Gold World News Flash |
- Pinetree Capital Releases January NAV: Stock at a 12.5% Discount
- Silver and Opium
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Rise Again
- An Imminent Silver Explosion? And Some More On Housing...
- How Higher Interest Rates Could Trigger Another 2008-Type Event
- The Markets Are On Borrowed Time
- Precious Metals and the Validity of Technical Analysis - Part 2
- “JPMorgan Chase has been trying to scare mining companies into selling future production of silver (and also gold) as a way to temporarily increase the supplies of metal on the market.”
- Gold Price Cleared it's 50 DMA Closing at $1,373.60, Gold Ought to Move Faster After $1,380
- Why Silver Sales Demand Excitement
- Backward Silver & Forward Weather
- Oaktree's $10 Billion Distressed Fund Returns Investor Capital, Runs Out Of Investing Ideas
- Gold rises to five-week high; copper declines
- Gold Investing "Strong 'Til May"
- Gold Investing "Strong 'Til May"
- History, QE and financial turmoil point to continuing gold strength
- Silver Backwardation: Why & Where Now?
- Gold Charts: False Signals
- Nelson Peltz Revives "Highly Contingent Letter" Acquisition Gimmick With Family Dollar
- Jim?s Mailbox
- In The News Today
- Healthy Correction Creates Bargain Opportunity in Precious Metals
- Healthy Correction For Gold Miners And Precious Metals In Secular Bull Market
- Jim's Mailbox
- The Only Trend That Matters
- Who’s Afraid of a Free Society?
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts
- Fed's gold bullish script…
- SKI Report #83: The New Gold Stock Phase Continues
- Time for Precious Metals Miners?
- A Big Money Playah Hammered PHYS Into the Close
- Lessons From Egypt For The American People
- This past week in gold - Feb 15, 2011
- The higher Silver and Gold go, my 90% all-in investment since 2002, the more firepower I have to take it to the AGW deniers. Crash JP Morgan, the Koch Brothers, and the whole stinkin lot of them.
- The higher Silver and Gold go (my 90% all-in investment since 2002) the more firepower I have to take it to the AGW deniers; Crash JP Morgan, the Koch Brothers and fuck the whole stinkin lot of them.
- Silver is Approaching Stage Two of its Bull Market
- Daring Us to Buy those Dips Again
- The Golden Tripod & The Crisis
- LGMR: Gold & Silver Jump as Middle East Unrest Spreads to Iran
- Comex gold rallies past $1,370/oz on inflation worries; fear of Middle East contagion
- Revolution or Musical Chairs?
- Gold, Long Bonds, The Only Trend That Matters
- Guest Post: Economy Flight 666 - Our One-Way Ticket To Zimbabwe
- Eye on Gold and Silver
- Bull Bear Market Report
- Rhodium Trading Thoughts
- James Turk interviews Hugo Salinas Price on silver and sound money
- Asian buyers aim to drain SLV's metal, King World News says
- Seven Steps the US Can Take to Reclaim the Nuclear Power Initiative
- Divisions threaten French hope for G20 policy deal
| Pinetree Capital Releases January NAV: Stock at a 12.5% Discount Posted: 15 Feb 2011 06:26 PM PST David Urban submits: Yesterday, Pinetree Capital (PNPFF.PK) announced that the non-GAAP, unaudited January 31 NAV is C$4.68. Currently the stock is trading for C$4.16 on the Canadian market, an approximately 12.5% discount to the non-GAAP, unaudited January 31 NAV. For those investors not familiar with Pinetree Capital, it is wise to give a brief background on the company and its history. Pinetree Capital was founded in 1992 by Sheldon Inwentash as a vehicle to invest in technology companies. After navigating the technology bubble Pinetree switched its focus to the precious metals area after realizing the potential China and emerging markets would have on the commodity and precious metals industries. Pinetree's strategy is to invest in companies with good potential properties at the seed level, continue to add investments as metrics are achieved, and follow them through the exploration process. Some of their current success stories include AfriOre Limited, Summit Resources, Gold Eagle, Aurelian Complete Story »
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| Posted: 15 Feb 2011 04:02 PM PST The British introduced opium along with tobacco as an export item to China in order to reduce their trade deficit. Under the disguise of free trade, the British, the Spanish and the French with the tacit approval of the Americans continued ... Read More...
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| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Rise Again Posted: 15 Feb 2011 04:00 PM PST Gold fell $1.25 to $1363.15 in Asia before it rose to as high as $1376.49 by about 8:30AM EST and then fell back off a bit into the close, but it still ended with a gain of 0.69%. Silver fell to $30.47 and rose to $30.918 before it also fell back off a bit, but it still ended with a gain of 0.69%.
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| An Imminent Silver Explosion? And Some More On Housing... Posted: 15 Feb 2011 02:11 PM PST With the ever-shrinking stockpile of physical silver, as evidenced by the unusual degree of backwardation in the price structure of silver futures, the noose is clearly tightening around the necks of the bullion bank(s), which are short an absurd amount of silver. I haven't seen anyone write about this yet, so maybe my thinking is out of whack, but there also seems to be another inverse head-and-shoulders forming in the daily silver chart. Here see for yourself: (click on chart to enlarge)  It's there - see it? The last inverse HnS formation was formed roughly from late 2009 to April 2010. It then consolidated sideways until August 2010, when it exploded up to $30 - A 67% move. It would appear that this inverse HnS is forming around the $30 level. We have no way of knowing how long it will take to either fail or resolve with another big move higher. However, given that the basic supply/demand fundamentals, plus the underlying monetary fundamentals which are fueling gold and silver, are even stronger now than during all of 2010, I am placing my bet on a much higher price of silver sometime during 2011. I have to say that I am quite excited by the reports, if they are true, about some big silver mining companies hedging out some of their production. On one hand, it's not an imprudent business decision to lock-in some profits and create some predicability in the revenue stream. On the other hand, just like Barrick and Anglo-Ashanti, these silver mining companies will likely lose a lot of money on their hedges. And this will create a massive short-cover bid in the future that will drive the price of silver even higher. Most of you have likely already seen this article about some Asian buyers who are taking a big position in SLV as a means of accumulating a lot of silver (with SLV you can convert your shares if you own, a minimum very large amount, into the delivery of physical silver held by the trust, assuming the silver is not leased out or otherwise encumbered), but here's the link in case you have not had a chance to read this: LINK Now for a quick update on housing. There was an article on Sunday in the New York Times which discussed how the housing crash is starting to affect cities that were previously thought to be immune from big price declines. Ya know, I can't tell you how many people with whom I've chatted over the past couple of years always have a reason why their block/neighborhood/city/State will not be hit by the housing crisis. It's usually 3/4's denial and 1/4 stupidity. To be sure, some areas will decline less than others - after all, there are factors which foster "relative" value - but this still has long way to go and a lot lower to fall - everywhere. My favorite discussion is when someone in Denver tells me their 'hood really hasn't lost value. And then I have to ask them if they knew that Denver is ranked 10th in terms foreclosures. Of course, they have no idea. Then I have to suggest they find a new realtor who will tell the truth or have them go look at some actual sales in their 'hood. Anyway, here's the article from Sunday Times (the NYT requires an account so I copied the article and pdf'd it): Finally, after the Nat'l Assoc of Homebuilder's sentiment index was released today, I happened to catch this article about the poor outlook for new home sales: Homebuilders have yet to see a turnaround in the housing market after the worst year for new-home sales in a half-century. Here's the LINK I hate to keep belaboring the point about housing, but a lot of people who are not underwater on their mortgage and can still make their payments think that the market will stabilize and the worst is over. Sorry, this is going to get a lot worse than any of us can imagine...And I insist on continuing to post all of the evidence that is available in the published data in an attempt to proliferate the truth... 
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| How Higher Interest Rates Could Trigger Another 2008-Type Event Posted: 15 Feb 2011 01:12 PM PST
Higher interest rates are coming and coming fast. The Fed has spent Trillions trying to lower interest rates (more on this in a moment), and it’s now officially lost control of the long-end of the Treasury market.
This will have ENORMOUS implications for the US housing market and financial system. Housing prices will be collapsing in the coming months as interest rates soar. We could also very well see another 2008-type event (a collapse of the US Financial System) as well.
Why?
Derivatives.
In 2008, the entire financial system nearly went under due to the Credit Default Swap market which was $50-60 Trillion in size. In contrast, the interest-rate based derivatives market is $196 TRILLION in size: more than THREE times larger than the credit default swap market at hits peak.
At this size you only need a very small percentage of these derivatives to be “at risk” (meaning real money is bet on them), say 5% to get $10 trillion in potential losses. To put that number into perspective, the entire WORLD STOCK MARKET is only $36 trillion in size.
See the potential risk here?
To say that the US financial system is in danger would be a HUGE understatement. It is the derivatives market, NOT the housing market that has the Fed concerned.
Sure, the Fed claims it’s engaging in QE and other tactics to help housing, but this is just a political move aimed at quelling the US public’s growing outrage. You can tell this because of the fact that interest rates have in fact JUMPED every time the Fed engaged in QE:
There is no way any human being could claim that QE is about helping housing prices. It is aimed entirely at funneling TRILLIONS of Dollars to the Wall Street banks. Why?
Because these are the banks with the GREATEST derivatives exposure.
Trust me, Ben Bernanke is well aware of this situation. Even his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, knew about it as far back as 1999. At that time he told Brooksley Borne that attempting to rein in the derivatives market and forcing it to pass through a public clearinghouse would “implode” the market.
