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Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


2010-09-22 A Mysterious Combination ... remain alert for almost anything - Chris Martenson

Posted: 22 Sep 2010 03:26 AM PDT

I wish I knew what exactly Chris Martenson meant by posting this on facebook: "Time to be vigilant: stocks up, bonds up, gold/silver up is a mysterious combination indicating that we need to remain alert for almost anything.


Gold is on the Move: Mary Anne & Pamela Aden, The Aden Sisters

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 11:41 PM PDT

Gold is looking good. Since its summer low of $1160 in late June, it has surged to $1275. That's a nearly 10% gain in less than two months, and even though gold has again broken its all-time record high, it's poised to move still higher.


How High Will Gold Go This Fall?

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 08:07 PM PDT

By Jeff Clark, Senior Editor, Casey's Gold & Resource Report The gold price has been hitting ever-new records over the past couple weeks, now closing in on the $1,300 mark. Some gold followers are saying this is extremely bullish for the near-term price since it broke so decisively through its June 28th high of $1,261. If [...]


The Price of Gold

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 08:07 PM PDT

Today we are going to be looking at gold and analyze the recent run-up that has created a great deal of excitement and fear for many investors and traders. We're also going to be looking at some upside measurements that we have for this market. Conversely, we are also looking at an area that should provide [...]


GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Catherine Austin Fitts & Chris Waltzek

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 07:00 PM PDT

GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Catherine Austin Fitts & Chris Waltzek


Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

View the original post at jsmineset.com... September 21, 2010 01:10 PM Dear CIGAs, Click chart to enlarge today's hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini ...


QE To Infinity ? No Surprise There

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

View the original post at jsmineset.com... September 21, 2010 01:13 PM Dear Friends, The BIG, "no news" news of today was the release of the FOMC details concerning their view of the economy. At 1:15 PM, CST, the "news" broke that the Fed stands ready to provide further QE should the struggling economy encounter additional headwinds. Both gold and silver shot up sharply higher and the dollar plummeted below support at the 81 level in the USDX, while the equity markets simultaneously jumped and the bond market surged. I personally do not know why the reaction was so profound. After all, it is no surprise to any of the readers here at JSMineset that the Fed stands ready to engage in "QE to infinity" as Jim has been saying for longer than I can remember. If you want to distill the essence of their press release, it is basically as follows: The economy is flat and while it has not worsened, it is also lagging in key areas, notably employment, business spending and consumer spending....


FOMC's Increasingly Accomodative Lean Pushes Gold to Record, Oil Lower

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

courtesy of DailyFX.com September 21, 2010 04:08 PM The FOMC rate decision was a uniquely distorting factor for the capital market Tuesday afternoon. With heavy speculation heading into the meeting, the essentially unchanged approach would nevertheless spur a trader and investor response in gold and crude. North American Commodity Update Commodities - Energy Fed’s Bearish Outlook Offsets the Promise of Additional Stimulus Down the Line for Energy Traders Crude Oil (LS Nymex) - $73.52 // -$1.34 // -1.79% Energy traders were following exactly the same track that equities investors were taking Tuesday as the masses prepared, speculated and reacted to a significant round of event risk. And yet, the ultimate outcome from this collective wave would have a volatile and somewhat convoluted impact on the markets despite the clearly defined scenarios market participants had mapped out. What’s more, the energy market was further distorted beyond the presence of high ...


Things

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! September 21, 2010 04:10 PM [LIST] [*]I’m hearing more whispers about a “Hail Mary” by Obama administration as the election draws near. The speculation is some sort of Uncle Sam backs all Fannie and Freddie mortgages if creditors take a 10% or so haircut. The thinking is that puts some sort of floor under the real estate market. Crazy thinking as I believe it won’t be long for the world realizes we can’t possibly service all this debt without paying something (if not all) to the piper and the U.S. Dollar goes into cardiac arrest. [*]Forget milk, Got Gold? [*]Fed news much more uglier than most came away from it. I believe the Fed is becoming desperate. [*]The signs are many [*]Bad plastic [*]Obama should have a weekend at Bernie’s [*]The truth and nothing but the truth [*]BI Research issued major buy recommend...


My Life

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! September 21, 2010 01:13 PM Life Can Be Summarized in 4 Bottles… Holy Moly!!! I’m on #3 [url]http://www.grandich.com/[/url] grandich.com...


