Gold World News Flash |
- Why Does Gold Fall When The Dollar Rises?
- International Forecaster December 2010 (#4) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More
- Don't Be Fooled: Inflation Has The Upper Hand
- N.Y. Times: A secretive banking elite rules trading in derivatives
- Charlie Rose interviews Munk, Hathaway, and Grant on gold
- Absolute Flushing of the "Marks" by the Sharks
- Jim?s Mail Box
- Imitation is the Sincerest Form of Flattery
- MineWeb notes reports of banks failing to return metal
- The SilverGoldBull Miners Challenge
- Turk confirms stories of banks' balkiness returning precious metals
- Turk confirms stories of banks' balkiness returning precious metals
- A Christmas Story
- Weekly precious metals review at King World News
- Is Santa Claus Rally Almost Done?
- Absolute Flushing of the "Marks" by the Sharks
- Van Hoisington's Latest Observations On The "Growth Recession"
- UPDATE – - – UPDATE – - –
- CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton Reveals “One Trader” Controls 40% Of Silver Market, As Silver Holdings Of SLV Hit All Time Record
- UPDATE – - – UPDATE – - – - UPDATE – - – RE: SILVERKEISER SITE
- NOTICE – WE ARE GETTING FEEDBACK FROM USERS TRYING TO ORDER SILVER KEISER COINS THAT THE SITE IS NOT WORKING PROPERLY
- Deflationists Take Note: Bernanke Succeeds In Offsetting Shadow Banking Collapse
- Return Of The Christmas Grinch
- The Curious Case For $936 Ounce Silver
- Jim's Mail Box
- Don't Keep Silver with ANY Banks!
- The Year's Top Commentaries
- Stephen Taylor: Grassroots Investor
- Be Right and Sit Tight
- CFTC to Announce Silver Postion Limits Next Thursday
- CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton Reveals "One Trader" Controls 40% Of Silver Market, As Silver Holdings Of SLV Hit All Time Record
- CLSA's Complete 2011 China Outlook
- High Long Bond Yields Are Good News for Gold Holders
- European Monetary System Crisis, Euro Zone on the Edge of Collapse
- Stocks Risking Taking, Bonds Take a Beating and Gold Volatility
- Weekly Chartporn, And Why Goldman's Clients Are Not Too Happy With The Firm's Forecast
- Gold Forecaster - Why Does Gold Fall When the Dollar Rises?
- Odds and Ends
- Celente: American Empire is Collapsing
- Welcome to The SilverKeiser.Net “The Official Silver Keiser Pre-Order Sales are Here While Supplies Last!” – - – - – - i'm getting lots of negative feedback on the site —- with orders not processing – - —
- Fight financial terrorism, buy Silver
- Gold Mania Still Ahead, TSX-V Chart Speaks Volumes
- Grassroots Investor Betting on Vanadium
- Opposite Trend Paths Forecast For Crude Oil and Gold
- Gold Current Decline is a Correction, Opportunity to Add to Gold and Silver Investments
| Why Does Gold Fall When The Dollar Rises? Posted: 12 Dec 2010 01:00 PM PST We are all used to reading that gold rose because the dollar fell or that gold fell, because the dollar rose. The picture conjured up is one of traders racing in to actually buy or sell gold as they watch the exchange rate move. When U.S. Treasury yields rose this week, the dollar strengthened slightly and the gold price dropped. When we watched this happen it seem to happen immediately and precisely and we were led to believe that much more was happening than met the eye. After all if gold moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. dollar, this implies that it is moving not just with but almost riveted to the euro. What's the story behind this?
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| International Forecaster December 2010 (#4) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More Posted: 12 Dec 2010 03:30 AM PST Believe it or not the euro zone and European Union crisis is still in the formative stages. The bailout packages arranged for Greece and Ireland are not to bail out those two countries, but to bail out the European banks that lent to them and bought their bonds when it was imprudent to do so. They knew, because they control the governments that the public of the solvent governments would bail them out. Thus, the governments of Ireland and Greece with Portugal and Spain to follow will be showered with an Anglo-American style bailout. As you know $1 trillion won't be enough to make the banks happy, so $3 trillion will be needed.
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| Don't Be Fooled: Inflation Has The Upper Hand Posted: 12 Dec 2010 03:01 AM PST Here at Martenson Central, we are endlessly keeping a close eye out for the emergence of deflation, defined here as the purchasing power of the dollar going up. Technically, inflation and deflation are terms that indicate a particular combination of money surplus or deficit (respectively), demand for money (of which velocity is but one measure), and demand for various goods and services (which themselves may be in abundance or short supply).
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| N.Y. Times: A secretive banking elite rules trading in derivatives Posted: 11 Dec 2010 04:57 PM PST By Louise Story http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/12/business/12advantage.html On the third Wednesday of every month, the nine members of an elite Wall Street society gather in Midtown Manhattan. The men share a goal: to protect the interests of big banks in the vast market for derivatives, one of the most profitable -- and controversial -- fields in finance. They also share a common secret: The details of their meetings, even their identities, have been strictly confidential. Drawn from giants like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, the bankers form a powerful committee that helps oversee trading in derivatives, instruments which, like insurance, are used to hedge risk. In theory, this group exists to safeguard the integrity of the multitrillion-dollar market. In practice, it also defends the dominance of the big banks. The banks in this group, which is affiliated with a new derivatives clearinghouse, have fought to block other banks from entering the market, and they are also trying to thwart efforts to make full information on prices and fees freely available. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property Company Press Release, October 27, 2010 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include: -- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres. -- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres. -- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre. Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest." For the company's full press release, please visit: http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf Banks' influence over this market, and over clearinghouses like the one this select group advises, has costly implications for businesses large and small, like Dan Singer's home heating-oil company in Westchester County, north of New York City. This fall, many of Mr. Singer's customers purchased fixed-rate plans to lock in winter heating oil at around $3 a gallon. While that price was above the prevailing $2.80 a gallon then, the contracts will protect homeowners if bitterly cold weather pushes the price higher. But Mr. Singer wonders if his company, Robison Oil, should be getting a better deal. He uses derivatives like swaps and options to create his fixed plans. But he has no idea how much lower his prices -- and his customers' prices -- could be, he says, because banks don't disclose fees associated with the derivatives. "At the end of the day, I don't know if I got a fair price, or what they're charging me," Mr. Singer said. Derivatives shift risk from one party to another, and they offer many benefits, like enabling Mr. Singer to sell his fixed plans without having to bear all the risk that oil prices could suddenly rise. Derivatives are also big business on Wall Street. Banks collect many billions of dollars annually in undisclosed fees associated with these instruments -- an amount that almost certainly would be lower if there were more competition and transparent prices. Just how much derivatives trading costs ordinary Americans is uncertain. The size and reach of this market has grown rapidly over the past two decades. Pension funds today use derivatives to hedge investments. States and cities use them to try to hold down borrowing costs. Airlines use them to secure steady fuel prices. Food companies use them to lock in prices of commodities like wheat or beef. The marketplace as it functions now "adds up to higher costs to all Americans," said Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates most derivatives. More oversight of the banks in this market is needed, he said. But big banks influence the rules governing derivatives through a variety of industry groups. The banks' latest point of influence are clearinghouses like ICE Trust, which holds the monthly meetings with the nine bankers in New York. Under the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, many derivatives will be traded via such clearinghouses. Mr. Gensler wants to lessen banks' control over these new institutions. But Republican lawmakers, many of whom received large campaign contributions from bankers who want to influence how the derivatives rules are written, say they plan to push back against much of the coming reform. On Thursday, the commission canceled a vote over a proposal to make prices more transparent, raising speculation that Mr. Gensler did not have enough support from his fellow commissioners. The Department of Justice is looking into derivatives too. The department's antitrust unit is actively investigating "the possibility of anticompetitive practices in the credit derivatives clearing, trading, and information services industries," according to a department spokeswoman. Indeed, the derivatives market today reminds some experts of the Nasdaq stock market in the 1990s. Back then, the Justice Department discovered that Nasdaq market makers were secretly colluding to protect their own profits. Following that scandal, reforms and electronic trading systems cut Nasdaq stock trading costs to 1/20th of their former level -- an enormous savings for investors. "When you limit participation in the governance of an entity to a few like-minded institutions or individuals who have an interest in keeping competitors out, you have the potential for bad things to happen. It's Antitrust 101," said Robert E. Litan, who helped oversee the Justice Department's Nasdaq investigation as deputy assistant attorney general and is now a fellow at the Kauffman Foundation. "The history of derivatives trading is it has grown up as a very concentrated industry, and old habits are hard to break." Representatives from the nine banks that dominate the market declined to comment on the Department of Justice investigation. Clearing involves keeping track of trades and providing a central repository for money backing those wagers. A spokeswoman for Deutsche Bank, which is among the most influential of the group, said this system will reduce the risks in the market. She said that Deutsche is focused on ensuring this process is put in place without disrupting the marketplace. The Deutsche spokeswoman also said the banks' role in this process has been a success, saying in a statement that the effort "is one of the best examples of public-private partnerships." The Bank of New York Mellon's origins go back to 1784, when it was founded by Alexander Hamilton. Today it provides administrative services on more than $23 trillion of institutional money. Recently, the bank has been seeking to enter the inner circle of the derivatives market, but so far it has been rebuffed. Bank of New York officials say they have been thwarted by competitors who control important committees at the new clearinghouses, which were set up in the wake of the financial crisis. Bank of New York Mellon has been trying to become a so-called clearing member since early this year. But three of the four main clearinghouses told the bank that its derivatives operation has too little capital, and thus potentially poses too much risk to the overall market. The bank dismisses that explanation as absurd. "We are not a nobody," said Sanjay Kannambadi, chief executive of BNY Mellon Clearing, a subsidiary created to get into the business. "But we don't qualify. We certainly think that's kind of crazy." The real reason the bank is being shut out, he said, is that rivals want to preserve their profit margins, and they are the ones who helped write the membership rules. Mr. Kannambadi said Bank of New York's clients asked it to enter the derivatives business because they believe they are being charged too much by big banks. Its entry could lower fees. Others that have yet to gain full entry to the derivatives trading club are the State Street Corp. and small brokerage firms like MF Global and Newedge. The criteria seem arbitrary, said Marcus Katz, a senior vice president at Newedge, which is owned by two big French banks. "It appears that the membership criteria were set so that a certain group of market participants could meet that, and everyone else would have to jump through hoops," Mr. Katz said. The one new derivatives clearinghouse that has welcomed Newedge, Bank of New York, and the others -- Nasdaq -- has been avoided by the big derivatives banks. How did big banks come to have such influence that they can decide who can compete with them? Ironically, this development grew in part out of worries during the height of the financial crisis in 2008. A major concern during the meltdown was that no one -- not even government regulators -- fully understood the size and interconnections of the derivatives market, especially the market in credit default swaps, which insure against defaults of companies or mortgages bonds. The panic led to the need to bail out the American International Group, for instance, which had C.D.S. contracts with many large banks. In the midst of the turmoil, regulators ordered banks to speed up plans -- long in the making -- to set up a clearinghouse to handle derivatives trading. The intent was to reduce risk and increase stability in the market. Two established exchanges that trade commodities and futures, the InterContinentalExchange, or ICE, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, set up clearinghouses, and, so did Nasdaq. Each of these new clearinghouses had to persuade big banks to join their efforts, and they doled out membership on their risk committees, which is where trading rules are written, as an incentive. None of the three clearinghouses would divulge the members of their risk committees when asked by a reporter. But two people with direct knowledge of ICE's committee said the bank members are: Thomas J. Benison of JPMorgan Chase & Co.; James J. Hill of Morgan Stanley; Athanassios Diplas of Deutsche Bank; Paul Hamill of UBS; Paul Mitrokostas of Barclays; Andy Hubbard of Credit Suisse; Oliver Frankel of Goldman Sachs; Ali Balali of Bank of America; and Biswarup Chatterjee of Citigroup. Through representatives, these bankers declined to discuss the committee or the derivatives market. Some of the spokesmen