Gold World News Flash |
- Foxconn Increasing its China Staff to 1.3 Million Workers
- Crude Oil Falls on Abundant Supplies, Gold ETF Holdings Follow Price Higher
- Casey's Technology Guru, Part 1: Profiting Post Tech Bubble - August 18, 2010
- Are Federal Employees Compensating for Something?
- Prepare in August for Hyperinflationary Holidays
- The Utility of Debt
- Learning How Delta Creates Profits When Trading Gold
- Daily Dispatch: $202 Trillion?
- Doug Casey: Exception Among Equities
- Backfired Stimulus
- Silver, Two of Seven
- Gold
- Time is running out for the West
- Deflation: To Be Or Not To Be
- In The News Today
- Eton Park Capital Management Goes For Gold
- LGMR: Gold's "Upside Breach" Stalls But Low Rates & Liquidity "Support Investment"
- Gold 1250 is Potential Resistance
- GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Dr. Ron Paul & Chris Waltzek
- The Heavy Load of Fannie and Freddie
- Exception Among Equities
- The Failure of the Second London Gold Pool
- Will the Australian Election Help their Currency?
- Party like it's 1599
- Asian Metals Market Update
- Gold “the Most Important Reserve Asset”?
- Gold Readies For A Major Price Thrust To $1,325-$1,375 This Fall
- The US Economy: A Canadian Leading Indicator
- Goldman Cuts 2011 Bank EPS And Price Targets By 7% On Fears That "We Are Turning Japanese"
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Mixed After Late Session Comeback
- 5 Trillion MORE Dollars To Fix Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac???
- 2010-08-18 Next crisis by 2012—prepare and thrive
- BOJ To Hold Emergency Policy Meeting At 5am GMT, Additional Easing Announcement Expected; Nikkei-S&P Convergence In Play
- The Unpoppable Bond Bubble?
- Silver Wheaton Call Options Move Up Today
- GM Files For IPO
- US Prepares For Gold Standard?
- Adrian Douglas: The imminent failure of the second London Gold Pool
- Interactive Visualization Of The Bush Tax Cut Impact (And Obama's Proposed Tax Plan)
- A Big Mac to Go in China Please
- Protecting Your Cash, Part II
| Foxconn Increasing its China Staff to 1.3 Million Workers Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:44 PM PDT While the US economy suffers from severe joblessness, one of China's largest manufacturers, Foxconn Technology Group, is making plans to add about 400,000 new jobs over the next year and build new factories. True, it's the same Foxconn that recently experienced a string of 12 worker suicides, but apparently things are looking up! After doubling salaries and holding a few morale-boosting worker rallies, the company is feeling confident enough to remove safety nets it had had to install… the ones designed to keep jumpers from succeeding in taking their own lives. From Bloomberg: "The Taiwanese company aims to boost its China workforce to 1.2 million to 1.3 million people after revenue jumped 50 percent in the first half, Louis Woo, special assistant to the chief executive officer, said in an interview today. Foxconn will expand to inland provinces Henan and Sichuan because that's "what the new generation of workers wants," he said. "Foxconn's hiring plan, equivalent to more than three times the combined workforces of Microsoft Corp. and Apple, signals an improving outlook for electronics demand as the global economy recovers. The company is shifting away from Shenzhen, the southern coastal city that's a magnet for migrant workers, after the suicides of at least 12 workers this year prompted it to install safety nets to prevent employees jumping to their deaths… "…Chairman Terry Gou in June denied Foxconn was running a sweatshop and blamed personal problems and compensation packages offered to bereaved families for most of the suicides. The deaths prompted the company to hire monks and counselors to help employees, while it doubled the base wage for workers in Shenzhen. Clients also hired suicide experts to visit the company and talk with workers, Woo said today. Foxconn and its employees' union held rallies across China today with more than 100,000 workers signing a pledge entitled "Treasure your life, care for your family," it said in a statement." Now, according to sources quoted in the article, Foxconn never actually expects to "drive suicides to zero," but that's partly due to its massive staff size. As described above, its latest hiring round will alone increase its workforce by over three times the combined entire employee size of Apple (about 34,000) and Microsoft (about 89,000). Of course, this hiring comes at a time when many US tech firms — like HP, which is in the process of cutting 9,000 jobs — are shedding workers. And, in the same persistent trend…it's shipping the positions right over to China. You can read more details in Bloomberg's coverage of Foxconn to hire 400,000 workers within a year. Best, Rocky Vega, Foxconn Increasing its China Staff to 1.3 Million Workers originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."
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| Crude Oil Falls on Abundant Supplies, Gold ETF Holdings Follow Price Higher Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com August 18, 2010 11:51 PM Crude oil got slammed early in the Wednesday session before rebounding notably following the DOE inventory report. Which is not to say that the report was bullish—it was not. But prices got low enough to spur a rebound in the commodity which has fallen precipitously from last week’s highs. Commodities – Energy Crude Oil Falls on Abundant Supplies Crude Oil (WTI) - $75.50 // $0.08 // 0.11% Commentary: Crude oil resumed its downtrend on Wednesday, falling $0.35, or 0.46%. Things were looking much worse early in the session, as traders anticipated a bearish inventory report after the API survey indicated the crude oil stocks had built over 5 million barrels last week. The DOE report did not reveal such a build, however, and in fact, showed that crude oil inventories declined by 0.8 million barrels. That being said, the overall report was still bearish as total petroleum inventories built 5.3 million barrels, s...
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| Casey's Technology Guru, Part 1: Profiting Post Tech Bubble - August 18, 2010 Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT Conversations With Casey August 18, 2010 | Visit Online Version | www.CaseyResearch.com • About Casey • Forward this email • New? Free sign up for Conversations With Casey • CaseyResearch.com (Alex Daley, interviewed by Louis James, Editor, International Speculator) Bio: Alex Daley is the senior editor of Casey's Extraordinary Technology. In his varied career, he's worked as a senior research executive, a software developer, project manager, senior IT executive, and technology marketer. As a technologist, he's collaborated on the development of numerous cutting-edge projects, from computer vision systems to autonomous robotic vehicles, to artificial intelligence algorithms, and more. L: Doug Casey is somewhere in the depths of Cambodia this week, out of touch, and we've been talking t...
