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Friday, May 25, 2012

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


News That Matters

Posted: 24 May 2012 07:54 PM PDT

Ft.com
Some of Europe's biggest fund managers have confirmed they are dumping euro assets amid rising fears over a possible Greek exit from the eurozone and single currency turmoil. The euro's sudden fallthis month caught many investors by surprise. Europe's single currency has lost 5 per cent in the past three weeks after barely moving against the US dollar for much of the year. On Thursday, the euro hit a fresh 22-month low at $1.2514.http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/92f5c37a-a5a1-11e1-a77b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1vr0JKlSp

Europe's political leaders need to make a "brave leap" towards greater fiscal union to address the eurozone's deepening debt crisis, the head of the European Central Bank urged on Thursday. Mario Draghi said his institution may have bought the eurozone time through its massive injection of cash into Europe's banking system and sovereign bond markets but now it needed to embrace much closer integration. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/281e032c-a5b6-11e1-b77a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1vr0JKlSp

Wholesale brokerages including Knight Capital and Citadel suffered trading losses that could top $100m as a result of computer glitches in Nasdaq OMX's software on the morning of Facebook's trading debut last Friday. Problems with the exchange's trading software meant the brokers were unable to calculate their precise shareholdings in the social network through more than two hours of share trading, people close to the firms said.http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/68cc8164-a5c5-11e1-a3b4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1vr0JKlSp

Thetrader.se
With Monti creating a carbon copy move of yesterday, let's tune in to some thoughts by Biderman on the Facebook situation. By now there is no question that the Facebook IPO was totally screwed up. Not only was just about every aspect of the deal FUBARed, but the overall size of the deal, $18 billion, magnified the mess. Yes, Nasdaq and Morgan Stanley both did a horrible job. But ultimately the blame for the disaster is solely on Facebook's 28-year-old CEO Mark Zuckerberg. All final decisions regarding each aspect of the IPO had to be made by Zuckerberg. That is what CEOs do.http://www.thetrader.se/2012/05/24/zuckerberg-swings-and-misses-but/

 

Its crooked, cobbled streets crammed up against mist-shrouded mountains, the town of Corleone has long been synonymous with the Sicilian M afia, becoming infamous as the Tombstone town that gave birth to its most ferocious godfathers. But at the state funeral on Thursday of Placido Rizzotto, a trade unionist murdered by the Mafia in 1948, crowds of Corleone's inhabitants turned out in the hope that the honour finally granted to their local hero would deal another blow to "Cosa Nostra" even as it mutates into a multinational conglomerate that some call Mafia Inc.http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5cb41740-a5aa-11e1-a77b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1vr0JKlSp

India has threatened to ban European airlines from its airspace if Brussels sanctions Indian carriers in a dispute over an EU plan to charge carriers for their pollution.  "Travelling is always a two-way traffic," Ajit Singh, civil aviation minister, said in an interview. "If they can impose sanctions so can other countries."Last week 10 Chinese and Indian airlines refused to provide the EU with carbon emissions data the most serious revolt against Brussels' scheme to charge carriers for their pollution. The airlines risk being banned from flying to EU countries if they refuse to comply with its carbon emissions tradingscheme. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/aceffc00-a58d-11e1-a77b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1vr0JKlSp

Russia's new government bears all the marks of a country paralysed by infighting. On his return to the presidency, Vladimir Putin's priority seems to be maintaining the balance of power between the rival political clans that surround him. His strategy of balance and rule does the country little good, and in the long run hems him in as much as it preserves his supremacy. Dmitry Medvedev, the prime minister whom Mr Putin used to keep the presidential chair warm for him, is more sympathetic to reforms needed to modernise the top-heavy petro-state that is Russia. But if he expected greater opportunities to pursue a reformist agenda, he must be disappointed. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/63ffdd52-a5b6-11e1-a3b4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1vr0JJ0gA

Wsj.com
Business activity in the euro zone contracted at its steepest rate in nearly three years in May, a closely watched survey showed, as even powerful Germany buckled under the strain of southern Europe's escalating debt crisis.  The data compounded fears that Greece's possible exit from the euro zone has touched off a downward economic spiral that threatens strong and fragile countries alike. It also opened the door to additional stimulus from the European Central Bank via interest-rate cuts to spur growth, some economists said.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304707604577423562723731778.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories

The European Union on Friday is expected to file a complaint at the World Trade Organization challenging Argentina's import regulations, part of a plan to pressure President Cristina Kirchner on a range of policies that are angering the world's largest economies. EU officials say Argentina's decision last month to nationalize oil and gas producer YPF SA, YPF +7.80%a unit of Spanish oil company Repsol YPF SA, REP.MC +3.37%was only the most recent in a series of moves by Mrs. Kirchner's government that have harmed foreign investors and manufacturers. Friday's complaint at the WTO, the Geneva-based arbiter of trade disputes, won't mention the nationalization of YPF, which doesn't violate WTO rules, two of the EU officials said. But the nationalization has convinced European officials that more forceful action is needed to fix the deteriorating economic relationship between Europe and Argentina.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304840904577424443455858220.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories

As evidence gathers that the Chinese economy continued to slow in May, Beijing is outlining a series of steps to prop up growth, including targeted tax cuts and support for favored sectors like new energy technologies. The latest sign of weak economic performance came on Thursday, with HSBC Holdings PLC's purchasing managers index, which fell to a preliminary reading of 48.7 in May from 49.3 in April, indicating that manufacturing activity declined for the seventh straight month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction; above 50, expansion. The May PMI follows a series of weak readings for April on everything from foreign trade to bank lending. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304707604577423132457175816.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories

The J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. unit whose wrong-way bets on corporate credit cost the bank more than $2 billion includes a group that has invested in financially challenged companies, including LightSquared Inc., the wireless broadband provider that this month filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The investments raise new questions about the risks being taken by the bank's Chief Investment Office, or CIO, which J.P. Morgan has said is tasked primarily with investing excess cash and managing risks for the New York company.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304065704577424630055781026.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews

Lending stumbled in the first quarter after nearly a year of growth, deepening questions about the recovery and confidence of borrowers and bankers. Loan balances fell by more than $56 billion, or 0.8%, in the quarter ended March 31, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The quarter-over-quarter decline marks a reversal from three consecutive quarters in which lending expanded. While lending to larger commercial and industrial customers rose as it has for nearly two years, declines came in nearly all other types of loans, including those to smallhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304840904577425061070925698.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews

Asian markets edged downwards on Friday despite speculation by the Italian Prime Minister that Greece will remain in the euro zone, easing some concern about forthcoming Greek elections. Japan's Nikkei was flat, Australia's S&P ASX 200 fell 0.3%, and Korea's Kospi gained 0.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and Singapore's Straits Times Index both dropped 0.4%, while the China Shanghai  SE Composite was down 0.2%.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304840904577425061070925698.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews

Marketwatch.com
Bank profits in the first quarter of 2012 reached their highest quarterly income levels in nearly five years, a federal banking regulator said Thursday. "The condition of the industry continues to gradually improve," said Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg.  However, total bank loan and lease balances declined by $56 billion in the quarter, a situation that the agency chief said was "disappointing" after the industry saw three quarters of growth last year. Bank net income for the first quarter of 2012 was $35.3 billion, up by $6.6 billion from the first quarter of 2011. The FDIC said that once again lower provisions for loan losses contributed to earnings improvements. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fdic-bank-profits-at-highest-level-since-2007-2012-05-24-101035418

Downside risks to the economic outlook are a key reason for sticking to the current guidance that short-term interest rates are likely to remain ultra-low until late 2014, a key Fed official said Thursday. In a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations, William Dudley, the president of the New York Federal Reserve, noted that one popular academic rule for Fed monetary policy, developed by John Taylor at Stanford University, currently puts the best "liftoff date" for interest rates as sometime in 2013. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/downside-risks-key-to-late-2014-rate-hike-dudley-2012-05-24

Reuters.com
Blind Chinese activist Chen Guangcheng urged authorities in Beijing on Thursday to prosecute "lawless" officials who harassed and abused the self-taught lawyer, his family and supporters, saying such prosecutions could help China establish the rule of law. In one of his first interviews since arriving in the United States last Saturday, Chen told Reuters the rough treatment of his family and supporters who helped him escape house arrest last month was "entirely against Chinese law". http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/25/us-usa-chen-idUSBRE84N1CL20120525

n"Goldman Sachs Group Inc plans to channel investments totaling $40 billion over the next decade into renewable energy projects, an area the investment bank called one of the biggest profit opportunities since its economists got excited about emerging markets in 2001. Goldman executives said this week that demand for alternative energy sources will grow with global energy demand, and as big manufacturing countries, including China and Brazil, set more aggressive targets for reducing emissions. The bank plans to finance deals with clients' money and, to a lesser extent, its own fundshttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/23/goldman-green-idUSL1E8GMDPR20120523

Bloomberg.com
Detroit
, whose 139 square miles contain 60 percent fewer residents than in 1950, will try to nudge them into a smaller living space by eliminating almost half its streetlights.  As it is, 40 percent of the 88,000 streetlights are broken and the city, whose finances are to be overseen by an appointed board, can't afford to fix them. Mayor Dave Bing's plan would create an authority to borrow $160 million to upgrade and reduce the number of streetlights to 46,000. Maintenance would be contracted out, saving the city $10 million a year. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-24/half-of-detroit-s-streetlights-may-go-out-as-city-shrinks.html

