saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Silver Market Update
- Is Gold's Golden Era Over?
- Food Inflation Puts Soybeans on Center Stage for Put Sellers
- Trading Comments, 30 January 2011 (posted 16h15 CET):
- Saudi Stock Market Offers Glimmer of Positive Hope for World Markets Monday
- Bullion Confiscation: Paranoia, or Justified Fear?
- Pleasantly Surprised by the Q4 GDP Miss
- Mauldin on Possible Economic Collapse
- Gold Decline Than Continues Trend
- Friday’s Panic in the S&P 500 & Gold Futures
- i nominate this guy for moron of the week
- rob kirby: metals pullback explained...and over
- BCA Research on Gold Bull Market
- Russia Moving to Gold Standard?
- REGRESSION TO THE MEAN
- Richard Daughty on the Fiscal and Monetary Insanity of the Whole Freakin' World
- Gold Update
- Friday’s Panic in the S&P & Gold Futures
- Gold, Oil and the Contrarian Mindset
- Silver futures trading has nothing to do with metals real price, Sprott says
- A Tangled Mess – Why Oil Mixes with Gold
- When Gold Bullion Fails
- ‘Miners Challenge’ Entering the Home-Stretch
- Great Gold, Silver & Green Opportunities Arise
| Posted: 30 Jan 2011 05:15 AM PST Last weekend`s Silver Market update turned out to be pretty much correct as while silver did drop to new lows for this correction it ended the week with a strong blast of upside energy that is believed to mark a reversal to the upside. |
| Posted: 30 Jan 2011 04:36 AM PST David Hunkar submits: Gold prices surged 1.8% to close at $1,340.70 an ounce Friday as investors sought the safety of the yellow metal. Despite the slight fall in gold prices so far this year, gold has had an incredible run in recent years. An article in The Wall Street Journal takes a bearish view on gold suggesting that gold’s golden era may be over. Complete Story » |
| Food Inflation Puts Soybeans on Center Stage for Put Sellers Posted: 30 Jan 2011 04:24 AM PST James Cordier submits: Food inflation has taken center stage in recent weeks, as prices of everything from corn to coffee have been on a bull market tear as of late. As we have discussed at length in our weekly and Monthly Newsletters for several months now, the global economic set up continues to favor a "running of the bulls." [James Cordier discusses Selling Options to take advantage of Food Inflation, CNBC's Power Lunch, January 24, 2011.] US economic recovery, continued Chinese and BRIC nation expansion, and a still sluggish US dollar have led to a voracious rebound in demand for foodstuffs. Nowhere has this demand surge been more evident than in the soybean market. As developing economies see their citizens becoming more affluent (relatively), the first thing populations tend to improve are their diets. For many, this means increased meat consumption. As much meat is produced domestically in these nations, it builds a growing demand for not only grains for human consumption, but for animal feed. And a primary ingredient for animal feed is soybean meal. Growing populations with a rising standard of living in BRIC nations has spurred a surge in demand for crops such as soybeans. As the world's second largest producer of soybeans (behind Brazil), the US has seen an ever larger percentage of its total production being exported to meet this demand. US Ending stocks and stocks to usage ratios have remained near historical lows for three straight years as producers struggle to meet ever growing global demand. As 2011 begins, US stocks remain near historical lows. Yet US supply will have to meet the lion's share of global demand until the first South American soybeans become available in late March. At the same time, over the next 60 days or so, soybeans will be competing for acreage with corn, wheat, oats and cotton for planted acreage in 2011. Ironically, in the Spring, the commodities that end up with the least acreage see reduced supply estimates for the fall. This often results in higher prices for these commodities. Many traders now believe that soybean prices are 'undervalued" as compared to corn, and that some price "catch up" is in order to secure enough soybean plantings this spring to avoid shortages in the fall. If you are a corn or soybean farmer in 2011, it's all good. We feel the low US stocks and relentless world demand story will continue to support prices for soybeans in the first half of 2011. Harvest pressure from Brazil could curtail prices somewhat in Q2, but "planting season" in the US at the same time tends to create enough anxiety to create a counterweight, if history is any measure (past performance is not indicative of future results.) It is our opinion that the odds of a price washout (steep correction) in soybeans is minimal given the anxiety over supplies, and that a put selling strategy appears to be a preferable approach to the market at this time. Volatility is good and investors should look to sell deep out of the money puts and not be afraid to go out to July, August or even September contracts. Even a moderate price increase should make these options close to worthless before the crop is finished being planted this May. We will be working closely with our managed clients this month in collecting soybean premiums for their accounts. Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. Additional disclosure: clients are positioned in soybeans options or may be in the near future. Complete Story » |
| Trading Comments, 30 January 2011 (posted 16h15 CET): Posted: 30 Jan 2011 01:15 AM PST The bears gave it their best shot last week. They drove the precious metals lower during option expiration, but the strong recovery on Friday by both gold and silver shows that the low prices |