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| Are Federal Employees Compensating for Something? Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT The US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an "official" source of news, reported what everybody has already known: Government worker compensation in now an average of more than $120,000, or about twice as much as the average private sector worker making less than $60,000. I find this particularly interesting because I get a chance to answer some of my critics, who say to me, "Bah! Even though you are absolutely right about the foul Federal Reserve and how their continually creating more and more money is going to ignite an inflation in prices that will destroy us, and you are entirely correct that buying gold, silver and oil are terrific bargains right now because of it, and you are completely spot-on that Obama and Congress are repugnant socialist morons, but you are not as handsome as you think you are, and a lot more stupid, too. And lazy. For instance, you never do any real work." So, I now shut these complaining, nasty people up by doing a little "investigative research," in this case...
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| Prepare in August for Hyperinflationary Holidays Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT Ben Bernanke and the rest of the Federal Reserve are priming the pump for what could by a hyper-inflationary Christmas. While the Fed continues to build a pile of kindling, the spark could very well be this holiday shopping season. Imagine that you had a pile of wood put together to make a camp fire. Your goal is to create the hottest fire imaginable, one that will last for quite some time. You start with the smallest pieces, a few leaves, a couple of pine cones, and a few small sticks. Next you throw on the larger timber. A few logs and some old fence posts will do here. Now, in the spirit of getting this camp fire going, you add a few gallons of pure gasoline. That should be enough to do it, right? Wait, what's that? You forgot the matches?! The above scenario is exactly what is occurring in the Federal Reserve. They've done everything they can to create inflation. They've laid the groundwork and poured on the gasoline in the form of M0 money creatio...
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT For many, debt is a burden. For many others, it's a utility to be respected. Regardless of which position you take, realize that there are some situations in which debt is beneficial - and others where it's just dangerous. For the US Government, debt is now just simply dangerous. Δ GDP/Δ Debt This very simple mathematical equation is what so many economists use to understand the utility of debt and its value-added influence on the economy. The delta, Δ , means change - and in this case, the change in the GDP divided by the change in debt. This number, if greater than one, means that for each percentage move in US debt, a larger percentage move is generated in the GDP, or total output. This is relatively simple to understand, and it paints an excellent picture of the benefits of economic stimulus. Since the 1960s, the numbers derived from the simple equation of Δ GDP/Δ Debt have become worse and worse. In the 1960s, for each 10% i...
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| Learning How Delta Creates Profits When Trading Gold Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT Last week’s articles focused specifically on the option Greek Theta. This week we will shift gears and adjust our focus on Delta, another fundamental tenet of option trading. The official definition of Delta as provided by Wikipedia is as follows: Δ, Delta – Measures the rate of change of option value with respect to changes in the underlying asset’s price. Delta has a significant impact on the price of an option contract(s). When a trader is long a call contract, Delta will always be positive. Likewise, if an option trader owns a put contract long, Delta will always be negative. As option contracts get closer to the money their Delta increases causing the option contract to rise in value rapidly as the option gets closer to being in the money. Clearly Theta has an adverse impact on a trader who is long a single options position (own options long with no hedge or spread), however Delta is extremely dynamic and is one of the major factors directly ...
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| Daily Dispatch: $202 Trillion? Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT August 18, 2010 | www.CaseyResearch.com $202 Trillion? Dear Reader, According to Reuters and other sources, General Motors is supposed to file paperwork this week for an IPO that’s expected to raise between $15 billion and $20 billion and is an important step in shedding its government backing. The U.S. government (read, U.S. taxpayers) stepped in last year with a $50 billion bailout for the company and currently owns a 61% stake in it. So, after the bailout and billions of dollars of debt wiped off the books, GM’s definitely a leaner machine these days. But are you going to buy shares of the company when they hit the market sometime between late October and Thanksgiving? GM reported earnings of $1.3 billion in the second quarter (its best showing since Q2 2004), but how impressive is it really? And have things really turned around? My answer to those questions would be: not very and probably not. For one ...
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| Doug Casey: Exception Among Equities Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT Source: Karen Roche of The Gold Report 08/18/2010 As the world sinks deeper into what he calls the Greater Depression, Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey sees default on the U.S. national debt as inevitable—albeit probably in the guise of currency destruction. He anticipates further contraction in real estate, particularly on the commercial front. As long as stocks remain overpriced, he'll shy away from equities—except perhaps in favored sectors, such as gold. In fact, in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Doug posits that gold juniors might "go up by an order of magnitude or more, even while most other stocks are going down." The Gold Report: Doug, at a recent conference you said that the U.S. ought to default on its national debt now. Why that rather than letting it play out? Doug Casey: Several other things almost equally radical should be done besides defaulting on the debt. I recognize that an outright default is most unlikely, but the n...
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT The 5 min. Forecast August 18, 2010 11:07 AM by Addison Wiggin & Ian Mathias [LIST] [*] The Fed can print it, but can’t control it: States hoard money intended to save teacher jobs [*] Sign of the times: Top-performing global indexes belong to socialist nations [*] Rich Lee on the sudden resurgence of the eurozone crisis [*] Plus, Alan Knuckman on the recent stock selloff… beginning of a downtrend or an isolated event? [/LIST] You have to be especially heartless to lay off a teacher, says the political will off the moment. That was the sentiment behind the $26 billion state stimulus bill passed last week, $10 billion of which was supposed to save 160,000 teaching jobs at risk of elimination due to budget shortfalls. Do it for the children, right? Maybe not… “We’re a little wary about hiring people if we only have money for a year,” Clark County Las Vegas CFO Jeff Weiler told The New York Times this morning. Heh, what do you ...
