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- Book Review: The Economist's Oath by George F. DeMartino
- Extorre Lists on the NYSE Amex Exchange Under the Symbol "XG"
- What's Next for the Gold/Silver Ratio?
- Which Way is Gold Going to Go?
- Europe’s Turn Again
- Jeff Clark – Why $5,000 Gold May Be Too Low
- China May Corner Gold Market
- Silver May Rise to $40/oz in March on Tight Supply: Bloomberg Chart of the Day
- Gold and Silver Parabolics – Part II
- Stock Market DIVE!
- mines forecasting metals, not the other word around
- How the Mid-East crisis could kill the dollar
- Rare earth prices are soaring... Here's how to play it
- This could be the most important stock chart in the world today
- China adviser says Beijing should buy more gold
- Gold Mania Will Rival Tech Bubble: Rob McEwen
- No Getting Away From It, Swiss Francs and Gold Are Still the Surest Havens
- Whats Going On In The Silver Market: Audio Interview with Harvey Organ
- China Surprise
- Silver : clinging to 36
- Russia’s lost Gold
- Whats Driving the Silver Price?
- Gold: Still Far to Go
- Gold and Equities on the Verge of Breaking Out!
| Book Review: The Economist's Oath by George F. DeMartino Posted: 10 Mar 2011 06:30 AM PST by George F. DeMartino, Oxford University Press 2011 At last, the widespread public criticism has evidence from within economists' conflicts of interest and general lack of ethical principles. This scholarly volume is a well-documented critique from many perspectives. It serves as a foundation for buttressing the many critiques over the past 40 years, including my own arising from systems perspectives and many other disciplines. The dam burst in 2011 with the award of an Oscar to the movie "Inside Job," documenting the failures of analyses and conflicts of interest of economists and how they contributed to the financial crises of 2008-10, still unresolved. The Political Economy Research Institute – PERI – at the University of Massachusetts Amherst contributed greatly with its study "Financial Economists, Financial Interests and Dark Corners of the Meltdown" (pdf) by Gerald Epstein and Jessica Carrick-Hagenbarth (2010). Author DeMartino in "The Economist's Oath" provides Complete Story » | ||
| Extorre Lists on the NYSE Amex Exchange Under the Symbol "XG" Posted: 10 Mar 2011 06:05 AM PST Extorre Gold Mines Limited (TSX:XG, Frankfurt: E1R, OTC: EXGMF – "Extorre" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that its common shares have been approved for listing on the NYSE Amex, and will commence trading on Monday, March 14, 2011. The Company will trade under the symbol "XG" on both the NYSE Amex and TSX Exchanges. | ||
| What's Next for the Gold/Silver Ratio? Posted: 10 Mar 2011 05:49 AM PST Hard Assets Investor submits: By Brad Zigler History repeats itself. Somebody important1 said so. Many silver traders and investors regard the gold/silver ratio now and think that old maxim is being proved again. The white metal's been, er, white hot recently. Silver's has become expensive - not just in dollars, but in terms of gold. And as silver's price has raced higher, the gold/silver ratio has plummeted. The ratio, which describes silver's buying power by dividing the per-ounce price of gold by that of silver, has averaged 60:1 over the past 35 years, meaning it's taken 60 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold. Though with silver's most recent push to the $36/oz level, it now takes much less. The gold/silver ratio broke below 40x this week, sending silver bulls into a tizzy. A decline in the gold/silver ratio is seen as bullish for metals, a notion borne out by the last Complete Story » | ||
| Which Way is Gold Going to Go? Posted: 10 Mar 2011 05:24 AM PST Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit: After once again trading to a new all-time high last week, the price of gold has seen a notable pullback over the last few days and is now trading back below its highs from last year. When Complete Story » | ||
| Posted: 10 Mar 2011 05:11 AM PST Europe has been pretty quiet lately. But apparently that was an illusion. The Eurozone's slide down the slippery slope continues, but because the current stage involves colorless bureaucrats debating the terms of debt swaps rather than street riots and air strikes, it has been overshadowed by the chaos in the Middle East. That's about to change, as the flaws in the design of the common currency system really start to bite. As the Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who is doing a great job of dissecting the Continental Crisis, reports:
