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Sunday, October 17, 2010

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


International Forecaster October 2010 (#5) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

Posted: 17 Oct 2010 04:00 AM PDT

Today's great debate basically between the US and Europe is – should the Fed go full bore by implementing a second quantitative easing? In part it is a moot point, because they have been doing just that in the repo market for four months without letting anyone know what they were up too. Their mandate is to reduce inflation and create full employment. Real inflation is 7% and unemployment is 22-3/4%.


Silver – Reflections of a Major Price Breakout

Posted: 17 Oct 2010 03:00 AM PDT

During the spring and summer of 2010, the price of silver was caught in a trading range of $17.00-19.50. But that all changed at the beginning of September. From a rally low of $17.50 last summer, the price has exploded to the $25 dollar area in barely two months. What happened?


End The FED. Get The Gold.

Posted: 17 Oct 2010 02:00 AM PDT

How can we end the Federal Reserve System? Prior to 2008, this question would have been entirely hypothetical. It is still entirely hypothetical, because the Federal Reserve System is in charge of monetary policy; the Congress of the United States is not. Certainly, the voters of the United States are not. Nevertheless, I wish to indulge myself in a completely hypothetical speculation.


Deconstructing Fifth Street Finance's Newsletter

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 07:47 PM PDT

Nicholas Marshi submits:

Yes, here’s another story about Fifth Street Finance (FSC), whose PR department is working overtime. FSC issues a monthly newsletter in months without an earnings release, and serves as reporting-lite to information hungry investors. It’s more marketing tool than disclosure because content is self selected, but we have to take a look. Our conclusion: despite all the cheer leading it’s something of a mixed bag.

New Business Activity: FSC is quiet on new business booked in the calendar IIIQ of 2010 (their fiscal fourth quarter), but claims $63.5mn in new deals originated just since October, and $51mn already funded. More deals will be booked later in the quarter as part of the much mentioned rush of deals aimed at getting ahead of new capital gains tax rates, but FSC did not speculate on the dollar amount involved. To put the new deal activity, FSC booked $56.3mn in new business in the quarter ended June 30,2010, so this is a good start from that perspective. However, no words on repayments either last quarter of to date this quarter, so it’s hard to know if the loan portfolio is growing or not. We suspect that it is.


Complete Story »


Jim?s Mailbox

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 07:46 PM PDT

View the original post at jsmineset.com... October 16, 2010 08:06 AM Hi Jim, Here is a quote from Sir Richard Russell today: "Is a Goldman forecast worth anything? We’re going to find out. Last Monday Goldman set $1650 as a 12-month target for gold." Now where have I read that number before? Is Blankfein reading JSMineset? But where did the "12 months" come from? CIGA Felix...


In The News Today

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 07:46 PM PDT

View the original post at jsmineset.com... October 16, 2010 08:06 AM Jim Sinclair's Commentary Wall Street blames homeowners for Bankruptcy Gate. The Banksters do not have one redeeming human quality, even the ones who claim they are doing the work of God. Jim Sinclair's Commentary Currency induced cost push inflation! Do you still not understand? OPEC Members Seek $100 Oil to Counter Dollar Weakness By Grant Smith and Fred Pals – Oct 15, 2010 6:32 AM PT The 13 percent decline in the Dollar Index since June has led some OPEC members to call for oil to rise to $100 a barrel. The U.S. currency's weakness means the "real price" of oil is about $20 less than current levels, Venezuelan Energy and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said after yesterday's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna. The group, which accounts for 40 percent of global crude output, left targets unchanged and called for greater adherence to quotas, which are ...


Why the U.S. Has Launched a New Financial World War

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 07:46 PM PDT

"SLV adds another 2 million ounces of silver. The Commitment of Traders shows no short covering. Ted Butler has a few things to say. OPEC wants $100 oil. Felix Zulauf talks about the end game for the current financial system. Jim Rickards talks about gold... and much, much more. " Yesterday in Gold and Silver The gold price didn't do much in Far East or early London trading during their Friday... and was down about five bucks by 8:00 a.m. in New York. But minutes before the Comex opened at 8:20 a.m... the dollar cratered by more than 30 basis points in a heart beat... and then turned on a dime, soaring 90 basis points. The dollar rally ended at precisely 2:00 p.m. Eastern time... with the bulk [75 basis points] of the rally occurring by 10:25 a.m. The gold price followed the gyrations of the dollar almost to the tick... with the low of the day [$1,361.40 spot] coming at 10:25 a.m. Eastern time. The high of the day [$1,385.20 spot] was also set in New York....


As Goes Iceland, so Goes the EU?.. Yes, There Is Gold at Fort Knox

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 07:46 PM PDT

As Goes Iceland, so Goes the EU? Saturday, October 16, 2010 – by Staff Report Iceland Pension Funds to Block $2 Billion Debt Relief Proposal ... Iceland's pension funds, which hold the bonds behind most of the country's mortgage debt, will try to block proposals to forgive as much as $2 billion in bad loans that the government says it is considering. A group that represents households demanding debt relief says lenders should write off up to 220 billion kronur ($1.99 billion) in mortgage loans to help the 39 percent of homeowners who are technically insolvent. The government this week said it may back the proposal as it responds to protests that drew bigger crowds than in the weeks before former Prime Minister Geir H. Haarde's administration was ousted in January 2009. "We don't support the ideas of the Interest Group of the Homes on general write-offs on loans," said Hrafn Magnusson, managing director of the Icelandic Pension Funds Association, whi...


Daily Dispatch: Weekend Edition - Oct 16, 2010

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 07:46 PM PDT

October 16, 2010 | www.CaseyResearch.com Weekend Edition Dear Reader, Welcome to the weekend edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch, a compilation of our favorite stories from the week for the time-stressed readers. Of course, if you want to read all of the Daily Dispatches from the week, you may do so in the archives at CaseyResearch.com. The Folly of Competitive Currency Devaluations By Doug Casey During our just-concluded Casey’s Gold & Resource Summit, Doug Casey spoke out about the folly that central bankers commit when they set out to deliberately weaken their currencies in the hope of gaining an advantage for their export goods and, therefore, for their economy. I dropped Doug a note asking him to quickly recap his thoughts in favor of a strong, versus weak, currency – his response follows… [*]A strong currency only hurts exports over the short run...


3 Reasons Rampant Inflation Coming As Soon As 2011

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 07:12 PM PDT

Are you ready for rampant inflation? Well, unfortunately it looks like it might be headed our way. The U.S. monetary base has absolutely exploded over the last couple of years, and all that money is starting to filter through into the hands of consumers. Commodity prices are absolutely skyrocketing, and it is inevitable that those price increases will show up in our stores at some point soon. The U.S. dollar has already been slipping substantially, and now there is every indication that the Fed is hungry to start printing even more money. All of these things are going to cause a rise in inflation. The only real question is how far down the road are we going to get before it happens. Words: 1096


The Gold Bubble Is About to Burst! Here's Why

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 07:12 PM PDT

The gold bubble is preparing to burst. Investors have endured panic for three years, and gold has rightfully gone up. Unfortunately for current gold investors, [however,] fear/panic is diminishing by the day and without that essential element, the big money will exit the trade...Those left carrying gold in their portfolios will be trying to come up with reasons to justify their holdings... [and there is considerable] confusion of rationale to [support] the precious metal's continued rise. Words: 606


Friday ETF Wrap-Up: UNG Tumbles, QQQQ Surges

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 07:06 PM PDT

ETF Database submits:

A rocky Friday trading session ended with mixed results for American equities as the Dow fell, the S&P 500 was flat, and the Nasdaq surged ahead. Commodity markets finally fell back down to earth as gold tumbled by $9/oz. and oil fell by 1.5% on the day. Meanwhile, the dollar managed to firm up in Friday trading as the greenback gained against most of the world’s major currencies helping to push the dollar index just shy of the 77 mark. This helped to send some sectors of the agricultural market back down; sugar prices fell by over 3% and were followed by similar losses in the cotton and cocoa markets as well. Investors did however scoop up shorter term bonds which saw their yields plummet despite a move out of longer-term issues by many investors.