| Saudi Stock Market Offers Glimmer of Positive Hope for World Markets Monday Posted: 29 Jan 2011 11:55 PM PST  Richard Shaw (QVM Group) submits: The turmoil in Egypt last week sent gold, oil and dollars up, and world stock markets mostly down. Over the weekend, the Saudi stock market (Tawdawul) was down more than 6% on Saturday, but today (Sunday) in Saudi Arabia, their market was up over 2%. That is not a guarantee that other markets will rise, or that the Saudi market may not reverse and decline more tomorrow, but the Saudi market being open on Saturday and Sunday is more of a real-time reaction to what is happening in Egypt, and how it may impact other authoritarian Middle East regimes -- and the price of oil. Given that, the modest recovery in Saudi Arabia is encouraging from a market perspective. Complete Story » |
| Bullion Confiscation: Paranoia, or Justified Fear? Posted: 29 Jan 2011 11:42 PM PST I've always thought silver confiscation was more probable than gold confiscation. This article covers the points that concern me. Bullion Confiscation: Paranoia, or Justified Fear? A question which I am regularly asked by readers (especially U.S. readers) is whether I believe that government(s) would once again confiscate the gold held by individuals. The question is a reasonable one, given the U.S.'s prior history of "gold confiscation" during a time of deep economic strife. "Executive Order 6102", issued by the Roosevelt administration on April 5, 1933 commanded U.S. citizens to turn over all of their bullion holdings, with a few limited exceptions. The official exchange rate for all gold confiscated was $20.67 US, which was the official, fixed price for gold at that time. There are many observations to be made about this event, and once examined it should be more obvious to people to what extent that threat exists today. To begin with, we must look to the purpose behind that Executive Order. Here, what we see is that there was more than economic strife which motivated this action. By that time, Hitler had already risen in Germany, and the severely flawed Treaty of Versailles (which resulted from the Armistice of World War I) was increasingly seen as a driver of new hostilities in Europe, rather than the basis for a lasting peace. With the prospects for major, European war once again rising, it was imperative to the U.S. government that it have sufficient financial reserves to engage in its own military build-up. Here, we must remember that the global monetary system was firmly tied to a gold standard at that time. Thus the only way in which the U.S. government could rapidly increase its money supply to finance its military without shattering the gold standard (as Nixon did in 1970) was to find a way to significantly (and quickly) increase its gold reserves. Confiscating the gold of its own citizens was clearly the easiest way to accomplish this. A very nice article on this period by Bullion Vault points out another interesting aspect to this episode. Immediately after confiscation, the U.S. government "revalued" gold against the dollar (i.e. it devalued the dollar) to $35/ounce – netting the U.S. government an immediate 50% profit on the gold it had taken from its citizens. But that was literally only half the plan. Despite the fact that the U.S. had changed its own gold exchange rate versus the dollar, the U.S.'s European allies did not change their own exchange rate between gold and the dollar – producing one of the largest arbitrage events in market history. Traders could buy gold in Europe at $20.67/ounce and then immediately sell that gold to the U.S. government at $35/ounce. This did more than merely make a lot of European gold traders very rich. It directly and obviously resulted in a vast amount of total, global bullion stockpiles flowing into the U.S. – as the arbitrage opportunity functioned like a "vacuum cleaner" for the global gold supply. While we can question the course of action for our warmonger governments during this tragic era of Western history, there can be no doubt that the action of the Roosevelt government in confiscating the gold of its citizens was based upon bona fide economic, military, and political considerations. It is equally obvious that no such motivations exist today. Certainly the U.S. is experiencing severe economic problems, indeed its economy is hopelessly insolvent – with the key word here being "hopeless". Some readers have feared that gold confiscation would be seen by the U.S. government as a means to "stop the bleeding" of the U.S. economy. Such fears are misguided. With the U.S. federal government having $14 trillion in current debt, plus another $70 trillion in "unfunded liabilities" (which now must be funded), the $100's of billions it could net by making another clean-sweep of its domestic gold holdings are totally irrelevant in economic terms. Thus, if the U.S. government were still to engage in gold confiscation, it would be nothing less than a blatant act of theft by the U.S. government. Even here, however, motivation is entirely lacking. For those worried about the U.S. government engaging in blatant stealing from its citizens (apart from the money-printing Ponzi-schemes of its bankers), the assets they should be worrying about are the $trillions in paper assets, conveniently located in accounts (operated by bankers) which could be confiscated in a instant merely by pointing-and-clicking. Indeed, there have been a rash of stories (all within recent weeks) of governments all over the world confiscating (paper) pension assets. In contrast, gold confiscation is a ridiculously cumbersome exercise, where the costs to administer the scheme almost outweigh any benefits by themselves. As a final footnote on this issue, Wikipedia debunked a popular internet myth concerning U.S. gold confiscation in the 1930's: that safety deposit boxes were "seized and searched for gold" as part of that Executive Order. In fact, Wikipedia observed that such a directive never existed, and that private safety deposit boxes were never subjected to any searches based upon this administrative action. The only way in which someone could have their gold seized from their safety deposit box was if the government had a lawful reason to search the box – connected with a separate/different criminal violation. This reinforces what I have said repeatedly to bullion-holders regarding the issue of "storage". A safety deposit box is in the "custody" of the bank, but (legally) the contents of those boxes always remain in our own "custody". This is wholly different from either allocated or unallocated bullion accounts where the bullion itself is always legally in the "custody" of the bank administering the account. Thus, if "gold confiscation" were to take place in the U.S. (or anywhere else), any/every ounce contained in these accounts would immediately be seized, while those with bullion in safety deposit boxes would not necessarily be affected. For reasons listed above, however, I now view the issue of "gold confiscation" as a moot point. What surprises me, and what I intend to address in the balance of this commentary is that the issue of silver confiscation does not seem to have even been raised by any other commentator, let alone examined in a serious manner. In many of my own commentaries, I have gone into detail on the numerous (and ever-increasing) uses of silver in myriad industrial applications. Not only are many of these products of great importance to both consumer and commercial markets, but because of silver's superb (and unique) chemical/metallurgical properties, in many of these applications there are either only inferior "substitutes" available, or no substitutes at all. Compounding the importance of silver in our modern economy is the fact that (as has frequently been reported) both global inventories and stockpiles of silver are nearly totally exhausted. Thus, we have in the silver market something which is entirely absent in the gold market: a legitimate motive for confiscating silver. Undoubtedly, silver-holders would be furious should the U.S. government (or any other) seek to engage in silver confiscation (almost certainly at only a fraction of silver's real "fair market value"). There may even be riots in the streets. But unrest would be short-lived, because with a plausible (and even somewhat reasonable) pretext for confiscation, public opposition would quickly wane. In this respect, we must look at the now-famous internet "campaign" by Max Keiser and friends/allies to "take down JP Morgan" as a two-edged sword. I would (will) undoubtedly be one of those cheering the loudest on the day that this odious Oligarch is forced into bankruptcy. However, a blatant and direct "threat" to bring down arguably the single most-important financial institution in the entire U.S. economy may be viewed by the U.S. government as both "an economic threat" and as a "threat to national security". We need only look to Afghanistan and Iraq for examples of the extremes to which the U.S. government will go under the pretext of "national security". Compared to its global military rampage, confiscating any/all of the silver it could lay it hands on would be nothing more than a minor "footnote" to current events. In this respect, Bullion Bulls Canada has not joined the growing internet clamor to "take down JP Morgan". We will certainly monitor this important grassroots movement, but our own policy is not to engage in active promotion of this campaign. To those parties who are actively crusading on this issue, I would hope that they would take the time to seriously evaluate the consequences of their actions. "Taking down" one of the most notorious banking oligarchies in the history of humanity may (is?) a noble goal. However, as individuals laughingly parrot the phrase "let's take down JP Morgan", it's important that people realize that this is not some "internet browser game" but real life, with real consequences. Despite being an ardent silver-bull myself, I always caution readers to maintain "balance" in their bullion holdings. Indeed, I have devoted a previous commentary to a conservative (but simple) strategy for investors to use in allocating their dollars between gold and silver. The reason why I have warned investors not to go "all in" in silver is because it was always possible to envision scenarios where silver's seemingly much brighter future may not play-out as silver investors currently envision. Sadly, current circumstances have now created such a plausible scenario where it is silver confiscation, not "gold confiscation" which should be an issue pondered by all precious metals investors. http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/in...=42:rokstories |
| Pleasantly Surprised by the Q4 GDP Miss Posted: 29 Jan 2011 11:22 PM PST HiddenLevers submits: GDP grew at 3.2% annual rate, we learned Friday, falling short of the expected 3.5%. Strong consumer spending in the last three months of 2010 was based on the most successful holiday spending season in five years. Consumer spending is growing at the fastest rate since 2007, the US is doing well in trade due to a weaker dollar, and the stock market is inflating. There are some headwinds to be sure – gas prices, unemployment not fading, and the east coast snow dampening current retail ales. The biggest ding in the GDP was the only thing holding it up some time back – government spending. State and local agencies have cut back big time, as the storm in municipal bonds looms. So that was probably the .3% that economists were expecting. If you do think GDP will continue its march upward, you can find stocks highly correlated to GDP growth. One such stock is Spar Group (SGRP), which is an in-store merchandising company, and is benefitting from the kick up in retail sales. Complete Story » |
| Mauldin on Possible Economic Collapse Posted: 29 Jan 2011 11:07 PM PST Our political system is not geared to cutting spending. Politicians want to play Santa Claus and have for about 100 years. The veterans know no other game than increasing spending as a means to buy votes to get re-elected. That calculus is shattered. We are out of money. Now these politicians must play Grinch, a [...] |
| Gold Decline Than Continues Trend Posted: 29 Jan 2011 10:26 PM PST Gold Posts A Normal Correction. Forecast Base $1,325-$1,348.50. Gold Futures Declined to Two-Month Low As A Strengthening Dollar Cuts Demand.