Some thoughts: It looks like the Eurozone made a huge mistake in not kicking Greece out of the system the minute it failed to meet the zone's debt and deficit targets. This would have established that the rules matter. If a country wants the benefits of a strong common currency, it has to manage its finances responsibly. In the same way that expelling a disruptive student from a classroom changes the behavior of the remaining kids, the other PIIGS countries would have immediately begun making the hard cultural and financial choices necessary to live in a (relatively) sound money world. But by bailing out Greece, Europe instead sent the message that soaring government spending and double-digit deficits will be rewarded with massive loans. This allowed the other weak economies (Ireland being the notable, admirable exception) to put off the hard adjustments — which soured German voters on further bailouts, making help on an effective scale a tough, if not impossible sale. Now, with inflation rising, the European Central Bank has been forced to promise to raise interest rates in coming months. This traps the PIIGS countries between two destructive forces: rising interest rates (prospective from the ECB and immediate in the bond markets) and the inability of German leadership to deliver a trillion-euro bailout. The result is a feedback loop of deteriorating finances leading to credit downgrades leading to higher bond yields leading to further deteriorating finances, until at some point everything falls apart. We may not be far from that point, when the bond markets demand unmanageably high rates on new Portuguese or Spanish bonds, one or both threaten to default, and German voters call their bluff. What happens then is anybody's guess.
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| Jeff Clark – Why $5,000 Gold May Be Too Low Posted: 10 Mar 2011 04:51 AM PST The Driver for Gold You're Not Watching You already know the basic reasons for owning gold – currency protection, inflation hedge, store of value, calamity insurance – many of which are becoming clichés even in mainstream articles. Throw in the supply and demand imbalance, and you've got the basic arguments for why one should hold gold for the foreseeable future. All of these factors remain very bullish, in spite of gold's 450% rise over the past 10 years. No, it's not too late to buy, especially if you don't own a meaningful amount; and yes, I'm convinced the price is headed much higher, regardless of the corrections we'll inevitably see. Each of the aforementioned catalysts will force gold's price higher and higher in the years ahead, especially the currency issues. But there's another driver of the price that escapes many gold watchers and certainly the mainstream media. And I'm convinced that once this sleeping giant wakes, it could ignite the gold market like nothing we've ever seen. The fund management industry handles the bulk of the world's wealth. These institutions include insurance companies, hedge funds, mutual funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc. But the elephant in the room is pension funds. These are institutions that provide retirement income, both public and private. Global pension assets are estimated to be – drum roll, please – $31.1 trillion. No, that is not a misprint. It is more than twice the size of last year's GDP in the U.S. ($14.7 trillion). We know a few hedge fund managers have invested in gold, like John Paulson, David Einhorn, Jean-Marie Eveillard. There are close to twenty mutual funds devoted to gold and precious metals. Lots of gold and silver bugs have been buying. So, what about pension funds? According to estimates by Shayne McGuire in his new book, Hard Money; Taking Gold to a Higher Investment Level, the typical pension fund holds about 0.15% of its assets in gold. He estimates another 0.15% is devoted to gold mining stocks, giving us a total of 0.30% – that is, less than one third of one percent of assets committed to the gold sector. Shayne is head of global research at the Teacher Retirement System of Texas. He bases his estimate on the fact that commodities represent about 3% of the total assets in the average pension fund. And of that 3%, about 5% is devoted to gold. It is, by any account, a negligible portion of a fund's asset allocation. Now here's the fun part. Let's say fund managers as a group realize that bonds, equities, and real estate have become poor or risky investments and so decide to increase their allocation to the gold market. If they doubled their exposure to gold and gold stocks – which would still represent only 0.6% of their total assets – it would amount to $93.3 billion in new purchases. How much is that? The assets of GLD total $55.2 billion, so this amount of money is 1.7 times bigger than the largest gold ETF. SLV, the largest silver ETF, has net assets of $9.3 billion, a mere one-tenth of that extra allocation. The market cap of the entire sector of gold stocks (producers only) is about $234 