Today’s session was influenced by a weak showing out of key market component General Electric (GE) which reported earnings earlier today. GE posted profits of 18 cents a share on weak revenues which helped the company to fall short of its 23 cents a share in profits last quarter. This bearish report helped to send the shares of the conglomerate down more than 5% on the day, one of the biggest losers in DJIA.


Complete Story »


Betting Big on Small Industrials

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 06:22 PM PDT

ab analytical servicesAlan Brochstein, CFA submits:

At the beginning of the year, I shared the entire list of holdings in my Top 20 Model Portfolio. The model has performed very well this year, up 29% compared to a 7% return for the S&P 500. The portfolio today looks much different than it did at the beginning of the year.

As I described then, we were set up to be value-oriented and with a pretty small market cap (median of $850mm). That's still the case, but the players are so different. At the beginning of the year, we had no Energy (one name now) or Technology (16% now) and were most overweight Consumer Discretionary (just 7% now) and Industrial. So far in 2010, we have sold out of 13 of the 20 names, including Aceto (ACET), C.R. Bard (BCR), Cardiac Science (CSCX), Dorman Products (DORM), Family Dollar (FDO), Foot Locker (FL), Hormel Foods (HRL), Martek Biosciences (MATK), National Presto (NPK), Somanetics (SMTS), Timberland (TBL), Titan International (TWI) and Volcano (VOLC). SMTS was acquired at a pretty big premium, one of our two acquisitions so far this year. Quite frankly, I think that the initial portfolio I shared is up slightly more than the actual return we have experienced, which is a bit disappointing to me. It sure would have been easier to let well enough alone!


Complete Story »


Opinions About Legal Tender

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 06:11 PM PDT

I know this question has been asked a hundred times on here with a variety of answers. Namely, why do gold and silver eagles have denominations? Some people think just for the heck of it, some say that it is still guaranteed even if pm's tank (if they tank that much I'll probably be living in a fallout shelter).

Anyway, I am reading this book on the history of gold and it claims that US legal tender cannot be owned by an individual but is the property of the US Govt.

Admittedly, I am a little spooked. Makes me happy l stick with old Europeans and low premium pesos. You know, I mean if I had gold.

Any thoughts?


Still No Reason to Own Bank Stocks

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 05:43 PM PDT

There’s not much (in the realm of the market) that makes me happier than seeing Bank of America (BAC) getting pummeled while the market surges. You don’t normally hear me preach on this blog, it’s pretty much useless information for most of you, if you’re reading this blog you probably have a similar trading style to me, or at least are looking to learn it.

But you know, sometimes you’ve just got to take your shots. I will continue to say this until the facts change, there is no reason to own the banks, zero, zilch, none. You think some of them are undervalued, be my guest, see where your accounts end up in 5 years holding these pieces of garbage. Don’t come to me and say that you are holding it in your long term account, that is a cop out and an excuse for poor P&L performance. There is an opportunity cost to holding these postions, every dollar you allocate to one of these stocks is a dollar you didn’t allocate to some other stock, or let sit in cash while the stock went down.


Complete Story »


Are Irish Taxpayers About To Bail Out Goldman? Is Peter Sutherland Stealing From His Own People To Give To The Vampire Squid?

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 05:07 PM PDT


It is deja vu all over again. To little media fanfare the dire financial situation in Ireland is nothing less than a repeat of the Lehman collapse in those dark days of September 2008. With the recent nationalization of half of the country's six big banks, and the blanket guarantee over the rest of them, the Irish government has effectively made sure that bondholders in all banks, even those which such as long insolvent Anglo Irish bank will be made whole by the long-suffering Irish taxpayers. And despite rumors of haircuts for at least sub debtholders, actual facts validating this possibility remain unseen. Which begs the question why is everyone in the world so terrified of taking mark to market losses on even a few billion in debt? Simple: as all of the world's banks, but Europe more so than anyone else, are now caught in the biggest circle jerk ever imaginable, with one entity's liabilities making up another's assets, which in turn are someone else's liabilities, and so forth in a MC Escher (or is that HR Giger?)-esque flow chart of the surreal (as can be seen here), even one dollar of write downs can spiral and affect tens if not hundreds of billions of downstream assets (and thus liabilities). Which explains why the ECB and everyone else in Europe is so intent on preventing a failed auction in Ireland (we previously disclosed that virtually every September auction of Irish bonds was purchased by the ECB, either directly and indirectly): should the banks that are on the hook actually validate their impairment, Europe is one step away from activating its own $1 trillion TARP package. Yet what is amusing is that inbetween the cracks of exclusively European-bank based senior and subordinated bondholders in such bankrupt banks as Anglo-Irish, a familiar name emerges: Goldman Sachs.

Yes, nested quietly inbetween the €4,034,756,880 in face value of Anglo Irish bondholders is the name that managed to pull the strings (via its puppet Hank Paulson) and get bailed out when AIG threatened to make Goldman management and investors insolvent. Is Goldman, via its UK-based Goldman Sachs Asset Management Intl. subsidiary, currently petitioning Brian Lenihan to be the only US-based bank to receive a direct bailout on its Anglo bond position? Or is it, as always behind the scenes, negotiating on behalf of 80 other European banks, among which Lombard Odier, Rothschild, and Deutsche, and achieve what it always succeeds in: escaping scott free, and stuffing taxpayers with the bill? We are confident Irish taxpayers, and drivers of cement trucks, would be fascinated in getting the correct answer.

Guido Fawkes, who managed to obtain the Anglo Irish bondholder list, shares the following commentary:

Anglo-Irish Bank did not represent a systemic risk to the Irish economy, it wasn’t a high street bank like AIB or the Bank of Ireland. If it had been allowed to go the way of Lehmans the only losers would have been shareholders and bondholders. The Irish state stepped in and nationalised a bank that was basically run by crooks lending to property speculators. The Irish people are taking losses that should rightly have been shouldered by bondholders.

Every child in Ireland is being bequeathed a huge debt at birth to protect the interests of foreign, mainly German, bondholders – why? Guido was once a bond trader, it was always understood that sometimes the bond issuer defaults. That is the risk investors take.

So why is Dublin’s political establishment so keen to protect foreign investors at the expense of future generations? Guido has obtained the list of foreign Anglo-Irish bondholders as at the close of business tonight. These are the people whom Dublin’s politicians really seem to care about.

Between them they hold Anglo-Irish bonds with a face-value of €4,034,756,880. Shouldn’t they take the hit rather than future generations of Irish taxpayers? Capitalism is a system of profit and loss, they took the risk of investing in Anglo-Irish Bank. Is the Irish government under pressure from the European Central Bank in Frankfurt to protect German investors?

Spot on question. And as the highlighted area in the chart below demonstrates, we would like to add Goldman Sachs to the list of bailoutees. Surely, few firms in the world deserve to be redeemed as much as god's little helpers.

Little else that can be added here... except for this amusing anecdote of another Goldman Sachs International Chairman, one Peter Sutherland, former Ireland attorney general and EU commissioner who just so happens was a chairman of British Petroleum (remember those guys?) previously. To wit from the Irish Times:

[Sutherland] and [recently heckled] Lenihan have remained in contact through the financial crisis. On one occasion, Sutherland visited Lenihan to tell him what a great job he thought he was doing and to say that Lenihan had the potential to be one of the great taoisigh of the 21st century. Lenihan was taken aback, he says.