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT Richard (Rick) Mills Ahead of the Herd As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information In the time of the ancient Babylonians - long before the periodic table - there were seven sacred metals: gold, silver, copper, iron, tin, lead and mercury. In Roman and Greek Mythology, the First Age was called Golden, the Second Age Silver. Apollo, the god of truth and light, and teacher of medicine, carried a silver bow. The hieroglyph of Isis (Egyptian moon goddess) is a crescent and images of her are usually reproduced with her standing on the Crescent. This has also become the symbol for silver – on old maps a crescent shows the location of a silver mine. Islamic alchemy gave silver an important place, alchemical procedures were defined in terms of silver - the silvering of other metals, the act of giving other metals silver like qualities. We’ve long practiced the science (metallurgy) of separating silver from lead -...
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! August 18, 2010 08:10 AM To all the naysayers and especially the perma-bears and the media who constantly showcase these forever wrong forecasters, I could show lots of charts and list numerous fundamental reasons why gold is going to a new, all-time high, but instead I like to simply say to them Exclusive video of Bill Murphy, Chris Powell and GATA gang today after seeing gold charts [url]http://www.grandich.com/[/url] grandich.com...
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| Time is running out for the West Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT August 17, 2010 10:36 AM - The Great Recession has shrunk the time left for the big AAA states to prevent a sovereign debt crisis. Read the full article at the Telegraph......
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... August 18, 2010 07:28 AM Dear CIGAs, As Martin Armstrong says herein, what is coming is more sinister and less understood than the 1929 economic model. The fact is it is coming without any doubt. Gold is the only insurance against this insidious currency driven event. The three illustrations below Armstrong`s article are in fact not cartoons. These are teaching illustrations of the aforementioned insidious event on the horizon which is coming extremely fast. I estimate one out of a million people understand the implications. Click any of the first three images below to open Armstrong's latest in PDF format ...
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... August 18, 2010 09:04 AM Jim Sinclair's Commentary Currency induced cost push inflation along with hot/dry long weather cycle cost induced food inflation is here and growing. The economically blind liberal jerks and demonic derivative dealing fools simply cannot see it. Wal-Mart Quietly Raises Prices By JONATHAN BERR Posted 11:30 AM 08/10/10 Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), which for years has touted its prowess at lowering prices, has been doing the opposite as it tries to bolster its bottom line amid stagnating sales. A JPMorgan Chase (JPM) study of a Walmart Supercenter in Virginia found that the world’s largest retailer has raised prices by nearly 6% on average over the past six weeks, according to the New York Post. Reuters says it was the biggest sequential increase since JPMorgan started the study in January 2009. Some Prices Hiked Over 60% Some of the price hikes were considerably larger. For instance, the price of a 32-ounce ...
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| Eton Park Capital Management Goes For Gold Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT Tuesday's activity in the gold market is hardly worth mentioning. But, just like Monday, the rally that began in the Far East and London trading was extinguished during the New York trading session. This should be a very familiar trading pattern to you by now, dear reader. Volume was extremely light... with emphasis on the word 'extremely'. Gold's high price tick came shortly before 1:00 p.m. in London trading at $1,228.00 spot. Silver was the same... but it was obvious that the price wanted to break above $18.60 the ounce... but every attempt that occurred was quickly sold down. The chart shows how obvious it was. But it could also have been Ted Butler's 'raptors'... the '9 or more' traders selling their long positions at a profit. We won't know which it was until Friday's Commitment of Traders report. The cut-off for that report was at the close of trading yesterday... and, hopefully, all of yesterday's 'action' will be in it. Silver's high p...
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault 08:55 ET, Weds 18 August Gold's "Upside Breach" Stalls But Low Rates & Liquidity "Support Investment" THE PRICE OF GOLD held in a tight range around $1225 an ounce early in London on Wednesday, little changed by a drop in commodity prices and the first fall for a week in European equities. Government bond prices rose, pushing 30-year German Bund yields down to a record low of 2.97%. The Japanese Yen rose back towards ¥85 per Dollar – nearing a 15-year high – as Tokyo policy-makers prepared to discuss intervening in a meeting on Friday. "We view liquidity and low real interest rates as the fundamental drivers of gold investment demand," says today's report from Walter de Wet and his team at Standard Bank. "Even if risk appetite improves, gold should rise." Over in the currency markets today, the British Pound jumped 1.5¢ – recovering all of Tuesday's loss – after minutes from the Bank of England's ...
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| Gold 1250 is Potential Resistance Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:10 PM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com August 18, 2010 05:07 AM 240 Minute Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele Gold has topped. Please see the latest special report for details. Gold is making its way lower in an impulsive fashion. It seems as though the first 5 wave decline ended following a terminal thrust from a triangle. I do expect this rally from the low to prove corrective. Price has reached the 61.8% retracement – additional resistance would be the parallel channel, which intersects with a 100% extension level tomorrow morning....
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| GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Dr. Ron Paul & Chris Waltzek Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:00 PM PDT GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Dr. Ron Paul & Chris Waltzek
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| The Heavy Load of Fannie and Freddie Posted: 18 Aug 2010 06:16 PM PDT Ian Wyatt submits: Just as Congress passed the financial reform bill to prevent another financial meltdown, top government officials are currently trying to unwind destruction in the housing market from 10 years of over-stimulation - and trying to prevent another systematic failure. That's right, the subject of who makes loans and who gets loans are both at the center of the debate. Complete Story »
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 06:12 PM PDT As the world sinks deeper into what he calls the Greater Depression, Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey sees default on the U.S. national debt as inevitable—albeit probably in the guise of currency destruction. He anticipates further contraction in real estate, particularly on the commercial front. As long as stocks remain overpriced, he'll shy away from equities—except perhaps in favored sectors such as gold.
