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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


[Video & Text] California Will Default On Its Debt, Says Chris Whalen

Posted: 18 Nov 2010 01:21 AM PST

Nowhere has this collapse been more visible than California, which faces a massive $25 billion shortfall and red ink for as far as the eye can see. After years in which every looming financial crisis has been met with a government bailout, you might think that the same solution awaits California, as well as all the other states that have huge obligations that they can't afford to meet.


China May Gradually Increase Gold Reserve Holdings

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 11:53 PM PST

"People have always been speculating about China's gold reserves, but I think there is not much point in second-guessing whether the government is going to buy gold," Ronald Wang, general manager for greater China at the World Gold Council, said by phone from Beijing today. "They have access to information and they must have a plan with regard to gold."


GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Andy Shectman & Chris Waltzek

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 07:00 PM PST

GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Andy Shectman & Chris Waltzek


Black Swans Yellow Gold

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 06:08 PM PST

A few years ago I did an appraisal for a client who was pledging his gold as collateral in a commercial real estate transaction. In the course of doing the appraisal, I was struck with the large gain in value. His original purchase in 2002 was in the seven figures when gold was still trading in the $300 range. His holdings had appreciated 50% after a roughly three-year holding period. (Since that appraisal, the value has risen another three times.) I asked his permission tell his story at our website as an example how gold can further one's business plans.


Yukon Fever: Today’s Hottest Area Play

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 06:05 PM PST

Building on the spectacular early takeover of Underworld Resources by gold major Kinross this June, recent discoveries in the Yukon Territory have made this large region of frozen tundra the hottest area play in the junior resource sector today.


India and China Continue to Drive Gold Demand

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 06:04 PM PST

The World Gold Council's (WGC) latest quarterly recap shows global gold demand is getting stronger despite rising gold prices. Gold rose 28 percent to record the highest average price for a quarter ever at $1,226.75 an ounce while gold demand jumped 12 percent on a year-over-year basis to 921.8 tons during the quarter.


Buying Gold for Buoyancy as US the Credit Rating Sinks

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 06:02 PM PST

Alvaro Vargas Llosa is quoted in The Independent Institute's newsletter, The Lighthouse, as saying that the new "$600 billion in 6 months" QE2 program (and $900 billion with re-investments) of the evil Federal Reserve is, "The biggest load of stinking monetary policy crap in the history of the United States, and we should all follow the lead of the Incredible Mogambo Guru (IMG) and buy gold, silver and oil in those few, rare moments...


Crude Oil Wipes Out November Rally Despite Plunge in Inventories, Gold Falls for a Fo

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 05:52 PM PST

courtesy of DailyFX.com November 17, 2010 10:51 PM Another bullish inventory report couldn’t stop in the bleeding in crude oil, but prices are near technical support. Meanwhile, gold fell for a fourth day but is rebounding in overnight trade. Commodities – Energy Crude Oil Wipes Out November Rally Despite Plunge in Inventories Crude Oil (WTI) - $80.91 // $0.47 // 0.58% Commentary: Crude oil fell for a fourth day in a row despite a steep drop in U.S. crude oil inventories. The move in crude was interesting considering that U.S. equity markets were virtually flat the entire day. Crude was down between $0.50 and $1.00 before the inventory report, proceeded to rally up to unchanged after the numbers, and then sold off for the rest of the day to end down $1.90, or 2.31%, to $80.44. Crude has virtually wiped out this month’s entire run. We can only speculate as to why crude underperformed to such a degree on Wednesday. OPEC could be keeping a lid ...


Could The Financial Crisis Erupting In Ireland, Portugal, Greece And Spain Lead To The End Of The Euro And The Break Up Of The European Union?

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 05:47 PM PST


Could The Financial Crisis Erupting In Ireland, Portugal, Greece And Spain Lead To The End Of The Euro And The Break Up Of The European Union?

Courtesy of Michael Snyder at Economic Collapse 

The Irish banking system is melting down right in front of our eyes.  Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Spain are all drowning in debt.  It is becoming extremely expensive for all of those nations to issue new debt.  Officials all over Europe are begging Ireland to accept a bailout.  Portugal has already indicated that they will probably be next in line.  Most economists are now acknowledging that without a new round of bailouts the dominoes could start to fall and we could see a wave of debt defaults by European governments.  All of this is pushing the monetary union in Europe to its limits.  In fact, some of Europe's top politicians are now publicly warning that this crisis may not only mean the end of the euro, but also the end of the European Union itself.

Yes, things really are that serious in Europe right now.  In order for the euro and the European Union to hold together, two things have got to happen.  Number one, Germany and the other European nations that are in good financial condition have got to agree to keep bailing out nations such as Ireland, Portugal and Greece that are complete economic basket cases.  Number two, the European nations receiving these bailouts have got to convince their citizens to comply with the very harsh austerity measures being imposed upon them by the EU and the IMF.

Those two things should not be taken for granted.  In Germany, many taxpayers are already sick and tired of pouring hundreds of billions of euros into a black hole.  The truth is that the Germans are not going to accept carrying weak sisters like Greece and Portugal on their backs indefinitely.

In addition, we have already seen the kinds of riots that have erupted in Greece over the austerity measures being implemented there.  If there is an overwhelming backlash against austerity in some parts of Europe will some nations actually attempt to leave the EU?

Right now the focus is on Ireland.  The Irish banking system is a basket case at the moment and the Irish government is drowning in red ink.  European Union officials are urging Ireland to request a bailout, but so far Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen is not taking the bait.  The Irish government does not seem too keen on having even more austerity measures imposed upon it by the EU and the IMF.

According to Nadeem Walayat, the harsh austerity measures that Ireland has endured during this past year have only made Ireland's financial problems even worse....

The people of Ireland having endured over a year of austerity on the promise that it was all necessary to suffer pain today by cutting public spending so as to reduce the annual budget deficit to sustainable level for economic gains tomorrow. Instead the exact opposite is taking place as the Irish economy contracts due to economic austerity whilst its bankrupt banks are sending the countries debt and liabilities soaring, thus resulting in a far worse budgetary position than where Ireland was before the austerity measures were implemented as the bond markets are waking up to evitable debt default which is sending interest rates demanded to hold Irish debt soaring to new credit crisis highs.

But the big Irish banks are bleeding cash fast.  For example, the Bank of Ireland recently reported "a 10 billion euro outflow of deposits from early August until the end of September."  Irish banks and the Irish government need help whether they are willing to admit it or not.

But Ireland is not the only one in trouble.  Portugal became the latest European nation to push the panic button when Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos announced that his country was in such bad financial shape that it might have to seek a bailout package.

Things are so bleak in Portugal right now that Foreign Affairs Minister Luis Amado says that his nation "faces a scenario of exit from the euro zone" if a solution is not found for this financial mess.

On top of all this, word is coming out that Greece is in even worse financial condition than initially believed.  The statistics agency for the EU, Eurostat, revealed on Tuesday that Greece's deficit for 2009 was actually 15.4% of GDP rather than 13.6% of GDP as originally thought.

The Greek national debt is now well over 120 percent of GDP.  It seems inevitable at this point that Greece will need more bailouts if they are to remain part of the EU.

Spain is also starting to feel the heat.  Spain's short-term debt financing costs jumped sharply on Tuesday, and officials in Spain are begging the Irish government to accept the bailout they are being offered so that the "contagion" does not spread.

But could a few mid-size countries in Europe really cause the next great global financial crisis?

Yes.

In the UK, veteran Conservative MP Peter Tapsell is warning that a total collapse in Ireland "could pose as great a threat to the world economy as did Lehman Brothers, AIG and Goldman Sachs in September 2008".

Already we are seeing world financial markets getting rattled by all this news.

Fears regarding what is happening in Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal helped push the Dow Jones industrial average down nearly 200 points on Tuesday.

But the real story is that this financial crisis in Europe could potentially cause the break up of the euro and of the European Union.

The truth is that the euro and the European Union are inseparably linked at this point.  In fact, EU President Herman Van Rompuy is warning that if some of the weaker countries in Europe are forced to abandon the euro it will likely cause the total destruction of the European Union....

"We’re in a survival crisis. We all have to work together in order to survive with the euro zone, because if we don’t survive with the euro zone we will not survive with the European Union."

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is also warning that a failure of the euro could bring down the entire European Union....

"If the euro fails, then Europe fails."

euroBut officials in Europe are not going to let the dream of a united Europe slip away easily.  Right now they are working really hard to keep Europe together, and that means some "tough love" has to be imposed on the "weak sisters".  As these weaker European economies collapse, they are being forced to accept harsh EU mandates in exchange for bailouts.  As Ambrose Evans Pritchard recently pointed out, "forced austerity" is quite similar to serfdom....

Greece is now under an EU protectorate, or the “Memorandum” as they call it. This has prompted pin-prick terrorist attacks against anybody associated with EU rule. Ireland and Portugal are further behind on this road to serfdom, but they are already facing policy dictates from Brussels, but will soon be under formal protectorates as well in any case. Spain has more or less been forced to cut public wages by 5pc to comply with EU demands made in May. All are having to knuckle down to Europe’s agenda of austerity, without the offsetting relief of devaluation and looser monetary policy.

In the end, Europe is going to move in one of two directions.  Either this financial crisis will finally be the thing that breaks up the euro and the European Union, or it will result in a Europe that is ruled even more strongly by EU bureaucrats.

As this crisis unfolds over the next couple of years, the EU is going to try to grab more power and more control.  They are going to ask national governments to give up substantial amounts of power and sovereignty in exchange for bailouts.  So far it is working.

But at some point will one nation say that enough is enough?

Perhaps that one nation could be Ireland.  The citizens of Ireland actually voted "no" on the EU Constitution, but then the EU forced them to vote a second time so that they could "get it right".