"Gold in New York fell to a two- month low as a strengthening dollar cut demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. The dollar rose against a basket of six major currencies on optimism for the U.S. economy. Gold is headed for the first monthly loss since July after a 10-year advance. Hedge funds last week cut their bullish bets on a gold rally, and assets of the metal held by exchange-traded products yesterday fell the most since October. Gold gained +30% in 2010, touching a record $1,432.50 an ounce on December 7." "Precious metals also fell on speculation that China will raise interest rates to fight rising prices. Growth in China, Asia's biggest economy, quickened to 9.8% in the final three months of 2010 from 9.6% in the July-September period, the government reported. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. cut its 2011 price estimates for gold and platinum. It expects gold to average $1,453 an ounce this year, down -3.3% from an earlier forecast, and platinum to average $1,886 an ounce, 3.2% lower, analysts Mark Pervan and Natalie Robertson wrote in a report today." "Platinum for April delivery fell $26.60 an ounce, or -1.4%, to $1,811.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price gained +21% last year, underperforming gold, silver and palladium. Palladium futures for March delivery fell $15.75, or -1.9%, to $804 an ounce. Silver futures for March delivery fell $1.036, or -3.6%, to $27.765 an ounce on the Comex. Before today, the metal dropped -6.9% this month after rallying +84% in 2010." -Pham-Duy Nguyen Bloomberg.net         This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Friday’s Panic in the S&P 500 & Gold Futures Posted: 29 Jan 2011 05:30 PM PST Mr. Market has thrown traders a few curve balls lately as precious metals and crude oil have been selling off while the U.S. Dollar Index futures were consolidating. Additionally, the volatility index has been very choppy and was indicating that we could be seeing a potential change in the underlying trend with regards to future price action. In previous articles that I have proffered, I was warning about a likely correction in gold and equities as prices were extremely overbought and both asset classes were due for pullbacks. Precious metals have been selling off for much of the month of January while equities worked their way higher as technology stocks continued to outperform. Today we are seeing major selling in equities while gold, oil futures, and Dollar Index futures rally. What is Mr. Market trying to tell us? Why are the U.S. Dollar Index futures rallying with gold and oil simultaneously? However, the most important question that most traders want an answer to is whether this is a top in equities or if we are just going to have a mild correction and power higher? Risk is excruciatingly high and Friday's price action appears to be extremely emotional. I am watching to see if we get the Friday afternoon grind higher in equities that generally is accompanied by light volume. If equity prices are held down today, we may see lower prices in the not-so-distant future. The daily chart of the S&P 500 E-Mini futures contract listed below illustrates the key price levels that traders are likely watching closely:  I remain neutral at this point on stocks as I want to see how the market digests today's prices before taking a serious position. With short term prices at the current oversold levels, I am expecting a light volume drift higher before Mr. Market tells us which direction he may be headed in the longer term time frame. For right now, I will continue to remain in cash and will wait patiently for low risk, high probability setups to emerge. Gold Gold futures suffered from a relatively serious pullback in the month of January. At the close on Thursday, gold was trading around $1,315 per troy ounce. As of the writing of this article gold was trading over 15 points higher on Friday and panic buying was taking place. Gold was extremely oversold on the short to intermediate time frame so a relief rally was expected. However, gold rallying 15 points in the face of an increase in the Dollar Futures on Friday is rather perplexing. The U.S. Dollar Index futures are illustrated below:  There have been times when both gold and the dollar have rallied together in the past, however at this point it is too early to determine what the market is trying to tell us. On one hand, it is obvious that gold needed to bounce to work off oversold conditions. On the other hand, it is rather odd that gold and the U.S. Dollar Index futures are rallying together. My best guess is that traders are trying to game where future money flows are going to be placed if selling persists in the future. It is hard to say for sure if gold will roll over or if this rally is trying to tell us something else.
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| i nominate this guy for moron of the week Posted: 29 Jan 2011 05:06 PM PST you can't eat it :wub: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25914.html Not that some market (that no one trusts) somewhere might say its XXXX million per gram in some currency like the bugs want, but to the large majority it will mean absolutely nothing. In fact to a large majority it already means nothing and if you gave a coin to them they would cash it and buy stuff they NEED. (with the MONEY they receive for it) When the majority has no use or value for an item it is just that... of no value or use. I and others who even fractionally disagree with even one thing gold bugs say have to say these things because in the history of investing I'm not sure if any group has been so 'testy' (shall we say) as metal bugs. (maybe dotcommers, maybe realtors a bit ago, bond guys in the 80's) all of which had/have tunnelvision.... hint hint Put it to test for yourself even. Go to a mall even go to 4 malls because they are high traffic areas maybe a Starbucks is better! Like most towns there will be the rich end, poor end etc, so you could get a good all around idea demographically etc, ask the first 100 or so people if they have even 1 gold coin. I will bet at least 98 or more will say N O Go ask 100 people if they need to eat to live 100 will say yes. (except gold bugs of course) Now if you get someone who says yes say to them "if you had 50 maple leafs, in the event of a collapse would you want to share for the common good?".... more on that below. Now it is commonly known ( a few %) that %90 of the wealth is owned by %10 of the people. Some would even say 1 / 99 people to wealth. OK so we have this understood. However even here to support themselves the bugs will throw this out the window like all else. So if we have roughly (Again people's/sites numbers vary) $15 trillion of available gold and silver in a $50 trillion economy PER YEAR how is it gold and silver will be a currency? Are we to magically destroy the economy by %60-70 in one year and then after and after? A world economy destroyed by that much among the commoners gold will be useless. All those who don't consider themselves a commoner or that they will have no contact with such at any time, or that they will be in a separate economy on another planet, this does not concern you. So then out of let's say even $20 trillion in above ground and still usable metals like silver and gold (this is to say that the numbers being mentioned reflect ALL KNOWN MINED of the 2 metals and I will still let it be that none has been used in any industry or jewelry to help the bugs even more mathematically) and %90 is owned by a small minority, that leaves 2 trillion for the rest of the world to 'get along with' doesn't it? So 6 300 000 000 people get to share 2 trillion DOLLARS of gold and silver? (%10 of 7 billion= 700 million. 7 billion - 700 million= 6 300 000 000) Let's say we all get $1000 for the rest of our lives to live, if the case ask "what would I buy? Besides oxygen what do i need?" Bugs please explain to the people how this works. How an economy of $50 trillion, turns into a $2 trillion (for life) economy, without anything happening. You say much will happen? So do I which doesn't help your "theories" either. So that looks like to me like not a whole lot of cash. So this to me rules out the "but gold was used as cash before" argument... was that when there were 70 000 000 people or 7 000 000 000 people? Unlike for the Fed, in this case zeros are important. Also to keep in mind hundreds if not thousands of items have been used to exchange goods like food, timber, cotton, plant extracts, medicines, narcotics etc. NOT JUST GOLD AND ONLY GOLD FOR ETERNITY. So instead of that what might people turn to that they know and trust and will keep them alive? (in this scenario the bugs call for) F O O D/ Calories/ Units of labour CLOTHING AND SHELTER or that which will provide/procure such. Could it be in such a scenario people would actually have to leave their living room or basement and do stuff instead of letting some poor soul do it in some far off land for %98 less cash then they would do it for? But who wants to do that when you can just sit around and watch a ticker go up and down while others do everything? I know a particular group of people who do this, they are called BANKERS. (small time traders count yourself out as you actually have to work not rig markets to make cash) Or when in this 'collapse' the people who produce let's say grain are just magically going to hand over to you twice as much grain from one month to the next because some market says silver or gold doubled? So all you had to do (fantasy/banker time again) was hold an object while the rest of the people put in work, and you think after all that they will just hand over their goods for your payment because YOU or some market BELIEVE they should? Does that make any sense at all? Speaking of getting paid, guess where the word SALARY comes from? People used to accept salt as payment in Roman times (crazy it wasn't only gold/silver huh) Why did they bring Gold Frankinscence and Myrrh (gold was worth less than both items at the time. All of South America had zero use for gold as currency and used it for decoration etc. What was the difference between them and the conquistadors? Belief that it was worth something. Can we see it has been and is even remotely possible now for something besides gold and only gold to work? How is it magically all the nations who's political parties can't even agree on the smallest issue and with at least 40 global conflicts going on (looks like to be more because of the gold.... or was it FOOD riots), are magically all going to go to never never land and agree on some type of gold backed currency and declare world peace at the same time? We even saw a small group of nations try this and failed. Why? who has more gold? Who has more silver? Who has more silver mines? Who has ZERO silver or gold or mines for either? We have cotton why not include that? We have timber? We have oil? We have no oil? We grow Heroine? we grow Cocaine? (both of which are worth way more than gold/ounce.... so we can see what is really valuable and where and why we would fight for it.... and it is renewable as well.... but that is another article.) This could AND WOULD go on forever! (until of course the warships get called out) which is another time where people don't care about spot prices (lets maybe recall WWII to try and refresh our memories when all the pigeons across Europe virtually disappeared so people could EAT something besides gold cereal. Now getting back to the 10/90 (not the hairstyle) line of thinking. Does anyone in their right mind truly believe these guys whoever you believe they are and what they believe will just magically equally distribute their gold to start things off evenly after all these 100's of years of piling it up? AND expect nothing? AND also want anything less than ABSOLUTE CONTROL? $%^# NO they wouldn't ! So even in the event that a global pixie dust phenomenon happened these 'players' would still be in ABSOLUTE CONTROL of this magic currency. WHICH IS THE PROBLEM, NOT FIAT, NOT PAPER, NOT SWAPS. IT IS NOT A 'WHAT' BUT 'WHO' PROBLEM. In which case, should anyone with a brain come to believe much would change? They would still control the expansion and contraction of the FTC (fairy tale currency) In the times leading up to the FTC what would anyone do? People who tout gold as the greatest thing since sliced bread live in so many camps it's unreal. Sliced bread is precisely what causes problems. "Everything will hyper deflate (how many dow 0000 calls have we seen by gold bugs) but somehow gold will skyrocket when trillions of dollars disappear? No one will have to pay margins? Nothing? Ok let's say this does happen. Does that mean nothing else goes up in price? like THINGS PEOPLE NEED TO SURVIVE. Sometime I wonder if gold bugs have found a way to eat their gold and silver and metal ! Let me know how that works, love to try it! "There will be hyperinflation" does this mean there will be a bullion dealer on every corner to cash in my gold for what %99.99 of retailers except as cash? (USD) Which is not gold by the way. BUT PAPER LIKE IT OR NOT.... PAPER. So no matter what you will get rich hyperinflation, hyper deflation, hyperflationflation.... sounds a little bit to good to be true.... AND IS. (just like real estate and the aforementioned "NEVER LOSE" situations) Thousands of people in your county have lost their pensions, jobs, houses and ways and means to live. (which also means these people, LIKE %95 or more...) cannot be glued to their trading screens checking spot price of gold. In hyperdeflation or hyperinflation this is what would happen but of course not for gold bugs magically everything would change AND STAY THE SAME in some sort of 5th dimensional