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| The Failure of the Second London Gold Pool Posted: 18 Aug 2010 06:09 PM PDT This article is a sequel to my article entitled "Gold Market is not "Fixed", it's Rigged" which is essential reading before reading this article. The previous article demonstrated that had a trader consistently bought gold on the London AM Fix and sold it the same day on the London PM Fix and repeated it every day from April 2001 through to today the cumulative loss would be $500 per ounce. Yet gold has been in a bull market during that time and a "buy and hold" strategy over the same time period would have returned a gain of $950 per ounce.
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| Will the Australian Election Help their Currency? Posted: 18 Aug 2010 06:04 PM PDT Ralph Shell submits: On August 21st the Australian voters will go to the polls. At stake are the policies of the new leader of the Labour Party Julia Gillard. She called for a new election on July 16th after replacing Kevin Rudd, the previous PM. When calling for the new election she said, as reported in Bloomberg Business Week: Complete Story »
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 05:31 PM PDT And so begins yet another day where we have no idea what the world will bring us. But let's have a crack anyway. At the top of the list of today's thoughts is whether a contraction in global credit means there will be fewer good investment opportunities. Without an ocean of credit to float on, good businesses will have to sink or swim on their own merits. But first, here is something that looks like it might be good news for the trader types. Australia is going to get its own "fear gauge." The ASX told newswires it's coming out with an index modelled on the Chicago Board Option Exchange's infamous VIX index. The VIX measures options activity on big U.S. stocks to tell you what the demand for puts and calls in. Options, even though technically they carry the scary name of derivatives (since they derive their value from the underlying security upon which they're based), are actually a basic kind of insurance. There are sensible and clever ways to use them to hedge against your risk in a position. And there not-so-clever and not-so-sensible ways to speculate with them. We asked the current Swarm and Slipstream Trader, Dawes, if an Aussie version of the VIX would be useful. He was not shy in answering. "If it's just a measure of underlying volatility in the Aussie market, I don't need that. I traded options in Sydney for years. It's pretty easy to see what volatility is in the market if you know where to look." "But...?" "But if it's something you can buy or sell or trade then yes, it would be useful. Buying volatility through something like the VIX is better than putting on an exotic options strategy through other market proxies. If the index is tradeable or optionable, then it would probably be useful. And I think the market's going to get a lot more volatile by the end of the year." We thanked Dawes and slowly backed out of the room as he turned to refocus his attention on two computer screens filled with charts and lines. One reason the market may get more volatile - other than the underlying reason that none of us ever know what the future holds - is that the great tide of money that markets have floated on for the last 30 years is receding. Highly-leveraged businesses, or businesses dependent on consumer and household leverage, are not going to do as well in a more frugal world. More evidence that the tide is going out on cheap money is the retirement of hedge fund legend and billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller. Druckenmiller spent ten years working with George Soros. His $12 billion fund hasn't lost money in two decades - even in the last two years. He's down 5% this year, though, and says the emotional and personal toll of managing money isn't' worth it anymore. You've got to give Druckenmilller credit for doing well the last two years when everyone else in the world got clobbered. But then, hedge funds were originally designed to be conservative and modest - to match the market's return and then some in a bull market and to beat the market on a relative basis in a bear market. With the explosion of credit (cheap capital) around the world since 1980, the number of hedge funds and hedge fund strategies blossomed like an algal bloom on the ocean. That's the obvious benefit to the financial industry of a consistently low global cost of capital: short-term borrowing rates are so low that you can always lever up and make money in something, even if it's increasingly risky sovereign government bonds. But Druckenmiller's retirement probably confirms part of the deflationist case: when there is less money to manage, you don't need as many people to manage it. Here in Australia all eyes are on the Federal election. It's just two days away, thank goodness. We got a letter from the Greens in the post yesterday. We followed up with a bit of research and learned that the Greens want to eliminate coal power in Australia by 2020 and have all of Australia run on renewable energy by 2050. Considering 80% of Australia's electricity currently comes from coal, that's an ambitious, nation-transforming, life-transforming strategy. What would it really mean for you? By our reckoning, that would return Australia to about a 16th century lifestyle, before industrialisation and before the energy revolution. What point is there having a worker-friendly industrial relations policy if you plan on eliminating all industry? If it's a serious policy proposal, then Australians should think seriously about what it means. Green Senator Christine Milne told Kerry O'Brien on ABC's The 7:30 Report, "We want to see a carbon price as quickly as possible because we want transformation of the whole economy and society." Hmmn. That doesn't sound very democratic at all. You reckon most people would be for cleaner air. It's true that older coal plants produce nasty particulate emissions that are harmful to humans. But it's also true that newer coal plants are much cleaner. It's also true that there is zero chance on God's green earth that you can run a modern industrial economy on renewable energy and eliminate coal. But that is obviously not the Green plan. The green plan is for a "post-industrial" society based on a labour force organised around smaller local, sustainable, and agrarian communities. That sounds nice, too. But it sounds a lot like the 16th century, when most people spent all day tilling the soil to grow enough food to survive. What about the division of labour? What about increasing productivity? Those things didn't happen until coal-fired power did the work that human muscle had to do before. Take away the coal, and you take the man out of the factory and back in the field. You take the factory out of Australia too, which may be part of the plan. That may sound like an ideal Australia if you're Bob Brown or Christine Milne. But that is not a minor policy recommendation. It's industrial suicide. It's also putting the whole country in a time machine and taking it backwards, probably based on some vague idea that subsistence living is better for the human soul, even if sleeping on a dirt floor is harder on your back. Give us indoor heating any day. And beware politicians bearing big promises about transforming society. At first, you'll be asked to change your behaviour. Later, you'll be told. Once in power, society transformers usually don't take no for an answer. Dan Denning
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 05:04 PM PDT It was a very big recovery by all commodities from the low yesterday. It seems that shorts got covered in a big way which resulted in all of them closing at higher prices. Yesterday's reversal is very positive for gold, silver, copper and crude oil which suggest that more gains could be in store if they are able to trade over yesterdays lows.
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| Gold “the Most Important Reserve Asset”? Posted: 18 Aug 2010 04:53 PM PDT Tim Iacono Apparently, after what's happened to the global financial system over the last few years, the world's central bankers have had a dramatic change in thinking about gold bullion, formerly known as the "barbarous relic". A metal once considered to be a remnant of a bygone era is now increasingly viewed [...]
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| Gold Readies For A Major Price Thrust To $1,325-$1,375 This Fall Posted: 18 Aug 2010 04:39 PM PDT
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| The US Economy: A Canadian Leading Indicator Posted: 18 Aug 2010 04:28 PM PDT
Courtesy of Zero Hedge's latest contributor, Derailed Capitalism, which will focus primarily on the Canadian financial and economic situation. The US Economy: A Canadian Leading Indicator Canada’s economic soundness has garnered renewed interest amongst foreign investors. The country was fortunate to escape the economic crisis unscathed, unlike the rest of the world. It boasts one of the strongest financial systems on the globe, ranking best in the world by the World Economic Forum. While it appears that the Canadian economy remained unscathed throughout the financial crisis of 2007-2008, further deterioration of public finances combined with declining exports while commodity prices remain high may put further pressure on the Canadian economy. With the global economic recovery in doubt, Canada’s resilient economy is beginning to mimic that of the United States in 2006-2007:
Full Presentation in pdf format
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||
| Goldman Cuts 2011 Bank EPS And Price Targets By 7% On Fears That "We Are Turning Japanese" Posted: 18 Aug 2010 04:13 PM PDT
Goldman's Richard Ramsden has cut his Price Targets and EPS estimates virtually across the board for his coverage universe, while keeping ratings the same, on increasing concerns that loan shrinkage at banks, and portfolio run offs will pressure bank Net Interest Margins/Income, in what he dubs as the "Turning Japanese" syndrome. The primary culprit - lack of loan growth as not only are banks squeezed by declining LT rates, but by an increasing lack of willingness by US consumers to borrow: "Loans were down 1% this quarter, with chargeoffs remaining a big source of shrinkage. We analyze the economic factors driving loan growth and conclude that year-over-year growth will not turn positive until 2011. Run-off portfolios which account for 10% of system wide loans will drive a further 3% shrinkage in 2011." Ramsden rhetorically asks: "Shrinking loan levels and low interest rates have prompted many to ask if we are headed down the same path as Japan in the late 1990s." And while the banking analyst is contractually obligated to answer every question bullishly (no matter if real or rhetorical), we are confident that particular question has only one correct answer, and it is most certainly not "No." Below is a summary table of Ramsden's 'before and after' opinion on Goldman's key peers. The net result of the newfound bearishness is a 7% reduction in both Price Targets and 2011 EPS estimates for the coverage universe.
While Ramsden discusses the various nuances of his negative view on the financial sector in the attached presentation (something those with a very bullish bent on financials will likely not be too happy about), the key point can be summarized by his concern that the US is increasingly turning Japanese.
Yet being a sellside analyst who by definition is forbidden from saying the outright deflationary truth, Ramsden's response is sufficiently well telegraphed.
Some more on the tried and true excuse of a lightning response, which now has the same veracity as the whole discredited money on the sidelines fallacy. The simple observation all these permabulls ignore is that by stepping in to provide trillions of monetary (and fiscal) stimuli overnight, all the Fed and the administration did was to create a rapid and dramatic bounce, which will be all the more vicious and fast when it does the inevitable mean reversion acrobatics (unless of course double the dose of the initial stimulus is injected, and so forth at an exponential rate). In other words, what went up, is about to come crashing down: while Japan's pain has been prolonged, gradual and chronic, ours is about to be extremely painful and acute. Then again, maybe Ramsden is right:
Only time will tell just how much off the mark the Goldman analyst may be.
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| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Mixed After Late Session Comeback Posted: 18 Aug 2010 04:00 PM PDT Gold fell $5.85 to $1220.25 in Asia and climbed back higher in London to see a 20 cent gain at $1226.30 at about 9AM EST before it dropped off rather markedly in the next hour of trade and fell to as low as $1217.50 by midmorning in New York, but it then exploded back higher in the last few hours of trade and ended near its early afternoon high of $1232.32 with a gain of 0.29%. Silver fell to as low as $18.15 before it also rallied back higher, but it still ended with a loss of 1.02%.
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| 5 Trillion MORE Dollars To Fix Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac??? Posted: 18 Aug 2010 02:55 PM PDT 
Yes, you read the correctly. According to an article in the Christian Science Monitor, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are facing $5 trillion dollars in liabilities that the federal government is going to have to deal with one way or another.... An exit strategy could involve adding Fannie and Freddie's roughly $5 trillion in obligations, in effect, to a federal balance sheet that already includes $13.3 trillion in federal government debts. The GSE obligations would be a different animal, because those liabilities would need to be covered by taxpayers only if things went bad in the housing market. It is hard to even put into words how much money that is. If you were alive when Jesus was born, and you spent one million dollars every single day since then, you still would not have spent one trillion dollars by now. But Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not a one trillion dollar problem. They are a five trillion dollar problem. And if the housing market gets even worse (which it will), that figure could rise substantially. Of course the U.S. government should have never gotten into the mortgage business in the first place, but these days the U.S. government is intervening in virtually every industry. And don't expect U.S. government support for the mortgage industry to stop any time soon. In fact, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says that the U.S. government plans to continue to play a prominent role in back-stopping mortgages in order to keep the U.S. economy stabilized. But if the only thing keeping the U.S. housing industry from plunging into the abyss is unprecedented intervention by the U.S. government, what does that say about the overall health of the U.S. economy? Mortgage defaults and foreclosures continue to set new all-time records even with all of this government intervention. In fact, major U.S. banks wrote off about $8 billion on mortgages during the first 3 months of 2010, and if this pace continues it will even exceed 2009's staggering full-year total of $31 billion. Not only that, but construction of new homes in the U.S. and applications to build new homes in the U.S. both declined to their lowest levels in more than a year during July. And things are rapidly getting even worse for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Mortgages held by Fannie and Freddie are going delinquent at a very alarming pace as the Christian Science Monitor recently explained.... As of March 31 this year, 6.3 percent of mortgages held by Fannie and Freddie are either seriously delinquent or in foreclosure. Although that's down slightly from the figure three months earlier, it represents a big one-year rise (from 3.9 percent in early 2009). An increase in delinquencies of over 50 percent in just one year? That is not a promising trend. If the U.S. housing market takes another big dive in the next few years, and things certainly look very ominous at the moment, what in the world is that going to do to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? So what is the solution? Well, on Tuesday the Obama administration invited prominent banking executives to offer their thoughts on the mortgage market. So what was the consensus? It was something along the lines of this: "Please, oh please, oh please continue propping up the 11 trillion dollar mortgage market." So much for capitalism, eh? When even the banksters are begging for massive ongoing government intervention you know that the game has changed. Adam Smith must be rolling over in his grave. But this is where we are at. We are on the verge of a horrific economic collapse, and it is only enormous intervention by the U.S. government that is holding things together. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Administration and the Veterans Administration backed approximately 90 percent of all home loans made during the first half of 2010. So where would we be without the government? Of course we could let the whole thing collapse and allow housing prices to eventually settle at a level where people could actually afford them, but what fun would that be? No, for now the U.S. government will continue to endlessly spend billions of dollars to prop up a system that is artificially inflated and that is destined to collapse one way or another. The truth is that the American middle class is slowly being wiped out and they just can't afford to pay $300,000, $400,000 or $500,000 for their houses anymore. Without good jobs, the American people are not going to be able to afford hefty mortgages. Unfortunately, millions upon millions of middle class jobs are being offshored and outsourced every single year and they are not coming back. There simply will never be a recovery in the housing market without jobs. But in the new global economy, American workers have been put in direct competition with the cheapest labor in the world. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that jobs are going to be taken away from American workers and given to people who are willing to work for less than ten percent as much. So, no, the housing market is never going to fully recover. Things got dramatically out of balance over the past couple of decades, and the housing market is going to try to restore that balance regardless of what the U.S. government does. The U.S. government can continue to throw billions (or even trillions) of dollars at the problem, but in the end the underlying economic fundamentals are simply not going to be denied.
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| 2010-08-18 Next crisis by 2012—prepare and thrive Posted: 18 Aug 2010 02:33 PM PDT Experts agree that the next crisis is to be expected within one or two years, so there is not much room left for preparation. Even worse, it may be even more damaging than the meltdown of 2007-2008 and its aftermath.
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 02:20 PM PDT
It was a brief 24 hours ago that we suggested putting on a Nikkei-S&P convergence arb with the provision that "this is the cheapest and easiest way to hedge what is becoming increasingly inevitable: that the BoJ will have no choice but to follow our own Fed down the rabbit hole of money printing." A few minutes ago the Dow Jones released the following: "The Bank of Japan will consider taking additional easing steps to cope with a rising yen and falling share prices, the Sankei Shimbun reported in its morning edition." The BOJ will hold an emergency meeting policy meeting at 5 am GMT at which point the specifics of the easing measures will be announced. More from Dow Jones:
As this is certain to ignite the nitrous under the Nikkei (and punish the JPY, as the BoJ enters the final lap of the monetary destruction race to the deflationary bottom), those who put on the convergence trade as suggested are likely to see imminent profits.
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 02:01 PM PDT
Colin Barr of Fortune/CNN reports on the unpoppable bond bubble:
Back in January 2009, I asked whether there is a bubble in bonds and concluded:
The threat of deflation, quantitative easing, and liability-driven investments by global pensions is what's driving bond prices higher. Moreover, some pensions are leveraging up on bonds to meet their actuarial returns. And banks are borrowing at zero on the short end, purchasing bonds to make the easy spread and trading in higher yielding risk assets all around the world. All these factors are driving bond prices higher, and while it may look like a bubble -- and likely is a bubble -- it's unlikely to pop anytime soon. Inflation expectations are the key gauge for bond yields, and according to Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc, the drop in yields on Treasuries suggests the US economy is in for five to 10 years of slow growth:
Stocks have languished and investors have been piling into bonds and corporate bonds, fearing deflation. But as foreigners continue to purchase US Treasuries, and the yield curve flattens, global banks and global pensions will have to start looking elsewhere as they search for yield. It is my contention that the liquidity tsunami will continue to drive all risk assets higher. To be sure, we don't have the crazy leverage of the past built in the financial system, but you'll see more than a few bubbles forming in the next few years and they're all linked to the biggest bubble of all, the US bond bubble. Martin Roberge, Portfolio Strategist and Quantitative Analyst at Dundee Securities, wrote a comment, Gold: The time Has Come for a Bubble:
In my last comment, I mentioned that several prominent hedge funds are placing big bets on gold. The reasoning is that in an uncertain world, gold offers refuge against the ravages of both inflation and deflation (especially physical gold).
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| Silver Wheaton Call Options Move Up Today Posted: 18 Aug 2010 01:41 PM PDT there are couple of points to consider regarding Silver Wheaton's progress so we will start with a quick look at the chart. Please note that the stock price is now close to its 52 week high of $21.89, a break above this figure puts SLW in ... Read More...
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 12:52 PM PDT Wall Street Strategies submits: by David Silver So the wait is finally over, General Motors filed its needed paperwork with the SEC for its IPO a little more than a year after it entered bankruptcy. It is not really the result I expected, but it is a small step. The Company filed its second quarter earnings release on August 13 and hinted at today’s S-1 filing. I am still working my way through the filing (it is more than 300 pages long), but the initial number that the Company hopes to offer is staggering, and not in a good way. I wrote on Wednesday that I hoped GM would be conservative with its offering in the hopes of generating extra excitement for the IPO: however, only filing for a $200 million IPO is a bit ridiculous. Yes, it is not all the money it hopes to raise, but saying only $200 million just seems like a waste of everyone’s time. Tesla (TSLA) sold 400 vehicles last year, and GM sold more than 8.4 million around the world, and the Tesla IPO raised $224 million. Something seems a bit off no? However, both companies are completely dependent on government money. I still believe the Company will end up raising between $16 and $18 billion through the IPO, but the filing indicates that only the proceeds from the preferred stock (about $100 million) will go to funding the Company. However, the IPO is expected to get rid of 20% of the government’s investment (about $12 billion), but it should be that the U.S. tax payer has to be made whole again (we would lose money anyway) before anyone can make a dime off of the new GM stock. Will that actually happen? Not likely. So the Street has more data now to digest, but from the looks of it, retail investors won’t have a bite at the first apple. Rumors had it that there was a no holds barred Royal Rumble between underwriters to be a primary underwriter (just kidding, but that would be something I would pay to watch), but Citi (C), JP Morgan (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC) won out. So now it is going to be institutions and large hedge funds that are able to get involved in the IPO. As a retail investor, I wouldn’t be interested in investing in the new GM. The hype is going to be out of this world, but let’s look at the actual business model.
One of the biggest problems for the “Old GM” was debt and the Company got rid of that problem with its bankruptcy problems, but now it has to survive in a relatively stagnant industry. Yes, we will see growth for the next few years in the United States, but if one thinks we are getting back to the 17 million unit level anytime soon, you have another thing coming to you. The Street now has a little more data to punch into their excel spreadsheets, but the question now becomes how quickly can the Company turn this announcement into an actual IPO? Some think it will happen at the end of October through Thanksgiving in the U.S. As I said in an earlier note, coincidence that it is right near Election Day? I think not. I could understand the victory laps around that time if all of a sudden GM raises $60 billion through an IPO and the US taxpayer is no longer in the car business, but that has about much chance of happening as… (You can fill in the blank with the most ridiculous things you can think of). So to recap, General Motors filed for its IPO, indicated only $200 million as its minimum, and now we are back in the waiting game. So Dan Akerson (new GM CEO that takes the job September 1) has his first big challenge, getting the Company trading before the end of the year. Unfortunately, I think it will happen. By Thanksgiving, I expect to see the new shares of GM trading on both the NYSE and Toronto Stock Exchange ((TSX)). I would like to see the Company wait a little longer, further integrate its new finance arm and give the world economy time to get over the next little bump, but I wasn’t hired as part of the Auto Task Force. Disclosure: None Complete Story »
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| US Prepares For Gold Standard? Posted: 18 Aug 2010 12:42 PM PDT I have often written about the US Treasury and US Mint's very strange behavior when it comes to their part in continuing "business as usual" for the fiat monetary system. Although many have chalked up the Mint's rationing of Gold and Silver American Eagle coins to normal behavior of inept government employees and government bureaucracy, I have a much different take on the subject. I believe they are trying to DELAY and LIMIT the American Eagle program until such time as the US is ready to go back on a gold and silver standard. To understand this objective it helps to go back to a very important moment in our monetary past... It was March of 1982 when Reagan's Gold Commission released their final report on the "Role of Gold in the Domestic and International Monetary Systems". Although the Commission's recommendation was "no change necessary at the moment" the report was surprisingly frank about what the future might hold. The full report can be found here: What I found most interesting is the report's conclusion on page 21 which I explored in this article: Gold Standard Implementation Update It is clear to me that from as far back as 1982 the US Government was aware of the potential (or even the likelihood) of a need to return to a Gold Standard. More Here..Buy Silver And Gold Safely Here: Scottsdale Silver 
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||
| Adrian Douglas: The imminent failure of the second London Gold Pool Posted: 18 Aug 2010 12:40 PM PDT 8:37p ET Wednesday, August 18, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Manipulative selling of gold on the daily London PM fix has failed to suppress the gold price since April 2009, when China announced that it surreptitiously had accumulated a large gold reserve over the previous five years, GATA board member Adrian Douglas disclosed today in a statistical study. Since then, Douglas finds, ever-increasing dumping of gold in London by central banks and their bullion bank agents has been having less and less effect on the gold price. He concludes that the second "London Gold Pool" -- a clandestine one, unlike the first -- is imminently facing a collapse identical to the collapse of the first as physical gold demand overwhelms the ability or the desire of the market riggers to provide the necessary metal. Douglas' study is titled "The Failure of the Second London Gold Pool" and you can find it at GATA's Internet site here: http://www.gata.org/files/DouglasFailureOfSecondLondonGoldPool-08-18-201... And at the Internet site of Douglas' Market Force Analysis letter here: https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081810.html CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Sona Resources Expects Positive Cash Flow from Blackdome, On May 18, 2010, Sona Resources Corp. (TSXV: SYS, Frankfurt: QS7) announced the release of a preliminary economic assessment for gold production at its flagship Blackdome and Elizabeth properties in British Columbia. Sona Executive Chairman Nick Ferris says: "We view this as a baseline scenario for gold production. The project is highly sensitive to the price of gold. A conservative valuation of gold at $1,093 per ounce would result in a pre-tax cash flow of $54 million. The assessment indicates that underground mining at the two sites would recover 183,600 ounces of gold and 62,500 ounces of silver. Permitting and infrastructure are already in place for processing ore at the Blackdome mill, with a 200-tonne per day throughput over an eight-year mine life. Our near-term goal is to continue aggressive exploration at Elizabeth and develop a million-plus-ounce gold resource, commencing production in 2013." For complete information on Sona Resources Corp. please visit: www.SonaResources.com A Canadian gold opportunity ready for growth Join GATA here: Toronto Resource Investment Conference The Silver Summit New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy to Become Coal Producer This Year Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX.V: PCY) announced on May 11 that it has entered into a mine services agreement with Leighton Asia Ltd. to begin coal production this year. Production will begin with a 250,000-tonne starter pit as planned in August, with production advancing to 2 million tonnes per year in 2011. Prophecy is fully funded to production and its management team includes John Morganti, Arnold Armstrong, and Rob McEwen. For Prophecy's complete press release about its production plans, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_may11.php
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| Interactive Visualization Of The Bush Tax Cut Impact (And Obama's Proposed Tax Plan) Posted: 18 Aug 2010 12:26 PM PDT
The Washington Post has created the following terrific interactive chart demonstrating precisely what various impacts the three tax options would cost to i) the government and ii) to the taxpayer. The options are, obviously, allowing all cuts expire, the implementation of Obama's alternative plan, and the extension of all cuts. The first extreme case (full extension) will cost the government $3.7 trillion, and result in no incremental taxation; the other extreme - full tax cut expiration, would cost the government nothing, would increase the average tax rate from 20.8% to 23.5%, and would increase the incremental tax payments by the top earners by $372k annually. This will surely be to most heated topic heading into the mid-term elections.