noted that the bankers have expertise that helps the clearinghouse. Many of these same people hold influential positions at other clearinghouses, or on committees at the powerful International Swaps and Derivatives Association, which helps govern the market. Critics have called these banks the "derivatives dealers club," and they warn that the club is unlikely to give up ground easily. "The revenue these dealers make on derivatives is very large and so the incentive they have to protect those revenues is extremely large," said Darrell Duffie, a professor at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, who studied the derivatives market earlier this year with Federal Reserve researchers. "It will be hard for the dealers to keep their market share if everybody who can prove their creditworthiness is allowed into the clearinghouses. So they are making arguments that others shouldn't be allowed in." Perhaps no business in finance is as profitable today as derivatives. Not making loans. Not offering credit cards. Not advising on mergers and acquisitions. Not managing money for the wealthy. The precise amount that banks make trading derivatives isn't known, but there is anecdotal evidence of their profitability. Former bank traders who spoke on condition of anonymity because of confidentiality agreements with their former employers said their banks typically earned $25,000 for providing $25 million of insurance against the risk that a corporation might default on its debt via the swaps market. These traders turn over millions of dollars in these trades every day, and credit default swaps are just one of many kinds of derivatives. The secrecy surrounding derivatives trading is a key factor enabling banks to make such large profits. If an investor trades shares of Google or Coca-Cola or any other company on a stock exchange, the price -- and the commission, or fee -- are known. Electronic trading has made this information available to anyone with a computer, while also increasing competition -- and sharply lowering the cost of trading. Even corporate bonds have become more transparent recently. Trading costs dropped there almost immediately after prices became more visible in 2002. Not so with derivatives. For many, there is no central exchange, like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, where the prices of derivatives are listed. Instead, when a company or an investor wants to buy a derivative contract for, say, oil or wheat or securitized mortgages, an order is placed with a trader at a bank. The trader matches that order with someone selling the same type of derivative. Banks explain that many derivatives trades have to work this way because they are often customized, unlike shares of stock. One share of Google is the same as any other. But the terms of an oil derivatives contract can vary greatly. And the profits on most derivatives are masked. In most cases, buyers are told only what they have to pay for the derivative contract, say $25 million. That amount is more than the seller gets, but how much more -- $5,000, $25,000, or $50,000 more -- is unknown. That's because the seller also is told only the amount he will receive. The difference between the two is the bank's fee and profit. So the bigger the difference, the better for the bank -- and the worse for the customers. It would be like a real estate agent selling a house, but the buyer knowing only what he paid and the seller knowing only what he received. The agent would pocket the difference as his fee, rather than disclose it. Moreover, only the real estate agent -- and neither buyer nor seller -- would have easy access to the prices paid recently for other homes on the same block. Two years ago, Kenneth C. Griffin, owner of the giant hedge fund Citadel Group, which is based in Chicago, proposed open pricing for commonly traded derivatives, by quoting their prices electronically. Citadel oversees $11 billion in assets, so saving even a few percentage points in costs on each trade could add up to tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars a year. But Mr. Griffin's proposal for an electronic exchange quickly ran into opposition, and what happened is a window into how banks have fiercely fought competition and open pricing. To get a transparent exchange going, Citadel offered the use of its technological prowess for a joint venture with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which is best-known as a trading outpost for contracts on commodities like coffee and cotton. The goal was to set up a clearinghouse as well as an electronic trading system that would display prices for credit default swaps. Big banks that handle most derivatives trades, including Citadel's, didn't like Citadel's idea. Electronic trading might connect customers directly with each other, cutting out the banks as middlemen. So the banks responded in the fall of 2008 by pairing with ICE, one of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's rivals, which was setting up its own clearinghouse. The banks attached a number of conditions on that partnership, which came in the form of a merger between ICE's clearinghouse and a nascent clearinghouse that the banks were establishing. These conditions gave the banks significant power at ICE's clearinghouse, according to two people with knowledge of the deal. For instance, the banks insisted that ICE install the chief executive of their effort as the head of the joint effort. That executive, Dirk Pruis, left after about a year and now works at Goldman Sachs. Through a spokesman, he declined to comment. The banks also refused to allow the deal with ICE to close until the clearinghouse's rulebook was established, with provisions in the banks' favor. Key among those were the membership rules, which required members to hold large amounts of capital in derivatives units, a condition that was prohibitive even for some large banks like the Bank of New York. The banks also required ICE to provide market data exclusively to Markit, a little-known company that plays a pivotal role in derivatives. Backed by Goldman, JPMorgan, and several other banks, Markit provides crucial information about derivatives, like prices. Kevin Gould, who is the president of Markit and was involved in the clearinghouse merger, said the banks were simply being prudent and wanted rules that protected the market and themselves. "The one thing I know the banks are concerned about is their risk capital," he said. "You really are going to get some comfort that the way the entity operates isn't going to put you at undue risk." Even though the banks were working with ICE, Citadel, and the C.M.E. continued to move forward with their exchange. They, too, needed to work with Markit, because it owns the rights to certain derivatives indexes. But Markit put them in a tough spot by basically insisting that every trade involve at least one bank, since the banks are the main parties that have licenses with Markit. This demand from Markit effectively secured a permanent role for the big derivatives banks since Citadel and the C.M.E. could not move forward without Markit's agreement. And so, essentially boxed in, they agreed to the terms, according to the two people with knowledge of the matter. (A spokesman for C.M.E. said last week that the exchange did not cave to Markit's terms.) Still, even after that deal was complete, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange soon had second thoughts about working with Citadel and about introducing electronic screens at all. The C.M.E. backed out of the deal in mid-2009, ending Mr. Griffin's dream of a new, electronic trading system. With Citadel out of the picture, the banks agreed to join the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's clearinghouse effort. The exchange set up a risk committee that, like ICE's committee, was mainly populated by bankers. It remains unclear why the C.M.E. ended its electronic trading initiative. Two people with knowledge of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's clearinghouse said the banks refused to get involved unless the exchange dropped Citadel and the entire plan for electronic trading. Kim Taylor, the president of Chicago Mercantile Exchange's clearing division, said "the market" simply wasn't interested in Mr. Griffin's idea. Critics now say the banks have an edge because they have had early control of the new clearinghouses' risk committees. Ms. Taylor at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange said the people on those committees are supposed to look out for the interest of the broad market, rather than their own narrow interests. She likened the banks' role to that of Washington lawmakers who look out for the interests of the nation, not just their constituencies. "It's not like the sort of representation where if I'm elected to be the representative from the state of Illinois, I go there to represent the state of Illinois," Ms. Taylor said in an interview. Officials at ICE, meantime, said they solicit views from customers through a committee that is separate from the bank-dominated risk committee. "We spent and we still continue to spend a lot of time on thinking about governance," said Peter Barsoom, the chief operating officer of ICE Trust. "We want to be sure that we have all the right stakeholders appropriately represented." Mr. Griffin said last week that customers have so far paid the price for not yet having electronic trading. He puts the toll, by a rough estimate, in the tens of billions of dollars, saying that electronic trading would remove much of this "economic rent the dealers enjoy from a market that is so opaque." "It's a stunning amount of money," Mr. Griffin said. "The key players today in the derivatives market are very apprehensive about whether or not they will be winners or losers as we move toward more transparent, fairer markets, and since they're not sure if they'll be winners or losers, their basic instinct is to resist change." The result of the maneuvering of the past couple years is that big banks dominate the risk committees of not one, but two of the most prominent new clearinghouses in the United States. That puts them in a pivotal position to determine how derivatives are traded. Under the Dodd-Frank bill, the clearinghouses were given broad authority. The risk committees there will help decide what prices will be charged for clearing trades, on top of fees banks collect for matching buyers and sellers, and how much money customers must put up as collateral to cover potential losses. Perhaps more important, the risk committees will recommend which derivatives should be handled through clearinghouses, and which should be exempt. Regulators will have the final say. But banks, which lobbied heavily to limit derivatives regulation in the Dodd-Frank bill, are likely to argue that few types of derivatives should have to go through clearinghouses. Critics contend that the bankers will try to keep many types of derivatives away from the clearinghouses, since clearinghouses represent a step towards broad electronic trading that could decimate profits. The banks already have a head start. Even a newly proposed rule to limit the banks' influence over clearing allows them to retain majorities on risk committees. It remains unclear whether regulators creating the new rules -- on topics like transparency and possible electronic trading -- will drastically change derivatives trading, or leave the bankers with great control. One former regulator warned against deferring to the banks. Theo Lubke, who until this fall oversaw the derivatives reforms at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said banks do not always think of the market as a whole as they help write rules. "Fundamentally, the banks are not good at self-regulation," Mr. Lubke said in a panel last March at Columbia University. "That's not their expertise. That's not their primary interest." Join GATA here: Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference http://theyukonroom.com/yuk
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| Charlie Rose interviews Munk, Hathaway, and Grant on gold Posted: 11 Dec 2010 04:39 PM PST 12:34a ET Sunday, December 12, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver): The Charlie Rose program on the Public Broadcasting System in the United States devoted a half hour to gold last Monday, interviewing Barrick Gold Chairman Peter Munk, Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway, and Grant's Interest Rate Observer publisher James Grant. While the program never touched on government manipulation of the gold market, at least all three guests acknowledged gold's immutable function as money, and as the three are major figures in the little gold universe even as they are not often seen on television, precious metals investors likely will be very interested to watch them. The program can be found at the Charlie Rose Internet site here: http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11330 CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20. Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan power plants in Mongolia." The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies. For the complete press release, please visit: http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php Join GATA here: Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference http://theyukonroom.com/yukon-eblast-static.html Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2011/15 Cheviot Asset Management Sound Money Conference Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going: GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Company Press Release, October 27, 2010 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include: -- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres. -- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres. -- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre. Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest." For the company's full press release, please visit: http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf
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| Absolute Flushing of the "Marks" by the Sharks Posted: 11 Dec 2010 04:00 PM PST View the original post at jsmineset.com... December 11, 2010 07:33 PM A mistake for whom? There is only one side of the trade here – the right side. Success or failure will be determined by market forces not bureaucrats. While certain groups will always setup the mark(s), their operations will never alter the secular trends. The Euro will reverse as the dollar inevitably weakens when the specs and retail money have been herded for slaughter to the other side of the trade. Markdown will soon give way to accumulation. Euro and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest: Absolute flushing of the "marks" by the sharks. That’s the kind description. Euro and the Non-reportable Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest: Don’t bet against euro: German finance minister Sat Dec 11, 11:13 am ET BERLIN (Reuters) – Europe’s si...