time warp. I say county and not country because in this scenario, everything becomes small and primal so your general vicinity is what matters (the local farmer not the plantation in Chile) not COMEX pricing... sorry bugs. So do you think anyone besides you in your area (gold bugs) is going to give a rats A$$ about the price of gold when they and their kids are starving? If you haven't eaten in 7 days and you have a gold bar and someone, somehow has a fresh and hot slice of pizza and you know it might be the only food you see for a few days your bar becomes.... drum roll please... worth a slice of pizza! Or if you havent eaten in 7 days and you have a firearm (In the states about 80 million... way more by a long shot than gold) and gold is the king of the world... what will you do? who will you look for? This has happened many times... but lets not mention things that don't support our positions. Unless of course you live right beside the (already plundered) bullion dealer and he is also right beside a farm who will except gold or cash and NOT FOOD or anything of REAL VALUE in this scenario because he is a nice guy. Also not how it works. Except of course in GOLD BUG FANTASY LAND. Also consider the ratio of Grocery/Food Distributors to bullion dealers take your wildest guess. Do you think there is a reason for that? FOOD is closer to money than gold will ever be. Also consider when it is that store will just magically say "Hey now we accept gold" "Why don't you take all of aisle 4 and we'll accept that coin you have that you say is worth $5000. By the way be sure the other coin in your pocket will protect you from the mob outside on your way out. Just so you know they will not be after your precious coin" Just so we can be clear if it is that 'all collapses,' (THE BUGS EMOTIONAL SELL POINT) that means farmers and truckers and ships (including fuel suppliers) can't or don't get paid which means they don't move which means those bananas and the like don't make it to Michigan or wherever you are. 1) because they cant get trucked there and 2) most food items require massive amounts of gas to produce. Sounds like a small problem doesn't it? Maybe even a problem slightly bigger than spot gold at the time wouldn't you say? Keep in mind if war is the bug of your likings' scenario of choice, who do you think will be first in line for fuel? Truckers or drones and tanks? The public or the military? Which means that trillions of calories are lost in the food chain (or am i way off here) beyond what is already happening in the environment/naturally etc. Which means supply drops off the board.... which means the demand for whats left skyrockets. Not rocket science folks (keep in mind the scope of the logic before you fire off numbers to me about gold demand and supply mindlessly which I have no doubt you will) Just think or look out how much of your food is local? (I know there will be some exemptions and some places who have a % of local food.... like where I live) Do tomatoes etc really grow year round or at all in your area among other things? If so in this 'collapse so buy gold or your a fool' scenario do you think that will be 2.49/lb or simply not there? We are very much dependent on a smooth running system. Consider this as well In the First Depression there were 150 000 000 people in USA and %46 were involved in some capacity in agriculture. Today there are 350 000 000 and around %1 are involved in agriculture How do those odds stack for a smooth transition into what we need to survive in "ation times" maybe we can all head to the mines? So given that gold is not edible (not saying gold isn't going up somewhere on some chart in some currency) but whether or not in such a scenario will it mean anything. Also given no one can buy gold if they are dead from starvation (maybe in the bugs 5th dimension) So then even if it is 'valuable', you will be trading it for food and then when you are done with your supply, what do you have? Maybe an empty safe and stomach? Wow really did a lot of good there didn't it? The simple farmer will have stock piled your gold, the gold of others, had a means to acquire more and be FULL, with land, a house etc. WHO IS THE FOOL NOW? WHO IS THE RICH ONE NOW? the simple "Stupid Farmer" who didn't buy gold at any time!!! As I have said in such a scenario you are better off with a patch of grass and a cow! As at least this person can produce something. Which is why the "buy and get rich on gold" scenario works... because that person could believe they wouldn't have to do anything except be rich in the event of a collapse which plays right into everyones do nothing fantasy... perfect isn't? We have fantasies, emotions and money all coming together... sounds like a recipe for disaster to me. We are on this site and sites like it because we have interest in these things. Ask yourself what is %99 of the rest of the people doing? Playing Call of Duty? Watching some dumb show where nobody ever seems to have their shirt on seemingly always itching their opposite bicep and are constantly drinking in and getting in and out of hot tubs? %99 of people have no idea whats going with anything let alone what gold 50 EMA or whatever is. What do you think the people who have spent the last 5 years watching 'dancing with the has beens' are going to do? Run around like monkeys (sorry maybe a compliment)... run around like chickens.... (maybe again)... run around like rats looking for food. (maybe even running around like rats looking for rats to eat) As I have also said gold is a bankers wet dream as a currency, if people don't have gold what can they do? Sell everything to pay their debts? in such a case prices for everything would plummet and what would people want? AGAIN IT IS FOOD TO AT LEAST LIVE TO BE ABLE TO CHECK THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD EVERY 5 MINUTES!!! So understand then that if gold is to somehow be a currency it will only be so the bankers can gain some MORE advantage than they already have. SO IT WILL NOT SOLVE ANYTHING AS ALL WOULD STILL BE CONTROLLED BY THEM BY VIRTUE OF THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAVE %90 OF THE STUFF. Even if they don't have %90 now they would have %90 before it was used for some type of backing. Since it is with %100 of these situations they are well ahead, even by years, of all trades. BE very sure that when bankers have the advantage (like they do now and still would in this scenario) the rest of us do not prosper so even in this event, you are no better off than the rest of us. You had better be close to %100 sure in your area this will become currency or you would be screwed in this scenario (please note i am not saying you cannot profit with gold) LIKE YOU CAN ON ANY TRADE IF YOU ARE SMART. WHICH MEANS BUY, THEN.... as crazy as it sounds SELL to realize profits. But you must think things out, because no analyst with a massive interest in gold (like MR. T. the financial expert ) is going to tell you info. They are going to play on your emotions and fantasies like they always do to get you to buy something. In this scenario only the very well prepared stand a chance and if you think because you have a pile of coins that is 'preparation' you are very sadly mistaken. Money is nothing but the belief by a majority that it is just that... money. I know for so many this is a tough concept to get but just look around you, what are the worlds currencies backed by? not gold! not silver! Not anything but belief. So again be damn sure that even %51 of people will believe it to be CURRENCY. This is where the whole go to the mall or Starbucks comes in so you yourself can see for yourself and do your own research to try and make an informed decision on where to put your money. I will also say money can be backed by one other thing.... large warships, guns, missiles and soldiers so if you don't want to believe, you can be made to or else.... Remind you of a planet in your galaxy? Maybe the bankers will use our blood to back a FTC... what a great world it would be then right? Sorry bugs by my math you are nowhere near a majority... which means you are in never never land (as in the word NEVER) Tunnel vision serves no one in life and especially in investing or preparing for the 'collapse' of the free (or serf) world. Again so egos don't get confused, this is not to say gold wont go up X % just to say in the collapse you call for it may not be worth as much as you think and definitely will not get you rich, make you look cool, feed your family and let you do nothing like you may be being lead to believe it will. Or you have convinced your self it will. Now go to your spot where your gold is and look at it again maybe for the first time, maybe say to yourself, sure I can make X DOLLARS on this unit if I buy AND SELL it AT THE RIGHT TIME, but it will not do the above. Sure gold has gone up X %... When did you buy? I know that %99 of the time the best time to buy is when there are the least amount of buyers so I think we can safely discount that most Missed most of the Boat on this trade as usual. (trade means buy and sell) Or let your belief stand in the way and say "This will feed, cloth and shelter me and also protect me in times of need" But maybe if you do that you will realize you have a Rifle in one hand and something of the metal variety in the other which will ACTUALLY perform all those functions and then some in such a scenario. That, some brains, 2 legs/arms, your family, a strong community, willing to work together and not say "he is the almighty king because he bought gold" will get you by if it unfolds the way you say it will (which I, by the way, believe it very well will) If it is you are in such a situation and sitting on a pile of gold and silver or whatever and you could honestly sit there and watch others starve then go and be with the banksters you profess to hate, because that seems to be what you want to be and will have become. The more people like you that around the less better off this planet is. THAT IS ONE THING I DO KNOW AND HOPE WE CAN ALL AGREE ON. THAT IS WHAT TRULY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MESS WE CALL HUMANITY AND ENDING THAT IS THE ONLY THING THAT WILL SOLVE IT.....not gold. As always accepting hate mail because I disagree with you filled with incoherent arguments and data points, and rebuttals to things I didn't even say. (Be sure I am not talking about your last emotionally charged argument with your significant other) Which usually is a sign of emotion getting in the way, which means %99 of the ability to think rationally is gone out the window, which means whatever or whoever you have given your money to has got you right where it wants to. %1 odds on a trade is not what you want just so you know. If you want a smooth running system you will need something that is in plenty of supply, people can trust, can use and believe in. For now like it or not that is USD etc. If those ALL GO TO ZERO, what do you think will be first on the list and was back in the times you claim gold was the only currency? FOOD What will qualify for that in case of 'survival?' Things that meet primal instinct. These are FOOD CLOTHES SHELTER, gold is nowhere on that list. Humans are a funny breed we think we have to invent all kinds of games, markets and gimmicks to make it work. When in reality everything is right before our eyes only we cant see it because it is so simple in our ever growing need for complexities.... complexity is vulnerable... we see a very complex world right now and of course one that is quite vulnerable. My email is right here, send me anything you ever find about "gold riots" happening anywhere at anytime. But for now, notice what is going on about the things that really matter, food and the rioting over that because of the inflation you have called for. Also notice there are more dynamics than "DOLLAR COLLAPSE" at play here since the dollar has not moved for a year... But wheat can go up %90? We can only wonder what will happen when that gets passed on. I think we are seeing that now and in the coming years as we speak. GOT FOOD? by the way, this is your solution and no it does not involve buying coins to solve the worlds problems: http://www.informationclearinghouse....ticle27340.htm |
| rob kirby: metals pullback explained...and over Posted: 29 Jan 2011 04:53 PM PST kirby says index rebalancing is the main thrust. paper-shorting tribe is using it as an opportunity to lighten up on their shorts. pm set to resume march upward - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25884.html |
| BCA Research on Gold Bull Market Posted: 29 Jan 2011 01:50 PM PST BCA calls Gold "a potential mania candidate." Back to gold bullion, BCA Research argues that it is hard to make the case that gold is currently "a crowded trade". Many institutional and retail investors agree with the gold bull case but have been slow to act, argues BCA Research, "even as their faith in conventional stocks and bonds has ebbed. Indeed, based on investor meetings and anecdotal evidence, we estimate that the average portfolio allocation to gold is around 1%. "This suggests that there is plenty of pent-up demand which could still flow into gold and related shares. True, the gold bull market will proceed in installments, not a straight line. It would not be a surprise to see gold suffer occasional selloffs of perhaps a few hundred dollars at a time during 2011. "We would broadly view these selloffs as opportunities to boost core holdings. The bottom line is that gold is a potential mania candidate and expect good returns in this metal in 2011″. I couldn't agree more with BCA, although the mania will be years into the future and not in 2011 or 2012. Professionals continue to be under-invested in Gold.