China's stocks fell to a five-week low on concern bank lending is slumping and business conditions are deteriorating, adding pressure on the government to ease monetary policy to avert a deeper economic slowdown. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (601398) Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd. (3988) paced declines for lenders after three bank officials with knowledge of the matter said China's biggest banks may fall short of loan targets for the first time in at least seven years. SAIC Motor Corp. (600104) slid more than 2 percent as automakers slumped on the prospect car financing may be more difficult as banks curtail loans. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-25/china-s-stocks-drop-to-5-week-low-on-lending-slowdown-concerns.html

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh seeks to make up lost ground in the charge to secure resources and business ties in Myanmar when he next week becomes India's first leader to visit its eastern neighbor in a quarter of a century. India, which in British colonial days oversaw the monetary and financial system of what was then Burma, ranked 13th last year in investments in Myanmar, with $189 million pledged in five projects, according to data compiled by IHS Global Insight. China led with $8.3 billion, and South Korea, whose president visited Myanmar earlier this month, pledged $2.95 billion.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-24/india-plays-catch-up-on-myanmar-as-china-south-korea-rush-in.html

Facebook Inc. (FB) may fall more than 42 percent below its initial public offering price by the end of the year, according to bets by structured-product investors. The most actively traded structured products tied to Facebook since its IPO have been so-called put warrants, whose buyers profit if the shares drop below a pre-defined level, in some cases as low as $22, data compiled by Bloomberg show. UBS AG (UBSN), Commerzbank AG (CBK) and Julius Baer Group Ltd. (BAER) are among lenders that listed 1,504 warrants and certificates in Europe linked to shares of the social networking site that were offered at $38. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-23/facebook-at-22-by-december-seen-in-europe-s-structured-warrants.html

Cnbc.com
As talk of Greece leaving the euro zone intensifies, two money experts offered competing investment strategies. "I don't believe the Greeks leave the euro. If they did, it would bring the most severe penalty down upon the people of Greece first and foremost," Stifel Nicolaus market strategist Kevin Caron said Thursday on CNBC's "The Kudlow Report." Yet while Caron thought Greece's exit from the euro was unlikely, he also imagined that the process could go one of two ways. http://www.cnbc.com/id/47560002

Cnn.com
Buying a home got even cheaper this week as interest rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage set a record low for the fourth week in a row.  The 30-year fixed mortgage, the most popular mortgage product, dipped slightly to 3.78% from 3.79% last week, according to a weekly survey by Freddie Mac. Last year, 30-year loans averaged 4.60%. The new low can save borrowers $48 a month for every $100,000 borrowed. Over a 30-year term, that comes to $17,217 compared to last year. http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/24/real_estate/mortgage-rates/index.htm?cnn=yes

Foxbusiness.com
Japan's consumer prices stuck to an inflationary path in April, with the Finance Ministry reporting Friday that the core consumer price index rose 0.2% from a year earlier, identical to its gain for March. Separate Dow Jones Newswires and Reuters surveys had found expectations for the core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh-food prices, to rise 0.1%. On a monthly basis, core CPI was also 0.2% higher, led by a 2.1% rise in clothing and footwear. The overall CPI, meanwhile, rose 0.1% in April, for a 0.4% year-on-year gain. Japan is seeking to end a long, sporadic spell of deflation,http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2012/05/24/japan-consumer-prices-rise-steadily-in-april/#ixzz1vr5cMblG

USAtoday.com
Index forecasts weaker growth.The May update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 2.0% during the summer months. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue. The index predicts future real GDP growth (gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation) based on 11 leading economic and financial indicators. Five of the 11 indicators were positive in May, down from eight in April.http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/Economic-Outlook/35290148/1

Washingtonpost.com
The European Central Bank, which has spent more than 1 trillion euros ($1.25 trillion) to cap surging borrowing costs in nations such as Spain and Italy, is saying it can do little more to halt the crisis until governments act. "On the one hand we have the ECB, and then we have euro- zone governments," said Michael Leister, a rates strategist at DZ Bank AG in Frankfurt. "The ECB is really reluctant to do anything. It would be very difficult for the ECB to justify another intervention if politicians don't deliver." Governments need to take "a brave leap" to ensure closer integration, without which the central bank can only offer temporary solutions, according to ECB President Mario Draghi. Politicians such as Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy say the central bank should implement additional measures including boosting bond purchases. http://washpost.bloomberg.com/story?docId=1376-M4J46U0YHQ0X01-0K05KIOLOL5JT7LG6B4IO509NG

BBC.co.uk
The UK economy shrank by 0.3% in the first three months of the year, more than previously thought, revised figures have shown. Last month's initial estimate from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed a contraction of 0.2%. The downward revision was due to a bigger contraction in construction output than previously estimated. Over the last year and a half, the economy hashttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18187354

Telegraph.co.uk
An end to the era of free banking moved closer last night after the Treasury Select Committee threw its support behind plans for banks to introduce current account charges. Andrew Tyrie, chairman of the committee, urged regulators to clear away any obstacles stopping banks from charging and to bring the 28-year-old practice to an end. A groundswell of support for change is understood to be gathering among the authorities. The Treasury's advisers on the Independent Commission on Banking and the Office of Fair Trading are said to be also backing the proposals, alongside the treasury select committee and financial regulators. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9288736/Momentum-gathers-to-end-free-banking.html

Economists have warned of a fresh threat to the recovery after official figures showed that the country is being propped up by "unsustainable" Government spending. The concerns emerged after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the double-dip recession was even worse than feared. The economy shrank by 0.3pc in the first quarter of the year, the ONS said in its second estimates, rather than the 0.2pc initially thought. Government spending hit record levels in the three months to March in spite of the austerity drive, rising by 1.6pc to £81.5bn and delivering 0.4 percentage points of overall economic growth. However, the taxpayer-funded boost was not enough to offset weak activity in construction, trade and the financial sector.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9288398/Government-spending-prevents-worse-double-dip-recession.html

Le Grand Depart has started early. High-earning Parisians who normally escape the French capital for the month of August have already crossed the Channel. Following the socialist triumph in the French election, aristocrats and bankers have requested transfers to the City.  And La Mondiale Europartner, the wealth management subsidiary of France's fourth-biggest insurer AG2R La Mondiale, wasn't far behind. It threw a London launch party at Bentley's Oyster Bar and Grill in Mayfair this week, hosted by chief executive Fabrice Sauvignon. Of course. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/alex/9287106/French-bankers-miss-a-left-turn-and-head-to-UK.html

Spain is to partially close 30 of the nation's 47 state-run airports in an attempt to reduce the costs of its "white elephants" built throughout the nation during the boom years. Some of the airports have no scheduled flights yet are fully staffed and operational in what has come to symbolise the r


Wall Street Journal says Comex has been classified as 'too big to fail'

Posted: 24 May 2012 06:09 PM PDT

A Mess the 45th President Will Inherit

Taxpayers Now Stand Behind Derivatives Clearinghouses

From the Wall Street Journal
Thursday, May 24, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230484090457742239316410627...

President Obama's standard gripe is that the economy has performed so poorly during his term because of the financial crisis he inherited from George W. Bush. But this week it is Mr. Obama who has bequeathed to his successors a landmark in financial regulation. It is bound to haunt them, though not as much as it will haunt taxpayers.

J.P. Morgan's recent trading loss and the resulting Washington blather about tighter regulation have grabbed headlines.

Little noticed is that on Tuesday Team Obama took its first formal steps toward putting taxpayers behind Wall Street derivatives trading -- not behind banks that might make mistakes in derivatives markets, but behind the trading itself. Yes, the same crew that rails against the dangers of derivatives is quietly positioning these financial instruments directly above the taxpayer safety net.

As we noted in May 2010, the authority for this regulatory achievement was inserted into Congress's pending financial reform bill by then-Senator Chris Dodd. Two months later, the legislation was re-named Dodd-Frank and signed into law by Mr. Obama. One part of the law forces much of the derivatives market into clearinghouses that stand behind every trade. Mr. Dodd's pet provision creates a mechanism for bailing out these clearinghouses when they run into trouble.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



Specifically, the law authorizes the Federal Reserve to provide "discount and borrowing privileges" to clearinghouses in emergencies. Traditionally the ability to borrow from the Fed's discount window was reserved for banks, but the new law made clear that a clearinghouse receiving assistance was not required to "be or become a bank or bank holding company." To get help, they only needed to be deemed "systemically important" by the new Financial Stability Oversight Council chaired by the Treasury Secretary.

Last year regulators finalized rules for how they would use this new power. On Tuesday, they began using it. The Financial Stability Oversight Council secretly voted to proceed toward inducting several derivatives clearinghouses into the too-big-to-fail club. After further review, regulators will make final designations, probably later this year, and will announce publicly the names of institutions deemed systemically important.