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| Posted: 11 Dec 2010 04:00 PM PST View the original post at jsmineset.com... December 11, 2010 12:58 PM Greetings Jim! Gold closed near unchanged yesterday, holding below recent all-time highs of the secular bull market. Price action has been characterized by volatile swings higher and lower during the past two months as the long-term uptrend has consolidated recent gains of the rally from late July. Cycle analysis indicates the gold market is attempting to form a short-term low near the $1,380 congestion support area. On the weekly chart, the intermediate-term cycle has also entered the window during which the latest Intermediate-Term Cycle Low (ITCL) is most likely to develop. The ITCL may have already occurred on November 19, and a strong move higher during the next few weeks would both confirm that the latest intermediate-term low is in place and forecast substantial gains during the coming months. The positive divergence between the Gold Currency Index (GCI) and gold in US dollar terms remains in...
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| Imitation is the Sincerest Form of Flattery Posted: 11 Dec 2010 04:00 PM PST View the original post at jsmineset.com... December 11, 2010 12:45 PM Subject: UBS is reading JsMineset!! – USD 1,650/oz in UBS Global Outlook for 2011 Dear Jim, It gives a price target of USD 1,650/oz for 2011! It says so on page 20 Best regards, CIGA Christopher "As such, commodity prices across all sectors are expected to rise further (see Fig. 21). We favor commodities where supply growth is limited, such as gold, copper and corn, and where prices haven't seen exponential increases, such as cotton and silver. The reduction in OPEC spare capacity on the back of firm Asian oil demand should pave the way for price moves to USD 100/bbl over the next 12 months. As a consequence of a lack of trust in the major currencies and inflation concerns, further price rises are likely, with gold seeing peak levels at around USD 1,650/oz, in our view.” (See report). Dear Jim, As you have said Volcker won it all, Bernanke gave it all away! David Stockman, former director...
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| MineWeb notes reports of banks failing to return metal Posted: 11 Dec 2010 03:53 PM PST 11:50p ET Saturday, December 11, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver): MineWeb's Lawrence Williams this week took note of the King World News interviews with Jim Rickards and James Turk that reported cases of precious metals investors unable to get their custodial metal returned by banks within a reasonable time. Williams' report is headlined "Some Banks Unwilling to Hand Over Client-Held Physical Gold and Silver?" and you can find it at MineWeb here: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=116632&sn=Deta... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Opportunity in the gold coin market Swiss America Trading Corp. alerts GATA supporters to an opportunistic area of the gold coin market. While the gold bullion market has been quite volatile lately and as of November 29 gold has risen only $7 per ounce over the last month, the MS64 $20 gold St. Gaudens coin has risen about 10 percent in the same time. The ratio between the price of these coins and the price of gold is rising. If you'd like to learn more about the ratio and $20 gold coins, Swiss America can e-mail you a three-year study of it as well as other information. Swiss America also can provide a limited number of free copies of "Crashing the Dollar," a book written by Swiss America's president, Craig Smith. For information about the ratio between the $20 gold pieces and the gold price and for a free copy of "Crashing The Dollar," please call Swiss America's Tim Murphy at 1-800-289-2646 X1041 or Fred Goldstein at X1033. Or e-mail them at trmurphy@swissamerica.com and figoldstein@swissamerica.com. Join GATA here: Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference http://theyukonroom.com/yukon-eblast-static.html Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2011/15 Cheviot Asset Management Sound Money Conference Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Drills 71.17 Metres of 0.52 percent NiEq Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V: PCY) reports that it has received additional assays results from its 100-percent-owned Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu property in the Yukon, Canada. Diamond drill holes WS10-179 to WS10-182 were drilled during the summer of 2010 by Northern Platinum (which merged with Prophecy on September 23, 2010). WS10-183 was drilled by Prophecy in October 2010. Highlights from the newly received assays include 71.17 metres from surface of 0.52 percent NiEq (0.310 percent nickel, 0.466 g/t PGMs + Au, and 0.233 percent copper) and ended in mineralization. For more drill highlights, please visit: http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov29.php
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| The SilverGoldBull Miners Challenge Posted: 11 Dec 2010 03:38 PM PST When we first came up with our plans for our Miners Challenge, we thought it would be a good opportunity for a sponsor to step forward and make a "name" for themselves with our members – by being the ones who actually hand out the bullion prizes which we are awarding our winners. We approached different companies with the concept, but when the time came for actually putting up the bullion (which will make a few lucky members very happy), it turns out that we really didn't have to look very far, after all. Having already spread some of their silver coins among our members in our other reader promotions (including being the sponsor for our new "Question of the Month" contest), SilverGoldBull.com decided that it was time to add some gold to that bounty. As a reminder (and for those not yet familiar with the concept), our Miners Challenge runs from October 1 – March 31, with each entrant being required to pick the precious metals miner they believe will achieve the highest percentage gain in its share price over the contest period. 1st prize: one 1-oz gold coin 2nd prize: one ½-oz gold coin 3rd prize: one ¼-oz gold coin Halfway leader: one ¼-oz gold coin Currently, our leader Clint009 has a significant lead over the runner-up Marcocruces, who in turn has quite a large lead on the nearest other contestants. However, because no contestant is eligible to win more than one prize, we're not going to know who to award our "halfway" prize to until the end. Should the halfway leader finish in first or second place, obviously they will choose the even larger prize they have won, allowing someone farther down the list to scoop-up the halfway prize. This means that virtually all of our contestants are still in the running for a possible prize, as we near the halfway point. On behalf of our future winners, we would like to thank SilverGoldBull.com for their generosity – and remind them that if they still have more of those shiny, gold coins to give away that Chad, Brian, and I wouldn't mind a few as "stocking stuffers"…
A complete list of our contestants appears below: |
| Turk confirms stories of banks' balkiness returning precious metals Posted: 11 Dec 2010 03:37 PM PST 11:30p ET Saturday, December 11, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver): The full audio of this week's King World News interview with GoldMoney founder James Turk, excerpted for you Wednesday (http://www.gata.org/node/9400), has been posted at KWN, wherein Turk confirms accounts of people unable to retrieve their precious metals from banks. He also advocates a dollar-cost-averaging system for investing in precious metals, since, he says, a few more years of their bull market will put every purchase comfortably ahead. The interview is not quite 13 minutes long and you can find it at King World News here: http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/12/11_... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property Company Press Release, October 27, 2010 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include: -- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres. -- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres. -- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre. Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest." For the company's full press release, please visit: http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf Join GATA here: Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference http://theyukonroom.com/yukon-eblast-static.html Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2011/15 Cheviot Asset Management Sound Money Conference Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Drills 71.17 Metres of 0.52% NiEq Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V: PCY) reports that it has received additional assays results from its 100-percent-owned Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu property in the Yukon, Canada. Diamond drill holes WS10-179 to WS10-182 were drilled during the summer of 2010 by Northern Platinum (which merged with Prophecy on September 23, 2010). WS10-183 was drilled by Prophecy in October 2010. Highlights from the newly received assays include 71.17 metres from surface of 0.52 percent NiEq (0.310 percent nickel, 0.466 g/t PGMs + Au, and 0.233 percent copper) and ended in mineralization. For more drill highlights, please visit: http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov29.php
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| Turk confirms stories of banks' balkiness returning precious metals Posted: 11 Dec 2010 03:37 PM PST 11:30p ET Saturday, December 11, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver): The full audio of this week's King World News interview with GoldMoney founder James Turk, excerpted for you Wednesday (http://www.gata.org/node/9400), has been posted at KWN, wherein Turk confirms accounts of people unable to retrieve their precious metals from banks. He also advocates a dollar-cost-averaging system for investing in precious metals, since, he says, a few more years of their bull market will put every purchase comfortably ahead. The interview is not quite 13 minutes long and you can find it at King World News here: http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/12/11_... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property Company Press Release, October 27, 2010 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include: -- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres. -- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres. -- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre. Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest." For the company's full press release, please visit: http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf Join GATA here: Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference http://theyukonroom.com/yukon-eblast-static.html Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2011/15 Cheviot Asset Management Sound Money Conference Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Drills 71.17 Metres of 0.52% NiEq Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V: PCY) reports that it has received additional assays results from its 100-percent-owned Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu property in the Yukon, Canada. Diamond drill holes WS10-179 to WS10-182 were drilled during the summer of 2010 by Northern Platinum (which merged with Prophecy on September 23, 2010). WS10-183 was drilled by Prophecy in October 2010. Highlights from the newly received assays include 71.17 metres from surface of 0.52 percent NiEq (0.310 percent nickel, 0.466 g/t PGMs + Au, and 0.233 percent copper) and ended in mineralization. For more drill highlights, please visit: http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov29.php
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| Posted: 11 Dec 2010 03:16 PM PST A Cautionary Tale Dear Jim, The following story is, frankly, embarrassing. But it may be helpful to remind our fellow CIGAs of the reality of the world we live in — and perhaps it may even prevent some of them from experiencing what I've just gone through… We are in the process of relocating from the Chicago area to south Florida. Last Saturday night, with baby twins and our 5-year old daughter in tow, my wife and I arrived at a Holiday Inn in White House, Tennessee. I wanted to keep driving, but my wife, due to her concern for the children and her needed sleep, demanded that we stop for the night. It was below freezing and with three children crying and screaming (once they got out in the cold), in a temperature-induced rush, I made several trips back and forth from my room to the truck to get the necessities of travel for my family up to the room. I was a bit concerned about the stuff in my truck and in the boat I was towing but it would be impossible to unload everything we had packed. It was supposed to be a good neighborhood (according to the front desk clerk). I did not think I had a very significant amount of gold with me on this trip, just a small bag of small coins (mostly quarter ounce Maple Leafs, but also some old German Marks and Mexican Peso coins). I never bought these coins individually (or at any premium), simply because they were usually a means for my local coin dealer to round up my larger purchases to get to the weight I ordered. I would keep these small coins as traveling insurance against sudden currency or systemic collapse. I entered the coins into my spreadsheet, but was not cognizant of their specific value – -that is until my truck was broken into that night and it was all stolen! It came to 27 ounces of gold. Apparently there are two White Houses where people get ripped off. The cop I sat down with to calculate their value got kind of wide-eyed when we figured the loss at more than $38,000 including a few other coins. He asked if I was some kind of collector. I said I had gold for financial insurance and investment purposes. He said something like, "Really? I never thought of gold that way." (I guess we're still quite a bit away from a mania top!) But even worse than losing my coins, I remembered I had, at the last moment of packing (throwing things in the bag in a bad mood and, again, in a rush because of the snow storm and another little argument me and the wife