Remember, QE is all about the Fed buying Treasuries FROM the Wall Street banks. In this sense it’s nothing more than an effort to remove assets from their balance sheets in exchange for cash. And that’s exactly what it’s supposed to be: an attempt to shore up the Wall Street banks MASSIVE derivative exposure.
This is why the Fed keeps launching more and more QE programs despite the clear fact that it has failed to accomplish any of its publicly stated goals: boosting employment, lowering interest rates, etc. Bernanke knows if he doesn’t keep the billions in weekly capital infusions to the Wall Street banks that the entire system will come crashing down.
Be aware, the issues that caused 2008 are still in play. If Bernanke loses control of interest rates on the short and long end its GAME. SET. MATCH. for the US Financial System.
Prepare Accordingly,
Graham Summers
PS. If you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.
I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).
Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.
PPS. We ALSO publish a FREE Special Report on Inflation detailing three investments that have all already SOARED as a result of the Fed’s monetary policy. You can access this Report at the link above.
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| The Markets Are On Borrowed Time Posted: 15 Feb 2011 01:06 PM PST
Emerging Markets, which have lead the S&P 500 for years are flashing MAJOR warnings signals.
Remember, the Emerging markets bottomed before the S&P 500 (November 2008 vs. March 2009) during the Crash.
Emerging markets ALSO lead the S&P 500 during the April 2010 top by roughly one month (they topped in early April while the S&P 500 topped at the end of April):
Finally, Emerging markets ALSO bottomed before the S&P 500 during the rally from the summer of 2010 until now:
Another market leader flashing a major red flag is Gold, which has ALSO lead the S&P 500 since the 2008 Crash:
As was the case with the Emerging Markets, Gold bottomed in November 2008, leading the S&P 500 by roughly three months. Which is why I want to emphasize that Gold has already begun a significant correction today while the S&P 500 continues its melt-up.
This is yet another serious warning sign that US stocks are on borrowed time. Be on guard, we could be putting in a MAJOR top soon.
Good Investing!
Graham Summers
PS. If you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.
I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).
Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.
PPS. We ALSO publish a FREE Special Report on Inflation detailing three investments that have all already SOARED as a result of the Fed’s monetary policy. You can access this Report at the link above.
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| Precious Metals and the Validity of Technical Analysis - Part 2 Posted: 15 Feb 2011 01:00 PM PST The first part of our series on the validity of Technical analysis, covered the changes in types and location of investors. It also detailed those markets called gold markets, but which are not directly of fully involved in the buying and selling of gold. This laid the foundation of why technical analysis has not proved as accurate as some maintain. Many investors may believe that all one needs to be successful in a market is technical analysis. We would disagree with that when we look at the markets in gold and silver.
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| Posted: 15 Feb 2011 12:04 PM PST
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| Gold Price Cleared it's 50 DMA Closing at $1,373.60, Gold Ought to Move Faster After $1,380 Posted: 15 Feb 2011 11:40 AM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1373.60 Change : 9.00 or 0.7% Silver Price Close Today : 30.693 Change : 0.164 cents or 0.5% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 44.75 Change : 0.054 or 0.1% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02234 Change : -0.000027 or -0.1% Platinum Price Close Today : 1830.10 Change : -1.40 or -0.1% Palladium Price Close Today : 837.60 Change : 4.85 or 0.6% S&P 500 : 1,328.01 Change : -4.31 or -0.3% Dow In GOLD$ : $184.00 Change : $ (1.82) or -1.0% Dow in GOLD oz : 8.901 Change : -0.088 or -1.0% Dow in SILVER oz : 398.35 Change : -1.38 or -0.3% Dow Industrial : 12,226.64 Change : -41.55 or -0.3% US Dollar Index : 78.59 Change : -0.020 or 0.0% The GOLD PRICE cleared its 50 DMA today ($1,372.27, my criterion yesterday) so I can't fight it any longer. Next fence lies at $1,380, and gold ought to move faster now. A failure here -- a sudden drop back to $1,340 -- would look bad, but there's no hint that might happen. Gold added $9.00 on Comex, closing at $1,373.60. The SILVER PRICE smashed down the 3065c gate and rose 16.4c to 3069.3c on Comex. Okay, I am not imagining this. Silver appears to have completed a move up from 2980c, so tomorrow ought to be a down day, but not below 3040c. And ANOTHER thing that the Internet Silver Cheerleaders haven't noticed is that the buy-side wholesale premium for US 90% silver coin is a negative 75c. Whatever else that says, it surely screams that plenty of silver is ready for sale. In all fairness that premium can drop while silver is rising, but a higher premium would indicate more buyers, and more buyers bring more upward buying pressure. And anent that "backwardation:" there remaineth no backwardation (although a very flat contango) in the silver futures through December 2011. However, the very distant months, out in 2013, 2014, and 2015, are backwardated to February 2011. What exactly does that say? Oftentimes trading in those very distant months is so thin that the price trails the closer months. I don't know whether that is happening or not, but it might explain it. My doubts will continue to fester until SILVER and GOLD confirm each other and their rally with new highs in both metals. I'm trying hard not to be stubborn (a really TALL job for anyone who's Scotch-Irish), but truth is, I have a really strange way of learning: I learn by making mistakes. Yes, more expensive than a University education, but also more lasting. And I have too many times been taken in, fooled, and had my pockets picked by double tops. Thus even one as stubborn as I learneth over time to buy the bottom of a range, or the breakout above a range, but never the little area right up under the resistance. Silver this week ought to challenge that 3109 high from 3 January. That will be fish or cut bait time. Mercy! If y'all have never seen a Tennessee morning looking across the bare fields thru a blue haze to the trees with their limbs raised in halleluiahs you can almost hear, y'all have not yet lived. Y'all probably ought to just listen to what I say and pay no attention to what I do. I can't shake this out of synch-ness. I don't know whether I am just committed to my own opinion and "talking my position", or whether my suspicions might have some ground. Today ought to have shredded them. "Talking your position" happens when somebody takes a losing position and keeps talking it up in the face of events, or, in the case of stock brokers and financial salesmen, when they are selling you on the inventory they want to move like a dying man wants a drink of water. The Dollar Index didn't move enough today to affect the price of anything. It lost 2 basis points (did you say TWO basis points?) to end at 78.594. That's okay, because all it needed to do was hold above 78.50. If the dollar has indeed traced out an upside-down head and shoulders, then tomorrow and rest of the week it shouldn't drop below 78.50. Almost all stock indices fell today, the Dow for the second straight day. What? Well, look at the five-day chart. Friday shows a peak above 12,280, followed the next two days by lower lows and lower highs. Dow dropped 41.55 points to 12,226.64 and S&P lost 4.31 at 1,328.01. A Dow close below 12,160 could push the snow-ball downhill. 20 day moving average awaits at 12,051.86. A kind reader wrote yesterday to fill up the hole in my vocabulary with the wonderful word METASTABILITY. That's the market condition I described yesterday, where an equilibrium seems to rule, but in truth it is only a delicate balance of fiercely opposing forces. When one side's foot is pushed back just a little, big change follows. On this day in 1971 Great Britain switched to a decimal-based currency, abandoning the sensible and division-friendly system of 240 pence to the pound (20 shillings of 12 pence each) in effect since Anglo Saxon times, no, that's wrong, since ROMAN times. Think about it. You divide a 100 pence pound by 20 or 10 or 5 or 2, but not by 3 or 6 or 12. A 240 pence pound you can divide by 20, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 3, or 2 and never end up with 2.5 or 16-1/6 or 33-1/3. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066 © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't. 
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| Why Silver Sales Demand Excitement Posted: 15 Feb 2011 11:33 AM PST Being a Big Silver Buff (BSB) like I am, I note the ups and downs of silver. Lately, it's been mostly the downs. This strange downtrend in the silver price makes me look like an idiot after I so arrogantly Highly, Highly Recommended (HHR) that people buy silver, buy silver, buy silver all these years, and I'm pretty testy about it, too. I mean, the sheer fundamentals of silver make me giddy with excitement that, thanks to the manipulation of silver prices via the commodity futures since (by one estimate) 1983, the low market price of silver is an unbelievable, unbelievable bargain. And, apparently, a lot of other people think so, too, as in his essay, "Silver Eagle Sales Hit Their Second-Highest Ever", Addison Wiggin, Publisher of The Daily Reckoning reported that "The US Mint sold 6,422,000 Silver Eagles in January 2011 – half again as many as were sold in the previous record-setting month of November 2010." You can see by the way my hands are shaking with excitement that I am titi...
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| Backward Silver & Forward Weather Posted: 15 Feb 2011 11:04 AM PST
BACKWARD
 ******************************* FORWARD There is some fairly conclusive information that short-term weather patterns are changing. The evidence is in the most recent ENSO numbers. The extreme La Nina conditions that have brought so much pain to Australia (and other parts of the globe) are in the process of abating. 
The updated (December-January) MEI value has strengthened slightly to -1.62 standard deviations after almost dropping below -2 standard deviations in August-September.