Wouldn't it be ironic if it is Ireland that ends up lighting the fuse that breaks up the euro and the European Union?  The Irish are a fiercely independent people, and they have a history of resisting tyranny.

In any event, this is going to be an extremely interesting winter across the EU.  If things go badly, the entire global financial system could be plunged into mayhem.  Let us hope that does not happen. 

****

Second photo courtesy of William Banzai7 (at Zero Hedge)


Another domino ready to fall

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 05:25 PM PST

FGMR - Free Gold Money Report November 17, 2010 – Iceland, Dubai, Greece – and now Ireland? Will the Emerald Isle be the next domino to fall as a consequence of too much debt accumulated during the boom-years? It may be hard to believe, but Ireland is even more bankrupt than Illinois and probably even California. Due to the serial bailouts of its insolvent banking system, the Irish government’s budget deficit is a staggering and clearly unsustainable 32% of the country’s GDP. Bank depositors have already taken flight. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Ireland’s “banks are showing strains” because “a wave of big businesses and other institutions have pulled deposits out of Irish lenders, preferring to place them with safer-seeming banks in the UK and continental Europe”. As “a wave” of depositors leaves with their money, there is no question that Irish banks are on the brink of collapse,...


Negative Divergences On The Dollar Forecasted Trend Change

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 04:46 PM PST

Last week I warned that the US dollar was reaching three-year lows and to expect a dollar bounce. The dollar has bounced higher as risk aversion has returned with Ireland on the verge of needing a bailout and China raising interest rates to combat rising inflation. There are growing concerns of the Fed needing to raise interest rates ahead of schedule. The previous euphoria in commodities appears to be waning and the technicals are demonstrating the fundamental challenges facing commodities.

There are negative divergences of momentum and price on both the dollar and gold to indicate counter trend reversals may be developing. I have alerted to be 100% defensive since the November 9 high volume reversal. (See Fed Creates Parabolic Move in Gold, Silver)

Understanding momentum gives a trader clues that the trend may be changing ahead of the actual trend breakdown. Divergences in momentum signals the enthusiasm may be receding and the attitude of the crowd is changing.  At the beginning of a new trend there is a lot of excitement, but as the price continues higher demand weakens to the point where a major reversal occurs. Just like when you throw a ball into the air, the initial force wears off until it reverses direction and falls back. This loss of upward or downward momentum is being signaled in both the dollar and gold. Momentum changes trend often ahead of price.

A new low was made in the US dollar after the election and the Federal Reserve's QE2 announcement. However, the momentum didn't confirm the new low made as it made a higher low on the RSI and MACD. This signals that the downtrend may be ending and that may have been an intermediate low.

Negative divergence between momentum and price forecast further weakness for gold. Unexpected by many, the dollar is appearing to be the winner of the QE2 trade. Jesse Livermore said, "The smarter they are the easier the market fools them." At the top in gold and the bottom in the dollar, the smart and easy trade was the wrong trade. Being long the dollar at a time when $900 billion is poured into the market is highly counterintuitive.

The dollar has bounced higher as risk aversion has returned with Ireland on the verge of needing a bailout and China raising interest rates to combat rising inflation. There are growing concerns of the Fed needing to raise interest rates ahead of schedule as Treasury prices have had a bearish reaction. The previous euphoria in commodities appears to be waning and the technicals are demonstrating the fundamental challenges facing commodities as momentum deteriorates.

The dollar broke through its five-month downtrend as investors are concerned of an Ireland bailout and emerging markets raising rates to combat imported inflation. Now we're seeing political opposition to the Fed's last move to pump $900 billion into the economy.

Gold at the time of the QE2 decision was perceived as indestructible as investors worried about a currency devaluation war. As targets were being reached I issued a sell signal and cautioned about getting caught up in the euphoria. I had the four-word famous response, "This Time Is Different." It was at this point in the precious metals rally where the rain clouds began getting dark beginning in late July. As bottoms and tops take time to form, patience is required when issuing a sell or buy signal. A top is now being confirmed as trendlines are being broken.


Guest Post: Yukon Fever - Today’s Hottest Area Play

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 04:24 PM PST


Submitted by Andrey Dashkov, Casey Research

Yukon Fever: Today’s Hottest Area Play

Building on the spectacular early takeover of Underworld Resources by gold major Kinross this June, recent discoveries in the Yukon Territory have made this large region of frozen tundra the hottest area play in the junior resource sector today.

Economy

The Yukon is Canada’s smallest sub-economy, with a GDP of only C$1.4 billion. It may be small, but mining is a traditional and essential part of the Yukon economy, and it’s also its fastest-growing segment: from 2003 to 2008, the mining industry expanded at a 10.5% average annual rate, far exceeding the 3.1% growth of all industries.

A lot of this growth came in 2008 (latest available data), after the successful launch of Capstone Mining’s Minto copper mine, and new discoveries in the area started attracting a lot of investment money to this underexplored but highly prospective region. Mining grew by a whopping 56.3% in that year.

 

Minerals

The Yukon is well endowed with a number of mineral resources, including lead, zinc, silver, gold, tungsten, and copper. As of 2009, it had 84 mineral deposits with established reserves and resources, and 2,700 known mineral occurrences.

Much of this natural wealth, however, is spread across areas with little exploration history. Aware of mining’s economic importance, the Yukon government is offering various financial incentives to continue drawing investment capital and exploration effort to the region. These incentives, combined with a stable business climate, were quite successful in making the Yukon one of the world’s best places to explore.

A survey of metal mining and exploration companies operating around the world, conducted annually by the Fraser Institute, places the Yukon 4th among 51 jurisdictions on its Policy Potential Index (PPI). We have used this mining survey extensively when reviewing other jurisdictions. The chart below shows how the Yukon compares to the rest of Canada:

We wouldn’t have ranked Newfoundland and Labrador above Ontario, but nevertheless, this ranking paints a very positive picture: mining companies can take advantage of the territory’s rich mineral potential with relatively little risk. Some 70 mining companies, as of June 2010, already are.

Since 2005, exploration activities in the Yukon were on a steady uptrend, following the lead of such major mining jurisdictions as Ontario and Quebec, as shown in the next chart. (Exploration seems to be dropping back in BC, but that’s a tale for another day.)

But can we really say that another exploration boom is underway in the Yukon? Yes. Historical data shows that the amount of exploration there has been extremely high in recent years, dwarfing even the pre-Bre-X boom of the mid-1990s, as you can see in the next chart.

Exploration expenditures, the key to unlocking the Yukon’s hidden treasures, slowed to C$90 million in 2009 from C$110 million in 2008 following that year’s infamous market collapse, but 2010 looks to be a turnaround year. Exploration spending is forecast to match the 2007 record of C$140 million.

There are many players in this field, with ATAC Resources (V.ATC) and Kaminak Resources (V.KAM) being among the most notable. The stock charts of both of these companies went nearly vertical last summer. It’s interesting to note that most of current gold production in the Yukon comes from placer mining. In 2009, the ten operating Yukon placer mines produced 54,478 ounces of gold, up 3.4% from 52,709 ounces in 2008. The value of this production was US$42.4 million. The next largest source is Minto, which produced 29,000 ounces of gold in 2009.

So what?

Yukon is not just a “good” or “favorable” jurisdiction – it is one of the world’s best. It has a very stable political climate, with a demonstrably pro-mining government. Other variables, like good roads and energy infrastructure, add to its positive attributes. And the place has a lot of room for exploration. The prospects are wide open.

 


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Mixed

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 04:00 PM PST

Gold fell as much as $7.40 to $1330.90 in Asia before it rose to see a $6.54 gain at $1344.84 in midmorning New York trade, but it then fell back off in the last few hours of trade and ended with a loss of 0.11%. Silver fell to $25.018 and climbed to $25.895 before it also fell back off, but it still ended with a gain of 0.59%.


James Turk: Another domino ready to fall

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 03:51 PM PST

11:45p ET Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder, Free Gold Money Report editor, and GATA consultant James Turk writes tonight that Ireland has become another impossible insolvency for the European Union, in worse shape than California and Illinois. Turk writes: "So barely six months after bailing out Greece with a massive giveaway that placed a burden on the rest of the EU and called into question the fundamental worth of the euro, EU officials are again facing the disintegration on the fringes of the cockamamie empire of Brussels' bureaucrats. Another European domino is ready to fall, and after it topples, a lot more are lined up around the globe, including the biggest debtor of them all -- the U.S. government."

Turk's commentary is headlined "Another Domino Ready to Fall" and you can find it at the FGMR Internet site here:

http://www.fgmr.com/another-domino-ready-to-fall.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan powerplants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php



Michael J. Kosares: Black swans, yellow gold

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 03:42 PM PST

11:37p ET Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In the USAGold / Centennial Precious Metals monthly newsletter, proprietor Michael J. Kosares shows that gold is good for what seems most likely to ail you: deflation, disinflation, runaway stagflation, and hyperinflation. Kosares' analysis is headlined "Black Swans, Yellow Gold" and you can find it at USAGold here:

http://www.usagold.com/amk/newsletter1011sp.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan power plants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php




Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:
http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf


Seth Lipsky: Ron Paul's golden opportunity

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 03:32 PM PST

Who better to host the debate over sound money in Congress than the Fed's most persistent critic?

By Seth Lipsky
The Wall Street Journal
Wednesday, November 17, 2010

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870431250457561849424059316...

One of the most exciting features of the new Congress is the prospect that the chairmanship of a House subcommittee that oversees the Federal Reserve will go to Ron Paul. Final assignments are still being worked out, and the leadership may yet shy away from giving the position to a congressman who doesn't believe the Fed should exist. But Dr. Paul, an obstetrician, has been the ranking Republican of the Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology subcommittee, and tradition suggests he will be the next chairman.