We're told that the clearinghouses of Chicago's CME Group and Atlanta-based Intercontinental Exchange were voted systemic this week, and rumor has it that the council may even designate London-based LCH.Clearnet as critical to the U.S. financial system.

U.S. taxpayers thinking that they couldn't possibly be forced to stand behind overseas derivatives trading will not be comforted by remarks from Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler. On Monday he emphasized his determination to extend Dodd-Frank derivatives regulation to overseas markets when subsidiaries of U.S. firms are involved.

Readers know Mr. Gensler as the chief regulator of MF Global, which was run into bankruptcy by his old Beltway and Goldman Sachs pal Jon Corzine. An estimated $1.6 billion is still missing from MF Global customer accounts. What an amazing feat Mr. Gensler will have performed if, through his agency's oversight, he can manage to have U.S. customers eat the cost of Mr. Corzine's bets on foreign debt and have U.S. taxpayers underwrite bets in foreign derivatives trading.

If there's one truth we've learned about government financial backstops, it's that sooner or later they will be used. So eventually taxpayers will have to bail out one derivatives clearinghouse or another. It promises to be quite a mess. And if the 45th president spends his first term whining about his predecessor's mistakes, he'll have a point.

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Prophecy Platinum (TSXV: NKL) and Ursa Major Minerals
Sign Combination Agreement

Company Press Release
Friday, March 2, 2012

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) and Ursa Major Minerals Inc. have signed a binding letter of agreement for a business combination through a proposed all-share transaction. In doing so Prophecy and Ursa have acted at arm's length and the transaction has been negotiated at arm's length.

Prophecy will issue one common share in exchange for every 25 outstanding common shares of Ursa. Ursa options and warrants will be exchanged for options and warrants of Prophecy on an agreed schedule.

Prophecy's offer represents a value of about $0.15 per each common share of Ursa based on Prophecy's share price of $3.70 as at March 1, representing a premium of 130 percent to Ursa's March 1 closing price of $0.065.

Prophecy is to subscribe for $1 million common shares of Ursa by way of private placement financing at $0.06 per share, subject to regulatory approval. Upon placement completion, John Lee and Greg Hall, current Prophecy directors, will be appointed to Ursa's board.

Prophecy thus will become a mid-tier resource company with a robust and diversified pipeline of platinum nickel projects, including:

-- The fully permitted open-pit Shakespeare PGM-Ni-Cu mine close to Sudbury, Ontario, infrastructure with near-term production capabilities.

-- The flagship Wellgreen (Yukon) PGM-Ni-Cu project with more than 10 million ounces of Pt-Pd-Au inferred resource. Drilling is under way and a preliminary economic assessment study is pending.

-- Manitoba's Lynn Lake Ni-Cu project with more than 262 million pounds Ni and 138 million pounds Cu measured and indicated.

For the complete announcement, please visit Prophecy Platinum's Internet site here:

http://www.prophecyplat.com/news_2012_mar02_prophecy_platinum_ursa_major...



Ron Hera and Alasdair Macleod On Why Gold Will Reemerge as a Safe Haven

Posted: 24 May 2012 05:43 PM PDT

Hera Research


So Whats Up with the Gold Price?

Posted: 24 May 2012 05:39 PM PDT

Bullion Vault


Agenda 21′s Globalist Death Plan for Humanity

Posted: 24 May 2012 05:38 PM PDT

Lord Monckton exposes those who hold the creed that 'the real enemy is humanity itself.'

from TheAlexJonesChannel:

Lord Christopher Monckton joins Aaron in-studio today, Wednesday, May 23. Monckton is a British politician, public speaker, former newspaper editor, and a spirited critic of the globalist theory of anthropogenic global warming. Mr. Monckton is in the United States to attend the libertarian Heartland Institute's conference in Chicago.

At the U.N. Summit at Rio in 1992, the Conference Secretary-General, Maurice Strong, said "Isn't the only hope for this planet that the industrialized civilization collapse? Isn't it our responsibility to bring that about?"

"The common enemy of humanity is man. In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill. The real enemy then is humanity itself." – From the Club of Rome's "The First Global Revolution" p. 75 1993
http://archive.org/stream/TheFirstGlobalRevolution#page/n1/mode/2up

"Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell tolls, It tolls for thee."
- John Donne (1572-1631)


Silver Update 5/24/12 Bond Balloon

Posted: 24 May 2012 04:50 PM PDT

Rick Rule - Three Things That Will End This Bear Market

Posted: 24 May 2012 04:46 PM PDT

Today King World News interviewed one of the wealthiest and most street-smart pros in the business, Rick Rule. Investors have been incredibly worried about the plunge in stocks, and mining shares, but Rule told KWN that one of several things that will end the bear market in gold shares is takeovers. He also warned, "the big picture for Europe is bleak." Rule, who is now part of Sprott Asset Management had this to say about what is happening in the markets: "We have a market where I think the leadership will switch from an institutional buyer to an industry buyer. Meaning that when the market resumes higher, it will be driven by companies that will be taken over by industry, rather than companies that exhibit things like leverage to gold."


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

GOLD: 5000 Year History of Being MONEY – Andy Schectman

Posted: 24 May 2012 04:28 PM PDT

New Legislation Targets FDA Raids: “We Have Too Many Armed Federal Agencies and We Need to Put an End to This”

Posted: 24 May 2012 03:37 PM PDT

The US Food and Drug Administration, charged with keeping America's food supply safe for consumption, has gone from regulator to armed enforcer, with the most notable recent actions by the agency focusing on small farmers, retailers and individuals who engage in the illegal practice of … get this … drinking milk directly from the cow. But It's not just dairy products. The FDA has also targeted fruit and vegetable producers, as well as providers of natural medicines that have been been used for generations to cure everything from constipation to serious medical illnesses.

The crimes are considered so serious that the FDA has deployed armed federal agents and local SWAT teams with complete impunity in an effort to curb the distribution of these dangerous products.

If it were up to the FDA, all naturally grown organic foods and food practices would be criminalized and we'd all be subject to consuming engineered genetically modified foods, synthetic vitamins, and cocktails of pharmaceutical drugs to control our moods and emotions.

As is the case with most federal agencies, the FDA and large mega corporations have an incestuous relationship that has led to extreme regulation of any foods or products that may pose a competitive risk to pharmaceutical companies and large scale food production conglomerates. At the behest of these billion dollar giants, the FDA has taken measures to effectively silence those who would pose a threat to their business model by shutting down businesses and imprisoning their operators. Read more.....


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Why we’re nowhere near the mania phase in precious metals

Posted: 24 May 2012 03:15 PM PDT

by Simon Black, Sovereign Man :

…Gold and silver's real breakout will be when the average, everyday guy has signed up to receive gold price SMS alerts to his smart phone and has the local coin dealer on speed dial.

Just like the real estate bubble in the early 2000s when every Tom, Dick, and Harry was flipping off-plan condos in Miami, precious metals will enter bubble territory when the masses get into the market.

It may be a bumpy ride for precious metals as the euro crisis continues to unfold… but it's clear that we're a long way off from the Joe Six-Pack mania phase.

Read More @ SovereignMan.com


Before You Get The Clever Idea Of Leaving the Country With Your Physical Gold…..

Posted: 24 May 2012 02:00 PM PDT

'Top five gold commentators' all have GATA connection

Posted: 24 May 2012 01:25 PM PDT

9:22p ET Thursday, May 24, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Will Bancroft of The Real Asset Co. in London has identified those he considers the top five gold commentators in the world -- gold trader, educator, and mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair; Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies; Sprott Asset Management CEO Eric Sprott; GoldMoney founder and Free Gold Money Report editor James Turk; and geopolitical analyst, author, and investment banker James G. Rickards.

What do these five have in common? For starters, they all spoke at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London last August. They also are often interviewed by King World News.

Bancroft adds that he would have liked to include the late Swiss gold banker and author Ferdinand Lips, who died in 2005 just weeks before he was to have spoken at GATA's Gold Rush 21 conference in Dawson City, Yukon Territory, Canada. Lips' address, titled "Three Revolutions," was delivered to the GATA conference by his business partner, J.P. Schumacher, and is posted at the Lips Institute's Internet site here:

http://lips-institute.ch/en/wp-content/uploads/file/speeches_pdf/Three_R...

In his book, "Gold Wars," published in 2001, Lips wrote that in the United States, "in spite of its concentration of huge financial and political powers, one still finds courageous men ready to speak up for honest business practices and freedom. Such people are Bill Murphy and Chris Powell, who set up GATA. Their goal is to restore gold to a free and transparent market."

GATA gold market rigging lawsuit litigator Reginald H. Howe memorialized Lips here:

http://www.goldensextant.com/In%20Memoriam%20Lips.html

Bancroft's commentary is headlined "The Top Five Gold Commentators" and it's posted at The Real Asset Co.'s Internet site here:

http://therealasset.co.uk/gold-investment-quintet/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy Platinum (TSXV: NKL) and Ursa Major Minerals
Sign Combination Agreement

Company Press Release
Friday, March 2, 2012

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) and Ursa Major Minerals Inc. have signed a binding letter of agreement for a business combination through a proposed all-share transaction. In doing so Prophecy and Ursa have acted at arm's length and the transaction has been negotiated at arm's length.