After a drop to +2 in June, July rebounded to +20.5, followed by values between +16 (November) and +27 (December), including +20 in January 2011. The last time that this index showed higher values for the average of any six months was during the same half-year in 1917(!), so any SOI-based classification would classify this event as one the second-strongest event of the last century
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| Oaktree's $10 Billion Distressed Fund Returns Investor Capital, Runs Out Of Investing Ideas Posted: 15 Feb 2011 10:30 AM PST
And so our bureau of central planning has once again made distressed investing a relic of the past. Famous distressed PM Bruce Karsh, who runs Oaktree's distressed investment fund, has just decided to return $3 billion of the fund's $10 billion previously raised from investors due to a lack of investing opportunities. Basically, in preventing failure for a select few, Bernanke made failure impossible for everyone (which begs the question: how long before the specialized restructuring boutiques of the world - the Houlihan Lokeys, the Miller Buckfires, and the Alix Partners, continue to exist, let alone sustain on IPO any time now hopes). So after Bernanke destroyed long/short, sometimes incorrectly called "value", investing, he has now eliminated another formerly profitable vertical of the market that rewarded spotting arbitrage opportunities. The only funds that will remain soon as the Long-onlies and the momos of the world - also known the dumbest money imaginable. And when this whole thing crashes, and only shorts would be able to make money, there will be no-one making money, as there will be no capital available to short strategies. Bernanke's plan of killing all the bears has succeeded. Next up: it's the bulls turn. From the FT:
Uh, no. Further liquidity measures are extremely likely if the Fed wishes to prevent America's insolvency, which now has in addition to endless money, also gotten addicted to even more endless debt monetization. As demonstrated earlier, China has now been a net seller of US debt for two years running. Who will replace them: Egypt? Iran? Greece? We can't wait to hear Mr. Rauch's answer.
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| Gold rises to five-week high; copper declines Posted: 15 Feb 2011 10:13 AM PST By Claudia Assis Gold for April delivery added $9 to $1,374.10 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was gold's highest settlement since Jan. 13. … In addition to being jittery about the Middle East, investors were also piling up on gold at the expense of equities, said James Cordier, a portfolio manager at Optionsellers.com in Florida. Money was "looking for a home and it found a home in the gold market," he said. Many investors think the equities market came up too soon, too fast, and have left the trade, Cordier added. … Billionaire investor George Soros's fund has increased holdings in exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust , the largest ETF backed by gold, according to a late Monday regulatory filing. Soros increased his stake in the ETF by 24,800 shares to 4.7 million shares worth more than $600 million. [source]
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| Gold Investing "Strong 'Til May" Posted: 15 Feb 2011 10:09 AM PST |
| Gold Investing "Strong 'Til May" Posted: 15 Feb 2011 10:09 AM PST |
| History, QE and financial turmoil point to continuing gold strength Posted: 15 Feb 2011 10:05 AM PST by David Levenstein … The existing global financial system depends on the widespread use of fiat currencies issued by insolvent governments. And, in a fiat currency system, governments can merrily print as much money as they like. But, the consequence of such policies will inevitably be the erosion of wealth. As the Federal Reserve continues to debase the value of the dollar the prices of commodities are going to rise. … At the moment, approximately $14 trillion US dollars are held by the rest of world. The value of these dollar assets looks extremely precarious, and as much as they would like to, the holders of this debt are unable to dump their holdings in case they cause a panic in the financial markets. China, now the biggest holder of this debt after the US has the most to lose. So in an attempt to lessen their exposure to this debt China is moving into other assets, gold being one of them. It is therefore no surprise that it has become the largest producer of gold in the world as it accumulates as much as it can of this precious metal. … Recently, China Investment Corp. Vice Chairman Gao Xiqing said that central banks' quantitative easing policies are hurting the value of money. "You know money is gradually becoming not worth the paper it's printed on," Gao said at an event sponsored by HSBC Holdings Plc at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Recent gains in commodity and food prices reflect the "long-term view" of investors that prices will accelerate, he said. The Fed and the European Central Bank have kept their benchmark interest rates at record lows to spur their economic recoveries…. "We've started collecting Zimbabwe notes," Gao said, referring to an economy whose currency was scrapped in 2009 after inflation reached ridiculous levels. He noted investors are also discussing whether central banks will pursue more rounds of quantitative easing. Through difficult times and times of plenty, gold endures. And, in today's economic times as politicians lead us to a period of financial destruction, and as the purchasing power of the major currencies continue to decline, the purchasing power of gold will remain remarkably stable. This is why so many investors see gold as the "ultimate asset." Make sure you have some gold in your investment portfolio. [source]
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| Silver Backwardation: Why & Where Now? Posted: 15 Feb 2011 10:04 AM PST |
| Posted: 15 Feb 2011 09:56 AM PST |
| Nelson Peltz Revives "Highly Contingent Letter" Acquisition Gimmick With Family Dollar Posted: 15 Feb 2011 09:55 AM PST
After close today, Trian Fund Management, Nelson Peltz' asset management company, filed a 13D indicating the fund had amassed a 10 million (7.9%) share stake in FDO, and more importantly, expressed a vague, preliminary, non-binding and highly-contingent interest in acquiring discount retailer Family Dollar (closing regular hours at $44). As the proposed price indicated in the letter is $55-60, the shares are expectedly surging, meaning the letter alone resulted in nearly a 20% ($13) gain for Peltz 10 million share investment: $130 million for a few minutes worth of work: not bad. Yet is this anything more than a red herring? After all these kinds of fully contingent letters were all the rage during the bubble years, when funds would "express a purchase interest" with so many contingencies Arnold could drive his Hummer through all the "outs." As soon as the stock surged, the letter writer (and more often than not, the cabal of silent co-investors) would cash out, and slowly the buying interest would evaporate, with the price slowly dropping back to historical levels. In fact, for Trian this is not the first time - the company did an almost identical thing with Chemtura back in 2008, only to completely leave the company in March of 2009, months ahead of CEM's filing for bankruptcy (resulting in major losses for Trian). Which is why we urge readers to be very careful before chasing into FDO stock here: we are very concerned that this is nothing more than simply another attempt on behalf of Trian to stir up buying interest in which to sell its 10mm holdings with no real acquisition interest, since with all the non-binding clauses it is extremely difficult to take this letter seriously. Key section from 13D below:
In other words, this is nothing more than the weakest form of a "highly confident" purchase letter with 1001 outs. Yet for Trian the mission has been accomplished: $130 million in minutes without any operational or balance sheet risk. The question is what happens to everyone else who blindly follows the wily manager into this quote unquote deal. And lastly, for those who wonder where else Peltz may pursue a comparable "red herring" strategy, here is a summary of the fund's most recent holdings:
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| Posted: 15 Feb 2011 09:52 AM PST View the original post at jsmineset.com... February 15, 2011 02:37 PM Greetings Jim, Gold closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new short-term high for the uptrend from late January. Technical indicators have strengthened further and are now moderately bullish overall on the daily chart, supporting the advance. Technical indicators on the Gold Currency Index (GCI) daily chart are moderately bullish as well, confirming the underlying strength of the developing uptrend. Today’s strong move higher signals that the latest Short-Term Cycle Low (STCL) likely occurred on February 11. If confirmed by follow-through during the next couple of sessions, the formation of the next STCL would be a very bullish development, as the completed cycle from late January would be right translated to an extreme degree, predicting a similar translation for the next cycle. Looking ahead to the end of the week, a strong close on Friday would essentially confirm that the latest Intermed...
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| Posted: 15 Feb 2011 09:52 AM PST View the original post at jsmineset.com... February 15, 2011 12:07 PM Dear CIGAs, The gold banks are fighting hard to keep the Armstrong Reaction in place. I will let you know when they lose. Top calling when you firmly believe gold will trade at $5000 is madness. Its only accomplishment is to take people out of their insurance at more than likely the exact wrong time. The Armstrong Reaction prediction was simply based on the top of an uptrend line and the low price as the bottom of a trend line. It you had applied that method to gold at $529.40 where it went into the first runaway, you never would have been in this market. Who is to say that $1372 might not start the second runaway in this market? At $529.40 I said STOP trading gold and that it was on its way to $1650. Since Armstrong keyed off this reaction at $1372, attempting to be a 4 month top caller, who is to say that $1372.00 is not a duplicate technically of $529.40? Jim Sinclair’s Commentary A note fro...
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| Healthy Correction Creates Bargain Opportunity in Precious Metals Posted: 15 Feb 2011 09:44 AM PST Jeb Handwerger submits: One of the most difficult decisions an investor must make is to determine if a turning point is of short-term or long-term consequence. The markets give subtle clues to students of the market of impeding danger and times of caution. A stock's reaction to news may tell us the authentic underlying strength. In November and December, gold, silver and mining stocks sold off on China raising rates and now in February they shrug off the news. Is that telling us the correction may be over? A break above the 50-day moving average will bring back the previous gold run. Often times in a secular uptrend news items are planted, causing short-term shakeouts, which often in retrospect are great buying opportunities. I have learned over time it is important to look at a long-term weekly chart and review the trend. If the trend is a normal healthy linear trend then most Complete Story »
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| Healthy Correction For Gold Miners And Precious Metals In Secular Bull Market Posted: 15 Feb 2011 09:39 AM PST One of the most difficult decisions an investor must make is to determine if a turning point is of short term or long term consequence. The markets give subtle clues to students of the market of impeding danger and times of caution. Read More...
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| Posted: 15 Feb 2011 09:37 AM PST Greetings Jim, Gold closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new short-term high for the uptrend from late January. Technical indicators have strengthened further and are now moderately bullish overall on the daily chart, supporting the advance.
Technical indicators on the Gold Currency Index (GCI) daily chart are moderately bullish as well, confirming the underlying strength of the developing uptrend.
Today's strong move higher signals that the latest Short-Term Cycle Low (STCL) likely occurred on February 11. If confirmed by follow-through during the next couple of sessions, the formation of the next STCL would be a very bullish development, as the completed cycle from late January would be right translated to an extreme degree, predicting a similar translation for the next cycle.