Gold & USD Technicals: Blips & Shapes

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

Stewart Thomson email: [EMAIL="s2p3t4@sympatico.ca"]s2p3t4@sympatico.ca[/EMAIL] Sep 21, 2010 1. The US dollar. Some amateur chartists see a bull continuation H&S (head and shoulders) pattern on the weekly chart of the US dollar. I suspect this analysis comes from the non-stop pounding I gave the gold community on the existence of a bull continuation H&S in Gold, between 680-1033. That pattern activated, and has been the main driver of the move in gold from 970 to current levels. 2. Unfortunately, you need to actually read Edwards & Magee, many times, before announcing to the universe you are now a technical analysis master. Jim Sinclair calls the US dollar chart, "worse than Enron." Amateur land calls it a "bull continuation pattern." My view: amateur land is going to get a very interesting lesson in technical analysis, and account drawdowns, very very soon. 3. There are many parame...


Russia's Central Bank Buys 300,000 Ounces of Gold in August

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

Gold bull market has a long way to go: Jim Rogers. The Battle for $21 Silver Begins. Russia's Central Bank Buys 300,000 Ounces of Gold in August. The IMF itself has become the problem: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard... and much, much more. YESTERDAY IN GOLD AND SILVER Gold gained about six bucks from the time the markets opened in the Far East on Monday morning... until shortly after London opened at 9:30 a.m. local time. From that point, the gold price rolled over a bit, declining into the London p.m. gold fix at 10:00 a.m. in New York, before rising to a new record high of $1,284.80 spot... and then getting sold off and trading sideways for the rest of the New York session. Silver's price followed a similar path, except its high of the day [around $21.00 spot] was in London... shortly after 9:00 a.m. local time. From there it got sold off a bit, rose after the London p.m. gold fix... and then got sold off for a small loss on the day. Silver did not...


Gold RSI Rolls Over

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

courtesy of DailyFX.com September 21, 2010 06:11 AM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele Gold has traded to a new high, which negates the bearish implications and sets sights on round figures such as 1300, 1400, 1500, etc. Last week’s breakdown was of the false variety. Watch channel resistance going forward. The line is at 1306 today and increases about $3 a day. A key reversal today above the top keltner channel yesterday warns of at least a pullback. Initial support is 1265....


Ben in Luck

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

Ben had served his master for seven years, so he said to him, master, my time is up, now I should be glad to go back home to my mother, give me my wages. The master answered, you have served me faithfully and honestly, as the service was so shall the reward be. And he gave Ben a piece of gold as big as his head. Ben pulled his handkerchief out of his pocket, wrapped up the lump in it, put it on his shoulder, and set out on the way home. [LIST]Comment: This story is an adaptation of Hans in Luck (also known as Brother Lustig; original German title Hans im Glück), a Grimm Brother fairy tale. Our Ben had been handed the gold standard by the U.S. constitution. Having studied it extensively, Ben embarks on a journey. Read on [/LIST] As he went on, always putting one foot before the other, he saw a horseman trotting quickly and merrily by on a lively horse. Ah, said Ben quite loud, what a fine thing it is to ride. There you sit as on a chair, you stumble over no...


LGMR: Gold's "Straight North" Rally Driven by Fears of QE and "Lack of Alternatives"

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault 08:45 ET, Tues 21 Sept. Gold's "Straight North" Rally Driven by Fears of QE and "Lack of Alternatives" Ahead of US Fed Decision THE PRICE OF WHOLESALEgold bullion eased back from yesterday's new record highs in London on Tuesday, unwinding Monday's 0.7% gain as world stock markets crept higher ahead of the US Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. Major-economy government bonds rose, and crude oil fell.Silver prices slipped to three-session lows beneath last week's close of $20.75 per ounce. "At these rarefied levels, investors continue to be wary," says a note from Swiss refinery group MKS's Finance division."While the yellow metal ought to continue to rise, it will be a volatile trip."Volatility has been absent, however, from the last 7 week's 10% rise in gold prices, with the Chicago Board of Exchange's new CBOE/Comex Gold Volatility Index (ticker: GVZ) closing Monday at just 19. The CBOE's new oil volatili...