Prophecy will issue one common share in exchange for every 25 outstanding common shares of Ursa. Ursa options and warrants will be exchanged for options and warrants of Prophecy on an agreed schedule.

Prophecy's offer represents a value of about $0.15 per each common share of Ursa based on Prophecy's share price of $3.70 as at March 1, representing a premium of 130 percent to Ursa's March 1 closing price of $0.065.

Prophecy is to subscribe for $1 million common shares of Ursa by way of private placement financing at $0.06 per share, subject to regulatory approval. Upon placement completion, John Lee and Greg Hall, current Prophecy directors, will be appointed to Ursa's board.

Prophecy thus will become a mid-tier resource company with a robust and diversified pipeline of platinum nickel projects, including:

-- The fully permitted open-pit Shakespeare PGM-Ni-Cu mine close to Sudbury, Ontario, infrastructure with near-term production capabilities.

-- The flagship Wellgreen (Yukon) PGM-Ni-Cu project with more than 10 million ounces of Pt-Pd-Au inferred resource. Drilling is under way and a preliminary economic assessment study is pending.

-- Manitoba's Lynn Lake Ni-Cu project with more than 262 million pounds Ni and 138 million pounds Cu measured and indicated.

For the complete announcement, please visit Prophecy Platinum's Internet site here:

http://www.prophecyplat.com/news_2012_mar02_prophecy_platinum_ursa_major...



Join GATA here:

Vancouver World Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, June 3-4, 2012
Vancouver Convention Centre East
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/world-resource-investment-conference

Standard Chartered's Earth Resources Conference
Wednesday-Thursday, June 20-21, 2012
J.W. Marriott, Hong Kong
http://www.standardcharteredsignatureevents.com/earths-resources/welcome...

Hong Kong Gold Investment Forum
Monday-Wednesday, June 25-27, 2012
Renaissance Harbour View Hotel, Hong Kong
http://www.hkgoldinvestmentforum.com/

Toronto Resource Investment Conference
Thursday-Friday, September 27-28, 2012
Toronto Sheraton Centre Hotel
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen...

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://www.neworleansconference.com/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



The Gold Price Closed $1,557.30 up $9.20

Posted: 24 May 2012 11:39 AM PDT

Gold Price Close Today : 1,557.30
Change : 9.20 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 28.14
Change : .63 or 2.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,420.60
Change : 8.30 or 0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 587.40
Change : -3.55 or -0.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.34
Change : -0.95 or 0.98%

Dow Industrial : 12,496.15
Change : -6.66 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index : 82.03
Change : 0.28 or 0.3%

Franklin will be away until June 4th and wont be publishing commentary until that time.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.


Here’s the REAL DEAL NO BS Situation with Europe (Warning What Follows is EXTREMELY BAD).

Posted: 24 May 2012 09:55 AM PDT

 

Here’s the REAL DEAL NO BS Situation with Europe (Warning What Follows is EXTREMELY BAD).

 

The media is rife with misrepresentations and analysis of the EU. Here’s the real deal.

 

  1. The ECB is tapped out. Having provided over €1 trillion in funding via LTRO 1 and LTRO 2, taking on over €700 billion in PIIGS debt putting its own solvency at risk, it simply cannot launch another LTRO scheme for the following reasons:
    1. Those banks accepting LTRO funding are being punished by the market, thereby indicating that ECB funding is no financially toxic to a firm’s reputation in the market place
    2. The positive effects of LTRO 2 lasted only one month compared to several months for LTRO 1. Thus, we find that with each additional intervention the benefits are shorter lasting.

 

  1.  The Federal Reserve cannot step in. I know the blogosphere is rife with claims that the Fed will just print and print and print to save the day. The people writing these claims fail to see that:
    1. The last time the Fed printed (just $600 billion at that) food prices hit all time records and revolutions erupted around the world.
    2. Back home in the US the Fed came under massive political pressure forcing it to go on damage control mode (Bernanke’s town hall meetings and opening the Fed to Q&A sessions)
    3. This is an election year. The Fed has done all it can to support Obama’s re-election (for good reasons: Obama re-elected Bernanke and the GOP is targeting the Fed as a major issue). If the Fed launched some massive printing campaign, Obama will certainly lose.

 

  1. The IMF cannot step in because:
    1. It’s ultimately a US-backed entity
    2. The political environment in the US will not tolerate a bailout of the EU (see the negative political reaction to the Fed’s moves to lower Dollar swap costs during November 2011).
    3. This is an election year: how many times has the IMF asked for additional funding and been rejected?

 

  1. Germany is politically fed up and monetarily tapped out:
    1. Merkel’s political party is getting destroyed in state elections due to her support of the EU. And Merkel is running for re-election in 2013.
    2. Merkel is committing political suicide by continuing to put Germany on the hook for Europe’s problems. Speaking of which…
    3. Germany is already on the hook for over €1 trillion in EU losses… and the ECB has made it so that it can roll the losses from its PIIGS portfolio back onto National Central Banks (AKA the Bundesbank).
    4. Inflation is showing up in Germany and becoming a political issue: see recent union demands (and success) for pay raises.
    5. The German constitution does not permit the creation of Eurobonds.
    6. If Germany permits additional bailouts or funding it will lose its AAA rating, leaving Europe without an AAA rated large economy to fall back on.

 

  1. China cannot be a savior:
    1. Having pumped its system full of liquidity it now faces inflation at the same time as its economy is slowing. This in turn means…
    2. That China’s Government is starting to lose its already tenuous control of the populace. As a result…
    3. China will be focusing on domestic issues rather than saving Europe (when was the last time the “China to back the EU” story appeared in the media?)
  2. Germany and others have already taken steps to prepare for a break-up of the EU. In Germany’s case:
    1. It’s re-instated its emergency bailout fund providing €480 billion in potential assistance to Germany banks in case of a Crisis.
    2. German banks will be permitted to dump their EU bonds into the emergency fund if need be.
    3. German corporations with operations in Greece have put clauses in their contracts to allow for the acceptance of the Drachma.

 

  1. The ECB has taken similar actions permitting it to roll back the losses from its PIIGS holdings onto National Central Banks.

 

  1. Spain is on the verge of a banking collapse. Its efforts to deal with an insolvent banking system by merging crappy banks and shifting losses onto its public balance sheet are proving to be absolute failures due to the fact that:
    1. Total Spanish banking loans are equal to 170% of Spanish GDP.
    2. Troubled loans at Spanish Banks just hit an 18-year high.
    3. Spanish banks need to rollover 20% of their debt this year.
    4. Spanish private sector debt is nearly 300% of Spanish GDP.

 

In plain terms, having spent two years and hundreds of billions (even TRILLIONS of Euros) dealing with the EU Crisis, the powers that be over there have backed themselves into a corner from which they cannot escape. Let me be blunt:

 

THERE IS NO ENTITY ON EARTH THAT CAN BAILOUT EUROPE.

 

It’s game over for that idea. And the idea that one bankrupt nation (even Germany sports a REAL Debt to GDP of over 200% when you include unfunded liabilities) prop up several others is ridiculous.

 

And all of this is happening at the precise time that Spain is about to implode.

 

This is the REAL DEAL for Europe. Anyone who has some kind of counter-argument to these points either doesn’t understand the political environment we’ve entered (even Central Banks are fed up with bowing to political pressure from politicians) or is simply hoping that by ignoring these realities they (the realities) will go away.

 

They won’t. Europe’s banking system as a whole is at risk a la 2008. And it’s nearly four times the seize of the US banking system.

 

So if you’re not already taking steps to prepare for the coming collapse, you need to do so now. The US will not escape from this unscathed. No one will. The global banking system is too interconnected: some estimates put US exposure in the ballpark of several TRILLION Dollars.

 

I recently published a report showing investors how to prepare for this. It’s called How to Play the Collapse of the European Banking System and it explains exactly how the coming Crisis will unfold as well as which investment (both direct and backdoor) you can make to profit from it.

 

This report is 100% FREE. You can pick up a copy today at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com

 

Good Investing!

 

Graham Summers

 

PS. We also feature numerous other reports ALL devoted to helping you protect yourself, your portfolio, and your loved ones from the Second Round of the Great Crisis. Whether it’s a US Debt Default, runaway inflation, or even food shortages and bank holidays, our reports cover how to get through these situations safely and profitably.

 

 


CME Lowers Margin for Gold Futures

Posted: 24 May 2012 09:37 AM PDT

On Thursday, May 24, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc., Clearing House Risk Management announced lower initial bond and maintenance (margin) requirements for 100-ounce gold futures contracts (GC). 

Initial bond requirements decline 10% for Spec traders from $10,125 to $9,113 per 100-ounce contract. Initial bond rates for Hedge traders drop 10% from $7,500 to $6,750 per contract.

Maintenance (margin) requirements for both Spec and Hedger members dip 10% from $7,500 to $6,750 per contract.

Similar margin reductions were announced for the COMEX  "MINY Gold Futures" (QO) and 10-ounce contracts (MGC).  

The new rates will be effective after the close of business on Tuesday, May 29, 2012.