Looking ahead to the end of the week, a strong close on Friday would essentially confirm that the latest Intermediate-Term Cycle Low (ITCL) occurred in late January, forecasting 2 to 3 months of gains.
The bottoming scenario that we have been monitoring since mid January has unfolded almost exactly as anticipated. Now that a meaningful low is in place, we will need to see an eventual breakout to new all-time highs sometime during the next 4 to 6 weeks in order for the long-term uptrend to remain healthy. Best, CIGA Erik McCurdy
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| Posted: 15 Feb 2011 09:14 AM PST By Porter Stansberry with Braden Copeland Tuesday, February 15, 2011 We call it "the only trend that matters." It is the most important financial idea we could ever give to you. The fate of millions of Americans rests in a single market, where just one financial instrument trades, and… This market is collapsing. Its downfall began, as we predicted at the time, in late 2008. This single market determines our standard of living, our role in the world, and our prestige as a nation. It directly influences the price of food and oil. And that's not all… Most of the world's other markets depend on this market, too. The price of every fixed-income security in the world is based directly on this market. The prices of U.S. stocks depend on this market – not directly, but strongly in comparison. Most important, the U.S. dollar depends on this market. You see, foreign investors own trillions of this asset. As the market collapses, foreign investors wil...
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| Who’s Afraid of a Free Society? Posted: 15 Feb 2011 09:12 AM PST Last week, my new book, Rollback: Repealing Big Government Before the Coming Fiscal Collapse was released. It could just as easily have been called Everything Needs to Be Abolished, and Here's Why. The book does two things. First, it lays bare the true fiscal position of the U.S. government, and shows why some kind of default is not merely possible but inevitable. But this is not a book full of numbers about the impending collapse. The collapse is merely the jumping-off point. By far the more central part of the book is this: the critical first step for reversing this mess and checking the seemingly unstoppable federal advance is to stick a dagger through the heart of the myths by which government has secured the confidence and consent of the people. We know these myths by heart. Government acts on behalf of the public good. It keeps us safe. It protects us against monopolies. It provides indispensable services we could not provide for ourselves. Without it, America would be populated by illiterates, half of us would be dead from quack medicine or exploding consumer products, and the other half would lead a feudal existence under the iron fist of private firms that worked them to the bone for a dollar a week. Thus Americans tolerate much government predation because they have bought into the myth that state intervention may be an irritant, but the alternative of a free society would be far worse. They have been conditioned to believe that despite whatever occasional corruption they may observe in politics, the government by and large has their well-being at heart. Schoolchildren in particular learn a version of history worthy of Pravda. Governments, they are convinced, abolished child labor, gave people good wages and decent working conditions; protect them from bad food, drugs, airplanes, and consumer products; have cleaned their air and water; and have done countless other things to improve their well-being. They truly cannot imagine how anyone who isn't a stooge for industry could think differently, or how free people acting in the absence of compulsion and threats of violence – which is what government activity amounts to – might have figured out a way to solve these problems. The history of regulation is, in this fact-free version of events, a tale of righteous crusaders winning victories for the public against grasping and selfish private interests who care nothing for the common good. But let's suppose that the federal government has in fact been an enemy of the people's welfare, and that the progress in our living standards has occurred quite in spite of its efforts. It pits individuals, firms, industries, regions, races, and age groups against each other in a zero-sum game of mutual plunder. It takes credit for improvements in material conditions that we in fact owe to the private sector, while refusing to accept responsibility for the countless failures and social ills to which its own programs have given rise. Rather than bringing about the "public good," whatever that means, it governs us through a series of fiefdoms seeking bigger budgets and more power. Despite the veneer of public-interest rhetoric by which it camouflages its real nature, it is a mere parasite on productive activity and a net minus in the story of human welfare. Now if this is a more accurate depiction of the federal government, we are likely to have a different view of the consequences of the coming fiscal collapse. So an institution that has seized our wealth, held back the rise in our standard of living, and deceived schoolchildren into honoring it as the source of all progress, will have to be cut back? What's the catch? This is no calamity to be deplored. It is an opportunity to be seized. The primary purpose of the book, therefore, is to demonstrate that we would not only survive but even flourish in the absence of countless institutions we are routinely told we could not live without. And with the exception of the final chapter, that's what the rest of the book does. I wanted it to be a relentless presentation, such that even a skeptical reader would have to be impressed by the sheer number and force of the arguments. Some of the topics covered include: * Could we survive without the welfare state? One of the goals in writing my books has been to help get people up to speed on important issues as efficiently (and, I hope, enjoyably) as possible. (In fact, much of what I write comes down to this: what do I wish I myself had known 20 years ago, so that I wouldn't have had to come by all this information so laboriously on my own?) That way people can more easily prepare themselves to answer many of the most common objections to their position they are likely to encounter. That's what I'm trying to do in Rollback as well. The propaganda with which we are flooded regarding how indispensable the political class is – why, they are selflessly devoted to "public service"! – is unworthy of a fifth-grader. We would not die instantly in the absence of the Joe Bidens and Mitch McConnells. We would flourish. And here's the proof. Regards, Thomas E. Woods P.S. You can purchase Rollback: Repealing Big Government Before the Coming Fiscal Collapse here, or receive a free chapter here. Who's Afraid of a Free Society? originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning has published articles on the impact of quantitative easing, bakken oil, and hyperinflation.
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| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts Posted: 15 Feb 2011 09:03 AM PST |
| Fed's gold bullish script… Posted: 15 Feb 2011 08:55 AM PST by Jeff Berwick Talking to the average man on the street is an exercise in futility. Before gold hit $1,000/oz in US dollar terms no one owned gold. Since it has hit $1,000 a few people have become aware of its existence but of those the vast majority will tell you that, " it's too late now to buy gold. We missed the run." Anyone who has been around for any of the numerous bubbles that have been spawned by the massive amount of monetary inflation over the last few decades knows that this is not what a bubble top looks like. It's not even what a bubble looks like. … Yet, gold almost always gets pegged by mainstream media as being "in a bubble" despite showing none of the outward signs of being in a bubble. Not to mention the fact that the mainstream media completely missed the fact that tech stocks and the housing market were in a bubble – but somehow managed to spot this one! In a recent poll by Bloomberg of 1,000 of its subscribers they asked where they saw gold prices going one year from now. 35% said higher, 39% lower and 24% said little changed. They also asked if they thought gold was in a bubble. 52% said yes and 43% said no with the rest saying they didn't know. These are simply not the types of numbers you would ever see in a bubble or near the peak of a bubble! Bubbles only tend to pop once greater than 90% of the general public think it is a sure thing to go higher and to always go higher. … hold your gold & silver. This train hasn't even left the station. [source]
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| SKI Report #83: The New Gold Stock Phase Continues Posted: 15 Feb 2011 08:42 AM PST Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D. Email: [EMAIL="jeff@skigoldstocks.com"]jeff@skigoldstocks.com[/EMAIL] USERX | historicals Written Feb 13, 2011 Published Feb 14, 2011 Current USERX price = 17.85, Up 50 cents (3%) since the report 3 weeks ago. [FONT=Verdana]Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana] I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at the most informative gold site, 321gold, since its inception approximately seven years ago. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 34 years.[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana] The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermedia...
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| Time for Precious Metals Miners? Posted: 15 Feb 2011 08:37 AM PST Hard Assets Investor submits: By Lara Crigger This morning, the market crackled with news that billionaire investor George Soros had bumped up his holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010. Color me unimpressed. Don't get me wrong: When you hold — as Soros does — 4,721,808 shares of GLD, any slight percentage change in your holdings translates into potentially huge moves for the vehicle. And since GLD, with more than $52 billion in assets under management, dominates the gold ETP scene, what happens in GLD tends to greatly influence the rest of the gold market. But this is a non-story. Amid European economic uncertainty and a tightening Chinese economy, Soros decides to hold onto his gold — well, it doesn't take an investing genius to make that call. What I find far more interesting is his growing love affair with North American miners. As Bloomberg reported Complete Story »
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| A Big Money Playah Hammered PHYS Into the Close Posted: 15 Feb 2011 08:29 AM PST |
| Lessons From Egypt For The American People Posted: 15 Feb 2011 08:17 AM PST "Cairo, US Blindsided by Revolt" was The Wall Street Journal's headline on its analysis of what led up to the Egyptian crisis. "We were caught by surprise." Israeli Finance Minister Yval Steinitz told the same newspaper in a separate interview. As I reflected on the demonstrations in Egypt and followed the news of the events that followed, it occurred to me there were two vital lessons for the American people that have been overlooked. The first is that the entire notion the United States can pursue an independent monetary policy is a dangerous and erroneous conceit. The surge in food prices that has contributed directly to the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and other countries throughout the Middle East can be traced directly to the Fed's parochial effort to stimulate the domestic economy with an inflationary monetary policy. Food prices as reflected on the CRB food index are up 36% in the past year – including an 8% advance in the month of January. The UN's FAO Food Price Index rose 3.4% in January alone, and now stands at its highest in real and nominal terms since 1990. Rising food prices are not given much weight in the calculation of the US consumer price index, but they've created havoc in the lives of millions of people throughout the world. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's position that it is up to each country to protect itself from the Fed's inflationary ignores this simple fact: The dollar is at the center of the international monetary system. Many currencies, including the Egyptian pound, are linked to the dollar. As a result, when the Fed's easy money policies drive the value of the dollar down and the dollar price of commodities up, it contributes directly to monetary and political instability throughout the world. The costs of an inflationary monetary policy aimed at stimulating employment are far greater than any temporary benefit to the American people. The resulting rise in commodity prices is stoking resentment against the US and providing an opening for radical Islamists – who promise food and shelter for all – to seize power. The Fed's decision to ignore the international implications of its actions is tantamount to willful negligence. It puts America's vital interests at risk, reduces our soft power, and produces economic and political instability within our sphere of influence. The second lesson is those who serve in our government are no more able to anticipate the future in their immediate area of responsibility than are the rest of us. Two of the best intelligence agencies in the world with access to Egyptian officials, the US State Department with a long and important presence in Egypt, to say nothing of the Egyptian government itself were all unable to anticipate the crisis now unfolding in this extraordinarily important nation of 80 million people in the heart of the Middle East. That what is happening in Egypt was a surprise does not mean those who failed to forecast the uprising are incompetent. Instead, it shows the hubris of those who claim competent and well-informed government officials and public servants have the power to anticipate the future. Yet, this premise underlies most calls for increased government regulations, from health care to financial services. For example, new federal regulations of financial services put even more power in the hands of a few public servants rather than dispersing power among market participants. This centralization of power implicitly assumes that those who work for government are less fallible than those who work in the private sector, and therefore can be trusted to foresee and avoid the next financial crisis. But, as the Egyptian crisis demonstrates, this is an illusion. Government officials are not more capable than anyone else in anticipating or controlling the future. As former British Prime Minister Tony Blair writes in his memoir, A Journey: My Political Life, the financial crisis was not caused by a lack of regulatory oversight. "We didn't spot it…it wasn't that we were powerless to prevent it even if we had seen it coming; it wasn't a failure of regulation in the sense that we lacked the power to intervene. Had regulators said to the leaders that a huge crisis was about to break, we wouldn't have said: There's nothing we can do about it until we get more regulation through. We would have acted. But they didn't say that." As a result, the government's promise that it can prevent future crises actually has the opposite effect. This promise, backed up by thousands of pages of regulations, undermines the natural risk aversion and skepticism of market participants by creating the illusion of a risk-free future. This is what happened when government sanctioned rating agencies tranquilized investors throughout the world into believing that various "tranches" of mortgage backed securities were AAA credits when in reality they carried far higher risks. The result was a financial crisis that threatened the entire banking system. Markets may be no better than public servants in this regard. But, with markets, risks are dispersed. When those who make bad decisions are not bailed out but bear the consequences of their actions, markets quickly self correct and impose just sanctions on the imprudent and greedy. That is why the bursting of the tech bubble did not cause a financial, economic or political crisis. Imagining that public officials are endowed with special powers to see the future and protect us from the vicissitudes of life is a license for tyranny, no matter how well intentioned or ostensibly benevolent its foundation. In this moment, Benjamin Franklin's warning rings true: "They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." We ignore both of these lessons from Egypt at our peril. Regards, Charles Kadlec Lessons From Egypt For The American People originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning has published articles on the impact of quantitative easing, bakken oil, and hyperinflation.
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| This past week in gold - Feb 15, 2011 Posted: 15 Feb 2011 08:10 AM PST Jack Chan JACK CHAN's Simply Profits. Precision sector timing for gold, energy, and technology. Posted Feb 14, 2011 GLD – on buy signal. *** SLV – on buy signal. *** GDX – on buy signal. *** XGD.TO – on buy signal. Summary Long term – on major buy signal. Short term – on buy signals. We increased our exposure from current buy signals, and will add more upon new set ups. ### Disclosure We do not offer predictions or forecasts for the markets. What you see here is our simple trading model which provides us the signals and set ups to be either long, short, or in cash at any given time. Entry points and stops are provided in real time to subscribers, therefore, this update may not reflect our current positions in the markets. Trade at your own discretion. We also pr...
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| Silver is Approaching Stage Two of its Bull Market Posted: 15 Feb 2011 07:41 AM PST "Physical Demand For Gold And Silver Continues To Confound Bubble Believers. Silver to reach $50 by 2011, and gold at $8,000 by 2015 conservative - Turk...and much more. " Yesterday in Gold and Silver The gold price didn't do much in Far East and early London trading on Monday...but shortly before the Comex opened, gold caught a bid. The high [$1,368.00 spot] came sometime between 10:00 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. Eastern time yesterday...as it was very broad top. But from that high, gold slid about six bucks going into the New York close...and was only up about $5 from its Friday close. Volume was light. Silver had a far better time of it than gold yesterday. The silver price was held at or below $29.92 for the first six hours of trading in the Far East yesterday...and was only set free around 1:00 p.m. Hong Kong time. Silver gained about 20 cents from that point, until shortly before the New York open. Then, just like gold, the silver price took off to t...
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| Daring Us to Buy those Dips Again Posted: 15 Feb 2011 07:22 AM PST
Daring Us to Buy those Dips Again
As Doug Short points out in his EEM chart (click to enlarge) from our Chart School, while Egypt may be "fixed," emerging markets are not. We had a pretty ridiculous discussion in Member Chat last week on whether we should take our quick 300% profits on our EDZ hedges or wait for the full 500% and we decided to wait because, like Doug and Captain Kirk - we do not believe the trend is the friend of Emerging Markets at the moment. Sure any one of them could be toppled tomorrow by a popular uprising like Egypt, Tunisia or Algeria or they could be swamped by runaway inflation like China (4.9% AFTER adjusting food inflation to a much lower weighting) or, well, EVERYBODY but the US, where we have no inflation because The Bernank said we don't. UK inflation rose to 4% in January and BOE Governor King now expects the trend to rise to 5% in the coming months. That's not very good for a Central Bank with a target rate of 2%. This MIGHT be a temporary situation because German Q4 GDP was actually 20% lower than expected, at 1.6% vs. 2% hoped for. Europe is still a major mess and the EU finance ministers just agreed to double the "Permanent Rescue Fund" from $332Bn to $675Bn.
That news helped knock the dollar back to 78.4, boosting the pre-market futures this morning as the US has no such fund for its member states, who are twisting in the wind at the moment and, of course, no one has a fund to rescue the US, which spent $675Bn while I was writing this post! Of course part of the $675Bn we spent is right in that IMF slice of the pie as the US funds about 20% of that 250Bn Euros ($330Bn so there's a quick $66Bn we pledged to bail out Europe this morning!).
8:30 Update: As expected, January Retail sales were 50% less than expected at +0.3% vs. +0.6% forecast by the people's who's job it is to get these things right. That's OK though, because Import Prices were 100% MORE than expected by our expert analysts (the same ones The Bernank likes to cite when he tells us inflation is "not on the horizon"), coming in at 1.5% higher than December vs. 0.8% expected and, interestingly enough, ex-energy this time we have almost a triple - at 1.1% vs. "just" a 0.4% monthly increase in the December survey. Sorry but I'm laughing while I'm writing this because now I'm looking at the February Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which shows 15.43 vs. 15 expected. Wow! That's cool! Things must be picking up, right? Was it the employment component that gave us a lift? No, sorry, employment was 3.61, down from 8.42 in December. Then it must have been New Orders, right? No, sorry again, new orders fell to 11.8 from 12,39. Well, no prize now as, obviously it must have been PRICING and yes, prices jumped 6.8% in the last 30 days from 15.79 in January to 16.87 this month. So rising prices overrode the declining employment and orders to give us a 3.3% gain. Isn't this BRILLIANT - almost 50% of our inflation drops down to the bottom line. I'll bet if we can get inflation up over 100% then we can pop the markets a good 50% - what do you say? Who's with me? Yes, Ben - you can put your hand down, I was already counting on you.... Speaking of things we count on. Last June, the Fed's NY Branch (who do the Empire Survey) asked the question (page 8 on the report): "Please indicate your best estimate of your total capital expenditures for last year (calendar year 2009) and the expected amount for this year (calendar year 2010)" and the answer was $3.38Bn in 2009 and $4.3Bn planned for 2010. This is a major metric on which the Fed then determines their outlook. Well, they are asking that question again this year and guess what was actually spent in 2010? $2.87Bn. That would be 32% LESS actual spending than planned. We often talk about survey bias at PSW and this is a great example of how asking business owners how they think business will be is not the best way to base your long-range economic forecast models. Even so, for 2011, NY Manufacturers now PLAN to spend just $3.5Bn, that's down 20% from last year's PLAN but UP 20% from last year's actual so guess what the title of the Fed's report is? How about "Firms Plan to Spend More On Equipment"? I brought up 1984 yesterday so I'm not going to belabor the point but RTFM, my friends! It's in the public domain, I got it on my IPad for free and it's not even a long book but it is, unfortunately, the best description of what is going on in our World these days... I have said we would hold our bearish stance into this week's data (and option expiration) as we thought this might be too much to bear. It's not about the data itself - anyone who is not an "expert analyst" could have told you prices are flying and sales are falling. The question is whether or not the new and very aggressive round of POMO for the next 30 days can roll over the bad data and keep taking the markets higher (see Stock World Weekly for details). The jig may indeed be up for The Bernank as Net Foreign Purchases of Long-Term Securities dropped 37% in December from $64.6Bn in November to $41.8Bn meaning Bernanke's $120Bn of POMO purchases constituted 75% of all security purchases. Once we get to 100% and that's still not enough, then what? Like all other bad news in the market - IT JUST DOESN'T MATTER! Take FDX, for example: Yesterday, FDX dropped guidance by 25%, from $1.04 to .75 "due to the severe winter storm season and higher than expected fuel costs (that are not inflationary)." Bad news, right? Not according to UBS's, who are playing the role of Tripp (see video) and telling the campers: "We think this profit warning is at least partly priced in already, with the stock underperforming recently" and maintaining their CONVICTION BUY rating on the stock, which is up 200% from the bottom at $33 in 2009 and trading at just under the all-time high. This makes, according to UBS: "A very compelling entry point...especially ahead of what we expect to be bullish guidance around fiscal 2012." So ignore the company's ACTUAL guidance - we EXPECT that NEXT YEAR, they will be in a better mood. I could talk about the weakness in oil or the upcoming housing numbers or the 10 am business inventories but - why bother? It's all about whether or not the Fed and their pet IBanks can goose the S&P over that magic 1,332 line today. As to the bad news, as Tripp tells us - IT JUST DOESN'T MATTER!!!