billion. The gold industry would see a 40% increase in new money to the sector. Its market cap would double if pension institutions allocated just 1.2% of their assets to it. But what if currency issues spiral out of control? What if bonds wither and die? What if real estate takes ten years to recover? What if inflation becomes a rabid dog like it has every other time in history when governments have diluted their currency to this degree? If these funds allocate just 5% of their assets to gold – which would amount to $1.5 trillion – it would overwhelm the system and rocket prices skyward. And let's not forget that this is only one class of institution. Insurance companies have about $18.7 trillion in assets. Hedge funds manage approximately $1.7 trillion. Sovereign wealth funds control $3.8 trillion. Then there are mutual funds, ETFs, private equity funds, and private wealth funds. Throw in millions of retail investors like you and me and Joe Sixpack and Jiao Sixpack, and we're looking in the rear view mirror at $100 trillion. I don't know if pension funds will devote that much money to this sector or not. What I do know is that sovereign debt risks are far from over, the U.S. dollar and other currencies will lose considerably more value against gold, interest rates will most certainly rise in the years ahead, and inflation is just getting started. These forces are in place and building, and if there's a paradigm shift in how these managers view gold, look out! Once fund managers enter the gold market in mass, this tiny sector will light on fire with blazing speed. My advice is to not just hope you can jump in once these drivers hit the gas, but to claim your seat during the relative calm of this month's level prices. ~Jeff Clark, Casey Research | ||
| Posted: 10 Mar 2011 03:49 AM PST Richard Lehmann: China May Corner Gold Market Thursday, 10 Mar 2011 11:58 AM Article Font Size By Dan Weil China has likely begun a campaign to convert its dollars to gold that could end up with the nation cornering the gold market, says Richard Lehmann, editor of the Forbes/Lehmann Income Security Investor newsletter. China is alarmed about potential weakness for the dollar, he says in an interview with Steve Forbes. So "I'm concerned that basically China is probably already on a program to diversify the dollar into gold. I don't think they want any other fiat currencies or want to minimize that amount."
So China could "in one stroke, basically take control of the gold market and tie the dollar to gold so that effectively, if every six months the dollar deteriorates 5 percent, they can just upgrade the stated price at which they wanted to buy gold and thereby upgrade and up-value their gold reserves, but also keep the dollar in check." With plenty of other investors buying gold too, many experts expect it to continue rising. Richard Russell, author of the Dow Theory newsletter, says in a commentary obtained by King World News that the precious metal may reach $6,000 an ounce. Spot gold was at $1,407.40 an ounce near midday Thursday. Read more: Richard Lehmann: China May Corner Gold Market | ||
| Silver May Rise to $40/oz in March on Tight Supply: Bloomberg Chart of the Day Posted: 10 Mar 2011 01:30 AM PST | ||
| Gold and Silver Parabolics – Part II Posted: 10 Mar 2011 01:26 AM PST | ||
| Posted: 10 Mar 2011 01:09 AM PST Looks like something big is up, or should I say, down. A lot of electronic stops are kicking in causing massive selling. All this cash (dry powder) going to the sidelines. Eventually, will be plowed back into something. I would think "SAFE HAVENS but who knows. The market is so contrived. This feels like 2008 to me. | ||
| mines forecasting metals, not the other word around Posted: 10 Mar 2011 12:46 AM PST :confused::confused::confused: anyone else noticed this? ugh wtf how did I mess up that title so bad? it should read "miners forecasting metals, not the other way around"? | ||
| How the Mid-East crisis could kill the dollar Posted: 10 Mar 2011 12:16 AM PST From Gonzalo Lira: In 1848, protests and revolutions swept through Europe. The specific causes were different in each country, but the underlying cause was the same everywhere: The middle and upper middle classes – politically powerless in these absolutist monarchies – wanted more control over their lives. We are having an 1848 moment in the Middle East: Autocratic governments in two of these countries have been overthrown outright (Tunisia and Egypt), one is sliding into civil war (Libya), and a host of others are teetering. A few other undemocratic governments beyond the Middle East are very worried that their restive populations might get ideas – China, I’m looking at you. The immediate spark for these revolts has been the rising price of food—but the fuel for this bonfire has