saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Silver Market Update
- Gold Market Update
- February Sees Gold up 6% and Silver up 19% on Inflation and Escalating Geopolitical Risk
- Monday Morning - The Calm Before the Storm
- The Day of Gold-Plated Public Sector Pensions are Numbered
- Mexico ETF: Mining Sector Cashes In on the Rush for Metals
- Silver and the New Decade
- Monday FX Brief: Greenback Weaker as Fed Focus to Remain on Employment
- As Company Margins Get Squeezed, Will Earnings per Share Follow?
- 1:30 ...its D Day...lets see what damage we casued
- Gold Heading for Another Bull Run?
- Marc Faber answers the most important question in the world
- "Golden fireworks": An explosive gold rally could start soon
- Frequently Asked Questions on Silver
- Global Economy? 23 Facts Which Prove That Globalism Is Pushing The Standard Of Living Of The Middle Class Down To Third World Levels
- Saddling up with Death
- Special report: The biggest company you never heard of
- Tits and tats of the Bears part 4 Video starting to roll in...? QE2: The Road to a Gold Standard
- Signs of the times
- Got Gold Report – Silver Shortage in Full Bloom
- Goldcorp Coins It in the Gold Trade
- SPX, Oil, Silver & Geopolitical Risk
- February Sees Gold Up 6%, Silver 19%
- How Much More Demand Can Silver Handle?
- And they're off......
- Silver — Over or Under-Valued?
- GOLDEN FIREWORKS ARE ABOUT TO BEGIN
- Kenny leads Fine Gael to win as Fianna Fáil vote collapses
| Posted: 28 Feb 2011 02:14 AM PST
|
| Posted: 28 Feb 2011 02:11 AM PST
|
| February Sees Gold up 6% and Silver up 19% on Inflation and Escalating Geopolitical Risk Posted: 28 Feb 2011 01:32 AM PST |
| Monday Morning - The Calm Before the Storm Posted: 28 Feb 2011 12:54 AM PST  Phil Davis submits: Flat futures this morning. Isn't that special? The futures were off a bit very early this morning but the dollar fell below 77 and cheered them right up. Oil is looking like it will be around $98 this morning and gold is flat to Friday at $1,411 with silver at $33.50 and copper at $4.47 – just the normal noises in here, it seems. Tomorrow, of course, is March 1 and, as we all know, the first day of the month is THE BEST day to go long. Twelve of the last 14 first days of the month have been up days with the S&P gaining 17% on the first day of the month (Feb 1 not on this chart) and just 1.4% on all the rest of the days combined! So, miss the first day and miss out on the rally is a bit of an understatement, isn't it? Complete Story » |
| The Day of Gold-Plated Public Sector Pensions are Numbered Posted: 28 Feb 2011 12:50 AM PST The 'workforce elite' in America today are public sector employees and they, led by state and municipal unionized workers, are now in open revolt to preserve their special status, and the status quo. Wisconsin is the current case study in what happens when the government, a monopoly service provider, confronts the fact that the taxpayer is tapped out and can't take it anymore – and there simply isn't enough money anymore. Those realities are going to result in major adjustments in worker incomes, future pensions and benefits and their overall standard of living. Let me explain. Words: 1849 |
| Mexico ETF: Mining Sector Cashes In on the Rush for Metals Posted: 28 Feb 2011 12:43 AM PST Tom Lydon submits: Higher metals prices have prompted greater interest in mining operations, and the Mexico exchange traded fund (ETF) could benefit from the influx of cash in merger and acquisitions in Mexico's mining sector. Mexico's Mining Chamber stated that around 50 sites are potential targets for M&A, worth a combined $4.4 billion in mining investments as metals prices continue their upward trajectory, reports Mica Rosenberg for The Daily Crux. Sergio Almazan, the head of the chamber, believes that investments will increase 7.3% in 2011 year-over-year.