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| The Golden Tripod & The Crisis Posted: 15 Feb 2011 07:22 AM PST Stewart Thomson email: [EMAIL="stewart@gracelandupdates.com"]stewart@gracelandupdates.com[/EMAIL] email: [EMAIL="stewart@gracelandjuniors.com"]stewart@gracelandjuniors.com[/EMAIL] Feb 15, 2011 1. This morning, the battle of the head and shoulders patterns makes its move from the bullion arena to the gold juniors arena for you. As I write these words around 4am, the bull side of the equation is showing some teeth. Click here now for a view of the bull side of things. GDXJ H&S Pattern Chart Battle. 2. Just as no technician (or fundamentalist) knew gold junior stocks would suddenly form a big top pattern in October, none knew the juniors would suddenly form a powerful bottom formation now. 3. Yet, here it is! The head and shoulders bottom for gold juniors now! Those who sold all their gold into the lows, or worse, shorted it, might be a little nervous this morning. 4. So they should be. This is the market, and the greatest wie...
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| LGMR: Gold & Silver Jump as Middle East Unrest Spreads to Iran Posted: 15 Feb 2011 07:15 AM PST London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault Tues 15 Feb., 09:00 EST Gold & Silver Jump as Global Inflation Rises, Middle East Unrest Spreads to Iran THE PRICE OF GOLD jumped Tuesday morning in London, hitting $1375 per ounce and setting four-week highs for Dollar, Euro and Sterling investors, as world stock markets again held flat and commodity prices rose. The silver price rose another 1% to $30.88 per ounce – its best level of 2010 so far. Major-economy government bonds meantime slipped in price, nudging interest rates higher, after the world's second and fifth largest economies – China and the UK – both reported rising consumer-price inflation. "Gold's setback at the start of 2011 is on balance likely to be short-lived," says February's edition of Metals Monthly from the VM Group in London, written and published for ABN AMRO Bank. "In the US, record-low interest rates will remain as long as the Fed struggles to significantly reduce unemployme...
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| Comex gold rallies past $1,370/oz on inflation worries; fear of Middle East contagion Posted: 15 Feb 2011 07:11 AM PST by Tom Jennemann … "In addition to the inflation concerns, there was some good Asian buying overnight and the euro is not declining any further against the dollar. Also, the tensions in the Middle East are playing some role in supporting gold," Jim Steel, senior vice president and metals analyst with HSBC, said. … "While the Chinese have shown a willingness to take aggressive actions to curb inflation, the central banks in the Western world are resisting interest rate hikes. They would rather risk a little inflation than kill the recovery," a US-based fund manager said. "Yesterday, we encountered some resistance at $1,370 but now that we have broken through that level we should be able to gradually move up towards the next target of $1,394," he added. In other news, protests for political reform continue in Iran, Yemen and Bahrain in the aftermath of the Egyptian uprising, heightening fears of contagion across the Arab world and heightening gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. [source]
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| Posted: 15 Feb 2011 07:02 AM PST by Addison Wiggin - February 15, 2011
 Police are firing tear gas on protesters in Iran. Pro-government thugs are fighting protesters in Yemen. Protesters have taken control of the main square in the capital in Bahrain.The headlines are coming so quickly… it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that in Egypt, Mubarak is gone, but the faceless generals who surrounded him for decades remain. “So far, the so-called Egyptian Revolution has only been a game of musical chairs,” writes veteran foreign correspondent Eric Margolis. “If Egyptians feel cheated by the change of power in Cairo, as many will, and violent demonstrations begin, what will happen if the junta orders a battalion commanded by a colonel to open fire on protesters?”  “Imagine a country with a historic legacy of overpopulation, mass poverty and widespread bad education,” writes Outstanding Investments editor Byron King. “Imagine a country with a precarious economy, even on the best of days. Imagine a land characterized by chronic shortages of food, fuel, water.“Imagine decades of living in a police state where the religious guys are in a running feud with the state authorities. Imagine a ‘three strikes’ kind of system filled with radicalized political prisoners who've been slapped around a good many times. “Welcome to Egypt. And now it's all falling apart.” Byron pointed out last week how the trouble coincides with the end of Egypt’s days as a net oil exporter. “Its former major source of national income is now gone. Let's just hope that there are no, umm... ‘accidents’ in the Suez Canal, eh? In that case, there goes another 15% of Egyptian GDP.” On Jan. 29, as events gathered pace in Egypt, Byron told readers to sell two oil companies with Egyptian exposure -- securing gains of 50% and 143%. Looking ahead, “In a world where political turmoil threatens the future of Middle East oil supply, we're invested in oil companies that operate internationally, and mostly far from riots and religious extremism. “Hey, if it all works out in the Middle East and there's a big group hug and everyone decides to love each other and do business together, we still own a bunch of oil companies that will be able to compete. “And if things get worse in the Middle East? If things go south in the Middle East -- and if so, it will surely affect oil output -- we own companies in that will do somewhere between well, very well and spectacularly well. Take your pick.” It’s a line of thinking that just earned Outstanding Investments a remarkable honor.  Hulbert Financial Digest just named Outstanding Investments the best-performing newsletter advisory of the last 10 years.“HFD,” as it’s known in the trade, meticulously tracks the performance of 146 newsletters – using its own independent, objective criteria. After crunching the numbers, HFD concluded Outstanding Investments’ 10-year performance crushes the competition. It’s delivered an annualized return of 21.7% -- far outstripping the nearest competitor at 14.7%. With everything going on in the Middle East… and everything that could do to oil prices… there’s no better time than now to give this presentation a look. Or if you want to go straight to the Outstanding Investments order page, you can do so here.  Stocks are down a bit after yesterday brought another flat day on low volume. Traders are chewing on the news that Chinese inflation clocked in at an annualized 4.9% in January… and on U.S. retail sales that wildly missed expectations. Retail sales rose 0.3% in January, according to the Commerce Department. That’s the seventh straight monthly increase, but it’s also the smallest since last summer.Worse, the bulk of that increase came at gas stations and grocery stores. Um, yeah… prices are going up, so it stands to reason people are spending more there. The Street was counting on an increase of double what we got.  Here’s something that makes the retail numbers look even more paltry: Effective Jan. 1, most wage earners got an increase in their take-home pay. That’s because their Social Security withholding was cut from 6% to 4% under the tax bill that passed in December.So the tax break isn’t stimulating spending… but it is putting Social Security even deeper in the hole. One more reason to give serious consideration to what Jim Nelson calls the “other” government-backed pension program.  Gold has firmed to a four-week high of $1,373… thanks in part to that China inflation news, and word that British consumer prices rose at an annualized 4% last month. Silver is knocking at the door of $31 again. Last we checked, the spot price was up a quarter, to $30.87.“In precious metal bull markets, silver outperforms,” explains GoldMoney’s James Turk. “Its price climbs at a faster rate than gold’s price. “The reverse happens in bear markets. Silver’s price drops at a faster rate than gold’s price. The following chart of the gold/silver ratio illustrates this phenomenon:  “Last week, the ratio touched 45.0 and ended Friday at 45.3” -- that is, it took 45.3 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold. “It was the lowest daily and weekly close for the ratio since February 1998.”  James believes silver is about to enter stage two of a three-stage bull market. Stage one is where an asset class moves from apathy and neglect toward growing attention. Stage two is marked by “widespread disbelief and skepticism” that the price can climb higher.“Silver won’t advance into stage two until [its 1980 high of] $50 is exceeded, just like gold did not enter stage two until its previous high of $850 was hurdled. Because it is still in stage one, silver remains good value.” Byron King has a number of ways to play silver for maximum gains in Outstanding Investments. Did we mention it was just named by Hulbert Financial Digest as the best-performing letter of the last 10 years? Give it a look here.  Grain prices remain near their recent highs. Wheat is still just shy of $9 a bushel, and corn remains above $7.“For the grains, and the headliner of corn in particular… the bullish trends have been well established and data, news or events can only make the situation more dire as we prepare for the crucial spring planning in America,” Resource Trader Alert’s Alan Knuckman recently told MarketWatch. “The reality is that we are a long way away from refilling the bins and correcting a near-record-tight stocks-to-usage ratio,” he continued. “We can probably only find less corn or increased demand, not the opposite for now.” We can expect corn prices -- and grains in general -- to keep rising, probably through the spring. It’s almost as good a time for commodities traders as spring 2008.  After our item yesterday about China surpassing Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy, our business partner in China sent along a collection of recent political cartoons, all with more or less the same message:  “That chart of China over taking Japan as the second-biggest economy in the world,” a reader adds, “only seems to clarify that China is in a bubble. Nothing climbs that high this fast.”The 5: The question of “Is China in a bubble?” generates only slightly less controversy than “Are we headed for deflation or inflation?” We’ll return China this May for a firsthand assessment.  “I’ve been reading The 5 for a couple of years now and probably wouldn’t have noticed this if I had not been receiving your indirect education over those years. If I.O.U.S.A. is running a $1.65 trillion deficit, which your numbers say is 11.3% of GDP, then GDP is $14.6 trillion.“I recall the official (fictitious) GDP growth given by our laughable government was in the ballpark of positive 3% annual growth last quarter. Since 11.3% of that was borrowed (and shouldn’t be counted), doesn’t that mean the actual GDP came in at negative 8.3%? “How can you borrow 11.3% and only get a 3% bump in the growth? Something doesn’t add up, but then again I am using the (comical) official government numbers.” The 5: How, indeed. As we pointed out in Financial Reckoning Day, this has been Japan’s conundrum for two decades now -- endless stimulus and bailouts producing ever-diminishing returns.  “Why no comment, that I have seen, pointing out that the Spanish didn't own [the Black Swan] treasure, but stole it?“If Odyssey Marine can't have it, it should go back to the descendants of the people it was stolen from. I vote for Odyssey, because they spent their own money to recover it and have proved archeologically responsible.”  “I wonder why Odyssey Marine's case doesn't get some protection from the international laws of marine salvage. I've always heard salvage laws allow a salvager to take ownership of whatever they recover as long as the original owner is not actively recovering it.“It's not like the original owner's haven't had time to salvage it themselves; even the ones who want to claim ownership now aren't trying to salvage those old wrecks, and they've had 50, even hundreds of years, in some cases to get started. Oh, that's right, the ones claiming ownership are governments, and our government, just like all others, have different a set of rules for themselves.”  “I have been a reader for many years. Maybe you’re aware of this, but it hit me this weekend playing Monopoly with my kids.“I had to read the instructions, as my kids are 12, 10 and 8. I needed a refresher myself. When I got to the part of what the banks does, I had to laugh: “‘Besides the Bank's money, the Bank holds the Title Deeds, and the houses and hotels prior to purchase by the players. The Bank pays salaries and bonuses. It sells and auctions properties and hands out the proper Title Deed cards when purchased by a player, it also sells houses and hotels to the players and loans money when required on mortgages. “‘The Bank collects all taxes, fines, loans and interest, and the price of all properties which it sells and auctions. The Bank "never goes broke." If the Bank runs out of money, the Banker may issue as much as needed by writing on any ordinary paper.’ “The last two sentences are what really hit me. I laughed out loud, and my kids were wondering why that was funny. I tried to explain it to them, but they looked at me like I was crazy. I told them that is what the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury are doing. Out of the mouths of kids, they said they must have learned it from playing the game as kids. “Now I am wondering how long this game can continue, because the game of Monopoly can go on for a long, long time!! “Thanks for your daily wit!” The 5: Back in the inflationary ’70s, it was pretty common for investment writers to speak of the Fed and Treasury pumping out “Monopoly money.” What’s more striking nowadays is how, as you point out, the Bank “collects all taxes, fines, loans and interest.” When you think about the revolving door between the banks and the government, it’s enough to make you laugh. Or cry. Cheers, Addison Wiggin The 5 Min. Forecast P.S.: We just arrived in Nicaragua for our latest “Chill Weekend” and will reach Rancho Santana shortly. Look for our observations on what’s happening here later this week.
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| Gold, Long Bonds, The Only Trend That Matters Posted: 15 Feb 2011 06:38 AM PST Porter Stansberry with Braden Copeland write: We call it "the only trend that matters." It is the most important financial idea we could ever give to you. The fate of millions of Americans rests in a single market, where just one financial instrument trades, and...
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| Guest Post: Economy Flight 666 - Our One-Way Ticket To Zimbabwe Posted: 15 Feb 2011 06:36 AM PST
Submitted by Davos Sherman Okst Economy Flight 666 - Our One-Way Ticket To Zimbabwe [Part 2 of Part 2, Part 1 can be found here] In the fine book “I.O.U.S.A.” former Comptroller General David Walker said, ”[The] fourth and most serious of all is a leadership deficit.” The material I reviewed underscores Walker’s observation. I’m a huge Paul Ryan fan. I’m impressed with his handle on our budget. I give him a tremendous amount of credit for addressing our dismal fiscal situation head on. I commend him for making it the center of his work. This is something most politicians refuse to even mention, let alone address in public. Congressman Ryan is working to solve it. As much as I like, admire and respect Representative Ryan - I have to say: He epitomizes Walker’s illustration of our biggest deficit. He does not have the economic vision to see the picture and he is therefore stunted from forming a dynamic and cohesive plan that will solve our problems. This is entirely evident from the compilation of video clips. The one thing 15,000 hours of flying taught me is this—when there is an emergency, or even an anomaly, the procedure for saving one’s assets boils down to 5 simple steps:
Bernanke is by definition a weak link. Obama should have fired him. He and Greenspan created the housing bubble. They deserve no rewards for ordering a 10.4 trillion dollar carpet to sweep their mess under in order to hide and prolong the disaster. Paul Ryan should have used this opportunity to publicly condemn the man and demand the idiot's resignation. You can see by the videos that the committee is bumbling around in the dark feeling its way around. The only question that should be asked is: “Bernanke, do you want to resign now or when you leave this meeting?” So what we should be hearing from Congressman Ryan is this:
5. Execute the Plan: Paging President Teleprompter. During one of these FOMC meetings Bernanke asked about a chart showing the value of our dollar losing 10 percent per year. Ask yourself: Just how that plays into the Fed’s dual mandate of maintaining price stability by preserving the value of “our” currency? Just where can you put the savings from your flat, circa 1970s wages, to work and get 10% per year? No small wonder why gold was up 29% last year and silver was up 89%. The long bond (30 year) is tanking, the 3 decade old bond bull market is finished! This is evident because the yield busted the 10 year moving average when it blew above 4.75%. Money moves out of bonds when central banks print. Money flows into hard assets, gold, silver and commodities when central banks go berserk. The central banks will have to come in and buy more bonds in order to drive bond prices up, inversely lowering yields/interest rates. Bernanke’s QEII won’t hold rates down, there is not enough Fed bond buying. It’ll take QE III, QE IV, and QE V to dominate the bond auctions and drive rates below 4.75%. When that happens the dollar will have the value of toilet paper. So to answer the question: “How does monetizing the un-payable portion of our deficit play into preserving the value of the dollar?”—it flat out doesn’t. That is why our dollar has the purchasing power of 4 cents. The Fed was created 100 years ago, the dollar lost 80% since Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971. The dollar will literally be worthless when Captain Bernanke completes his flight. The engines (read: the printing presses) are melting the wings off the plane. Bernanke is kidding himself, the House Budget Committee and the entire 60 Minutes audience when he says that he can raise interest rates in 15 minutes. He can raise rates but it would be the INSTANT end of the economy. I’ve read the book: “Temple of Secrets: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country”, and a large portion of the book was dedicated to Paul Volcker’s 21.5% rate hike. The adverse effects on the economy were disastrous. Businesses stopped borrowing, or went broke borrowing, unemployment went through the roof, housing was crushed, large purchases of automobiles crumbled. When someone’s voice crackles it indicates a total lack of confidence in what they are saying. They are not being truthful. Bernanke says:
But the single biggest reason the Fed can’t raise rates is debt service. It is right in Bernanke’s testimony. Just the cost to service our debt would go up to 6 trillion if rates went up. RATES CAN NOT BE RAISED - ONLY A REVALUATION OF THE CURRENCY AND MIGRATING BACK TO A GOLD STANDARD CAN PREVENT INFLATION. Paul Ryan did the math. Why he or anyone else listens to Bernanke say he can raise rates in 15 minutes is absolute absurdity.
In Summary: This will, without a doubt be another Katrina. All I witnessed was 2 hours of empty words and a tremendous amount of chicanery on the Fed’s part. We can’t get to a stable monetary system stuck on this flight to hell. I am deeply saddened that Paul Ryan won’t be a good leader until after he learns from this colossal failure.
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| Posted: 15 Feb 2011 06:33 AM PST A mixed bag in the metals sector today, which bears close watching for the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Silver Wheaton (SLW), the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX). The SLV is pushing up towards a challenge of its Jan high at $30.44, although for the first time since the pivot low on Jan 25, the SLV is not leading the charge today. Instead, SLW is out front. The change in profile is bothersome to me, as the SLV needs to retake the leadership role.
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| Posted: 15 Feb 2011 06:29 AM PST US equity markets have continued to make higher weekly closing highs, climbing relentlessly in defiance of calls for a pullback or a resumption of the bear market. Treasuries broke down from a month long consolidation and resumed their downtrend as capital continued to exit the perceived safety of fixed income for risk assets. Gold appears to have completed a correction of its recent decline and may be set to join Treasuries in a downtrend as investors exit safe haven plays.
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| Posted: 15 Feb 2011 05:58 AM PST Good news on Rhodium this past month was that no news continues as the norm. With wild and nonsensical fantasies of how Egypt throwing off a despot would bring immediate wealth to those owning Silver and junior mining stocks. Read More...