been decades of political marginalization for large swathes of the educated population of these Middle Eastern countries. Autocratic regimes never fare well during economic downturns. The Global Depression that began with the financial crisis in 2008 is slowly but surely picking up a head of inflationary steam, which has been squeezing the middle classes in these countries. A middle class being squeezed economically eventually oozes out political unrest—as we have been seeing throughout the Middle East and North Africa. Now, in early March 2011, with the fate of these various revolts still unclear, it would be wise to go over them, and see where they are in each country. And it would be wise, too, to examine how these various revolts in the Middle East will affect... Read full article... More on the dollar: How hyperinflation could come to America The next 10 days could determine the fate of the U.S. dollar The absolute must-read editorial of the week... of the month | ||
| Rare earth prices are soaring... Here's how to play it Posted: 10 Mar 2011 12:16 AM PST From Gold Stock Trades: The Middle East turmoil has created a sell-off in equities and a run to the safe haven assets of precious metals and oil. Even though rare earth prices are soaring, many investors have overlooked a key sector which has pulled back, providing a bargain opportunity before the rare earth crisis intensifies. U.S. House Rep Mike Coffman from Colorado, joined by 28 Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives sent a letter to the U.S. Trade Representative, demanding he file a complaint with the World Trade Organization against China's export reduction policies of rare earths. Coffman wrote, "…Rare earths are critical to U.S. national security. Currently, the world is nearly 100 percent reliant on Chinese exports …" Coffman continued in his letter, "While our nation must act to correct our domestic rare earth supply chain problem, we must also recognize that the lack of a level playing field…is harmful." Coffman mentioned that the United States must act to correct the domestic rare earth supply. Even though there are a few heavy rare earth deposits in North America, there is no separation facility outside China. This facility is crucial in extracting the valuable metal. Avalon Rare Metals (AVL) may be the first to bring separation capabilities, but that is not until 2016, so alternative solutions must be addressed... Read full article... More on rare earths: This tiny new company could supply 25% of the world's rare earth demand The huge source of power China has over America that no one talks about Major manufacturer: U.S. facing "impending shortages" in these rare commodities | ||
| This could be the most important stock chart in the world today Posted: 10 Mar 2011 12:09 AM PST From Jeff Clark in Growth Stock Wire: Stocks are storing up energy for another big move. For the past two weeks, the S&P 500 has been confined to a tight trading range between 1,332 on the upside and 1,305 on the downside. The lack of activity has frustrated both bulls and bears, and has coaxed some of the best traders I know off their trading desks and onto the golf course. "Why should I waste time staring at my quote screen," my friend Jim asked me, "when I get more action out of my 3-wood?" By the look of the following chart, however, Jim might want to put his clubs back in the bag. The S&P is nearing an inflection point. And when it breaks, it's going to break big. Take a look… Read full article (with chart)... More on stocks: Marc Faber: Sell stocks now... buy this instead Doug Casey: Get ready for the junior gold mania Trader alert: This high-flying stock could be crashing | ||
| China adviser says Beijing should buy more gold Posted: 09 Mar 2011 08:42 PM PST Here's another story that I stole from a GATA release yesterday. It's a Reuters piece filed from Beijing...and it's another 'senior economic advisor' being quoted about the fact that China should buy more gold. "China should increase its gold reserves appropriately, and China must take every chance to buy, especially when gold prices fall," senior economist Li Yining was quoted by the official Xinhua news agency as saying. The link is here. | ||
| Gold Mania Will Rival Tech Bubble: Rob McEwen Posted: 09 Mar 2011 08:42 PM PST ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverThe smallish rally in gold that started at 9:00 a.m. London time...lasted until about 9:00 a.m in New York when gold reach it's high tick of the day at $1,423.90 spot. From that point on, the gold price met its usual fate...and got sold down to its N.Y. low [$1,423.90 spot] around 11:40 a.m. Eastern. From that low, gold began to rally, but traded sideways from almost the moment that Comex trading ended...and electronic trading began.