Complete Story » |
| Posted: 28 Feb 2011 12:34 AM PST The decade from 2000 to 2010 is now forever behind us. So what is in store for the new decade? 2010 to 2020? The last decade was a good time to prepare and recognize that severe chaos was on the way. And that chaos is like a boiler slowly building up pressure. |
| Monday FX Brief: Greenback Weaker as Fed Focus to Remain on Employment Posted: 28 Feb 2011 12:24 AM PST Andrew Wilkinson submits: The driving forces behind a weaker dollar are likely to be showcased by Fed Chairman Bernanke this week as he speaks to the Senate in his twice-yearly testimony on monetary policy. Mr. Bernanke will likely reiterate the need for policymakers to retain focus on creating the conditions necessary to improve the labor market before it turns worried about the same inflationary pressures that fellow central bankers the world over are voicing concerns about. U.S. Dollar – As a result of concerns that monetary policy is likely to continue to feel a cold shoulder from the Fed the dollar weakened to its lowest in four months against a basket of global units. The dollar index shed 0.5% to stand at 76.85 as it fell most against rebounding European units. Later on Monday data scheduled for release includes income and expenditure measures as well as a reading of the health of manufacturingComplete Story » |
| As Company Margins Get Squeezed, Will Earnings per Share Follow? Posted: 28 Feb 2011 12:22 AM PST Denis Ouellet submits: Much is being written these days on the US corporate margin squeeze developing from rising commodity prices. Zero Hedge's Tyler Durden first wrote about that in December:
Complete Story » |
| 1:30 ...its D Day...lets see what damage we casued Posted: 28 Feb 2011 12:19 AM PST 1:30 should give us the entire picture, but CRIMEX has been late as of late. Most likely because the numbers they are giving us are complete BS now. I'm beginning to think that the only way we can really take down the EE, is through a complete and utter societal and financial collapse that a civilization hasn't seen in a long, long time. Either way, if you are keeping tally in terms of spot |
| Gold Heading for Another Bull Run? Posted: 28 Feb 2011 12:14 AM PST Marco G. submits: The price of gold is appearing as if it is set up for another bull run. Is this from any sophisticated technical chart analysis? No, it is merely from examining the chart of the gold price (using the GLD ETF as a proxy) and observing the similarity of patterns that seems to be matching the gold price's rise from the consolidations of last summer. Here and now, we have just witnessed gold's price gyrate up and down ... gold just feels like it is headed for new highs. Note that the price is just now making a fourth attempt in as many months to penetrate the new high price set in as many months. Last summer saw a similar situation, where the price made about five attempts before finally setting a new high on or about September 1. This consolidation also lasted about four months. Then, when Complete Story » |
| Marc Faber answers the most important question in the world Posted: 28 Feb 2011 12:07 AM PST From Zero Hedge: All who enjoy hearing a meaty Marc Faber fire and brimstone sermon, that cuts through the b%#^$%*t, will be happy to know that the Gloom, Boom & Doom author conducted a 40-minute interview with the McAlvany Financial Group, which covers all the usual suspects: gold, silver, precious, and industrial metals, the "crack-up boom," the future of the Ponzi and capital markets in general and much more. Of course, it wouldn't be a Faber interview without the requisite soundbite: "I think we are all doomed. I think what will happen is that we are in the midst of a kind of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable, that eventually the economy will deteriorate, that there will be more money-printing, and then you have inflation, and a poor economy, an extreme form of stagflation, and, eventually, in that situation, countries go to war, and, as a whole, derivatives, the market, and everything will collapse, and like a computer when it crashes, you will have to reboot it." Of course, on a long enough timeline... Key extract from the Faber speech: I think we are all doomed. I think what will happen is that we are in the midst of a kind of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable, that eventually the economy will deteriorate, that there will be more money-printing, and then you have inflation, and a poor economy, an extreme form of stagflation, and, eventually, in that situation, countries go to war, and, as a whole, derivatives, the market, and everything will collapse, and like a computer when it crashes, you will have to reboot it. For the investor, the question is: How do I navigate through this complete disaster that is going to unfold? Read full article... More from Marc Faber: Marc Faber: This is the "end game" Marc Faber: Sell stocks now... buy this instead Marc Faber: The three commodity investments you must buy now |
| "Golden fireworks": An explosive gold rally could start soon Posted: 28 Feb 2011 12:00 AM PST From Gold Scents: The gold bull is now on the verge of launching the most spectacular up-leg of this 10-year bull market. This spring, we should see the final parabolic rally of the massive C-wave advance that began in April '09 with a test of the 1980 high at $860. First off let me explain gold's four-wave pattern. (And no, it has nothing to do with Elliott waves.) Gold moves in an ABCD wave pattern, driven not only by the fundamentals of the gold market (which I will get into in a minute) but also by the emotions of gold investors and the thin nature of the precious metals market. The A-wave is an advancing wave that begins and is driven by the extremely oversold conditions created during... Read full article... More on gold: Why silver will beat gold now Rumors swirling: The U.S. gov't is planning to confiscate gold This startling Chinese gold development has "stunned" precious metals traders |
| Frequently Asked Questions on Silver Posted: 27 Feb 2011 04:45 PM PST |
| Posted: 27 Feb 2011 12:52 PM PST 