May 24, 2012 (Source: CME Group)

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv12-221.pdf


The Facebook IPO Fallout

Posted: 24 May 2012 09:28 AM PDT

Synopsis: 

Revealed: Why the Facebook IPO face-plant could be seen coming from a long ways away, and what the fallout may mean for some players.


Dear Fellow Technophiles,

Some issues in events in popular society are simply too big to be missed. The OJ trial. A "Royal Wedding." Facebook's IPO. In all the aforementioned cases, I did my own personal best to be as far from the action as possible when the fateful day came. It's not a lack of interest, but just a time-tested life lesson that the real opportunities in life are where the circus has yet to land.

Still, at Casey Research we're not content to simply write off a profit-making opportunity to "carnie wisdom." And thus, we took a hard and close look at the Facebook IPO for Casey Extraordinary Technology subscribers. The result of that detailed analysis? Stay as far out of the way as you can. We made sure that subscribers understood that given the "muppet demand" on one side, the insiders cashing out on the other, and the banks taking billion-dollar paydays for nothing other than their government-mandated oligopolic postions in the middle, there was no play for a smart individual investor, long or short.

Yet even we didn't see the Nasdaq's side. So, despite our desire to turn our attention back to the companies still creating value for individual investors, we felt little choice but to delve one last time into the IPO waters to try to explain why, only six days later, we find accusations of malfeasance being thrown around like confetti, lawsuits mounting, and big questions now being asked. So, our own Adam Crawford tries to break down one of the most complex financial events of the decade in 1,000 words or so of as plain an English as can be done.

Sincerely,


Alex Daley
Chief Technology Investment Strategist, Casey Research


Facebook, Investors and Banks All Face Major Challenges on the Back of a Botched IPO

By Adam J. Crawford, Junior Analyst

In less than a week's time, the Facebook IPO has gone from the most-hyped technology event since Google went public into "blame-storming" mode. Details concerning the stock's sudden drop, the market's inability to process orders, and the (mis)behavior of insiders are starting to emerge. And it doesn't look good.

The Scandal

When any stock drops as much out of the gate as Facebook has – down as much as 25% peak to trough in the days since the public premier of the stock – people start asking big questions... even more so when that stock carries a $50-billion-plus market cap, meaning the loss triggered billions in paper losses. Add on the fact that the Nasdaq market computers crumbled under the activity, and the scrutiny is intense.

What's been uncovered so far is painting a picture of poorly managed expectations and questionable ethics. The key event behind the drop appears to be a massive shift in expectations from institutional investors at the last minute.

Evidently, a Facebook executive – at this stage we can only guess who – alerted analysts that previously issued revenue estimates were a bit optimistic. Shortly thereafter, the analysts took the unusual step of slashing revenue estimates during Facebook's IPO roadshow. The information was then relayed to a select few potential institutional buyers. The financial community calls this "selective disclosure." I call it BS.

To make matters worse, Morgan Stanley (the lead underwriter and one of a select group of banks privy to the lower estimates) actually raised the offering price and issued more shares publicly, despite cutting the revenue estimate behind closed doors. Initially, Facebook shares surged due in large part to robust retail demand. However, once gravity took hold, Morgan Stanley chose to step in and provide some temporary support at the original offering price of $38 a share. The bank stepped into the market and bought millions of shares back from the public. It was able to do so without risking much capital thanks to the massive "greenshoe" allotment it took at the IPO – a gift of nonexistent shares the bank can sell risk free to the public if they have the demand. Stock goes up, and Morgan Stanley can force Facebook to cough up more shares, diluting investors and pocketing the profit. Stock goes down, and Morgan Stanley can buy them back below the IPO price, wiping out the excess volume and pocketing the price difference. Not bad deal, eh? Thankfully, most banks do exercise some level of ethical caution with those overallotment shares and use the process to instead stabilize the market, as happened with the over 60 million shares Morgan Stanley bought back from investors.

Consequently, Facebook shares stabilized and ended the trading day flat.

Facebook's humdrum opening-day performance was a minor disappointment for speculative investors hoping to flip shares for a quick profit. The minor disappointment soon morphed into a major disappointment for all shareholders, once rumors spread about the behind-the-scene shenanigans mentioned above. One look at the stock chart will show you the unpleasant Monday-morning surprise shareholders arose to the next trading day.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Facebook shares have since settled near $32 a share but remain exceedingly temperamental. A skilled trader could probably make a few bucks off this volatility (but a day trader I am not, so I can't help you there). As far as Facebook's long-term potential goes, I can offer a quick analysis.

The Future Outlook

Despite our decrying of the trading practices of Wall-Street banks, when dealing with a company of this size and whose relationships with the banks run this deep, one of the best sources of data on the company will remain the consensus opinion of their research arms. Below are their earnings-per-share growth estimates for the next three years:

As you can see, earnings growth is projected to slow to 21% by 2014. That's exactly the growth rate Google – a company with nearly 10 times the annual revenue of Facebook – is estimating for 2012. And for that kind of projected growth, the market places a value of 18.5 earnings on Google's stock. Let's be generous and award Facebook a 25 multiple for 21% growth. A little back-of-the-envelope math suggests that would place its value at about $20/share ($.80 EPS x 25) three years from now!

Coming at this from another direction, let's assume that cash flow and net income will be the same in the years ahead. Let's further assume the same growth rates shown above for 2012-2014 and add these rates for subsequent years:

When we apply a 10% discount rate to these data, we come up with a discounted cash flow valuation of $27.

With either approach, Facebook appears to be overvalued based on the ultimate arbiter of value, profitability. But the picture may be even worse than we've painted. Every assumption depends on tremendous – yes, slowing, but still on the "billions of dollars per year" scale – growth; and there are red flags popping up all over the place in that regard. Here are a few:

  • General Motors, questioning their effectiveness, recently withdrew its display ads on Facebook. (Speaking of General Motors, Facebook's market cap is bigger than GM's and Ford's combined!)
  • Revenue from advertising on mobile devices is likely to disappoint; the screens are simply too small and commerce activities less common and for lower value, to be as effective at advertising.
  • In his IPO letter, founder Mark Zuckerberg wrote: "We don't build services to make money; we make money to build services". In other words, maximizing revenue is not his priority. He is reluctant to extend ads beyond a certain point because he believes they become intrusive and compromise the experience. Noble as this may be, it will hamper the growth needed to justify the stock's lofty valuation. Of course, Zuckerberg is a billionaire still at $27, $20, even $5 for the stock…

The Winners and Losers

With the company's stock dropping, retail investors getting the hose, and profit opportunities coming, did any of the stakeholders win in the IPO process?

The primary loser in Facebook's market debut appears to be the retail investors, because they were sold shares at an inflated price, based on inflated estimates that the investment banks making them knew to be wrong. However, it's possible that Facebook will turn out to be a profitable investment still; and if it is, my hat's off to you for taking the leap – we were busy focusing on opportunities with the odds more in our favor.

A close second in the loser category is Nasdaq. The exchange lacked the technology to properly handle the massive order flow, an ironic twist for the de facto "technology exchange," and the original electronic trading platform that once decried the failures of the NYSE to meet customer demand. As a result, many orders were either delayed or altogether failed to process. Obviously, the botched job could cost the exchange future business.

The primary winner is Mr. Zuckerberg for numerous reasons… 19.1 billion or so little green ones.

His cohorts also did fairly well, too. Here are just a few examples:

Facebook employees made out well on the deal, too… at least the ones there early enough to get sizable grants. We'll know pretty soon just how many millionaires the event created, we're sure – but it's safe to assume quite a few. Let's just hope for their sakes that the reality of earnings potential doesn't hit too hard before their lockout periods expire.

In addition, some savvy traders apparently got in near the offering price and jumped ship in the $40s – probably a high-frequency trading firm or two.

The underwriters (e.g., Morgan Stanley) go into the "yet to be determined" category. Sure, they made a mint on the deal, but they also have drawn the attention of the busybodies in Washington, D.C. And any time Washington busts out the red tape, we all lose.

We also like to believe that Casey Extraordinary Technology investors were also winners in the process. They had straightforward advice to avoid what has proven to be a disaster of an IPO for both buyers and short sellers alike. But being successful at choosing what not to invest in is generally a much simpler task than finding the opportunities that do legitimately contain a solid chance of producing outsize returns.

We believe, though, that we have proven ourselves there as well, which is why we publish a full track record of all of our picks in each and every issue. In fact, we have a handful of promising biotechnology companies in particular which we think are excellent buys right now.

So I encourage you to take CET for a spin for 90 days. If you don't think you'll make your money back and then some after seeing what we have in store, then just hit reply and tell us so – we'll refund every dime you paid. But – surer than betting on the Facebook face-plant, I'm willing to bet that you will stick around once you see what we can do for your portfolio.


Bits & Bytes

Private Company Sends Spacecraft to Space Station (Space.com)

At about 4 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, Elon Musk's company Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) successfully launched its Falcon 9 rocket along with the unmanned Dragon capsule toward the International Space Station. The historic event marks the first time a private company has sent a spacecraft to the space station. But it's not a complete success just yet. The capsule will attempt to dock with the outpost Friday morning and is currently partaking in flyby tests before arriving at the station. Dragon is due to deliver food, supplies, and science experiments to the orbiting laboratory as a test mission for NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program.