The silver price was more 'volatile' during the Wednesday trading session. The major difference was that silver's high of $36.47 spot came at precisely 9:30 a.m. Eastern before JPMorgan pulled their bids twice...and the price crashed to its low of $35.62 at 11:35 a.m. in New York...an 85 cent price drop in two hours and five minutes. Silver, like gold, then rallied...but traded sideways shortly after electronic trading began at 1:30 p.m.
The two things to notice about both these gold and silver graphs is the general price activity over all three days. For the most part, both gold and silver rallied during late Far East and London trading until New York trading began on the Comex...then the sell-offs began. Also note that for all three days there were big drops in price going into the London p.m. gold fix at 10:00 a.m. Nick Laird [with a hat tip to Dimitri Speck] of sharelynx.com made up this graph entitled "Intraday Average Gold Price Movements". The average gold price has been obtained from 4 years of data - from March 2006 through to March 2010...which is approximately 1,000 trading days. Carefully note this price action, compared to the price of action of both metals during the last three trading days. This is the mark of the price management beast.
The dollar rose a hair until 8:30 a.m. in London trading, before falling to it's low of the day at 7:00 a.m. Eastern time...falling a bit more than 40 basis points during that period...before recovering a bit going into the close of New York trading. It's a big stretch to say that the dollar and gold were joined at the hip yesterday.
The gold stocks started off in positive territory, but couldn't hold up under the selling pressure in gold...and there's no prize for being able to pick the low in the gold price off this chart. The HUI finished down 0.86%...despite the fact that the gold price finished in the black. Some of the silver stocks got smoked pretty good yesterday...but as I pointed out last week, there's a lot of day/momentum traders in some of these small junior producers...and at the first sign that things aren't going their way...they're gone. I would suspect that that was the case yesterday and Tuesday...but they'll be back on the next big price rally.
The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 2 gold, along with 88 silver contracts, were posted for delivery on Friday. The biggest issuer in silver was the Bank of Nova Scotia. There was quite a variety of stoppers...with the largest being Barclays. Here's the link to the action. For the second day in a row, the GLD ETF reported no changes...and for the third day in a row the SLV ETF took in a big chunk of silver. This time it was 1,952,612 troy ounces. Right now the SLV is reported to be sitting on 352,824,122 ounces of silver...which is a new record high. The U.S. Mint reported selling another 5,500 ounces of gold eagles yesterday...but did not add to their silver eagle sales. Month-to-date, they have sold 18,500 ounces of gold eagles...along with 668,500 silver eagles. There was activity in all four Comex warehouses on Tuesday. They reported receiving 592,485 ounces of silver...and shipped out a smallish 92,492 ounces. The link to that action is here. Washington state reader S.A. was kind enough to provide the 30-year chart of the Gold/Silver Ratio. We aren't at 30-year lows...but we're getting close.
Another one of my daily readers, who wishes to remain anonymous, made up the following 40-year graph of the Gold/Silver Ratio...but the vertical axis is reversed...showing an upward trend as the ratio gets smaller. This graph shows that we are in a 'bull market' for the Gold/Silver ratio.