But without good, high paying jobs the U.S. middle class cannot continue to be the U.S middle class. The only thing that the vast majority of Americans have to offer in the economic marketplace is their labor. Sadly, that labor has now been dramatically devalued. American workers now must directly compete for jobs with millions upon millions of workers on the other side of the world that toil away for 15 hours a day at slave labor wages. This is causing jobs to leave the United States at an almost unbelievable rate, and it is putting tremendous downward pressure on the wages of millions of jobs that are still in the United States. So when you hear terms such as "globalization" and "the global economy", it is important to keep in mind that those are code words for the emerging one world economic system that is systematically wiping out the U.S. middle class. A one world labor pool means that the standard of living for the U.S. middle class will continue falling toward the standard of living in the third world. We keep hearing about how the U.S. economy is being transformed from a "manufacturing economy" into a "service economy". But "service jobs" are generally much lower paying than "manufacturing jobs". The number of good paying "middle class jobs" in the United States is rapidly decreasing. So how can the U.S. middle class survive in such an environment? What makes things even worse for manufacturers in the United States is that other nations often impose a "value-added tax" of 20 percent or more on U.S. goods entering their shores and yet most of the time we do not reciprocate with similar taxes. But whenever someone mentions how incredibly unfair and unbalanced our trade agreements with other nations are, they are immediately labeled as a "protectionist". Well, someone should be looking out for U.S. interests when it comes to trade, because the current state of the global economy is ripping the U.S. middle class to shreds. Right now, the United States consumes far more wealth than it produces. This nation buys much, much more from the rest of the world than they buy from us. This is called a "trade deficit", and it is one of the most important economic statistics. The U.S. runs a massive trade deficit every single year, and it is wiping out our national wealth, it is destroying our surviving industries and it is absolutely shredding middle class America. We cannot allow tens of thousands of factories to continue to leave the United States. We cannot allow millions of jobs to continue to be "outsourced" and "offshored". We cannot allow tens of billions of dollars of our national wealth to continue to be transferred into foreign hands every single month. The truth is that the global economy is bad for America. The following are 23 facts which prove that globalism is pushing the standard of living of the middle class down to third world levels.... #1 From December 2000 to December 2010, the U.S. ran a total trade deficit of 6.1 trillion dollars. #2 The U.S. trade deficit was about 33 percent larger in 2010 than it was in 2009. #3 The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2010 was 27 times larger than it was back in 1990. #4 The U.S. economy is rapidly trading high wage jobs for low wage jobs. According to a new report from the National Employment Law Project, higher wage industries accounted for 40 percent of the job losses over the past 12 months but only 14 percent of the job growth. Lower wage industries accounted for just 23 percent of the job losses over the past 12 months and a whopping 49 percent of the job growth. #5 Between December 2000 and December 2010, 38 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Ohio were lost, 42 percent of the manufacturing jobs in North Carolina were lost and 48 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Michigan were lost. #6 In Germany, exports account for approximately 40 percent of GDP. In China, exports account for approximately 30 percent of GDP. In the United States, exports account for approximately 13 percent of GDP. #7 Do you remember when the United States was the dominant manufacturer of automobiles and trucks on the globe? Well, in 2010 the U.S. ran a trade deficit in automobiles, trucks and parts of $110 billion. #8 In 2010, South Korea exported 12 times as many automobiles, trucks and parts to us as we exported to them. #9 The U.S. economy now has 10 percent fewer "middle class jobs" than it did just ten years ago. #10 The United States currently has 7.7 million fewer payroll jobs than it did back in December 2007. #11 Back in 1970, 25 percent of all jobs in the United States were manufacturing jobs. Today, only 9 percent of the jobs in the United States are manufacturing jobs. #12 In 2002, the United States had a trade deficit in "advanced technology products" of $16 billion with the rest of the world. In 2010, that number skyrocketed to $82 billion. #13 The United States now spends more than 4 dollars on goods and services from China for every one dollar that China spends on goods and services from the United States. #14 In China, working conditions are so bad that large numbers of "employees" regularly try to commit suicide. One major employer, Foxconn, has even gone so far as to install "anti-suicide nets" in an attempt to keep their employees from jumping off of their buildings. #15 Wages for workers in China are incredibly low. For example, one facility in the city of Longhua that makes iPods employs approximately 200,000 workers. These workers put in endless 15-hour days but they only make about $50 per month. #16 In Bangladesh, manufacturing workers toil in absolutely horrific conditions and make an average of about $38 per month. #17 In Vietnam, teenage workers often work seven days a week for as little as 6 cents an hour making promotional Disney toys for McDonald's. #18 Since 2001, over 42,000 manufacturing facilities in the United States have been closed. #19 Half of all American workers now earn $505 or less per week. #20 In the United States today, 6.2 million Americans have been out of work for 6 months of longer. #21 8.4 million Americans are currently working part-time jobs for "economic reasons". These jobs are mostly very low paying service jobs. #22 When you adjust wages for inflation, middle class workers in the United States make less money today than they did back in 1971. #23 According to Willem Buiter, the chief economist at Citigroup, China will be the largest economy in the world by the year 2020, and India will surpass China by the year 2050. Those that promote "free trade" can never explain how the U.S. middle class is going to continue to have plenty of jobs in the new global economy. By merging our labor pool with the rest of the world, we have also merged our standard of living with the rest of