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| A Big Mac to Go in China Please Posted: 18 Aug 2010 12:24 PM PDT
My former employer, The Economist, once the ever tolerant editor of my flabby, disjointed, and juvenile prose (Thanks Peter and Marjorie), has released its “Big Mac” index of international currency valuations (click here for the link at http://www.economist.com/node/16646178 ).
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2010 12:11 PM PDT An Interview with Doug Casey from Cafayate, Argentina [To read Part I of this interview, click here] Interviewer: Concerning the risk of foreign exchange controls here in the US, do you think people will have any warning at all? Doug: I think it's going to come out of left field. It always does, with at most an official denial just before it happens. In August 1971, Nixon devalued the dollar, which immediately dropped against gold and all foreign currencies. I think there's a reasonable probability that the government will do that again. Gold may not be part of the equation, but they may decide to put in some sort of fixed exchange rate between the dollar and various foreign currencies. The reason for thinking this is simple: with all the dollars outside the United States devalued by that much, that much of a liability just vanishes into thin air. And in the short term - it's never a long-term fix - US exports would go up. This would "stimulate" the domestic economy. Imports to the US would go down, which would make for fewer dollars leaving the US and adding to the $7 trillion overhang the US already has. Interviewer: I know you hate making predictions, but can you tell us if your "guru sense" is tingling on this so strongly that you think it could happen this year? Or is this more of a 2011 possibility? Doug: The timing on this is really unpredictable. These people don't have a plan. They're acting "ad hoc" to whatever seems most urgent. All the so-called "economists" around government today are really just political hacks. Their worldviews are totally unsound. Interviewer: With all the problems the US has, do you think this could happen now? Could we be reading about new exchange controls on CNN.com this afternoon? Doug: Sure. Although they typically pull these stunts over a weekend. I expect something of this nature to happen any time between tomorrow morning and two years from now. If some form of currency controls are not instituted within two years, I'm going to be genuinely surprised. So, if you're going to take action, you should start heading for the exits now. Not next month, and certainly not next year. Interviewer: For those who don't take action until it's too late, under the scenarios you mentioned, they'll still be able to get money out. It's just that it might be more difficult, time consuming, humiliating, and certainly more expensive to do. For every $100,000 they move, only $90,000, or $70,000, or whatever will get to where it's supposed to go. Can you foresee a more Stalinesque alternative, where they simply can't get anything out at all? Doug: Hopefully not. Anything is possible, and things can change so rapidly...but I'd hate to think of what conditions would be like if they ever became that draconian. It'd be so bad on other fronts that there would be all sorts of even more urgent things on your mind - Americans would get a very quick and unpleasant education in the real meaning of Maslow's hierarchy. Interviewer: Like the Mad Max-style neobarbarians at the door with a battering ram. Doug: Exactly - that's when you'll definitely want to be in more pleasant climes. I'd want to be watching it on my wide-screen, in comfort, not out my front window. Interviewer: We're talking about extremes here... Doug: You know, back in the 1970s there was a spate of books published on financial privacy. In those days, financial privacy was still possible. Now, it's not only no longer truly possible, short of embracing a completely outlaw lifestyle, it's very dangerous to write about it or even talk about it. I kid you not. These days, people who ask too many questions about privacy techniques may well be government stooges... There's lots of handwriting on the wall. All those books on financial privacy were published in the '70s - if you look on Amazon, you can still find them. But there's nothing really worth reading that's been written on the subject in 20 years. It's actively discouraged by the government. I could name - but I won't - at least two authors that got themselves into a real jackpot this way. Forget about the First Amendment. In fact, I even feel uncomfortable talking about it in this interview. So let me once again emphasize that I advise everyone to stay fully within the bounds of the law. That's not for moral reasons, of course; there is no morality to the law. It's strictly for reasons of practicality. Risk-reward ratio. Interviewer: Understood. Loud and clear. Any more investment implications, besides foreign real estate, that you want to draw attention to here? Doug: Yes - and it's another reason for those so very clever boys in Washington to embrace currency controls. They will be disastrous for the US economy, but there's a very good chance that, in the short run, they'll be very good for the stock market. That's partly for the reasons I already mentioned about it temporarily boosting US exports, and hence earnings of US exporters, but also because all that money that can't leave the US will have to go into something. Investors will probably want to put it into equity, rather than debt, while the dollar is depreciating. Again, it's disastrous over the long term, but as a short-term play, buying the blue chips the day the exchange controls are instituted could be a good move. Interviewer: You'd buy the Dow? Doug: I might, if I couldn't think of anything more intelligent or original to do. We'll just have to see what the situation is like. Interviewer: Thanks again, Doug - you've given us a lot to think about. Doug: My pleasure. The Casey Research Team,
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