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| James Turk interviews Hugo Salinas Price on silver and sound money Posted: 15 Feb 2011 05:58 AM PST 12:55p CT Tuesday, February 15, 2011 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: GoldMoney founder James Turk interviews Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, about silver's potential to return as money and about sound money generally in a 22-minute video you can find at the GoldMoney Internet site here: http://www.goldmoney.com/video/salinas-price-turk CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture: Company Press Release, January 18, 2011 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy. PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding. Following the transaction: -- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC. -- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis. -- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp. -- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings. Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000. For the complete announcement, please visit: http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php Join GATA here: Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property Company Press Release, October 27, 2010 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include: -- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres. -- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres. -- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre. Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest." For the company's full press release, please visit: http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf
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| Asian buyers aim to drain SLV's metal, King World News says Posted: 15 Feb 2011 05:52 AM PST 12:31p ET Tuesday, February 15, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver): King World News today reports Asian interest in liquidating shares of the silver exchange-traded fund SLV to obtain dwindling supplies of real metal. You can read the report here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/2/15_Lo... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture: Company Press Release, January 18, 2011 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy. PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding. Following the transaction: -- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC. -- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis. -- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp. -- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings. Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000. For the complete announcement, please visit: http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php Join GATA here: Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property Company Press Release, October 27, 2010 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include: -- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres. -- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres. -- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre. Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest." For the company's full press release, please visit: http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf
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| Seven Steps the US Can Take to Reclaim the Nuclear Power Initiative Posted: 15 Feb 2011 05:44 AM PST Once there was a time when America bestrode the nuclear world as a colossus. Names such as Einstein, Oppenheimer, and Manhattan Project helped to win World War II and contributed to many peacetime applications as well. Over the ensuing decades, the United States allowed other nations to take the lead in the development of nuclear power. Recently I wrote an article depicting the French Leader Sarkozy celebrating the multi-billion-dollar agreement with India to build a new generation of safe nuclear reactors for the next 25 years. We have become a nation asleep at the switch while the world is developing cheap, non-carbon electricity. Many countries, especially Asian nations, are building reactors with many proposed to come online in the future. France is the world leader, building facilities in England, Finland, China, Italy, and India among others. Even countries rich with oil such as Saudi Arabia and Iran have goals of building nuclear power generation. Doesn't that show the winds of change are blowing? Jeff Immelt, Ceo of General Electric (GE), has gone on record decrying the snail's pace at which nuclear plant construction is proceeding in the United States. He noted that we are building only one plant during a time of mass unemployment and mounting national debt. Additional new nuclear plants are springing up elsewhere. South Korea gets a significant amount of electricity from nuclear and Korea Electric Power (KEP) has been competing with giants for nuclear plant construction. Taiwan is beefing up its power grid by going nuclear as well. The Russians have signed nuclear agreements with Iran, China, Venezuela, and Nigeria. Yet the US dragged its feet. It is apparent that America has no time to lose in the nuclear race. Actually this crisis presents a singular opportunity for alert readers to make large profits in a rapidly growing sector catalyzed by volatile world developments. Under our very noses we are witnessing the possible loss of our oil supplies via such threats as the closure of the naval choke hold, Suez and Hormuz. There was little coverage over the weekend of the explosion in Northern Sinai of the Egyptian-Israel-Lebanon-Jordan natural gas pipeline by terrorists and it's believed a renewed interest will arise in light of recent events in the Middle East. Now investors are celebrating Mubarak's departure, however a leaderless nation with a power vacuum may be the perfect environment for a geopolitical explosion. I propose the following seven-step program to rebuild our nuclear legacy and, at the same, provide profitable opportunities for readers. 1. Overhaul the Federal Nuclear Loan Guarantee Program so that domestic mining companies such as UR-Energy (URG) and Uranerz (URZ), construction companies such asShaw Group (SHAW) and ABB (ABB), and component suppliers are given reasonable and competitive repayment loans. 2. Take advantage of public sentiment, which is rising in favor of the expansion of nuclear energy to power our growing need for electricity. This outreach will help to relieve our dependence on foreign fossil fuels. Nuclear can provide an inexpensive source of energy for many years for the benefit of our homes, businesses, and the environment. 3. Build new plants, which will create many high-paying, skilled-labor jobs in mining, plant construction, engineering, and ancillary industries which make components that go into these facilities. 4. Institute a national reawakening, which would make us competitors internationally and help to reduce our growing trade deficits. 5. Streamline federal laws that will act to eliminate red tape and bureaucratic boondoggling that are now hindering the growth of these vital industries. For example, Duke Energy(DUK) proposed the purchase of Progress Energy (PGN), a deal that would create the nation's largest utility. Duke has stated that it would like to build new nuclear plants, adding to the 12 units at seven sites in the Carolinas and Florida. It is actively seeking regulatory approval to build six new Westinghouse reactors. Such approval should be accelerated. 6. Develop new methods of nuclear waste disposal in the US. The French have been pioneers in this area; for years they have been successfully recycling nuclear waste for usable energy through Areva Corportion. It is time to disarm the critics of nuclear energy by changing the negative mindset resulting from Chernobyl and Three Mile Island. 7. Refute critics of these new programs who say they are too costly. I maintain they would pay for themselves in new jobs for plant construction, engineering, and mine development. A final note should be mentioned concerning the private dinner held by President Obama of the US and President Hu of China. A number of important partnerships were concluded at this meeting by companies such as Duke Energy, China Power Investment Corporation, Alcoa (AA) and Shenhua Group. It is interesting to note that Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld said that the Hu-Obama Summit helped push the joint initiative forward. He said if it were not for this private dinner, "The agreement would not have happened in a speedy fashion." The importance of such arrangements in which nuclear energy plays a vital role must not be overlooked. The platforms are in place. All that's needed is for American legislators and administrators to efficiently provide the stimulus to move the development of nuclear energy forward in order to reclaim our legacy. Uranium prices are over $70 a pound as China, Russia, and India look for clean and cheap energy solutions. I wrote an article back in December entitled Reveille for the American Nuclear Industry. Since that time, a lot of investors, utilities, and legislators have woken up. President Obama signed an executive order to speed up and streamline mine development in order to spur job growth. Energy independence and clean alternative energy is gaining popularity in Washington as evidenced by Obama's recent State of the Union Address. Uranium stocks have soared since my early October buy signal to readers. It is important to monitor the few juniors who are aggressively looking to grow their uranium pounds in the ground by possible acquisitions or exploration — what better time than now for these companies to this? Look for additional acquisitions and consolidations in 2011. Cameco (CCJ), Denison (DNN), and Paladin (PDN) are all looking to expand their operations and resources. Would you like to receive a daily newsletter highlighting key opportunities in precious metals, uranium, rare earths and lithium? If so, click here.
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| Divisions threaten French hope for G20 policy deal Posted: 15 Feb 2011 05:43 AM PST By Daniel Flynn
The two-day talks in Paris will launch debate on French President Nicolas Sarkozy's ambitious agenda for his country's year-long presidency of the G20. The agenda includes grand proposals to curb the volatility of food and fuel prices and to reduce gradually the world's reliance on the U.S. dollar. … France is pinning its hopes for this week's meeting on one main issue: agreeing on indicators to measure dangerous imbalances in the world economy. … "China exports and saves, Europe consumes and the United States prints money and consumes. Is that a balanced model?" asked French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde on Monday. "Our hope is to reach agreement on indicators as soon as Saturday. If we do not, it's not a drama," she said, noting that the French G20 presidency runs until November. … Officials meanwhile acknowledge there is little interest in several of France's more ambitious ideas, such as using SDRs as a reserve asset to diversify away from the dollar, empowering the IMF to act more flexibly as a global lender of last resort… [source] RS View: Although not spoken in this article, well-versed readers would be wise to recall that still on the table are World Bank president Robert Zoellick's remarks about engaging gold such that it (i.e., it's floating price) could provide the much-needed reference point "to assess the relations between different currencies … of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values". In a world of disparate political and economic views, this neutral asset engenders the nearest thing to unity and thus need merely bide time as the stage is cleared by default of the other cluttering rubbish, leaving gold as the sought-for if not actually fought-for solution. The much bespoken SDR could only ever be credibly advanced in the limited role of a straw man to occupy the minds of a handful of otherwise meddling economists — a politically useful talking point but ultimately a tactical diversion/distraction. In the article, Christine Lagarde is additionally quoted, "If we want to reduce accumulation of foreign reserves, we have to create a climate of confidence which allows developing countries not to hoard them." The proper interpretation of this comment is that as the international monetary system reforms, as it shifts away from the hoarding of U.S. dollars (and bonds), there is no desire to see these holdings (and the associated problems of resultant exchange rate appreciation) simply rotated into (and onto) another foreign currency such as the euro. To be sure, a suitable "climate of confidence" would be increasingly engendered and reinforced (virtue of network externalities) by continued appreciation of gold and its employment as the principle agent among central banks' reserves as is currently done in exemplary mark-to-market fashion by the Euro System of Central Banks (and a growing host of others). I would guess that Lagarde is hoping the United States would hasten the inevitable by saying "me too" sooner rather than later. Regardless, M-T-M gold reserves represents the best management practice of central banks from the hard-won wisdom collectively derived (better-late-than-never) from the full and often shameful historical tapestry of human experience in monetary and banking affairs. The path ahead is considerable more golden and conducive to economic progress than it has ever been before. R.
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This is a great, great scam because we spend dollars we don't have, devaluing the Dollar, to prop up the EU and that strengthens the Euro - devaluing the Dollar again! It's a double hit on the Dollar in one morning and we haven't even seen the rotten Housing Numbers yet! We have seen the rotten Retail Numbers as ICSC Retail Store Sales showed a 1.4% drop last week but, of course, weather will be blamed and we will ignore them again. See, we're getting right into the spirit of things now! We get the Jan Retail Sales Report at 8:30 and, hopefully, that will give us some better insights into what is going on with the economy.
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