Terminally Ill Uncle Sam Weakening

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! September 21, 2010 06:00 AM While I noted last week the U.S. stock market could work higher in the near term, I also said the terminally ill U.S. Dollar (remember the only party that doesn’t know the U.S. Dollar is dead is the U.S. Dollar) was breaking down technically and going to test key support around 80. It’s dipped below some near term support at 81 but 80 is “the” major technical and psychological support number. [url]http://www.grandich.com/[/url] grandich.com...


Jim?s Mailbox

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

View the original post at jsmineset.com... September 21, 2010 06:00 AM Silver looks ready to rip CIGA Eric The gold to silver ratio (GSR) suggested an acceleration in the global fiat currency debasement and the potential for silver to rip ahead months ago. BNP Paribas obviously thinks the price of silver is about to go on a tear. It has agreed to pay $US20.58 an ounce for 680,000 ounces of the white metal to be delivered from December through to June 2012. That compares with a closing price on Friday in New York of $US20.79/oz (although intraday it poked its head above $US21/oz). Source: theaustralian.com.au More…   Classic Trend Energy Divergence With Price In Gold Shares CIGA Eric There’s an increasing number of precious metals miners (and various dollar hedge plays) displaying the classic trend energy divergence with price This setup is revealed in the following chart: Gold Miners Index ETF (GDX): This surge of trend energy to new highs wh...


Crude Oil Reluctantly Rallies, Gold Records Continue to Fall

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:38 PM PDT

courtesy of DailyFX.com September 20, 2010 10:51 PM A breakout in U.S. equity markets allowed crude oil to finally catch a break, as the commodity rose for the first time in five sessions. Gold rallied to a new record with no sign that momentum is waning. Commodities – Energy Crude Oil Reluctantly Rallies Crude Oil (WTI) - $74.25 // $0.61 // 0.81% Commentary: Crude oil arrested a four-day slide on Monday, rising $1.20, or 1.63%, due in large part to the rally and breakout in U.S. equity markets. The S&P 500 stock index soared 1.52% on the day, reaching its highest level since May. Traders have become more optimistic about the global economic outlook in recent weeks, thus it is no surprise that oil would catch a bid given how depressed it has been. But prices are down in overnight trade, illustrating how hard it remains for crude oil to sustain any up move with U.S. inventories tempering any bullish macro enthusiasm. It is worth noting that the prompt month October fut...


Don't Get Bullied Out of Bonds

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:14 PM PDT

Jon D. Markman submits:
Bonds have provided a welcome safe-haven for investors seeking shelter from the financial maelstrom of the past two years, offering steady returns while stocks bounce up and down. Now some analysts are afraid that once the selling of bonds begins it will be indiscriminate, and there will be a bloodbath. But that fear totally ignores the new investment reality in which we're living.

The fact is, stocks won't be crawling out of the gutter anytime soon, and until they do, investors will continue to look elsewhere for a store of value. They have already decided they can find it in two places: U.S. bonds and gold.

American equity mutual funds this year have seen net outflows of $7 billion, and bond funds have had inflows of $191 billion, The Economist reported last week. In fact, bond funds attracted $559 billion in the 30 months through June, according to the Investment Company Institute (ICI). In that same period, investors withdrew $209.4 billion from U.S. stock funds and $24.4 billion from funds that buy foreign stocks.


Complete Story »


Gold/Silver Ratio Analysis

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:03 PM PDT

The Gold/Silver ratio has just broken in favor of Silver. In other words, the ratio has broken to the downside. This development along with persistent strength in Gold has prompted the mainstream gurus and "experts" to talk up Silver. We've been writing about the potential in Silver on more than one occasion.


That Rumbling Sound Is Dollar Giving Way

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 06:01 PM PDT

For nearly twenty years, we haven't flinched from our prediction that the massive debt build-up of the last generation would precipitate out as a deflationary bust. That is what we still expect, although we now believe there is likely to be a hyperinflationary phase at some point as the financial system implodes.


Who will buy the Last 88.3 Tonnes of I.M.F. Gold?