The absolute 'high' was 14.00 in early 1980. I'm sure we'll get there again...it's just a question of how long it takes...and how much we'll exceed the old 'high'. It was another busy day for my bullion dealer yesterday...and if this keeps up, it should be a record week for silver sales. I think he's only sold a handful of gold maple leafs...and the rest has been silver bullion. I'm sure that this is a scenario that's occurring in every coin and bullion store across North America at the moment. And, when all is said and done, it will be the rapidly increasing investment demand that will drive a stake through the heart of the silver price suppression scheme that JPMorgan et al are currently trying to extricate themselves from. It will be the rapidly increasing investment demand that will drive a stake through the heart of the silver price suppression scheme. SLV adds 1,952,612 troy ounces of silver...and is at a new record high. China adviser says Beijing should buy more gold. No Getting Away From It, Swiss Francs and Gold Are Still the Surest Havens: Wall Street Journal. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeMassachusetts mayors, unions debate health care proposalsToday's first story is courtesy of reader Scott Pluschau. It's filed from Boston...and posted over at cnbc.com. Massachusetts mayors are warning state lawmakers that, without dramatic changes to the way municipalities provide health care to their public workers, cities and towns will face dire fiscal straits for the foreseeable future, threatening core local services from police to road repairs. State governments, squeezed between a lower tax base and rapidly escalating costs for health care, are finding themselves up against the wall...and something's got give. The link is here. Warning Of 'Food Price Riots In The UK'In a similar light, is this story from Britain that's posted over at the news.sky.com website. A senior economist said the following..."Even in the developed world I think we have very, very low wage growth, so people aren't getting more in their pay packet to compensate them for food and energy, and I think we could see social unrest certainly in parts of the developed world and the UK as well." She would be right about that. The link is here...and I thank reader Scott Pluschau for this story as well. Number Of Underwater Mortgages Rises As More Homeowners Fall BehindThis next story is courtesy of reader Roy Stephens...and is a posting over at the huffingtonpost.com website. About 11.1 million households, or 23.1 percent of all mortgaged homes, were underwater in the October-December quarter, according to report released Tuesday by housing data firm CoreLogic. That's up from 22.5 percent, or 10.8 million households, in the July-September quarter. The link to the story is here. Welfare State: Handouts Make Up One-Third of U.S. WagesHere's a rather unhappy story that's posted over at cnbc.com...and was sent to me by reader U.D. Government payouts—including Social Security, Medicare and unemployment insurance—make up more than a third of total wages and salaries of the U.S. population, a record figure that will only increase if action isn't taken before the majority of Baby Boomers enter retirement. The link is here. Another PIMCO fund dumps U.S. government debtThis is a Reuters piece that I 'borrowed' from a GATA release yesterday. PIMCO's Total Return Fund, the world's biggest bond fund, hasgone ultra bearish on the United States, dumping all of its U.S. government-related debt holdings, a source familiar with the fund's holdings said on Wednesday. This is definitely worth the read...and the link is here. Argentina bans inflation from official jargon; inflation of synonymsHere's a story that falls in the 'You Can't Make This Stuff Up' category...and it was sent to me by Casey Research's own Louis James...and is a posting over at mercopress.com. Next October Argentines will be going to the polls to vote for president and renew Congress which anticipates a rough political eight months, but before that the administration of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has to weather a round of labour contracts which will be demanding strong adjustments because of the "prices distortion and dispersion" since the word 'inflation' has been erased from the official jargon. The link is here. EU paralysis drives fresh bond routReader Roy Stephens brings us this story that was posted late last night in The Telegraph. Political paralysis in Brussels and monetary tightening by the European Central Bank has set off a fresh spasm of the eurozone bond crisis, pushing spreads on Portuguese, Irish and Greek bonds to post-EMU records. International business editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard lays it out for us...and it's definitely a must read. The link is here. No Getting Away From It, Swiss Francs and Gold Are Still the Surest Havens Posted: 09 Mar 2011 08:42 PM PST Washington state reader S.A. provides the next gold-relate story which appeared in yesterday's edition of The Wall Street Journal. In the end, the quest for safe havens most obviously ends up at the doors of gold and the Swiss franc. Gold is hitting record highs daily at the moment and looking extremely comfortable well above the $1,400 per ounce level. Meanwhile the dollar notched up its all-time low against the Swiss franc two weeks ago, and hasn't recovered much poise since. But it's interesting to note that one of these two is a 150-year old redoubt in times of trouble. The other, well, it's been a store of last-ditch value for millennia. | ||
| Whats Going On In The Silver Market: Audio Interview with Harvey Organ Posted: 09 Mar 2011 06:32 PM PST Jesse's Cafe | ||
| Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:42 PM PST
Mercenary Links Roundup for Wednesday, March 9 (below the jump).
03-09 Wednesday
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| Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:40 PM PST Along the Watchtower | ||
| Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:30 PM PST GoldCoin | ||
| Whats Driving the Silver Price? Posted: 09 Mar 2011 04:48 PM PST | ||
| Posted: 09 Mar 2011 04:46 PM PST | ||
| Gold and Equities on the Verge of Breaking Out! Posted: 09 Mar 2011 04:38 PM PST |
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