were having at the time) put a special diamond ring in the bag that my late mother gave to my wife made from her wedding engagement diamond and a gold luck charm she had melted down and had made into the ring. My Mom told my wife at the time that despite all the other wives and grandchildren in the family, that she had never felt the urge to give it away until she met her. She wanted us to pass it down to one of our daughters. We had intended to give it to the daughter we named after Mom after she passed away. Its value at a pawn shop? – Probably modest. Its value to me and my family – priceless. And there were other things taken as well. In fact, since we will not be unloading the rest of the truck until we move into our more permanent home in Boca Raton tomorrow, we will not be able to say 100% for sure if there won't be something else we discover missing. Here's a few things I have taken away from the experience… 1) It's foolish to not take better care of these things. If you're not especially detail-oriented, like me, it would be wise to pay someone to cover the details (one of the many reasons I shipped all my physical–except these small coins–to the trusted vaults of a 400-year old, small, family-owned Swiss bank earlier this year). This could never happen to some people, but if you're known as a "big picture" guy or gal who's not so good on the details, better have back-up! 2) As Gerald Celente has said, "When people lose everything, when they have nothing left to lose, they lose it." We don't know if this was a small-time "professional" thief or someone who was more desperate–perhaps an out-of-work guy who broke in out of some perceived need to survive (strangely, they stole a couple of bags filled with cosmetics, but left a portable GPS device). In our lake front neighborhood in a far northwest Chicago suburb, we have always felt safe leaving the doors unlocked–even as recently as a couple of years ago. We have great neighbors and we all keep watch for each other. To think we're safe without additional security, today is just plain foolish. That America–the safe one with unlocked doors–is so long gone. We are refocusing on family security measures as a result of this experience. But most importantly, while the bullion coins were a great financial loss as I told my lovely wife (all the arguments mentioned above were my fault not hers!), "this was an inexpensive lesson. An expensive lesson is when someone gets hurt or killed." The biggest loss may have been my mother's ring but even that would have been sacrificed by my own mother if she thought it would protect any of her children or grandchildren. Who knows? Perhaps this lesson and the additional security precautions it has caused us to take may in fact, save one of our lives. I am so thankful, and blessed, that I am still wealthy beyond measure due to my 6 beautiful children, my gorgeous, loving wife and the rest of our families. And while we're at it, we're also thankful for you, Jim, because we paid a lot less than $38,000 for those coins! And because you're still helping protect my family though your work here at jsmineset.com. Peace and warmest regards, CIGA Grateful
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| Weekly precious metals review at King World News Posted: 11 Dec 2010 02:58 PM PST 11p ET Saturday, December 11, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver): The weekly precious metals market review at King World News, featuring comments by Bill Haynes of CMI Gold & Silver and Dan Norcini of JSMineSet.com, is 21 minutes long and can be found at the KWN Internet site here: http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/12/11_... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20. Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan power plants in Mongolia." The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies. For the complete press release, please visit: http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php Join GATA here: Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference http://theyukonroom.com/yukon-eblast-static.html Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2011/15 Cheviot Asset Management Sound Money Conference Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going: GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Company Press Release, October 27, 2010 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include: -- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres. -- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres. -- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre. Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest." For the company's full press release, please visit: http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf
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| Is Santa Claus Rally Almost Done? Posted: 11 Dec 2010 02:49 PM PST
Edward Krudy of Reuters reports, Is Santa Claus rally almost done?: The December rally may be reaching its climax, with just two weeks to go before Santa Claus makes his midnight run. Dwindling volume, excess optimism, and history all point to a stock market that could be running out of steam. Investors appear to have grown complacent as the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX .VIX, has fallen to levels not seen since April. Stocks have made new highs on almost a daily basis. The S&P 500 .SPX closed on Friday at its highest level since September 2008 and the Nasdaq .IXIC scored its best finish since late December 2007, with many expecting gains to run through the end of the year. But Cleveland Rueckert, an analyst at Birinyi Associates in Stamford, Connecticut, believes the year-end rally may be largely done. "The majority of that gain may already have occurred," he said. "Most people are more likely to be closing out their books at the end of the month and looking for opportunities to open new positions at the start of the next month." Rueckert said that over the last 65 years, when the S&P 500 has rallied at year's end, the average gain has been 3.4 percent between Thanksgiving and New Year's. So far, the index has risen 3.5 percent since the start of the period. "A lot of stocks this year have had very big gains and it really wouldn't be surprising to see a lot of the managers close out positions and take some vacation time," he said. When trading resumes on Monday, that will start the last five-day trading week before Christmas. The following week will be cut short by the holiday. With December 25th falling on Saturday this year, the U.S. stock market will be closed on Friday, December 24th, in observance of the Christmas holiday. Inflation data for November will dominate next week's economic calendar, with the U.S. Producer Price Index due on Tuesday and the U.S. Consumer Price Index set for Wednesday. BULLS IN THE EGGNOG Some see signs of the bulls getting into the eggnog. The American Association of Individual Investors' latest sentiment survey shows bullish sentiment reached a four-week high. What's more, bullish sentiment has spent 14 weeks above its historical average -- its longest streak in six years. That is often seen as a contrarian indicator. This week, the S&P 500 has broken through closely watched resistance levels and has climbed for six of the last eight days to close at fresh two-year highs. But gains have been accompanied by decreasing participation. Average volume during the last three days of the week was 7.76 billion, well below this year's daily average of 8.62 billion. "We are entering now the beginning of the seasonal pattern where volume really dries up," said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group in New York. "It seems like it's starting a little sooner than usual. "I don't think we're at any risk of a meaningful sell-off into the end of the year, but I think the basic contours of what the economy looks like are pretty well set," he said. That sentiment was reflected in the VIX, also known as Wall Street's favorite barometer of investor fear. Although the VIX edged up on Friday, the index has fallen for six of the last nine sessions. It now stands at 17.61 after hitting its lowest since April. The 15-day moving average of the advance/decline ratio on the New York Stock Exchange, a measure of the proportion of advancing to falling stocks, has started to slip and currently stands at around 1.5. It peaked this year in July at about double that, according to Reuters data. In addition, the 3-day moving average of stocks making new 52-week highs has also turned lower after a spurt at the start of the month. It now stands at around 125, down from more than 250 at the start of the month. The breadth and ratios have not been "on board" this rally of late, according to a report from McMillan Analysis Corp. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on "sell" signals, the analysts say. Chart-minded investors are bullish. The S&P 500 has closed well above 1,228, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 2007-2009 bear market slide, a key technical level. "When a market surpasses a certain retracement level, then the probability increases of a rise to the next retracement level, which in this case would be a 76.4 percent retracement and that's a ways up at 1,362," said Chris Burba, short-term market technician at Standard & Poor's. The 1,120 level, the top of a recent trading range, is seen as strong support. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 1,240.40 and was up 1.3 percent for the week. The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI ended Friday's session at 11,410.32 and was up just 0.2 percent for the week. The Nasdaq closed on Friday at 2,637.54; for the week, the Nasdaq was up 1.8 percent. LOOK OUT FOR FED HAWKS An agreement to extend the Bush-era tax cuts over the next two years has started to seem like less of a done deal. The agreement is expected to be approved by the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, but could face a tougher road to passage in the House. If the legislation stalls, resulting in higher capital gains and dividend taxes at the start of next year, then U.S. stock prices could fall. The Federal Reserve's policy-making body, the Federal Open Markets Committee, will convene on Tuesday for its last meeting of the year. The recent clutch of stronger economic data could spark a debate over how far to stretch the central bank's $600 billion stimulus plan, designed to keep interest rate low through bond purchases. "The hawkish members on the Fed may seize on this cluster of strong numbers and use them to support the argument against" quantitative easing, said Pierre Ellis, senior global economist at Decision Economics in New York. I used to analyze all these technical indicators to death. No more. I don't care how low the VIX is, it could go lower and stay there for a long time. I continue to believe that institutional and retail investors should continue buying any dip that comes their way. Look at November. Everybody thought Europe was going to collapse. Admittedly, the Irish bailout is not a done deal, and Europe is a mess, but the fact remains that there are powerful interests that want to see this rally continue as long as possible. Why do I believe that QE 2.0 is not the end of it? Two reasons. First, policy remains reflate and inflate at all cost. The Fed and other central bankers will accommodate the global financial system, providing the banks with cheap funds to buy bonds, making an instant profit which they use to buy higher-yielding risks assets all around the world. This will shore up bank balance sheets and hopefully trickle to retail investors who desperately need a wealth effect (but wealth effect from stocks is much weaker than the one from real estate). The second and more important reason why I believe QE is here to stay is that the US economy is still at risk for experiencing debt deflation. I want all of my readers to carefully read Part 3 of an interview posted on Huffington Post between Michael Hudson the report, and Michael Hudson the economist. Part 3 is available here (and you can read Part 1 of "My Talk With Michael Hudson" here and Part 2 here.) I quote Michael Hudson, economist:
I don't agree with Michael that we've entered debt deflation (at least not yet), and corporate profits are rising, not falling. And while I do agree with him on creditor-friendly views swamping common sense in academic economics, I also know that the financial oligarchs and their powerful lobbies have a stranglehold on the economy. They get first dibs, and if there are any crumbs left over, then they'll lend to small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). The big banks don't care about lending to SMEs. They care about profits, which is why they continue trading aggressively in their capital markets operations. It's liquid and pretty easy for them to lock in spreads and trade high-yielding risk assets. What does this have to do with the Santa Claus rally? In the short-run, nobody knows how stocks will react. Over on Zero Hedge, RobotTrader posted a link to Investor's Business Daily Top 100 list. Should you rush out to buy Priceline (PCLN) at $400? It could go higher but the time to have bought PCLN and a bunch of other gems was back in January/ February 2009 when I wrote about post-deleveraging blues and recommended a few of them. The great thing about the stock market is there is always an opportunity, especially when you have a tsunami of liquidity out there looking for yield. Don't get too caught up in all these technical indicators or in the negative macro news environment. At the end of the day, the powers that be will keep buying the dips because it's all part of the master plan to avoid debt deflation at any cost. Will it work? That remains to be seen. If you read Hoisington's interim quarterly update, the US economy is still in a growth recession and monetary policy is ineffective. I quote the following:
So when we speak of Santa Claus rally, we should qualify it. It's great for the financial elite making millions in bonuses, but for the average household struggling to get by, it means absolutely nothing, especially if the economy keeps hemorrhaging jobs or creates insufficient job gains. We are not out of the woods, especially on the economy, but something tells me the stock market will continue climbing the wall of worry, much like it did back in 2004.