Surely, this great son of Ireland, who obviously has Lenihan in his back pocket, is in active negotiation on behalf of his current employer, Goldman Sachs. Yet something tells us Mr. Sutherland will be the last person to share light on Goldman's twilight relationship vis-a-vis the Irish government.

One look-back Sutherland opposes is the banking inquiry. This is hardly surprising from a former chairman of AIB who appeared at the 1999 public inquiry into the Dirt tax evasion scandal.

“It would have been better not to have an inquiry at this time because we have limited resources and a diversion of those limited human resources into an ex post facto analysis of the past is far less important than remedying the immediate problem that we have now,” he says.

“It is a very difficult subject and to have all of these civil servants sitting in listening to bloody evidence on the past when they all know broadly what happened. We know what happened – we know it all. A political football is not what we need. We need to look to the future to get it right.”

Lack of revisionism is not too surprising coming from a person whose personal, and future, fortune, is based on the past generosity of American, and now Irish taxpayers. Because his wealth is certainly not due to his skill at anything related to his actual career:

Sutherland was also a board member at Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) during the financial meltdown when the UK bank collapsed into state arms after a frenetic, debt-fuelled growth. Of the bank’s 2007 role in the €71 billion acquisition of Dutch bank ABN Amro, the biggest ever banking takeover, Sutherland says it made “the mistake of buying at precisely the wrong time when the world was falling off the back of a bus”.

Perhaps instead of driving trucks full of cement into Parliament, Irish taxpayers can be a little more proactive, and ask one of their most respected "leaders" just on whose behalf he is working on in this latest bailout, which could easily be Ireland's last.

h/t Niall


The Clusterfuck Is Complete: Meet Those Most Hurt By The Earls' Squatting: Conejo Capital Partners... And Soon Millions Of Other "Soon To Be Ex" Home-Buyers

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 03:14 PM PDT


By now the 30 minutes of media fame of the Simi Valley's most (in)famous squatters - the Earls is running out. Yet the consequences of the their actions will resound for a long, long time. The victims: all those may have bought a house in a foreclosure auction, or any other form of existing property sale, without a "lis pendens" or other form of pre-existing legal action, will suddenly think twice about purchasing a home from a bank, or any other owner who may have had a mortgage on the property (now in MERS limbo), and simply end up unwinding the sale. The reason, as Conejo Capital Partners notes, is that nobody will now know when some other set of squatters, who may have owed as much as the Earls (almost a million), and did not contest their loan in good standing with a bank, decide to take the law into their own hands and move right back in. "The most innocent of all victims in this situation are the new buyers who had signed a contract to purchase the Mustang property. They are a family of 4 who are adopting their first child this month.  They had already funded their loan, spent money on appraisals, given notice at their current residence and were scheduled to take possession of 5893 Mustang Drive on Tuesday the 12th.  They have now cancelled the transaction and are scrambling to find a place to live as they will be homeless at the end of the month.  They are scared.... We especially feel for the children who are being subjected to this, and the new buyers who will be temporarily homeless as a result of these events. In all likelihood, there is no way for us to recover the damages we have suffered, this is no longer about winning; it is about what is right." And the tragedy in all of this, is that there is no clear guily party, as everyone is to blame: the banks, for rushing on the original sale to rake up the NINJA fees, the foreclosure "experts" for robosigning to accumulate the lowest possible cost basis on the subsequent MBS resale for the mortgage servicer, and the squatters, for deciding to take the law into their own hands, when suddenly there is no law. One thing is certain, this incident will propagate and will make existing home sale next to impossible. And yes, inventory will accumulate, but demand will plunge, resulting in a total collapse of the supply-demand equilibrium point, better known to those idiots a/k/a economic Ph.Ds, as price. But that is precisely what happens when in the pursut of material gains, by everyone, the rule of law is now completely trampled in the USA.

The following from Conejo Capital Partners is a must read, for a full perspective on the other side of the Earls' story. Because there always is an alterantive point of view.

OFFICIAL STATEMENT FROM CONEJO CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC REGARDING THE PROPERTY LOCATED AT 5893 MUSTANG DRIVE, SIMI VALLEY CA:

October 15, 2010

Given the extraordinary and illegal events orchestrated by the former homeowners and their attorney, we now feel compelled to share the facts regarding 5893 Mustang Drive.

On January 28, 2010 the property was sold thru a public auction at the trustee sale held at the Ventura County Court House.  Each month this same process occurs thousands of times across the nation as a method for banks to take back or dispose of the property that is not being paid for.  Conejo Capital was the “successful” bidder.   Shortly thereafter the former bank issued the title and it was legally recorded with Conejo Capital Partners LLC as the new owner of the property.   At the time all we knew about the property was that the former homeowners purchased it in 2001 for $539,000, and that they later refinanced it, pulling equity out, resulting in debt of roughly $1,000,000.  No “lis pendens” had been recorded indicating any disagreement or legal action pending regarding the property.  Had they done so before the auction, we would not have purchased this property.

After purchasing the property we found it to be occupied by the former home owners, Jim & Danielle Earl.  We were able to make contact with them and tried to understand their situation.  They expressed their opinion that they had been unlawfully foreclosed on by the bank.  Yet to our knowledge, the Earls had not initiated a lawsuit against any bank at that time, and as far as we know even today there is no pending lawsuit against any bank.  Any grievance they had would have been with their bank, not Conejo Capital Partners.  We tried to amicably discuss terms of a possible agreement which would have helped them make a comfortable transition but they were unwilling.  They gave us no choice other than having to start an action against them to gain physical possession of the property.

The unlawful detainer action (eviction trial) is something that normally takes roughly a month to complete, but they stretched it out to almost 6 months by filing two bankruptcies.  The first one was dismissed due to their failure to file the proper paper work and the second was probably dismissed as well.  At the unlawful detainer trial, the judge thoroughly reviewed all of the facts of the case and ruled in favor of Conejo Capital Partners LLC and ordered the Earl’s to vacate the property.  We were also awarded a monetary judgment in the amount of just over $27,000 (fair market rental value for the time they illegally occupied the property).  The Earls appealed the decision but their appeal was dismissed by the court because they failed to pay the court its required appellate costs.    The Earls’ attorney sent us threatening correspondence and amazingly described his plan to a federal court judge in San Francisco that he planned to undertake “self help” to retake possession of the Mustang property illegally.  The federal judge denied their motion for an injunction and ruled that the "Plaintiffs have offered no authority in support of this extraordinary concept (of “self help" seizure of the Mustang property).

On July 2, 2010 the Ventura County Sheriff and an agent of ours went to the property to complete the court-ordered eviction.  There, they found that the Earls had departed but  (based upon their attorney’s advice), the Earls left all of the personal belongings, in the Mustang house including all of their furniture, cars and the family dog.  This extraordinary tactic caused us another 2 week delay because we were forced to follow the legal guidelines in dealing with the situation.  The Earls contacted us at the very last minute before we would have had legal right to dispose of the property and we allowed them to retrieve it at no additional cost to them.

Once we had gained possession of the Mustang Property, we spent a considerable amount of money remodeling it.  When the remodeling was complete, we put it on the market for sale.  We secured a buyer and were scheduled to close escrow on Monday October 11th.  On Saturday October 9th the Earls and their attorney followed thru with their previous threats and took the law into their own hands.  They hired a locksmith to break into the Mustang home.  They had arranged to have t.v. news cameras filming their actions, and then proceeded to hold a press conference stating that they were within their rights and that we (Conejo Capital Partners) had somehow violated the law.  All along the Simi Valley Police Department sat idle and refused to get involved no matter how much proof was offered supporting our legal rights and position.  We were told that we needed to resolve it in front of a judge even though it had already been decided.   In the days immediately following, the same attorney has done this again in Escondido and Newport Beach (the latter time both the attorney and his clients were arrested).  It is amazing that this can happen in a nation founded on and based upon law.  It is truly sad that all across America so many people claim to be the “victim” rather than taking personal responsibility for their actions.