This couldn't come at a more timely moment, though Dr. Paul has been working his way up to the assignment for more than a generation.

I first met the congressman nearly 30 years ago, back when the physician-turned-legislator was emerging on the national scene as a member of the United States Gold Commission. The commission had been formed at the start of the Reagan administration to consider whether America, in the wake of the collapse of Bretton Woods, should move to sound money.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



In the event, the committee recoiled from reform. But Dr. Paul wrote a dissent that made the case for gold and is still being read today.

At the time, the value of the dollar had recently plunged to less than 1/800th of an ounce of gold. The collapse was reversed by the pro-growth policies of President Reagan and by a Fed chairman, in Paul Volcker, of uncommon vision and courage. Momentum for a gold standard was hard to sustain when inflation was being brought down, if not conquered, by other means.

Right now we are experiencing an even more dramatic collapse of the greenback -- this time to little more than 1/1,400th of an ounce of gold -- and the issue has returned with a vengeance. The Fed is reacting to the dollar's collapse with a campaign of quantitative easing. The plan is to cascade hundreds of billions of additional dollars into the economy on the theory that we need inflation. No doubt this kind of thing will, if Dr. Paul accedes to the chairmanship, come in for a good deal more focused oversight than the committee has provided under Democratic leadership.

Heretofore, the subcommittee has "basically been a committee that's dealt with commemorative coins," as Dr. Paul has put it. In a conversation with me on Monday, the congressman said that he intends to get into the question of monetary policy itself. He would start by bringing in to testify to the committee not only the Fed chairman, but some of the leading officers and economists of some of the regional banks in the Federal Reserve system.

More far-reaching still is the prospect that Dr. Paul might use the committee to open up the deepest monetary issues, pressing for audits of America's gold holdings and of the Fed itself. At one point this week, the congressman's book, "End the Fed," ranked No. 2 on Amazon's list of the best-selling business books dealing with money and monetary policy, ahead of volumes by such luminaries of the right and left as Milton Friedman, George Soros and John Maynard Keynes himself.

Most exciting is the prospect that Dr. Paul will be able to bring into the national conversation such figures as, say, Edwin Vieira Jr., the visionary lawyer who has become the sage of the idea of constitutional money. That's a reference to the unit of account to which the Founders were referring when they twice used the word "dollars" in the Constitution, and which they codified in the Coinage Act of 1792 as 371 1/4 grains of pure silver, the same as in a then-ubiquitous coin known as the Spanish Milled Dollar, or its free-market equivalent in gold.

If Dr. Paul does accede to the chairmanship of the monetary subcommittee, he will, in but a few months, gavel it to order on the 40th anniversary of the summer in which President Nixon closed the gold window and brought an end to Bretton Woods. Yet a few weeks ago, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan himself, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations, warned that "fiat money has no place to go but gold." Even the president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, has just called for restoring a role for gold in the monetary system.

The great debate is finally starting up again. Who better to host it in Congress than the diminutive doctor who, more faithfully than anyone else on the Hill, has for more than a generation stood for the idea of sound money?

-----

Mr. Lipsky covered hearings of the United States Gold Commission for the Journal's editorial page. He is the author of, most recently, "The Citizen's Constitution: An Annotated Guide" (Basic Books, 2009).

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan powerplants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php



Seth Lipsky: Ron Paul's golden opportunity

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 03:32 PM PST

Who better to host the debate over sound money in Congress than the Fed's most persistent critic?

By Seth Lipsky
The Wall Street Journal
Wednesday, November 17, 2010

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870431250457561849424059316...

One of the most exciting features of the new Congress is the prospect that the chairmanship of a House subcommittee that oversees the Federal Reserve will go to Ron Paul. Final assignments are still being worked out, and the leadership may yet shy away from giving the position to a congressman who doesn't believe the Fed should exist. But Dr. Paul, an obstetrician, has been the ranking Republican of the Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology subcommittee, and tradition suggests he will be the next chairman.

This couldn't come at a more timely moment, though Dr. Paul has been working his way up to the assignment for more than a generation.

I first met the congressman nearly 30 years ago, back when the physician-turned-legislator was emerging on the national scene as a member of the United States Gold Commission. The commission had been formed at the start of the Reagan administration to consider whether America, in the wake of the collapse of Bretton Woods, should move to sound money.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



In the event, the committee recoiled from reform. But Dr. Paul wrote a dissent that made the case for gold and is still being read today.

At the time, the value of the dollar had recently plunged to less than 1/800th of an ounce of gold. The collapse was reversed by the pro-growth policies of President Reagan and by a Fed chairman, in Paul Volcker, of uncommon vision and courage. Momentum for a gold standard was hard to sustain when inflation was being brought down, if not conquered, by other means.

Right now we are experiencing an even more dramatic collapse of the greenback -- this time to little more than 1/1,400th of an ounce of gold -- and the issue has returned with a vengeance. The Fed is reacting to the dollar's collapse with a campaign of quantitative easing. The plan is to cascade hundreds of billions of additional dollars into the economy on the theory that we need inflation. No doubt this kind of thing will, if Dr. Paul accedes to the chairmanship, come in for a good deal more focused oversight than the committee has provided under Democratic leadership.

Heretofore, the subcommittee has "basically been a committee that's dealt with commemorative coins," as Dr. Paul has put it. In a conversation with me on Monday, the congressman said that he intends to get into the question of monetary policy itself. He would start by bringing in to testify to the committee not only the Fed chairman, but some of the leading officers and economists of some of the regional banks in the Federal Reserve system.

More far-reaching still is the prospect that Dr. Paul might use the committee to open up the deepest monetary issues, pressing for audits of America's gold holdings and of the Fed itself. At one point this week, the congressman's book, "End the Fed," ranked No. 2 on Amazon's list of the best-selling business books dealing with money and monetary policy, ahead of volumes by such luminaries of the right and left as Milton Friedman, George Soros and John Maynard Keynes himself.

Most exciting is the prospect that Dr. Paul will be able to bring into the national conversation such figures as, say, Edwin Vieira Jr., the visionary lawyer who has become the sage of the idea of constitutional money. That's a reference to the unit of account to which the Founders were referring when they twice used the word "dollars" in the Constitution, and which they codified in the Coinage Act of 1792 as 371 1/4 grains of pure silver, the same as in a then-ubiquitous coin known as the Spanish Milled Dollar, or its free-market equivalent in gold.

If Dr. Paul does accede to the chairmanship of the monetary subcommittee, he will, in but a few months, gavel it to order on the 40th anniversary of the summer in which President Nixon closed the gold window and brought an end to Bretton Woods. Yet a few weeks ago, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan himself, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations, warned that "fiat money has no place to go but gold." Even the president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, has just called for restoring a role for gold in the monetary system.

The great debate is finally starting up again. Who better to host it in Congress than the diminutive doctor who, more faithfully than anyone else on the Hill, has for more than a generation stood for the idea of sound money?

-----

Mr. Lipsky covered hearings of the United States Gold Commission for the Journal's editorial page. He is the author of, most recently, "The Citizen's Constitution: An Annotated Guide" (Basic Books, 2009).

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan powerplants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php




Bonds, Dollar, SP500 and Gold Have Changed Direction - Are You Ready?

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 03:07 PM PST

It has been an exciting ride to say the least with the equities and metals bull market and the plummeting dollar. But it looks as though their time is up, or at least for a few weeks. Traders and investors will slowly pull ... Read More...



Is The Dollar Rolling Over Already?

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 02:39 PM PST

Gold and silver have spiked inexplicably this evening.  I can't find any news that would have triggered the sudden, unusual early evening action.  Typically the early evening action is low volumn and the manipulators like JPM tend to try and swat the metals lower until Bombay and Hong Kong open up.  Then the physical accumulators take over.  This is actually a tradeable pattern. 

At any rate, given no news, I took a quick perusal of an hourly and daily chart of the USDX.  Here's the daily (the hourly looks bearish, but that's obviously of shorter term significance):

(click on chart to enlarge)

I am not willing to commit to calling a resumption of the downtrend.  But I do think the message of the action in gold/silver tonight reflects the market's expectation of a possible rollover.  I thought the Fed's QE2 monetization of $8.2 billion in 10-yr Treasuries - a staggering size for this duration - sent the unimistakable signal to the market that the Government is going to start having problems selling longer duration paper, especially with $104 billion in total Treasuries on deck to be issued next week.

I will commit to saying that I believe that we are at a point in the global systemic unravelling in which gold is likely to start "disconnecting" from its correlation to the US Dollar and begin to move a lot higher against anything fiat.



This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Silver Springs

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 01:48 PM PST

[U]www.preciousmetalstockreview.com November 16, 2010[/U] I gave this article the same title of a favourite Fleetwood Mac song of mine. I hope to make this article fit within the length of that great song so why don’t you join me for [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ud2XKt2N8fs"]an emotion filled hit from the past[/ame] as we go through this article together. First off. Why was Silver and Gold smashed yesterday? You’ll hear many reasons, all wrong. The only reason they dropped was because the margins were raised on Gold and Silver again by the CME. Gold margin was raised to $4,500 from $4,251 per contract. Silver was upped last week from $5,000 to $6,500 and again yesterday to $7,250 per contract. The CME did the same thing with Silver last week which had the same effect of seeing both Gold and Silver fall hard immediately. Monday saw a marked selloff in Gold and SIlver around mid-day. It seems insid...