the world. High unemployment is rapidly becoming "the new normal" in America, and wages are going to continue to decline in many, many industries. Already, there are quite a few formerly great U.S. cities (such as Detroit) that are beginning to resemble third world hellholes. If something is not done about our massive trade imbalance, even more cities are going to follow Detroit into oblivion. Unfortunately, most of our politicians continue to insist that globalism is good for our society. They continue to insist that we should not be worried that jobs formerly done by middle class American workers are now being done by slave laborers on the other side of the globe. They continue to insist that having 43 million Americans on food stamps is a temporary thing and that soon our economy will be better than ever. Well, it is time to stop listening to the politicians that are promoting "the global economy". They are lying to us. Globalism is great for nations such as China and it is helping multinational corporations make huge profits, but for the U.S. middle class it is an economic death sentence. If you want an America where there are less jobs, where more Americans are on food stamps and other anti-poverty programs and where our cities continue to be transformed into deindustrialized hellholes, then you should strongly support the emerging global economy. But if you care about the standard of living of the U.S. middle class and you want for there to be some kind of viable economic future for your children and your grandchildren then you had better start caring about these issues and doing something about them. Please wake up America. |
| Posted: 27 Feb 2011 11:15 AM PST --If Dr. Marc Faber is right, and the whole financial system we live in is basically doomed, then how advisable is it to keep acquiring financial investments like stocks and bonds? This is the question we began this week of reckoning with. It's a pretty important one. And to be honest, the answer is very much up in the air. --The case your editor made in the special edition of the Daily Reckoning over the weekend is simple: The major global economic powers have been engaged in a contest of competitive currency devaluations. The result is the gradual dilution of the purchasing power of paper money, reflected in the rising prices of tangible goods (commodities)....The currency war is starting to produce geopolitical casualties. --The point went a bit further. The more powerful geopolitical factors become in markets, the better it should generally be for tangible assets. It follows (we claim) that the owners and producers of tangible assets would start to command a premium in the share market too. That's the general idea. --The idea is attractive because it's supported by inflationist policies of the world's central banks. These policies are designed to keep cheap credit flowing into the financial system to keep financial asset prices higher and help banks (and whole countries) stay solvent. But that's not all. --It just so happens these policies have undermined faith in paper money and led to politically destabilising inflation (without growth!). This inflation has hit first and hardest in those countries most vulnerable to higher food and energy prices. Hence the bull market in popular revolution. --And so here we are wondering whether you can really profit from the Great Arab Revolt. Are energy and commodity stocks good hedges against inflation? And will shares resist the downward pressure on asset prices if quantitative easing prices fail? --None of these are really new questions. It's just that the last few weeks have made these questions more urgent. The answers will start to be revealed. And of course, there are going to be winners and losers. If you haven't given these questions much thought, now would be a good time. --The default and usually reliable position is to invest along the primary trend in the market. In normal times, tomorrow is pretty much like yesterday and the improvements in life are incremental. For investors, that means that if you get your asset allocation right, and then pick a few proxies within the winning asset class, your investment strategy doesn't have to be complicated. --A simple version of that advice is this: buy stocks when they're in a bull market. On that subject, Vale, the world's largest iron ore producer, reckons the bull market in iron ore is going to last another three or four years. Vale's marketing chief Jose Carlos Martins says that for this year, "I do not see a big change in the fundamentals." That means more demand from China and high ore prices. --"For sure, more iron ore will come into production—not only from Vale but from iron producers, but not an extent that could change the fundamental market situation," he's quoted as saying in today's Australian Financial Review. "We see every year China steel production growing. For this year, what they talk about is five per cent growth. And five per cent growth, only in China, will demand more than 50 million tonnes of iron ore." --The current spot iron ore price is already at record levels. If you believe the arguments made by David Gruen in this paper over at the RBA site, then the re-emergence of China and India into the global economy means that a "structural change" in Australia's economy. And what is that change? --Well, in his latest issue of the Australian Small-Cap Investigator, Kris Sayce argues that the Chinese demand for ore has, in effect, created a new class of companies in the ore industry that simply couldn't exist without this structural change. It's the same industry with a new breed of competitors thriving in a newly created ecosystem of opportunity, so to speak. --These companies are not what you'd call classic "disruptive technology companies." They don't even really fit in with the "creative destruction" metaphor that describes how new start ups displace static incumbents. But Kris argues they still have the basic characteristic you're looking for in a growth stock: the ability to capture quick profits and share price gains in a brand new market. --Iron ore is not a brand new market, of course. But lower-quality ore deposits with shorter mine lives are not the kind of projects that would be worth pursuing in a normal commodity cycle. There are plenty of high-grade, economic, and large resources in the Pilbara. And most of them are locked up by a handful of companies you may already own (like BHP and