It needs to be noted that Conejo Capital Partners LLC did not take the home from the Earls, their bank did.  We simply purchased the home from the bank in a legal manner and then had to deal with the situation that had been created.  Conejo Capital Parnters LLC is not a large Wall Street bank, we represent a group of regular people who are hard working citizens that pay their bills and abide by the law.   We have approached the Earls on many occasions in an attempt to see if we could find an amicable resolution but in each case have been denied.   We offered to waive our monetary judgment in simple exchange for confidence that we wouldn’t find ourselves wrapped up in litigation that ultimately results in everyone losing.   Although the former homeowner had roughly $1,000,000 in debt against the home, both they and their attorney have said in recent interviews that they feel like they don’t owe anything and in fact are owed damages as well.

The Earls’ attorney announced proudly that he “chose” the Earls because he needed to protect the new buyers from being defrauded by us.  It is extremely unfortunate that he is putting others in jeopardy as a way to create notoriety for himself.   The facts about Mr. Pines life are well documented and we urge you to do your homework on him and decide about his motives for yourself.

The most innocent of all victims in this situation are the new buyers who had signed a contract to purchase the Mustang property.  They are a family of 4 who are adopting their first child this month.  They had already funded their loan, spent money on appraisals, given notice at their current residence and were scheduled to take possession of 5893 Mustang Drive on Tuesday the 12th.  They have now cancelled the transaction and are scrambling to find a place to live as they will be homeless at the end of the month.  They are scared.

This is a terribly unfortunate situation to be involved in, one that we wouldn’t wish for anyone to experience.  We especially feel for the children who are being subjected to this, and the new buyers who will be temporarily homeless as a result of these events.   In all likelihood, there is no way for us to recover the damages we have suffered, this is no longer about winning; it is about what is right.  We didn’t ask for a fight; it was brought to us.  Now with no other options, we feel compelled to do everything in our power without regard to cost or time to protect ourselves  and insure this does not happen to others.

Conejo Capital Partners LLC


h/t Robert


The Infinite Improbability Drive

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 02:46 PM PDT

It seems as if major market indices are currently powered by the famous Infinite Improbability Drive (the Heart of Gold in Douglas Adam's 'The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy' novels); the improbable odds against closing higher ... Read More...



Inside the Flash Crash Report

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 02:16 PM PDT


Pam Martens points out that in patching up May 6th's market meltdown by breaking certains trades, “busts” only applied to trades occurring between 2:40 p.m. and 3 p.m. when the stock had moved 60% or more from its 2:40 p.m. price.  "The busts that were allowed covered 5.5 million shares and two-thirds of these trades had been executed at less than $1.00...  half of the share volume in these bizarre trades came from just two firms and half the time they were exclusively trading with each other."  The report - amazingly - never names these firms which had their own bad trades undone by that controversial decision that left average investors with large losses. - Ilene 

Inside the Flash Crash Report

By PAM MARTENS, originally published at CounterPunch

high frequency trading The breathlessly awaited government report that promised to shore up public confidence by explaining why the stock market briefly plunged 998 points on May 6, with hundreds of stocks momentarily losing 60 per cent or more of their value, was released last Friday, October 1.  Its neatly crafted finger-pointing to a small Kansas mutual fund firm which has been around since 1937, was immediately embraced as mystery solved by the stalwarts of the corporate press.  This was done with only slightly less zeal than bestowed on the story of Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction spun out of the George W. Bush administration.

The New York Times headlined with “Single Sale Worth $4.1 Billion Led to Flash Crash.” The Washington Post went with “How One Automated Trade Led to Stock Market Flash Crash.” The Wall Street Journal led with “How a Trading Algorithm Went Awry.”  Hundreds of similar headlines followed in similarly expensive media real estate.  But as with the rush to war on bogus intel, the corporate press may be further damaging its credibility with the American people by ignoring the dangerous market structure that emerges in a closer reading of this report.

The so-called Flash Crash report was the product of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and consists of 104 pages of data that is unintelligible to most Americans, including the media that are so confidently reporting on it.  It names no names, including the firm it is fingering as the key culprit in setting off the crash.  Earlier media reports say the firm is the mutual fund manager, Waddell and Reed, and Waddell has conceded that it made a large trade that day to hedge its positions in its mutual funds which total $70 billion according to its web site.

As the official report goes, Waddell set off a computerized algorithm to sell 75,000 contracts of the E-mini futures contract that is based on the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index and trades at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.  At roughly $55,000 per contract, the total amount Waddell was seeking to sell to hedge its mutual fund stock positions was $4.125 billion.

But here’s where the official theory comes apart: fourteen days after the Flash Crash, Terrence Duffy, the Executive Chairman of the CME Group which owns the Chicago Mercantile Exchange testified before the U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on Securities, Insurance, and Investment of the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban affairs that “Total volume in the June E-mini S&P futures on May 6th was 5.7 million contracts, with approximately 1.6 million or 28 per cent transacted during the period from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. Central Time.”  In other words, the government investigators are suggesting that a trade that represented 1 per cent of the day’s volume in a futures contract in Chicago and less than 5 per cent of contracts traded in the pivotal 1 to 2 p.m. time frame in Chicago (2 to 3 p.m. in New York) caused stocks in the cash market to plunge to a penny.

Of the 104 pages of the report, there is one sentence that is noteworthy:

“Detailed analysis of trade and order data revealed that one large internalizer (as a seller) and one large market maker (as a buyer) were party to over 50 per cent of the share volume of broken trades, and for more than half of this volume they were counterparties to each other (i.e., 25 per cent of the broken trade share volume was between this particular seller and buyer).” 

stock market Broken trades or “busts” (as the street refers to them) were only allowed for trades occurring between 2:40 p.m. and 3 p.m. (New York time) and where the stock had moved 60 per cent or more from its 2:40 p.m. value.  This was an extremely controversial decision and left small investors with heavy losses of 30 to 59 per cent with nowhere to turn.  The busts that were allowed covered 5.5 million shares and two-thirds of these trades had been executed at less than $1.00, some for as little as a penny.  We now learn from this one sentence on page 66 of the Flash Crash report that half of the share volume in these bizarre trades came from just two firms and half the time they were exclusively trading with each other. Let me state this another way: two trading firms were predominantly involved in handing investors’ losses of 60 per cent or more in their stocks on May 6 but a staid old mutual fund company trading an S&P futures contract in Chicago has been fingered as the culprit of the Flash Crash.

An “internalizer” is a benign way for the SEC to acknowledge that the big brokerage firms serving retail customers (which have morphed into investment banks and commercial banks as well) are running their own secretive, quasi stock exchanges inside their firms.  They are matching their retail customers’ buy and sell orders with no public transparency.  Only after the trades are matched out of public view are the trades then printed at an exchange.  Clearly, anyone carefully reading the above sentence from the report wants to know the names of these two entities.  But in the report they remain nameless.

Another key area that gets short shrift in the report is quote stuffing, a practice by high frequency traders to blast out millions of bids to buy and offers to sell specific stocks, only to cancel them fractions of a second later.  Mary Schapiro, Chair of the SEC, told the Economic Club of New York the following on September 7:

“These high frequency trading firms can generate more than a million trades in a single day and now represent more than 50 per cent of equity market volume. And many firms will generate 90 or more orders for each executed trade. Stated another way: a firm that trades one million times per day may submit 90 million or more orders that are cancelled.”