Mark Lundeen Email To GATA's Bill Murphy - Nov 17, 2010

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 01:41 PM PST

I sent the following out to Bill Murphy for his 17 Nov 2010 Midas Comments at Le Metropole Cafe. http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Le_Menu.cfm -Mark Lundeen * * * Hi Bill The COMEX shorts are attempting to run their long counter-parties into the high weeds, but so far they’ve not been successful. Here are a few Bear’s Eye View charts to illustrate the problems the “Masters-of-the-Universes” are having. The current decline in gold feels really bad as it’s down almost $75. But as of the close of trading on 16 Nov, $75 decline is only equal to a decline of 5.31% from the highs of $1411 on 08 Nov. The Masters still have to drive gold down to $1300 to make the market correct as much as it had last July, which four months ago lead to lots of new all-time highs, or those BEV Zero% we see in the chart below. Let’s take a look at Open Interest for COMEX gold from 2000-10. From January 2000 to Jan 2008, reduction...


Brent Cook: Colombian Gold Rush

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 01:38 PM PST

Source: Karen Roche of The Gold Report 11/17/2010 New mining companies looking to benefit from the skyrocketing gold price are popping up like daisies after a spring rain, which could put you on the road to riches instead of the road to ruin. The Gold Report caught up with Exploration Insights Writer Brent Cook at the New Orleans Investment Conference to get his take on economic viability versus geology. Cook, who is also an exploration analyst and geologist, discusses why Colombia may be more like the Yukon than investors think. The Gold Report: More and more new gold companies are popping up as interest in gold as an investment vehicle increases. How does an investor begin to understand which gold companies are viable and which ones are just taking advantage of the building interest in gold? Brent Cook: Investors should consider that most of the new companies coming in now are trying to take advantage of the gold price. Longtime gold investor Rick Rule has a clas...


Crash JP Morgan Buy Silver

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 01:11 PM PST

Crash JPMorgan. Buy silver. From Canada with love. from (Cat.0.016080-Vol.7-XCv2Netbrew) on Vimeo.


RainstormGB – Crash JP Morgan Buy SILVER

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 12:40 PM PST


Crash JP Morgan, Buy Silver – Manipulation by HSBC & JP Morgan by Max Keiser

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 12:12 PM PST

A transcript of the video below is what Max Keiser discussed when encouraging others to spread the word about the viral campaign, "Crash JP Morgan, Buy Silver."


survivalfringe – Crash JP Morgan-Buy Silver

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 11:19 AM PST


Yukon Fever: Today’s Hottest Area Play

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 11:02 AM PST

by Andrey Dashkov, Editor, Casey’s International Speculator Building on the spectacular early takeover of Underworld Resources by gold major Kinross this June, recent discoveries in the Yukon Territory have made this large region of frozen tundra the hottest area play in the junior resource sector today. Economy The Yukon is Canada’s smallest sub-economy, with a GDP of only C$1.4 billion. It may be small, but mining is a traditional and essential part of the Yukon economy, and it’s also its fastest-growing segment: from 2003 to 2008, the mining industry expanded at a 10.5% average annual rate, far exceeding the 3.1% growth of all industries. A lot of this growth came in 2008 (latest available data), after the successful launch of Capstone Mining’s Minto copper mine, and new discoveries in the area started attracting a lot of investment money to this underexplored but highly prospective region. Mining grew by a whopping 56.3% in tha...


Market Recap: 11.17.2010

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 10:59 AM PST


  • Cash SPX trades in an 8 handle range. All subsectors finished within half-a-percent of unchanged. SPX closes unchanged at 1179. The DOW closes down 15 at 11008. The NASDAQ closes up 6 at 2476.
  • The VIX closed down -.82 at 21.76.
  • Tentative signs of stabilization in FX today. EURUSD consolidating around the 50% retrace of the whole down move from Dec ’09 to Jun ’10 (1.3510). AUDUSD’s fall from grace is halted ahead of pretty decent support below .9700. For the first time since the ugliness began, we found interest to wade back into risk – KRW and TRY especially. CNY is looking compelling as well – especially given the focus on EM inflation. USDJPY stabilizes as fixed income stabilizes. Cloud resistance above 55d support below.
  • The rates market had another choppy session ultimately finishing mixed with the front end 1.5bps weaker and the 5-30yr sector unchanged to 3 bps weaker.  After the CPI data came in particularly benign rates rallied into and through the Fed buy-back at 11am.  Shortly after we revered course and sold off nearly 9bps into the close.
  • Commodities were mixed today.  The energy complex edged higher following very bullish DOE stats (crude drew an impressive 7.286mm bbl) but resumed its decline as the market digested weak demand figures and liquidated longs.  Gasoil down the most, -2.7%, while NatGas soared +5.5% on a cold weather forecast for the coming weeks.  Metals held their ground with silver outperforming, up +1.45% on the day, while gold and copper were relatively unchanged.  Flow-wise, we continued to see real money long-rolling of gold.  In ags, wheat was boosted on concerns over drier weather in the US plains, while cotton traded limit down, falling 4% on the prospect of curbed Chinese demand.
  • Credit saw a bit of a pullback today, tightening a bit after the consecutive widening we have seen post the Fed. IG tightened by 2 bp’s to close at 92.50 the price of HY rose 0.3125 to close at 99.75.
  • Tomorrow brings the US Philly Fed survey, UK retail sales, Swiss trade balance, and Swedish unemployment. We also have central bank meetings for the Philippines and South Africa.

Via Goldman Sachs Data


Gold Daily Chart

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 10:56 AM PST


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Muni Meltdown

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 10:50 AM PST

The 5 min. Forecast November 17, 2010 01:53 PM by Addison Wiggin [LIST] [*] Dec. 31 doom? The double whammy about to hit income investors [*] Euro “at risk of another crash” as Ireland jawboning drags on [*] Labor Department looks around, sees no inflation… Your Thanksgiving turkey begs to differ [*] Surveying market crashes back to 1720… and a disturbing recent trend [/LIST] Yesterday was a “risk off” day. The dollar index floated above 79. Stocks and commodities got hammered. Still, this morning, since our mind tends to wander away from the herd, we were struck by another sell-off that began earlier this month, and accelerated big-time on Monday… That’s just one example among many municipal bond funds that were humbled in a biblical way. They recovered a bit yesterday, but not enough to regain their former hubris. In fact, Monday was the worst day for municipal bonds since the Panic of ’08, the yield o...


In The News Today

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 10:50 AM PST

Trader Dan's Commentary

Welcome to the new face of trading in the 21rst century… the smaller investing public will be the ones who end up eventually getting a one way ticket to the door as they cannot hope to compete in this sort of arena unless they really and truly deeply understand the particular markets that they are trading.

One thing about these funds – they are generally clueless about the character and nature of the individual markets they trade and their mindless selling and buying creates opportunities for those who know their markets well enough to spot when this computer based selling or buying has pushed prices well beyond fair value and out of sync with the supply/demand picture for that particular commodity.

One has only to respect the hedge fund community for the enormous sums of money at the disposal of their trading machines and the severe price swings that can result from such sums being shoved into or yanked out of markets en masse. As far as respecting them for any intimate knowledge of the things that they trade – that is a joke. Most of them would not be able to tell you the difference between a wheat plant or a corn plant but they are in those markets jerking them all over the place on any given day.

For these people, it is all about chasing movement – nothing else matters.

DJ MARKET TALK: A War On Milliseconds Being Waged At CME
Wed Nov 17 12:48:35 2010 EST

1748 GMT [Dow Jones] CME Group (CME) continues to whittle down trade-execution times on its electronic futures and options markets, aiming for transactions to go through in two milliseconds as opposed to the current five in key markets. Energy and metals will be cut over to the faster trade matching engines by the end of 2010, CME CEO Craig Donohue says in investor presentation Wednesday, with interest rates migrating in the first half of next year. There are one thousand milliseconds in one second, and 86,400,000 milliseconds pass by each day. (jacob.bunge@dowjones.com)

Contact us in New York.  Darlene Ross, 212 416-2166;
darlene.ross@dowjones.com

 

Jim Sinclair`s Commentary

I asked "Milo Duval" about the gold market. This wise member of the famous Duval family of Western Canada just stared at me.

clip_image001

Jim Sinclair`s Commentary

Poetic confessions of a Banker from the Red Room in Buckingham Palace. Please review.

 

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

Short the long bond with close stops sounds good to me. Cover at 100 pts (32/32), certainly not more that 200 pts declines.

This is what Bernanke sees. This is why regarding QE to infinity, however even with QE the long bonds are starting to look sick.

This is what the hoard of detractors have no clue about. Well meaning people, but still clueless politicians, are our new legislators

No QE means no tomorrow. QE equals an inflationary to hyperinflationary bunch of tomorrows. Eventually either way in time the Piper must be paid. No QE and the Piper arrives immediately.

The entire Western world will turn to QE as a kick the can further down the road exercise. A bailout of Ireland is QE. Who is Euroland trying to kid?

BOB RUBIN: "US In Terribly Dangerous Territory," Bond Market May Be Headed For "Implosion"
Aaron Task | Nov. 17, 2010, 11:24 AM

Warning of the risk of an "implosion" in the bond market, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin says the soaring federal budget deficit and the Fed's quantitative easing are putting the U.S. in "terribly dangerous territory."

Speaking at an event at The Pierre Hotel in New York City honoring Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), Rubin joined the growing number of current and former officials (foreign and domestic) to criticize QE2. The Fed's plan to buy $600 billion of Treasuries "has a lot of risk," he said, calling the international reaction "horrendous."

Rubin, who issued a similar warning about the bond market at The FT's "Future of Finance" conference in October, said Congress' vote on raising the deficit ceiling next spring could be the "trigger" for a rout in the Treasury market. Several Republican and Tea Party candidates vowed to not increase the government's debt ceiling unless Democrats agree to sharp cuts in spending that may not be politically tenable.

A Congressional standoff on the debt ceiling could spook international investors, Rubin said, alluding to a market event similar to the Dow's 778-point plunge on Sept. 29, 2008, when the House initially voted no on TARP.