Introducing the Leap (The Week)

You will soon be able to control your computer with Minority Report-style gestures thanks to a Lego-sized motion sensor from startup company Leap Motion. Yes, this sounds like Microsoft's Kinect device, but the Leap goes even further because it "can sense motion down to the most subtle movements of a finger." The company reports that the device is 200 times more sensitive than anything else on the market. Scheduled to ship this winter, the Leap plugs right into your computer's USB port and will be priced at a very affordable $69.99.

Anticancer Protein Easily Extracted from Soybeans (Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry)

It's been well documented for some time that the incidence of certain common cancers of the alimentary system (i.e., the body structures involved in preparing food for absorption into the body and excretion of waste products) is much lower in people from Japan than those from North America and Western Europe. And it turns out that the importance of the humble soybean to Japanese diets may be the reason for the lower rates of these cancers. Now, a group of plant scientists at the University of Missouri has demonstrated that copious amounts of the natural anticancer drug known as the Bowman-Birk Protease Inhibitor (BBI) can be obtained simply by soaking soybeans in warm water. While there's more testing to be done, the scientists think this method could be exploited as a simplified alternative for the preparation of BBI concentrate, which is being used as a cancer chemoprotective agent.


Precipitate Completes its Prospectus Offering and Lists on the TSX Venture Stock Exchange

Posted: 24 May 2012 09:26 AM PDT

 Vancouver, British Columbia. Precipitate Gold Corp. (the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has completed its initial public offering ("IPO") of 5,500,000 Shares at a price of $0.40 per share for aggregate gross proceeds of $2,200,000.

The TSX Venture Exchange (the "TSXV") has accepted the Company's listing application, and the Company's common shares will commence trading on the TSXV at the opening on Tuesday, May 29, 2012 (the "Listing Date") under the trading symbol "PRG".

Wolverton Securities Ltd. (the "Agent") assisted the Company in selling the IPO. As consideration, the Agent and its sub-agents received a cash commission of $176,000 (8% of the gross proceeds of the IPO) and options to acquire an aggregate of 440,000 shares, exercisable at $0.40 per share for a period of 24 months expiring May 29, 2014. The Agent also received a corporate finance fee of $40,000 (plus HST) and reimbursement of its expenses as incurred.

The Company has also issued 5,068,827 common shares (the "Strategic Shares") to Strategic Metals Ltd. ("Strategic") pursuant to a mineral property option agreement. 1,222,460 of the Strategic Shares are subject to a two year hold period under TSXV policies (20% being released on the Listing Date and an additional 20% being released every six months thereafter). The balance of 3,846,367 Strategic Shares (the "Strategic Escrow Shares") are subject to a three year Value Security Escrow Agreement dated May 24, 2012 among the Company, Equity Financial Trust Company ("EFTC") and Strategic (the "Value Security Escrow Agreement"). In accordance with National Instrument 62-103 The Early Warning System and Related Take Over Bids and Insider Reporting Issues, Strategic advises it holds 19.9% of the Company's issued and outstanding voting shares, that it has filed an early warning report (a copy of which can be viewed on SEDAR), and that it has the right to participate in future financings of the Company so as to maintain its percentage equity interest.

The Company presently has 25,471,493 common shares issued and outstanding of which 2,665,000 common shares are subject to escrow restrictions set out in an Escrow Agreement dated February 1, 2012 among the Company, EFTC and certain principals of the Company, to be released as to 10% on the Listing Date and 15% every six months thereafter; and of which 3,846,367 Strategic Escrow Shares are subject to the Value Security Escrow Agreement.

Complete details of the IPO and the Company's business are as set out in the Company's IPO Prospectus dated March 30, 2012 and filed on SEDAR.

The Company's board of directors consists of Darcy W. Krohman (CEO, President, Secretary), Adrian W. Fleming, Darryl S. Cardey, Gary R. Freeman and Quinton T. Hennigh. Hallein J. Darby is the Company's CFO, and Michael P. Moore is the Company's Vice President of Exploration.

The Company announces that it has granted an aggregate of 1,930,000 incentive stock options to directors, key employees and consultants, which will become effective on the Listing Date, exercisable at $0.40 per share for a period of five years.

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD

Darcy W. Krohman

Darcy W. Krohman 
CEO, President, Secretary and Director

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
Telephone: 1-604-558-0335
Facsimile: 1-604-558-1590
Website: www.precipitategold.com
Contact: Darcy W. Krohman

May 24, 2012 (Precipitate Gold Corp)

http://www.precipitategold.com/s/news.asp?ReportID=526896

Comment:  The late David Coffin, our good friend and colleague, was instrumental in the development of Precipitate Gold.  We have high hopes for this new issue operating in the Yukon and northern B.C.  We plan to have more coverage of Precipitate in the next full Vulture Bargain Roundup update scheduled for the first week of June. 

 Disclosure:  Precipitate Gold is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI). Members of the GGR team may hold long positions in PRG.V. The editor of GGR participated in a private placement for Precipitate Gold and holds a long position at the time of publication.   


No Bad Call Goes Unrewarded

Posted: 24 May 2012 09:18 AM PDT

Dave Gonigam – May 24, 2012

  • "No good deed goes unpunished," the saying goes. At the Fed, no bad call goes unrewarded…
  • Oil hovers near $90: Byron King with a compelling chart that reveals why it can't go much lower (not for long, anyway)
  • From China… to the United States… to Albania: Niall Ferguson's shocking perspective on the state of U.S. education
  • Ritholtz on why J.P. Morgan's bad trade is like a cockroach… a reason to be thankful for zero-tolerance school principals… your last chance for discounted early-bird Vancouver registration… and more!

It's an ironclad law of government: The bigger you screw up, the bigger budget you get.

The agencies that failed to "connect the dots" before Sept. 11 were rewarded with more manpower, more resources, more authority. Heck, entire new agencies were created. There's even an "Office of the Director of National Intelligence" to hypothetically oversee the other 16 intelligence agencies.

We see this morning that what holds for government also holds true for that peculiar public-private mongrel known as central banking.

The Federal Reserve has issued its 2012 budget. At $4.7 billion, it is 50% larger than it was in 2005.

That was the year Ben Bernanke told us with such confidence that "We've never had a decline in housing prices on a nationwide basis."

Such a colossal miscalculation… and all the assorted fallout in the credit markets and the economy… turns out to merit a 50% budget increase in the ensuing years.

Worse, the Fed's income from assorted fees — check processing and the like — hasn't kept pace with expenses. So the net cost of running the Fed has more than doubled.

By year's end, the Fed's Board of Governors alone will have grown its head count by 25% since the start of the crisis, to more than 2,400.

True, the Fed's budget doesn't come from federal tax revenue. Well, not directly. Its operations are funded by the interest it earns on its portfolio of Treasuries, mortgage securities, etc. — plus any capital gains from the sale of those instruments.

But what's a U.S. Treasury, other than a claim on the confiscated future production of U.S. income earners?

If they don't get you one way, they get you another…

Major U.S. stock indexes are fluctuating today after a rally late yesterday that managed to reverse hefty losses. Thus the S&P is holding the line on 1,300 with a comfortable margin.

Among the worldwide data in traders' sights today…

  • Chinese manufacturing: "Flash PMI" — a preliminary reading for May — turned a seventh straight monthly number showing contraction
  • German and French manufacturing: Both sank deeper into contraction territory
  • U.S. first-time unemployment claims: Nearly flat at 370,000 last week — around where it's been all month
  • U.S. durable goods orders: Up 0.2% in April. But if you back out transportation, it fell 0.6%.

Most worrisome about the "durables" report: Business orders for computers, machinery and other capital goods shrank for a second straight month.

Eurozone leaders have held a summit amid a raging credit crisis… and put off making any decisions till next month.

There were the expected noises about wanting Greece to stay in the eurozone, but only if the government "lives up to its obligations" — that is keeps up its payments to the French and German banks that foolishly bought Greek bonds. But that was it.

[Ed. Note: It is our strict policy at The 5 to avoid using the trendy and hideous neologism "Grexit" to describe a potential Greek departure from the eurozone. You're welcome.]

"What should happen," says the Gloom Boom & Doom Report's Marc Faber, "is that Greece exit the eurozone right away and default on all its obligations to foreigners."

"If they have obligations to foreigners," he adds, "it's the mistake of bureaucrats in Brussels."

Greece, he suggests, is only further along the path that all European governments are:
"I have to laugh each time people talk about austerity. The fact is from 2000 up to 2011, government spending in the eurozone has risen by 76%. Where's the austerity?"

"Government spending as a percentage of the economy has grown from 44% to 49%. There has been no austerity."

Precious metals are slowly climbing back from their most recent beat-down. Gold is at $1,556. An ounce of silver fetches $28.24.

"The lesson we learn about cockroaches is that there's never just one," says Barry Ritholtz — applying this wisdom to J.P. Morgan Chase.

In theory, JPM lost $2 billion from its bad derivatives bet run from London. "The question is, 'Is this $2 billion loss going to be $3 billion, $4 billion or $5 billion?' I don't know," he tells Yahoo Finance.