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| Absolute Flushing of the "Marks" by the Sharks Posted: 11 Dec 2010 02:33 PM PST A mistake for whom? There is only one side of the trade here – the right side. Success or failure will be determined by market forces not bureaucrats. While certain groups will always setup the mark(s), their operations will never alter the secular trends. The Euro will reverse as the dollar inevitably weakens when the specs and retail money have been herded for slaughter to the other side of the trade. Markdown will soon give way to accumulation. Euro and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest: |
| Van Hoisington's Latest Observations On The "Growth Recession" Posted: 11 Dec 2010 11:26 AM PST
By Van Hoisington Growth Recession
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a recent television interview that economic growth was not “self sustaining.” This description also applies to an economy that is in a classic growth recession. A growth recession is characterized as an economy where GDP grows but the unemployment rate also moves higher.
A close look at the U.S. economy bears out Chairman Bernanke's description. The economy has been expanding for 17 months, yet both the labor force participation rate and the employment to population ratio stand at new cyclical lows and beneath the cyclical lows of the prior expansion. This is an unprecedented development (Chart 1). For the past 19 months, the unemployment rate has been above 9%, underscoring the harshness of labor market conditions. The employment to population ratio, which is a better measure of labor market conditions than the unemployment rate, was at the cyclical low of 58.2% in November, matching the lowest reading since 1984.
In addition to the increase in the number of unemployed, the quality of jobs remaining in the system is also falling. 478,000 full-time jobs were lost in November, increasing the six month loss in this most important employment category to 1.6 million (Chart 2). Part-time employment rose by 878,000 over the last six months, offsetting part of the loss in full time jobs, but substituting part-time for full-time employment lowers household income.
The U.S. has 15.1 million unemployed persons and another 11 million underemployed or marginally attached to the labor force. The latter is measured by the broad or U6 unemployment rate which stood at 17% in November. Not surprisingly, with this excess labor, the 12 month increase in average hourly earnings fell to a new cyclical low of 1.6% in November. A record 43 million persons receiving food stamps confirms the economic distress.
Monetary Policy Remains Ineffective
Operations by the Federal Reserve, including the start of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2), have increased bank reserves by approximately $1 trillion since the latter part of 2008. Virtually all of this gain is held in excess reserves at the Federal Reserve Banks earning very close to 10 basis points. In other words, the Fed has provided substantial new reserves to the banks and they have, in turn, deposited the funds back with the Fed.
Reserves are not money unless banks turn them into loans and deposits. Loans are made based on bank capital, which continues to erode because of loan write-offs due to increasing delinquency and default. The bulk of the problem loans are in the residential and commercial real estate. Additionally, the private sector does not have the balance sheet capacity to increase borrowings because their debt ratios are at or near record levels.
Many consider QE policy to be on a successful path because the psychology of its orchestration has boosted the stock market, thereby creating a wealth effect. However, QE has also set in motion unintended consequences. The same factors that have boosted equities have also lifted commodity prices and mortgage rates, both of which are damaging to economic activity.
Commodity loans can be financed at 1% or less. This encourages speculative buying of commodities for inventory, thereby causing food and fuel price increases. For household's of average means, funds for discretionary purchases are quickly drained. This is especially evident since the pump price is now at or above $3 a gallon. A 30-year mortgage rate approaching 5% only serves to accelerate the downward pressure on home prices - the main source of household wealth. In short, higher stock and commodity prices are not a net gain in current circumstances.
In the past twelve months M2 has risen 3.1% versus the 110 year average growth of 6.6%. If the velocity of money is unchanged in the next year, nominal GDP will rise by 3%. If inflation stays at the less than 1% pace, then real growth will be a paltry 2% in 2011. In the aftermath of failed financial innovation and private sector deleveraging, velocity of money has historically declined. Thus, real GDP may rise less than 2% next year. Either way, the unemployment rate will continue to rise. Fiscal policy influences GDP through the velocity of money. Thus, the new tax compromise may serve to stabilize velocity, but if it passes it will provide limited stimulus to the economy since most of the package is just an extension of existing tax rates, not a reduction in tax rates from current levels.
The Tax Compromise - a Minimal Boost
The tax compromise reached on December sixth between President Obama and the Republican leadership is in many respects like QE2. It plays to psychology but does little to improve fundamental economic conditions. The psychological benefit is that it ends the uncertainty of what tax rates will apply to 2011 and 2012. However, the lower tax rate only applies to these two years and thus, it does not constitute a permanent extension of the current tax rates. Substantial scientific economic research indicates that large responses to tax rate changes only occur when households believe that their permanent income has changed. Also, the contents of the tax compromise are designed for political impact rather than economic effect.
Social security tax rates are cut by 2%, an amount equaling $120 billion. This is a positive for the economy but the benefit is much smaller than it appears at first blush. Of this amount, $60 billion replaces the Making Working Pay outlays of 2009 and 2010. The cut in social security taxes does not exempt the wage earner from income taxes and this transitory boost to income may not be fully spent because of concerns of employment and income in the current environment. Such a cut is really no different that the rebate stimulus measures already unsuccessfully tried by Presidents Ford, Bush, and Obama.
The extension of unemployment benefits carries an expenditure multiplier of close to zero, meaning that there is no net boost to the economy. Historical experience indicates that accelerated depreciation will have a very limited impact until late in 2011. The accelerated depreciation will serve to pull 2012 capital outlays into 2011 in order to take advantage of the benefit. Thus, the net boost from the total package to GDP growth is not much more than 0.5%. This minimal short term benefit will be lost over time since the package increases aggregate indebtedness which is the main structural problem of the U.S. economy. Significant research indicates over-indebtedness leads to economic deterioration, heightened systemic risk and, in the case of major contractions, deflation.
State and Local Government Drag
When the state legislatures return to work in January, they face combined deficits in the vicinity of $280 billion. At this stage, most of the quick fixes and rainy day funds have already been exhausted. Deficits of this magnitude mean that cuts in spending and higher taxes are likely outcomes. In November, state and local governments cut 11,000 jobs, pushing the employment level in this sector back to the 2007 level. This will be an ongoing theme.
Bond Yields
The bond yield moves in the same direction as inflation about 70% of the time annually, and the correlation is even higher for longer periods of time. While there are numerous episodes when they have not lined up for shorter-time spans, this relationship is one of most stable in macroeconomics. The 30 year bond yield is currently well above 4% yet inflation is less than 1%, resulting in roughly a 3% real yield. The real yield has averaged about 2% over the last 140 years, suggesting value at these levels. The US inflation rate will continue to fall as the economy remains in a growth recession. In time (possibly soon!), this will produce lower long term Treasury yields.
Van R. Hoisington Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D.
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| UPDATE – - – UPDATE – - – Posted: 11 Dec 2010 10:30 AM PST MK: Bid Bullion is now working to get NWTM to update their site with info about the silver keisers. Will keep you posted. bid bullion is also adding comments to the 'comments section' of this site as they get more info upgrading their systems. also, i am now getting feedback from both – people who [...]
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| Posted: 11 Dec 2010 10:27 AM PST Bart Chilton, who continues to expose the CFTC and the banker cartel's illegal market manipulation practices Share this:
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| UPDATE – - – UPDATE – - – - UPDATE – - – RE: SILVERKEISER SITE Posted: 11 Dec 2010 09:24 AM PST MK: Just got this email: (below) obviously without a fully functioning site, no one can be expected to have full confidence in placing orders. I will update with any additional news as I get it. At some point – it would be great for bid bullion and NWTM to get fully in gear. . . [...]
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| Posted: 11 Dec 2010 08:52 AM PST I'll update when I get more info. Share this:
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| Deflationists Take Note: Bernanke Succeeds In Offsetting Shadow Banking Collapse Posted: 11 Dec 2010 08:29 AM PST
The biggest piece of news in Thursday's Z1 statement was not that consumers continue to deleverage, that corporate cash levels are at $1.9 trillion (of which $1 trillion is financial and half of the rest is held offshore: maybe instead of copying Zero Hedge charts, the WSJ could have actually focused on the story behind the headlines) or that the stock market continues to be the only manipulated delta in household net worth (even as wealth in real terms is dropping). A far more relevant and important data highlight has to do with the only thing that actually matters for the reflation of the monetary bubble: namely the fact that the contraction in the shadow banking system is continuing. Or so was the conventional wisdom. As of September 30, Bernanke has successfully stopped the net decline of monetary aggregates even when including the massive shadow banking system. As we have long claimed, every action by the Fed, every attempt at reflation, every bond purchase directly, and ES purchase indirectly courtesy of Citadel, have had the sole goal of counteracting the impact of the the collapsing shadow banking liabilities. Compared to shadow liabilities, which topped out at $21 trillion in March of 2008, all other monetary aggregates are irrelevant: this includes both their representation in bank balance sheets, such as traditional banking liabilities and the broadest representation of money stock tracked by the Fed, M2 (since as of 2006 M3 is no longer tracked due to the egregious costs of keeping track of this data). And the biggest, and so far most credible, argument that deflationists have had, is that the shadow banking system, and its reconstructed M3 proxy is plunging far faster than Bernanke is reflating other parallel aggregates. Well, that is now over. As of Q3 2009, the sequential change in shadow and traditional bank liabilities was net positive by $3.8 billion: this is the first time this number has posted an increase since December 2008! This fact should send a wedge of terror into the hearts of all those, both deflationists and inflationsts, who realize the significance of this inflection point: it appears that Bernanke has finally succeeded at offsetting the drop in the shadow banking system. Up until now the one and only defense that those who anticipate continued asset price declines was that on a net basis, the monetary system was still contracting. That is now no longer the case. And now, ironically, all that remains is for a very much cornered Ben Bernanke to convince people that the economy is getting better, resulting in a surge in net borrowings, and a spike in monetary velocity, and... hello Weimar. But don't shoot the messneger: here are the facts. Evidence A: total shadow banking system liabilities:
Evidence B: sequential change in actual components to shadow liabilities:
Evidence C: comparison in levels of traditional and shadow bank liabilities.