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| Russia Moving to Gold Standard? Posted: 29 Jan 2011 12:16 PM PST |
| Posted: 29 Jan 2011 10:53 AM PST All markets are subject to the forces of regression. Newton's basic laws of motion; Action and reaction. At current levels both the S&P and Nasdaq 100 are stretched further above the 200 day moving average that virtually any other time in the last 10 years.   Not surprisingly the further a market stretches in one direction the harder it snaps back in the other once the law of regression to the mean gets it's hooks into the market. The Fed is exacerbating this process with their constant meddling in the markets. The flood of liquidity unleashed by Greenspan and Bernanke from 2002 to 2007 in the vain attempt to abort the bear market was directly responsible for creating the conditions that led to the market crash of 08/09. The rally in April was pushed much higher than it would normally go by the forces unleashed during QE1. The end result; the correction when it finally came was much more severe than it would have been normally, even including a mini-crash in May. QE2 has now driven the market even further above the mean than in April. Unless the law of action and reaction has been repealed we should see an extreme regression to the mean event . Personally I believe the Fed has put into place the conditions that will bring about the end of this cyclical bull market and usher in the next leg down in the secular bear. During the next 3 months we should see the dollar begin to collapse down into the 3 year cycle low unleashing the currency crisis we've been expecting. This will drive a massive surge in inflationary pressure that will poison the fragile recovery and send the global economy back down into the next recession. A recession that should be even greater than the last Great Recession as it will begin with economic conditions much weaker than in 07. The last time the Fed did this it produced a brief period of prosperity lasting about 5 years (and a real estate and credit bubble). This time I expect the party to last two years tops, which means this cyclical bull should top by March. And the price we will pay when the house of cards comes crashing down again will be multiples more expensive than last time.        This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Richard Daughty on the Fiscal and Monetary Insanity of the Whole Freakin' World Posted: 29 Jan 2011 10:00 AM PST The editors of The Daily Bell are pleased to present another exclusive interview with Gorilla Investor Richard Daughty, the "Great Mogambo Metals and Money Guru." Richard Daughty, the Mogambo Metals and Money Guru, describes himself as "the angriest guy in economics." No doubt this is because a genuine belief in Austrian hard-money economics leads him to question the moves, rationale and even, |
| Posted: 29 Jan 2011 07:51 AM PST This past week in gold By Jack Chan at www.simplyprofits.org 1/29/2011  GLD – on sell signal.  SLV – on sell signal.  GDX – on sell signal.  XGD.TO – on sell signal. Summary Disclosure
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| Friday’s Panic in the S&P & Gold Futures Posted: 29 Jan 2011 07:03 AM PST
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| Gold, Oil and the Contrarian Mindset Posted: 29 Jan 2011 07:00 AM PST |
| Silver futures trading has nothing to do with metals real price, Sprott says Posted: 29 Jan 2011 06:22 AM PST |
| A Tangled Mess – Why Oil Mixes with Gold Posted: 29 Jan 2011 05:58 AM PST |
| Posted: 29 Jan 2011 05:49 AM PST Call it "diversification" if you must, but Gold Bullion tends to do badly when other assets go up... |
| ‘Miners Challenge’ Entering the Home-Stretch Posted: 29 Jan 2011 04:17 AM PST For those readers who have been following the SilverGoldBull Miners Challenge since it began in October, things are finally starting to get "interesting". As everyone knows, the latest round of banker bullion-bashing has caused a pull-back in the sector – with signs toward the end of the week that we have finally found a bottom following this latest "ambush". At the same time, with the end of January near (and a short month ahead), we are now 2/3 of the way through our contest. Not unexpectedly, the pull-back in the miners has caused the standings to tighten. While Clint009's pick (South American Silver) is still in the lead (+ 187.50%), his margin has shrunk – while some of the other "contenders" flip-flop their positions. Marcocruces' pick (Great Panther Silver) has slipped to 3rd position (+ 116.67%), while BringTheGold's entry (Arian Silver) has surged into 2nd place (+ 143.33%). In case there are newer readers who don't know what all the "fuss" is about, here is a review of the contest. Members were asked to choose the gold or silver miner whom they expected to perform the best (in percentage terms) over the contest period (Oct/10 – Mar/11). But they certainly aren't doing this just for the "glory". Our generous contest sponsor, SilverGoldBull.com has made things interesting by donating gold bullion prizes to be awarded to our winners, as follows: 1st prize: (1) 1-oz gold coin 2nd prize: (1) ½-oz gold coin 3rd prize: (1) ¼-oz gold coin Halfway leader: (1) ¼-oz gold coin Alert readers will note that over our contest period the silver miners have been giving the gold miners a good "spanking", with all three of our leaders coming from the silver sector. This has much less to do with "underperformance" by the gold miners, and much more to do with the fact that not only has silver outperformed gold over recent months, but prior to that, valuations for the silver miners were certainly stingier than for the gold miners. As the silver miners "catch up" to the gold miners in terms of their relative value, this sets the stage for a much more interesting cycle in the market in the months ahead – as gold and silver prices appear set to rebound, while the relative parity between the miners makes it a toss-up as to which half of the precious metals sector will put in the strongest performance over the next few months. For those readers/members who missed out on our first Miners Challenge, rest assured that we plan on repeating our contest this fall – so don't miss out on your next opportunity to "bring home the gold" by picking the best-performing miner. Those in the contest should check our forum for the latest (full) contest standings – which have been updated regularly courtesy of another one of our members. With 2/3 of the contest now completed, we would like to thank all of those members who participated, and thank SilverGoldBull.com (once again) for their continued sponsorship of our member contests (and a "thank you" to SilverCaper for your regular updates of the standings). Full list of contestants, and their picks: |
| Great Gold, Silver & Green Opportunities Arise Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:59 PM PST |
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