What’s the science behind cancelling 90 orders to get one trade done?  If you blast out millions of orders in microseconds, then cancel them just as fast, you are confusing your competition as to what your true intention is.  Your competition learns from this and fires a similar volley back at you.  (Left in the blaze of digital ticker tape is the average investor, who doesn’t own a trading algorithm.) Questions are being asked as to whether some of these practices may constitute market manipulation, similar to painting the tape, where the sole purpose of the order is to mislead the market.  If retail stockbrokers tried doing this for the small investor, they would be expeditiously led off in handcuffs.

Four days before the official Flash Crash report was released by the CFTC and SEC, Nanex, a creator and developer of a streaming datafeed that brings trading prices to workstations in real-time, put out its own impressive analysis of the Flash Crash. Among numerous areas covered, Nanex highlighted significant quote stuffing that occurred on May 6.  (The full report is available at www.Nanex.net) Among the findings of Nanex:

“While searching previous days for similarities to the time period at the start of the May 6th drop, we found a very close match starting at 11:27:46.100 on April 28, 2010 -- just a week and a day before May 6. We observed it had the same pattern -- high, saturating quote traffic, then approximately 500ms later a sudden burst of trades on the eMini and the top ETF's [Exchange Traded Funds] at the prevailing bid prices, leading to a delay in the NYSE quote and a sudden collapse in prices. The drop only lasted a minute, but the parallels between the start of the drop and the one on May 6 are many.”

A potential implication of the Nanex report is that by blasting out bogus quote data, the data feeds carrying stock prices to investors could be slowed down, giving an edge to traders who understand what’s actually happening. 

Mr. Duffy of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange had voiced a similar area of potential concern taking place in the futures market on May 6 in his Senate testimony, noting that 3 million system messages occurred around the trading meltdown.  According to Mr. Duffy, the exchange has “implemented automated controls which monitor for excessive new order, order cancel and order cancel/replace messaging. If a session exceeds a designated message per second threshold over a three-second window, subsequent messaging will be rejected until the average message-per-session rate falls below this threshold.”

I asked Eric Scott Hunsader of Nanex for his thoughts on the Flash Crash report, given that quote stuffing was glossed over.  Mr. Hunsader said that he believed the report to be “riddled with inconsistencies, makes conclusions without supporting evidence, and wastes precious time on illustrations that end up telling us nothing we didn't already know. Looking for the cause of the xFlash Crash using one-minute snapshot data is like trying to find the Higgs boson with a 10x microscope.”  Mr. Hunsader goes on to note the “NYSE's admission of the delay we discovered in June; however, the executive summary tells us regarding this delay: ‘Our findings indicate that none of these factors played a dominant role on May 6.’ Later in the report, the findings presented in making that determination are only anecdotal: we would have expected to see a percentage break down of the traders affected, for example.”

The official report does not break out the wealth destruction to the small investor on May 6, but Ms. Schapiro shared that information on September 7 with the Economic Club of New York:  “A staggering total of more than $2 billion in individual investor stop loss orders is estimated to have been triggered during the half hour between 2:30 and 3 p.m. on May 6. As a hypothetical illustration, if each of those orders were executed at a very conservative estimate of 10 per cent less than the closing price, then those individual investors suffered losses of more than $200 million compared to the closing price on that day.” 

A stop-loss order is the dull Boy Scout knife with which the small investor attempts to protect himself from the star wars gang.  It is an order placed with an unlimited time frame that sits in the system and says if my stock trades down to this level, sell me out.  Unfortunately, most of these orders are placed as market orders rather than indicating a specific “limit” price that the investor will accept.  (That alternative order is called a stop-loss limit order.)  Stop-loss market orders go off on the next tick after the designated price is reached. In a liquid and orderly market, that should be only a fraction away from the last trade.  On the day of the Flash Crash during that pivotal half hour, the next tick was frequently 10 to 60 per cent away from the last trade.

Quite contrary to restoring confidence to investors, the Flash Crash report has unmasked what many of us have suspected but couldn’t prove until this report proved it for us.  While the fancy dressers in the Wall Street investment banks were absorbed in building warehouses of subprime mortgage fireworks that dazzled right up until the moment they blew up the street, techies in blue jeans were building star wars trading technologies in the bowels of Wall Street with a sole set of marching orders: beat the competition. 

The marching orders to make these trading programs transparent, friendly to the small investor, fair and orderly, were noticeably absent from the job assignment.  And as the new technology proliferated, showing ever greater speed, opacity, and fragmentation, the regulators stood down as the abuses mushroomed.  The regulators were cowed by the same threat that Wall Street has used successfully in gutting regulation of derivatives and repealing the Glass-Steagall Act: if you don’t let us do it, we’ll move our trading business to another country. (In my early days on Wall Street, I was similarly threatened by a branch manager to sell a dubious limited partnership to my clients.  He said, “If you don’t, some other broker will.”  I smiled and gently nodded in anticipation of just that eventuality.  The majority of those late 1980s limited partnerships blew up, taking broker careers and firm reputations with them.  The mantra remains unchanged today on Wall Street: push short term profits and ignore long-term reputational risk to the firm and loss of investors’ savings and confidence.)

A search of the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office turns up thousands of patents with star wars diagrams of computers linked in incomprehensible ways to replace human traders.  The patents are held by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and numerous other firms that were bailed out by the U.S. taxpayer for their last innovation that  attempted to spin subprime mortgages into gold.

This is an abstract for a patent held by ITG Software:

“A computer-implemented system and method for executing trades of financial securities according to a combination passive/aggressive trading strategy that reliably executes trades of lists of securities or blocks of a single security within a desired time frame while taking advantage of dynamic market movement to realize price improvement for the trade within the desired time frame. A passive trading agent executes trades at advantageous prices by floating portions of the order at the bid or ask to maximize exposure to the inside market and attract market orders. An aggressive agent opportunistically takes liquidity as it arises, setting discretionary prices in accordance with historical trading data of the specified security.” 

Does this sound like something the small investor could compete with?

The market is also dangerously fragmented. SEC Chair Schapiro describes it this way, throwing out the confidence-draining words “dark pools” with the casualness that she might utter, “tea anyone?”  The regulated New York Stock Exchange, which commanded an 80 per cent market share just five years ago, today “executes approximately 26 per cent of the volume in its listed stocks. The remaining volume is split among more than 10 public exchanges, more than 30 dark pools, and more than 200 internalizing broker-dealers. Indeed, today, nearly 30 per cent of volume in U.S.-listed equities is executed in venues that do not display their liquidity or make it generally available to the public. The percentage executed by these dark, non-public markets is increasing nearly every month.” 

And exactly what has all this star wars trading innovation on Wall Street done for the average investor?  According to the Wall Street Journal, the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index “has fallen at an annualized rate of 3 per cent a year over the past 10 years, including dividends and controlling for inflation.”  The index itself, closing last week at 1146, is back to the level it set in July of 1998; 12 years of believing in the illusion that Wall Street planned to share its wealth.

Pam Martens worked on Wall Street for 21 years; she has no security position, long or short, in any company mentioned in this article.  She writes on public interest issues from New Hampshire. 