While most pundits worry about the potential for China to dump its Treasury holdings, the former non-executive chairman of Citigroup said a financial version of the Cold War concept of Mutual Assured Destruction will likely prevent them from doing so. But he is worried about selling by the government's of Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia. "They could say 'the Chinese are stuck but we're not,'" Rubin predicts.

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

There is no mention in any media stream, but the munis have all the aspects of an area of finance about to roll over hard.

No QE and this markets tanks immediately. With QE it takes time for the crash.

First Serious Sign of Trouble in Muni Bond Market; Orange County California Issue Pulled
Wednesday, November 17, 2010

The Orange County Sanitation District in Southern California has postponed the sale of $160m in Build America bonds. "The bond market has been pretty volatile and flooded with new issues," said Mike White, the controller.

Translation: They can't get the deal done at a reasonable price, if at all.

Expect further problems, on Tuesday, the yields on triple A 10-year muni-bonds rose 18 bps to 2.93 per cent, the largest one-day rise since October of 2008, according the MMD index.

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

Having spent more than a year negotiating with our Chinese brothers, I can tell you that this says China will be buying lots of gold immediately.

A very good book to purchase on the art of understanding our Chinese brothers is "When Yes Means No."

China Considers Gradual Increase in Gold Reserve Holdings, Newspaper Says
By Bloomberg News – Nov 16, 2010 10:21 PM ET

China is considering gradually increasing the nation's gold reserves, the 21st Century Business Herald reported today, citing an unidentified consultant to the government.

There are limits to China's ability to increase gold holdings on a large scale within a short time, so the gains in the government reserves will be a slow, incremental process, the newspaper said, citing the consultant. China currently has 1,064 metric tons of gold, accounting for 1.6 percent of its foreign exchange reserves, it added.

Gold has gained 22 percent this year, reaching a record $1,424.60 on Nov. 9, as a weakening dollar and concern about the global recovery has spurred demand for a store of value. China should purchase gold and oil overseas with its foreign-exchange reserves to avoid losses from a weakening dollar, Shao Fenggao, an official at China Construction Bank Corp., said on Nov. 1.

"People have always been speculating about China's gold reserves, but I think there is not much point in second-guessing whether the government is going to buy gold," Ronald Wang, general manager for greater China at the World Gold Council, said by phone from Beijing today. "They have access to information and they must have a plan with regard to gold."

China remained the biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, after its holdings rose by $15.1 billion to $883.5 billion in September from $868.4 billion in August, according to the Treasury's statistics.

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

This is legalized fabrication. Balance sheets should reveal the financial condition of an entity on a given date.

The assumption that banks never sell is a foundation for a decision set in shifting sand that skirts the reason for a yearly balance sheet.

CIGA Eric observes:

"When governments and banking intertwine, as they have slowly done since the adoption of the US constitution, the consequences of greed-driven mistakes are often postponed through bailouts of various types. This action encourages even more hubris and sense of invincibility until the two are forcibly separated by the brute strength of market forces. Thomas Jefferson, a student of Adam Smith and practical economist, understood the dangers entangling banking and government. The words chosen in the U.S. Constitution and his correspondence suggest it."

Sheila Bair, FDIC Chair, today:

Fair Value Accounting

"Another ongoing regulatory process is FASB's proposal to substantially revise the accounting standards for financial instruments. Under the proposed rule, banks would be required to measure substantially all of their financial instruments at fair value on the balance sheet.

While we understand that the objective of the rule is to make financial statements more transparent, we believe that its effect could be to undermine financial stability by making bank performance more procyclical. In short, we do not believe that a bank – whose business strategy is to hold loans and deposit liabilities for the long term – should be required to measure them at fair value on the balance sheet."

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

Right on, Mr. Lenihan.

My half Irish side says you are taking a beating and doing nothing about it.

'Attack on euro' led Ireland to seek aid
By John Murray Brown and Tony Barber
Published: November 17 2010 12:21 | Last updated: November 17 2010 12:21

Brian Lenihan, Ireland's finance minister, said it was the attack on the euro that had prompted Ireland to seek assistance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

In his first comments since the dramatic announcement that an EU-IMF mission was being immediately dispatched to Dublin, Mr Lenihan insisted Ireland's banks had "no funding difficulties" but said an aid package might be necessary if "further difficulties materialise".

He sought to reassure Irish depositors that their savings remained protected and dismissed opposition claims that he was surrendering Ireland's economic sovereignty.

"Ireland has been the point of the attack on that currency in recent weeks and it's important that we build up our defence and ensure that the currency itself is protected. And for that reason, the Irish government will fully engage with this process and work with the mission to ensure that everything possible is done to secure the Irish banking system," Mr Lenihan told Irish radio

He said the Irish government and its EU partners were still examining "options" on what shape a package of financial assistance might take. But he said: "There is no question of loading on to the Irish sovereign and the Irish state some kind of unspecified burden. That's why the government took great care not to make a formal application at this stage but to engage in intensive discussions to see exactly what the options are."

He said what "may be required may not in fact be an actual transfer of money now, but [a] demonstration of how much money can be made available if further difficulties materialise".

More…


Silver and Steroids

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 10:47 AM PST

Price history plays such a dominant role in the psychology of precious metals trading that anyone engaged in trading these speculative commodities should really consider just how potent the juice is that's hitting silver prices out of the park. Read More...



WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 10:44 AM PST

Gold trades sideways amid uncertainty over Irish debt

The COMEX December gold futures contract closed down $1.50 Wednesday at $1336.90, trading between $1330.10 and $1344.60

November 17, p.m. excerpts:
(from TheStreet)
Irish sovereign debtGold prices spent much of the day flat after a broad market selloff in the previous session as investors stepped in to buy gold at lower prices. But until investors get some clarity on Ireland's debt situation and what it means for other EU nations like Spain and Portugal, which are also struggling, the euro is expected to stay under pressure which will support a higher dollar and temper gold prices. Reportedly, Ireland's finance minister will meet with officials from the European Central Bank, EU and IMF on Thursday to broach the topic of aid and examine the health of Irish banks…more
(from AP)
Britain, which is not part of the 16-nation bloc that uses the euro, on Wednesday offered to provide additional support to Ireland beyond any help it gets from the European Union or the IMF. British banks would be among the hardest hit by an Irish default because they are among the largest holders of Irish bonds. Investors are concerned that a failure in Ireland could be just another step in a string of bailouts needed to help governments throughout Europe, with big government debts in Portugal, Spain and Italy. The euro rose slightly against the dollar Wednesday, but remains near its lowest level since late September…more
(from Dow Jones)
Gold traders were also disappointed by steady U.S. inflation data as the consumer price index rose 0.2% in October, less than the 0.3% forecast by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. Wednesday's trading volumes were subdued after CME Group, which owns the Nymex, raised trading margins on gold, platinum and palladium after the close of business Tuesday. "The margin increases on the exchange have taken away some of the liquidity from the precious metals complex," noted Dave Meger, head of trading at Vision Financial Markets…more
(from Marketwatch)
Rollover — when investors must choose between continuing on with subsequent-month contracts, take delivery or liquidate — has started in earnest and some investors are choosing to sit out, commented Frank Lesh, futures analyst with FuturePath Trading. "A lot of the funds made an awful lot of money this year" and they don't want to risk these profits in a "thin and uneventful" end-of-the-year market, he said. Gold for December delivery retreated 0.1% on the Comex, having wavered between gains and losses earlier…more
(from Reuters)
Wednesday's drop marked gold's longest stretch of consecutive daily losses in five months, but it has not suffered to the same extent as other raw materials. "It's performed reasonably well in the correction relative to, for example, some of the base metals. Gold is only off about 6.5% from the high. Compare that to something like zinc, for example, which has plunged and is now down about 20% from the recent highs," said Credit Suisse analyst Tom Kendall. "That reinforces the defensive qualities of gold and its diversification benefits."…more
(from Bloomberg)
Demand for gold rose 12% in the third quarter, led by a 36% increase in jewelry buying from India, according to the World Gold Council. "Emerging markets continue to lead demand," said Eily Ong, an investment research manager at the council. "We see rising income levels and consumers who have a higher savings rate. They want to lock in their wealth in an asset that has the preservation properties of gold." BNP Paribas SA said today in a report that the metal will average $1,500 next year, up from an estimate of $1,290…more

see full news, 24-hr newswire…


Gold Price Targeting $1,600, No Evidence To Suggest Any Changes To The Chart Set So Long Ago

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 10:03 AM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1336.80
Change : (1.50) or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 25.507
Change : 0.278 cents or 1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.41
Change : -0.637 or -1.2%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01908
Change : 0.000229 or 1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1639.70
Change : -29.80 or -1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 659.75
Change : -8.75 or -1.3%

S&P 500 : 1,178.59
Change : 0.25 or 0.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $170.22
Change : $ (0.03) or 0.0%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.235
Change : -0.002 or 0.0%

Dow in SILVER oz : 431.56
Change : -0.66 or -0.2%

Dow Industrial : 11,007.88
Change : -15.62 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index : 79.08
Change : -0.132 or -0.2%

The GOLD PRICE played sideways all day, ranging from $1331.30 to $1,341.75, resolving nothing, hinting nothing. This sideways rectangular pattern can be a consolidation for reversal, or it can be a continuation pattern. Nothing tells me which, although today's slightly higher low give about a 2 degree upward bias.

Gold has struck its 50 Day Moving Average ($1,330.25), which often serves as a springboard to turn a correction around.

Recall also the seasonal pattern. 'Tis not rare but common that silver and gold correct in November, then rise through December.

The SILVER PRICE, on the other hand, has been riding its 20 DMA since last July, rather than the 50. Today that 20 DMA stands at 2541c, and silver today sort of bounced off that mark. The silver graph has pierced the 20 DMA about as much as it did back in August. If silver doesn't hold here or at lateral support of 2500c, then you have to cast your eyes down to the 50 DMA at 2335c. Right now, I don't expect that. We may have seen the low yesterday, but it's awfully early to tell. We need confirmation by silver breaking through 2600c.

These mixed closes are no fun. I feel like a bimetallic thermostat in a lukewarm room -- don't know whether to blow hot or cold. Tomorrow will explain all.

Here's one more little hint: premiums are climbing on silver bullion products. 90% coin has risen about a dime, silver bullion 30c and delayed. When premiums begin rising in a falling market, it often marks a turnaround.

Reasons abound for fear in the face of the present market. It could turn out very badly for silver and gold, but I have not yet seen that evidence that can pry me away from the target the chart set so long ago for $1,600 gold. When you are stubborn and right, they call you a genius. When you are stubborn and wrong, they call you a Demo---. No, no, wait, I didn't mean that. I meant a Keynesian. Or a Federal Reserve chairman. Or a socialist -- but I repeat myself.

It's never fun to see a market where one member rises and another falls the same day. Like trying to pick up a rabid weasel, it's almost sure to bite you whichever end you grab.

So today GOLD closed $1.50 lower to $1,336.80 while SILVER rose like a champ 27.8c to 2550.7c. What in the world do you make out of that?

The US DOLLAR INDEX today couldn't pierce that 79.40 resistance, having run through an entire leg up and entered corrective mode. It dropped 13.2 basis points (0.17%) to 79.078. Notice that the buck still hung on to that upward rung of 79. What you are watching is a normal correction within a longer move up. First sign of a break would be the dollar below 78.70. For now the dollar's bubble is a-rising.

STOCKS put in a sorry performance again today. The Dow's daily chart looks like rags hung out to dry on a board fence. Dow fell 15.62 to 11,077.88 while the S&P500 rose 0.25 to 1,178.59. There's another non-confirming market for you. All other indices rose but the Dow -- not by much, but they rose.

Markets that gainsay themselves are bewildered markets, not sure which way to jump.

Hope for the best, but buy sacks of dried beans and plenty of ammo.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.


Investments, Pensions and Government Guarantees

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 10:00 AM PST

Back to Venezuela. Yesterday, we noted that old Hugo is promising to give investors guaranteed returns from government owned industries (including those recently expropriated from private owners).

Well, if you want to make a lot of money by investing in foreign markets you should put your money where blood flows in the streets. And maybe Venezuela is getting close. It is the most mismanaged economy in the Western hemisphere – with the possible exceptions of Haiti and Cuba. In the past 12 years, it has exported nearly half a trillion dollars' worth of oil. Yet, by all indications, the Venezuelan economy is falling apart.

Chavez has not been able to deliver on his promises. Key indicators – poverty rate, literacy, etc. – have generally improved, but not as much as in Mexico and other Latin American countries. And expropriations and continued rabble-rousing has scared off foreign investment.

Voters seemed to turn against Chavez in last month's legislative elections, so the man has turned on the heat. More expropriations. More threatening rhetoric. More nonsensical policies.

We have not followed prices on the Venezuelan stock market, but brave investors might want to have a look.

But hey, if Hugo Chavez can guarantee investment returns, why not the US government?

It's coming, dear reader.

Once again, we are grateful for the opportunity to see in real time such spectacularly stupid things as must make the gods weep. Or laugh.

When governments become desperate for money, they take it wherever they can get it. It's probably just a matter of time before they begin to eye the American retirement system. They've been living on "excess" Social Security contributions for many years. That is, people paid more into the system than they got out of it. Until this year. Now the system is in deficit.

So, they're bound to look at 401(k) and other retirement programs.

It was reported in the press that there was a proposal to seize these private retirement plans. Not so. But on October 7th, Teresa Ghilarducci, a professor at the New School for Social Research in New York, proposed to Congress that they introduce a program where workers could "swap their 401(k) assets…for a Guaranteed Retirement Account…that would be composed of the equivalent of government bonds that pay a 3% real return."

How about that? A guaranteed return of 3%. Wait, is that AFTER inflation? Hmmm. Yep. That's what the proposal calls for.

Another crackpot idea…but just wait. The feds will pitch it as a solution to the problem of negative returns in 401 k plans. After inflation, deflation, maybe even hyperinflation, and a bear market…these GUARANTEED returns will sound like a good deal. A guaranteed 3% ain't bad.

This is, effectively, what Argentina did. It nationalized private pension plans to protect retirees! Could the US do it too? You bet.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Investments, Pensions and Government Guarantees originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."


Max Keiser: Crash JP Morgan - Buy Silver!

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 09:54 AM PST


A First Person Account Of How Bernanke's Export Of Inflation Is Fueling Asia's Last Bubble, And The Bonfire Of The Fiaties

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 09:40 AM PST


Much has been said about how the PPI and the CPI are stuck in deflation mode (despite what everyone is seeing when buying groceries or filling up empty gas tanks). Much less has been discussed about how Bernanke's  blunt policy tool of unlimited liquidity is leading to an inflation-driven bubble in Asia (and all Emerging Markets). Luckily, Macro Man Simon Black provides a first person perspective of how this bubble is developing, and how it will soon pop. In some ways this is empirical evidence of what Knight Research said previously: namely that the days of an EM push-pull mechanism are coming to an end. Here is why Knight's conclusion is spot on, paraphrased half way around the world: "when central banks start ratcheting up interest rates (like the Fed did in 2004 and what China is doing now...), buyers and developers no longer have access to cheap credit. Demand drops, and prices fall. When this finally happens, I think the subsequent fallout will serve as another strong argument to abandon the dollar and reset the financial system, especially in the developing world.  All they need is a reasonable alternative. China is already allowing its currency to be used for cross-border settlement and limited reserve status, and as this function grows for the renminbi, you can bet that Asian nations will stop importing American monetary inflation and start exporting those dollars back home." A must read note for all those who base their investment decisions based on theoretical musings and thought experiment speculation.

From: Sovereign Man: Notes from the Field

Date: November 17, 2010
Reporting From: Labuan, off the coast of Borneo

Because I travel so much, I have the luxury of being able to compare real estate prices among all the places I've been recently. How does a flat in London compare with an apartment in Bangkok? How does an estate in Cape Town compare with a single family home in Singapore?

I have to say, residential real estate prices in many developing economies are astoundingly high on a value-adjusted basis... and it's because supply and demand fundamentals are being distorted by central bankers and politicians.

Housing demand, for example, should primarily be driven by demographic factors and real wages; rising populations and net migration increase the number of new households, and higher incomes reduce the average size of existing households (kids move out of mom and dad's house and find their own place).

Demand is often twisted by government policy, though. In certain countries like the US and the Netherlands, the tax code incentivizes home ownership by allowing the deduction of mortgage interest.  Carrying costs like home repairs and property taxes may also be deducted in many countries.

Perhaps the ultimate demand distortion, though, is easy monetary policy. Interest rates don't generally matter for smaller purchases-- nobody checks the 3-month LIBOR before heading out to the local convenience store for a cup of coffee and a candy bar.

When money is cheap and easy to borrow, though, people have a strong incentive to purchase a home and bid higher prices because they can afford more house for the same (or lower) monthly payment. 

On an institutional level, banks have a strong incentive to make loans for property in an environment of loose monetary policy; capital is plentiful, burning a hole in the bankers' pockets, and they're accountable to shareholders to turn that capital into profit.

We all know how this story worked out in the United States and the UK over the last few years; simply put-- not well.  I'm seeing similar bubble indicators in several Asian countries right now... and it's a direct result of the so-called currency wars. 

Ben Bernanke's successful efforts to reduce the value of the dollar have caused commensurate money printing around the world; foreign central banks are fighting to keep their currencies restrained against the dollar because nobody wants to be the country with the 'expensive' currency-- that would reduce their cheap exports.


A common tactic of foreign central bankers has been to artificially depress interest rates, making a great deal of capital available to local banks. Add to this many hundreds of billions of newly printed dollars that have fled the US seeking higher returns overseas, and it's easy to understand why asset prices are rising so quickly: there's too much new money in the system.

Thailand is a good example. The Thai baht has strengthened over 10% this year against the US dollar because institutions and large investors have abandoned their greenback holdings in favor of greater potential returns in Thailand. Coupled with the low interest rates set by Thailand's central bank, the country is awash with new money.

A substantial portion of this capital is flooding the housing market.  Developers can get cheap loans to build their projects, buyers can get cheap mortgages to purchase the end-units, and contractors are able to get cheap credit facilities.

The final result in Thailand has been a significant runup in housing prices, as well as the number of units available.  There is a massive bubble forming in the country, and the indicators are everywhere. One of the strongest that I saw was a series advertisements offering teaser mortgage rates at 90% loan-to-value... to foreigners!

(Now, if you've ever bought property overseas, you know how difficult it can be for a foreigner to qualify for a mortgage... yet it's getting to the point where if you have a pulse, you can get a loan.  When banks and developers are giving money away, this is a major sign of a liquidity bubble.)

Thailand is just one example; there has been much discussion about mainland China's housing bubble as well.... the People's printing press has been running around the clock to keep up with Bernanke's, and the trillions of renminbi created has given rise to triple-digit housing returns.

Chinese money is also finding its way into regional property markets. Hong Kong is a massive recipient-- interest rates on the island are already near zero, and the combination of cheap money and Chinese capital has spun housing prices out of control.

For property investors, rental income hasn't kept pace with the funny money that's fueling the asset price gains; in fact, many investment properties are cash-flow negative (rents are too low relative to mortgage and other carrying costs). When you can't turn a profit in an environment of historically low interest rates, it's time for the bubble to pop.

We've already seen what happens next-- when central banks start ratcheting up interest rates (like the Fed did in 2004 and what China is doing now...), buyers and developers no longer have access to cheap credit. Demand drops, and prices fall.

When this finally happens, I think the subsequent fallout will serve as another strong argument to abandon the dollar and reset the financial system, especially in the developing world.  All they need is a reasonable alternative.

China is already allowing its currency to be used for cross-border settlement and limited reserve status, and as this function grows for the renminbi, you can bet that Asian nations will stop importing American monetary inflation and start exporting those dollars back home.

In the meantime, if you're mulling over a life change and thinking about a move to one of Asia's vibrant, growing economies.... consider renting first.


Gold Resistance at 1355

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 09:40 AM PST

courtesy of DailyFX.com November 17, 2010 07:30 AM 60 Minute Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele Gold formed 2 dojis last week and a weekly key reversal. When combined with RSI divergence (waning momentum) and the long term resistance line (shown last week), the technical picture is bearish. Near term, a small 4th wave correction may be underway. Watch 1355 (but more importantly channel resistance) for resistance....


Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 09:31 AM PST

View the original post at jsmineset.com... November 17, 2010 11:20 AM Dear CIGAs, Click chart to enlarge today's hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini ...


Jim?s Mailbox

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 09:31 AM PST

View the original post at jsmineset.com... November 17, 2010 08:45 AM Dear Eric, The Fed will QE to infinity as will euroland. Regards, Jim Fed likely to buy entire $600 billion in plan: Bullard CIGA Eric Yesterday, the need to use the full $600 billion was doubted. This doubt was flashed across the newswires in regular intervals. This perception, in turn, supported the dollar and the smashing of nearly every commodity and non-dollar 'play'. This included the stock market. Truth be told, $600 billion won’t be enough. When further economic sluggishness demands more monetary injections, a similar doubting game will emerge to provide cover for paper control. A top Federal Reserve official said on Wednesday the central bank is likely to follow through on its entire $600 billion bond buying program based on an anticipated weak economic recovery. "As the forecast looks right now it looks like we’ll be purchasing at this pace through the end of the second quarter to...


Yukon Fever: Today's Hottest Area Play

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 09:24 AM PST

Building on the spectacular early takeover of Underworld Resources by gold major Kinross this June, recent discoveries in the Yukon Territory have made this large region of frozen tundra the hottest area play in the junior resource sector today. Read More...



Black Swans, Yellow Gold

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 08:59 AM PST


Newsletter - Special Edition

SPECIAL EDITION of our newsletter JUST RELEASED.

If you are not on our e-mail list and you would like to be, you can register here at no charge. (Upper left of page)

Clients & Friends,

Pick your poison — deflation, disinflation, runaway stagflation or hyperinflation. How would gold likely perform under each of these ultimate black swan events? To find out, read this SPECIAL EDITION of USAGOLD's News, Commentary and Analysis by Michael J. Kosares, the author of The ABCs of Gold Investing – How to Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold and the founder of USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals.

We would like to also pass along our best wishes for a Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours from all of us at at your favorite gold firm.

Good cheer to all. . . .

Marie Ballard
USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
Trading Desk
1-800-869-5115


Two Dates to Remember for the Municipal Bond Market

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 08:52 AM PST

Yesterday was a "risk off" day. The dollar index floated above 79. Stocks and commodities got hammered.

Still, since our mind tends to wander away from the herd, we were struck by another sell-off that began earlier this month, and accelerated big-time on Monday…

1-Year Performance of the Nuveen Municipal Value Fund

That's just one example among many municipal bond funds that were humbled in a biblical way. They recovered a bit yesterday, but not enough to regain their former hubris.

In fact, Monday was the worst day for municipal bonds since the Panic of '08, the yield on 10-year AAA debt blowing out from 2.75% to 2.93%.

That prompted several issuers to hold off on new financing plans. For instance…

  • Orange County, Calif., postponed the sale of $160 million in Build America Bonds (about which more below). "The bond market has been pretty volatile and flooded with new issues," says county controller Mike White
  • Cleveland's public hospital system postponed the sale of $100 million in bonds intended to refinance existing higher-interest debt.

"Yields rose in such a way that our refunding didn't make sense anymore," says president Mark Moran of MetroHealth System in Cleveland. Heh, if he thinks yields are high now, and it doesn't "make sense" to enter the credit markets, he's in for a rude shock.

The Great Recession cratered revenue for states and municipalities all across the nation. Desperate to make ends meet while still maintaining existing levels of services, they did the logical thing: They cried to Washington, DC.

Of course, as we've been observing in excruciating detail, Washington came through – big. Unfortunately, that milk and honey was flowing from a dry teat.

Thus, with morose trepidation, we forecast this morning that the municipal bond market is facing a double whammy day of reckoning, on the two following dates:

  • Dec. 31, 2010: Funding for Build America Bonds runs out. These bonds were part of the "stimulus" bill passed early 2009, subsidizing municipalities' costs for public works projects to the tune of $150 billion.

About a quarter of all muni issuance this year has been Build America Bonds. Unless the lame-duck Democrat-controlled Congress moves quickly, this money goes bye-bye in six weeks

  • June 30, 2011: Still more federal aid expires on this date – some of it authorized by the "stimulus" bill, more under the "jobs" bill passed last summer, totaling another $150 billion to date. Without this money, states would have already slashed a host of programs, including unemployment benefits and Medicaid.

The likelihood the new Republican-controlled House will extend this aid ranges between slim and none. We saw Slim at the train station this morning…he's leaving town.

Days of reckoning are never "fun" per se. Least of all will these be for the savers and retirees who've purchased municipal bonds because they've been deemed a safe source of tax-free retirement income for, well, ever.

The iceberg looming beneath the surface: A host of corporate and state pension plans rely on munis too.

Addison Wiggin
for The Daily Reckoning

Two Dates to Remember for the Municipal Bond Market originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."


Gold bracelet from 1000 BCE unearthed

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 08:51 AM PST

November 17, 2010 LONDON (CNN) — Archaeologists have uncovered an ancient Roman landscape beneath a park in west London, with a Roman road, evidence of a settlement, and unusual burials among the finds.

They say the discovery — at the site of a planned luxury hotel near the edge of the River Thames — gives valuable and rare insight into the daily life of what was then an agricultural village.

Dating back nearly 2,000 years, the village would have supplied the ancient Roman city of Londinium and also given shelter to passing travelers.

… The dig also revealed evidence of a rural settlement and an ancient tributary of the Thames. Thousands of Roman artifacts were recovered from the site, including two shale armlets and fragments of a lava quern stone, used for grinding grains.

Archaeologists also found a fragment of an "exceptional" Late Bronze Age (1000-700 B.C.) gold bracelet that probably predated the site, as well as hundreds of coins.

"All of the coins came from the Roman road," she said. "That road was in use for 400 years across the Roman period, and people have just dropped coins over those hundreds of years."

One of them is a coin made of copper alloy that features a V, which Lyon said could refer to Vespasian, who was Roman emperor between 9 and 79 A.D..

[source]


Colombian Gold Rush - Brent Cook

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 08:39 AM PST

The Gold Report submits:

New mining companies looking to benefit from the skyrocketing gold price are popping up like daisies after a spring rain, which could put you on the road to riches instead of the road to ruin. The Gold Report caught up with "Exploration Insights" writer Brent Cook at the New Orleans Investment Conference to get his take on economic viability versus geology. Cook, who is also an exploration analyst and geologist, discusses why Colombia may be more like the Yukon than investors think.

The Gold Report: More and more new gold companies are popping up as interest in gold as an investment vehicle increases. How does an investor begin to understand which gold companies are viable and which ones are just taking advantage of the building interest in gold?

Brent Cook: Investors should consider that most of the new companies coming in now are trying to take advantage of the gold price. Longtime gold investor Rick Rule has a classic statement that the only thing that limits the supply of paper that the Canadian market can print is the number of trees between British Colombia and Newfoundland. To some degree, that is very accurate. I think it is important to be even more diligent in reviewing companies today. Investors should look at management, share structure and the prospectivity of the projects the companies are actually planning to spend your money on. That is key.


Complete Story »


How Management of Perspective Economics (MOPE) Backfires

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 08:28 AM PST

Dear CIGAs,

The unending criticism of the Fed's action on QE must have its foundation in a belief that has been prolifically communicated to the public by all kinds of media.

1. The US Economy is improving and will continue to.
2. Balance sheets of US financial entities have improved greatly.

Therefore they cannot see why the Fed needs to try to stimulate anything.

1. The answer is that the US Economic recovery is stalled. Anything going higher more slowly is starting down on the Economic Accelerator Factor.

The Economic Accelerator Factor is a law of economic denied now for 30 years.

The answer to number one is that the US economy is looking for a lower low on the next move.

2. The balance sheets of the US financial entities show an improvement based on a total FABRICATION. The FASB sold their soul to Wall Street by allowing the entities in question to make up valuation having nothing to do with true value. The fact that a bank holds a piece of junk to the end does not justify valuing junk at cost. That is moronic and destroys the purpose of accounting and auditing.

MOPE has convinced every Fed detractor that all is well. It isn't.

Top Republicans and Tea Party members are afloat in public letters and complaints to the Fed, but inherent to the people, about the Fed. As well meaning as these people are, they have no idea what dislocation they will cause immediately.

QE is not right but it is the only tool left for the Fed.

The new bodies in the legislative will prevent any fiscal measures. The final hit of the fan will be the result of well meaning but economically ignorant people.

Assuming the new people prevail over the Fed, gold will go to unimaginable prices as Western society implodes.

One conclusion now is neither the right nor the left has a clue of how serious conditions are. As I have told you for years, there is no practical solution to what many administrations have done.

MOPE has backfired.


The Best Ways to Buy Foreign Real Estate

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 08:15 AM PST

There has never been a better time to buy development land in Latin America. It's a buyer's market…and there are many creative ways to buy – for large and small investors alike.

Many landowners in Latin America are under financial pressure…and buyers are thin on the ground. Sales in many markets have slowed as a result of financial and economic problems in the US. This has kept land prices artificially low, and means that many developers need to tap alternative sources of finance.

This slow-down in demand is temporary. The medium-term drivers in the market are just too strong. One of those drivers is a large group of Americans, born in the years 1946-1964, and dubbed the baby boomers. More than 4.5 million North Americans (mostly baby boomers) are now considering living in, or owning property in, Latin America.

Baby boomer retirement will largely drive the market for overseas real estate in parts of Central and South America for the next 20 years. This trend is in its infancy. Financial and economic difficulties in the US will increase this trend, not retard it. Many retirees simply can't afford to live in the US on their retirement savings. Boomers will look to the tropics for new, affordable lifestyle opportunities. There's more than one way to profit from this trend.

You could just buy retail property (lots, condos, etc)…or you could take another approach: investing in a development.

The biggest returns in development come to those who get in at a wholesale level. Buying large tracts of land, obtaining permits, planning and building, selling and marketing is only for those with the experience, resources and the team to pull it off…or for those of us who invest in the right people.

Today, there are opportunities to get in at this ground-floor wholesale level and let someone else do all the work. But you should look for deals where the developer has the same type of equity at stake as you…so he'll work just as hard for you as he will for himself. Don't invest in a developer who's going to use your money to pay himself a fat cut before he puts your money to work.

Look for deals where you get to participate in the purchase of development land at undervalued prices. This land needs to be in a market you like. Debt should be kept to a minimum.

Most importantly the development team needs to have a track record of delivering projects like this and getting things done. And the deal needs to be structured in a way that you get to enjoy the maximum upside potential. There are a number of ways you can participate at an investment level from your armchair:

Pure equity investment. This amounts to becoming a shareholder in a development company. You make an investment, and you get an agreed number of shares in return. Invested amounts vary from a couple of hundred thousand dollars to seven-figure sums. Some groups offer opportunities where smaller investors can get in with as little as $50,000. Return on investment can take several years – but sometimes deals like this can start making disbursements to shareholders as soon as sales start flowing. I like these deals because investors' returns are uncapped. They enjoy the same upside potential as the developers.

Hard money loans. More and more developers are offering this type of investment as banks tighten their lending policies and credit dries up from other sources. A hard money loan behaves in a similar way to a corporate bond. A developer borrows money from you and agrees to pay it back in a fixed time period. Meantime, you get monthly or quarterly interest payments. Your loan should be backed by a real and liquid asset. You need to be comfortable that in a default scenario you could recoup your investment by selling the asset your loan was secured on. Interest rates can be high, 20% and higher. Unlike the equity play, your return is capped at this level. With the right security available, this can be a relatively easy way to earn an annualized 20%.

Bulk purchase of units. Once a developer has locked down a piece of land, it takes time to nail down the master-plan and get all the relevant permits. During this period, a developer may offer an agreed number of lots in return for a cash investment. In effect, you are buying lots before the master-plan has even been drafted. In return, you get lots at a deeply discounted price to the projected retail price.

Sometimes deals like this are structured in a way that you buy shares, and your dividend payout is lots. You receive your dividend once the master-plan is finalized and permits are in place. I like this type of arrangement because once you are allocated your lots you have control and flexibility. For example, you might want to sell some of your lots to recoup your original investment.

The bulk purchase of lots is perfect for a small or mid-sized investor who wants to retain full flexibility and control over his asset. Again, security is key. You need to be sure that your investment is secured against land or held in escrow until title is transferred on your lot.

For smaller investors, there's another compelling way to invest in foreign real estate…and you may not even know about it. I'm talking about using your IRA.

The IRS is flexible and accommodating when it comes to doing this. You can do this as long as your IRA is "self directed" and you don't work with a custodian who imposes his own investment restrictions.

Many Americans I know have already done this. You can own pretty much any kind of real estate in your IRA or other retirement account. Everything from raw land to single-family homes to condos to office buildings…once the investment complies with some straightforward rules that outline what you can and cannot do. A simple rule of thumb is that your retirement plan is designed to benefit you at retirement and not beforehand. That means that you can invest in any type of real estate, as long as it is an investment and not for personal use before your retirement.

You can buy your dream retirement home using IRA funds today. Once you retire, you can take possession of the property…in effect taking it as a distribution of your plan. Between now and retirement, you can generate income for your plan by renting out the property. You can buy and flip properties within your IRA and you can even use your IRA to buy an option on a property or piece of land.

International real estate continues to offer both diversification and growth opportunities. Diversify your investment portfolio outside the US economy and the dollar into growth markets and appreciating currencies. Real estate in Brazil, for example, continues to rapidly appreciate, while the real (Brazil's currency) has strengthened in value against the US dollar.

So, not only can you finance your dream home using IRA funds…you can put your retirement planning on a more diversified footing.

Regards,

Ronan McMahon
for The Daily Reckoning

The Best Ways to Buy Foreign Real Estate originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."


The Yukon Metals and Mining Boom: Today’s Hottest Investment Play

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 08:14 AM PST

Andrey Dashkov, Editor, Casey’s International Speculator writes: Building on the spectacular early takeover of Underworld Resources by gold major Kinross this June, recent discoveries in the Yukon Territory have made this large region of frozen tundra the hottest area play in the junior resource sector today.


U.S. Dollar Trend Puts Gold Under Pressure

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 08:02 AM PST

Last week I warned that the U.S. Dollar was reaching three year lows and to expect a dollar bounce. The dollar has bounced higher as risk aversion has returned with Ireland on the verge of needing a bailout and China raising interest rates to combat rising inflation. There are growing concerns of the Fed needing to raise interest rates ahead of schedule. The previous euphoria in commodities appears to be waning and the technicals are demonstrating the fundamental challenges facing commodities.


Knight Research' Stunning Call: "The Game Is Over"

Posted: 17 Nov 2010 07:52 AM PST


From Knight Research. Presented without commentary.

The Game Is Over

The simple story is this: We believe the structural and cyclical terms of global trade have finally reached their tipping point. This will catalyze a wholesale change in sentiment and a historic repositioning of risk assets. The emerging market global growth story is over.

  • In meetings with clients throughout October, we began emphasizing our growing concerns about the nearly ubiquitous confidence the financial markets—and for that matter, global leaders and their body politic—have in China; and by extension, the rest of the emerging market story, commodities, and the direction of foreign exchange cross-rates.
  • Not surprisingly, our concerns were met with varying degrees of resistance; but the overall consensus clearly favored a very bullish, asymmetric outcome over both the near and intermediate terms. When pressed as to our own sense of timing and specific catalysts  for broad-based trend reversal, candidly we were unclear. Our sense then, was that the higher and faster the commodity markets pushed, the sooner the reversal would occur. But we have now clarified our view.
  • In just the past several weeks, we believe the data and government actions out of China, the back-up in US interest rates, the Fed’s emphatic commitment to QE2, intensifying pressures across the EU, broadly rising commodity prices, government efforts to control hot money flows, have finally pushed the global terms of trade to their tipping point.
  • And now, as is evident by the flight to safety, and growing evidence that China will soon try and effect price controls in addition to raising interest rates and significantly changing the rules for their vast network of Local Government Funding Vehicles (LGFVs); the writing is on the wall. The game is over.
  • The simple story is this: The structural and cyclical terms of global trade have reached their tipping point which will effect a wholesale change in sentiment and a historic repositioning of risk assets.
  • So what do we consider the “terms of global trade”? Structurally, per our top chart, they are the intersection of Government Policy (viz., rule of law, market systems, trade law, etc.,) Resource and Industry (viz., natural resources, labor/demographic pools, industrial advantages, import dependencies, etc.,) and Economic Security (viz., the sovereign’s competitive standing, the relative power/needs of the citizenry, the mandate/control of the government, etc.) And cyclically, (as represented by the light blue, bold arrows) the terms of trade are defined by the intersection of foreign exchange rates, commodity prices, and the cost and availability of trade finance.
  • And in our assessment given:
  1. The structural breakdown of the credit and labor markets in the developed world and the anemic outlook for nominal GDP growth
  2. The immaturity of the developing world and their vulnerability to credit shocks and uncontrollable inflation
  3. China’s dependence upon non-economic, and unsustainable credit expansion to maintain growth far beyond natural export and domestic demand, and
  4. Asia’s dependence upon imported energy and agriculture

the game is over. Presently, we believe that the broad-based resurgence of investor confidence in the emerging market and secular bull market in commodities will end badly; proving that the rally which commenced in Q2 2009, was in fact an “echo bubble” facilitated by massive—and unsustainable—stimuli from the Chinese Government

  • And although such cataclysmic shocks rarely result in rhythmic, straight line fractures, the chain of price adjustments should be  relatively clear. Accordingly, we expect a shockingly powerful rally in the dollar, broadbased weakness across the commodity sector, a dramatic widening of emerging market credit spreads, and what could prove to be a stampede of hot fund flows out of the emerging markets.
  • We appreciate both the gravity and the brevity of this note; but then again, the story is simple.

We believe that the end of the Great Consumer Credit Cycle and the vast structural differences in the terms of trade between the United States, the EU, and China, have finally caught up with the secular bull thesis on Emerging Market and Commodities. Quite ironically, the Fed’s aggressive policies will likely prove to be the catalyst which breaks China’s unbridled expansion of credit and non-economic growth, ushering in a wholesale rebalancing of risk assets.

 


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