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 05:35 PM PDT



Deep Thoughts From Tony Boeckh On Act II - The Consequences Of The Debt Hangover

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 05:02 PM PDT


Tony Boeckh has issued his most recent investment letter, which, at 15 pages, discusses an outlook that can be summarized best as "we really have no clue what will happen" and may have been about 14.5 pages too long. On the other hand, with everyone having surefire money making schemes up their sleeve, and peddling a guaranteed economic outcome, perhaps some outlook humility is precisely what is needed. "Some believe the bull market in gold has just begun. Others believe we are headed for a deflationary depression in which high quality bonds would continue to thrive. Another view is that we are heading into high inflation and a dollar collapse. Yet others believe there will be a return to the good old days of stability and growth. In the time frame of most investors, we are in none of those camps. With bonds significantly overvalued, investors hardly have an edge in that area, except perhaps to go short. High yield bonds are fair value but the weak economic picture suggests growing risk for those companies with poor balance sheets and poor cash flow prospects. Gold as insurance at 5-10% of the portfolio makes sense but only for the long run and only if volatility can be ignored." All in all, some good observations.

From Tony Boeckh, U.S. Government Debt: The Upward Spiral Continues

 

h/t Chips4Pips


Please take a look at my collection of gold. I plan to sell it with today's prices

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 05:02 PM PDT


Brazil Unable to Control Dollar Price, Meirelles Says

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 04:58 PM PDT

Brazilian central bank President Henrique Meirelles said the dollar is weakening because of problems in the U.S. economy and there's very little policy makers can do about it. "No country in the world can hold the dollar,"


[Audio] Fed's mission is deception, Jim Rickards tells King World News

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 04:46 PM PDT

In the first half of a two-part interview at King World News, market intelligence officer Jim Rickards remarks, among other things, that the job of the Federal Reserve is not its stated one of maintaining price stability but rather to debase the dollar and that the Central Bank Gold Agreement has broken down.


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Before Fed; Gain After

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 04:00 PM PDT

Gold saw a slight gain at $1282.17 in London, but it then fell back off for most of the rest of trade and ended with a loss of 0.53%. Silver rose to as high as $20.83 and fell to as low as $20.485 before it rebounded a bit in New York, but it still ended with a loss of 0.82%. Both metals have risen sharply in after hours trade in reaction to the fed's statement.


An Angry Sugar Trader Shares His Frustration With The Incursion Of HFT Algos On The ICE

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 03:46 PM PDT


If you think algos gone wild in stocks is bad, just wait until you see what happens when the same feedback-loop generating robots start frontrunning and churning all cotton, sugar, and other commodity contracts. According to this trader, this has already happened. Next up: plunging liquidity, and surging volatility, just in time for commodity prices to find that extra computerized "oomph" as they explode in expectation of Bernanke's reflation experiment gone wild to blow all fair value concepts to smithereens.

An Angry Sugar Trader Shares His Frustration With The Incursion Of HFT Algos In The ICE

Submitted by reader Menji

In the days before electronic trading, when commodities were traded open-outcry in trading pits, floor brokers kept spread and flat-prices in line as part of their day’s work – offering and bidding one month against another depending on the spread orders they were working. Some of these guys had almost unbelievable skills of mental arithmetic, bidding and offering across the whole board as the flat price and the spread structure fluctuated.

Since the advent of electronic trading, it has been the job of a computer algorithm to generate flat price bids and offers using the spread structure and generate spread bids and offers using the flat price structure. The algorithm is generally termed an “implied engine”, and it does the job of the old floor brokers, although it does it faster and more efficiently.

ICE (Intercontinental Exchange, self described “leading global exchange and OTC market operator”) has a web-page advertising its “multicast price feed” implied engine upon which the implied engine’s benefits are listed:

  • improved price discovery from implieds directly from the market
  • availability of implied pricing much further out the curve
  • more trading opportunities
  • greater market transparency
  • improved market depth and liquidity
  • more efficient hedging of risk
  • increased probability orders will be executed

(SOURCE https://www.theice.com/multicast.jhtml)

However, although ICE claims that its implied engine gives “improved market depth and liquidity”, in March 2009 ICE Futures US decided to turn off its implied engine on the No11 sugar contract “to improve liquidity [...] and to attract new traders”.

(SOURCE  https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/exnot0304impliedengine.pdf)

Hey, hang on a sec...

If the “multicast” implied engine is that good for liquidity, how come someone decided to just switch it off on the sugar market, to “improve liquidity”?