More on the Flash Crash by Pam Martens:

The May 6 Stock Crash Revisited, May 12, 2010

http://www.counterpunch.org/martens05122010.html

SEC Admits to Inadequate Tools to Conduct Investigation, May 17, 2010

http://www.counterpunch.org/martens05172010.html

Scientists, Secrets and Wall Street’s Lost $4 Trillion, September 27, 2010

http://www.counterpunch.org/martens09272010.html

Pic credit: Jr. Deputy Accountant 


Markets now just a function of the dollar, Art Cashin tells King World News

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 12:50 PM PDT

8:52p ET Saturday, October 16, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Zero Hedge's Tyler Durden again today takes an interview at King World News -- this time with CNBC commentator and UBS executive Art Cashin -- as the text for his own market commentary. Zero Hedge puts it this way: "Through its endless meddling, intervention, and manipulation over the past two years, the Fed has essentially broken the market."

That sounds pretty close to what participants at GATA's Washington conference 2 1/2 years ago heard: "There are no markets anymore, just interventions":

http://www.gata.org/node/6242

The Zero Hedge introduction to the King World News interview with Cashin can be found here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/art-cashin-explains-why-stock-market-br...

You can listen to the interview itself here:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/10/16_...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy Resource Goes Into Production
at Ulaan Ovoo Coal Mine in Mongolia

A commission appointed by Mongolia's Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy has conducted the final permit inspection at Prophecy Resource Corp.'s Ulaan Ovoo mine site and has instructed the company to begin coal production. Prophecy Resource (TSX.V: PCY) has begun production of its first 10,000 tonnes of coal as a trial run of supply to be taken by rail to electric power stations in Darkhan and Erdenet, Mongolia's second and third largest cities after the capital, Ulaanbaatar. The company is the second-ever Canadian mining company to get a permit to mine in Mongolia and start production there.

For the company's complete announcement, please visit:

http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_oct14.php



Join GATA here:

The Silver Summit
Thursday-Friday, October 21-22, 2010
Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington
http://www.silversummit.com/

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 27-30, 2010
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
http://www.neworleansconference.com/redirect.php?page=index.html&source_...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Sona Resources Expects Positive Cash Flow from Blackdome,
Plans Aggressive Exploration of Elizabeth Gold Property

On May 18, 2010, Sona Resources Corp. (TSXV: SYS, Frankfurt: QS7) announced the release of a preliminary economic assessment for gold production at its flagship Blackdome and Elizabeth properties in British Columbia.

Sona Executive Chairman Nick Ferris says: "We view this as a baseline scenario for gold production. The project is highly sensitive to the price of gold. A conservative valuation of gold at $1,093 per ounce would result in a pre-tax cash flow of $54 million. The assessment indicates that underground mining at the two sites would recover 183,600 ounces of gold and 62,500 ounces of silver. Permitting and infrastructure are already in place for processing ore at the Blackdome mill, with a 200-tonne per day throughput over an eight-year mine life. Our near-term goal is to continue aggressive exploration at Elizabeth and develop a million-plus-ounce gold resource, commencing production in 2013."

For complete information on Sona Resources Corp. please visit: www.SonaResources.com

A Canadian gold opportunity ready for growth



Liam Halligan: China's not the villain if the West goes for monetary debasement

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 11:50 AM PDT

By Liam Halligan
The Telegraph, London
Saturday, October 16, 2010

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8068335/Chinas-n...

Last weekend's "currency war summit" ended in dismal failure. Future historians will wince.

The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington are supposed to generate some kind of resolution. Instead, all we got was posturing and a slew of pious speeches saying that "co-operation is crucial".

What is now clear is that some of the world's leading economies are deliberately debasing their currencies in order to make their exports more competitive and lower the real value of the massive debts they owe the rest of the world.

... Dispatch continues below ...



ADVERTISEMENT

Sona Resources Expects Positive Cash Flow from Blackdome,
Plans Aggressive Exploration of Elizabeth Gold Property

On May 18, 2010, Sona Resources Corp. (TSXV: SYS, Frankfurt: QS7) announced the release of a preliminary economic assessment for gold production at its flagship Blackdome and Elizabeth properties in British Columbia.

Sona Executive Chairman Nick Ferris says: "We view this as a baseline scenario for gold production. The project is highly sensitive to the price of gold. A conservative valuation of gold at $1,093 per ounce would result in a pre-tax cash flow of $54 million. The assessment indicates that underground mining at the two sites would recover 183,600 ounces of gold and 62,500 ounces of silver. Permitting and infrastructure are already in place for processing ore at the Blackdome mill, with a 200-tonne per day throughput over an eight-year mine life. Our near-term goal is to continue aggressive exploration at Elizabeth and develop a million-plus-ounce gold resource, commencing production in 2013."

For complete information on Sona Resources Corp. please visit: www.SonaResources.com

A Canadian gold opportunity ready for growth



Tempers are rising, as are protectionist sentiments. Across the globe, governments are talking about "aggressive tariff barriers" and "trade retaliation" -- language that hasn't been used by mainstream peacetime politicians since the mid-1930s.

Yet instead of knuckling-down and addressing the urgent task of building some kind of an agreement to contain a fully-blown currency conflict, world leaders last Sunday urged the IMF only to "study the issues", and "play a stronger role in monitoring how the policies of each member state affects the others."

This was a pathetic response. The concluding statement of the fund's policy-setting committee meekly pledged to "work toward a more balanced pattern of global growth, recognising the responsibilities of surplus and deficit countries."

To his credit, even the IMF's own managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, labelled such language "ineffective." The governments controlling the IMF simply kicked the tough conversations into the long grass -- postponing them until the Seoul G20 summit in early November at the earliest.

While policy at the global level is non-existent, the US and several other "advanced" nations, including the UK, are in the midst of a radical policy experiment that is about to get even more extreme. For most of last week, the dollar fell further on speculation that the Federal Reserve, having already bought $1,700 billion (L1,062 billion) of dodgy mortgage-backed securities and government bonds with newly-created money, will soon indulge in further "quantitative easing."

As a result, the US currency hit record lows against the Chinese yuan, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. And, of course, that is just what America wants.

Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, continued to fuel speculation that the US is about to unleash hundreds of billions of dollars more QE money. "There would appear -- all else being equal -- to be a case for further action," he said in a speech on Friday. Yet America's now-blatant policy of trying to print its way out of trouble, a ploy being copied by others, is far from proven and could actually make things worse: QE on the scale now being proposed has never been tried. It is beyond the realms even of economic theory.

If banks in the US and elsewhere remain reluctant to lend, Western economies will stay in the doldrums and could tip back into recession. On top of that, there is a very real danger that renewed money printing drives up the price of oil and other commodities -- imposing serious damage on the QE nations, most of whom are importers of such key economic inputs.

Crude is above $80 a barrel. With the price of copper and tin soaring, the London Metal Exchange price index last week hit a two-year high. Commodity prices are strong -- and rising -- even though Western demand remains sluggish because of economic weakness. There are, of course, solid reasons why the price of oil, metals, and other tangibles should stay firm -- not least the ongoing rapacious demand among emerging nations in Asia and elsewhere as they industrialise, build more infrastructure and their energy-hungry middle classes continue to grow. On the supply side too, with the credit crunch having starved the capital-intensive extractive industries of cash in recent years, there are fewer mining and drilling projects about to come on stream.

But something else is going on. International investors, deeply alarmed by the Western world's wildly expansionary monetary policy and the related destruction in the value of paper currency, are starting to park their wealth in assets "that governments can't print more of." The obvious manifestation of this is the price of gold, which hit another record on Thursday. Silver has also just reached a 30-year high, and is set to scale $25 per ounce.

Aside from precious metals, though, the nightmare scenario is that QE leads to a spike in the price of oil and other commodity imports needed to keep the Western world running -- as a result of investors using such assets as an "anti-debasement hedge." There are signs this is starting to happen. If the trend becomes stronger, and speculators pile in via commodity-related price indices and "exchange-traded funds," the result could be a commodity price run-up that shatters the already anaemic Western recovery.