Thus has Mr. Ritholtz's firm cut its JPM exposure; he loaded up early this year because it was the "best house in a not great neighborhood," and indeed he was able to book a profit even after the sell-off.

"The reason to own banks is that they used to be a safe, money making machine," he adds. "The old joke was 'Borrow at 3%, lend at 6%, be on the golf course at 4 o'clock.' That's how bankers lived. It was a boring, highly profitable business. And now these banks seem to think they're hedge funds."

Oil is stabilizing after falling below $90 yesterday. At last check, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate fetches $90.64.

Brent crude — a better reflection of what most of the world pays — is at $106.50.

"Never say never, but in my view, the oil price shouldn't go down much from here," ventures Byron King.

The reason: Oil producers can't afford to let it fall much further. To illustrate, here's a chart prepared by the chief economist at the French oil giant Total:

"Basically," Byron explains, "the chart describes the oil price level that a series of major producers require in order to balance their national budgets."

"The red-shaded region at the bottom is the 'break-even cost' for producers (as estimated by Total). That is, the red shading reflects how much it costs to lift barrels of crude oil out of the ground."

"As you can see from the chart, many producers lift oil at an overall cost of $10-20 per barrel. Even the major international players (the blue shading on the right) are in the $40 per barrel average for production.

"But take a look at that 'budget break-even' line — the yellow shading. That's the price at which a list of petro players has to sell oil in order to fund their national spending. Keep in mind that all of the countries on the list — from Qatar to Venezuela — rely on oil sales for the vast majority of their national income.

"Without a strong oil price," Byron concludes, "these countries will have bread lines and riots." And they account for 40% of total world crude output.

"WTI at $90 and Brent hovering over $100 is the threshold of financial pain for the world's largest oil-producing nations."

"I can't think of a single bigger thing for us to worry about," says Harvard historian Niall Ferguson, with an eye toward the biggest of big pictures.

Western nations have lost their edge when it comes to education, he says. Education is one of the six "killer apps" Ferguson believes lay behind the West's ascendance — a theme he explores in depth in Civilization — his current PBS documentary series and its accompanying book.

"The U.S. has a disadvantage," he said at a recent conference, "in that a substantial number of our potentially talented young people who had the misfortune to live in poor ZIP codes are not being educated to nearly a high enough standard in basic math and science."

Result? Mainland China ranks No. 1 in math and science, judging by standardized tests on students up to age 15. The gap between China and the United States is as wide as that between the United States and Albania.

Professor Ferguson will explore some unexpected investment implications during what's sure to be a rousing session at the Agora Financial Investment Symposium, which starts only two months from today — July 24-27.

The aforementioned Dr. Faber will be there. So will Barry Ritholtz. Along with Byron King and the rest of the Agora Financial editors.

We'll have return engagements with the colorful oil field geologist Marcio Mello and the always-provocative venture capitalist Juan Enriquez. Small-cap resource guru Rick Rule will lead his enlightening and entertaining breakfast sessions. By the time you leave, you'll have no shortage of ideas to consider and act on.

[Ed. Note: We're still offering an early-bird registration discount... but not for long. The fee goes up as of 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.

At last check, fewer than 300 seats remain. For each of the last three years, we've had to turn people away from this event. We'd hate to see that happen to you.

In addition, our block of rooms at the host hotel, the Fairmont Hotel Vancouver, is filling up quickly. Here again, time is of the essence.

We look forward to seeing you in Vancouver, July 24-27. For a full speaker lineup and registration details, please review your invitation here.]

"You need to thank Principal Katie Pennington," writes a reader who caught our item about the 64 high-school seniors suspended on their last day for riding bicycles to class.

"Do you really think that anything more than a handful of these kids who went through Principal Pennington's P.C. bicycle shenanigans will end up being nanny-state types as adults after experiencing this?"

"If so, maybe you should go ask that 10-year-old girl in the yellow dress who is currently doing 10-20 breaking rocks in Leavenworth for selling lemonade."

"The North Dakota oil field known as the Bakken had a trade show in Bismarck Tuesday and Wednesday for oil field vendors," a reader writes with an on-site report.

"Being a curious person, I thought to take a couple of hours to walk through. Imagine my surprise when told I needed to be registered — and my greater surprise to know that registration was $700 per person — $600 if preregistered."

"A minimum of 4,000 registered — gives new meaning to Bakken Gold.' Ah, then it gets better, as about 300 vendors paid $3,500 for their 10'x10' space. Looks like $3.5 million for a two-day show — much better than drilling for oil!"

The 5: Amen… but that too illustrates Byron King's bigger point about the new fortunes being created in the Bakken, the Eagle Ford and other shale plays. They're feeding all manner of add-on industries in formerly down-and-out communities.

Whether it's new restaurants, new housing or a $3.5 million trade show, it's creating new streams of money. And it's not too late to claim some of it for yourself.

"Read your comments from the reader regarding the Drudge Report and was a bit stunned," says yet another reader rising to The 5's defense.

"As a fairly conservative individual and probably more of a libertarian than anything, the views of The 5 are fairly close to my own, but not always.

"That is part of why I value it. You do throw me come curveballs and I have to think them through. It causes me to constantly see a different view of the road and hopefully navigate it better. Keep up the good work!"

"I have been reading The 5 for several years and it hadn't dawned on me why I liked it so much until lately when I've been reading the latest comments about no spin, no bias and open reporting…quite refreshing!!"

"I'm an 85-year-old veteran of World War II, and I served in the military for many years. We had two sayings that were relevant then as well as now."

"They are: 'If in danger, if in doubt, run in circles, leap and shout.' The other: 'Hands on ears please, now pull your head out of your ass.'"

"I am daily reader of The 5 and appreciate and thank you for the truths you report, no matter your sources."

"What, you [also] quote left-wing media?" writes a reader with tongue firmly in cheek. "I am appalled! How can you quote this brainwashing propaganda nonsense?"

"Are you working for Soros? You just can't rely on anyone these days."

The 5: The only thing that would have made this email funnier is if the guy who got this discussion going in the first place would write back… to accuse us of being in the pay of the Koch brothers!

Cheers,

Dave Gonigam
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. "Spread over 2,700 acres of rolling farmland, beach and forest, Rancho Santana is a collection of more than 50 homes and 25 villas," says an article in The Nicaragua Dispatch, the country's English-language daily.

"It has as a mini-grocery market, a fully functioning clubhouse, the best restaurant in Tola (and one of the best in Nicaragua) and the first modern conference center on the Pacific coast."

"Rancho Santana," says guest services manager Matt Prezzano, "is very unique in that it was one of the first significant tourism-investment projects made by foreigners in the Republic of Nicaragua. They helped put Nicaragua tourism on the map through various press publications and have been marketing Nicaragua tourism for over 12 years."

We're still in the planning stages for the second iteration of the Rancho Santana Sessions, coming up Dec. 5-9, 2012. As we line up topics and speakers, we'll keep you posted…


The Top Five Gold Commentators

Posted: 24 May 2012 08:49 AM PDT

Dear CIGAs,

I would like to send a special thanks to Will Bancroft of www.RealAsset.co.uk for the kind words.

The Top Five Gold Commentators Posted MAR 20 2012 by WILL BANCROFT

There are a range of commentators on the precious metals but there is a golden elite whose insights, opinions and research should

Continue reading The Top Five Gold Commentators


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quiet Option Expiration With a Little Gut Check

Posted: 24 May 2012 08:31 AM PDT


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Mixed

Posted: 24 May 2012 08:24 AM PDT

Gold fell $8.87 to $1552.33 at about 4AM EST before it rebounded to $1577.70 at about 9AM EST, but it then fell to as low as $1551.69 in afternoon New York trade and ended with loss of 0.11%. Silver slipped to as low as $27.624 before it bounced back to $28.533 and then also fell back off, but it still ended with a gain of 1.58%.


Cash is the New Bubble-Dana Meador--24.May.2012

Posted: 24 May 2012 08:19 AM PDT

www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com presents:

Dana Meador is back with FSN today to discuss why your bank is insolvent and what the issue of collateral means in this day-and-age. With JP Morgan front and center of the economic meltdown, you should be aware that the little JP blowup is indicative of a much bigger problem that a lot of people are not aware of.  If you are not aware, cash is the new bubble; it is where everybody has parked their money. What are the banks doing with the cash sitting in accounts everywhere? 

Go to www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com for the latest info on the Economy, Markets and Precious Metals.


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

GoldSeek.com Radio Silver Nugget: CEO of Huldra Silver - Ryan Sharp & Chris Waltzek

Posted: 24 May 2012 08:14 AM PDT

GoldSeek.com Radio Silver Nugget: CEO of Huldra Silver | TSX-V: HDA - Ryan Sharp & Chris Waltzek


Uncivilized Investing

Posted: 24 May 2012 07:30 AM PDT

Uncivilized times call for uncivilized investments.

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's partner in crime at Berkshire Hathaway, told CNBC recently, "I think gold is a great thing to sew into your garments if you're a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939, but I think civilized people don't buy gold. They invest in productive businesses."

In a way, Munger is correct. Gold is uncivilized in the sense that it functions best when civilization functions worst. The more uncivilized a society becomes, the more civilized gold becomes.

So the easiest way to dismiss this statement is to say that maybe it's 1939 again and maybe this time "we're all Jewish families in Vienna." But let's not let Charlie off the hook so easily. Instead, let's "unpack it," in the words of our tutors at St John's College in Santa Fe, New Mexico. To 'unpack it' we need to focus on two key words in Charlie's statement: "productive" and "civilized."

Charlie might be right if the world were, indeed, civilized. But maybe the modern world isn't as civilized as he thinks. Part of what made the world so uncivilized in 1939 was unsound money. The abandonment of the classical gold standard in 1914 made the expansion of the Warfare state possible. The equally unsound system that emerged from World War I — including the Treaty of Versailles — virtually guaranteed that monetary and fiscal instability would lead to political instability. Radical parties like the Nazis flourished.

Gold, on the other hand, is sound money. You are not buying it for a capital gain. You are buying it, by our reckoning, as a way of preserving purchasing power. You extract paper from the fiat money system and turn it into something (bullion) you can later exchange for whatever currency emerges when the financial system becomes more civilized.

Interestingly, for more than a decade Berkshire has underperformed gold — the investment asset Buffett recently called "forever unproductive."

Rolling 10-Year Investment Return on Gold vs. Rolling 10-Year Investment Return on Berkshire Hathaway

Since 1997, Berkshire's shares have declined relative to this forever unproductive asset. The nearby chart depicts the trailing 10-year return of gold since 2007. Thus, the first data point on this chart shows the return an investor would have received from buying gold or Berkshire Hathaway in 1997. Moving across the chart to the right shows subsequent 10-year time frames. Bottom line: Based on a 10-year holding period, there has not been a single moment since late 1997 what an investor would have been better off buying Berkshire Hathaway instead of gold.

No wonder Charlie is so cranky!

This lengthy underperformance by Berkshire may explain Buffett's and Munger's very vocal and public hostility toward gold. Or maybe that's just a function of both men living most of their adult lives in an era where the monetary system was not disintegrating. They are unable to imagine it.

But the chart above isn't an indictment of the investment acumen of Buffett and Munger. It's an indictment of the world's fiat monetary system! A civilized society with civilized people has sound money. An economy with sound money has price stability. This stability allows for long-term planning and investment. This stability rewards investors for identifying which businesses are the most productive and efficient users of shareholder capital.

For these exact reasons, William McKinley campaigned for President in 1896 and again in 1900 as a champion of the gold standard. He won…twice. But just 12 years after his assassination in 1901, the Era of Incivility began: The Federal Reserve came into being. Just 20 years after that, FDR confiscated all privately held gold. And 38 years after that, Nixon cut the dollar's last remaining ties to gold, thereby establishing today's very uncivilized "fiat money" system.

William McKinley Campaign Poster

In an uncivilized society, where the value of your labor is stolen through inflation (made possible by an unsound money system) long-term planning and investment become much more difficult, if not impossible.

If you accept that we live in civilized monetary times where productive labor is actually rewarded, your brain has been tranquilized by the Big Lie of our times. Munger wants you right where you are. The less you think about how uncivilized the current monetary system is, the less likely you are to question it or disrupt it (which would be inconvenient for Charlie).

But if you live an era that subverts accurate valuation of productive businesses — an era that subverts the productivity of the economy itself by encouraging debt and consumption, owning gold seems prudent, not wacky.

Uncivilized times call for uncivilized investments.

Regards,

Dan Denning
for The Daily Reckoning

Uncivilized Investing originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, published by Agora Financial provides over 400,000 global readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. Recently Agora Financial released a video titled "What Causes Gas Price to Increase?".


Gold Correction to End above 1600

Posted: 24 May 2012 06:44 AM PDT

courtesy of DailyFX.com May 24, 2012 07:53 AM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT “Gold has broken below a major trendline (and channel) that extends off of lows in 2008, 2010, and 2011. Focus is now on the December low at 1522.50 and then support from May 2011 and resistance from December 2010 at 1430/60.” Near term, the rally from the low is impulsive. Therefore, expect an assault on trendline resistance above 1600 before the trend turns down once more. LEVELS: 1625 1600 1522.50 1477 1462...


Commodities Rise Despite Dismal Chinese, Eurozone PMIs - Why?

Posted: 24 May 2012 06:44 AM PDT

courtesy of DailyFX.com May 24, 2012 03:00 AM Commodity prices are on the upswing along with a recovery in stocks and softer US Dollar despite dismal Chinese and Eurozone PMI readings. What’s going on? Talking Points [LIST] [*]Crude Oil, Copper Follow Shares Higher as Risk Appetite Corrects [*]Gold and Silver Find Support on Waning Haven Demand for US Dollar [/LIST] Risk appetite trends appear to be shrugging off softer Chinese and Eurozone PMI figures, with European shares on the upswing and growth-geared crude oil and copper prices following suit. Meanwhile, waning haven demand is pressuring the US Dollar, allowing an upside correction for anti-fiat gold and silver prices. S&P 500 stock index futures have erased earlier losses and now trade firmly in positive territory ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, reinforcing the likelihood of a recovery across the sentiment landscape as North America comes online. While the chipper mood is undoubtedly running counter to e...


Investing in Gold as World Economies Falter

Posted: 24 May 2012 06:36 AM PDT

Are you a civilized individual or a Neanderthal? Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger provides a simple litmus test… "Civilized people don't buy gold," says Munger.

There you have it. If you possess absolutely no gold, other than maybe a tooth filling, you are civilized. Congratulations!

If, however, you've stashed a few Krugerrands under your mattress, we've got some bad news for you. You are hopelessly uncivilized — a financial Neanderthal, deserving of pity from your civilized counterparts.

"I think gold is a great thing to sew into your garments if you're a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939," Munger remarked recently, "but I think civilized people don't buy gold. They invest in productive businesses."

Yes, that's right, Charlie. Civilized people invest in productive businesses…until an uncivilized government decides to steal it, or merely tax and regulate it into oblivion. Some Jews in Vienna in 1939 operated extremely productive businesses. Unfortunately, they could not stitch any of those into their garments.

In other words, Charlie, civilized investment strategies function in civilized societies. In uncivilized societies, gold is usually a better bet. Or to put it another way, as civilizations lose their civility, share prices fall and gold soars…which is exactly what has been happening here in our beloved US of A.

During the last decade and a half, the investment return of Berkshire Hathaway, perhaps the most civilized of American stocks, has trailed far behind that of gold. Civilized folks like Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett consider that 15-year trend a fluke. Maybe so. Or maybe this trend is a warning that America is becoming a bit less civilized — a bit less friendly to productive businesses.

Notwithstanding this trend, civilized folks know better. They shun gold in order to invest in the shares of overhyped social media companies, highly leveraged banks, bonds of bankrupt governments and complex derivatives that are impossible to value precisely… until they go to zero… at which point their precise value is known.

That, Dear Reader, is civilized!

But there is one additional echelon: the über-civilized investor. Über-civilized investors shun gold to invest in über-complex derivatives. These are the folks like Warren Buffett who do not merely shun gold, but also belittle it very publicly while loading up on highly leveraged finance companies that are loaded up on complex financial derivatives.

Often, these banks are run by über-über-civilized investors — the kinds of guys who do not merely load up on complex derivatives, they load up on complex derivatives linked to the bonds of bankrupt governments. Then they utilize a "risk control" methodology that has a perfect record of failing to control risk.

You just can't get any more civilized than that.

Eric Fry
for The Daily Reckoning

Investing in Gold as World Economies Falter originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, published by Agora Financial provides over 400,000 global readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. Recently Agora Financial released a video titled "What Causes Gas Price to Increase?".


James Turk: Only One Defense Against Fiat Currency — Dump It For Gold

Posted: 24 May 2012 06:35 AM PDT

"The other standout is the price action in the precious metal equities. There are very deep pockets buying everything in sight. " ...


LGMR: Gold & Silver Rally with Stocks, Euro Hits 23-Month Low, as "Grexit" Planning Begins

Posted: 24 May 2012 06:18 AM PDT

London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault Thurs 24 May, 08:10 EST The WHOLESALE PRICE of gold investment bars rose 2.0% from yesterday's low to reach $1569 per ounce in London Thursday morning, recovering from $1535 for the fourth time since gold hit all-time peaks above $1900 in late-summer 2011. European stock markets also rose from new 2012 lows, while commodities halted their plunge and the silver price rallied 3.4% to trade back above $28 per ounce. The Euro currency also bounced after slipping to $1.2520 – a new 23-month low. Raising the odds of a Greek exit from the Eurozone to 50-75% by 2014, "We assume Grexit occurs on Jan. 1 2013," says Citigroup economist Michael Saunders in a new report. Citi's base scenario sees "Greece staying in the European Union and receiving external loan support" – an idea mooted by German weekly magazine Der Spiegel ahead of Wednesday night's "informal" summit of EU leaders. After the meeting Herman Van Rompuy, president...


Greek Exit Date Via Citicorp – Jan. 1st 2013

Posted: 24 May 2012 05:47 AM PDT

Well Citi is putting out Jan. 1st 2013 as the Greek exit date. I guess Jan. 2nd 2013 is when we should expect a big gold jump…

See article here.


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