Rio Tinto). --Kris has argued, then, that small-cap investors can benefit from the tangible asset boom by punting on companies that have small production targets, but are riding along in the slipstream of an epic bull market in iron ore. That is one way of taking a position on global events that comes down to buying Aussie shares. --The success of that strategy comes down, in part, to how quickly supply of key commodities can catch up with demand (assuming demand doesn't fall a lot, which is a whole other debate). This gap between supply and demand varies from commodity to commodity. You have to look at it on a case by case basis. This is what Dr. Alex Cowie did last year when he recommended tin, copper, and potash companies. There's plenty of evidence that it's a great strategy. --For example, resource investor and fund manager Eric Sprott reckons there is a massive shortage in silver. You can watch Sprott make the case here. But the short version of the case is that Sprott reckons just seven large silver investors own close to 520 million ounces of silver. He concludes that investment demand for silver has been so strong that there's very little non-mine supply sliver left for everyone else. --A market that small—the silver market is only about $22 billion a year—with that big a gap between demand and supply is a market with enormous explosive potential. That could mean explosion in the positive sense (much higher prices) or explosive in the negative sense (investors get blown up if silver prices fall dramatically, as they would if industrial demand fell in a global slowdown). --Our colleague Greg Canavan, with his grounding in the principles of sound money, has argued that sliver (along with gold) is being remonetised into the world's financial system. This means central banks are holding silver as a reserve asset. And it means more and more individual portfolios are including an exposure to precious metals, both shares and bullion. --Silver is money, just as gold is money. They have the inherent benefit of being harder to produce than pieces of paper. Owning them is one way to preserve the value of your savings while the world's complicated financial architecture falls apart. --If you're still not sure that gold is really money, ask yourself why Egypt has banned gold exports, according to the Middle East News Agency. It's a capital control that prevents money from leaving the country in times of civil unrest. Get used to it. You'll be seeing a lot more of it as the petro-dollar standard unravels. --And speaking about petro dollars, what about oil and energy shares? Well, we wrote about them this weekend. The revolutions in North Africa and the Middle East almost certainly mean higher oil prices. But it also means renewed investment in unconventional energy projects. At the very least, countries will try to geographically diversify their long-term energy supplies. --But the truth of the matter is the Middle East is home to the world's largest, low-cost energy reserves. You can find energy in other places. It's going to cost you, though. That could benefit Australia, with its coal, uranium, LNG, and other gas resources. --Sinopec, one of China's energy titans, is already on the case. Bloomberg reports that Sinopec and Conoco Phillips have both agreed to become part owners and customers of Origin Energy's liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Queensland. This, by the way, was also a story that Kris Sayce was way out ahead of, and for the same reasons (a new market ready to be exploited by agile first and second movers). --Our own view, when it comes to the energy patch in Australia, is that all the low-hanging fruit has probably already been picked. When you see multi-nationals and oil majors splashing billions in cash, it means the smaller companies have already done a lot of the groundwork in establishing the viability of the business. It's an easy way for larger companies to add to reserves without doing their own exploration. --If you're going to make money on tangible energy assets that haven't yet been revauled, you're going to have to either take a punt on much smaller exploration companies that have not been "de-risked" or do something else. We'll get to the "something else" in a moment. But just remember, the "de-risking" of a project is littered with landmines that could blow up a share price (again in the negative way). You may get rewarded for your risk...just be sure you know what you're getting into. --As for the "something else," look for other unconventional energy projects that are not LNG. There is a whole development model for one such industry that's already established. It worked a treat in the States for increasing natural gas supply and driving up small companies hundreds of percent. That's the story we told in the last issue of Australian Wealth Gameplan. --That's a brief and incomplete look at how some of the team here in St Kilda are using the share market to hedge against everyone else being doomed. Tomorrow, we'll explore the doom more fully, including famine, pestilence, and war. And we'll see if there's really any way to ride with three of the four horsemen to higher profits, or if it's a bad idea to saddle up with that gang at all. Until then.... Dan Denning |
| Special report: The biggest company you never heard of Posted: 27 Feb 2011 10:20 AM PST Now who is to say that they didn't sell the living shit out of the traget prior to assuming control???? POS's anyway.........Can you say, too big for their britches? Special report: The biggest company you never heard of 02/25/2011 Logos are seen in front of Swiss commodities trader Glencore building in Baar near Zurich January 5, 2010. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann Logos are seen in front of Swiss commodities trader Glencore building in Baar near Zurich January 5, 2010. Credit: Reuters/Christian Hartmann By Eric Onstad, Laura MacInnis and Quentin Webb BAAR, SWITZERLAND | Fri Feb 25, 2011 7:52am EST BAAR, SWITZERLAND (Reuters) - On Christmas Eve 2008, in the depths of the global financial crisis, Katanga Mining accepted a lifeline it could not refuse. The Toronto-listed company had lost 97 percent of its market value over the previous six months and was running out of cash. Needing to finance its mining projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo -- a country which has some of the world's richest reserves of copper and cobalt -- Katanga's executives had sounded the alarm and made a string of calls for help. Global credit was drying up, the copper market had fallen 70 percent in just five months, and Congo -- still struggling to recover from a civil war that killed some five million people - was the last place an investor wanted to be. One company, though, was interested. Executives in the wealthy Swiss village of Baar, working in the wood-panelled conference rooms in Glencore International's white metallic headquarters, did their sums and were prepared to make a deal. Their terms were simple. They wanted control. For about $500 million in a convertible loan and rights issue, Katanga agreed to issue more than a billion new shares and hand what would become a stake of 74 percent to Glencore, the world's biggest commodities trading group. Today, with copper prices regularly setting records above $10,000 a tone, Katanga's stock market value is nearly $3.2 billion. Deals like Katanga have helped turn Glencore into Switzerland's top-grossing company and earned it comparisons with investment banking giant Goldman Sachs. In the world of physical trading -- buying, transporting and selling the basic stuff the world needs -- Glencore is omnipresent and controversial, just as Goldman is in banking. Bigger than Nestle, Novartis and UBS in terms of revenues, Glencore's network of 2,000 traders, lawyers, accountants and other staff in 40 countries gives it real-time market and political intelligence on everything from oil markets in Central Asia to what sugar's doing in southeast Asia. Young, arrogant, and often brilliant, its staff dominate their market. The firm's top executives have forged alliances with Russian oligarchs and well-connected African mining magnates. Like Goldman, Glencore uses its considerable heft to extract the best possible terms in every deal it does. Some might add that Glencore also fits the description that Rolling Stone magazine gave to Goldman: "a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity". Sometime in the coming weeks, Glencore is likely to announce its Initial Public Offering. The firm currently operates as a privately held partnership, with staff sharing the profits according to a performance-based incentives scheme. Sources familiar with Glencore's plans say it may list 20 percent of the company, possibly split between the London Stock Exchange and Hong Kong. Such a listing could yield up to $16 billion and value the firm at as much as $60 billion. Fueled by the lofty prices in many of the raw materials that Glencore buys, mines, ships and sells, the float would be among the biggest in London's history. It could launch the firm onto the FTSE 100 index alongside resource giants such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, and Royal Dutch Shell and from there into the pension funds and investment portfolios of millions of people who know virtually nothing about the secretive giant. It would also represent a huge payday for investment banks -- perhaps $300 to $400 million, according to estimates by Freeman & Co., a mergers and acquisitions consultancy. At the same time, it would force a company that for four decades has thrived outside the limelight to reveal some of its secrets. Can it withstand becoming a household name? Does it risk losing its prized traders? Given Glencore's impeccable timing in deals, is an IPO a certain sign that we've reached the top of the commodities cycle? "Their knowledge of the flow of commodities around the world is truly frightening," says an outsider who has worked closely with senior Glencore officials and who, like most people interviewed by Reuters for this report, declined to be identified speaking about the company for fear it could jeopardize sensitive business relationships. Glencore executives declined to comment on the record, though the company did issue a statement about its current disclosure policy. UNDER THE RADAR Nestling in a lakeside village in Switzerland's low-tax canton of Zug, Glencore's starkly modern headquarters reflect a culture where trading aggression is coupled with public discretion. In front of the building a simple concrete sculpture -- a sphere spinning atop a pyramid -- hints at Glencore's global reach. Inside, the hushed hallways are adorned with modern art, the offices eerily quiet. much more here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...71O1DC20110225 |
| Tits and tats of the Bears part 4 Video starting to roll in...? QE2: The Road to a Gold Standard Posted: 27 Feb 2011 10:07 AM PST Here is Jim Willie's newest article. Maybe he watched part 4 of my bears collection? Wasn't everyone laughing at part 4? Oh but now everyone wants to write about a PM's backed currencies and I see a ton of shit about tungsten now in different articles.... Eat it bitchez. http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/feb232011.html You know how to thank me my loyal friends |
| Posted: 27 Feb 2011 10:04 AM PST #1 According to Gallup, the U.S. unemployment rate is currently 10.3 percent. When you add in part-time American workers that want full-time employment, that number rises to 20.2 percent. #2 According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job openings in the United States declined for a second straight month during December. #3 There are currently more than 4 million Americans that have been unemployed for more than a year. #4 The number of Americans that have become so discouraged that they have given up searching for work completely now stands at an all-time high. #5 Gasoline prices in the United States recently hit a 28-month high. #6 During the 4th quarter of 2010, 4.63 percent of all U.S. home loans were in foreclosure. That matched the all-time high, and it was up significantly from 4.39 percent in the 3rd quarter. #7 It is estimated that there are about 5 million homeowners in the United States that are at least two months behind on their mortgages, and it is being projected that over a million American families will be booted out of their homes this year alone. #8 Almost 14 percent of all credit card accounts in the United States are currently 90 days or more delinquent. #9 The average credit card rate in the United States had increased to a whopping 13.44 percent at the end of 2010. #10 Americans now owe more than $890 billion on student loans, which is even more than they owe on credit cards. #11 Average household debt in the United States has now reached a level of 136% of average household income. In China, average household debt is only 17% of average household income. #12 U.S. life expectancy at birth is now three years less than Canada and four years less than Japan. #13 New home sales in the state of California were at the lowest level ever recorded in the month of January. #14 43 percent of all mortgages in south Florida are currently underwater. #15 Prior to the most recent economic downturn, there were usually somewhere around four to five million job openings in America. Today there are about 3 million. #16 When you adjust wages for inflation, middle class workers in the United States make less money today than they did back in 1971. #17 One out of every seven Americans is now on food stamps. #18 One out of every six elderly Americans now lives below the federal poverty line. http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...nomic-recovery Always a very interesting list produced by this site every so often. |