Were that to happen, central banks such as the Fed would huff and puff, spouting populist nonsense about "clamping down on speculation." But the reality is that high, and even spiralling, commodity prices are an absolutely rational response to QE. Such price rises would, in fact, cause a decline in real incomes in the very countries printing the money -- seeing as commodities and other tangibles are inputs into the goods and services we buy. These deeply counterproductive QE outcomes could very easily come to pass. Yet across the Western world, among politicians and media commentators, there is barely a whimper of protest about this reckless and unprecedented policy.

Attention is focused instead on China and its "overvalued currency." Like a pantomime villain, the People's Republic is blamed for the West's economic woes. In August, America's trade deficit surged to $46 billion, its deficit with China alone hitting a record $28 billion. But to listen to most US politicians, you'd think such numbers had nothing to do with the fact that China makes a lot of goods the world wants and US exports in many sectors have become uncompetitive.

Not least due to America's QE, the yuan has appreciated around 3 percent against the dollar since June -- when Beijing signalled an end to its "currency peg" regime. However, with crucial mid-term elections looming in early November, US legislators and union bosses are urging President Obama to take tougher action, blaming "Chinese trade distortions" for the loss of "millions of US jobs."

China is hitting back. A government spokesman argued on Friday that it's "totally wrong to blame the yuan for the Sino-US trade imbalance" and urged America not to make China its "scapegoat." Imminent US legislation imposing retaliatory tariffs on China is almost certain to breach World Trade Organisation rules. Unless this standoff is defused, it can only end badly.

So expect "currency manipulation" to be top of the agenda at the G20 summit. But don't expect much in terms of resolution. As South Korea's President Lee Myung-Bak says: "If the world fails to reach agreement on foreign exchange policy and insists on its own interests, it will bring about trade protectionism and cause very difficult problems to the global economy". Then again, South Korea has itself intervened heavily in currency markets in a bid to boost its exports.

The QE end-game is impossible to foresee. While the dollar is falling for now, if commodities balloon then correct sharply the dollar itself could spike. Having said that, the long-term trajectory of the US currency must surely be down. The irony is that by implementing yet more QE, America may not do itself much good. It could succeed, though, in imposing chaos on the rest of the world.

* * *

Join GATA here:

The Silver Summit
Thursday-Friday, October 21-22, 2010
Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington
http://www.silversummit.com/

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 27-30, 2010
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
http://www.neworleansconference.com/redirect.php?page=index.html&source_...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy Resource Goes Into Production
at Ulaan Ovoo Coal Mine in Mongolia

A commission appointed by Mongolia's Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy has conducted the final permit inspection at Prophecy Resource Corp.'s Ulaan Ovoo mine site and has instructed the company to begin coal production. Prophecy Resource (TSX.V: PCY) has begun production of its first 10,000 tonnes of coal as a trial run of supply to be taken by rail to electric power stations in Darkhan and Erdenet, Mongolia's second and third largest cities after the capital, Ulaanbaatar. The company is the second-ever Canadian mining company to get a permit to mine in Mongolia and start production there.

For the company's complete announcement, please visit:

http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_oct14.php



Liam Halligan: China's not the villain if the West goes for monetary debasement

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 11:50 AM PDT

By Liam Halligan
The Telegraph, London
Saturday, October 16, 2010

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8068335/Chinas-n...

Last weekend's "currency war summit" ended in dismal failure. Future historians will wince.

The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington are supposed to generate some kind of resolution. Instead, all we got was posturing and a slew of pious speeches saying that "co-operation is crucial".

What is now clear is that some of the world's leading economies are deliberately debasing their currencies in order to make their exports more competitive and lower the real value of the massive debts they owe the rest of the world.

... Dispatch continues below ...



ADVERTISEMENT

Sona Resources Expects Positive Cash Flow from Blackdome,
Plans Aggressive Exploration of Elizabeth Gold Property

On May 18, 2010, Sona Resources Corp. (TSXV: SYS, Frankfurt: QS7) announced the release of a preliminary economic assessment for gold production at its flagship Blackdome and Elizabeth properties in British Columbia.

Sona Executive Chairman Nick Ferris says: "We view this as a baseline scenario for gold production. The project is highly sensitive to the price of gold. A conservative valuation of gold at $1,093 per ounce would result in a pre-tax cash flow of $54 million. The assessment indicates that underground mining at the two sites would recover 183,600 ounces of gold and 62,500 ounces of silver. Permitting and infrastructure are already in place for processing ore at the Blackdome mill, with a 200-tonne per day throughput over an eight-year mine life. Our near-term goal is to continue aggressive exploration at Elizabeth and develop a million-plus-ounce gold resource, commencing production in 2013."

For complete information on Sona Resources Corp. please visit: www.SonaResources.com

A Canadian gold opportunity ready for growth



Tempers are rising, as are protectionist sentiments. Across the globe, governments are talking about "aggressive tariff barriers" and "trade retaliation" -- language that hasn't been used by mainstream peacetime politicians since the mid-1930s.

Yet instead of knuckling-down and addressing the urgent task of building some kind of an agreement to contain a fully-blown currency conflict, world leaders last Sunday urged the IMF only to "study the issues", and "play a stronger role in monitoring how the policies of each member state affects the others."

This was a pathetic response. The concluding statement of the fund's policy-setting committee meekly pledged to "work toward a more balanced pattern of global growth, recognising the responsibilities of surplus and deficit countries."

To his credit, even the IMF's own managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, labelled such language "ineffective." The governments controlling the IMF simply kicked the tough conversations into the long grass -- postponing them until the Seoul G20 summit in early November at the earliest.

While policy at the global level is non-existent, the US and several other "advanced" nations, including the UK, are in the midst of a radical policy experiment that is about to get even more extreme. For most of last week, the dollar fell further on speculation that the Federal Reserve, having already bought $1,700 billion (L1,062 billion) of dodgy mortgage-backed securities and government bonds with newly-created money, will soon indulge in further "quantitative easing."

As a result, the US currency hit record lows against the Chinese yuan, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. And, of course, that is just what America wants.

Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, continued to fuel speculation that the US is about to unleash hundreds of billions of dollars more QE money. "There would appear -- all else being equal -- to be a case for further action," he said in a speech on Friday. Yet America's now-blatant policy of trying to print its way out of trouble, a ploy being copied by others, is far from proven and could actually make things worse: QE on the scale now being proposed has never been tried. It is beyond the realms even of economic theory.

If banks in the US and elsewhere remain reluctant to lend, Western economies will stay in the doldrums and could tip back into recession. On top of that, there is a very real danger that renewed money printing drives up the price of oil and other commodities -- imposing serious damage on the QE nations, most of whom are importers of such key economic inputs.

Crude is above $80 a barrel. With the price of copper and tin soaring, the London Metal Exchange price index last week hit a two-year high. Commodity prices are strong -- and rising -- even though Western demand remains sluggish because of economic weakness. There are, of course, solid reasons why the price of oil, metals, and other tangibles should stay firm -- not least the ongoing rapacious demand among emerging nations in Asia and elsewhere as they industrialise, build more infrastructure and their energy-hungry middle classes continue to grow. On the supply side too, with the credit crunch having starved the capital-intensive extractive industries of cash in recent years, there are fewer mining and drilling projects about to come on stream.

But something else is going on. International investors, deeply alarmed by the Western world's wildly expansionary monetary policy and the related destruction in the value of paper currency, are starting to park their wealth in assets "that governments can't print more of." The obvious manifestation of this is the price of gold, which hit another record on Thursday. Silver has also just reached a 30-year high, and is set to scale $25 per ounce.

Aside from precious metals, though, the nightmare scenario is that QE leads to a spike in the price of oil and other commodity imports needed to keep the Western world running -- as a result of investors using such assets as an "anti-debasement hedge." There are signs this is starting to happen. If the trend becomes stronger, and speculators pile in via commodity-related price indices and "exchange-traded funds," the result could be a commodity price run-up that shatters the already anaemic Western recovery.

Were that to happen, central banks such as the Fed would huff and puff, spouting populist nonsense about "clamping down on speculation." But the reality is that high, and even spiralling, commodity prices are an absolutely rational response to QE. Such price rises would, in fact, cause a decline in real incomes in the very countries printing the money -- seeing as commodities and other tangibles are inputs into the goods and services we buy. These deeply counterproductive QE outcomes could very easily come to pass. Yet across the Western world, among politicians and media commentators, there is barely a whimper of protest about this reckless and unprecedented policy.

Attention is focused instead on China and its "overvalued currency." Like a pantomime villain, the People's Republic is blamed for the West's economic woes. In August, America's trade deficit surged to $46 billion, its deficit with China alone hitting a record $28 billion. But to listen to most US politicians, you'd think such numbers had nothing to do with the fact that China makes a lot of goods the world wants and US exports in many sectors have become uncompetitive.

Not least due to America's QE, the yuan has appreciated around 3 percent against the dollar since June -- when Beijing signalled an end to its "currency peg" regime. However, with crucial mid-term elections looming in early November, US legislators and union bosses are urging President Obama to take tougher action, blaming "Chinese trade distortions" for the loss of "millions of US jobs."

China is hitting back. A government spokesman argued on Friday that it's "totally wrong to blame the yuan for the Sino-US trade imbalance" and urged America not to make China its "scapegoat." Imminent US legislation imposing retaliatory tariffs on China is almost certain to breach World Trade Organisation rules. Unless this standoff is defused, it can only end badly.

So expect "currency manipulation" to be top of the agenda at the G20 summit. But don't expect much in terms of resolution. As South Korea's President Lee Myung-Bak says: "If the world fails to reach agreement on foreign exchange policy and insists on its own interests, it will bring about trade protectionism and cause very difficult problems to the global economy". Then again, South Korea has itself intervened heavily in currency markets in a bid to boost its exports.

The QE end-game is impossible to foresee. While the dollar is falling for now, if commodities balloon then correct sharply the dollar itself could spike. Having said that, the long-term trajectory of the US currency must surely be down. The irony is that by implementing yet more QE, America may not do itself much good. It could succeed, though, in imposing chaos on the rest of the world.

* * *

Join GATA here:

The Silver Summit
Thursday-Friday, October 21-22, 2010
Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington
http://www.silversummit.com/

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 27-30, 2010
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
http://www.neworleansconference.com/redirect.php?page=index.html&source_...

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Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

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Prophecy Resource Goes Into Production
at Ulaan Ovoo Coal Mine in Mongolia

A commission appointed by Mongolia's Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy has conducted the final permit inspection at Prophecy Resource Corp.'s Ulaan Ovoo mine site and has instructed the company to begin coal production. Prophecy Resource (TSX.V: PCY) has begun production of its first 10,000 tonnes of coal as a trial run of supply to be taken by rail to electric power stations in Darkhan and Erdenet, Mongolia's second and third largest cities after the capital, Ulaanbaatar. The company is the second-ever Canadian mining company to get a permit to mine in Mongolia and start production there.

For the company's complete announcement, please visit:

http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_oct14.php




Stocks on the Rocks

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 11:15 AM PDT

In the nine days since my last public post, the S&P 500 has tacked another 40 handles onto the August rally, the buck sliced its way down to long-term support, and gold capped a tenacious rise out of July with a $60 surge. Read More...



LONG POSITIONS ARE IN JEOPARDY

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 10:51 AM PDT

The stock market is now on the 34th day of its daily cycle. That cycle lasts on average about 35 to 40 days. So as you can see we are pushing the limits for a cycle top. We may have made that top on Wednesday. We'll just have to see how next week plays out.


I also think the dollar may have put in a cycle bottom on Friday. If it did then it is due for a snap back rally to relieve the extreme oversold conditions. This should pressure virtually all asset classes (the possible exception might be gold).

At the moment I'm expecting the market to begin working it's way down into a daily cycle trough possibly bottoming on the third quarter GDP report Oct. 29th.

Any one still holding long positions might want to consider taking profits here, especially if the trend line gets broken next week.



Once we get past the correction into the now due daily cycle low traders can probably re-enter long positions for a run at the April highs.

More in the weekend update for subscribers.

For a limited time I'm going to run the $10 subscription offer again. Anyone who isn't already a subscriber to the premium newsletter can enroll to receive the daily and weekend updates for the rest of the month of October for $10. At the end of the trial period I will offer everyone a discounted yearly membership for those who decide they would like to keep receiving the premium service.

To take advantage of the discounted October subscription click here and follow the Paypal link.


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Compendium 3 Now Available!

Posted: 16 Oct 2010 10:30 AM PDT

Dear CIGAs,

At long last we are now offering Compendium Version 3 for sale. There will also be a very limited printing of Compendium Version 1 and 2 for sale as well. If you want a copy I suggest you order it while you have the chance.

We release Compendiums every couple years to help cover the operating costs of running a site like JSMineset. Over the years we have gotten quite large and these costs have grown substantially. If you like what we do here please purchase a copy – you will be supporting a good cause and allow us to continue providing this service free of charge.

**PLEASE NOTE YOU DO NOT NEED A PAYPAL ACCOUNT TO PURCHASE ANY OF THE COMPENDIUM SETS. COMPENDIUMS SHOULD ARRIVE WITHIN 2-4 WEEKS DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION**

What you will receive with each set:

**NEW** Compendium Version 3 ($80 USD):

Included in this two DVD set is a DVD Rom (accessible by computer DVD drive only) that is a searchable database of nearly two thousand articles over the last two years from Jim Sinclair, Trader Dan, Monty Guild and a collection of other JSMineset contributors. This is one of the largest collections of articles related to the Gold market available today on DVD and includes all charts we have posted over the last year and a half.

The second DVD is the much anticipated CIGA Meeting in Toronto from February 2010. This DVD includes over 3 hours of discussions with Jim Sinclair himself and is playable in any DVD player.

**NEW** Compendium Version 1-3 Package ($210 USD):

This package includes Compendium 1 & 2 listed below and the new Compendium 3 above.

Compendium Version 2 ($80 USD):

Compendium Version 2 includes all articles posted from December 2005 to the end of October 2008. All articles are categorized and presented in HTML format and are PC and Mac compatible. Several thousand articles are again included in this archive disc which makes up literally thousands of pages of market commentary from Jim himself. Compendium Version 2 also includes an hour long DVD video commentary on financial markets by Jim Sinclair. This disc is playable in any DVD player and any computer that supports DVD playback.

Compendium Version 1 ($50 USD):

Compendium Version 1 includes all articles posted from the inception of JSMineset in 2002 to December 2005. It comes packaged as a searchable PDF database and includes several thousand articles on Gold and financial markets. As a bonus, a separate Technical Analysis video disc by Jim Sinclair is included in the package. This video is viewable on a computer only and is both PC and Mac compatible.

Compendium Version 1 & 2 Package ($130 USD):

This package includes both compendium 1 & 2 which are shown above.

As you have noticed by this point, JSMineset does not subsidize costs with garbage advertising nor do we ever promote products through our free eblast system. If you feel JSMineset has helped you over the years, purchase Compendiums 1, 2 and/or 3 and help keep us alive! For the price you pay the information you receive is unbeatable and you know it is going to a good cause.

All prices are in US dollars and include shipping and handling.

Thank you all for your continued support!

Dan Duval
JSMineset Editor


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