Evidence D: Overlay of M2 and Shadown Liabilities
Evidence E: most importantly, the sequential change in the combined liabilites represented by both the shadow and traditional banking system. As the arrow indicates, it is now positive to the tune of $3.8 billion: this is probably the most important fact for monetary policy in the past two years.
Of course, all of this is possible only because the state is now the ultimate backstopper of all risk. And now that the monetary inflection point has been reached, and the negative convexity event has passed, we expect that the debasement of the US currency will now start in earnest.
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| Return Of The Christmas Grinch Posted: 11 Dec 2010 08:13 AM PST www.preciousmetalstockreview.com December 11, 2010 The week past was absolutely perfect for US markets in general as they consolidated the huge gains from the week before. The S&P traded in a narrow range at an important horizontal level and is resting. My thinking and analysis tells me we are ready for another large move higher into the end of the year. The move will likely begin Monday and myself and subscribers are positioned very well for an up-move soon. Gold and Silver on the other hand corrected, and when they correct, they correct quickly. For ourselves, it was a case of selling first and asking questions later in order to book trading profits, which were very nice. To be clear, I did not sell one single ounce of physical Gold or Silver. There is a very strong bid under the metals right now and we could likely have seen the bottoms already, but if those bids do get pulled we could fall much further in the blink of an...
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| The Curious Case For $936 Ounce Silver Posted: 11 Dec 2010 07:58 AM PST ...
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| Posted: 11 Dec 2010 07:58 AM PST Greetings Jim! Gold closed near unchanged yesterday, holding below recent all-time highs of the secular bull market. Price action has been characterized by volatile swings higher and lower during the past two months as the long-term uptrend has consolidated recent gains of the rally from late July.
Cycle analysis indicates the gold market is attempting to form a short-term low near the $1,380 congestion support area.
On the weekly chart, the intermediate-term cycle has also entered the window during which the latest Intermediate-Term Cycle Low (ITCL) is most likely to develop.
The ITCL may have already occurred on November 19, and a strong move higher during the next few weeks would both confirm that the latest intermediate-term low is in place and forecast substantial gains during the coming months. The positive divergence between the Gold Currency Index (GCI) and gold in US dollar terms remains in place as technical indicators are moderately bullish overall on the GCI weekly chart.
A subsequent close at new all-time highs on the GCI weekly chart during the next few weeks would reconfirm the secular uptrend and predict additional gains during early 2011. Best,
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| Don't Keep Silver with ANY Banks! Posted: 11 Dec 2010 07:52 AM PST (Or Brokerages, not just JP Morgan!) Silver Stock Report by Jason Hommel, December 10th, 2010 Not even the Swiss banks are safe! Dec. 7, 2010, 5:49 AM Jim Rickards: At Least One Swiss Bank Has Started Refusing To Hand Over Physical Gold To Clients http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rickards-take-gold-out-of-the-bank-2010-12 Jim Rickards of Omnis has an interesting anecdote about global gold mania. He tells King World News of a client of a major Swiss bank who was refused access to his one ton of physical gold ($40M) and was forced to make threats to convince the bank otherwise: “Correct, and through all of that eventually the individual did get his gold -- it took lawyers, it took threats of publicity, it took a lot of pressure to do that, which my inference is that that gold was not there. The bank had to scramble, go out and find it somewhere before they could make good delivery.” To be safe, Rickards says you should take out...
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| Posted: 11 Dec 2010 07:36 AM PST Each week, our investment team looks to provide Investor Alert and Advisor Alert subscribers with a special window into a key event, development or trend we’ve spotted in global markets. We also update Frank Holmes’ blog “Frank Talk” several times a week with similar observations from portfolio managers on the road to insight from other market voices we follow are saying about the markets. This week we thought we’d take a moment to reflect on the eventful year it’s been for gold, natural resources and commodities by highlighting this year’s most popular commentaries and Frank Talk blog entries. 1) What Gold Bubble? (April 22, 2010) As gold reached record highs earlier this year, the groundswell of television, radio and online ads led many to proclaim a gold price bubble. We disagreed and explained gold still had room to run. Read the article. 2) Why More Investors Like Gold (May 17, 2010) In this commentary, we explain the ...
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| Stephen Taylor: Grassroots Investor Posted: 11 Dec 2010 07:30 AM PST Source: Brian Sylvester of The Gold Report 12/10/2010 It's all about who you know. Stephen Taylor, fund manager of Chicago-based Taylor International Fund, Ltd., has cultivated a grassroots network of contacts from Canada to China since working as a trader in the '80s. It's that network that has produced some of his fund's biggest winners. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Taylor talks about his fund's bet on vanadium and why he doesn't own any Chinese mining companies. The Gold Report: Stephen, could you please give us an overview of your fund and how you manage it? Stephen Taylor: This fund is designed to focus on profitable niches wherever they may exist. Currently, we favor small-cap companies and emerging markets. We have a very broad investor mandate: our goal is to deliver absolute performance. Our investor base is a pretty sophisticated group that I met in the Chicago trading community when I worked as a floor trader in the late '80s and earl...
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| Posted: 11 Dec 2010 07:27 AM PST A lesson from Jesse Livermore's Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: " There I was, short five thousand shares of UP (Union Pacific). on a hunch. That was a much as I sell in Harding's office with the margin I had up. It was too much stock for me to be short of, on vacation; so I gave up the action and returned to New York that very night. There was no telling what might happen and I thought I'd better be Johnny-on-the-stop… The next day we got news of the San Francisco earthquake. It was an awful disaster. But the market opened down only a couple of points… I was short five thousand shares. The blow had fallen, but my stock hadn't… He told me: "That was some hunch, kid. But, say, when the talent and the money are all on the bull side what's the use of bucking against them? They are bound to win out." "Give'em time," I said. I wouldn't cover because I knew the damage was enormous and the Union Pacific would be one of the worst suffers. But it was exasperating to see the blindness of the Street… I wasn't not betting blindly. I wasn't a crazy bear. I wasn't drunk with success or thinking that because Frisco was pretty well wiped off the map of the entire country was headed for the scrap heap. No, Indeed. They'll tell you that it was because the first dispatches were not so alarming, but I think it was because it took so long to change the point of view of the public towards the securities market. Even the professional traders for the most part were slow and shortsighted." Livermore's essential message of "Be Right and Sit Tight" as described by the impact San Francisco's Great 1906 earthquake had on his short position in Union Pacific draws a close comparison to that of the Great failure of the OTC derivative market in 2008 and the price of gold. For gold holders, it is exasperating to see the blindness of the Street as the damage incurred. Foreign debt held by foreigners and international investors as a percentage of GDP (national income), shown below, has climbed above 28%. The magnitude and acceleration of this trend is both staggering and dangerous. The Street, nevertheless, following historical precedence remains largely blind to the message contained within the trends. While professional traders for the most part are slow and shortsighted, history suggests that they will react swiftly when blindness transitions to sight. If you thought "Be Right and Sit Tight" is easy, it's a lesson that many will never learn. The equilibrium price of gold continues to rise to unbelievable levels. Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors As a % of GDP (FDHBFINGDPR) and the London P.M. Fixed Price of Gold (GOLD):
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| CFTC to Announce Silver Postion Limits Next Thursday Posted: 11 Dec 2010 07:20 AM PST "JPMorgan heading for the silver exit door, Bank Participation Report shows. Silver analyst Ted Butler has a few things to say. Important interview with James Turk... and much more. " Yesterday in Gold and Silver Nothing much exciting happened to the gold price on Friday until lunchtime in London... which is 7:00 a.m. in New York. Then the price began to roll over... and got even more help once Comex trading began at 8:20 a.m. Eastern time. The low price of the day [$1,371.30 spot] came around 10:15 a.m. in New York. From that low, the gold price rallied for a couple of hours before trading sideways into the close at 5:15 p.m. The high of the day [such as it was] came at the London a.m. gold fix at 10:30 a.m. local time... 5:30 a.m. Eastern. The silver price began to slide much earlier in the day... around 2:30 p.m. Hong Kong time. The low [$28.01 spot] was, of course, at the same time as gold's low in New York, with silver's subsequent rally lasting ...
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| Posted: 11 Dec 2010 05:39 AM PST
After we reported a week ago that JPMorgan was trying to corner the copper market, many noted this was not surprising, considering the bank's comparable approach in manipulating various other precious metal markets. Naturally, we extrapolated that the main reason why the CFTC continues to refuse to delay implementation of position limits is precisely due to the JP Morgan's need to control commodity pricing precisely due to such manipulative trading practices: "As for the CFTC, we now know why they are so intent on delaying the size limit discussion: after all, any regulation will be forward looking - better let JPM accumulate all commodities it can and distribute these via hidden channels to affiliated subs before the ever so busy Gary Gensler corrupt cronies decide to raise their finger on what is increasingly an ever more blatant market manipulation scheme. At least in this case, JPM will push the price higher unlike what it is doing courtesy of its gold and silver manipulation. However, the PM market (especially Asian accounts) will soon make sure Blythe Masters is looking for a job within 3 months as we predicted a few weeks ago." The only problem with this story is that so far, is that unlike copper, JP Morgan's now legendary paper short in the silver market, long taken for granted by the "less than in mainstream" community, has been persistently ignored by the broader media due to the a lack of concrete evidence. Hopefully that will now change: courtesy of a speech delivered by none other than the CFTC commissioner Bart Chilton, who continues to expose the CFTC and the banker cartel's illegal market manipulation practices, we now have proof that "one trader held over 40 percent of the silver market." As this trader is either JP Morgan directly, or various Blythe Masters proxies, we can only hope that finally the broader outcry against JPM's ongoing attempt to suppress precious metal prices (insert Mike Krieger/Max Keiser "Crush JP Morgan" campaign here) will force the bank to finally unwind its shorts. And if not, perhaps the market speculators will do it for them: as of Friday, the SLV ETF held an absolute record 10,941 tonnes of silver, an increase of 163 tonnes for the week. What is even more amusing is that the Bart Chilton disclosure came during a speech blasting that other manipulative scourge of the market: High Frequency Trading (it is helpful that over a year after Zero Hedge first recognized HFT as the biggest threat to market stability, subsequently confirmed by the flash crash, now the very CFTC is finally confirming we have been right all along). In an ideal world, there would be an overhaul to both position limit and HFT trading rules. Alas, we live in a world, in which the son of the heretofore biggest known ponzi, Bernie Madoff, has decided to take his own life on the two year anniversary of his father's ignominious collapse. Surely, should the regulators confirm that our own markets are nothing but a massive ponzi, the suicides will be far more pervasive, as all those who "trade the tape" realize they have been following the crowd right over the cliff. First, here is a snapshot of (alleged) silver holdings in the SLV ETF, which many believe is a direct and indirect attempt by Asian banks to force a massive short covering capitulation by JP Morgan.