Just think about this for a second. This breathtaking display of shameless hypocrisy, writ large in html, is *still* up there on the ICE website. It’s been up there for months, which speaks volumes or, if not, at least a few words: ICE simply doesn’t give a fuck.

It is very difficult to imagine how switching an implied engine off can improve liquidity. Take a closer look at the the screen shot at the end of this article, and you’ll see that the bid/offer spreads on most of the forward contracts are enormous compared to those on the nearby contracts. This is a direct result of their still being no implied engine on the No11 contract. What is less difficult to imagine is who the “new traders” referred to in ICE’s release are: the algo traders were being invited to come and play in the No11 sugar market.

The consequences to ICE’s decision to switch off the implied engine were as expected: The sugar market began to immediately suffer from the lack of  what ICE’s multicast price feed” implied engine provides to other markets.

It now had to put up with:

  • obscured price discovery
  • no availability of implied pricing anywhere on the curve
  • fewer trading opportunities
  • reduced market transparency
  • reduced market depth and liquidity
  • less efficient hedging of risk
  • decreased probability orders will be executed

Other consequences were greatly increased volatility as algo trading systems unleashed their orders into a relatively small market, and increased exchange revenue for ICE and its shareholders as the algo traders fed their orders directly into the exchange servers. Liquidity plummeted, as many of the market participants who traditionally provided it (market makers and day-traders) packed up in disgust and went elsewhere, sickened by the random walk behaviour generated by computers which had started to push the market the range of an old, pre-algo, day in the space of seconds.

Liquidity is NOT the same thing as volatility, no matter what HFT apologists tell you. Insane volatility of the type generated by HFT “traders” is good for only exchange fee revenue and, usually, the fuckheads running the computers (although occasionally they get their just deserts).

In October 2009, NYSE Liffe decided to turn off the implied engine on their No5 white sugar contract, in an attempt to lure algo traders into this much smaller contract. What was immediately apparent in this experiment was that the newly-arrived algo traders began running their own implied engines, which would do exactly the same job as that done by traditional, exchange-based implied engines, except with a “haircut” cost of $0.20/tonne to whoever traded spreads against it – more revenue for the exchange, more revenue for the algo traders, more costly execution and less transparency for traditional users, and no improvement to liquidity whatsoever.

Then, on 5th January 2010, there was a sugar price spike, which was reported by the Financial Times. The market was already highly volatile, trading at 30-year highs, and (presumably) several buy orders hitting the market at more or less the same time caused sugar to spike from around 28.00 to 29.50 in less than 90 seconds.

ICE invoked its recently-issued “short-term price spike” rule, and simply cancelled all the trades above 28.90. If you look on a chart, that’s the high, but it certainly isn’t the highest it traded that day.

https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ExNot121409pricespikes.pdf

What happened on sugar on the morning of 5th January 2010 would NEVER have happened had the implied engine been switched on. How can you have March No11 trading to at least 325 over the next month on the board when the Mar/May spread was trading around 160 points? There was plenty of (unfilled) selling above the market down the board which a) would have been filled and b) would have added sufficient liquidity to prevent such as spike had the implied engine been functional.

Thousands upon thousands of tons of producer selling was left unfilled; day traders sold near the top and bought back on the collapse only to find that their sales no longer existed, and that their buy-backs were now naked longs way above the market. ICE's claim that the lack of an implied engine somehow promotes liquidity was finally shown for what it really is - corporate doublespeak whose sole aim is a shallow attempt to cover the fact that ICE’s behaviour serves purely to line the pockets of the exchange, its shareholders, and a horde of algorithmic traders at the expense of market transparency, price discovery, and the needs all other market participants.

What happened on sugar that morning - indeed, the need for ICE to invent "price spike" rules in order to deal with situations entirely due to the lack of liquidity that they themselves have helped create - should be a warning to exchanges which sacrifice market efficiency for the sake of exchange fee revenue, and a heads-up to the bodies which oversee their activities.

Interestingly, a mere week later, on 13th January 2010, NYSE Liffe decided to switch its implied engine back on for the No5 white sugar contract, saying that “having implied prices will help to lower some of the risk of short term price spikes”. NYSE Liffe hadn’t even *had* a price spike, but what they saw happen to the ICE No11 market was enough for them.

