related, or otherwise]...you won't find it in the mainstream media in the U.S.  The link to the 5-minute video clip is

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