And here is the full December 8 speech by Bart Chilton. Relevant sections have been highlighted (h/t Bill Murhpy and LeMetropole). “Speed”Speech by Commissioner Bart Chilton before the High Frequency Trading World USA 2010 Conference, New YorkDecember 8, 2010 Introduction Good morning and thanks to Terrapinn, and especially Matt Bednarsky, for the kind invitation to speak with you today. Today, I’m going to spend a few minutes talking about speed. That is, speed not only with regard to computers in trading but also to regulation. Together, we’re all going boldly where no man has gone before. I’ll also share with you a few of my thoughts about the happenings and changes that are occurring in Washington that will impact Wall Street and LaSalle Street and a bunch of people on streets that not many folks have even heard about. Streets With No Name In fact, forget about Wall Street or LaSalle, it really doesn’t matter the name of your street at all. Many High Frequency Trading (HFT) and other financial trading firms don’t even have offices in New York or Chicago, let alone London, Hong Kong or Singapore. If you have a connection, you can trade, and trade they do. A recent report says HFT firms account for about 50 percent of European markets. Our CFTC economists say high frequency traders (HFTs) account for roughly a third of all trading volume on regulated U.S. futures exchanges. HFT companies don’t even need traditional traders on staff. The types of professionals represented in today’s HFT firms might be more suited for the deck of the starship Enterprise than a traditional trading firm. These are mathematicians, programmers and physicists. Moreover, with the advent of Star Trek-like “gee whiz” HFT technology, we are witnessing one of the most game-changing and tumultuous shifts we’ve ever seen in financial markets. Is it being done correctly? Are there new rules or regulations that should be in place? If so, who, what and how should it all be done? Those are some of the questions being asked. Many of you may recall from your television education that the Enterprise and other starships of the 24th century travelled at faster than light warp speeds using dilithium crystals for power. Today’s HFT firms are travelling at the same superfast speeds in their bold quest to seek out new life and new civilizations. Scratch that: in their quest to scoop up market micro-dollars in nanoseconds. That makes this an exciting time and an exhilarating environment in which to live. Wall Street Reform There are, however, many other fascinating changes taking place in markets and in our economy. That makes this all not only an exhilarating, but also a challenging time. Given the economic meltdown, which we saw in full force beginning in 2008, Congress saw the need to re-write financial laws. In July, Congress passed and the President signed the most sweeping financial reform bill in history: the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Dark to Light OTC Markets If there is one chief concept behind the new law, it is transparency. In the futures world, the major change will be bringing light and regulatory oversight to the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market. As you know, OTC markets are where those annoying credit default swaps traded. To give you an idea of how this increases the regulatory universe, the currently CFTC-regulated exchanges account for roughly $5 trillion in annualized trading. The OTC market is roughly $600 trillion. We are going boldly where no regulator has gone before. To say the least, we have our work cut out for us. Speculation and Position Limits In addition to OTC markets, there is another key provision of real significance required by the new law. In the run-up to 2008, we saw an enormous shift in speculative money coming into futures markets. Over a several year period, roughly $200 billion in speculative money came into these markets. Crude oil reached $147.27 a barrel; gasoline topped $4 a gallon. Wheat, which trades at roughly $8 a bushel these days, was trading at $24. It went on and on, and then it all crashed. I’m not suggesting a direct correlation between the inflow of speculative money or positions and the price volatility, by any means. Many of us learned, however, that while there may not be such a thing as too much speculative money, that same money might be too concentrated. We saw very large concentrations of trader positions in 2008. That has continued. Since then, we saw one trader hold more than 20 percent of the crude oil market. Even earlier this year, one trader held over 40 percent of the silver market. While I’m not suggesting speculators drove prices in 2008 or today, I know they had an impact then and believe they are having some impact today. You don’t have to take it from me though. Economists at Oxford, Princeton and Rice universities all document that speculators have had an impact on prices. Congress got it, and that is why the new law requires mandatory speculative position limits—to ensure that too much concentration doesn’t exist. Crude and Gas News stories on front pages in recent days report the nearly 10-cent surge in gasoline prices as a result of increased crude oil futures (by the market close last Friday, the NYMEX price had risen nearly $7 to $89.19 in the past two weeks). The same articles point out that crude futures are somewhat delinked from supply and demand. With strong supply and relatively weak demand, one energy economist said, “There is nothing a normal person would look at and come up with what’s happened.” Maybe we need to look again at the experts. An April 2010 MIT study said that “. . . speculation may temporarily push crude oil prices above the level justified by physical-market fundamentals . . . .” New Speculation Data One might ask if there are as many speculative positions today as there were in 2008. If folks thought speculative levels were high then, data I’m discussing for the first time today reveal an even greater level. Speculative money from the likes of hedge funds, index funds and pension funds is coming into the commodity markets at a blistering pace. There are more of these speculative positions now than at any time. To provide a more granular data look, between June of 2008 and October of 2010, futures equivalent contracts held by these types of speculators increased 47 percent in energy contracts, 20 percent in metals and 18 percent in agricultural commodities. More than $149 billion in speculative money in commodities markets represents more futures contracts than at any previous time. (Note: While the dollar amount of speculative money was slightly higher in 2008 at $162 billion, the actual number of futures positions held by these speculators was less due to the high cost of commodity contracts). Not Bad Guys Now, there is nothing whatsoever wrong with those speculators being in markets. Bless them. We need speculators. Without them, there is no market, full stop. The sheer size, however, of concentrated speculative interests has the potential of moving markets, of influencing true price discovery. That can make life difficult for the hedgers who use markets to manage commercial business risks, and for consumers who rely upon them to fairly price just about everything they purchase. Everything from a loaf of bread to a gallon of milk or gas to a home mortgage is impacted by these markets. So, where does that leave us? Implementation When Congress passed the new reform bill this past July, it determined mandatory speculative position limits were required. Of the more than 40 rules that the CFTC is required to promulgate, most are required to be completed by next July. Only a few have shorter deadlines. Mandatory position limits are in that small group and are required to be implemented by mid-January for energy and metals contracts. You may have read news stories recently where some say we can’t make that deadline, shouldn’t make that deadline, need to hold off until we get more data or better data so that the levels can be calculated with exact specificity. In an idyllic world, that might be fine. Congress, however, gave the agency the earlier implementation date for a reason—so that we put limits in place now, not some later time of our choosing. Additionally, the law provides no such authority for regulators to delay the imposition of these limits. There is no regulatory escape valve. That hasn’t, however, slowed some folks down. There are creative suggestions for ways around the implementation requirement. Some proffered that the agency formally approve a final rule and consider that step as “implementation” under the law. At the same time, the rule would not make the limits effective until sometime in the future. They essentially propose the agency implement a rule on time without implementing it on time—without making it effective. If that sounds convoluted, it is. That sort of dancing on the head of a legal pin is exactly the variety of Washington-speak that makes folks in our country furious. I’d also bet that those in Congress who wrote the provision would have an opinion on the matter. When President Obama signed the new law, he said the reforms “represent the strongest consumer financial protections in history.” The mandatory position limits provision is one of those consumer protections. The CFTC has an obligation to do what Congress and the President instructed us to do . . . and on time. Speed So, how might the new law have an effect on high frequency trading? Does anyone remember the movie Speed? It is about 15 years old but still popular after all that time. Sandra Bullock plays a passenger on a bus wired with a bomb. She is told the bomb will trigger if the bus slows down to 50 miles-per-hour. She winds up having to drive the bus and negotiate curves, off-ramps and traffic, all at a speed over 50 miles-per-hour. Well, as I said, HFT is taking place at warp speed. It is not ever going to slow down to 50 miles-per-hour. Is warp speed okay? Are there any negatives? Does that speed help markets? At the very least, as regulators, we need to keep up with what is going on. Computer technology in trading is great for many reasons, not just for the “gee whiz” things mentioned earlier, but because it can increase liquidity in markets. It adds access that we've never seen, and for auditors, exchanges and regulators, it's great because electronic data trails exist instead of trying to piece together pieces of papers from trading rooms. So, there are many good things about computer trading, but we also have to think about the myriad ramifications of technology. Flash Crash One such ramification gave us a wake-up call on May 6th. Financial markets came unwound that afternoon. You’ve heard the horror stories. Stock in Accenture, for example, went from $40.13 to just a penny before recovering. The Dow lost nearly 1,000 points, and then recovered more than two thirds of it by the close of trading. If the crash had occurred earlier that day, when European markets were still open, the entire financial world would’ve been rocked. The report issued October 1st by the staffs of the CFTC and the SEC tells us what happened. It doesn't point fingers at a single culprit like some people think. It describes markets that were already jittery due to economic news coming out of Europe. Volatility was double normal levels, but liquidity was light. Sellers couldn’t find buyers. Then when one firm utilized a trading program—not HFT, but an algorithmic robot—to sell what would usually be a pretty ordinary set of 75,000 S&P E-Mini futures contracts valued at over $4 billion, the markets went off a cliff. HFT arbitrageurs and others, seeing that market plummet, recognized an opportunity to buy low at one exchange and sell corresponding contracts at a higher price elsewhere. That is one of the reasons we saw the cascading effect within commodity and securities markets. The good news is that markets recovered much of the loss. It’s also good news that regulators and exchanges are instituting procedures to make markets more effective and less susceptible to disruption. It may surprise some, but mini flash crashes occur all too often. They don’t cause as much of a disruption as that of May 6, but more than once this year in futures markets and several times in individual stocks, runaway robotic programs have disrupted markets. By that I mean, they cost people money. In February, for example, one company lost a million dollars in the oil market in less than a second. That company lost its own money but sometimes whole markets are affected and many innocent people are hurt. Police Department Things can happen so fast that, all too often, regulators are like the fire department that comes in and cleans up the charred remains. In practice, we need to be more like the police department trying to keep these disasters from happening in the first place. As you know, these HFT programs and computers are not static. They are intuitive. They can track market moves and make adjustments accordingly. They are extremely sensitive. They play off one another and react at nanosecond speeds. For regulators to keep up, we have to somewhat get in the mind of the mainframe. We have to be nimble and quick because even if we get a better handle on how to regulate this breakneck speed trading, the methods, the machines and the markets will continue to change. TAC At the first meeting of CFTC’s Technology Advisory Committee (TAC) in July, some firms provided evidence that elements of the Flash Crash may have been caused by so many orders going into the order book so fast that the market couldn't respond. One member of the committee called it “algorithmic terrorism.” I call it algo price piracy, where one algorithm “invades” another. It doesn’t appear that happened May 6, but I’m sure it can. Some of our committee members who are knowledgeable about this think it does. It may be innocent or it may not be, but it points out how regulators need the speed to keep up with an ever-faster set of markets. HFT Limits Given our experience with the Flash Crash and mini flash crashes, it is appropriate to consider if there should be limits on high frequency trading. For example, we were talking about position limits earlier. Say we allow 10 percent of open interest in a market. Should high frequency traders be allowed to trade 10 percent, repeatedly, in a very short time period? We certainly should not allow some situations to exist. What about five HFTs, each trading 10 percent of the market in ten minutes, in concert, and it moves a market? Is that okay? Purpose of Markets That issue, however, raises the broader question about this type of trading in general. Don’t get me wrong, HFT trading is part of our trading today but should it remain the same? Is this type of trading outside of—or is it even inimical to—the fundamental purposes of capital formation and risk management in these markets? Many commercial firms trying to hedge their risks complain about the inability to get into the markets as they have in the past due to sheer number and speed of HFTs. I understand there are arguments on both sides, but if we lose the commercials, we won’t have the types of markets we need to ensure price discovery and appropriate risk management. Unstoppable and Accountability Another way to address some of these potential circumstances is to impose legal responsibility on high frequency and algo robot trading that roils markets. I saw Denzel Washington in the movie Unstoppable over the weekend. He was great, as usual. As this runaway train travelled at high speeds across Pennsylvania, I thought about accountability. The train company was constantly calculating the costs of what action to take. Do they try to derail the train in a remote area where an accident will cost them less money? Should they try to stop it by putting people on the train and risk lives? It struck me that the reason the company thought about those things was that there are laws that will hold them accountable. Shouldn’t we do the same for algo robots and HFTs? Those who instigate runaway high frequency or algo robot trades should be held accountable when they hurt other market participants or injure consumers. One way to address the matter is to include such a provision in our new anti-disruptive trading practices authority. We should prohibit certa
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| CLSA's Complete 2011 China Outlook Posted: 11 Dec 2010 04:03 AM PST
After a few days ago we released the "definitive" factual presentation on China courtesy of HSBC, today we look at the future of the only country that matters (and which according to Goldman was the only saving grace for America, decoupling and what not, before the firm went full propaganda retard) with CLSA's complete (124 pages) and historically very authoritative 2011 outlook on China. While not a departure from conventional wisdom in any way, all those who wish to follow trends and be part of the lemming herd for as long as possible, are advised to read the report: it will certainly permit the collection of a few pennies before the rollercoaster shows up. And when that happens, everyone will naturally quickly and quietly pocket their profits and head for exits in a cool, calm and collected manner. Because, after all, what else can you do when "trading the tape" aka being a momentum trader, is all that works... Choice selection:
Full report:
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| High Long Bond Yields Are Good News for Gold Holders Posted: 11 Dec 2010 04:01 AM PST The Financial Times brought up the interesting point that because bond prices are so insanely high (making bond yields so preposterously low), a one-percent change in yields would negatively impact the prices of bonds much more than a one-percent change if bond yields were higher, which I assume means in the normal 3-6% range.
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| European Monetary System Crisis, Euro Zone on the Edge of Collapse Posted: 11 Dec 2010 03:59 AM PST Believe it or not the euro zone and European Union crisis is still in the formative stages. The bailout packages arranged for Greece and Ireland are not to bail out those two countries, but to bail out the European banks that lent to them and bought their bonds when it was imprudent to do so. They knew, because they control the governments that the public of the solvent governments would bail them out. Thus, the governments of Ireland and Greece with Portugal and Spain to follow will be showered with an Anglo-American style bailout.
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| Stocks Risking Taking, Bonds Take a Beating and Gold Volatility Posted: 11 Dec 2010 03:40 AM PST A&P May File for Bankruptcy as Soon as Weekend After 151 Years in Business (Bloomberg) Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co., the once-dominant grocery-store chain founded in 1859, may file for bankruptcy in the coming days to restructure debt, two people with knowledge of the matter said. A filing to reorganize under court protection may come as soon as this weekend, said the people, who declined to be identified because the matter is private. A&P hired law firm Kirkland & Ellis LLP to represent it in negotiations with creditors and in any Chapter 11 proceeding, the people said.
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| Weekly Chartporn, And Why Goldman's Clients Are Not Too Happy With The Firm's Forecast Posted: 11 Dec 2010 03:37 AM PST
In addition to his traditional weekly chartporn, Goldman's recently promoted partner David Kostin, who recently has spearheaded the firm's push to new estimate heights (1,450 S&P by December 2011... but why stop there?) provides the strawman opposing views that "clients" have interjected to the sudden and so very anticlimactic shift in the firm's formerly bearish stance. Among these: i) lack of improvement in the labor market would mean limited GDP growth which would constrain top-line sales growth, and as a consequence EPS would probably not reach a new high and the P/E ratio would be unlikely to expand; ii) companies would soon hire more workers and therefore profit margins were at risk of contracting – rather than expanding as we forecast – and thus negative EPS revisions represented a material risk; iii) Contagion from the European sovereign debt problems will lead to a rise in the US Dollar and reduce the translational EPS impact of non-US sales; iv) A view that the 70 bp backup in ten-year Treasury note yields to 3.23% (from 2.63% just one month ago) will slow re-allocation of assets from bonds to stocks. To which Kostin has one response: "Unexpected political developments during the past week only further support our bullish forecast. One might argue that our price target is too low, rather than too high!" It is amazing how much fiscal and monetary Koolaid millions of dollars in bonuses can buy. Incidentally, while we know that Goldman runs US monetary policy courtesy of having Bill Dudley run the New York Fed, it appears that the firm now is also in control of US Fiscal policy, as virtually every suggestion that Hatzius and company have "floated" has been adopted by Obama. Which makes sense: after all Obama's economic team is now down to one person - the president needs to get his fiscal advice from somewhere, and why not make it the bank that runs the world. We will provide more color on the former shortly. In the meantime, enjoy Goldman's latest propaganda.
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| Gold Forecaster - Why Does Gold Fall When the Dollar Rises? Posted: 11 Dec 2010 02:58 AM PST We are all used to reading that gold rose because the dollar fell or that gold fell, because the dollar rose. The picture conjured up is one of traders racing in to actually buy or sell gold as they watch the exchange rate move. Read More...
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| Posted: 11 Dec 2010 02:10 AM PST
The five-year TIPS closed at +.14% on Friday. I got a laugh out of that price. The low yield a few months ago was -52 basis points, meaning people paid big time just to own it. To those that did buy the negative yield I say, “Suckers!” The yield on the TIPS has backed up by 66 bp in just a few months. In bond land that is a very big deal. It will wipe out a few years of income. 
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| Celente: American Empire is Collapsing Posted: 11 Dec 2010 01:33 AM PST Trends forecaster Gerald Celente joins RT to discuss unemployment with college grads, the wide income gap between the rich and the poor in the US, and the coming bust of the American Empire. "You have millions of college grads that haven't entered the workforce yet that haven't been able to get jobs out of college and they have degrees in worthlessness, and they're $25,000 on average in debt."Celente predicts the collapse to come in US cities will rival what's going on in Ireland right now and what's going to happen in Portugal. "The American Empire is unfolding and collapsing in front of everyone's eyes," he says. Celente's solution include bringing production jobs back to the US, shutting down military bases around the world, ending the wars, and cutting massive overseas spending. 
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| Posted: 11 Dec 2010 12:59 AM PST SilverKeiser.net Share this:
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| Fight financial terrorism, buy Silver Posted: 11 Dec 2010 12:48 AM PST Share this:
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| Gold Mania Still Ahead, TSX-V Chart Speaks Volumes Posted: 10 Dec 2010 10:10 PM PST by Andrey Dashkov, Casey’s International Speculator : With the gold price hitting nominal highs last month, there is a lot of “mania” and “bubble” ranting going on in the gold community. Should we start selling? A bull market typically progresses through 3 phases: the Stealth Phase, in which early adopters start buying; the Wall of Worry Phase (or Awareness Phase), when institutions begin buying and every significant fluctuation makes investors worry that the bull market is over; and the Mania Phase when the general public piles on, driving prices beyond reason or sustainability.
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| Grassroots Investor Betting on Vanadium Posted: 10 Dec 2010 10:06 PM PST It's all about who you know. Stephen Taylor, fund manager of Chicago-based Taylor International Fund, Ltd., has cultivated a grassroots network of contacts from Canada to China since working as a trader in the '80s. It's that network that has produced some of his fund's biggest winners. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Taylor talks about his fund's bet on vanadium and why he doesn't own any Chinese mining companies. The Gold Report: Stephen, could you please give us an overview of your fund and how you manage it?
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| Opposite Trend Paths Forecast For Crude Oil and Gold Posted: 10 Dec 2010 09:50 PM PST This coming weekend’s OPEC meeting is perhaps the quietest of all OPEC meetings we’ve come to know of since we have been trading energy. Absolutely nothing is expected of this meeting and the street too has then no guesstimate wars and everything seems to be rather calm. Few of the members have voiced their opinion that they feel Crude is under speculative control and therefore even if Crude’s price traded $100 per barrel they would not step up to increase the production as no fundamental change has taken place or rightly unless there is no fundamental change. Seems fair enough and we too agree with it.
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| Gold Current Decline is a Correction, Opportunity to Add to Gold and Silver Investments Posted: 10 Dec 2010 09:42 PM PST We picked up the Asian addition of The Wall Street Journal this week and on the back page was an article titled “China reveals Huge Appetite for Gold.” The article states: Gold’s record rally has been attributed to everything from worries about inflation, the dollar and the emergence of exchange-traded funds. One big factor many may have missed: huge buying from China. We haven't missed it. We have been writing about the rising Chinese demand for gold in many previous updates.
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