But, as I said earlier, ICE simply doesn’t give a fuck. Its shareholders are happy, the algo thugs are happy, and those unfortunates who need to use the market for genuine hedging purposes don’t count. It doesn’t look as though the CFTC gives a fuck, either.

This has to change.


APPENDIX – how spreads and futures work

You can trade sugar futures for four delivery months a year, going to around three years into the future. So the market, as represented on electronic trading screens, market reports and financial newspapers looks something like this:

                  BID       ASK      HIGH      LOW      LAST   
MAY10     19.11    19.12    20.07    19.06    19.11
JUL10      18.50    18.44    19.28    18.31    18.32
OCT10     17.45    18.11    18.65    17.79    17.83
MAR11     17.38    17.57    18.02    17.27    17.38
MAY11     16.60    17.00    17.28    16.67    16.70
JUL11      16.12    16.45    16.75    16.20    16.25
OCT11     15.92    17.00    16.45    15.88    15.98
MAR12     15.45    15.75    15.88    15.30    15.45
MAY12     15.35    15.65    15.55    15.14    15.46
JUL12      15.30    15.70    15.50    15.40    15.44
OCT12     15.45    15.55    15.50    15.25    15.45

(THESE ARE ACTUAL PRICES FROM THE ICE SUGAR No11 CONTRACT AT CLOSE OF BUSINESS ON 11 MARCH 2010)

Each delivery period is a market in its own right. On the screen shown above, May 2010 is worth roughly three quarters of a cent per pound more than July 2010, but the differential between the two delivery periods isn't carved in stone -  both contracts have their buyers and sellers, and each moves according to its own order flow. However, the relationship between the various delivery periods is a closely-followed and much-traded aspect of the market.

Producers will roll short hedges from one delivery month to the next depending on the timing of the crop, and their valuations of their merchandise. A steep enough carry could pay a producer to leave his sugar in a warehouse until later in the year. A steep enough backwardation (nearby month at a premium to forward) could pay a producer to bring forward sugar he intended to deliver later. Depending on the relative structure between the various delivery months, consumers can either decide to bring forward purchases intended for later, or squeeze their pipelines and roll prompt purchases further down the board. Speculators can bet on the fact that, no matter what happens to the market price, such and such a delivery month will be worth more (or less) compared to another delivery month further down the futures board.

All this is known as spread trading: a spread is the differential between one delivery month on the board and another, and producers, consumers, trade houses and speculators trade an awful lot of them every day, buying one delivery month whilst simultaneously selling a second. As I write this, ICE No11 sugar has traded a total of 44580 contracts in 6 1/2 hours business of which over 7000 were spread trades. Almost 20% of the total volume traded on the first and most-traded month on the board, May10, traded against something else on the board.

It is easy to imagine a spread matrix (every trader has one displayed on his screen) where the relationship between each delivery month on the board is shown. Part of the one I have on my screen at present looks something like this:
   

               JUL10          OCT10         MAR11         MAY11
MAY10    0.85/0.86    1.38/1.41    1.87/1.92    2.56/2.67               
                     JUL10    0.53/0.54    1.01/1.06    1.70/1.80
                                       OCT10    0.49/0.51    1.19/1.25       
                                                          MAR11    0.71/0.73

Looking at the top left-hand corner of the matrix above, we can see that someone is willing to simultaneously buy May 2010 and sell July 2010 at a differential of 0.85 cents/lb – whatever they pay for the May contract, they’ll sell a July contract 0.85 cents/lb cheaper. Similarly, someone is willing to sell May 2010 and buy July 2010 at 0.86 cents/lb.

It is important to understand the connection between these spread quotes and the flat-price values of each individual delivery month. Again, taking our example of the May10/Jul10 spread, if the May 2010 contract is quoted
19.66 bid/19.68 offered, then the buyer of the spread (the buyer May10 seller Jul10 at 0.85) should be willing to offer July 2010 outright at 18.83 – he can buy May10 at the offered priced of 19.68 and sell July at 0.85 cents/lb discount to this to fill his order. Similarly, the seller of the spread should be willing to buy July 2010 at the bid price on May minus the 0.86 cents/lb he wants to sell his spread at. So, even if no one is trading July 2010 outright, as long as May is quoted 19.66/19.68 and the May/Jul10 is 0.85/0.86, July should be quoted 18.80/18.83.