| Got Gold Report – Silver Shortage in Full Bloom Posted: 27 Feb 2011 10:00 AM PST Two weeks ago we finished our intro by saying: "There are signs of uncommon but somewhat hidden strength underneath precious metals, the footprints of which are likely not readily apparent to casual observers." Since then reports of extremely tight supply in silver persist, silver has rallied big, silver futures stay in historic backwardation and some veteran market observers are now thinking that a true supply squeeze is underway in the small silver market. |
| Goldcorp Coins It in the Gold Trade Posted: 27 Feb 2011 10:00 AM PST Goldcorp's average cost is $274/ounce, giving it elephantine profit margins that enabled it to bring in a net $791 million in profits last year. Costs are growing at 6% a year, well below the 15% industry average. The company just doubled its dividend. |
| SPX, Oil, Silver & Geopolitical Risk Posted: 27 Feb 2011 10:00 AM PST While this week was shortened due to the President's Day holiday, it has been quite a ride for traders and investors. The 24-hour news cycle intensifies market conditions as any news focusing on oil or the Middle East protests moves markets. |
| February Sees Gold Up 6%, Silver 19% Posted: 27 Feb 2011 10:00 AM PST The paper-driven sell off in the gold market seen in January has been trumped by continuing robust physical demand in January and February. This has resulted in gold rising in February and silver's strong industrial and investment demand. |
| How Much More Demand Can Silver Handle? Posted: 27 Feb 2011 09:35 AM PST The numbers for silver demand are starting to make some market-watchers nervous. The US Mint sold over 6.4 million silver Eagles in January, more than any other month since the coin's introduction in 1986. China's net imports of silver quadrupled in 2010, to 122.6 million ounces, roughly 13.7% of global production. Meanwhile, mine production can't meet worldwide demand; the only way demand gets fulfilled is from scrap supply. That is some very hungry demand. Which raises the question, how long can this pace continue? This question is important for various reasons, starting with how demand contributes to price. If demand falls off, silver investments would obviously suffer. While I've discussed the concern regarding the lack of supply before, which has its own implications for the silver market, let's focus on investment demand. Frankly, is there room for it to continue to grow? After all, how long can investors continue to set records? There are a number of ways to measure this - the amount of money available to invest, its percent of total financial assets, its contrast to demand in the last bull market, etc. - but I think the bottom line to answering the question is to compare the biggest silver investments to some popular equities. If they rival that of the stocks we always see on the news and analysts constantly talk about and every fund manager wants to own, then it might be reasonable to assume demand could be nearing its pinnacle. So how do the world's largest silver ETF and one of the biggest silver producers compare to the more fashionable equities?
The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, has net assets of $9.6 billion (as of February 4). This pales in comparison to the more popular stocks trading in the US. In fact, SLV has roughly 3% the market cap of Apple. It would have to grow over 43 times to match Exxon Mobil. Pan American Silver, the largest pure silver producer trading on a major US exchange, has a market cap of $3.72 billion. This is 4.7% the size of McDonald's. The market cap would have to increase more than 53 times to match Wal-Mart. It is over 62 times smaller than Microsoft. This isn't to suggest SLV and PAAS will match the market cap of these other companies, but clearly the masses are still demanding much more of them than the biggest of silver's investment vehicles. So how much more demand can silver handle? As much as it takes to make it the household name I'm convinced it will be before this is all over. When SLV is a favorite of fund managers. When Silver Wheaton is a market darling of the masses. When Pan American is Wall Street's top pick for the year. Imagine what those bars on the right will look like when most everyone you know is talking about poor man's gold. The rise could be breathtaking. Remember that silver rose over 3,646% from trough to peak in the last precious metals bull market; it's up about 630% in our current run. A return matching the 1970s advance would push the price to $152. This price level is further supported by the fact that this is about where it would be when inflation-adjusted for its 1980 peak. When you look at the potential growth in market cap of the world's biggest silver investments, it becomes easy to view any downdraft in price as nothing but a buying opportunity. I know I do. Regards, Jeff Clark |
| Posted: 27 Feb 2011 09:34 AM PST Actually, they're up. :biggrin: NYMEX silver up 60 cents to $33.50, gold at $1,414.   |
| Silver — Over or Under-Valued? Posted: 27 Feb 2011 09:25 AM PST From the Daily Reckoning is this perspective on Silver. Whether it is over or under valued is your call. However, these numbers provide one basis for making a judgment. How Much More Demand Can Silver Handle? by Jeff Clark The numbers for silver demand are starting to make some market-watchers nervous. The US Mint sold over [...] |