Now, let’s look at this the other way round. Imagine that no one is offering the May/Jul10 spread. It’s still 0.85 bid, but no one is willing to sell it as a spread. Imagine that May 2010 is still quoted 19.66 bid/19.68 offered but that, this time, there *is* an outright quote on July 2010. Let’s say it’s 18.80 bid/18.83 offered.

                         BID          ASK
MAY10           19.66        19.68
JUL10            18.80        18.83

You could simultaneously buy a May contract at 19.68 and sell a July at 18.80, which means that you could buy a May/Jul10 spread at 0.88. So, although no one may be willing to sell May/Jul10 as a spread, the quote should still be 0.85/0.88.


 


Cintas CEO Discusses F1Q2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 03:00 PM PDT

Cintas Corporation (CTAS)

F1Q2011 Earnings Call Transcript

September 21, 2010 5:00 pm ET


Complete Story »


Gold Just Surged On News That The Fed Is Prepared To Print More

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 03:00 PM PDT

Ben Bernanke just confirmed that more Fed easing is likely. Gold is loving the news:


A New ‘Trade of the Decade'

Posted: 21 Sep 2010 02:49 PM PDT

If you're going to be invested in a single metal this decade, my advice is to back copper. Specifically - companies that are sitting on long-life, high-quality copper resources.

He dropped out of the spot light for a while there, but 'Doctor Copper' is making some big moves again. The copper price fell nearly 25% earlier this year after the 2009 rally. But whilst gold hogged the headlines copper has snuck back up the chart again.

It is now only about 3% from hitting a two year high.

This latest bounce could well be the start of another decent rally too. The chart below shows the price in dark blue. In orange is the short-term trend, and the light blue is the long-term trend. Not too long ago, the two lines crossed over, and you can on the chart that this usually signals a big turning point in the market.

Copper Spot Price

Source: ANZ Commodity report

So what's going on here? And how can you profit from it?

Copper is used in a whole bunch of things that are involved in economic growth - building national power grids, the mass production of electronic goods, and putting the plumbing in new tower blocks and so on. That's why it's called Doctor Copper (Phd in Economics).

Does this mean the global economic woes are over?

I don't know. It's certainly a confusing message we're being sent. Uncertainty and volatility are still extreme, bad numbers keep pouring out of Europe. I'll leave it the macro guys like Dan and Nick to solve the riddle of why copper is rallying NOW when a lot of economic problems are yet to be fixed.

What I'm interested in - and YOU should be too - is the market for this metal over the next ten years.

Put bluntly: the copper market is already huge… and it's about to get a whole lot bigger. Global copper consumption for this year is expected to be around 17 million tonnes. At the current price the global copper metal market should be worth about US$125 billion this year. To put that in context, the global copper market is about the same size as New Zealand's economy.

So who is buying it now?

Last year, China was the biggest user of the red metal, with 28% of demand. Construction firms used 48% of global supply last year. Manufacturing of electrical and electronic appliances takes 20%. Transport takes about 10%, and the power sector takes 5%.

Who is buying all that copper?

Who is buying all that copper?

Source: AME Mineral Economics

The commodity data coming out of China shows that demand isn't slowing either. Copper imports are in the rise at the moment, jumping 10.7% last month. China is importing even more 'copper scrap', which is just reclaimed copper from buildings and so on. Imports of this jumped by 5.3% last month.

Why's China buying up copper? Maybe because a MAJOR copper shortage is coming...

Copper inventories have steadily declined since peaking in February.

According to the Metals Economics Group, significant copper discoveries have fallen "well short of what is needed to replace the copper produced."

Morningstar predicts "60% of today's open pit mines will deplete or go underground (at a higher-cost) by 2021." Rio Tinto is racing to open new mines to meet a massive "shortage coming in 2011 as United States and European demand also rises"

One mining executive has admitted to Salon.com: "Globally, economic copper resources are being depleted with the equivalent production of three world-class copper mines being consumed annually."

Yikes!

To make money as a resource investor you need to find the high ground... so you can see over the hubbub of the daily markets... and catch a glimpse of the next big high demand/low supply story.

For me, that story is copper.

My advice: Buy well-priced companies sitting on high-quality copper resources.

Dr Alex Cowie
Editor, Diggers and Drillers
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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