| GOLDEN FIREWORKS ARE ABOUT TO BEGIN Posted: 27 Feb 2011 02:47 AM PST The gold bull is now on the verge of launching the most spectacular up leg of this 10 year bull market. This spring we should see the final parabolic rally of the massive C-wave advance that began in April `09 with a test of the 1980 high at $860. First off let me explain gold's 4 wave pattern (and no it has nothing to do with Elliot wave). Gold moves in an ABCD wave pattern, driven not only by the fundamentals of the gold market (which I will get into in a minute) but also by the emotions of gold investors and the thin nature of the precious metals market. The A-wave is an advancing wave that begins and is driven by the extremely oversold conditions created during a D-wave decline (more on that in a second). A-waves can often test the all time highs but rarely move above them. Usually they will retrace a good chunk of a D-wave decline. The B-wave is a corrective wave spawned by the extreme overbought conditions reached at an A-wave top. The C-wave is where the monster gains are made. They can last up to a year or more. The current C-wave is now almost two years old. They invariably end in a massive parabolic surge as investors and traders chase a huge momentum driven rally. Of course as we all know parabolic rallies are not sustainable. So the final C-wave rally ends up toppling over into a severe D-wave correction as the parabola collapses. This is about the time we hear the conspiracy theorists start crying manipulation. In reality all that has happened is that smart money is taking profits into a move that they know can't be sustained. Then the entire process begins again.  Next, let me show you the fundamental driver of the secular gold bull. It's probably no surprise to most of you that the Fed's ongoing debasement of the dollar is one of the main drivers of this bull. But let me take this one step further and show you how the dollar's three year cycle drives these major C-wave advances and how the move down into the dollar's three year cycle low always drives a final parabolic C-wave rally. Let's begin with a long term chart of the dollar. I've marked the last 7 three year cycle lows with blue arrows. The average duration from trough to trough is about 3 years and 3 months. As you can see the dollar is now moving into the timing band for that major spike down in the next 2 to 3 months.  The extreme left translated nature (topped in less than 18 months) of the current cycle gives high odds that the final low when it arrives will move below the last three year cycle low. That means that sometime between now and the end of May we should see the dollar fall below the March `08 low of 70.70. That crash down into the final three year cycle low will drive the final parabolic move up in gold's ongoing C-wave advance. Every major leg down in the dollar has driven a major leg up in gold since the bull began. I really doubt this time will be any different.  I will be watching the dollar over the next couple of months for signs that the three year cycle low has been made. Because once the dollar bottoms and begins the explosive rally that always follows a major three year cycle low it will initiate the severe D-wave correction in the gold market. Gold investors will want to exit at the top of the C-wave if at all possible and avoid getting caught in the D-wave decline. There is a developing pattern on the gold chart that once it reaches its target will be a strong warning for traders and investors to exit so they don't get caught in the D-wave profit taking event as the parabola collapses. This T1 pattern is a four part pattern with the first and second legs up being almost equal in magnitude, separated by a midpoint consolidation that allows the 200 day moving average to "catch up". The current T1 has a target of roughly $1650ish once gold breaks out of the consolidation zone.  The fourth part of the pattern is the D-wave correction which should retrace to test the consolidation zone between $1300 and $1425. At that point the next A-wave will begin and we'll repeat the whole process all over again. Let me be clear though. I have no desire to buy gold. I doubt I will ever buy another ounce of gold again. The real money will be made in silver during this final C-wave advance and in the miners (I prefer silver miners). During the last major moves higher in the gold market, miners, which are leveraged to the price of gold, stretched 35% to 45% above the 200 day moving average. At the latest peak the HUI was only 25% above the mean - a strong clue that this was not the final C-wave top.  Silver has been exhibiting exceptional strength compared to gold for 7 months now. The consolidation on the silver chart is much larger than on the gold or gold miner charts. I expect that massive consolidation to drive silver up to test the old 1980 high of $50 by the time gold puts in its final C-wave top.  I've been helping investors time the gold and silver bull for several years now. If you are the kind of person that needs a coach to keep you focused on the big picture, someone to cut through the meaningless noise of all the myriad top callers and bubble proponents, someone to show you how these long and intermediate term cycles operate so you can actually make money from the gold bull, I have an invaluable offer for you. For those of you that need a coach and want to learn how the gold bull works, I'm going to make available, this week, a special 15 month subscription. For the regular price of one year I will add three free months to your subscription which includes the daily and weekend reports. To take advantage of this offer, click here. Choose a username and password and enter goldscents15 in the promotional code box, then click continue. You will be taken to a page with the 15 month offer. Now is the time to act before the bull comes roaring out of the gates and the golden fireworks begin.        |
| Kenny leads Fine Gael to win as Fianna Fáil vote collapses Posted: 26 Feb 2011 06:12 PM PST Fine Gael is poised to lead the next government and secure its best election result after the coalition parties in the outgoing government suffered an electoral meltdown. Fine Gael has secured 70 seats of the 153 seats filled so far. Labour is on 35 Fianna Fáil 18, Sinn Féin 13, ULA four and Independents 13. There are just 13 seats left to be filled in four constituencies... Read |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Gold World News Flash 2 To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment